De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 6 maart: NOS, Twee Zittingen, Oekraïne, Filipijnen
Excuus voor de radiostilte van de afgelopen dagen. Ongelukkig getimed met het begin van de jaarlijkse Twee Zittingen was ik tijdelijk niet in staat om een nieuwsbrief te versturen.
Zitting één, het Nationaal Comité van de Politieke Consultatieve Conferentie van het Chinese Volk, begon maandag. Dit betreft het hoogste orgaan van het Verenigd Front en dient vooral ter consultatie en inperking van grassrootsleaders. Zitting twee, het Nationale Volkscongres (NPC), begon dinsdag. Het NPC is formeel het hoogste orgaan van de Chinese staat, de wetgever.
Premier Li Qiang heeft zijn werkrapport dinsdag voorgedragen en kwam met het ambitieuze groeidoel van ‘ongeveer 5%’. Nu komt mijn verwijzing naar het stuk van Michael Pettis waarin de Pekingse hoogleraar uitlegt dat het stellen van groeidoelen de groeicijfers tot invoer in plaats van uitvoer maakt en dus niet-productieve economische activiteit genereert, wat de Chinese BNP-cijfers minder betrouwbaar/nuttig maakt.
Ook dan blijft vijf procent ambitieus, gezien de staat van de economie. The Economist ziet de toekomstige bui al hangen, maar ook de huidige sentimenten blijven zwaar. De laatste cijfers voor 2023 suggereren dat de Chinese welvaartsgroei stokt.
Een van de manieren om dit te keren is het nieuwe concept ‘Nieuwe Productieve Krachten’. Xi Jinpings laatste hobbypaardje benadrukt ‘hoge kwaliteit ontwikkelingen’ en de nieuwe industrieën. Dit moet voortbouwen op de Chinese successen in elektrische auto’s, zonnepanelen en andere high-tech en cyber.
Xi benadrukt dat dit niet in conflict met de ‘traditionele’ industrie moet zijn. Maar in het verleden bleek het nastreven van economische groei op nieuwe gebieden vaak juist wel te leiden tot het verkleinen van de ‘domme’ industrieën. Dat raakte nog altijd tientallen miljoenen arbeiders, arbeiders die vaak ook niet de opleiding en/of vaardigheden beschikken om tot Nieuwe Productieve Kracht te worden.
De capaciteiten van de Chinese staat en de successen in China op het gebied van innovatie kun je niet ongestraft onderschatten. Maar de plannen lijken niet serieus te reageren op d groeiende structurele uitdagingen in het Chinese groeimodel. Als die Nieuwe Productieve Krachten net zo uitpakken als eerdere initiatieven, dan zal de groei van de tweedeling tussen en succesvolle en minder succesvolle deel van de Chinese beroepsbevolking nog verder versnellen.
Nederland 🇳🇱
‘The 🇳🇱 Consulate-General in Chongqing has officially closed its doors as of today, 1 March 2024. […]’ – Embassy of the Netherlands in Beijing, Twitter 🇳🇱
De arrestatie van de NOS-correspondent in China – Jan Paternotte (D66), Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal 🇳🇱
FCCC statement on harassment of reporters in Chengdu – The Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China:
The Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China is extremely disturbed by the treatment of Dutch journalists during a recent reporting trip in Chengdu. This incident comes amid widespread reports from FCCC members of increasing harassment and obstruction across China, as they try to fulfil their legally-protected role to report on the country.
Video from Dutch broadcaster NOS shows their correspondent being shoved to the ground and his bag taken from him by a man who later identified himself as a police officer, while the journalists were attempting to cover a demonstration outside a bank.
According to the NOS correspondent, he was subsequently surrounded by both plainclothes and uniformed police, who pushed him to the ground again and manhandled his cameraman, preventing him from continuing to record the incident. The correspondent repeatedly identified himself as a foreign journalist and showed his government-issued press ID.
Both he and his cameraman were eventually forced into a police car and taken to a local police station. Their phones and cameras were taken from them.
At the station, officers refused to allow the NOS correspondent to make a phone call and told him and his colleague to wait for officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
After several hours, with the assistance of MOFA representatives, the Dutch journalists were released from police custody, but when they left the station, they were tailed by multiple cars, further disrupting their reporting.
De president van Tibet in ballingschap Penpa Tsering is aangekomen in Amsterdam: „Oorlog in Oekraïne laat zien dat China ook risico voor jullie kan zijn” – Parool: „Penpa legt in de anderhalve dag dat hij in Nederland is geen politieke bezoeken af, maar focust zich enkel op ontmoetingen met de Tibetaanse gemeenschap.”
„Op 10 maart is de jaarlijkse herdenking: doorgaans bij de Chinese ambassade in Den Haag, maar dit jaar op de Dam in Amsterdam.” 🇳🇱
Antwoord op vragen van de leden Paternotte, Bamenga, Becker en Brekelman over het nieuwsbericht ‘Chinese overheid sponsort weekendles Chinees-Nederlandse kinderen’ – Mariëlle Paul, Hanke Bruins Slot en Karien van Gennip, Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal: „Het is niet verboden om andere waarden te onderwijzen dan de in Nederland gangbare waarden. Het kabinet is echter van oordeel dat, wanneer kinderen willens en wetens worden aangezet tot haat, geweld of discriminatie in het informele onderwijs, daartegen moet kunnen worden opgetreden. Mede in dat licht wordt gewerkt aan wettelijk toezicht op informeel onderwijs.” 🇳🇱
Bescherm de migrant voor lange arm van autoritaire regimes – Habib el Kaddouri, Alerk Ablikim en Thijs Reuten in NRC: „We zijn naïef en onverschillig en laten slachtoffers in de steek. Bijvoorbeeld toen de aangiftes vanuit de Oeigoerse gemeenschap van bedreiging, discriminatie en intimidatie door de Chinese overheid geseponeerd werden en het Openbaar Ministerie meedeelde dat ze niets voor de aangevers konden betekenen.” 🇳🇱
Europa 🇪🇺
EU reaches deal on forced labour ban, with China’s Xinjiang in its sights – SCMP 🇪🇺
Jaren aan gewerkt, bijna rond. Maar plots staat de Europese Wet verantwoord ondernemen op losse schroeven – NRC 🇪🇺
Uyghur students launch pressure campaign: The students have attacked ‘depth of denial’ at UK Universities – Varsity 🇬🇧
Spokesperson of the Chinese Mission to the EU Speaks on a Question Concerning China-related Content in the European Parliament’s Annual Report on Implementation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, 2023 – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union: ‘The China-related content in the European Parliament report constitutes a blatant disregard of international law and the basic norms governing international relations, a serious breach of China’s sovereignty, and a gross interference in China’s internal affairs. We are deeply shocked by these statements, over which we express our firm opposition and strongest condemnation.’ 🇪🇺
EU-China trade slips as Beijing ‘de-risks’ from the West – Euractiv: ‘Beijing is itself seeking strategic independence from the West’ 🇪🇺
EU’s leading party gets tough on China – POLITICO China Watcher: ‘Manifesto mentions: In a final draft of the party’s manifesto, obtained by POLITICO’s Peter Wilke, the EPP makes more than a dozen mentions of China and Taiwan — compared with 10 “Russia” references or the three (easily missable) name-drops of “strategic autonomy.”’
Romania refuses to license Huawei equipment for 5G applications – Romania-Insider.com 🇷🇴
EU wants deeper ties with Taiwan, argues visiting Estonian legislator – Taipei Times 🇪🇪
Oekraïne 🇺🇦
Special Representative of China on Eurasian Affairs Lǐ Huī 李辉 to conduct second round of shuttle diplomacy on seeking political settlement of the Ukraine crisis [sic] – Xinhua: ‘Li will visit Russia, the EU headquarters, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France’
Ukraine: EEAS Senior Officials meet Chinese Special Envoy – EEAS:
The EU expects China, as a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council, to play a constructive role and to use every occasion to uphold and promote the UN Charter and international law. The EU side stressed it expects China to call on to Russia to respect the principles of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity immediately and unconditionally by withdrawing all forces and military equipment from the entire territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders.
The EU side reiterated its serious concerns, which were also passed at the EU-China Summit on 7 December 2023, regarding significant volumes of dual use and advanced technology items being exported from China to Russia’s military industrial complex. In this context, the EU urged China to take effective steps within its jurisdiction to curb the flows of those most sensitive items.
Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs 李辉 Holds Talks with Officials of the European External Action Service – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China: ‘They had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on the crisis situation [sic] in Ukraine and the peace talks. […] Li Hui also said that China firmly opposes the EU’s inclusion of Chinese enterprises in the latest list of sanctions against Russia, urging the EU to unconditionally cancel the listing of Chinese enterprises and return to the right track of dialogue and consultation with China.’ 🇪🇺
Klinkt niet alsof het een gezellige bijeenkomst was.
Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Lǐ Huī 李辉 Holds Talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin Mikhail Yuryevich – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China: ‘Li Hui said that it has been two years since the full escalation [sic] of the Ukraine crisis [sic]. Historical experience shows that any conflict in the end has to be settled through negotiations. […] Galuzin agreed that the Ukraine crisis should ultimately be resolved through negotiations, and appreciated China’s unique and constructive role in this regard.’ 🇷🇺
Beijing appears to be giving Ukrainian diplomats in China the cold shoulder – Bloomberg 🇺🇦
Verteidigungsstrategie: Wie die Kommission die EU auf Kriegswirtschaft umstellen will – Der Spiegel: „Um Pulver herzustellen, brauche man eine bestimmte Art Baumwolle, sogenannte Nitrozellulose. Die aber komme leider überwiegend aus China – und dessen Lieferungen seien »wie zufällig« vor ein paar Monaten eingestellt worden.“ 🇪🇺
Voor de productie van buskuit heeft Europa nitrocellulose nodig, uit China. Dat is ‘toevallig’ niet leverbaar. NB: nitrocellulose uit Taiwan vindt toevallig wel zijn weg naar Rusland.
Drones and US-made computer chips are increasingly flowing to Russia from China through Central Asian trade routes – WSJ 🇷🇺
Twee Zittingen 两会
China mikt voor dit jaar op 5% groei en steunt economie met miljarden – FD
Ondanks economische tegenwind komt China met ambitieus groeicijfer: ‘Ongeveer 5 procent’ – de Volkskrant
China schroeft defensiebudget verder op en mikt op economische groei van 5 procent – Trouw
Xi eist dat China over 25 jaar industrieel wereldleider is – De Standaard
Xi gebruikt het Chinese parlement om zijn macht en legitimiteit te vergroten – NRC: „Xi wil namelijk China’s rechtssysteem uitbreiden – en als hoogste staatsorgaan en wetgevende macht is China’s parlement daarvoor een belangrijk instrument.”
China sets GDP growth target of ‘around 5%’ for 2024 – Nikkei Asia: ‘“The foundation for China's sustained economic recovery and growth is not solid enough,” Li acknowledged’
China [official] defence budget grows 7.2% despite other ‘belt-tightening’ – Nikkei Asia
Terwijl NAVO-landen soms dingen meerekenen die eigenlijk niet tellen om de twee procent te kunnen halen, telt Peking juist dingen niet mee om (véél) lager uit te komen.
‘Two sessions’ 2024: Premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 vows China’s ‘new type’ of diplomacy will pursue equality and order – SCMP
China makes science and tech a budget priority with 10% jump in spending – SCMP
China Govt Work Report: Analysis & Official Interpretation – Pekingnology ‘By Chinese law, it remains a draft awaiting review and adoption at the session and the official release by Xinhua News Agency.’
De nieuwsbrief van een voormalige Xinhua-journalist heeft een pdf met vertaling van het dus nog niet aangenomen en gepubliceerde werkrapport.
Taiwan
China’s top leaders adopt measured and succinct tone on Taiwan at Two Sessions meetings – The Straits Times
Chinese Premier Li Qiang raises threat of ‘external interference’ in Taiwan during first ‘two sessions’ work report – SCMP: ‘Sung Wen-ti, a political scientist at the Australian National University, said the phrase also reflected Beijing’s concerns over the “internationalisation” of the Taiwan issue.’
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council urges dialogue as PRC talks tough – Taipei Times: ‘China’s rubber-stamp parliament also dropped the descriptor “peaceful” from the report’s call for “reunification,” adding instead that it wants to “be firm” in doing so.’
achtergrond
Strenge censuur van economisch nieuws kan niet verhinderen dat de onvrede in China toeneemt – de Volkskrant
China’s new economic agenda, a lot like the old one: takeaways – The New York Times
China will struggle to meet its new growth target – The Economist
China unlikely to get new foreign minister at Two Sessions – The Straits Times: ‘appointment of personnel was not on the agenda’
China ends 30-year tradition: premier’s annual press conference – Reuters
Smiles, a few words … China’s new premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 makes his debut next to Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 – SCMP
New Productive Forces
Xi Focus: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 stresses developing new quality productive forces – Xinhua
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s theory [on the New Productive Forces 新质生产力] offers path to innovation – China Daily
China’s ‘new productive forces’ concept offers fresh hope and impetus for economic transformation – Zhou Xin for SCMP
Filipijnen 🇵🇭
Philippine and Chinese vessels collide in disputed South China Sea and 4 Filipino crew are injured – AP
‘WATCH: The windshield of 🇵🇭Philippine boat Unaizah May 4 shatters as 🇨🇳China Coast Guard vessels fire water canon at it during its rotation and reprovisioning mission to BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal on Tuesday, March 5. 🎥: Armed Forces of the Philippines. @gmanews’ – Joviland Rita, Twitter
Wanneer wordt een waterkanon een wapen?
Chinese navy’s presence in South China Sea is ‘worrisome’, says Philippine president – Reuters
Philippines blames China Coast Guard for South China Sea collisions – Nikkei Asia
Tech War 💽💥
Europe’s chips research champion is cutting China ties: Belgium-based Imec is key to Europe’s microchips leadership – POLITICO Europe: ‘Imec has "drastically reduced" its Chinese partnerships, the Flemish Economy Ministry, which oversees the microchips research center, told POLITICO.’ 🇧🇪
US bill would ban TikTok from app stores unless ByteDance 字节跳动 divests it – FT: ‘President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign has started using the video streaming service to try to connect with young voters’ 🇺🇸
US will investigate potential data and cybersecurity risks in Chinese electric vehicles as officials consider curbs – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
BYD 比亚迪 to deploy fleet of 8 car carriers to underpin global EV expansion – Nikkei Asia
Chipproducent AMD loopt weer tegen exportbeperking naar China aan – FD 🇺🇸
Executive Order on Preventing Access to Americans’ Bulk Sensitive Personal Data and United States Government-Related Data by Countries of Concern – The White House 🇺🇸
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Australia’s domestic spy chief has revealed a foreign regime recruited a former lawmaker as part of a plan to access classified information via high profile figures, including a member of a prime minister’s family – Bloomberg 🇦🇺
ASIO reveals plot by retired politician to introduce a prime minister’s family member to foreign spies – ABC News 🇦🇺
Vergrijzende Chinese bevolking moet af van relatief vroeg pensioen – Trouw
Het conflict in de Rode Zee dwingt India tot een grotere rol in de Indo-Pacific – NRC: „Wel ziet Ollongren India als mogelijke partner ,in onze zorg over China’.” 🇮🇳
De achilleshiel van de NAVO: „We leven niet in een naoorlogs tijdperk, maar in een vooroorlogse periode” – NRC 🇪🇺
Europese defensie moet naar staat van paraatheid, zegt Brussel. „Het gaat om bescherming van onze burgers” – de Volkskrant 🇪🇺
US seeks to revive idled shipyards with help of Japan and South Korea – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
Japanese Self-Defence Forces watching China amid multilateral drills; Japan seeks to strengthen ties with democratic nations – The Yomiuri Shimbun 🇯🇵
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China urges largest nuclear states to negotiate a ‘no-first-use’ treaty – Reuters: ‘China and India are currently the only two nuclear powers to formally maintain a no first use policy.’
Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike – FT: ‘describe a threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons that is lower than Russia has ever publicly admitted’ ‘include training scenarios for an invasion by China.’ 🇷🇺
Philippines and US to hold annual Balikatan military drills in islands facing South China Sea and Taiwan – Reuters 🇺🇸🇵🇭
Maldives signs military assistance deal with China as India prepares exit – AFP 🇲🇻
Scientist fed classified information to China, says Canada intelligence report – The Guardian 🇨🇦
UN human rights chief says China is violating ‘fundamental rights’ in Xinjiang and Tibet – AFP 🇺🇳
China’s UN envoy warns escalated Israel-Gaza war could spillover into Syria, worsen humanitarian crisis – SCMP 🇮🇱🇵🇸🇸🇾
China economie
China slips further from high-income status as earnings measure dips 0.1% – Nikkei Asia: ‘China’s per capita gross national income declined in dollar terms for the first time in 29 years in 2023, government data released Thursday shows’
China’s factory activity contracts for fifth straight month – Nikkei Asia
Country Garden 碧桂园, whose debt crunch shook China’s financial markets, receives a wind-up petition in Hong Kong for the first time – Bloomberg
Explainer: Country Garden 碧桂园: How bad are its debt problems? – Reuters
Chinese regulators are taking steps to gradually shrink the size of a popular quantitative trading strategy that contributed to turmoil in the nation’s stock market this month, sources say – Bloomberg
China’s big stock-market declines aren’t enough to warrant putting money in the country, according to the CIO of Goldman Sachs’ wealth-management business – Bloomberg
China urged by foreign chambers of commerce to take firmer hand with private sector support – SCMP
China tells bankers to be more patriotic Financiers from 200 years ago are wheeled out as role models – The Economist’s Chaguan
China’s food delivery market explodes to CN¥1.5 trillion [€192bn] as workers scrape by – Nikkei Asia
Trend van groeiende informele economie in China, waar vaste fabrieksbanen vervangen worden door onregelmatige platformeconomiebanen
China binnenland
De fraude van Sichuan Trust: mondige Chinezen schrijven zelfs de president om hun recht te krijgen – FD
Rocket maker boss Feng Jiehong ‘resigns’ from China legislature ahead of Two Sessions 2024 – SCMP
Hong Kong
Hong Kong scraps property tightening measures to aid economic recovery – Reuters
Singapore-China visa deal has minimal impact on Hong Kong, observers say – The Straits Times: ‘Hong Kong’s key advantage in proximity to the mainland over Singapore has not been erased’ 🇸🇬
Taiwan en China
China tightens squeeze on Taiwan as new flight routes close to key dividing line add to pressure on air defences – SCMP: ‘The two new routes are extensions of an existing controversial flight path’
‘Once launched, [Chinese] planes could more easily stay over the line, a move analysts said would put more strain on the island’s air defences because of the need to distinguish between military and civilian planes and reduce the time available to respond to any attack.’
DPP claims KMT vice chair Andrew Hsia 夏立言 of ‘colluding’ with China during Shanghai meeting with top officials of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office and blaming Taiwan coast guard – Taipei Times
Naming of Kinmen boat collision report sparks disorder in Legislature – Focus Taiwan
De CCP en KMT zoeken de schuld bij de Taiwanese kustwacht, de DPP bij China.
China says its coast guard patrols around Taiwan islands ‘beyond reproach’ – Reuters
Eleven Chinese vessels detected around Kinmen – Taipei Times
Taiwanese coast guard rejects RW News report about needing navy to drive off Chinese ships – Taipei Times
Chinese defence ministry refutes validity of ‘Taiwan Strait’s median line’ – Xinhua
Chinese hackers target Taiwan think tank before elections, cybersecurity firm says – Taipei Times: ‘Trend Micro identified a paper titled “China’s gray zone warfare against Taiwan,” reportedly stolen from a Taiwanese geopolitical expert, as the source of the infection, which was sent by Earth Lusca via e-mail.’
Chinese military honours indication of Taiwan Strait, focus, says Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council – Taipei Times
Taiwan to increase missile drills this year amid China threats – Reuters
Former legislative candidate Ma Chih-wei 馬治薇 indicted over ties to China – Taipei Times
Reunification Alliance Party officials indicted in election graft case – Focus Taiwan
台中228理事長為盧秀燕抱屈 陳恆裕遭爆曾任「統一聯盟黨」中央委員 – 自由時報
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Labour minister Hsu Ming-chun 許銘春 (DPP) sorry for Indian worker comments labelled racist – Taipei Times 🇮🇳
Taiwan-Indonesia distant water fisher labour rights MOU talks stall – Taipei Times 🇮🇩
Taiwan and US pledge to continue cooperation on trade initiative – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
Taiwan’s foreign ministry mulling more offices in Africa – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
KMT puts forward controversial legislator Ma Wen-chun for defence committee, former TPP spokesperson faces prosecution – New Bloom: ‘Ma is a controversial pick, due to having filed 135 motions to suspend or cut defense spending in the last legislative session. To this extent, Ma is accused of having attempted to sabotage Taiwan’s domestic submarine program by leaking information to the Chinese and South Korean governments.’
DPP and KMT dominate legislative committee votes – Taipei Times
President Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 outlines transitional justice efforts at 2.28 Incident 二二八事件 memorial – Focus Taiwan
7 years after 228, quest for transitional justice goes on – Focus Taiwan: ‘According to Pan, allowing the statue and the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall to remain means that the DPP has “only done half a good deed.”’
77 years after 2.28, much remains to be done for transitional justice in Taiwan – New Bloom: ‘Apart from its narrative regarding the “Green Terror,” the KMT currently proposes reviving the Special Investigation Division of the Ministry of Justice, with the aim of using it to target DPP politicians. When in power, the KMT also tried to curb the teaching of the White Terror in schools’
‘Facing up to history’: relatives of Taiwan’s 2-28 massacre victims demand official reckoning – The Guardian: ‘Historical estimates say between 18,000 and 28,000 people were killed or disappeared after anti-government protests began on 28 February in Taipei and spread across the country.’
De KMT bestaat nog en weigert verantwoordelijkheid te nemen en er zijn eigenlijk geen daders vervolgd.
Hsinchu County Commissioner Yang Wen-ke 楊文科 (KMT) released after questioning – Taipei Times
Taipei prosecutors indict 7 for stealing ID numbers in Terry Gou 郭台銘 signature-buying case – Focus Taiwan
Six of Taiwan’s 22 regions are ‘super-aged’ – Taipei Times