De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 28 augustus: Japan en Filipijnen, belastinginkomsten
De Chinese strijdkrachten creëren spanning in zowel het noorden als het zuiden. In het zuiden, in de Filipijnse EEZ, blijft het heet bij Sabina Shoal – een tweede plek van wrijving nu de rust weer enigszins terug lijkt gekeerd bij het gestrande Filipijnse schip BRP Sierra Madre op de Second Thomas Shoal.
In het noorden heeft de Chinese luchtmacht voor het eerst erkend Japans luchtruim geschonden. Eerdere schendingen vonden plaats bij de door China en Taiwan geclaimde Senkaku/Diaoyutai-eilanden. Nu vloog een Chinees surveiljancevliegtuig kort in het territoriale luchtruim van de onbewoonde Danjo-eilanden, 160 km van Nagasaki. Japan is erg boos – de Chinese reactie lijkt te suggereren dat het niet per se opzet was. Ook is er hier niet een duidelijk belang.
Maar je weet maar nooit. Het is in ieder geval duidelijk dat er enige samenhang zit achter het opvoeren van de druk bij de door China geclaimde delen van de Filipijnen, Japan, India en bij Taiwan. Dat maakt je beducht voor speldenprikken die moeten uittesten hoe ver China kan gaan. Alleen al de kans op misverstanden is een groot gevaar van Pekings campagne om de Verenigde Staten en bondgenoten af te schrikken door de risico’s op te voeren.
Ondertussen wil ik ook nog even de aandacht vestigen op het kopje ‘China economie’ vandaag. Er zijn een aantal interessante berichten over de staat van de Chinese overheidsfinanciën. Het Chinese nieuwsplatform Yicai Global schrijft over de teruglopende belastinginkomsten. (Elders is dit een reden voor economen om te twijfelen aan de officiële groeicijfers van de Chinese economie.)
Overheidsinkomsten uit andere bronnen zijn wel gegroeid. Nikkei Asia bericht over de verdubbeling van het bedrag dat lokale overheden verdienen met het innen van boetes. Het geld moet ergens vandaag komen – zeker nu de lokaal essentiële inkomstenstroom uit landverkoop opdroogt dankzij de vastgoedcrisis.
Daarom stelt de overheid ook strengere controles in op lokale grote projecten. Als je de – vaak onoverzichtelijke – schuldenberg van lokale overheden optelt bij de landelijke schuld dan kom je al uit op een overheidsschuldenratio t.o.v. het BBP van 142% in plaats van 21%. Dat mag niet van Brussel!
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Doodsbedreigingen en anonieme berichten: hoe Chinese studenten in Nederland worden geïntimideerd – EenVandaag 🇳🇱
Das undurchsichtige Lobbynetzwerk chinesischer Techkonzene – Lobby Control: „Huawei und Tiktok geben jeweils Verbindungen zu 3 Denkfabriken in Brüssel an: Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE), BRUEGEL, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).“
„Huawei verschweigt ferner seine Verbindung zum European Policy Centre (EPC), Tiktok gibt sie an.“ 🇪🇺
The first dialogue between China and EU on cross-border data transfer –
🇪🇺Top Chinese diplomat Wáng Yì 王毅 meets German Social Democratic Party delegation led by Rolf Mützenich – Xinhua 🇩🇪
Kommentar: Mützenichs (SPD) chinesische Gesangsstunde – Nikolas Busse in FAZ: „Wer Russland vor amerikanischen Raketen schützen will, dem öffnen sich bei Putins wichtigstem Verbündeten die Türen.“ 🇩🇪
China’s special envoy Lǐ Huī 李辉 calls US sanctions over Ukraine war ‘illegal and unilateral’ – Reuters 🇷🇺🇺🇸
China recognises Catholic bishop of Tianjin, Vatican says – Reuters: ‘had previously been placed under house arrest for refusing to join China’s state-backed church structure.’ 🇻🇦
Handel 🚗⚡️
European farmers caught in crossfire of EU-China trade war as Beijing targets dairy – SCMP: ‘Farmers and car makers are among the bloc’s most powerful and active lobby groups, and a move to curtail their exports is a sure-fire way to get them mobilised.’
‘Inside the European Commission, each move by China is seen to push particular pressure points in an effort to influence a crunch vote of EU members in October that will determine whether the EV tariffs are adopted for five years.’
‘At this stage, it appears unlikely that Beijing will convince enough capitals to reject the duties.’ 🇪🇺
‘Ireland exported nearly $50M in affected products to China last year. ICMSA’s Drennan urges the Irish govt to vote against EV duties. As Ag Minister McConalogue heads to China, fears grow over a potential trade war impacting farmers. #TradeWar #Agriculture’ – China Chamber of Commerce to the EU (CCCEU) 欧盟中国商会, Twitter 🇪🇺
Ook XPeng 小鹏 wil autoproductie in Europa opstarten – FD 🇪🇺
XPeng 小鹏 is looking for a manufacturing site in Europe, making it the latest Chinese EV maker seeking to mitigate the impact of import tariffs – Bloomberg: ‘Xpeng also plans to set up a large-scale data center in Europe as efficient software collection becomes paramount for cars’ intelligent driving features.’ 🇪🇺
German firms ignore calls to shrink China investments – DW: ‘“The data is very much driven by selected industries, like automotive and chemicals,” Doris Fischer, a professor for China business and economics at the University of Würzburg, Germany, told DW.’ 🇩🇪
China gokte goed op elektrisch rijden – en het Westen verzet zich daar tegen – NRC
China’s EV makers must pursue emerging markets amid dire profit prospects, Moody’s says – SCMP: ‘The earnings outlook for Chinese EV makers remains dire’
Trade implications of China’s subsidies – Lorenzo Rotunno and Michele Ruta, IMF Working Papers: ‘The results indicate that the subsidies promoted Chinese exports and limited imports. These effects have been magnified by supply-chain linkages: subsidies given to upstream industries expand significantly the exports of downstream industries.’
‘It's reported that @AFEP_EcoPo, @Der_BDI, etc. are concerned about @EU_Commission's plan to limit #European outbound high-tech investment, especially in #China. Interfering in business decision-making distorts international capital market and threatens companies' competitiveness.’ – 王鲁彤 Wang Lutong, Twitter 🇪🇺
Bedrijven en hun lobbygroepen zijn expliciet doelwit van Chinees verenigd front-werk én materiaal hiervoor bij werk gericht op andere partijen.
Het geheim van elke goedkope e-auto: een LFP-batterij – De Tijd: „Terwijl de Chinese productie van LFP-batterijen ondertussen boven de vraag uitkomt, is het nog wachten op de opening van de eerste Europese LFP-fabriek.” 🇪🇺
Canada komt met importheffing op Chinese elektrische auto’s van 100 procent – NOS 🇨🇦
Taiwan’s China Motor 中華汽車 to delay new cars from China’s SAIC 上汽 and MG Motor – Taipei Times: ‘in order to meet the government’s new localization content rules.’ 🇹🇼
Tech War 💽💥
China’s export curbs on semiconductor materials stoke chip output fears – FT: ‘Beijing’s curbs on shipments of germanium and gallium, which are used for semiconductor applications and military and communications equipment components, have led to an almost twofold increase in the minerals’ prices in Europe over the past year.’ 🇪🇺
Big Tech in China doubles AI spending despite US restrictions – FT: ‘The spurt is in part being driven by investments in Chinese AI start-ups structured to bring in customers.’
China’s low-altitude economy spreads its wings as struggling locales look skyward – SCMP
China’s low-altitude economy lacks growth roadmap, says industry group – Reuters
SCMP zit al tijden de ‘low-altitude economy’ te pushen, een prioriteit van enkele Chinese overheden.
Opinion: What Shein 希音’s supply chain says about the future of Chinese manufacturing – Eleanor Olcott for FT: ‘its low prices are in spite of, not because of labour costs, which have been rising in China’
‘But the concept of an automated factory feels like a pipe dream in Panyu. In the eight factories I saw, the most sophisticated technology was a creaky electronic clothesline. Investing in the technological upgrades is expensive and beyond the capacity of factories working on razor-thin margins.’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
China’s Y-20 transport plane heads to Egypt on Middle East military influence mission – SCMP 🇪🇬
Kortgeleden oefende de Chinese marine ook al met Egypte in de Middellandse Zee.
Faced with a coalescing partnership between four autocracies—Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—the US and its allies are weighing whether to confront them all at once – WSJ: ‘One potential approach mulled within Trump’s orbit would be to attempt the “reverse Kissinger,”’ 🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺🇮🇷🇰🇵
Opinie: We kunnen de Japanse premier Kishida nog wel eens gaan missen – Casper Wits in de Volkskrant 🇯🇵
IBM to shut China R&D division, impacting 1,000 jobs – Yicai Global 🇺🇸
Reportage Mongolië: „Als de wereld verandert, voelen wij dat meteen” – De Standaard 🇲🇳
Overige
China defensie
Japan says Chinese military violated uncontested territorial airspace for first time – The Japan Times: ‘the Chinese military’s Y-9 intelligence-gathering planes had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands [160 km] off Nagasaki’ 🇯🇵
Japan strongly condemns airspace violation by Chinese military aircraft; plane flew off Danjo Islands 男女群島 in Nagasaki Prefecture – The Yomiuri Shimbun: ‘He said the government would refrain from giving definite answer regarding the intent and purpose of the violation.’ 🇯🇵
China says it has ‘no intention’ of breaching any nation’s airspace after Japan claim – SCMP 🇯🇵
Taiwan’s foreign ministry condemns China for disrupting regional peace – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼🇯🇵
Geen Nederlandstalige bronnen in de nieuwsbrief, want de twee berichten die ik zag stonden te vol met feitelijke onjuistheden.
China Coast Guard blocks Philippines vessels en route to Escoda/Sabina Shoal – GMA News: ‘Over the weekend, CCG vessels rammed and used a water cannon on the BRP Datu Sanday of the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) near the shoal.’
‘The PCG believes the reason for China’s aggressive moves in Escoda Shoal is due to the presence there of PCG vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua.’ 🇵🇭
South China Sea: US condemns ‘aggressive’ Chinese actions, ‘stands with’ the Philippines – SCMP 🇺🇸🇵🇭
Niet alleen de VS veroordeelde de Chinese acties.
Xinhua Commentary: Only right choice for Philippines is to immediately withdraw its vessel from China’s Xianbin Jiao – Xinhua 🇵🇭
Taiwan’s foreign ministry condemns China’s attempt at hegemonic expansionism – Taipei Times 🇹🇼🇵🇭
US could escort Philippine resupply missions in South China Sea, admiral Paparo says – Reuters: ‘responding to a query’ 🇺🇸🇵🇭
Exclusive: China spent US$15.3 billion on Western Pacific exercises in 2023 – Reuters: ‘7% of its [officially reported] defence budget’ ‘according to a previously unpublished Taiwanese estimate’
China’s military to conduct armed patrols and live-fire exercises near Myanmar border – Reuters: ‘The patrols will focus on areas around Ruili, Zhenkang and other frontline sections in China, the military said in a statement.’ 🇲🇲
China’s PLA starts live-fire drills in areas bordering Myanmar – Xinhua 🇲🇲
China buitenland
Top US and China officials to meet on military, Taiwan, and fentanyl – Reuters: ‘Sullivan, China's top diplomat Wang Yi and others meet for the talks from Tuesday to Thursday’ 🇺🇸
Wáng Yì 王毅 and Jake Sullivan hold new round of China-US strategic communication – Xinhua 🇺🇸
China’s ‘problematic laws’ remain in Xinjiang two years after damning report, UN human rights office says – SCMP: ‘it still faced “difficulties posed by limited access to information and the fear of reprisals against individuals who engage with the United Nations”.’ 🇺🇳
Chinese hackers exploited bug to compromise internet companies, cybersecurity firm says – Reuters
China strongly condemns attacks in Pakistan, says Chinese foreign ministry – Reuters 🇵🇰
Nigeria’s President Tinubu to visit China seeking economic cooperation – Reuters 🇳🇬
China economie
China’s fiscal revenue should pick up soon after slumping in first seven months, finance ministry official says – Yicai Global: ‘dipped 2.6 percent in the first seven months from a year ago to CNY13.5 trillion (USD1.9 trillion)’
‘Of the national general public budget revenue, the tax haul sank 5.4 percent to CNY11.1 trillion (USD1.5 trillion), while non-tax revenue, which refers to income from the paid use of state-owned resources, fines and other sources, surged 12 percent to CNY2.4 trillion, the ministry said.’
Cash-strapped Chinese cities bring in over US$50bn from fines – Nikkei Asia: ‘doubled their revenue from fines compared with a decade ago, an effort to make up for lost income from other sources’
China’s ‘hidden debt’ drive controls borrowing for municipal infrastructure projects – SCMP
Lokale overheden blijven het enorm moeilijk hebben. Dankzij de teruglopende landelijke inkomsten plaatsen sommigen echter ook vraagtekens bij de officiële economische groeicijfers.
China to keep up financial risk control campaign with draft rules for microlenders – SCMP
High-tech manufacturing spurs China’s July industrial profit growth – Reuters
China’s central bank and ministries pledge green finance support for dense economic zone – SCMP
China binnenland
China’s top legislature to convene standing committee session in September – Xinhua
China’s urban-rural gap is a threat to growth. Is the divide too wide to fix? – SCMP: ‘“Children attending rural schools have difficulty acquiring the academic skills needed for highly skilled jobs,” Rozelle said.’
Chinese probe into cooking oil scandal results in arrests, firms disqualified, and fines – SCMP
China mutes law professor Láo Dōngyàn 劳东燕 on social media after cybersecurity ID plan criticism – SCMP
Xinhua think tank sports report ‘The Road to Becoming a Sports Powerhouse — The Value and Inspiration of Xi Jinping’s Important Discourses on Sports’ released – Xinhua: ‘The report highlights the global impact of Xi’s ideas on sports, suggesting that China’s modernization and sports development model provides a reference for other countries and regions.’
China’s Xinjiang officials want to build ‘strategic barrier for geopolitical security’ – SCMP: ‘said Xinjiang should also improve “the legal and work routines for counterterrorism and maintaining stability”, along with public security and stability on the border.’
China to introduce revised textbooks, featuring stories of astronauts, scientists, border heroes – The Global Times
Hong Kong
Convicted activists in Hong Kong national security trial say ‘no remorse’ – AFP: ‘judges ruled the group would have created “a constitutional crisis” had they won the election’
Three linked to Hong Kong university students’ union arrested on suspicion of conspiring to defraud – HKFP
Taiwan corruptie
Donovan’s Deep Dives: TPP train wreck continues with multiple investigations – Courtney Donovan Smith for Taipei Times
Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) confirms using election subsidy to buy property – Taipei Times
Twelve years sought for ex-vice premier Cheng Wen-tsan 鄭文燦 (DPP) in bribery case – Focus Taiwan
KMT lawmaker Sra Kacaw 鄭天財 released on bail in corruption probe – Focus Taiwan
屏縣藍營議長周典論為郭台銘收購連署書 判刑4年 – 自由時報
Voorzitter (KMT) van de regionale raad in Pingtung veroordeeld tot 4 jaar.
Taiwan buitenland
China-Solomon Islands push to ban Taiwan from Pacific Islands Forum ‘regrettable’, foreign ministry says – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳🇸🇧
Taiwanese executives exiting China over security laws, source says – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Taiwan and Japan hold 6th edition of maritime talks in Taipei – Taipei Times 🇯🇵
Singaporean representative reaffirms ties with Taiwan at National Day reception – Taipei Times 🇸🇬
Lai currently ‘has no plans’ to travel overseas, Presidential Office says – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
Taiwan defensie
Taiwan’s NT$284bn [€8bn] plan for more submarines meets political resistance from Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) opposition – Nikkei Asia: ‘The risk of the defense budget being voted down casts a pall of uncertainty over President Lai Ching-te’s plans to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses against a major Chinese military buildup.’
Taiwanese military sending more gear to units amid complaint – Focus Taiwan: ‘following a complaint by a group of military officers that they lack the equipment and human resources needed to train one-year conscripts.’
Taiwan building five anti-ship missile bases along coast as China tensions grow – SCMP
Troops test-fire anti-amphibious landing missiles – Taipei Times
How China could blockade Taiwan – CSIS ChinaPower
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Taiwan’s Lai marks 100 days in office as China and opposition test mettle – Nikkei Asia
Court rules in favour of KMT in party headquarters lawsuit – Taipei Times: ‘a reversal of a decision by the same court in 2021, which stemmed from a lawsuit filed by the KMT in 2018 against the government’s Ill-gotten Party Assets Settlement Committee.’
‘In a separate ruling yesterday, the Taipei High Administrative Court ruled in favor of Broadcasting Corp of China (BCC), saying that the committee’s declaration of the company as a KMT affiliate was incorrect.’
Three Taiwanese affiliated with the China Unification Promotion Party (CUPP) charged over spy network – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
DPP legislators call out Taoyuan mayor Simon Chang 張善政 (KMT) over MRT names – Taipei Times: ‘after the city disregarded an online poll and gave four new Taoyuan MRT stations names that included “Jhongjheng” (中正) — a name adopted by Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石).’
Ker Chien-ming 柯建銘 (DPP) vows to sue journalists over debt claims – Taipei Times
Court says gender change lawful for transgender person – Taipei Times
International students able to work in hotels – Taipei Times