De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 2 augustus: overstromingen Peking, zuivering Volksbevrijdingsleger, Tech War
De grootste verhalen vandaag betreffen de zuivering van de top van de dienst van het Volksbevrijdingsleger die verantwoordelijk is voor de nucleaire wapens van China en de enorme overstromingen in Peking en Hebei. Verder wijs ik op het bezoek van Commissievoorzitter Von der Leyen aan de Filipijnen.
Halfgeleiders zijn ook weer in het nieuws. Gallium en germanium hebben exportvergunningen nodig in China. Ook schrijft men over het nut van de exportbeperkingen richting China. Twee stukken in de Tech War-sectie vandaag onderbouwen mijn argument dat we ons blind staren op de Verenigde Staten als het aankomt op ‘ontkoppeling’ en Pekings pogingen zelfvoorzienend te worden op het gebied van halfgeleiders.
In de Financial Times gaat het over de diepere fundamenten van de technologische ontkoppeling tussen Zuid-Korea en China, waarbij het geen zin heeft om simplistisch de schuld te geven aan Washington DC. Tegelijkertijd schrijft Gregory Allen voor CSIS een aantal belangrijke paragrafen waarin hij uitlegt dat Pekings pogingen om China te ontkoppelen van Westerse technologiebedrijven al begonnen voordat Trump zelfs maar aan de macht kwam.
Ondertussen laat een bericht in Bloomberg zien dat het wel moeilijk is om te beslissen waar je stop, als je eenmaal beperkende maatregelen aanneemt tegen China. Volgens dit artikel leven er zorgen onder Amerikaanse en Europese functionarissen dat China nu de markt voor minder geavanceerde halfgeleiders gaat domineren. Maar als Washington maar door blijft gaan met het uitbreiden van de technologie die onder beperkingen moet vallen…
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
The Chinese Embassy in the Netherlands held a reception to celebrate the 96th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army of China – Embassy of the People’s Republic of China to the Kingdom of the Netherlands: ‘Around 280 guests joined the reception, including […], officers and officials from Dutch government […]’ ‘The guests extended warm congratulations on the 96th anniversary of the founding of the PLA and spoke highly of the great contribution of Chinese military in maintaining world peace.’ 🇳🇱
EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen blasts Beijing in Manila speech – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
EU and Philippines agree to relaunch free trade talks – AFP 🇪🇺
China expands export controls on drones with military potential – SCMP 🇺🇦
China’s latest drone export curbs ‘may be signal to West it is neutral in Russia-Ukraine war’ – Alibaba’s SCMP 🇺🇦
Taiwan is Italy’s top Indo-Pacific partner, EU parliamentarian writes after visit – Taipei Times 🇮🇹
‘Meeting with the @EP_ForeignAff delegation, Chairman @ChingteLai expressed gratitude for the EU's support for peace & stability in the Taiwan Strait. We look forward to working with the EU to build more-secure global supply chains & advance prosperity and peace world-wide.’ – 民主進步黨 Democratic Progressive Party, Twitter
Zuiveringen Volksbevrijdingsleger
‘Absolute loyalty’: Xi turns anti-corruption targets on China’s military – FT: ‘Two foreign senior government officials briefed on related intelligence said the Rocket Force leaders were being probed for leaking military information.’
Er was kritiek op de bronvoering van een artikel in de SCMP afgelopen vrijdag, maar nu hebben we dus nog een krant die het verhaal bevestigt.
China names General Wáng Hòubīn 王厚斌 as new PLA Rocket Force chief after former commanders snared in corruption scandal – SCMP: ‘The Central Military Commission’s anti-corruption unit is currently investigating the force’s former commander Li Yuchao, as well as his current and former deputies’
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 installs new Rocket Force leadership amid major purge – The Straits Times: ‘Rumours had swirled in the past weeks that the unit’s chief, General Li Yuchao, was taken away by the authorities in late June for suspected espionage involving his son, who was studying in the United States.’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 presents order to promote military officers to rank of general – Xinhua
Nieuwe top komt uit andere diensten, wat wijst op een grote schoonmaak.
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 leans on old friends to enforce party discipline in China’s military – Nikkei Asia
Overstromingen Peking
Dodental door noodweer Peking loopt op naar twintig – NOS
Dodental door storm in Beijing loopt op, nieuwe tyfoon alweer op komst – de Volkskrant
At least 20 dead across Beijing and nearby Hebei as Tropical Storm Doksuri brings heaviest rain in 70 years – SCMP
Military helicopters deliver aid to Beijing flood victims in the wake of typhoon Doksuri – AFP
Beijing, northern China boost rescue efforts after worst storm in years – Reuters
Airport submerged as widespread flooding continues in China – video report – The Guardian
President Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 [Cài Yīngwén] offers sympathies to China [sic] after flooding deaths – Focus Taiwan
Tech War 💽💥
Chip supply chains at risk as China fires back at West – POLITICO Europe
China gallium and germanium export curbs kick in; wait for permits starts – Reuters
China’s metal export controls may first hit entities from countries that cracked down on China: analysts – The Global Times 🇳🇱
NB: Global Times en de ‘experts’ die het nationalistische tabloid vaak aanhaalt doen graag aan wensdenken. Dat deze nationalisten zulke acties zouden willen zien, betekent niet dat Peking ook per se het voor China zelf cruciale ASML gaat straffen of het binnen de EU nog belangrijke Nederland verder van zich gaat vervreemden. (Maar het kan natuurlijk wel.)
China investeert recordbedrag in buitenlandse grondstofwinning – de Volkskrant
China’s overseas investment in metals and mining set to hit record – FT
Tech cold war: South Korea pivots from China to US – FT: ‘Korea’s trade minister Ahn Duk-geun has said Beijing’s policy to “arbitrarily interfere with businesses” as well as its “dual circulation” import substitution policies were driving Korean companies to reduce their exposure to China.’
‘amity was shattered in 2016 after South Korea acquired the US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) anti-ballistic missile system to protect itself against North Korean missile attacks.’
Blocking China’s access to AI chips matters to US national security – Gregory C. Allen for CSIS:
China’s explicit policy goal—the one underlying its 2014 announcement of more than $100 billion in semiconductor industry subsidies—was to replace U.S. and allied chips and chipmaking technologies with Chinese alternatives. This was China’s plan not only before President Biden took office, but two years before former president Donald Trump was inaugurated.
This is the vital context through which to view the Biden administration’s October 7 export controls, which restricted U.S. exports of advanced AI chips and the advanced equipment used to make them. China’s leaders had already decided to do anything and everything to eliminate their dependence on U.S. technology. There was no realistic chance of persuading China to walk away from that policy.
China’s Luxshare’s wins with Apple make it Taiwan’s Hon Hai (Foxconn)’s biggest challenger – FT
Deepening Poland-Taiwan semiconductor cooperation on the horizon – DigiTimes Asia
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s article on achieving China’s self-reliance and strength in science, technology to be published – Xinhua
习近平:加强基础研究 实现高水平科技自立自强 来源 –《求是》2023/15
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
De anti-Franse staatsgreep in Niger is een nachtmerrie voor het Westen – Trouw: „Dat de Russen, en ook de Chinezen, racistisch zijn, is niet erg. “Ze zijn het namelijk openlijk”, zegt Deng. “Ze doen niet alsof ze het niet zijn, zoals de Europeanen.””
US seeks to deepen Tokyo-Seoul security links to boost Pacific deterrence – FT
Onhandige Chinese diplomatie en oprechte dreiging waaraan geen publieksdiplomatie iets kan doen zorgen dat Peking steeds meer coalities tegen zich vindt in de eigen buurt.
Chinese companies flock in record numbers to Turkish defence fair – Nikkei Asia
Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC boosts infrastructure investment, moves money from China to India and Vietnam – Nikkei Asia
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Verenigde Staten
US says formally invites new Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 to Washington – Reuters
Senior US and Chinese diplomats meet for ‘candid’ talks in bid to build trust ahead of possible Xi-Biden meeting – SCMP
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is planning to visit China in late August, part of the Biden administration’s effort to reduce tensions between the world’s two largest economies – Bloomberg
US House committee quizzes BlackRock and MSCI on China investments – FT: ‘The lawmakers said the firms were investing in Chinese companies that the US government has blacklisted due to PLA connections or their role enabling human rights abuses.’
US targets two China-based firms over forced labor practices – Reuters
China accuses US of kidnapping suspected drug traffickers from Fiji – Semafor
US dependence on China for lifesaving drugs grows – Nikkei Asia
Qin Gang
‘Not found’: China’s ex-foreign minister Qín Gāng 秦刚 is gone but wait for explanation goes on – Reuters
China’s foreign minister Qín Gāng 秦刚 deposed: guilt or power struggle? – Bonnie Girard for The Diplomat
Speculatie die het verdwijnen van Qin linkt aan de zuivering in het Volksbevrijdingsleger en de geruchten over spionage in die context is lastig te controleren, maar zou slecht nieuws zijn voor Qin, die dan zelfs met de ultieme straf rekening zou moeten houden.
Career diplomat and Russia expert Lè Yùchéng 乐玉成 retires after move to state media body – SCMP: ‘after he turned 60, the official retirement age for vice-ministerial roles’
China economie
China’s State Council issues measures to expand consumption in the automobile, real estate and services sectors – Reuters
Hoogleraar aan de Universiteit Peking Michael Pettis herhaalt zijn vaste klacht dat de maatregelen consumptie niet ‘stimuleren’, maar slechts ‘aanmoedigen’. Maar consumeren makkelijker maken is volgens hem zinloos, zolang de Chinese consument niet meer geld tot zijn beschikking heeft om uit te geven.
China’s biggest cities vow to introduce steps to boost property sector – Reuters
China is trying to make its gloomy consumers spend more – The New York Times: ‘China’s National Bureau of Statistics has responded to the weak data by halting the public release of any monthly readings of consumer confidence past March, discontinuing a series that it launched 33 years ago.’
Net als bij het dwingen van bedrijven om risico’s van het Chinese systeem uit de beursprospectus te halen, lijkt mij de verminderde transparantie investeringen en uitgaven juist de in de weg te zitten.
China’s factory and services sectors show weakness and need for stimulus – Reuters
The factories on the front line of China’s economic slowdown – FT
Beijing is still too confident about China’s economy – WSJ: ‘The danger then is that instead, Beijing mistakes the economy’s current troubles for something transitory—and that further weakness in exports and construction start to drag the overall labor market down again.’
China binnenland
China’s Xi Jinping sharpens focus on food and mineral supply chains – SCMP
Why China’s students now face a longer long march to join the Communist Party – SCMP
Detained Red Roulette billionaire Duàn Wěihóng 段伟红 resurfaces in China – SCMP
China’s state security wants to mobilise entire nation in counter-espionage – Reuters
China urges public to join ‘grim and complex’ anti-espionage fight as new law takes effect – SCMP
Ik zag enkele kritische Amerikaanse analisten dit vergelijken met de CIA-directeur die opriep tot een ‘all-of-society approach’, maar ik vind dat – los van het taalgebruik – een nogal manke vergelijking gezien de verschillen in taakstelling en methode tussen de Amerikaanse buitenlandse inlichtingendienst en de Chinese Stasi. Tegelijkertijd is het de zaak om niet helemaal paranoïde in paniek te schieten bij zulke oproepen van de Chinese diensten. Zulke oproepen zijn ook nodig omdat er wensen leven die nog geen werkelijkheid zijn.
Chinese regulator publishes blocks of more than 8,000 social media accounts in latest ‘clean up’ campaign – SCMP: ‘accounts it says violated the rights of businesses, including “smearing” the country’s first domestically produced passenger jet.’
China provincial audit finds covid facilities left abandoned and unusable – Caixin Global
Xinjiang
China using families as 'hostages' to quash Uyghur dissent abroad – BBC News
‘If I left, I’d have to go without a word’: how I escaped China’s mass arrests in Xinjiang – Tahir Hamut Izgil for The Guardian
Hikvision and Nvidia named in contract for ‘Uyghur detection’ – The Register
Iets om in het achterhoofd te houden de volgende keer dat je leest van een Nvidia-topman waarschuwt voor de gevaren van beperkingen op zakendoen met China…
China and United Arab Emirates to hold 1st joint air force drill, eye cooperation boost – The Global Times: ‘the China-UAE Falcon Shield-2023 joint air force exercise will be held in Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in August’
Over-Exposed: Uyghur Region Exposure Assessment for Solar Industry Sourcing – Alan Crawford and Laura T. Murphy, Sheffield Hallam University
Solar Power’s China Problem: Many of the industry’s key materials are made with forced labour – The New York Times
Hong Kong
Hong Kong removes requirement to flag China-related business risks in listing applications – Reuters: ‘The China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 20 met with local lawyers and asked them to refrain from including negative descriptions of China’s policies or its business and legal environment in companies' listing prospectuses, sources told Reuters.’
Hong Kong economic growth slows in second quarter after rebound – AFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
MAC Once Again Calls on Taiwanese Citizens to Beware of Escalating Risks when Traveling to Mainland China – Mainland Affairs Council, Republic of China (Taiwan): ‘Just a few days ago, some Taiwanese university professors visited mainland China at the invitation of mainland Chinese think tanks for an academic exchange. Upon arrival, however, one professor was detained and questioned for as long as four hours by airport personnel.’
Analysis: China’s military speeds preparations to contain Taiwan – Nikkei Asia
Taiwan to test less robust eastern defences with month-long missile drills – SCMP
Air Force to assess extending service life of Mirage 2000 fighter jets – Focus Taiwan: ‘Taiwan has purchased 66 new F-16Vs fighter jets from the United States, but there remain questions whether they can be delivered on time’
Taiwanese army ends contract with supplier over Chinese parts – Taipei Times
Taiwan to give Japan timber and money to rebuild fire-ravaged Shuri Castle in Okinawa – Focus Taiwan
Taiwanese development fund and Czech group to aid small businesses in post-quake Turkey – Taipei Times
Taiwan verkiezingen
KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 [Hóu Yǒuyí] seeks to position Taiwan as ‘risk reducer’ during Japan trip – Focus Taiwan
No employer complaints sought in KMT harassment cases – Taipei Times
Taiwan opposition party TPP takes down controversial ‘Vote White’ slogan – Taipei Times
Politicians call for Keelung ammunition depot to be moved following explosion – Focus Taiwan
Who would Terry Gou 郭台銘 hurt? – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic: ‘If there are three candidates from the blue side, it’s hard to imagine how any of the could cobble together enough votes to beat Lai.’
亂傳賴清德「爭取過境華府」 源頭疑國民黨駐美副代表秦日新 – 自由時報
Beschuldigingen dat de KMT-vicevertegenwoordiger in Washington DC Victor China geruchten zou verspreiden over de graagte waarmee DPP-kandiaat William Lai Ching-te op weg naar Latijns-Amerika in augustus niet alleen een tussenstop in de VS zou willen maken, maar zelfs Washington zou willen bezoeken.
罵鍾沛君「不要臉、禽獸不如」挨告 邱毅酸:別上演哭鬧秀 – 聯合報:「台北市議員鍾沛君和前立委邱毅因金溥聰批評羅智強事件互槓」
柯文哲直搗賴清德本命區 民進黨這些人都來了 – 聯合報:「除多名無黨籍里長到場,均為民進黨籍的台南市前副市長顏純左及曾任台南縣醫師公會理事長的哥哥顏純民都是座上賓,更是會場焦點。」
謝典林退黨為何被輕輕放下? 藍基層點名他解決派系紛爭 – 聯合報
Teveel detail voor de meeste mensen, maar vooral onrust binnen de KMT.
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Taiwan toughens penalties for sexual harassment after wave of #MeToo allegations – SCMP
Legislature passes prison law changes – Taipei Times
CDC halves self-health management period for people with mild Covid-19 – Taipei Times