De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 13 december: Centrale Conferentie voor Economisch Werk, Trump-proofing
Ik heb alsnog gewacht tot vrijdag om de nieuwsbrief uit te sturen. Op deze manier pakken we het einde van de Centrale Conferentie voor Economisch Werk nog mee. Het zorgt helaas wel voor een nogal lange, volle nieuwsbrief.
De readout van Xinhua van de Conferentie volgt in grote lijnen wat het Politburo al vaststelde afgelopen maandag. Lees mijn nieuwsbrief van dinsdag daarover. Grote bijeenkomsten worden altijd minutieus voorbereid door de partijtop. Er kunnen nog wel wat dingen verschoven worden op zulke momenten, maar ze dienen ook als middel om de deelnemers de al voorgekauwde inhoud zich eigen te laten maken.
Wat opvalt, is dat de negen zwaartepunten voor het economisch beleid van het volgend jaar openen met de noodzaak om „consumptie krachtig te stimuleren en efficiëntie van investeringen te verbeteren”. Dat is niet eerder gebeurd en geeft aan hoe belangrijk deze uitdaging inmiddels wordt gevonden. Reken maar dat de partijkaders lager in de boom dit signaal ontvangen. Voor meer details, scroll naar de relevantie sectie hieronder.
De vertrekkende regering Biden is in Washington ondertussen klaarblijkelijk bezig met het afmaken van hun Chinabeleid voor de onberekenbare Trump in het Witte Huis trekt. Eerder hadden we al de aangescherpte halfgeleidermaatregelen die ook een conceptuele sprong waren. Nu zijn er drie nieuwe berichten. Het eerste betreft simpelweg meer saaie importheffingen, in dit geval op ‘cleantech’ zoals bestanddelen voor zonnepanelen.
Het tweede gaat over een klaarblijkelijk verzoek – volgens bronnen van Reuters – aan de nationale veiligheidsbureaucratie om na te denken over de steeds nauwere banden tussen China, Rusland, Iran en Noord-Korea (door sommige haviken alvast omgedoopt tot ‘CRINK’). Dit leeft breder: ook NAVO-baas Mark Rutte noemde dit in zijn recente uitspraken.
Ten derde schrijf The New York Times over pogingen om de communicatiekanalen tussen Washington DC en Peking te verstevigen voordat sloper Trump weer chaos gaat veroorzaken. De vraag is hoe duurzaam dit zal blijken, aangezien we voormalige Trump-functionarissen expliciet hebben horen zeggen dat ze weinig waarde hechten aan de ‘nutteloze’ mid-level gesprekken met China. Alleen op hogere niveau’s zou er volgens hen wat zinnigs uitgewisseld worden. Ondertussen staat China ook niet stil: zie de sectie voor de stappen van beide kanten, want Peking gaat ook stevig. Dan moet Trump zelf nog beginnen!
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
EU to sanction China entities for role in supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine – SCMP: ‘Six China and Hong Kong-based companies will have their assets frozen while one Chinese citizen will face a visa ban’ 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Eerder al in het nieuws, maar nu hebben de ambassadeurs de plannen goedgekeurd voor formele afhandeling door de buitenlandministers.
Flying over Russia: Chinese airlines win and Europeans lose – POLITICO Europe: ‘at least five European airlines canceled flights to Asia’ ‘Chinese and other non-European carriers are increasing direct flights from Asia to European cities.’ 🇪🇺
Statement of the EU Delegation in China on the International Human Rights Day – Delegation of the European Union to the People’s Republic of China: ‘This year, we recognize China’s continued efforts in social welfare, including advances in healthcare and education.’ ‘However, serious concerns persist regarding civil, cultural, economic, social and political rights.’ 🇪🇺
French president Emmanuel Macron plans China visit in the new year amid talk of Beijing helping end Ukraine war – SCMP: ‘Emmanuel Bonne travelled this week to Beijing with a team of aides to lay the groundwork for a trip by the French leader.’ 🇫🇷🇺🇦
French president’s diplomatic adviser Emmanuel Bonne to come to China for China-France Strategic Dialogue – Xinhua 🇫🇷
China’s Wolf Warrior Lú Shāyě 卢沙野 heads home from France in shadow of controversy – SCMP 🇫🇷
Bulgarian who spied for Russia in UK discussed sale of drones to Chinese contact, court told – FT: ‘told former Wirecard chief operating officer Jan Marsalek in June 2022 that their “Chinese friends” were “asking if we can sell them some captured in Ukraine American Switchblade Drones”’ 🇬🇧🇺🇦
‘Chinese spy’ with close links to Prince Andrew banned from UK – The Times: ‘authorised the man to set up an international financial initiative known as the Eurasia Fund to engage with potential partners and investors in China.’ 🇬🇧
Two men deny spying in Britain for Hong Kong intelligence service – Reuters 🇬🇧
UK energy secretary Ed Miliband to visit China in early 2025 – POLITICO Europe 🇬🇧
China and Serbia eye stepped-up cooperation through extraditions – RFE/RL: ‘the Justice Ministry prepares to submit to parliament a draft extradition law with China’ 🇷🇸
Visiting Polish Senate deputy speaker Michał Kamiński calls on democratic partners to back Taiwan – Focus Taiwan: ‘He said Poland will prioritize security during its six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union.’ 🇵🇱
Lithuania moves to scrap double taxation with Taiwan – Taipei Times 🇱🇹
Czech Senate president Miloš Vystrčil calls for ‘concrete results’ from Taiwan ties – Focus Taiwan: ‘said that “just visiting each other is not enough” and called for ”real action”’ 🇨🇿
Senior CCP [security] official Chēn Wénqīng 陈文清 meets Serbian deputy PM Aleksandar Vulin in Beijing – Xinhua 🇷🇸
‘In Brazil, Slovak PM Fico backs Sino-Brazilian peace plan, again. […]’ – Finbarr Bermingham, Bluesky 🇸🇰🇺🇦
China-Russia ties: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells Medvedev Beijing seeks political solution in Ukraine – SCMP 🇷🇺🇺🇦
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets United Russia party chairman Medvedev – Xinhua: ‘As important forces promoting human progress, the two parties should further coordinate and cooperate closely, lead the global governance in the right direction, and pool the consensus of friendly political parties in countries around the world, especially in the Global South countries, to push the world forward in the right direction, Xi said.’
‘Medvedev delivered a signed letter to Xi from Russian President Vladimir Putin’ 🇷🇺
Centrale Conferentie voor Economisch Werk 📊🇨🇳
China leaders pledge ‘vigorous’ promotion of domestic consumption – FT: ‘also pledged to increase China’s fiscal deficit and issue more “ultra-long” special bonds at the two-day Central Economic Work Conference’
China holds Central Economic Work Conference to make plans for 2025 – Xinhua: ‘the meeting pointed out that the supporting conditions and fundamental trend for the Chinese economy's long-term sound development remain unchanged.’
2024 Central Economic Work Conference Readout –
Full text & analysis: China’s Central Economic Work Conference – Beijing Scroll (let op: Xinhua-medewerkers)
中央经济工作会议在北京举行 习近平发表重要讲话 – 新华网：“面对外部压力加大、内部困难增多的复杂严峻形势，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民，沉着应变、综合施策，经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展扎实推进，经济社会发展主要目标任务即将顺利完成。”
Voor volledige vertalingen, zie hierboven Sinocism (betaalmuur) of Beijing Scroll (gratis, maar Xinhua-exoprop). Mij valt in ieder geval op dat de Xinhua-readout begint met de internationale druk en binnenlandse problemen. Volgens de Conferentie is de belangrijkste van de laatste de ontoereikende binnenlandse vraag (“我国经济运行仍面临不少困难和挑战，主要是国内需求不足”). Daarna vroeg de Conferentie om de contradictie-synthese „streven naar vooruitgang in stabiliteit, met vooruitgang stabiliteit bevorderen” die ik in de nieuwsbrief van dinsdag als 1ste van 10 opgesomde ‘moeten’ identificeerde. Hierop volgen in deze readout drie korte ‘moeten’: het implementeren van (i) de ‘more proactive fiscal policy’ en van (ii) de ‘moderately loose monetary policy’ en (iii) al het beleid tot één vuist vormen.
De Conferentie stelde daarna de volgende negen zwaartepunten vast:
„consumptie krachtig stimuleren en efficiëntie van investeringen verbeteren”（大力提振消费、提高投资效益）[2e ‘moeten’ van maandag]
„met wetenschappelijke en technologische innovatie de ontwikkeling van Nieuwsoortige Productiekrachten leiden” （以科技创新引领新质生产力发展） [3e ‘moeten’]
„het effect benutten van de leidende rol van hervorming van het economisch systeem” （发挥经济体制改革牵引作用） [4e ‘moeten’]
„hoogmatige opening naar de buitenwereld verbreden” （扩大高水平对外开放） [5e ‘moeten’]
„effectief voorkomen en oplossen van risico’s op belangrijke terreinen” （有效防范化解重点领域风险） [6e ‘moeten’]
„gecoördineerd voortzetten van nieuwe verstedelijking en alomvattende plattelandsvernieuwing en bevorderen van geïntegreerde ontwikkeling van stad en platteland”（统筹推进新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，促进城乡融合发展。）
„intensiveren van de uitvoering van regionale strategieën” （加大区域战略实施力度） [8e ‘moeten’]
„in overleg bevorderen van CO2-verlaging, vervuiling-verminderen en groene groei-bevordering” （协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长） [9e ‘moeten’]
„inspanningen vergroten om de bestaansmiddelen van de bevolking te garanderen en verbeteren […] vasthouden en ontwikkelen van de ‘Fengqiao-ervaring’ voor het Nieuwe Tijdperk” （加大保障和改善民生力度〔……〕坚持和发展新时代“枫桥经验”） [10e ‘moeten’]
De consumptie-oproep is het eerste zwaartepunt. Dat is nieuw en ongewoon.
De eerste in de lijst van de Politburo-readout van maandag – vertaald in de nieuwsbrief van dinsdag – over de contradictie-synthese tussen stabiliteit en vooruitgang, is zoals genoemd gepromoveerd naar de preambule. De andere punten zijn ook allemaal eentje opgeschoven, beginnend dus met consumptie De uitzondering is punt 6. De zevende ‘moeten’ van het Polituro maandag ging specifiek over armoedebestrijding, dat is hier een breder verhaal geworden.
Het negende zwaartepunt noemt nu ook de Fengqiao-ervaring, een door Mao bewierookt voorbeeld van massasurveillance door elkaar dat onder Xi weer nieuw leven ingeblazen is. Dat wijst op zorgen over de sociale instabiliteit, zoals die in de afgelopen weken naar buiten kwam door afschuwelijke willekeurige aanvallen.
Xinhua Commentary: Underrating China’s resolve to sustain sound growth is way off beam – Xinhua: ‘the so-called China-decline narrative in the West’
A familiar sense of skepticism has reemerged in Chinese markets, with a fast fading stock rally signalling low expectations for a key economic policy meeting to deliver the kind of forceful growth stimulus pledged by authorities – Bloomberg
Trump-proofing 🇨🇳🇺🇸
Joe Biden to hit Chinese cleantech imports with more tariffs – FT: ‘The US trade representative’s office will on Wednesday announce a doubling to 50 per cent of the tariff on Chinese solar wafers and polysilicon, and hit tungsten products with a 25 per cent levy, according to people familiar with the plans.’ 🇺🇸
US president Biden pushes new Russia, Iran, Korea, China effort before Trump term – Reuters: ‘pushing U.S. national security agencies ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration to devise new strategies to tackle the risky, deepening ties’ 🇺🇸🇷🇺🇮🇷🇰🇵
Biden administration looks to reinforce US-China communication channels ahead of Trump’s return – The New York Times: ‘The Biden administration hopes that the communication structure that it put in place will help stabilize the economic relationship with China if a new period of volatility emerges.’ 🇺🇸
US sanctions Chinese firm over potentially deadly ransomware attack – Reuters: ‘the statement said that an energy company targeted in Sichuan Silence’s hacking campaign was “actively involved in drilling” during the attack.’ 🇺🇸
US adds 2 Chinese firms to trade blacklist over human rights concerns – SCMP 🇺🇸
US high-tech sanctions aim to deprive Chinese people of right to development, China’s foreign ministry says – Xinhua
Nog maart kortgeleden noemde China het ‘recht op ontwikkeling’ als één van vier rode lijnen in de relatie met de VS. Gaan we hier dan ook een overeenkomstige reactie op zien of niet?
China staat ook niet stil:
China says it takes ‘necessary measures’ to defend sovereignty over Taiwan – Reuters: ‘A senior Taiwan security official, offering the government’s assessment of China’s activities, told a briefing in Taipei it took China’s military nearly 70 days to plan and deploy the current sea operations and that they were meant for the incoming Trump government and U.S. allies, rather than specifically Lai’s visit to the Pacific.’ 🇹🇼🇺🇸
Exclusive: Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom – Reuters: ‘Letting the yuan , depreciate could make Chinese exports cheaper, thus blunting the impact of tariffs’ 🇺🇸
China got a head start on a looming trade war with the US by showcasing a new range of tools it’s prepared to use if Trump makes good on his threat to punish the world’s second-biggest economy with tariffs – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
Nvidia faces US$1 billion fine if China probe finds violation of antitrust laws, experts say – SCMP: ‘widely seen as a retaliatory move against Washington’s escalated chip restrictions’ 🇺🇸
Beijing to slap visa curbs on US officials for ‘behaving poorly’ on Hong Kong – SCMP: ‘in response to Washington’s threats to sanction officials responsible for implementing the national security law’ 🇺🇸
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells business group China and US should choose dialogue over confrontation – Xinhua 🇺🇸
Trump, ondertussen:
US president-elect Trump invites China’s Xi Jinping to inauguration – CBS News: ‘the president-elect's team has raised the possibility of hosting other leaders at the Capitol on Jan. 20. Hungary’s far-right leader, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’ 🇺🇸
Chinese official praises Trump invitation but does not say if Xi will attend inauguration – SCMP 🇺🇸
Mijn database van Chinese diplomatieke bezoeken maakt extra duidelijk dat Xi zelf niet zou komen, ook al waren de betrekkingen goed. China stuurt presidentiële gezanten (国家主席习近平特别代表) naar inauguraties en begrafenissen – en eigenlijk alleen van landen waar het vriendelijk mee is. Dit betreft soms de vice-president, maar meestal (vice)voorzitters van het parlement of CPPCC of ministers. Onder het huidige gesternte zou vice-president Han Zheng al een groot signaal zijn.
Het is sowieso normaal traditioneel diplomatiek protocol om geen staatshoofd naar inauguraties of kroningen te sturen, om het feestbeest niet diens glans af te pakken. Bovendien gaat Xi geen figurant spelen in het Grote Trump Feest.
Taiwan officials visit US for talks with Trump’s circle, say sources – Reuters: ‘Lin Fei-fan and Hsu Szu-chien, both deputy secretaries-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council and several of their staff have traveled to the Washington area for meetings through this week, the sources said on condition of anonymity.’ 🇺🇸🇹🇼
Handel 🚗⚡️
Voor staalfabrikanten in Europa moet vergroening wijken voor financiële sores – NRC: „Een instroom van goedkoop Chinees staal knaagt aan de resultaten van veel Europese fabrieken.” 🇪🇺🇳🇱
Tata Steel.
India considers ‘safeguard’ duty on steel, minister says – Reuters 🇮🇳
Northvolt’s bankruptcy filing has given Europe’s EV ambitions a stark reality check. Now a Bloomberg News analysis finds that many more European battery projects are in trouble – Bloomberg: ‘Twelve out of 16 planned European-led battery factories have been delayed or canceled, according to a Bloomberg News analysis.’
‘Meanwhile, 10 of 13 projects in the region by Asian manufacturers such as China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. and South Korea’s Samsung SDI are on track.’ 🇪🇺
China’s CATL to build €4.1bn battery factory with Stellantis in European expansion – FT: ‘The factory in Zaragoza, northeastern Spain, is scheduled to start production by late 2026 under a 50-50 joint venture’
‘The Spanish factory is CATL’s third big investment in Europe. It is already operating plants in Germany and Hungary.’ 🇪🇸
After taking Brazil’s nascent EV sector by storm, China’s automakers are facing increasing challenges – Bloomberg: ‘Brazilian ports have been clogged this year with upwards of 70,000 unsold Chinese EVs’ 🇧🇷
China is encouraging its electrical vehicle manufacturers to invest in South Africa as it seeks to broaden ties between the two nations – Bloomberg 🇿🇦
Trumps plannen bedreigen BMW’s wereldfabriek in South Carolina – FD 🇩🇪🇺🇸
China’s biggest industry group for automobile makers urge the government to extend concessions for trading in older vehicles – Bloomberg: ‘amid a drop in electric vehicle exports.’
Baidu 百度, Geely 吉利’s EV venture faces uproar after it says needs fresh funds – Reuters
China’s massive Yiwu wholesale hub at the forefront of trade-reform efforts – SCMP: ‘The deepening-development plan will also support the high-quality development of China-Europe express trains’
China busy bolstering other trade ties amid tensions with US and EU – SCMP: ‘Analysts said such intensive efforts to build trade relations with different countries could be seen as China’s way of creating a “strategic counterbalance”’
Tech War 💽💥
Germany’s Infineon sees demand for local semiconductor production in China, CEO says – Nikkei Asia: ‘“Customers in China are asking for localization of production for those parts which are very difficult to replace,” Hanebeck said. “That’s why we will transfer some of our products to foundries in China and we have our own back end in China and that way we can address the concern of the Chinese customers in terms of supply security.”’ 🇩🇪
Chinese spokesperson warns of harm to Taiwan’s industries as DPP uses TSMC 台積電 as ‘pledge of allegiance’ to court US – The Global Times: ‘it is only a matter of time before TSMC turns into an “American Semiconductor Manufacturing Company,” she said.’ 🇹🇼🇺🇸
Chip war: China’s semiconductor imports expand ahead of tightened US restrictions – SCMP: ‘The total value of IC imports recorded by the mainland in the past 11 months reached US$349 billion, up 10.5 per cent from a year earlier, customs data showed.’ 🇺🇸
China’s semiconductor firms cash in chips as export boom bucks overall trend – SCMP 🇺🇸
China’s top chip design tool maker Empyrean Technology 华大九天 cedes control to state-owned firm CEC 中国电子 after US blacklisting – SCMP: ‘Four Empyrean directors quit the board, paving the way for CEC, which indirectly holds a 34 per equity stake in the company, to take a total of six seats on the 11-seat board.’
‘Empyrean said the change would allow it to take advantage of CEC’s access to national ministries, local governments, and state-owned enterprises’ 🇺🇸
Huawei 华为 suppliers face new limits under US defence bill considered a ‘must-pass’ this year – SCMP: ‘prohibit the Pentagon from doing business with companies that sell computer chips and services to Huawei Technologies’ 🇺🇸
It’s not just TikTok. You probably use lots of Chinese technology. – The Washington Post: ‘Americans use a lot of technology from China, and that’s not going to stop.’ 🇺🇸
TikTok’s Canada unit seeks judicial review of shutdown orders – Reuters 🇨🇦
TSMC 台積電 revenue to grow 25% next year – Taipei Times: ‘driven by robust demand for advanced technologies used in artificial intelligence (AI) applications and crypto mining’
Chinese oefeningen bij Taiwan 🪖🇹🇼
China sends largest naval fleet in nearly three decades to region, threat level severe, Taiwan says – Reuters: ‘a threat to Taiwan that is more pronounced than previous Chinese war games, the Taiwanese defence ministry said on Tuesday.’
‘defence ministry spokesperson Sun Li-fang said the scale of the current Chinese naval deployment in an area running from the southern Japanese islands down into the South China Sea was the largest since China held war games around Taiwan ahead of 1996 Taiwanese presidential elections.’ 🇨🇳
China naval activity around Taiwan signals attempt to restrict foreign involvement, defence official says – Focus Taiwan: ‘formed two “walls” east of Taiwan that aim to secure control of the Taiwan Strait and block the access of other countries’ 🇨🇳
Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP)’s US ‘stopover’ a separatist move, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office says – Xinhua: ‘soliciting external support to seek “Taiwan independence.”’ 🇨🇳
China says it takes ‘necessary measures’ to defend sovereignty over Taiwan – Reuters: ‘A senior Taiwan security official, offering the government’s assessment of China’s activities, told a briefing in Taipei it took China’s military nearly 70 days to plan and deploy the current sea operations and that they were meant for the incoming Trump government and U.S. allies, rather than specifically Lai’s visit to the Pacific.’ 🇨🇳
US says China military activity elevated around Taiwan, but not a response to Lai’s trip – Reuters 🇺🇸
‘Routinised’ China drills might delay combat response, ex-US official Klinck says – Focus Taiwan: ‘by desensitizing Taiwan and its partners’ 🇨🇳
PLA’s reserved airspaces aim to play ‘mind games’ with Taiwan, scholars say – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
Taiwan closes emergency response centre, likely meaning Chinese drills over – Reuters 🇨🇳
Taiwan coast guard monitors Chinese vessels after drills – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
Multiple drills under Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 (KMT)’s presidency, DPP says – Taipei Times: ‘after Ma’s office implied that Beijing conducted no drills during the former president’s tenure.’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Havenbaas Rotterdam: kwetsbaar door afhankelijkheid van Chinese goederen – ANP en BNR 🇳🇱
NAVO-chef Rutte ziet oorlogsgevaar „in volle vaart op ons afkomen” – NRC: „Rusland, China, maar ook Noord-Korea en Iran werken aan het verzwakken van Noord-Amerika en Europa. Ze bedreigen onze vrijheid. Ze willen de wereldorde veranderen”
De bodem van de diepzee is ook militair terrein – NRC: „China heeft nu al de sterkste marine ter wereld en wil zijn invloed in met name de Grote Oceaan steeds verder uitbreiden. Een kennisvoorsprong over de diepzee is voor China ontzettend aantrekkelijk.”
Defence of Guam: US conducts first ballistic missile intercept amid contest with China – SCMP 🇺🇸
Japan, US, and Philippines officials discuss South China Sea situation; nations agree to deepen maritime cooperation – The Yomiuri Shimbun: ‘their first maritime dialogue meeting on Tuesday’ 🇯🇵🇺🇸🇵🇭
The Philippines and Denmark eye greater cooperation between coast guards – The Inquirer 🇩🇰🇵🇭
Denmark seeks to forge closer ties with Southeast Asian nations in a bid to become less dependent on China, Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen says – Bloomberg 🇩🇰
Japan and Finland to negotiate defence equipment transfer pact – Kyodo News 🇯🇵🇫🇮
South Korean upheaval rattles US plan to counter China – FT: ‘“[Opposition] Lee and the DPK can be described as pro-China because they see improving ties with Beijing as a prerequisite for improving relations with the North,” said Jaewoo Choo, head of the China Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Security think-tank in Seoul.’ 🇰🇷
China criticises Canada’s new Arctic policy which calls Beijing a potential threat – The Globe and Mail 🇨🇦
Pacific Islands wait for Trump, wary of climate and China stance – Reuters
He thought he had escaped Beijing’s clutches only to vanish back into China – The Washington Post: ‘Rahman’s secret repatriation is a starkly chilling example of how China increasingly exerts its will extrajudicially outside its borders, not only over Southeast Asian countries such as Cambodia, but also international bodies — including the United Nations’ 🇺🇳🇰🇭
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
German carmakers are placing a risky bet on China – Alexander Brown and Andreas Mischer for The Diplomat: ‘In the face of growing competition from Chinese players, German car executives are acting as if nothing has changed.’ 🇩🇪
Angela Merkel’s blind spot on China – Noah Barkin for The Wire China: ‘it is remarkable what Merkel does not say about China in a 720-page tome that she spent two years writing.’ 🇩🇪
How US firms battled a government crackdown to keep tech sales to China – The New York Times: ‘the chip equipment companies deployed lobbyists to Capitol Hill and the White House, set up advocacy organizations and funded supportive research by think tanks’
‘In recent years, according to four of those officials, some B.I.S. employees inappropriately informed U.S. companies about forthcoming sanctions. That information had sometimes been passed on to Chinese customers, who then stockpiled U.S. products, three of the people said.’
China-Russia Arctic and maritime cooperation –
Changing cadre incentives: The untold story of China’s economic challenge – Zhuoran Li for The Diplomat: ‘By removing individual incentives from the evaluation process, cadres have lost their self-motivation for work.’
Forced labour, coercive land-use transfers, and forced assimilation in Xinjiang’s agricultural production – Adrian Zenz and I-Lin Lin for the International Network for Critical China Studies
The politics of language oppression in Tibet – Gerald Roche for the SOAS China Institute
More aircraft, more ships, more often: how the Chinese PLA is pressuring Taiwan’s defences – SCMP: ‘The analysis, which examined tracking data from the past 18 months, showed that the PLA has deployed more aircraft, increasingly closer to the island, with a higher number of sorties, and a higher percentage of those sorties, crossing the median line that divides the Taiwan Strait.’
The western myth of the ‘guy we can do business with’ – Janan Ganesh in FT
Podcasts
Fragmented Authoritarianism in Xi's China – CSIS Pekingology 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Assad’s fall in Syria exposes limits of China’s Middle East diplomacy – Reuters: ‘“There’s been a lot of an exaggerated sense of China's ability to shape political outcomes in the region,” said Jonathan Fulton’ 🇸🇾
‘Concern over Uyghur fighters in Syria prompted both a crackdown in Xinjiang itself in the late 2010s, and outreach to the Syrian government. Expect Beijing to be watching the evolving role of Uyghurs in Syria closely.’ – Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Twitter 🇸🇾
Beijing decries South Korean leader Yoon Suk Yeol 尹錫悅 (PPP)’s ‘Chinese spy’ defence of martial law – SCMP 🇰🇷
South Korea hosts high-level trade talks with China amid political uncertainties – Yonhap News: ‘Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo met with Li Fei, China’s assistant minister of commerce, in Seoul’ 🇰🇷
Philippines considers new UN case against Beijing over South China Sea activity – FT: ‘Among the options under consideration are another case challenging Chinese sovereignty claims, an environmental case and a case against China’s use of force against other countries’ vessels.’ 🇵🇭
Philippines to continue resupply missions in South China Sea, won’t escalate situation – Rappler: ‘Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on Tuesday, December 10, that the country will continue its resupply missions in the South China Sea without the need to deploy the navy’ 🇵🇭
China’s foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 calls for progress with Vietnam on South China Sea cooperation – SCMP: ‘Wang also said that Beijing and Hanoi should strengthen economic cooperation and establish a “stable and smooth cross-border industrial and supply chain”’ 🇻🇳
Myanmar’s Kachin Independence Army sends delegation to China for talks – AFP: ‘analysts say […] Beijing pressured the groups to halt operations against the junta.’ 🇲🇲
Laos bestows national development award on sanctioned Chinese ‘crime boss’ – The Diplomat: ‘Zhao Wei is the head of the Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone in Bokeo province, a known haven of cyber-scam operations.’ 🇱🇦
Beijing’s chosen Panchen Lama to make rare visit to Nepal after Tibet trip, reports say – SCMP: ‘Tibet’s second highest religious figure who sits on China’s top political advisory body’
‘just months before the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism, is expected to reveal a succession plan.’ 🇳🇵
Nepal: Beijing’s illegitimate Panchen Lama must not be allowed to visit – International Tibet Network 🇳🇵
Canada sanctions 8 former and current Chinese officials, citing human rights violations – SCMP: ‘citing alleged state-led human rights violations in the Xinjiang region, Tibet and against Falun Gong followers.’ 🇨🇦
China urges Canada to cease interfering in its internal affairs, foreign ministry says – Xinhua: ‘Even today, Canada's indigenous population faces systemic racial discrimination and unfair treatment.’ 🇨🇦
Chinese citizen arrested for flying drone over US Space Force base – SCMP 🇺🇸
Japan asks China to bolster security of its citizens on Nanjing massacre anniversary – Kyodo News 🇯🇵
China economie
China’s exports slow sharply, imports shrink ahead of Trump tariffs – Reuters: ‘South Korea’s exports, a leading indicator of China's imports, slowed to the weakest level in 14 months in November.’
China’s exports to Russia drop for first time in four months – Reuters
China’s foreign trade up 4.9 pct in Jan.-Nov. – Xinhua
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 warns ‘no winners’ in US trade war, vows China will protect its interests – SCMP
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 says China will remain world’s ‘growth engine’ – FT: ‘told a gathering in Beijing of multilateral institution heads’
China’s infrastructure spending may surge in 2025 to meet 5-year goals – SCMP: ‘Official data shows that progress in key sectors — from railways to nuclear power — lags behind the plan’s goals, leaving large room for next year’
Private banks in China seek state capital amid economic pressures – The Straits Times: ‘as an economic slowdown weighs on profitability in the sector.’
China binnenland
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 calls for wider use of Mandarin in China’s border areas amid security push – SCMP
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 stresses enhancing governance and boosting high-quality development in China’s border areas – Xinhua: ‘The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held its 18th group study session on the afternoon of Dec. 9’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 stresses sound governance and high-quality development in border areas – Xinhua: ‘Xi also highlighted the necessity of comprehensively promoting standard spoken and written Chinese and the use of unified state-compiled textbooks.’
‘It is essential to prioritize national security and social stability as the bottom-line requirement for governance in border areas’
‘Xi called for accelerating the development of an independent Chinese knowledge system for borderland studies’
China will expand its private pension program to the entire country, as the government grapples with retirement payout challenges due to the rapidly ageing population – Bloomberg: ‘only 22% of participants made any deposits, local media outlet the Paper reported in March.’
China announces nationwide roll-out of private pension scheme – Xinhua: ‘As a supplementary pension insurance, this scheme is voluntary for individuals and operated in a market-oriented manner through support from national policies’
Exclusive: China to launch national disability care insurance system – Caixin Global
China formally arrests former agriculture minister Táng Rénjiàn 唐仁健 for corruption – Reuters: ‘The 62-year-old Tang was removed from the leadership roster of the ministry’s website in May and expelled from the Communist Party six months later.’
China’s Communist Party expels former chief of sports body Gǒu Zhòngwén 苟仲文 – Reuters
China’s customs chief and trade warrior Yú Jiànhuá 俞建华 dies aged 63 after sudden illness – SCMP
Story of Chinese female MA graduate going missing for 13 years sparks online storm – What’s On Weibo: ‘brings back memories of […] the case of the Xuzhou mother of eight children, who was discovered chained in a shed next to her family home’
Chinese police can use text message evidence in crackdown on domestic violence – SCMP
Hong Kong
Ex-lawmaker Lam Cheuk-ting 林卓廷 found guilty of ‘rioting’ in Yuen Long 2019 white-shirt mob attacks – HKFP: ‘Lam was among those attacked’ ‘The prosecution accused the defendants of provoking the white-shirt men’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
韓國瑜將率團祝賀川普就職 賴清德悄悄話祝一路順風 – 聯合報 🇺🇸
Volgens KMT-krant UDN zal parlementsvoorzitter Han Kuo-yu 韓國瑜 (KMT) – de voormalige populistische presidentskandidaat met schimmige banden – naar Washington DC reizen voor de inauguratie van president Trump. Dit volgt precedenten.
First agreement under Taiwan-US Initiative on 21st-Century Trade takes effect – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
US annual defence bill earmarks US$300m worth of military support for Taiwan – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
US president-elect Donald Trump noncommittal on defence of Taiwan – Taipei Times: ‘Japanese media reported that Washington is to reconstitute the US forces in Japan as a joint force headquarters under the Indo-Pacific Command.’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council conditionally approves Taipei-Shanghai Twin City Forum – Taipei Times: ‘reserving the right to reverse the decision if China escalates military actions deemed threatening to Taiwan.’ 🇨🇳
Influencer Wang Wen-jui (王文瑞), known online as ‘Taiwan Grandpa’, accused of Chinese ‘united front’ propaganda – Taipei Times: ‘YouTuber “Pa Chiung” (八炯) on Friday released a video in which he said that Wang makes about 200,000 yuan (US$27,570) a month.’ 🇨🇳
Ex-President Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 (KMT) to visit China for second time this year – Focus Taiwan: ‘Ma would lead a group of Taiwanese students to China on a nine-day trip from Dec. 18-26, at the invitation of the Chinese side.’ 🇨🇳
Hong Kong trip by KMT’s caucus whip Fu Kun-chi 傅崐萁 serves China’s interests, DPP caucus says – Taipei Times: ‘Fu and his wife, KMT Hualien County Commissioner Hsu Chen-wei (徐榛蔚), are in Hong Kong to promote Hualien’s agricultural products and tourism, he said.’ 🇨🇳🇭🇰
Deputy foreign minister François Wu 吳志中 arrives in Somaliland to attend presidential inauguration – Focus Taiwan: ‘Serving as special envoy to President Lai Ching-te’ 🇸🇴
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Prosecutors question Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) and Muko director Lee Wen-chuan 李文娟, close to indictment, according to source – Taipei Times: ‘Huang also alleged that prosecutors have found a hard drive owned by Ko containing copies of eight checks by which corporations and business tycoons paid “large sums of money” to Ko, or to the TPP as political donations, but were not included in assets declarations, nor in the party’s accounts.’
President Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) pays tribute to ex-political prisoners, pledges to defend democracy as he marked International Human Rights Day – Focus Taiwan: ‘the Bangladesh-based human rights group, Odhikar, conferred with the TFD’s 2024 Asia Democracy and Human Rights Award (ADHRA)’ 🇧🇩
Former Kaohsiung city councillor Chen Tsui-luan 陳粹鑾 (KMT)’s prison sentence upheld by court – Taipei Times: ‘Her daughter, Cheng An-li (鄭安秝), won a councilor seat in the local elections that year’ ‘while in prison Chen still could communicate with her family’ ‘to produce fake list of names as people hired as her daughter’s office assistants and for some years pocket their monthly wages.’
Taiwan’s interior ministry retroactively nullifies Chinese-born former Nantou councillor Shi Xueyan 史雪燕 (KMT)’s public official status – Taipei Times: ‘due to her failure to prove she had renounced her Chinese citizenship.’
Greenpeace details forced labour allegations against Taiwan fishing vessels – Focus Taiwan
Ex-labour official involved in suicide controversy accused of corruption – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s National Development Council launches infrastructure project plans – Taipei Times
GDP to grow stably next year, institutes says – Taipei Times