De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 5 februari: wereldhandelsconflict
De door mij maandag uitgeroepen wereldhandelsoorlog is deels terug naar de onderhandelingstafel. Canada en Mexico hebben uitstel gekregen na relatief loze beloftes over grensbewaking. China heeft een groot aantal tegenmaatregelen aangekondigd, maar die gaan pas 10 februari. Experts zien hierin een openingsbod van Peking in onderhandelingen voor een deal.
Het is nu de vraag of de onderhandelingen tussen de betrokken partijen gaan lukken. Trump zegt in ieder geval geen haast te hebben om met Xi Jinping te spreken. Ondertussen dreigt hij de Europese Unie ook met heffingen. Ondertussen gaan de uitspraken over Groenland en Europese regulering van techbedrijven door. Het lijkt dat Brussel ook z’n borst nat mag maken.
Noah Barkin in zijn nieuwsbrief, Finbarr Bermingham in SCMP, Gideon Rachman in FT en David Rennie in The Economist vragen aandacht voor een voorspelbare consequentie: de Europese Commissie is vriendelijker richting China. De economische dreigementen van Trump en politieke dreigementen van de techmiljardairs zijn veel onmiddellijker dan wat Peking doet. Nu al duiken signalen op in toespraken van Von der Leyen en Šefčovič.
Voor landen in Azië, met name Taiwan en de Filipijnen, is China het grootste onmiddellijke gevaar. Dat gevaar neemt alleen maar toe met de groeiende chaos in zowel de Amerikaanse als Taiwanese politiek. Voor Europa lijkt dat echter, naar mijn mening, voorlopig en op de kortere termijn nu de Verenigde Staten onder Trump en Musk te zijn.
Dit betekent niet dat Brussel ineens een heel ander Chinabeleid zou moeten voeren. De plannen van de eerste commissie van Von der Leyen waren vaak gericht om de Unie structureel klaar te maken voor de Chinese uitdaging. De dreiging voor de Europese industrie is groot. Tegelijkertijd is het lastig om je daarop te richten met wat er nu uit de VS dreigt. Xi Jinping zal vol zelfvertrouwen zijn. Zijn marxistisch-wetenschappelijke voorspelling dat China de ‘trend van de geschiedenis’ meeheeft, dat het Oosten in opkomst is, zal hij bevestigd zien. Bronnen van verschillende journalisten laten zien dat men in Brussel ook al nadenkt over meebuigen.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Watching China in Europe—February 2025 – Noah Barkin: ‘As one EU official told me, “It will be a problem if the US message is ‘You are going do what we want on China, but we will pursue a deal with Beijing and hit you at the same time.’”’
‘And so, Europe is tentatively preparing to pivot. I was told that early versions of von der Leyen’s speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos in late January were quite hawkish on China. At the last minute, however, she decided to include a sentence describing this year’s 50th anniversary of EU relations with the People’s Republic of China as “an opportunity to engage and deepen our relationship with China—and where possible even to expand our trade and investment ties”. The change in tone took some senior officials in Brussels by surprise. But Šefčovič repeated the line at a hearing of the European Parliament’s trade committee last week’
‘“We are not going to fight a two-front trade war,” one EU diplomat said, when explaining the new language on China.’ 🇪🇺
Wat hadden de Amerikanen dan verwacht?
‘Friedrich Merz, the conservative frontrunner in the German election, was doing the exact opposite in a foreign policy speech he gave in Berlin two days after her appearance in Davos. I was told that Merz intervened personally to sharpen the language on China.’ 🇩🇪
EU shifting tone of stance on China as it prepares for frictions with US – SCMP: ‘Von der Leyen’s rhetorical shift is regarded as an effort to remind Washington that Europe has other options.’ 🇪🇺
Trump is sowing the seeds of an anti-American alliance – Gideon Rachman in FT: ‘Some influential Europeans are even asking whether the US or China is now the more direct threat.’ 🇪🇺
Allies will not appease Donald Trump forever – The Economist’s The Telegram: ‘Avoiding fights is an initial, tactical response. A second plan involves buying him off, explain senior figures in Brussels.’ ‘But the moment that Mr Trump convinces allies that their favoured world order is dead, their incentives will reverse. With nothing to lose, even friendly European governments will try to deceive, resist and hedge against a hostile America. Already, influential voices in Brussels, Berlin and other capitals murmur that Europe should draw closer to China.’ 🇪🇺
French cognac exports to China slump as tariffs bite – AFP: ‘the number of bottles sold to China fell by 9.6 percent last year, representing a loss of 23.8 percent in value.’ 🇪🇺🇫🇷
Taiwan firms donate 1.11 million face masks to Ukraine and Estonia – Focus Taiwan: ‘for frontline battlefield personnel and workers at medical institutions.’ 🇺🇦🇪🇪
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📊💥
China vergeldt heffingen Trump, maar gaat daarbij voorzichtig te werk – NOS 🇨🇳🇺🇸
Deze Chinese maatregelen doen de Verenigde Staten nog niet écht pijn – NRC 🇨🇳🇺🇸
China hits back at Trump’s tariffs and complains to the WTO – POLITICO Europe: ‘announcing levies of 15 percent on U.S. liquefied natural gas and coal, and 10 percent on crude oil, farm equipment and some autos.’ ‘Beijing also set further export controls on rare metals, and announced an anti-monopoly investigation into Google’
‘The Chinese measures will take effect on Feb. 10, leaving time for Trump to talk to President Xi Jinping about how to avoid further trade escalation.’ 🇨🇳🇺🇸
Beijing is readying an opening bid to try to head off tariff increases and other sanctions from the Trump administration – WSJ: ‘China’s initial proposal will center on restoring a trade agreement Beijing signed in early 2020 with the first Trump administration but didn’t implement. The so-called Phase One deal’
‘Other parts of China’s plan, the people said, include an offer to make more investments in the U.S.[…], a renewed pledge by Beijing not to devalue the yuan to gain competitive advantage, and a commitment to reduce exports of fentanyl precursors.’
‘Hoping to set a positive tone, Beijing also plans to treat TikTok largely as a “commercial matter,” the people said’ 🇨🇳🇺🇸
Trump said his administration plans to speak with China, raising the possibility of a potential reprieve on a 10% tariff set to take effect after he delayed levies on Canada and Mexico – Bloomberg: ‘on Monday, Trump said talks with China would take place “probably over the next 24 hours.”’ 🇺🇸🇨🇳
Trump in ‘no rush’ to talk to Chinese leader – POLITICO: ‘The delay is a signal that both countries might not reach an agreement in the near future. It also conflicts with a quicker timeline suggested by Trump’s White House adviser Peter Navarro’ 🇺🇸🇨🇳
US Postal Service suspends incoming packages from China, Hong Kong – Reuters 🇺🇸🇨🇳
China’s commerce ministry files complaint with WTO against US tariff hikes – Xinhua 🇨🇳🇺🇸
China’s customs to impose additional tariffs on certain US products – Xinhua: ‘starting from Feb. 10’ 🇨🇳🇺🇸
China’s commerce ministry and customs announce export controls on items related to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium – Xinhua: ‘The policy comes into effect on Tuesday’ 🇨🇳🇺🇸
China’s commerce ministry adds two US firms to unreliable entity list – Xinhua: ‘namely PVH Corp. and Illumina, Inc.’ 🇨🇳🇺🇸
China’s market regulator launches probes into Google over suspected anti-monopoly law violation – Xinhua 🇨🇳🇺🇸
China’s exporters to step up offshoring to beat Donald Trump’s tariffs – FT: ‘companies in China’s southern manufacturing heartlands said their strategies included moving some production to locations including the Middle East’ 🇨🇳🇺🇸
Facing Trump tariffs, China’s exporters hunker down for long, winding Year of the Snake – SCMP 🇨🇳🇺🇸
EU wants early US talks to avert Trump tariffs – Reuters: ‘[Von der Leyen] said the EU was ready for tough negotiations to work out grievances and set the foundations for a stronger partnership.’ ‘Von der Leyen and Trump have not been in contact since Trump's inauguration.’ 🇪🇺🇺🇸
China could win big from transatlantic trade war, EU leaders warn Trump – SCMP 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EU pushes forward with enforcing AI Act despite Donald Trump’s warnings – FT 🇪🇺🇺🇸
US Vice President Vance will attend AI summit in Paris, says French diplomatic source – Reuters 🇺🇸🇪🇺
Germany’s Scholz slams Trump’s ‘self-centred’ bid to link Ukraine military aid to rare earths access – POLITICO Europe: ‘Scholz said that Ukraine needs its natural resources to finance post-war rebuilding, not to bargain for security assistance.’ 🇺🇦🇪🇺
Malaysia PM Anwar says will build trade relations, not wait for US tariffs – Reuters: ‘such as China, Russia and Brazil’ 🇲🇾🇺🇸
President Donald Trump agrees to delay 25% tariffs against Mexico for one month after a conversation with Claudia Sheinbaum, a dramatic turnabout with the neighbouring nations on the brink of a trade war – Bloomberg 🇲🇽🇺🇸
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says that new US tariffs would be paused 30 days after a call with President Donald Trump – Bloomberg 🇨🇦🇺🇸
Trump 🇺🇸🟠
Inside Musk’s aggressive incursion into the US federal government – The New York Times: ‘Empowered by President Trump, Mr. Musk is waging a largely unchecked war against the federal bureaucracy — one that has already had far-reaching consequences.’
‘There is no precedent for a government official to have Mr. Musk’s scale of conflicts of interest, which include domestic holdings and foreign connections such as business relationships in China.’ 🇺🇸
Trump administration taps right-wing ideologue for senior State Department job – Reuters: ‘with a history of doubts over U.S. foreign policy towards Taiwan and inflammatory comments on women and minorities’ 🇺🇸
US State Department fires about 60 contractors working on democracy and human rights – The New York Times: ‘a division whose programs have often been criticized by authoritarian leaders’ 🇺🇸
China’s ambassador to Panama slams US for stirring ‘tropical storm’ with Marco Rubio visit – SCMP 🇵🇦
Taiwan in talks with US over military assistance freeze, representative Alexander Yui 俞大㵢 says – Taipei Times 🇺🇸
China’s Belt and Road could fill ‘vacuum’ after Trump’s USAID freeze, analysts say – SCMP
Is Marco Rubio pivoting from China hawk to pragmatist? – Robert Delaney for SCMP 🇺🇸
Techoorlog 💽💥
Toyota 豊田 to set up wholly owned EV and battery unit in China – Reuters: ‘for the Lexus brand, with production set to start in 2027’ 🇯🇵
NXP schrapt tientallen banen in Nederland vanwege zwakke automarkt – FD 🇳🇱
Singaporese staatsinvesteringsmaatschappij Temasek koopt Nijmeegse chipmachinebouwer Trymax – FD: „[Temaseks] Accuron heeft de afgelopen jaren meer chipmachinefabrikanten overgenomen in Europa, waaronder een aantal in Duitsland en Oostenrijk.” 🇳🇱🇸🇬
Nog geen verbod op DeepSeek 深度求索 in Nederland, wel verder onderzoek – RTL Nieuws 🇳🇱
OpenAI’s Altman says ‘no plans’ to sue China’s DeepSeek 深度求索 – AFP 🇺🇸
DeepSeek 深度求索’s success gives Chinese firms jolt as Beijing seeks sanction-beating breakthroughs – SCMP
Tech war: China’s chip firms embrace DeepSeek 深度求索 in AI self-sufficiency drive – SCMP
Trump orders creation of US sovereign wealth fund, says it could buy TikTok – Reuters 🇺🇸
Ex-Google engineer faces new US charges he stole AI secrets for Chinese companies – Reuters 🇺🇸
China’s universities and state-backed labs provide a lifeline for US-blacklisted chip suppliers – Nikkei Asia
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Met Trump op ramkoers wint China aan geloofwaardigheid als het redelijke alternatief – Trouw 🇺🇸
Von der Leyen signals ‘extraordinary’ measure to boost EU defence spending – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Trump says he wants US to take over Gaza Strip – Xinhua: ‘after Palestinians are relocated [sic] elsewhere.’ 🇵🇸🇺🇸
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
As China takes the gavel at the UN Security Council, its envoy has words for the US – SCMP 🇺🇸
Thailand government orders power to be cut to Myanmar town home to scam centres before prime minister’s China trip – Nikkei Asia 🇹🇭🇲🇲
Thai PM visits China with eyes on strengthening cooperation and restoring tourist confidence – Xinhua 🇹🇭
Philippines and US hold joint air patrol over South China Sea, angering China – Reuters: ‘The one-day exercise by the treaty allies took place in the West Philippine Sea’ 🇵🇭🇺🇸
PLA Air Force conducts routine patrol over Huangyan Dao [Scarborough Shoal] – Xinhua 🇵🇭
China-Pakistan ties: presidents to focus on terrorism and economy amid security issues – SCMP 🇵🇰
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 holds talks with Kyrgyz president – Xinhua 🇰🇬
Cook Islands’ deal with China takes New Zealand Government by surprise – 1News: ‘a potential breach of constitutional arrangements between the Cooks and Aotearoa.’ 🇨🇰🇳🇿
New unreported submarine in China leaves West guessing – Naval News
China economie
Chinese developer Sino-Ocean 远洋’s debt plan wins court approval in UK – SCMP 🇬🇧
China binnenland
China’s Chang’e-7 mission to send flying robot to moon’s south pole to look for water – SCMP
Hong Kong
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council issues report on Hong Kong – Taipei Times 🇹🇼
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
AIT Chair Fired? Laura Rosenberger moved to the ‘former chair’ section on American Institute in Taiwan’s website – Domino Theory 🇺🇸
President Lai reassures PRC-based Taiwanese entrepreneurs at SEF new year event –Taipei Times: ‘Mainland Affairs Council Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) told reporters on the sidelines of the event that the council rejected all applications for entry filed by the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) in Shanghai because it had maliciously blocked Taiwanese businesspeople from returning to the country to attend the event’ 🇨🇳
Lack of safeguards in legislature poses national security threat, DPP lawmaker Wang Ting-yu 王定宇 says – Taipei Times
Taiwan welcomes new Somaliland envoy – Focus Taiwan: ‘Before taking up the post in Taipei, Galaal served as Somaliland’s representative to Ethiopia as well as its minister of planning and health minister.’
Training begins for US-made M1A2T Abrams tanks, source says – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Public health should transcend party lines, President Lai says – Focus Taiwan: ‘urging the opposition-controlled Legislature to give related budgeted cuts and freezes a second thought.’
Academia Sinica’s head criticises cut to its budget – Taipei Times
KMT aims to benefit wealthy seniors at threat to National Health Insurance system in pork barrel policy – New Bloom: ‘Recent moves by the KMT […] will also lead to the end of rental subsidies for 750,000 individuals. […] despite the fact that housing remains unaffordable for most young people’
Prosecutors appeal Yilan magistrate’s ‘overly lenient’ verdict – Focus Taiwan: ‘Lin Zi-miao (林姿妙), sentenced to 12.5 years in prison for giving a tax waiver to a Luodong Township landowner’
Taiwan Railway posts losses of NT$13.79 billion [€410m] in 1st year as company – Focus Taiwan