De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 2 oktober: Nationale Dag China
Het is relatief rustig op het gebied van China-nieuws, aangezien we in de Gouden Week zijn. 1 oktober is de Nationale Dag waarop men de stichting van de Volksrepubliek China in 1949 herdenkt. Naast veel rode koppen in de staatsmedia zijn er dan ook vrije dagen.
Er is een toespraak van Xi Jinping om te beluisteren en dan te vergelijken met voorgaande jaren. Wat mij opvalt, is dat we geen al te grote festiviteiten zien ook al gaat het om een 75e verjaardag. Niet alleen is dat een mooi rond getal, ook is de CCP nu langer aan de macht in de PRC dan de 74 jaar die de CPSU aan de macht was in de USSR. De val van de Sovjetunie is nogal een obsessie van de Chinese Communistische Partij onder Xi.
Het zou kunnen dat 75 een minder belangrijk getal is in China. Een cyclus van 60 jaar is natuurlijk een mooi ronder getal. Het kan ook te maken hebben met de toestand van de economie. De aangekondigde stimulans lijkt wel aan te slaan op de beurzen, maar het sentiment onder consumenten moet nog bewezen worden.
De propaganda rondom de dag legt daarom een beetje nadruk op alle toeristische bewegingen, die natuurlijk geld in het laatje brengen. Maar online zie ik vooral veel posters voorbijkomen die laten zien hoe veel vooruitgang de Volksrepubliek heeft geboekt.
Daarnaast valt ook de Taiwan-paragraaf op in het Xinhua-verslag van de toespraak van Xi Jinping. Vorig jaar stond die er niet in. Maar het taalgebruik daarin verrast mij niet heel erg, ondanks de Blut und Boden die er duidelijk uit spreekt. Alles is in lijn met de groeiende nadruk op ‘hereniging’ en het grotere belang dat de Partij hecht aan Taiwan zonder dat er nieuwe drastische stappen direct nabij lijken.
In Europa werken we nog wel door. Vrijdag 4 oktober moeten de lidstaten besluiten over de heffingen op elektrische auto’s uit China. Duitsland is en blijft tegen. Noah Barkin heeft in zijn maandelijkse nieuwsbrief een schokkend overzicht van hoever bondskanselier Scholz is gegaan in zijn agressieve campagne.
Een voldoende meerderheid om de heffingen te blokkeren lijkt onwaarschijnlijk. Dat maakt de manier waarop Berlijn zijn reputatie zo heeft beschadigd – in Brussel is ‘Duitsland’ om meerdere redenen momenteel geen positief woord – moeilijk te begrijpen, wat je verder ook van de inhoudelijke argumenten vindt.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Chinese woman arrested in Germany’s Leipzig on suspicion of espionage, prosecutor says – Reuters: ‘on suspicion of foreign agent activities and allegedly passing on information regarding arms deliveries’ 🇩🇪
Chinesin in Leipzig wegen Spionageverdacht festgenommen – FAZ: „Bei ihrer Tätigkeit am Flughafen Leipzig/Halle habe Yaqi X. einem anderen mutmaßlichen Agenten, Jian G., Informationen gegeben, teilte die Behörde am Dienstag in Karlsruhe mit. G. ist ein früherer Mitarbeiter des AfD-Politikers und EU-Abgeordneten Maximilian Krah, er wurde bereits im April unter Spionageverdacht festgenommen.“ 🇩🇪
Germany arrests woman for passing defence info to China via EU lawmaker’s aide – POLITICO Europe 🇩🇪
Festnahme wegen mutmaßlicher geheimdienstlicher Agententätigkeit – Der Generalbundesanwalt beim Bundesgerichtshof 🇩🇪
How the Chinese Communist Party’s United Front extends its influence to Hungarian Associations – Direkt36 🇭🇺
Taiwan-Czechia projects under foreign ministry going smoothly, diplomat says – Focus Taiwan: ‘in response to a question on the delay in a Taiwan-Czech Republic project being run by the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC)’ ‘The Czech Republic has recently completed a round of elections, and the governing administration is a coalition government, meaning that there were “different opinions” regarding cooperation with Taiwan, [NSTC’s] Wu said, without elaborating.’ 🇨🇿
Taiwanese legislature launches new Italy friendship caucus – Taipei Times 🇮🇹
UK and China in talks about resuming economy discussions, Sky reports – Reuters 🇬🇧
Rusland 🇷🇺
China’s support to Russia should have implications, new NATO chief Mark Rutte says – Reuters 🇷🇺
Rutte haalt als nieuwe Navo-baas uit naar China en maakt zich geen zorgen over Trump – de Volkskrant 🇷🇺
China and Russia team up on Arctic coastguard mission, with new shipping routes on horizon – SCMP: ‘The patrol took the ships close to the Arctic, according to footage posted online on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian’ 🇷🇺
Nationale Dag
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 forecasts ‘rough seas’ on 75th anniversary of People’s Republic of China – The Guardian: ‘The banquet where Xi spoke was one of few events marking the 75th anniversary. Tuesday was a surprisingly muted affair marked in Beijing only by a flag raising ceremony in Tiananmen Square.’
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 warns ‘Taiwan separatists’, stresses support for Hong Kong and Macau – SCMP: ‘Taiwan was “China’s sacred territory” and “the people on both sides of the (Taiwan) Strait are connected by blood”, Xi said’
ROC is a sovereign state not subordinate to PRC, Taiwan’s foreign ministry says – Taipei Times
Xi urges greater national achievements and contributions to humanity’s peace and development – Xinhua: ‘Xi emphasized that, to advance Chinese modernization, it is imperative to always uphold the core role of the Party in exercising overall leadership and coordinating the efforts of all sides’
庆祝中华人民共和国成立75周年招待会隆重举行 习近平发表重要讲话 – 新华社:“习近平指出,台湾是中国的神圣领土,两岸人民血脉相连、血浓于水。要坚持一个中国原则和‘九二共识’,深化两岸经济文化交流合作,促进两岸同胞心灵契合,坚决反对‘台独’分裂活动。实现祖国完全统一,是大势所趋、大义所在、民心所向,历史的车轮谁都无法阻挡。”
Deze Taiwan-paragraaf stond niet in het Xinhua-bericht over de toespraak van Xi ter gelegenheid van de 74e verjaardag van de Volksrepubliek vorig jaar.
Leaders of European countries send congratulations on PRC's 75th founding anniversary – Xinhua 🇪🇺
In deze volgorde, de presidenten van: Servië, Hongarije, Duitsland, Italië, Zwitserland.
China’s envoy in Washington Xiè Fēng 谢锋 warns US against ‘strategic miscalculation’, pledges investment opportunities – SCMP: ‘“The Chinese people should not be deprived of their rights to develop, and develop the economy and pursue a better life,” he said.’ 🇺🇸
Fear of a Soviet-style collapse keeps Xi Jinping up at night – The Economist: ‘Communists had been in power for 74 years in Moscow at the time of the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.’
Knife attack on eve of China’s National Day holiday leaves 3 dead in Shanghai – SCMP
Consider nation, MAC tells Taiwanese celebrities posting on Weibo for China’s National Day – Taipei Times
Handel 🚗🇪🇺
D-Day looms for China’s exporters as EU moves towards October 4 vote on EV tariffs – SCMP: ‘Martin Lukas, the commission’s director of trade defence, broke away from “almost daily” technical negotiations to brief European Parliament lawmakers during a hearing on Monday.’”
‘“In China, we see a spare capacity of 3 million BEVs per year which cannot be absorbed by the Chinese domestic market. Therefore, China needs to export it,” Lukas said, noting the volume was almost “twice the size” of the EU’s entire annual consumption of 1.6 battery-electric vehicles.’
‘Talks to resolve the dispute will continue even beyond the vote, but the duties would allow the bloc’s secretariat to negotiate from a position of leverage, insiders believe.’ 🇪🇺
EU says it could continue China EV talks even after tariffs – Reuters: ‘has sent its proposal for final tariffs on such vehicles to the EU’s 27 members advocating levels that it calculated in September, three sources familiar with the matter said. It has set the vote for Friday.’ 🇪🇺
Germany is skeptical about EU tariffs on imported electric vehicles made in China and is still hoping for a negotiated solution, says Chancellor Sholz’s chief economic adviser – Bloomberg 🇩🇪
Watching China in Europe—October 2024 – Noah Barkin: ‘That Brussels appears on the verge of winning this two-front battle [with Berlin and Beijing] tells us a thing or two about the EU’s readiness to wield its economic leverage with China, about the shifting balance of power within Europe on China policy, and about the role of the German auto industry in shaping policy in Berlin.’
The last time a German chancellor ignored the concerns of the country’s closest European allies, the European Commission, and the United States out of blind fealty to German industry, it ended with a strategic catastrophe: the Nord Stream pipelines. That has not stopped Scholz from repeating the mistakes of his predecessors Angela Merkel and Gerhard Schröder with a campaign to convince other European capitals to break with the Commission and vote against the duties. He has done this in three stages, according to people privy to the lobbying from his team in the chancellery.
In a first stage in June, he leaned heavily on von der Leyen to try to prevent the imposition of provisional duties on Chinese EVs. This included threats, which ultimately proved empty, to withdraw his support for her second term as Commission president, according to several people with whom I spoke. When this did not work, Scholz turned his focus to other member states, trying to convince them to turn on the Commission. This was complemented by calls from the CEOs of German carmakers to senior European government officials, including at least one conversation with a prime minister, to warn that a vote for the duties would put plants in their countries at risk. The government of Czechia, home to Volkswagen’s Skoda, came under acute pressure from German carmakers, I was told. In a third and final stage over the past weeks, Scholz has reverted to pressuring von der Leyen herself. One EU official described the chancellor as going “ballistic” in his attempt to kill the case.
Werkelijk schokkend hoe ver Scholz is gegaan in deze gedoemde campagne voor uitstel van executie voor Duitse autofabriekanten die China snel toch niet meer nodig heeft.
Chinese manufacturers sold the fewest electric cars in 18 months to customers across Europe, with registrations falling by nearly half in August from a year earlier – Bloomberg 🇪🇺
Stellantis warns on profit, citing global markets and Chinese competition – Reuters 🇪🇺
Tesla is expected to post its first quarterly sales increase this year after car buyers in China, the world’s largest electric vehicle market, seized on a sweetened government incentive – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
Het gaat niet goed met productie van Europese batterijen en dat is een probleem voor de klimaatdoelen – EenVandaag 🇪🇺
China and Asean aim to clinch free-trade deal upgrade led by EVs and e-commerce – SCMP: ‘The so-called version 3.0 upgrade to the deal would cover “megatrends of our time”, such as the digital economy and environmental protections, Hourn said.’
The US Commerce Department set preliminary duties on solar imports from Southeast Asia, after an initial finding the equipment is benefiting from illegal government aid – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
US lawmakers ask Mexican president-elect to address Chinese vehicle concerns – Reuters 🇺🇸🇲🇽
Tech War 💽🇺🇸
Huawei 华为’s AI chips take another step forward as Chinese firms look for Nvidia alternatives – SCMP
ByteDance 字节跳动 plans new AI model trained with Huawei 华为 chips, sources say – Reuters
China is 10 years behind Taiwan on leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council minister says – Taipei Times: ‘asked […] about a report published in August by the Chinese version of Nikkei Asia that said Taiwan’s lead over China in chip manufacturing was only three years.’
Apple may need to turn to China after Indian Tata plant fire, sources say – Reuters 🇮🇳
China Telecom 中国电信 say AI model with 1 trillion parameters trained with Chinese chips – SCMP
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Au Kenya, apprendre le mandarin pour trouver un emploi : « Google Translate ne fait pas tout ! » – Le Monde 🇰🇪
President Lai (DPP) congratulates Ishiba Shigeru 石破 茂 (LDP) on becoming Japan’s new prime minister – Taipei Times: ‘In August, Ishiba led a group of six cross-party Japanese lawmakers focused on security issues on a visit to Taiwan’ 🇯🇵
Indian foreign minister says does not share Ishiba vision for Asian NATO – Reuters 🇮🇳🇯🇵
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Zuid-Chinese Zee
Chinese military conducts combat readiness patrols in parts of South China Sea, state media reports – Reuters: ‘in an extension of rare military drills and exercises in the region over the weekend.’
Crew of Vietnamese fishing boat injured in an attack in the South China Sea, state media say – AP 🇻🇳
Chinese government vessels identified in brutal attack on Vietnamese fishermen in the South China Sea – Geoint.Asia 🇻🇳
The Philippine Coast Guard said it is keeping an eye on China’s next move at a disputed South China Sea shoal that has become a flashpoint – Bloomberg: ‘The Southeast Asian nation has been using Canadian vessel detection technology to monitor China’s presence at Sabina Shoal’ 🇵🇭
Cambodia says it would welcome US Navy at port expanded with China’s help – Reuters: ‘Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol told a think tank event in Washington that any country’s military could call at the port once the naval base is completed.’ 🇰🇭
overige
China and US commerce ministers to hold talks on economic and trade issues, Xinhua reports – Reuters 🇺🇸
What happens if China loses normal US trade relations? – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
Kazakhstan is in talks with China about increasing gas exports and is even considering building an additional pipeline to boost flows – Bloomberg 🇰🇿
Als deze er wel komt en de Power of Siberia 2 met Rusland niet, dan zal dat in Moskou als een signaal worden opgevat.
India’s army chief says resolving a border dispute with China will depend on negotiations and the issue still remains ‘sensitive’ – Bloomberg 🇮🇳
Singapore-China ties set to be re-energised, Chinese ambassador Cáo Zhōngmíng 曹忠明 says – The Straits Times 🇸🇬
Cao zat hiervoor in België.
China economie
China’s premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 affirms need for policy speed as stimulus package sets markets ablaze – SCMP: ‘Li’s comments serve as additional incentive for China’s vast state apparatus to mobilise and meet the annual gross domestic product growth target of “around 5 per cent”’
China to cut existing mortgage rates by the end of October – Reuters
Global investors call time on their exodus from China – Reuters: ‘investors reckoned the tide was turning after Beijing authorities promised to spend as necessary to hit the 5% growth target.’
China factory activity contracts for fifth straight month in September – Nikkei Asia
China economic slowdown sends chill through ‘golden week’ holidays – Nikkei Asia
Cost-conscious Chinese tourists look to affordable options for Golden Week holiday – Reuters
Chinezen weten Europa weer massaal te vinden tijdens vakantieperiode – NU.nl 🇪🇺
China’s first industrial leases are expiring. Will their holders renew? – SCMP: ‘In China, the maximum length for single leases of commercial and industrial land are 40 and 50 years respectively’
China manufacturing hub warns of offshoring and ‘hollowing out’ risks, eyes local investment – SCMP
China binnenland
中纪委驻中组部组长李刚被查 – 联合早报
Hong Kong
British judge Nicholas Phillips steps down from Hong Kong court – The Guardian
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan court overturns 2020 acquittal of former air force officer in China espionage case – Taipei Times: ‘The court handed Lou a 17-year prison sentence, which is considered a severe penalty, as most spying case convictions in the past decade usually only resulted in three to four-year prison sentences.’ 🇨🇳
China aims to internalise Taiwan Strait and wage lawfare, defence ministry report says – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Taiwan binnenland en economie
‘We are Chinese’: KMT lawmaker Weng Hsiao-ling 翁曉玲 challenges president on Taiwan’s nature – Nikkei Asia: ‘She said that “the peaceful unification of this country is of course our ultimate goal.”’ ‘“Is the mainland not a democratic country? They also think they are democratic. […]”’
Weng zit o.a. achter wetgeving die het Taiwanese grondwettelijk hof lam kan leggen op het moment dat er een zaak ligt tegen wetgeving van de KMT die de regering onrechtmatig zou verzwakken. Weng is ook tegen hogere defensie-uitgaven. Taiwan moet zich voorbereiden op verdediging tegen China terwijl sommige oppositiepolitici van de Chinese Nationalistische Partij (KMT) nog altijd Chinese nationalisten zijn.
Taiwan warns of storm surge from powerful Typhoon Krathon, mobilises troops – Reuters
Offices and schools across Taiwan to close on Wednesday due to typhoon – Focus Taiwan
Premier Cho (DPP) defends 12.5 per cent industrial electricity rate increase – Focus Taiwan
PMI decreases amid weakness overseas – Taipei Times