De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 9 oktober: Chinese vergelding, Tsai naar Brussel, stimulans
Peking is gekomen met de reactie op het bevestiging van Europese heffingen op elektrische auto’s uit China. De heffingen op brandy die na eerder ‘onderzoek’ niet waren ingevoerd, komen alsnog. Dit straft ‘aanstichter’ Frankrijk. Tegelijkertijd zegt het Chinese ministerie van handel dat het gaat kijken naar auto’s met verbrandingsmotoren. Dat zou tegenstemmers Duitsland en Slowakije treffen – een waarschuwing om het hoofd erbij te houden?
Er is ook meer bekend over de reis van voormalig Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen naar Europa dit weekend. In Praag zou ze Forum 2000 bijwonen. Reuters bericht dat ze ook nog naar België en Frankrijk gaat. Ik hoor over een Brusselse denktank die een besloten evenement in voorbereiding zou hebben.
De volgende stap in de grote verwachtingen voor stimulans van de Chinese economie is ook gekomen. Een persconferentie van de National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC, voormalige Staatsplan) stelde investeerders teleur. The Straits Times schrijft dat dit misschien wel opzet was.
Na de eerdere monetaire aankondigingen waren de aandelenbeurzen in China op hol geslagen. Ineens werden er weer gigantische winsten geboekt. Dat is nogmaals een bevestiging dat de Chinese casinobeurzen meer golven op beleid van de partijstaat dan economische realiteit. Serieuze fiscale maatregelen blijven uit.
Bill Bishop in zijn Sharp China podcast was niet de enige die memoreerde aan de aandelencrash van 2015. Toen Xi nog niet zo lang in het zadel zat, was er ook een grote hause die eindigde in een crash waarin veel middenklasse spaarders met hoop op grote winsten eindigden zonder spaargeld.
Ook nu doen beelden van 50-plussers in kantoren van brokers angstbeelden opdoemen van mensen die al hun spaargeld in de beurs dumpen. Het vertrouwen in de economie is al laag – de partij kan het zich niet veroorloven dat mensen teveel verwachten van deze gekte en dan onvermijdelijk teleurgesteld raken. Wanneer deze bubbel onvermijdelijk weer op aarde terugkeert, zouden de gevolgen voor sociale stabiliteit te groot zijn.
Onder ‘China binnenland’ vind je ruime citaten uit een belangwekkend stuk over de groei van pro-natalistische bureaucratie in China, nu Xi wil dat er méér baby’s geboren worden. Wil jij een gemeenteambtenaar aan de deur om te vragen of je al zwanger bent?
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Ook D66 noodgedwongen terug op TikTok, Jetten: „Willen dominantie PVV en FvD doorbreken” – AD 🇳🇱
Former Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) to make sensitive Prague visit – Reuters: ‘Two diplomatic sources told Reuters Tsai is planning to visit France and Belgium in the same trip to Europe.’
‘Tsai’s predecessor Ma Ying-jeou, from what is currently Taiwan’s largest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), frequently makes overseas trips though without drawing Beijing’s ire.’ 🇨🇿🇫🇷🇧🇪
Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) to attend Prague conference in first post-presidential trip, according to reports – Focus Taiwan: ‘According to a Mirror Media report, Tsai will depart Taiwan Saturday on an 8-day trip to the Czech Republic and two other unnamed European countries.’
‘A source with knowledge of the former president’s travel plans said Tsai is planning to deliver a 10-15-minute speech at the “Forum 2000” conference being held in Prague from Oct. 13-15’ 🇨🇿
President Lai and Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 meet ahead of Europe visit – Taipei Times
Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) takes on role of brand ambassador with Europe visit – Nikkei Asia
Annual Latvia-Lithuania-Taiwan tech cooperation conference held in Taipei – Focus Taiwan 🇱🇻🇱🇹
Rusland 🇷🇺
Handel 🚗🇪🇺
China hits out at EU brandy ‘threat’, signals car probe days after EV tariff vote – SCMP: ‘It also reiterated that its investigations into European pork and dairy products were ongoing.’
‘“At the same time, China is looking into raising tariffs on imported large engine petrol-powered vehicles,” the ministry added.’
‘The European Commission will challenge, at the WTO, the announced imposition of provisional anti-dumping measures by China on imports of brandy from the EU, said Olof Gill, the commission’s trade spokesman.’ 🇪🇺
China richt pijlen op Franse cognac, „Nederlands varkensvlees en zuivel kan ook geraakt worden” – BNR 🇪🇺
China’s hit at EU brandy sparks fear of all-out trade war – POLITICO Europe: ‘Paris accused China’s President Xi Jinping of breaking a promise he had made to French President Emmanuel Macron of not imposing temporary duties during a visit to Paris last May.’ 🇫🇷
商务部新闻发言人就对欧盟白兰地实施临时反倾销措施等问题答记者问 – 商务部新闻办公室：“同时，中方正在研究提高进口大排量燃油车关税等措施。中方将采取一切必要措施，坚定维护中国产业和企业正当权益。” 🇪🇺
De ‘aanstichter’ Frankrijk krijgt gelijk straf nu de Chinese autoriteiten uitvoering geven aan eerder ‘onderzoek’ door heffingen in te stellen op brandy. De tegenstemmers als Duitsland en Slowakije krijgen alsnog een waarschuwing bij de les te blijven in de vorm van onderzoek naar grote verbrandingsmotoren.
Exclusive: Brussels rejected China proposal for 30,000 euro minimum sales price in EV dispute – Reuters: ‘In rejecting the Chinese proposal, Brussels said at the time that it was not only about the prices carmakers charge for their China-made EVs, but also the subsidies they received producing them and removing the impact of such support payments.’ 🇪🇺
Europarlement diep verdeeld over hoe de auto-industrie te redden – FD 🇪🇺
China files complaint against Turkey at WTO over electric vehicle tariffs – Reuters 🇹🇷
Opinie: Europese tarieven op Chinese auto’s zijn maar een deel van de oplossing – Victor De Decker in De Tijd 🇪🇺
China’s EV subsidy boosts ‘golden week’ sales amid rush before incentives’ expiry – SCMP
UK steel industry calls for protectionist measures over glut driven by China – The Guardian 🇬🇧
China is oversupplying lithium to eliminate rivals, US official says – Reuters 🇺🇸
Tech War 💽💥
Asia to remain center of chip industry despite West’s push, ASML CEO says – Nikkei Asia 🇳🇱
De schaduwkant van een zonnepaneel – NRC: „Zonnepanelen uit China zijn goed voor de energietransitie, maar er is vaak ook veel mis mee. Zo zit er PFAS in en is bij de productie mogelijk sprake van dwangarbeid. En ze zijn erg slecht recyclebaar.”
Foxconn (Hon Hai 鴻海) building Nvidia superchip facility in Mexico, execs say – Reuters 🇲🇽
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Waarom China steeds vaker inzet op Afrikaanse studenten – MO*
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China aid agency commits emergency medical supplies to Lebanon amid worsening conflict – SCMP 🇱🇧
Military operations and violence will only push peace and stability further out of reach, Chinese spokesperson says – Xinhua: ‘The legitimate national rights of the Palestinian people need to be realized and the reasonable security concerns of Israel need to be paid attention to, said Mao.’ 🇵🇸🇮🇱
Is dit de eerste keer dat het Chinese ministerie van buitenlandse zaken verwijst naar de ‘redelijke veiligheidszorgen’ van Israël?
Chinese laser anti-drone system spotted in Iran – The Warzone: ‘The system was reportedly deployed as part of security measures around a rare public sermon by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.’ 🇮🇷
SCO summit in Pakistan later this month faces security concerns following Karachi attack – Nikkei Asia 🇵🇰
China calls on Pakistan to ‘severely punish’ attackers after two Chinese die in Karachi – SCMP 🇵🇰
Maldives pivots back toward India to ease China debt squeeze – Bloomberg 🇲🇻
China fires water cannons at Philippine boats that ‘invaded’ waters near Scarborough Shoal – SCMP 🇵🇭
Why are there China Navy ships in Penang’s waters? Don’t worry, visit just part of goodwill tour for closer ties – Malay Mail: ‘caused concerns among some in the social media’ 🇲🇾
China’s Pacific ally Kiribati criticises Beijing missile launch – Reuters 🇰🇮
Verenigde Staten 🇺🇸
Russia, China, and Iran intend to stoke false election validity claims, US officials warn – The New York Times: ‘trying to sway congressional races,’ ‘China’s efforts focused on undermining candidates who have been particularly vocal in their support of Taiwan.’ 🇺🇸
Kamala Harris silent on China, says no to direct talks with Putin in 60 Minutes interview – SCMP 🇺🇸
Raimondo speaks with China’s commerce minister, US Commerce Department says – Reuters 🇺🇸
China economie
China’s economic planner disappoints investors at anticipated news briefing, cooling markets – The Straits Times: ‘Analysts told The Straits Times that policymakers were using the NDRC briefing to calm overzealous investors to prevent a return to the previous structural problems, which had caused the current economic downturn.’
China said it’s confident in reaching its economic targets this year and promised further support for growth, although it held back in unleashing more stimulus – Boomberg: ‘China’s leaders aim to achieve around 5% growth this year, but economic data in recent months show that would be hard to reach’
European shares at two-week lows on China stimulus disappointment – Reuters
China mainland shares rise after holiday but Hong Kong index falls 10% – Nikkei Asia
Oil prices sink on worries over Chinese demand– FT
Fade the Chinese market euphoria? Investors need to see (much) more for this to be sustained – Ajay Rajadhyaksha for FT Alphaville: ‘the stock rally will eventually lose steam unless the underlying economy picks up. And here China still has a problem.’
The world-beating rally in Chinese stocks is failing to convince many global fund managers and strategists – Bloomberg
China binnenland
So, are you pregnant yet? The Chinese government’s in-your-face push for more babies – The New York Times: ‘Officials are not just going door to door to ask women about their plans. They have partnered with universities to develop courses on having a “positive view of marriage and childbearing.” At high-profile political gatherings, officials are spreading the message wherever they can.’
‘“Some people believe that marriage and childbirth are only private matters, and up to each individual. This view is wrong and one-sided,” a government-run family planning association in Mudanjiang’
‘The efforts to track and influence women’s fertility plans can begin even before marriage.’ ‘Officials remain involved throughout pregnancies, too. Government websites instruct women to register their pregnancies at community health centers’
‘Some cities require any woman who is 14 or more weeks pregnant to obtain permission from her local family planning department before obtaining an abortion.’
China expels ex-justice minister Táng Yījūn 唐一军 from Communist Party – Nikkei Asia: ‘The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection opened an investigation into Tang in April on suspicion of “serious disciplinary violations.”’
China’s former top legislator Wú Bāngguó 吴邦国 passes away at 84 – Xinhua: ‘During the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976), he held fast to Party principles, sought truth from facts and engaged in resistance with concrete actions.’
Book of Xi’s discourses on water management published – Xinhua
De Koning heeft concurrentie.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong denied entry to about 23,000 people in first 9 months of the year, immigration chief says – HKFP: ‘Kwok said the Immigration Department (ImmD) had compiled a “watch list” of unwelcomed individuals who were considered a risk to national security or Hong Kong’s social order.’
‘a new system had been implemented last month which required all airlines operating flights into Hong Kong to transfer passenger data to the ImmD prior to take-off.’
US tech firm Automattic issued notice by Hong Kong police to take down diaspora media site Flow HK on national security grounds – HKFP: ‘The company said it had not complied with the order and had notified the site owner.’
Lingnan University students’ union was ‘never’ part of the university, school’s president says – HKFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China likely to launch military drills around Taiwan after president’s national speech, Taiwanese sources say – Reuters: ‘“Our assessment is that no matter what Lai says on October 10, they might put a name on existing exercises and call it Joint Sword–2024B. That’s a possibility,” said a senior Taiwan security official, citing intelligence gathered by Taiwan and the government’s assessments on China’s likely moves.’ 🇨🇳
Premier Cho calls on China to exercise restraint in drills – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Ex-PM Asō Tarō 麻生 太郎 (LDP) calls Taiwan important ‘country’ for Japan in ceremony – Kyodo News 🇯🇵
Exploding pagers got ‘attention’ in Taiwan, bilateral ties strong, Israel envoy says – Reuters 🇮🇱
Next-generation fighter jets to be procured from US rather than indigenously developed – Taipei Times: ‘Defense officials also told lawmakers that deliveries of three arm sales packages remain delayed, including TOW-2B anti-tank missiles, AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapons and F-16V block 70 jets.’
RTX (formerly Raytheon) to pay Taiwan millions for arms price gouging – Taiwan News
Taiwan support is bipartisan, visiting US delegation says – Taipei Times 🇺🇸
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Cross-party talks on UN resolution motion break down – Taipei Times
Prosecutors appeal former lawmaker Lo Chih-ming 羅志明 and a navy officer’s acquittal in spying case – Taipei Times: ‘Evidence showed that Lo and Hsia were given the highest-level reception by Chinese provincial government officials at the alumni events, prosecutors said.’
Air Force member dies after shooting training mishap – Focus Taiwan