De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 31 januari: Evergrande, Artikel 23 in Hong Kong
Twee keer groot nieuws uit Hong Kong. Een rechter verklaarde vastgigant China Evergrande failliet. Zoals bij zoveel Chinese bedrijven die buiten het Vasteland op de beurs genoteerd staan, is de juridische connectie met de werkelijke corporatie in China zelf niet helemaal duidelijk. Wat de gevolg van de uitspraak zal zijn in het Vasteland en hoeveel er terug te halen valt moeten we nog zien.
Verder: de lokale regering publiceerde een zorgwekkend wetsvoorstel die invulling moet geven aan het beruchte Artikel 23 van de Basiswet die de voormalig autonome zelfbestuur regelt. Deze lokale tegenhanger van de door China nationaal ingestelde staatsveiligheidswet bevat veel zorgelijk, onder andere een Chinese definitie van staatsgeheimen.
Excuses voor de vertraging, ik was druk gisteren.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
In German trade, US may surpass China in 2024 amid geopolitical tensions and weak investments – SCMP 🇩🇪
European Union forum on Indo-Pacific will lack US and China, which were not invited – SCMP: ‘Britain has also been left off the invitation list.’ 🇪🇺
EU’s drug-busting ports alliance excludes Chinese-owned Piraeus – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Lithuania bars soldiers and police officers from travelling to Russia, Belarus, and China – BNS 🇱🇹
New China defence minister Dǒng Jūn 董军 holds video talks with Russia’s Shoigu – Reuters 🇷🇺
Evergrande 恒大
Rechter beveelt liquidatie van Chinees vastgoedbedrijf Evergrande 恒大 – NRC: „Het rechtssysteem van Hongkong opereert in principe gescheiden van China, terwijl de meeste bouwwerkzaamheden en andere activiteiten van Evergrande zich op het Chinese vasteland afspelen. Het is nog onduidelijk of Chinese rechtbanken het vonnis zullen erkennen.”
Explainer: What happens next after China Evergrande 中国恒大 ordered to liquidate? – Reuters: ‘Insolvency experts said it would be a challenge for the liquidator to change the representatives as Guangzhou, where Evergrande is based, is not one of the three Chinese cities that mutually recognise liquidation orders with Hong Kong.’
China Evergrande 中国恒大 liquidation to test Hong Kong’s legal reach – FT: ‘Evergrande is a sprawling collection of companies based onshore and offshore’
‘China Evergrande Group, the entity that is subject to the winding-up order, is a Hong Kong-based holding company that is one of the wider group’s “main offshore financing platforms”, according to court documents.’
‘The vast majority of the company’s funds are believed to have flowed into real estate projects across the border, where 90 per cent of its assets are based and where liquidations require separate approval from a mainland court.’
‘Shawn Siu, interim chief executive of Hengda, responded to the liquidation order on Monday by emphasising that the subject was listed in Hong Kong and that the domestic subsidiaries remained independent, raising uncertainty over what assets creditors could seize.’
China Evergrande 中国恒大 creditors are set to recover just a fraction of the billions of dollars worth of the builder’s debt they hold, with most of its assets likely hard to access for liquidators – Bloomberg
Hong Kong Artikel 23 🇭🇰🇨🇳
Hong Kong begins public consultation for new, homegrown security law Article 23 – HKFP: ‘[John Lee] later added: “This is a law that tells people not to attack us [sic], this is in a way a defensive law.”’
Wie is ‘us’?
Hong Kong’s new national security law seeks to criminalise ‘external interference’ and cyber attacks – HFKP
Dit is slecht nieuws, omdat de Hongkongse regering zegt te geloven dat achter de protesten en ontevredenheid buitenlandse inmenging en manipulatie zit.
Hong Kong’s homegrown security law seeks to define ‘state secrets’ along China’s legislative line – HKFP
Dit is slecht nieuws, omdat in China ‘staatsgeheim’ op allerlei dingen kan slaan, waardoor zakenmensen en journalisten ook gevaar lopen bij normale taken van hun dagelijkse werk.
Tech War 💽💥
China EV price war spreads to gas-fuelled cars, denting foreign brands – Nikkei Asia
Home-grown quantum computer a milestone in Taiwan tech progress, says president Tsai – Focus Taiwan
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
China’s abductions of foreign nationals should carry costs and consequences – Michael Kovrig for POLITICO Europe
Global trade: the looming tensions over China’s subsidies – FT: ‘The emergence of China’s “new three” and other industries that were developed with heavy state subsidies is bringing to a head a clash between the Chinese economic system, which closely marries state policy and financial support with an aggressive private sector, and the market-orientated capitalism of developed countries.’
‘“China was the original ‘de-risker’,” says Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. “It’s no secret that China has been talking about self-reliance for a very long time.”’
‘“Everybody has an endless supply of loans and support from the local government and that’s why normally, whenever China scales up, at the end, it becomes very cheap and then it has only one rescue mechanism. That safety valve is called exports,” [Jörg Wuttke] says, adding it was the Chinese taxpayer who ends up footing the bill.’ ‘“You can’t compete against an economy which in essence is always only opening up when actually the train’s already left the station,” he says.’
‘Chinese policymakers and businessmen often see foreign complaints as sour grapes. One western executive recalls how, at a meeting of Chinese and European businesspeople in Brussels last year, an official from one of Beijing’s state-owned enterprises started lecturing the gathering on how Europe had lost its “Protestant work ethic”. “There really seemed to be the perception right there that Europe is being lazy,” the western executive says. This was despite the fact that Europe’s productivity levels remain higher than China’s, he adds.’
China’s growth model pushes Beijing into more trade conflicts – Reuters
Japan and Germany sign acquisition and cross-servicing agreement (ACSA) to share fuel and ammunition – Jiji Press 🇯🇵🇩🇪
EU stopped Mercosur talks, France says as French farmers ramp up protests – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China hopes for effective implementation of ICJ ruling, says foreign ministry spokesperson – Xinhua: ‘Wang said that the ultimate answer to the Palestinian question lies in delivering on the two-state solution’ 🇵🇸
Exclusive: US disabled Chinese hacking network targeting critical infrastructure – Reuters: ‘Sources said U.S. officials are concerned the hackers were working to hurt U.S. readiness in case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.’ 🇺🇸
US and China worked to lower Taiwan election risks, Sullivan says – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
US says fentanyl talks with China ‘meaningful’ but more needs to be done – Reuters 🇺🇸
Donald Trump is preparing for a massive new trade war with China – The Washington Post: ‘Publicly, the GOP front-runner has endorsed downgrading China’s trade status with the United States’ ‘Privately, Trump has discussed with advisers the possibility of imposing a flat 60 percent tariff on all Chinese imports’ 🇺🇸
Vaticaan en China akkoord over nieuwe bisschoppen en bisdom – Kerknet 🇻🇦
Russia warship conducts anti-submarine drill in South China Sea, agencies report – Reuters 🇷🇺
Vietnam and Philippines sign deal on South China Sea security – Nikkei Asia 🇻🇳🇵🇭
China and Papua New Guinea in talks on policing, security cooperation, minister says – Reuters 🇵🇬
China’s J-10CE vs Eurofighter Typhoon: jets face off in Pakistan-Qatar air drills – SCMP 🇵🇰🇶🇦
China economie
China’s censorship dragnet targets critics of the economy – The New York Times
China’s state press agency Xinhua removes article on ‘merger’ of three bad-debt managers with CIC 中投 – Bloomberg
Chinese vice-premier Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 urges support for listed firms to help stabilise battered stock market – SCMP
Top hedge funds’ sudden demise sends a warning to fellow China optimists: stick to your guns at your peril – Bloomberg
China’s manufacturing activity contracts for fourth month as economic recovery lags – FT
China factory activity shrinks less sharply ahead of Lunar New Year – Nikkei Asia
China’s industrial profits set for rebound in 2024, increase as much as 11% due to improved US export outlook – SCMP
China’s real estate crisis ‘has not touched bottom’ – The New York Times
China’s real estate financing white list will target specific projects, not developers – Yicai Global
China’s Guangzhou first to completely ease purchase limit on large homes – Reuters
Shanghai further eases curbs on home purchases, in boost for market – The Global Times
China’s Suzhou does away with all home-buying limits – Yicai Global
Nog altijd vooral bezig met de aanbodkant i.p.v. vraagkant
China Focus: China ushers in new consumption scenarios ahead of Spring Festival – Xinhua
Een opsomming van de uitbreiding van plekken waar je dingen kunt kopen voor het Chinees Nieuwjaar is toch wel wat teleurstellend voor de investeerders die hoopten op fiscale stimulans.
Chinese students abroad are struggling with tuition as their home economy falters – Bloomberg Businessweek
Theeland China drinkt steeds meer (hippe) koffie, maar veel barista’s gaan kopje onder – de Volkskrant
China binnenland
In song and dance, Uyghurs forced to celebrate Lunar New Year – RFA
Hong Kong
China and Hong Kong sign arrangement on reciprocal recognition of civil and commercial cases – Reuters
Expats: Nicole Kidman show about Hong Kong not shown in city – BBC News: ‘This is not the first controversy surrounding the show.’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan protests China’s unilateral adjustment of flight routes – Focus Taiwan
China constantly has four warships near Taiwan since August 2022, Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun reports –Taipei Times: ‘One of the four vessels is deployed around Yonaguni Island in Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture, the westernmost tip of Japan; one between Yonaguni Island and the Philippines; and one each in waters southwest and north of Taiwan, it said.’
DPP’s persistent stance on confrontation places Taiwan in precarious situation – Xinhua
The logistics of war: How Washington is preparing US forces for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan – Reuters
Would a Trump presidency change China’s calculations on Taiwan? Republican candidate’s indifference on island is among ‘worst kept secrets in Washington’ – Nikkei Asia
Taiwan’s Coast Guard confirms completion of South China Sea islet Itu Aba/Taiping wharf upgrades – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan lawmakers of ruling DPP urge outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 to visit contested island – RFA
Taiwan military simulates China turning drills into an attack – Reuters
Taiwan’s first lunar probe poised for launch as part of Japanese mission late this year – Focus Taiwan 🇯🇵
Eswatini foreign minister to visit Taiwan – Focus Taiwan 🇸🇿
Taiwan politiek
Han Kuo-yu 韓國瑜 (KMT) and You Si-kun 游錫堃 (DPP) visit TPP ahead of Legislative Yuan speaker vote – Taipei Times: ‘The TPP caucus has set conditions for which side would receive its eight votes, by outlining a list of reforms for the new legislature.’
Editorial: Crucial vote for legislative speaker – The Liberty Times via Taipei Times: ‘As Taiwan’s international space is tightly squeezed by China, the executive branch of the government finds it difficult to interact with the governments of other countries. The legislature, which represents a democracy and a diversity of opinions, has less of an official nature, making it easier for it and its members to make friends with other countries. To put it simply, parliamentary diplomacy is an important way for Taiwan to develop its foreign relations, so whoever leads the Legislative Yuan should be highly competent in this respect.’
Ko Wen-je 柯文哲’s TPP shrugs off cult allegations – New Bloom: ‘The self-labeling of TPP supporters as “Little Grass” reflects how the TPP has branded itself as the party of regular, everyday people. Its politicians are cast as different than slick and polished members of the political establishment, with Ko’s frequent gaffes–even forays into misogyny and homophobia–serving to illustrate this fact.’
Pro-Taiwan independence party Taiwan Statebuilding Party (TSP) downsizes after election battering – Taiwan News
Taiwan binnenland en economie
US business group in Taiwan sees falling but still high geopolitical concerns – Reuters