De Taiwanese Wouden, vrijdag 12 januari: vooravond Taiwanese verkiezingen
Voor de overrompelde lezers die geabonneerd dachten te zijn op een nieuwsbrief over China, nog even geduld, volgende week woensdag of vrijdag zal de Taiwanamania weer afgenomen zijn.
Zaterdag 13 januari openen acht uur ’s ochtends lokale tijd (01:00 in Nederland) de stembussen in Taiwan. Om vier uur ’s middags (09:00 hier) gaan ze al weer dicht. Rond het middaguur weten we de uitslag.
In mijn stuk voor de Spectator – waarmee ik continu onder de arm loop, ik weet het, sorry – schrijf ik hoe de China-factor het politieke landschap in Taiwan heeft gevormd. Maar het wordt steeds meer duidelijk dat in dat landschap de identitaire appels van DPP en KMT aan kracht verliezen. Juist daarom kan de populistische TPP kansen vinden, zoals Leen Vervaeke laat zien in weer een excellente rapportage in de Volkskrant.
Veel is ook veranderd buiten Taiwan. De Verenigde Staten doen nu moeite om neutraal over te komen en hebben betere banden met de regerende DPP. Dat was eens anders. Bill Bishop bracht deze week weer in de herinnering dat voor de verkiezingen van 2012 functionarissen van de Obama-regering duidelijk maakten dat ze KMT-president Ma Ying-jeou verkozen boven DPP-kandidaat Tsai Ing-wen. Onder de DPP-voorganger van Ma, Chen Shui-bian, waren de banden tussen Washington en Taipei stroef.
Neutraliteit treft Nikkei Asia ook aan op de financiële marketen. Maar in dat geval speelt angst een grotere rol. Ineens geven allemaal economische experts plotseling aan zich niet over politiek uit te laten. Het is begrijpelijk. Toch is het ook niet goed dat de experts de financiële risico’s en uitdagingen rondom zo’n belangrijk geopolitiek moment niet durven bespreken. Blind varen is niet prettig.
Dat heeft alles te maken met de Chinese reactie. Een enorme hoeveelheid inmenging van Peking moet de KMT aan de overwinning helpen. Maar zelfs met Hou Yu-ih in het Presidentieel Kantoor zal in China het besef moeten komen dat ook de KMT geen ‘hereniging’ met China brengt. Als Lai wint, zullen we op de korte termijn grote Chinese lawaaiacties tegemoetzien. Economische donder, militaire bliksem en diplomatiek circus. Het is de zaak om ons daardoor niet al te veel mee te laten slepen en de oog te houden op de structurele veranderingen in het Chinese beleid over de komende weken heen.
Wat de Taiwanezen ook kiezen, alle partijen zeggen de status quo van Taiwanese onafhankelijkheid van de Volksrepubliek te willen bewaren. Dit is reactief. Want ondertussen zijn de structurele veranderingen in het Chinese beleid de onderliggende oorzaak van spanningen die in het nachtmerriescenario tot een vernietigende oorlog zouden kunnen leiden. De keuze voor het voortbestaan van deze flashpoint is aan de Chinese Communistische Partij.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Premier De Croo trekt naar Peking: „Hij lijkt op jacht naar selfies met wereldleiders” – De Morgen 🇧🇪
Varkens en visums inzet van Chinareis De Croo – De Standaard 🇧🇪
Belgian PM Alexander De Croo faces high-wire act in China during visit as EU and Taiwan fears intrude – POLITICO Europe 🇧🇪
Parket start strafonderzoek naar Chinees spionageschandaal bij Vlaams Belang – De Standaard 🇧🇪
Belgium opens criminal probe into suspected Chinese spy Frank Creyelman (Vlaams Belang) – FT: ‘the case had been handed over to the federal prosecutor by the federal police office’s anti-corruption unit.’
‘As espionage and foreign interference are not considered crimes under Belgium’s penal code which dates back to 1867, authorities often prosecute similar cases on corruption charges if the evidence supports it, according to officials familiar with the matter.’ 🇧🇪
Ambassador Fù Cōng 傅聪, Head of the Chinese Mission to the EU, Met with Vera Jourova, Vice-President of the European Commission – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union 🇪🇺
Chinese and Finnish presidents discuss damage to Baltic gas pipeline blamed on Chinese ship – SCMP 🇫🇮
President Niinistö spoke with President Xi of China – President of the Republic of Finland: ‘President Niinistö raised the issue of the war in Ukraine and its wider consequences. Niinistö stressed the role of China in achieving a just and lasting peace.’ 🇫🇮
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets Finnish president Sauli Niinistö via video link – Xinhua 🇫🇮
German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, in Philippines, raps China’s ‘risky manoeuvres’ in South China Sea – Reuters 🇩🇪
ASML 💽🇳🇱
Chinese commerce ministry slams US interference in lithography machine exports by Dutch companies to China – Xinhua: ‘“We urge the Dutch side to respect the spirit of contracts, support enterprises in conducting trade in compliance with regulations, and maintain a free, open, just and non-discriminatory international trade environment,” she said at a press conference.’ 🇳🇱
European Union not in ‘Champions League’ of economic security, ASML lobbyist Wouter Baljon says – SCMP: ‘Earlier in the day, EU industry chief Thierry Breton described Europe as a “third bloc” in a multipolar world.’ 🇪🇺🇳🇱
Jemen 🇾🇪
China’s UN envoy Zhāng Jūn 张军 calls on parties to play responsible role in easing Red Sea tensions – Xinhua:
“We call on the Houthis to abide by the provisions of the Security Council resolution and immediately stop its disturbances to the civilian vessels, and to respect the navigational freedoms of all countries in the Red Sea,” said Zhang.
“We call on relevant parties to strictly abide by the UN Charter and international law, and play a constructive and responsible role in easing tensions in the Red Sea. No country should misinterpret or abuse relevant provisions in this resolution to create new tensions in the Red Sea,” he said.
It must be noted that the current tensions in the Red Sea are one of the manifestations of the spillover effects of the conflict in Gaza
[…] China had to abstain from the vote, said Zhang.
Al vast aan het voorsorteren op het beschuldigen van een door de Amerikanen geleide marinemissie van het verergeren van de regionale spanningen?
context: US and UK prepare to launch strikes against Houthis in Yemen – The Guardian
Taiwan verkiezingen 🇹🇼🗳️
Taiwan stemt nu eens niet alleen over China, maar ook over de wooncrisis – en dat is goed nieuws voor uitdager ‘professor Ko’ – de Volkskrant
Taiwan’s Gen Z voters want something new in Saturday’s election – Al Jazeera: ‘Taiwan’s next generation of Gen Z and younger Millennial voters born in the late 1990s and early 2000s are emerging as a political force, and they see the DPP not as the party of outsiders who can bring change, but as part of the establishment.’
‘“We have this idea that young people all care about wages and housing, and I think that’s a bit of an overstatement,” Nachman said.’
Taiwanese kiezers zijn verdeeld over de aanpak van China, maar hechten aan de status quo – NRC in KMT-territorium.
Taiwan elections: Rivals strike deep in front runner Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP)’s stronghold Tainan – The Straits Times op DPP-grondgebied.
Taiwan elections: Opposition KMT and TPP join forces to secure more legislative seats – The Straits Times
A few interesting district races – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic: ‘The key will be how TPP voters break in the legislative races.’
Could there be a shock upset on Taiwan’s election day? – Courtney Donovan Smith
Elections: Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) rejects Jaw Shaw-Kong 照燒空 (KMT)’s appeal to exclude cooperation with DPP – Taipei Times
原民立委選舉爆賄選 2案主嫌都收押 – 自由時報:「國民黨籍平地原住民立委候選人黃仁的桃園競選服務處主任委員洪國治,被檢舉以每票二千元向選民賄選 」
Arrestaties op verdenking van omkoping voor campagne van KMT-kandidaat voor zetel gereserveerd voor oorspronkelijke bewoners.
uitspraken Ma Ying-jeou
Taiwan election: Ex-president Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九’s call for trust in Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 may cost KMT in final campaign stretch – The Straits Times
Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 (KMT)’s comments about trusting Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 draws rebuke from DPP – Focus Taiwan: ‘Ma, the former Kuomintang (KMT) president, said “as far as cross-strait relations, you have to,” when asked if he can trust Chinese leader Xi Jinping.’
‘Asked to comment on possible unification with China, the 73-year-old Ma, who served as president from 2008 to 2016, noted that, constitutionally speaking, such a proposal was ”acceptable to Taiwan.” “Unification is something that our constitution says. [Incorrect.] So, it’s actually acceptable to Taiwan, but it has to be done peacefully and through a democratic process.” “If that can be done [in such a manner] the chances are people in Taiwan may be interested in accepting that [unification],” he said.’ [Incorrect: volgens een peiling uit 2020 wilde toen al nog maar 29% samen met China in een hypothetisch geval dat de economische, sociale en politieke situatie aan beide kanten ongeveer gelijk zou zijn, tegen 68% voor formele onafhankelijkheid in het hypothetische geval dat China geen oorlog begint.]
‘Ma described the notion Taiwan should spend enough on its military so that it could hold off a Chinese attack until the United States or Japan could assist as “too optimistic.”’
We ‘can never win’ a war: Taiwan’s former president Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 on the best way to deal with China | DW News – YouTube
Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 (KMT) distances himself from Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九’s remarks – Taipei Times
Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 not invited to KMT’s election-eve rally following remarks – Taipei Times: ‘It would be the first time the former president was not invited to a major election rally held by the KMT.’
KMT-kandidaat Hou Yu-ih heeft negatief gereageerd, maar kan dit niet al te hard veroordelen. De partij is verdeeld tussen de groepen rond Ma Ying-jeou &co en Hou Yu-ih en de wat onmachtige partijvoorzitter Eric Chu. Hou moet zowel de harde kern achter Ma aanspreken als de gematigdere middenstem.
選前台中大造勢 賴清德:請用選票證明馬英九錯了 – 中央社
DPP-kandidaat Lai Ching-te reageerde door kiezers op te roepen met hun stemmen Ma Ying-jeou te laten zien dat hij fout zit. De DPP reageerde boos op Ma, maar het campagneteam zal hebben staan juichen bij zoveel materiaal voor het aloude DPP-argument dat de KMT een wolf in schaapskleren is.
VS 🇺🇸
Joe Biden to send former top officials to Taipei after Taiwan’s election – FT: ‘The White House has tapped James Steinberg, a former Democratic deputy secretary of state, and Stephen Hadley, a former Republican national security adviser, to lead the bipartisan delegation’
China urges US to stop interfering in elections in Taiwan region – Xinhua
FT heeft enkele anonieme voormalige Amerikaanse functionarissen die de Chinese psychologische oorlogsvoering een handje helpen door paniek te zaaien over Pekings mogelijke reacties op deze delegatie. Een bezoek is niet een extreem signaal en het is niet zonder precedent. Daarnaast, zoals Bill Bishop zegt, ook dialoog met China voeren ís belangrijk, maar aangezien Peking weinig beloften nakomt, moet je geen concrete dingen opgeven enkel om nog meer vermaningen en loze beloften aan te kunnen horen onder het mom van ‘dialoog’.
Chinese Communist Party liaison chief Liú Jiànchāo 刘建超 meets US deputy national security adviser Jonathan Finer to explain Taiwan ‘red line’ – SCMP
Ook tussen Washington en Peking wordt moeite gedaan om op dit gevoelige moment de stabiliteit te bewaren.
White House accuses Beijing of Taiwan election meddling – POLITICO
Chinese inmenging 🇨🇳🕵🏻♂️
China’s government and Taiwan’s largest opposition party KMT both warn of threat to peace from ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) – Reuters
‘Taiwan independence’ and peace across Taiwan Strait cannot coexist, says [Chinese] spokesperson – Xinhua: ‘He expressed hope that Taiwan compatriots would see the extreme harm of the DPP’s “Taiwan independence” policy and the severe danger of Lai’s instigation of cross-Strait conflicts and make the right choice at the crossroads of cross-Strait relations.’
Dit is een aankondiging dat China zelf gaat zorgen dat duidelijk wordt wat voor een ‘ernstig gevaar’ Lai wel niet zou zijn.
China satellite launch causes pre-election political storm in Taiwan – Reuters: ‘Taiwan’s presidential office said it did not consider the launch of a Chinese satellite whose rocket flew over southern Taiwan an attempt at interference ahead of the poll, but the main opposition party questioned why the alert was issued.’
2024 Elections: Air raid alert not political, military says – Taipei Times
KMT leans into allegations that missile alert was ‘orchestrated’ by the DPP – New Bloom: ‘the KMT has chosen to lean into a narrative that simply alleges that threats from China are concocted by the DPP for the sake of elections and not real in the slightest, as has been an undercurrent of its election campaigning to date, but has rarely illustrated so openly.’
Fake posts flood social media after China satellite launch alert, says Taiwan AI Labs – Taipei Times
De DPP mag zich gelukkig prijzen dat de uitspraken van Ma Ying-jeou dit hebben doen vergeten.
DPP lawmaker says alleged audio leak of Tsai Ing-wen discussing apparent party divide in 2019 amounts to ‘foreign interference’ – SCMP: ‘legislator Lo Chih-cheng, believed to be the man talking to Tsai, said […] the recording was “edited illegally”’
‘The recording was leaked just days after Lo reported to the Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau that a sex video posted online that appeared to be of him was a “deepfake”.’
‘Referring to the two leaks, Jaw Shaw-kong, the KMT’s candidate for vice-president, said on Tuesday that those who accused Beijing of interference should “present proof” of their accusations.’
China is posting fake videos featuring a false ‘secret history’ of President Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP), sources said – Taipei Times: ‘Beijing is likely using Taiwan as a test bed for information warfare techniques that could be deployed against other countries while still damaging the Democratic Progressive Party at the ballot box on Saturday, the official said.’
‘An E-book titled “The Secret History of Tsai Ing-wen” (蔡英文秘史) are being spread by bots in the Chinese language social media circle. The book, mixing facts with political rumors, portrays the Taiwan President as a morally corrupt and promiscuous race traitor.’ – Wenhao, Twitter
Ex-legislator and former Mainland Affairs Council deputy minister Chang Hsien-yao 張顯耀 (KMT) questioned over fake opinion polls – Taipei Times: ‘summoned for questioning over alleged contraventions of the Anti-infiltration Act’ ‘He was released on bail of NT$1 million (US$32,113).’
Over 50 listed as defendants in alleged subsidised China trip case, Yilan District Prosecutors Office said – Focus Taiwan
Hoe ga je om met Chinese inmenging, als die een specifieke partij steunt én die partij er dankbaar gebruik van maakt? In sommige landen zou de KMT al lang verboden zijn – vanwege de moorddadige dictatoriale geschiedenis van de partij en de verstrengeling met China – maar dat zou in de Taiwanese context onmogelijk zijn en gigantische schade aanrichten aan het democratisch weefsel.
Taiwan to assist businesses after China mulls suspending more tariff cuts – Focus Taiwan
Goedkope Chinese vliegtickets voor Taiwanezen die op pro-Beijing kandidaat stemmen – Trouw
Hoe een Taiwanese popgroep door China ‘gedwongen wordt om mee te doen aan geopolitiek spel’ – AD
China bombards Taiwan with fake news ahead of election – POLITICO Europe
achtergrond
Market players shy away from taking stances on Taiwan election – Nikkei Asia: ‘the politically sensitive nature of the poll means many are cautious to present their views despite playing up its significance.’
On the ballot in Taiwan: The global microchip supply chain – POLITICO Europe
2024 Elections: Lai (DPP) and Hou (KMT) respond to gender-based violence reform groups, Ko (TPP) still silent – Taipei Times
Over 19.54 million eligible voters in Jan. 13 presidential election – Focus Taiwan: ‘On election day, voters will receive three ballots -- a presidential ballot, a regional or aboriginal legislator ballot and a ballot for a political party that will determine legislator-at-large seats.’
Factbox: How does a Taiwan election work? – Reuters
The Future of the Zeitenwende: Scenario 1—China Attacks Taiwan – Edward Stringer in Internationale Politik Quarterly
The red flags ahead: What to expect from Taiwan’s election – James Crabtree for ECFR: ‘European leaders therefore need to develop a more unified position and explain it to their publics.’
【總統政見20問之1】三人最大公約數:兩岸維持現狀,軍民溝通都準備不足 – 報導者
Tech War 💽💥
US companies OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cohere engaged in secret diplomacy on AI safety with Chinese experts – FT: ‘According to multiple people with direct knowledge, two meetings took place in Geneva in July and October last year attended by scientists and policy experts from the American AI groups, alongside representatives of Tsinghua University and other Chinese state-backed institutions.’
‘arranged with the knowledge of the White House as well as that of UK and Chinese government officials’
EU approves €902mn in German state aid for Swedish battery maker Northvolt – FT 🇪🇺
China’s 2023 auto sales grow 12% on overseas demand for EVs – Nikkei Asia
China tells colleges to look into retractions of academic papers – Caixin Global: ‘as Chinese scholars produced three-quarters of the highest-ranking scientific papers pulled by journal publishers last year.’
Taiwan’s NSTC announces gerontechnology chips programme – Taipei Times
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Trump vowed he’d ‘never’ help Europe if it’s attacked, top EU official Thierry Breton says – POLITICO Europe: ‘“By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO,” Trump also said, according to Breton.’
Human rights in decline globally as leaders fail to uphold laws, report warns – The Guardian
China snijdt India de pas af op de Maldiven – de Volkskrant
China ‘firmly opposes external interference’ in Maldives as President Mohamed Muizzu winds up visit – PTI
How China Defines the ‘Global South’: Beijing tries to make the term its own – Kawashima Shin for The Diplomat: ‘As China seeks to create a discursive space tailored to its own interests, it has conversely adopted a policy of reducing the effectiveness of discourse that it finds contrary to its advantage, as with “Global South.”’
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Erin Baggott Carter, Brett L. Carter, and Stephen Schick. ‘Do Chinese Citizens Conceal Opposition to the CCP in Surveys? Evidence from Two Experiments’. The China Quarterly, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741023001819.
‘In this paper, we present results from two survey experiments in contemporary China that make clear that citizens conceal their opposition to the CCP for fear of repression. […] Most broadly, this paper suggests that scholars should stop using direct question surveys to measure political opinions in China.’
Ik was altijd niet de enige academicus die de ‘90%’ van Harvard en Edelman praktisch desinformatie vond – nu is er ook wetenschappelijk bewijs.
Does Europe at last have an answer to Silicon Valley? ASML, a mighty Dutch tech firm, is at the heart of a critical supply chain – The Economist 🇳🇱
Nostalgia for China’s boom years drives a TV hit: A drama series [Blossoms Shanghai] presents 1990s capitalists as heroes, not villains – The Economist’s Chaguan: ‘the first tv series to be directed by Wong Kar-wai, a pillar of Hong Kong’s film industry’ ‘In contrast with the real 1990s, official corruption is nowhere to be seen.’
Taiwan: The facts of history versus Beijing’s myths – Gerrit van der Wees for the Council on Geostrategy
Podcasts
Why a Taiwanese soldier lost his life to defend Ukraine – Bloomberg The Big Take 🍎 🤖
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Verenigde Staten 🇺🇸
China is warning the US not to make waves after a reset of bilateral ties, ahead of Taiwan elections this week – WSJ: ‘the San Francisco vision’
To old ‘friend’ in Iowa, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 writes world requires stability in China-US ties – Reuters
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 says achievements in China-US relations primarily attributed to collective efforts of two countries’ people – Xinhua
Typisch verenigd front-strategie om de massa te scheiden van de hoofdvijand.
Chinese commerce minister and US commerce secretary hold phone talks – Xinhua
China’s police chief meets US homeland security secretary – Xinhua
Suspected Chinese hackers target US research organization in latest spying spree – CNN: ‘The victim organization does research on geopolitics, including China issues, and regularly draws attention from state-backed hackers, according to Volexity.’
Rusland 🇷🇺
Wáng Yì 王毅 calls for intensifying China-Russia strategic coordination in New Year greeting phone call with Lavrov – Xinhua: ‘the two sides have not only well managed the affairs of their respective countries, but also played mainstay roles in the international arena and maintained global strategic stability, Wang said.’
overige
President Santokhi mogelijk medio dit jaar naar China – Suriname Herald
Chinese and Canadian foreign ministers hold phone talks on ties – Xinhua: ‘Wang noted that the current challenging China-Canada relationship is not what China desires, nor is caused by China’
China coastguard vessels enter disputed waters in East China Sea – Reuters
China’s Lǐ Qiáng 李强 to attend World Economic Forum in Davos as Beijing pushes for economic recovery – SCMP
Philippines and Indonesia tackle South China Sea, Myanmar, and Gaza in ministerial meet – CNN Philippines: ‘“Indonesia is ready to work together with all ASEAN member states to finalize the code of conduct as soon as possible in maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea,” said Marsudi.’
Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 to travel to Africa in January – Reuters: ‘the 34th consecutive year in which the foreign minister has gone to Africa for their first overseas trip of the year’
China protests to Papua New Guinea over riots that damaged Chinese stores and injured its citizens – SCMP
China economie
China’s local authorities eye ‘window of opportunity’ to claim slice of sovereign bond pie – SCMP
China binnenland
When President Xi Jinping held talks in California with his US counterpart Joe Biden in November, seated to his right was a man who is quietly emerging as one of China’s most influential politicians: Cài Qí 蔡奇 – Bloomberg: ‘Not only does he sit on the seven-man Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful body, but he also serves as Xi’s chief of staff — making him the first person to hold both positions since the Mao Zedong era. Those dual titles have given Cai another privilege: He’s the only member of China’s top decision-making body to publicly travel overseas with Xi during his decade-plus in power.’ ‘In May, state media revealed Cai had been named as a deputy chair of the ruling party’s National Security Commission’
Cai Qi – China Vitae
China’s corruption watchdog pledges focus on finance, medical graft, and disloyalty – SCMP
China Focus: CCDI plenary session adopts communique – Xinhua: ‘Highlighting the importance of upholding Comrade Xi Jinping's core position on the Party Central Committee and in the Party as a whole, and the Party Central Committee's authority and its centralized, unified leadership, the communique called for enhancing political oversight and prompt actions to remove all potential political dangers.’
Corruption ‘Everywhere”: Chinese TV airs Party-produced mass TV confessions – Safeguard Defenders
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s empty dream city Xiong'an shows limits of his power, even in China – Bloomberg: ‘showing even China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong struggles to command behavior that goes against market forces.’
Sinovac 科兴 reportedly halts Covid-19 vaccine production – The Global Times
Hong Kong
Hong Kong police take mother of wanted US-based activist Frances Hui 許穎婷 away for questioning – HKFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
House speaker Mike Johnson says US stands with Taiwan in first meeting with new envoy Alexander Yui 俞大㵢 – Focus Taiwan: ‘When asked by reporters if he extended an invitation to Johnson to visit Taiwan, Yu said he had not.’
Taiwan prepares for cyber D-Day in China invasion scenarios – AFP
Taiwan crisis may threaten existence of Japan, says LDP Vice President Asō Tarō 麻生太郎 – Jiji Press
Nicaragua closes four associations with ties to Taiwan – AFP
Taiwan binnenland en economie
TSMC 台積電 sales down 4.5% in 2023; Q4 revenue meets estimate – Focus Taiwan