De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 30 oktober: Europese autoheffingen gaan in
De Europese Commissie kondigde gisteren aan dat de invoerheffingen op elektrische auto’s uit China definitief worden. Omdat de publicatie in het Unie-equivalent van de Staatscourant al in de avond geregeld was, gelden de heffingen vanaf vandaag. Dit betekent dat de onderhandelingen met China over prijsafspraken niet goed genoeg gaan. De Commissie stelt wel dat de gesprekken doorgaan, maar we moeten ons ondertussen eerst bezig houden met de vervolgstappen.
Ten eerste is het interessant om te kijken hoe de relatie met China nu verder gaat. Naast de onderhandelingen over een andere oplossing, kunnen we ook uitkijken naar vergeldingsmaatregelen. Gaat Peking nog meer Europese industrieën raken? Komen er ook nog politieke/diplomatieke maatregelen uit China? De Franse onderminister zou al vast van plan zijn hierover te klagen wanneer ze volgende week in Shanghai is.
Ten tweede is het op de langere termijn nu de vraag wat Europa gaat doen met deze bescherming voor de eigen industrie. Zoals Finbarr Bermingham opmerkte, spreken veel Duitse autofabrikanten zich publiekelijk uit tegen heffingen, maar klagen ondertussen wel dat concurrentie uit China bijdraagt aan afnemende winst. Volkswagen komt nu inderdaad met dramatisch nieuws over fabriekssluitingen en ontslagen.
Een interessant artikel in de Financial Times legt uit waarom de Chinese fabrikanten zo gevaarlijk zijn voor hun Europese collega’s. Dat heeft niet alleen te maken met enorme staatssteun en bevoordeling, maar ook met efficiëntie en technologische voorsprong. Het is nu de zaak daar oplossingen voor de zoeken, als Europa de kosten van de Chinese reactie de moeite waard wil laten zijn.
De veranderende geopolitieke tijden zijn ook te merken in het Nederlandse nieuws. De NCTV bericht over toenemende cyberaanvallen uit Rusland en China op het Westen. Tegelijkertijd is er een flinke delegatie van de Tweede Kamer in Taiwan – ik tel tien leden van zes partijen. Ook komt er weer een kleine Nederlandse bijdrage aan de United Nations Command in Zuid-Korea, in de vorm van drie officieren. In Brussel ruimen de kandidaat-commissarissen ondertussen ruimte in voor de Chinese uitdaging in hun schriftelijke bijdrage voor hun hoorzittingen.
Het internationale nieuws laat ook de symptomen zien van veel grote verschuivingen. Het Chinese ministerie van buitenlandse zaken spreek haar steun uit voor de vervalste verkiezingsuitslag in Georgië. Chinese hacks en desinformatie duiken op in de Verenigde Staten en Noord-Koreaanse troepen in Koersk. Een Zuid-Koreaan in de halfgeleiderindustrie blijkt vijf maanden geleden gearresteerd te zijn voor spionage – men ziet parallellen met de Koreaanse arrestatie van een Chinese burger voor spionage bij een chipfabrikant. Wraak? In Vietnam lijkt voor het eerst de bemanning van een verdwenen vissersboot door China gearresteerd en naar Hainan gebracht te zijn. Ook een beetje hoop: langs de betwiste grens tussen China en India zijn beide kanten bezig met terugtrekkingen na een recent akkoord.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
NCTV: Nederland [Westen] steeds vaker doelwit van cyberaanvallen uit Rusland en China – RTL Nieuws: „Het gebeurt vaker én op verschillende manieren” 🇳🇱
Cybersecuritybeeld 2024: turbulente tijden, onvoorziene effecten – NCTV: „Voor China geldt dat het tempo van cyberoperaties op westerse doelwitten hoog ligt en dat Chinese inlichtingendiensten de activiteiten om westerse doelwitten aan te vallen steeds verder opschroeven” 🇳🇱
‘Dep. Minister Wu welcomed @aukjedevries & her delegation from #Netherlands🇳🇱 over lunch & thanked @2eKamertweets for its motion rejecting #PRC's distortion of #UNGA Res. 2758. #Taiwan🇹🇼 looks forward to strengthening ties & cooperation in chips & AI based on our shared values!’ – 外交部 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ROC (Taiwan), Twitter 🇳🇱
Ik zie: Derk Boswijk (CDA), ex-staatssecretaris Eric van der Burg (VVD), Daniëlle Hirsch (GroenLinks-PvdA), Isa Kahraman (NSC), Roelien Kamminga (VVD), Tom van der Lee (GroenLinks-PvdA), Jan Paternotte (D66), Dennis Ram (PVV), ex-staatssecretaris Aukje de Vries (VVD) en Femke Zeedijk (NSC).
Beijing won’t like the sound of EU commissioner hearings – POLITICO Europe: ‘POLITICO takes a look at how critical [von der Leyen’s] incoming commissioners are on China, according to written statements they’ve submitted to the European Parliament’
‘Kallas telegraphed what could be perhaps the most significant shift when she stopped short of repeating in full the EU’s official line on China, calling the country a “partner, economic competitor and systemic rival” all in one.’ ‘Instead, Kallas focused on the element of rivalry and made no mention of partnership.’
‘The EU’s incoming climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, called for more robust policies to counter dependency on Beijing in his written answers.’ 🇪🇺
Bayerns Wirtschaftsminister Aiwanger ignoriert Warnungen vor China – Der Spiegel: „Nach einer viertägigen Delegationsreise in die Volksrepublik erklärte der Freie Wähler-Chef die chinesische Wirtschaft zum idealen Partner für die bayerische Industrie und den Mittelstand.“ 🇩🇪
French naval vessel passes through sensitive Taiwan Strait – Reuters: ‘The French defence ministry said the ship had been on its way to Japanese waters after a stop in the Philippines in order to start work on a United Nations mission.’ 🇫🇷
Finland’s visiting president warns Xi Jinping of ‘provocation’ by North Korea in Ukraine war – Reuters 🇫🇮
President Stubb meets President of China Xi Jinping – President of the Republic of Finland: ‘Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine led to Finland’s accession to NATO.’ 🇫🇮
Xi holds talks with Finnish president – Xinhua 🇫🇮
Chinese premier meets Finnish president – Xinhua 🇫🇮
Senior CCP official Lǐ Xī 李希 to visit Italy, Kenya, and South Africa – Xinhua: ‘spokesperson for the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, announced’ 🇮🇹
Uyghur rights body meets in Bosnia under tight security over threats – Reuters 🇧🇦
Slovak PM Fico to visit China as he seeks ties beyond western partners – Reuters: ‘Fico will also visit a plant operated by Gotion while in China.’ 🇸🇰
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian’s Regular Press Conference on October 29, 2024 – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China: ‘We noted that the election in Georgia has been held smoothly. China as always respects the choice of the Georgian people and sincerely hopes for stability and prosperity in Georgia. China stands ready to work with Georgia to continuously move forward bilateral relations.’ 🇬🇪
Rusland 🇷🇺
Russia and China block every proposal at Antarctic marine life conservation conference in Australia’s Hobart – ABC News: ‘German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir said Russia and China continued to resist measures to protect Antarctic marine life.’ 🇷🇺
Handel 🚗🇪🇺
EU to go ahead with tariffs on Chinese EVs after failure in talks – SCMP: ‘Duties will be collected from midnight on the day after. [d.w.z vandaag]’ 🇪🇺
EU-China staring match on EV duties will continue — even after they take effect – POLITICO Europe
EU imposes duties on unfairly subsidised electric vehicles from China while discussions on price undertakings continue – European Commission: ‘In parallel, the EU and China continue to work towards finding alternative, WTO-compatible solutions’ 🇪🇺
French minister to confront China over ‘unacceptable’ retaliatory tariffs in Shanghai – POLITICO Europe: ‘“The political nature of these investigations is clear,” said the diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in line with standard French government practice.’ 🇫🇷
’CCCEU’s Brief Comment on EU’s Hefty Tariffs on Chinese EVs Starting Oct. 30⬇️⬇️’ –China Chamber of Commerce to the EU (CCCEU) 欧盟中国商会, Twitter
China’s commerce ministry again warns EU against separate talks with EV makers – Reuters
China eager to resolve EU’s ‘divide and conquer’ tactics during EV talks, Chinese analysts say – SCMP
Why Europe’s car crisis is mostly made in China – FT: ‘Chinese manufacturers such as BYD, Nio, MG-owner SAIC, Great Wall and Chery are building more advanced electric cars with costs 30 per cent lower than those of European carmakers’
‘Electric cars are still expensive to produce in Europe, mostly because of the high cost of batteries, making them expensive to buy.’
‘Europe’s carmakers can no longer export their way out of trouble either. Last year, China replaced Japan as the world’s largest exporter of new cars’
‘The rise of homegrown brands has sharply reduced the sales of European, US and Japanese carmakers in China’
‘China’s leadership in electric propulsion is not just a matter of cost. Another major gap that is emerging is in technology.’ 🇪🇺
‘“‘The European industry needs to get the Chinese to localise in Europe and it needs to collaborate with them, particularly around battery technology, in order to catch up,’ he adds.” That’s a pretty distorted reading of what Japan, South Korea and China did to “catch up”. In fact they intervened to undervalue their currencies, they lowered interest rates while directing credit mainly to infrastructure and the manufacturing sectors, they kept wages from growing in line with productivity, and they often imposed restrictions on imports.’ – Michael Pettis, Twitter
Ondernemingsraad Volkswagen: directie sluit drie fabrieken en wil ‘tienduizenden’ medewerkers ontslaan – de Volkskrant 🇩🇪
Mercedes-Benz and Porsche look for cost cuts after China slump hits profits – FT 🇩🇪
‘This week a string of German carmakers issued profit warnings citing "competition from China" Amazing to see, then, buried on P206 of EU tariff regulation German Association of Automotive Industry argue that "market shares of Chinese cos were too small to cause threat of injury"’ – Finbarr Bermingham, Twitter 🇩🇪
„Ab 2026 greift schrittweise unsere Strategie“: VW-China-Chef will mit neuen Modellen Trendwende schaffen – Handelsblatt: „Um aus der Krise zu navigieren, setzt Brandstätter auf Kooperationen mit lokalen Herstellern wie dem Elektroautobauer Xpeng.“ 🇩🇪
Cognac-streek voelt de pijn van Europa’s strijd tegen elektrische auto’s uit China –FD 🇫🇷
European car safety agency snubs BYD 比亚迪’s Atto 3 driver assistance system – Reuters 🇪🇺
China’s BYD 比亚迪 is hiring the former UK chief of Stellantis, sources say, as the EV maker builds a team of European executives to lead its expansion in the region – Bloomberg 🇪🇺
Blaast China straks ook de Europese windmolenindustrie omver? – de Volkskrant: „De omslag van wereldleider naar subtopper heeft zich in verrassend korte tijd voltrokken, blijkt uit de ranglijst van grootste fabrikanten van windturbines.” 🇪🇺
Tech War 💽💥
US finalises rules to curb AI investments in China and impose other restrictions – Reuters: ‘covering three key sectors: semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies and certain AI systems.’ 🇺🇸
Fab Whack-A-Mole: Chinese companies are evading US sanctions –
TSMC 台積電 chips ended up in devices made by China’s Huawei 华为 despite US controls – The New York Times: ‘according to two Taiwanese government officials who were not authorized to speak publicly.’
TSMC 台積電 cuts off at least two chip clients over potential Huawei 华为 links – Nikkei Asia
Intel to expand Chinese chip-packaging and -testing plant after call for security audit – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
ASMI ups guidance as AI and Chinese demand remain strong – Reuters 🇳🇱
Singapore’s quiet rise in the global ‘deep tech’ race – Nikkei Asia 🇸🇬
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Nederland gaat militair bijdragen aan UNC-missie Zuid-Korea – Ministerie van Defensie 🇳🇱
China heeft grote belangen in het Midden-Oosten, maar laat de VS de kastanjes uit het vuur halen – Trouw
China shifts supply-chain focus to ‘least-developed countries’ for November expo – SCMP
EIB: „China gibt schnell Geld, die große Rechnung kommt meist hinterher“ – Handelsblatt: „Die Vizepräsidentin der Europäischen Investitionsbank (EIB), Nicola Beer, warnt Schwellenländer in Asien vor chinesischen Darlehen für Infrastrukturprojekte in der Region.“ 🇪🇺
Navo-baas Rutte waarschuwt voor escalatie van oorlog in Oekraïne nu Noord-Koreanen meedoen – de Volkskrant 🇰🇵🇷🇺🇺🇦
North Korean troops are now in Kursk to help Russia, NATO confirms – POLITICO Europe: ‘soon after a meeting with a senior official from South Korea’s intelligence service.’ 🇰🇵🇷🇺
Xi wants NATO to keep out of Asia. Kim Jong Un isn’t helping – POLITICO China Watcher
Indonesia and Russia to hold first joint naval drills – AFP 🇮🇩🇷🇺
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Exclusive: China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 pressed Biden to alter language on Taiwan – Reuters: ‘China wanted the U.S. to say “we oppose Taiwan independence,” rather than the current version, which is that the United States “does not support” independence for Taiwan’
‘Xi’s aides have repeatedly followed up and made the requests in the months since’ 🇺🇸
Tijdens de regering van Chen Shui-bian in Taiwan (2000–8) kreeg Peking verschillende Europese landen wel zo ver.
Chinese hackers said to have collected audio of American calls – The Washington Post: ‘Those whose calls have been intercepted include an unnamed Trump campaign adviser, said one of the people.’
‘Targeting candidates as well as leaders for espionage is standard practice by world powers, and U.S. officials said they do not consider the latest attempts to be election interference.’ 🇺🇸
Trump family members and Biden aides among China hack targets – The New York Times: ‘as well as diplomatic, government and policy experts who are largely unknown to the general public but would hold significant interest to Chinese officials’ 🇺🇸
Aanvulling op de eerdere berichtgeving over de Chinese inbraak bij Verizon.
Russian, Chinese, and Cuban accounts are amplifying hurricane misinformation, US official says – Reuters: ‘Certain strands of that misinformation were repeated by some Republicans’ 🇺🇸
Many Republicans take a tough line on China despite their own business ties to Beijing – The Guardian: ‘It has also been reported that McCormick oversaw investment in a Chinese fentanyl producer’ 🇺🇸
China confirms detention of South Korean national on suspected espionage charges – Yonhap News: ‘marking the first case where a South Korean national has been arrested in China since the revised law took effect last year.’
‘the individual was working at a chipmaker in China.’ 🇰🇷
China arrests South Korean chip engineer on espionage charges – FT: ‘According to South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper, Chinese investigators “isolated and interrogated” the South Korean engineer, identified as “Mr A”, at a hotel for more than five months.’
‘Analysts noted that case mirrored South Korean prosecutors’ indictment in January of a Korean engineer, known as “Mr Kim”, on suspicion of leaking Samsung’s memory technologies to CXMT.’ 🇰🇷
Vergelding?
China-South Korea ties: empty ambassador chair highlights complications in relationship – SCMP 🇰🇷
India and China nearly done removing troops, guard posts from friction points of disputed border – The Straits Times: ‘Sources told ST the two countries also agreed to keep lines of communication open at different levels of the army to “take care of day-to-day activities” and prevent any untoward incident.’ 🇮🇳
Remarks by Ambassador Fù Cōng 傅聪 at the UN Security Council Briefing on the Situation in the Middle East, Including the Palestinian Question – Permanent Mission of the People's Republic of China to the UN: ‘China condemns acts that violate Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and opposes acts of destruction that threaten regional peace and security.’
‘We call on the country with significant influence on Israel to put saving lives and preventing war in the first place, abandon any other political calculations’ 🇮🇱🇮🇷🇵🇸🇺🇸
Bullied by China at sea, with the broken bones to prove it – The New York Times: ‘the violence, described in interviews, insurance claims and letters to the Vietnamese government, fit a pattern’ ‘beatings and military operations’
‘In June, a fishing boat and its crew from Mr. Bien’s village, Chau Thuan Bien, about 80 miles south of Danang, disappeared after reporting by radio an encounter with the Chinese authorities.’ ‘one called to say they were being held on China’s Hainan Island.’ 🇻🇳
Toen een tijdje terug de Chinese kustwacht nieuwe richtlijnen kreeg die spraken over het vastzetten van buitenlanders in Chinese ‘jurisdictie’, waren er al mensen die zich afvroegen of Peking vissers zou gaan arresteren in de Zuid-Chinese Zee. Dit is het eerste bericht dat ik heb gelezen, dat suggereert dat China inderdaad een aantal Vietnamese vissers naar China heeft ontvoert.
Chinese regulator takes down fake news about its military, closes social media accounts – SCMP: ‘use fake information to hype the country’s military strength, including false reports of “cyberwarfare” in the South China Sea.’
China calls for closer Asean cooperation to lower biosecurity and bioweapons risks – SCMP: ‘Beijing made the call during the first regional workshop with 11 Southeast Asian countries last week in the science and technology hub of Shenzhen.’
Brazil backs away from joining China’s Belt and Road but keeps funding door ajar – SCMP: ‘instead seeking alternative ways to collaborate with Chinese investors, a top government adviser said on Monday.’ 🇧🇷
China sets to select and train astronauts from partner nations, spokesperson says – Xinhua
China’s state security ministry warns of deep-sea spying devices, underwater ‘lighthouses’ that guide foreign submarines – Reuters: ‘The ministry said it had uncovered devices that had been hidden on the ocean floor and were sending back information that could “pre-set the field for battle,” in an article on its official WeChat account’
China sharpens edge in global trade with zero-tariff deal for ‘least developed countries’ – SCMP
China economie
Exclusive: Eyeing US election, China considers over CN¥10 trillion [€1.3trn] in extra debt over next few years – Reuters: ‘Beijing may announce a stronger fiscal package if Trump wins a second presidency’
China’s property market shows signs of recovery as deals surge in top cities – SCMP: ‘Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen are on the way to recording multi-month highs in property transactions’
Chinese cities ease residency requirements as ‘war for people’ heats up – SCMP: ‘amid stubbornly low fertility rates and an ongoing property market crisis.’
China’s factory activity likely contracted in October for a sixth month, according to Reuters poll – Reuters: ‘but by the tiniest of margins, backing officials’ optimism’
China’s private tutoring firms emerge from the shadows after crackdown – Reuters: ‘China is quietly easing regulatory pressure on private tutoring operators as it looks to revive a flagging economy’
Chinese commodities producers centred on the old economy are still bearing the brunt of the nation’s economic slowdown, with steelmakers and crude oil processors in particular continuing to rack up losses – Bloomberg
Chinese provinces that account for about a third of the economy are enduring a worse year than the nation as a whole, succumbing to a slowdown that likely swayed the government in moving ahead with a range of stimulus measures last month – Bloomberg
Some companies change tack in China with no recovery in sight – Reuters: ‘starting to cut prices and costs and scale back activity in China’
Philips verkoopt minder scheerapparaten en elektrische tandenborstels in China – NU.nl 🇳🇱
China loses third of dollar billionaires as economy falters – FT
Local government has become a chokehold for Chinese business – Angela Zhang for FT: ‘In an authoritarian regime, the helping and grabbing hands are often two sides of the same coin.’
PetroChina 中国石油 to downsize in northern China, shut its Dalian refinery in 2025, sources say – SCMP
China’s regulator hits CICC 中金公司 with US$1.1 million in penalties over chip company’s IPO – SCMP
China binnenland
Xinhua Headlines: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 stresses advancing reform at study session for senior officials – Xinhua: ‘themed on implementing the guiding principles of the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 stresses building China into cultural powerhouse by 2035 – Xinhua: ‘Xi made the remarks while presiding over a group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 chairs CCP leadership meeting to review disciplinary inspection report – Xinhua
Chinese government workers call up women to urge pregnancy in latest birth rate push – SCMP: ‘Chinese grass roots government workers, who implemented decades of birth control policy, are now calling up women in their neighbourhood to urge them to get pregnant amid China’s demographic crisis.’
China unveils new policy measures to boost birth support – Xinhua
Beijing stabbing wounds five in rare knife assault, Chinese police say – Reuters
China to send youngest crew, including nuclear rocket scientist, to space station – SCMP
Hong Kong
No time limit for prosecuting remaining 7,000 arrested over 2019 protests, Hong Kong officials say – HKFP: ‘Less than 30 per cent of those arrested during the 2019 protests have been charged, according to figures as of the end of March.’
Hong Kong-Russia ties growing despite ‘illegal’ Western sanctions, Russian envoy says – SCMP 🇷🇺
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan issues warnings to Chinese coast guard vessels around Kinmen – Taipei Times: ‘The four China Coast Guard ships were detected approaching restricted waters south of Kinmen’ 🇨🇳
Senior US diplomat, AIT Director Ingrid Larson, arrives in Taiwan as officials downplay Trump comments – Reuters 🇺🇸
US and Taiwan to begin talks on double taxation deal, says Treasury Department – Reuters: ‘Washington and Taipei do not have formal diplomatic relations, so the lack of a tax agreement means Taiwanese businesses and individuals are taxed on their income by both’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan moves to buy 1,000 AeroVironment and Anduril attack drones – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
South Africa to discuss ties in wake of office relocation order, Taiwanese foreign ministry says – Focus Taiwan: ‘South Africa said it was willing to engage in talks on “bilateral relations going forward” with Taiwan via existing channels.’ 🇿🇦
Taiwan binnenland en economie
KMT decries constitutional court ruling its legislature reforms mostly unconstitutional – Taipei Times: ‘Fu said the ruling “officially drove the democratic ROC of the people, by the people and for the people back to the Qing Dynasty.”’
Rescinding provisions of the Civil Defence Act could cripple national defence, interior minister says – Taipei Times: ‘administration has set a goal of training 400,000 people as part of a civilian defense force to enhance whole-of-society defense resilience.’
‘However, opposition parties have questioned whether those people would be conscripted into a “militia.”’
Former and current agriculture chiefs questioned over egg import case – Focus Taiwan: ‘the two Chens were named as possible suspects for violating the Anti-Corruption Act’
Detention extended for city councillor Ying Hsiao-wei 應曉薇 (KMT) – Focus Taiwan