De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 7 maart: werkrapport Twee Zittingen
De Twee Zittingen zijn nu goed onderweg. Premier Li Qiang heeft zijn werkrapport uitgesproken afgelopen woensdag. Formeel is Li het hoofd van de regering onder een ceremoniële president Xi, dus het Nationale Volkscongres is zijn show. In de praktijk is deze ceremoniële president ook de baas van de Chinese Communistische Partij die boven de grondwet staat en is de premier vooral druk met economisch beleid.
Economisch beleid neemt dan ook het grootste deel van zijn werkrapport in. Na de opening die wijst op de uitdagingen in de wereld, volgen de doelcijfers die wel al verwachtten – scroll omlaag voor het plaatje van Caixin met de details. Het „streven naar vooruitgang in stabiliteit, met vooruitgang stabiliteit bevorderen” volgde.
De sectie die volgde, ging over de taken van de overheid in 2025. Deze lijst van 10 punten was grotendeels hetzelfde als de lijst met 9 punten die uit de Centrale Conferentie voor Economisch Werk (CEWC) van afgelopen december kwam. Zie mijn nieuwsbrief van 13 december voor de details daarvan. De derde taak is nieuw en sommigen zijn iets anders verwoord. Nog altijd noemenswaardig is consumptie op één.
„Consumptie krachtig stimuleren en investeringsrendement verbeteren en binnenlandse vraag alomvattend vergroten.”（大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。）
„In lijn met lokale omstandigheden Nieuwsoortige Productiekrachten ontwikkelen, de constructie van een modern industrieel systeem versnellen.” （因地制宜发展新质生产力，加快建设现代化产业体系。） [yīn dì zhì yí 因地制宜 werd graag door Mao gebruikt, raadpleeg F. Schurmann]
„De implementatie verdiepen van de strategie van het land revitaliseren door wetenschap, de effectiviteit van het nationale innovatiesysteem verhogen.”（深入实施科教兴国战略，提升国家创新体系整体效能。） [nieuw, kējiàoxīngguó zhànlüè 施科教兴国战略 verwijst naar een strategie door Jiang Zemin gelanceerd in de jaren negentig]
„Bevorderen van het versneld uitvoeren van toonaangevende hervormingsmaatregelen, het effect benutten van de leidende rol van hervorming van het economisch systeem.” （推动标志性改革举措加快落地，更好发挥经济体制改
革牵引作用。）
„Hoogmatige opening naar de buitenwereld vergroten, actie buitenlandse handel en investering stabiliseren.” （扩大高水平对外开放，积极稳外贸稳外资。）
„Effectief voorkomen en oplossen van risico’s op belangrijke terreinen, stevig beschermen tegen systemische risico’s.” （有效防范化解重点领域风险，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险底线。）
„Met kracht het ‘Drie Ruralen’-werk [landbouw, platteland, boeren] oppakken, verdiepen van de bevordering van revitalisatie van dorpen.”（着力抓好“三农”工作，深入推进乡村全面振兴。）
„Bevorderen van nieuwe verstedelijking en gecoördineerde regionale ontwikkeling, het ruimtelijk ontwikkelingspatroon verder optimaliseren.” （推进新型城镇化和区域协调发展，进一步优化发展空间格局。）
„Gecoördineerd bevorderen van CO2-verlaging, vermindering van vervuiling en groene groei, versnellen van de alomvattende groene transitie van economische en sociale ontwikkeling.” （协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长，加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型。）
„Inspanningen vergroten om de bestaansmiddelen van de bevolking te garanderen en verbeteren, verhogen van de effectiviteit van social governance.” （加大保障和改善民生力度，提升社会治理效能。）
Taken 7 en 8 zijn veranderd t.o.v. de CEWC, met nu een duidelijke scheiding tussen platteland en stad. Platteland (7) komt voor Stad (8), wat aangeeft hoe belangrijk dat nog is voor China – de grootste uitdaging voor ontsnappen ‘middle income trap’ zit daar.
Belangrijk voor de Europese industrie is punt twee: nieuwe productieve krachten – later kondigt Li ook meer geld aan voor innovatie. Verder is duidelijk uit de opening waar de focus ligt: binnenlandse economische uitdagingen en buitenlandse geopolitieke uitdagingen. Het stukje over Taiwan valt mee.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
ASML to build reuse-and-repair centre in Beijing despite US-China tech tensions – SCMP 🇳🇱
China’s special envoy for European affairs Lú Shāyě 卢沙野 ‘appalled’ by Trump’s treatment of Europe – SCMP: ‘adding that a peace deal for Ukraine should not be determined only by the US and Russia.’ 🇪🇺
中国现代国际关系研究院(CICIR)副院长张健：“想做美国附庸而不得”的欧洲，其实还有另一条路可走 – “中国日报中国观察智库”公众号 🇪🇺
‘Interesting take by an obscure [Chinese] “think tank analyst” with a large social media following, arguing that: “China's position is clear: learning to engage with Special Envoy Lu Shaye is a crucial lesson the [EU] must learn.” Bottom line: [China] is NOT courting the [EU]. […]’ –
European Parliament removes curbs on lawmaker meetings with Chinese officials – SCMP: ‘The recommendations were introduced in April 2023 as follow up to a sanctioning blitz in 2021’ 🇪🇺
Heel interessant wat er allemaal gebeurt.
Slight decline in imports and exports from China in 2024 – Eurostat: ‘China was the EU’s largest trade partner for imports (21.3% of all extra-EU imports) and the third-largest partner for exports (8.3% of all extra-EU exports).’ 🇪🇺
EU ambassador to China Jorge Toledo urges Beijing to stop building coal-fired power plants – The Guardian 🇪🇺
China has lifted some restrictions on German dairy product imports, German agriculture ministry says – Reuters: ‘restrictions […] over foot-and-mouth disease’ 🇩🇪
Thailand asks Germany to review policy to save China submarine deal – Nikkei Asia: ‘Thailand has formally asked Germany to reconsider its opposition to supplying the engine for a $369 million submarine the kingdom has agreed to buy from China’ 🇩🇪🇹🇭
Taiwan and Italy regulators sign aviation pact to boost flights – Taipei Times 🇮🇹
Twee Zittingen 两会
Handelsoorlog overschaduwt feestje van de tech-ceo’s op Chinees Volkscongres – FD
China blijft mikken op 5 procent economische groei, ondanks heffingen van Trump – Trouw
Chinese government ramps up stimulus to guard economy from changes ‘unseen in a century’ – Reuters: ‘“An increasingly complex and severe external environment may exert a greater impact on China in areas such as trade, science, and technology,” Li said.’
Xinhua Headlines: China opens ‘two sessions’ with commitment to high-quality development amid challenges – Xinhua: ‘While China’s economy has demonstrated resilience, challenges and problems such as insufficient domestic demand and external pressures persist.’
Xinhua Headlines: China unveils resilient growth target with strong policy support – Xinhua
Full-text & highlights of government work report – Beijing Scroll [NB: dit is een Xinhua-operatie op Substack]: ‘One notable statement in the government work report highlights the need to properly handle five key relationships in economic efforts, echoing the central theme of a recent article in Qiushi, a flagship magazine of the CPC Central Committee.’
Highlights of 2025 government work report – State Council Information Office
NPC: China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 makes tech and private sector appeal on ‘two sessions’ sidelines – SCMP: ‘In his discussions with Jiangsu deputies on Wednesday, Xi urged the province to lead in industrial innovation, regional cooperation, and common prosperity, emphasising Jiangsu’s role as an economic powerhouse.’
NPC: Xi Focus: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 urges Jiangsu to play major role in national development – Xinhua: ‘when taking part in a deliberation with his fellow lawmakers from Jiangsu’
CPPCC: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 calls for education overhaul to ramp up China’s tech ambitions – SCMP: ‘Xi noted that the education system should better integrate basic, higher and vocational education to adapt to the change of China’s demographic landscape in a modern world.’
CPPCC: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 visits political advisors, joins discussion at annual session – Xinhua: ‘political advisors from the China Democratic League, the China Association for Promoting Democracy, and the sector of education.’
Chinese leaders attend deliberations at annual NPC legislative session – Xinhua
Formeel is de premier het hoofd van de regering en Li Qiang brengt dan ook het werkrapport van de regering. Xi Jinping loopt echter ook rond. Welke sessies hij bijwoont en wat hij zegt, is belangrijk om te bepalen op welke delen van de beleidsplannen hij de nadruk wil leggen. Het Volksdagblad opent vandaag met de oproep voor onderwijs dat aansluit bij de wetenschappelijke en technische noden van China.
Q&A: What to know about whole-process people’s democracy in China – Xinhua: ‘While Western democracies often equate democracy with elections, China has developed a distinct model — whole-process people’s democracy — tailored to its national conditions and historical traditions.’
Profiles on gay dating apps Blued and Finka frozen during ‘Two Sessions’ political meetings – China Digital Times
economie
China sets growth target around 5% despite threat from US tariffs – FT: ‘some analysts said fiscal spending measures announced in the report fell short of market expectations, as a years-long property crisis continues to weigh on domestic consumption.’
‘Li set a budget deficit target of 4 per cent of GDP, up from 3 per cent in previous years and the highest figure in recent decades.’
China targets economic growth of around 5 pct in 2025 – Xinhua: ‘other key development goals for this year, including a surveyed urban unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, over 12 million new urban jobs, and an around 2 percent increase in the consumer price index.’
What’s ‘involution’ [nèijuǎn 内卷] and why is it worrying China’s policymakers? – CNA: ‘Also known as neijuan in Chinese, overcompetition was highlighted by Premier Li Qiang in the government’s annual work report.’ ’Cutthroat pricing and competition in the booming EV industry has led to heavy losses being felt on the ground.’
China aims to produce about 700 million tons of grain in the new year, higher than a goal of at least 650 million tons in previous years – Bloomberg: ‘comes as trade tensions between China and the US, a major grain supplier to the Asian country, are ratcheted up.’
China plans to reduce the amount of energy it uses to grow its gross domestic product by around 3% in 2025 – Bloomberg
China pledged to give city governments more say in how they buy unsold homes, as part of efforts to stem the unprecedented property decline – Bloomberg
China lowered its annual inflation target to around 2% for the first time in more than two decades – Bloomberg: ‘signals Chinese leaders are finally recognizing the deflationary pressures’ ‘However, the government’s growth forecast suggests an even weaker outlook for prices than its new consumer inflation target.’
China raised its general budget deficit to the highest level in more than three decades, as Beijing ramps up spending to counter the effects of rising US tariffs – Bloomberg: ‘the highest level since a major tax overhaul in 1994 that revamped the government budget’
China’s government to set up national venture capital guidance fund to strengthen innovative firms, NDRC announces – The Global Times: ‘will focus on cutting-edge areas including artificial intelligence (AI), quantum technology, hydrogen energy, and energy storage’
China’s government work report mentions ‘Embodied AI’, ‘6G’ for first time – Yicai Global: ‘called for the fostering of emerging sectors like embodied AI, 6G, bio-manufacturing and quantum technology, and the creation of a growth mechanism for future industries.’
Het nieuwe vijfjarenplan komt pas later dit jaar, maar zien we al de eerste contouren van de opvolger van Made in China 2025?
geopolitiek
China’s government will increase its official defence budget 7.2% this year – AP: ‘The Pentagon and many experts say China’s total spending on defense may be 40% higher or more because of items included under other budgets.’ ‘The boost is the same percentage as last year’
China Focus: China to increase defence budget by 7.2 percent in 2025, marking single-digit growth for 10th year – Xinhua: ‘Wu Qian, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense, recently accused the high military outlay of the United States of being “concerning” to the international community.’
China’s bigger diplomatic budget underlines global push, unlike Trump’s ‘America first’ – SCMP
China will work to firmly advance ‘reunification’ with Taiwan, premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 says – Reuters: ‘A senior Taiwan official familiar with the government’s China policy said Beijing’s tone on Taiwan hadn’t changed much, signalling Taiwan wasn’t at the top of its political agenda which had prioritised the economy and relations with the U.S.’ 🇹🇼
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ places greater emphasis on Taiwan integration, experts say – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼
两会受权发布丨李强在政府工作报告中谈港澳台工作 – 新华网：“我们要坚持贯彻新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略，坚持一个中国原则和“九二共识”，坚决反对“台独”分裂和外部势力干涉，推动两岸关系和平发展。完善促进两岸经济文化交流合作制度和政策，深化两岸融合发展，增进两岸同胞福祉，坚定不移推进祖国统一大业，携手共创民族复兴伟业。”
Ietsje sterker taalgebruik m.b.t. buitenlandse beïnvloeding en meer nadruk op beleid voor economische en culturele integratie – dat meer naar voren is gehaald. De frase over hereniging is meer naar achteren staat. Meer details in mijn LinkedIn-post.
Peking zal meer nadruk leggen op praktische integratie met Taiwan, misschien aangespoord door de KMT-TPP meerderheid in het parlement. Het is te druk met binnenlandse economische uitdagingen en buitenlandse druk.
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📉💥
China files revised dispute consultations request with US on tariff measures, WTO says – Reuters 🇺🇸
China’s exporters warn that US consumers will share their tariff pain – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
Trump and Xi’s competing agendas are headed toward a superpower clash not seen since the Cold War – WSJ: ‘[Xi’s] concern, according to people who consult with senior Chinese officials, was that as President Trump gears up for a showdown with Beijing, China could get isolated like Moscow during that era.’
‘To re-engineer the system, Turpin said, Trump’s trade team may “focus on getting relatively favorable deals with everyone else first and let the Chinese stew in their continuing economic depression.”’ 🇺🇸
Trump tells US Congress China can no longer ‘take advantage’ of weak US policies – SCMP 🇺🇸
Trump delays tariffs on many Canadian and Mexican imports for one month – POLITICO 🇨🇦🇲🇽
Mexico to review its tariffs with China, amid US pressure – SCMP 🇲🇽
TSMC 台積電 chair joins President Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) for impromptu press event, in bid to dispel concerns about US investment – Focus Taiwan: ‘the KMT legislative caucus issued a statement, criticizing the president for allowing a foreign government to undermine Taiwan’s “silicon shield,”’ 🇹🇼
Chip tester King Yuan 京元 mulling new US production line due to demand – Taipei Times 🇹🇼
Malaysia calls for broader intra-ASEAN trade to counter US tariff risks – Nikkei Asia 🇲🇾
Techoorlog 💽💥
Brussel presenteert reddingsplan Europese auto-industrie, maakt accuproductie troef – de Volkskrant 🇪🇺
Belgium is charting a path for the EU’s EV transition by tweaking taxes on company cars, a change that has turned the former laggard into a leader – Bloomberg 🇧🇪
Europe’s clampdown on Chinese EVs forces U-turn at state-owned GAC 广汽 – FT: ‘in talks to produce cars in either Spain, Poland, Italy or Hungary’ 🇪🇺
Xiaomi 小米 aims to take its EV sales overseas by 2027 – Caixin Global
Toyota releases its cheapest EV to date in China – Nikkei Asia 🇯🇵
ASML’s annual report says export curb worries hit customer spending in 2024 – Reuters 🇳🇱
Duitse megasteun voor chipsector was misschien zo gek nog niet – FD 🇩🇪
Mistral AI CEO drops AI Act criticisms, champions EU sovereignty, and pushes telecoms consolidation – Euractiv 🇫🇷🇪🇺
With an eye on AI, Huawei 华为 plans deeper expansion in Qatar – Caixin Global 🇶🇦
Alibaba 阿里巴巴’s stock surged the most in weeks after taking the wraps off a model that it claims performs as well as DeepSeek 深度求索 with just a fraction of the data required – Bloomberg
Chinese AI video generators unleash a flood of new nonconsensual porn – 404 Media
Singapore’s new national semiconductor R&D facility in Tampines to open in 2027 – CNA 🇸🇬
In an arms race for tech and talent, China blitzes as the US retreats – SCMP
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
America First is a contagious condition – The Economist’s The Telegram: ‘a striking number of governments share much of Mr Trump’s bleak analysis about the ways of the world.’
‘As Western donors walk away, they may not be replaced. An emissary from an emerging power recently asked a Chinese counterpart whether China would step up if America stops funding the UN. “Absolutely not,” came the reply.’
Dat iedereen voor ontwikkelingshulp nu naar China kijkt is voor Beijing al winst – NRC: „Daar komt bij dat internationale hulp niet populair is binnen China.”
Many Chinese see a Cultural Revolution in America – The New York Times
The US has spurred the Chinese chip industry – June Yoon in FT
AI promise and chip precariousness – Ben Thompson for Stratechery
Japanese government to double recipient countries of defence aid in check on China – Nikkei Asia 🇯🇵
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Review essay: Can Germany find a better China strategy? – Michael Laha for China Books Review: ‘When it comes to its China policy, Germany has been sitting in a dark room in which it dares not stand up, for fear of tripping over a piece of precious Chinese porcelain. Are they finally about to switch on the lights?’ 🇩🇪
Lees ook het interview in The Wire China met Janka Oertel van 17/12/2023, een van de gerecenseerde auteurs, over haar boek Ende der China-Illusion: „it’s a question of how we respond to the larger challenges that are actually there.”
Report: Eight years on, China’s repression of the Uyghurs remains dire – Rian Thum for the USHMM Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Rehabilitating DeepSeek 深度求索 – China Media Project: ‘Chinese propaganda on DeepSeek is subtler than mere censorship.’ ‘some [Western] companies are not even bothering to retrain the model.’
The secret campaign in China to save a woman chained by the neck – The New York Times: ‘I found an expansive web of intimidation at home and abroad, involving mass surveillance, censorship and detentions — a campaign that continues to this day.’
Opinion: My hope for the Tibetan people – The Dalai Lama in The Washington Post: ’For my part, right from the start, I have insisted to my people that our struggle adhere strictly to the principles of nonviolence.’ ‘I have tried my best, ceaselessly, to make openings for a negotiated settlement with Beijing.’
‘One clear lesson we know from history is this: If you keep people permanently unhappy, you cannot have a stable society.’
De Dalai Lama lijkt hier te zeggen tegen Peking: ik heb met mijn gezag de strijd vreedzaam gehouden en was bereid om te onderhandelen. Wanneer ik er binnenkort niet meer ben en jullie zo agressief doorgaan, dan kan het vervolg minder vreedzaam zijn.
Tibet is one of the most linguistically diverse places in the world. This is in danger of extinction – Gerald Roche for The Conversation
Podcasts
Tariffs and the Escalatory Cycle; China and the Fentanyl Crisis; TSMC Plans and Nvidia Scrutiny; Hard Times for Moutai – Sharp China
China’s Middle East strategy – GMFUS China Global 🍎
Ep. 18: Lijia Zhang on women’s stories – China Books Podcast 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
US charges 12 alleged spies in China’s freewheeling hacker-for-hire ecosystem – Wired: ‘a new set of criminal charges against a dozen Chinese men, including two government officials, accuses them of a vast espionage campaign that included breaching the US Treasury’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan’s foreign ministry confirms failed hacking attempts after US indicts Chinese hackers – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼
US State Department kills global air monitoring programme researchers say paid for itself – Wired: ‘Sixteen years ago, when the US embassy began sharing air quality data in Beijing, Twitter had not yet been blocked in China.’ 🇺🇸
China Coast Guard monitored Philippine supply run to grounded warship on shoal disputed by Beijing – Reuters 🇵🇭
Exclusive: Canada and US offered Uyghurs in Thailand asylum before deportation to China, sources say – Reuters: ‘but Bangkok took no action for fear of upsetting China, where they were covertly deported last week.’ 🇹🇭
Thailand’s deportation of Uyghurs was to avert China ‘retaliation’, vice foreign minister says – Reuters 🇹🇭
Thailand repatriates hundreds more Chinese scam-centre workers freed from Myanmar – AFP 🇹🇭🇲🇲
Large drone spotted near border with Papua New Guinea as Chinese warships passed nearby – Island Business: ‘Villagers spotted the drone flying about 6km inland of Mabaduan village on the PNG coast, in an area only a few kilometres from the Australian border.’ 🇵🇬🇦🇺
Chinese navy ships round out Australian circuit with sail near base hosting US submarine – SCMP 🇦🇺
China economie
China’s services activity grows modestly in February, Caixin PMI shows – Reuters
China’s Baidu 百度 to issue yuan-denominated bonds as US$600 million debt comes due – SCMP
China binnenland
Heavy online censorship of articles critical of animated Chinese blockbuster ‘Ne Zha 2’ 哪吒2 – China Digital Times: ‘the tide of public support for “Ne Zha 2” is more of a grassroots phenomenon’
China’s Two Sessions: Tibet lawmakers vow ‘high pressure’ against alleged separatists – AFP
In Depth: Investigators find Hefei’s metro system is riddled with graft – Caixin Global
Hong Kong
Shipping firms pull back from Hong Kong to skirt US-China risks – Reuters: ‘concerns that their ships could be commandeered by Chinese authorities or hit with U.S. sanctions in a conflict between Beijing and Washington.’ 🇺🇸
Hong Kong’s top court rules in favour of Tiananmen vigil trio in national security case – HKFP: ‘quashing their convictions over failing to comply with a national security police data demand.’
Hong Kong security chief condemns legal scholar for ‘undermining rule of law’ in op-ed on Yuen Long attack court ruling – HKFP: ‘Tang also extended his criticism to Ming Pao’
Jailed Hong Kong activist Tam Tak-chi 譚得志 loses landmark appeal at top court over uttering ‘seditious words’ – HKFP: ‘Tam’s appeal has far-reaching implications for sedition cases brought to the court under the Article 23 legislation.’
Hong Kong democrat Jimmy Lai 黎智英 finishes testifying in national security trial – Reuters
Hong Kong artist behind ‘Freedom’ graffiti charged again for criminal damage – HKFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan turns to companies in Ukraine for China contingency planning – Reuters: ‘The official said the government was working to connect companies in Taiwan with their counterparts in Ukraine in order to help Taiwan firms quickly boost their contingency planning.’ 🇺🇦
American senators question Taiwan opposition’s defence budget stance during Colby hearing – Focus Taiwan: ‘In response to the questions raised by the American senators, the KMT said in Taipei on Wednesday that the party supports “a moderate and effective increase” in the defense budget and military investment.’
‘There remains a US$20 billion backlog of weapons ordered by Taiwan that the U.S. has yet to deliver, including upgraded versions of the F-16 jet fighter.’
Weeks after crash, Air Force lifts Brave Eagle jet trainer flight ban – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan binnenland en economie
KMT caucus chair Fu Kun-chi 傅崐萁 comes under fire for failing to aid, report arrest of delegation member in Hong Kong – New Bloom: ‘The individual in question, a woman surnamed Chen, was wanted over a money laundering case from 25 years ago.’ ’Fu was traveling with his wife, Hsu Chen-wei, who is the Hualien county magistrate.’
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council confirms detention of Hualien delegation member in Hong Kong – Focus Taiwan
KMT caucus to propose referendums countering DPP – Taipei Times: ‘the party hoped the recall vote could be on the same day as voting on referendums, expected to be held on Aug. 23.’
Partijen in Taiwan proberen vaak referenda te organiseren over onderwerpen die hun achterban mobiliseren tijdens verkiezingen, om zo meer stemmen te garanderen.
Groups to hold events to promote recall campaigns against KMT – Taipei Times
DPP indigenous legislator says KMT recall unfairly targeting her – Taipei Times
Premier to face Legislature before budget, revenue allocation revotes – Focus Taiwan
Fire at nuclear plant extinguished, no safety concerns, regulator says – Focus Taiwan
Tainan to hold civil defence drill in late March – Focus Taiwan
Prosecutors indict 13 suspects in Taipei Buddhist cult murder case – Focus Taiwan
21 public hospitals in Taiwan offer extra clinics amid overcrowded ER – Focus Taiwan