De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 2 april: oefeningen Taiwan, Wang Yi in Rusland
De Chinese minister van buitenlandse zaken Wang Yi is in Rusland, waar hij de Russische president Poetin en minister van buitenlandse zaken Lavrov trof. De Chinese verslagen zijn verplichte lectuur. Ze maken het overlappende wereldbeeld en de strategische afstemming van Peking en Moskou goed duidelijk.
Ook een lesje voorzichtig met Chinese bronnen: internationale persbureaus namen een claim over van Chinese staatsmedia dat China, Japan en Zuid-Korea zouden gaan samenwerken bij hun antwoord op invoerheffingen van President Trump. Echter, Zuid-Korea corrigeerde dat deze voorstelling van zaken ‘enigszins overdreven’ was terwijl Japan ontkende dat hierover gediscussieerd was. Deze Chinese verdraaiing volgt op een eerdere Japanse klacht dat het Chinese ministerie van buitenlandse zaken woorden in de mond zou hebben gelegd van Japans premier Ishiba in een verslag van zijn ontmoeting met minister Wang Yi.
Op dinsdag werd Europa wakker met nieuws van weer Chinese militaire oefeningen rondom Taiwan. Deze keer zou de aanleiding bestaan uit de 17 maatregelen tegen de Chinese dreiging die President Lai recent aankondigde en eventueel uit Amerikaanse bezoeken aan de regio.
Zoals ik gisterochtend zei in het NOS Journaal op NPO Radio 1, vallen twee dingen mij vooral op:
De ‘escalerende normalisering’: de oefening was een plotselinge verrassing, kreeg geen codenaam als Joint Sword-2024B en er was geen kaartje met geblokkeerde gebieden zoals vorige keer. Hoewel de oefening zelf niet extremer was – er zou nog niet eens geschoten zijn – laat dit zien dat Peking opereren rondom Taiwan alsof het eigen gebied is wil normaliseren.
Propaganda beeldt Lai af als parasiet en verwijst sterker naar Taiwanese binnenlandse politiek dan voorheen. De parasiet-cartoon had de groene kleur van de regerende DPP die het blauw van oppositiepartij KMT verdreef en somde politieke twistpunten waarover de oppositie graag klaagt. Er lijkt grotere afstemming te ontstaan tussen China en Taiwanese oppositie, al dan niet met opzet.
Daarnaast nog een opmerking: de Chinese kustwacht deed ook een oefening, gericht op inspecties en vastnames. Deze dienst – met vrij grote schepen – zou een belangrijke rol spelen bij een quarantaine of blokkade van Taiwan.
Er was vanwege binnenlandse redenen al veel onrust in de Taiwanese politiek. Lai stijgt echter in de peilingen sinds zijn aankondiging van de zeventien maatregelen tegen de Chinese dreiging. Deze oefeningen zouden de DPP wel eens verder kunnen helpen bij de campagne om genoeg handtekeningen te verzamelen voor ‘recall elections’ die de KMT-meerderheid in het parlement als doelwit hebben.
Lang is het vaste commentaar geweest in de media dat de Taiwanese bevolking zich niet zo druk maakt om de loze Chinese dreigementen. Dat is inmiddels wel anders. De dreiging is concreter en de wereld is enger. Ook is het een belangrijke factor in de strijd tussen de steeds meer uitgesproken DPP onder Lai en de steeds meer China-vriendelijke KMT onder de huidige onduidelijke leiding .
De politieke stellingname van Lai komt tegelijkertijd met een mediastorm rond de deportatie van drie Chinese vrouwelijke influencers op een huwelijksvisum vanwege steun voor militaire annexatie van Taiwan. DPP hamert op de gevaren van ‘verenigd front’ en ‘cognitieve oorlogsvoering’, de KMT klaagt over uitholling van mensenrechten en vrijheid van meningsuiting. China is dagelijkse politiek – waarin Peking vooral redenen geeft aan Taiwanezen om China te verwerpen en defensie-uitbreiding te steunen.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Watching China in Europe—April 2025 – Noah Barkin: ‘This is the new reality for the EU: a US administration in which “no one knows what the f**k is going on” (according to a Trump ally quoted in Politico), and a Chinese government that is in no mood to compromise with an EU it views as weak, divided, and vulnerable.’ 🇪🇺
‘The big news there was that the [incoming German] coalition partners are dispensing with the partner-competitor-rival triptych that the EU has used for the past six years to describe China. The draft text of the coalition pact reads simply: “China has evolved into a systemic rival.”’ 🇩🇪
Après Marine, le déluge – POLITICO Brussels Playbook: ‘at least three people working for Huawei in Brussels have been arrested, as well as two others who were subcontractors for the company.’ 🇧🇪
‘Danish major general: China spies on NATO troops in Latvia “China conducts espionage against troops, says major general, it is seen as part of a strategic information gathering, might be linked to the Chinese partnership with Russia.”’ – Sari Arho Havrén, Twitter 🇩🇰🇱🇻🇷🇺
Putin urges Russia and China to further strengthen strategic cooperation – Xinhua: ‘Wang said that China-Russia collaboration "never targets third parties" and remains impervious to external interference’ ‘as pivotal stabilizing forces in a turbulent world, China and Russia must jointly uphold the outcomes of World War II’
Chinese and Russian foreign ministers agree to deepen practical cooperation and safeguard just international order – Xinhua: ‘work with Russia to promote a multi-polar world and greater democracy in international relations’
‘The two sides also exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis. Lavrov said that Russia eyes for eliminating the root causes of the crisis and is committed to building a lasting security architecture for Eurasia.
Wang reiterated China’s consistent position and expressed support for all peace efforts, noting that China is willing to continue to build more international consensus through the Group of Friends for Peace and play a constructive role in promoting a political settlement of the crisis.’ 🇷🇺
‘Friends forever, never enemies’, Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 tells Russia – Reuters: ‘Wang said current global conditions obliged big powers to act as stabilising factors, so it was encouraging that Russia and the United States had moved to improve relations.’ 🇷🇺
Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 lauds historical contributions of Chinese and Russians in Second World War – Xinhua: ‘In the last-ditch battle between justice and evil, China and Russia were respectively the main theaters of Asia and Europe, and the Chinese and Russian peoples were two major forces in resisting fascism and militarism, said Wang’ 🇷🇺
oefeningen Taiwan 🇹🇼🇨🇳
China launches military drills around Taiwan, calls its president a ‘parasite’ – Reuters: ‘China detests Lai as a “separatist,” and in a video accompanying the Eastern Theatre Command’s announcement of the drills depicted him as cartoon bug held by a pair of chopsticks above a burning Taiwan, calling him in English a “parasite”.’
Multiple forces of PLA Eastern Theater Command conduct joint exercises around Taiwan Island – Xinhua: ‘The theater command organized its army, navy, air and rocket forces to close in on Taiwan Island from multiple directions’
‘these drills mainly focus on sea-air combat-readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, assault on maritime and ground targets, and blockade of key areas and sea lanes to test the joint operation capabilities of the troops.’
China Coast Guard conducts law-enforcement patrols around Taiwan in accordance with one-China principle – Xinhua: ‘drills such as inspection, capture, interception and detention operations against unwarranted vessels’
China launches large-scale military exercises around Taiwan – FT: ‘Two people briefed on the situation said the [Chinese aircraft carrier] Shandong on Tuesday was approaching waters 24 nautical miles off Taiwan’s coast, the closest it has ever been to the Taiwanese mainland.’
No live-fire detected in latest Chinese PLA drills around Taiwan so far, Taiwanese defence ministry says – Focus Taiwan: ‘the MND said it had detected 13 PLA naval vessels, four coast guard vessels, and 71 military aircraft, operating around Taiwan as of Tuesday afternoon.’
Vergelijking van de aankondiging met die van Joint Sword-2024A en -2024B doet mij geen schokkende nieuwe focus opvallen.
Taipei condemns Chinese military drills around Taiwan – Focus Taiwan: ‘the Ministry of National Defense (MND) established a “response center” earlier the same day to monitor the PLA exercises.’
Taiwan coast guard warns of China using ‘pretext’ to launch war games this year at various dates – Reuters
Poll shows Taiwan President Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP)’s satisfaction rating at 55.6% – Taiwan News: ‘This marks the second-highest trust rating Lai has received in a My Formosa poll since taking office. It is also the third consecutive month in which dissatisfaction with his performance has exceeded 40%.’
‘My Formosa analysts suggested Lai’s higher trust rating may be linked to his recent speech on national security, in which he labeled China as a hostile force.’
DPP slams KMT over CCP links amid drills – Taipei Times: ‘KMT Deputy Chairman Andrew Hsia (夏立言) a day earlier visited top Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials in Henan Province’
‘The Lai administration should replace confrontation with dialogue and avoid war instead of provoking one, [the KMT said]’
Taiwanese coast guard arrests Chinese man in rubber boat off outlying island Kinmen – AFP 🇨🇳
Military chief says Philippines ‘inevitably’ involved if Taiwan invaded – AFP: ‘Part of his soldiers’ job would be “to rescue” a quarter million Filipinos working in Taiwan, Gen Brawner said’ 🇵🇭
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📉💥
EU readies counterstrike on Big Tech and US banks over Trump’s mega tariffs – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Trump tariffs should start ‘march to independence’ for Europe, says ECB chief Lagarde – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Will fresh US tariffs on China be ‘too large to absorb, too conspicuous to dodge’? – SCMP 🇨🇳
Is het al ‘Liberation Day’?
US to shun export control dialogues, seek ‘massive’ increase in China penalties, BIS chief says – Export Compliance Daily: ‘The Bureau of Industry and Security is ending its work in the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council as part of a broader effort to pull back from traditional export control dialogues with allies’ 🇪🇺🇺🇸
China’s export boom sparks record number of WTO disputes – FT: ‘More than half of the trade cases against China last year were initiated by developing countries, indicating that western countries’ objections to Chinese overproduction were widely shared.’
For China and US Inc, Trump’s trade war feels much worse this time – Reuters: ‘This time is different because low-end manufacturers are already struggling with razor-thin margins, so they cannot cut prices to help their U.S. customers, and local Chinese governments that might have provided support to protect jobs are mostly too cash-strapped to give new subsidies.’ 🇺🇸
Why the Chinese government is wary of a Trump-Xi summit – The New York Times: ‘Chinese officials are reluctant to schedule a summit until the two sides have negotiated details in advance, including a deal between the two countries that would endure for the rest of Mr. Trump’s term.’ 🇺🇸
China-US summit hopes fade as Trump goes hard on tariffs, Taiwan, and upending detente, Chinese observers say – SCMP 🇺🇸
China says beef imports investigation will be fair – Reuters
Techoorlog 💽💥
Bij ASML en NXP vermoedde niemand dat ‘einzelgänger’ German A. een spion was – NRC 🇳🇱🇷🇺
European leadership in particle physics threatened by China, CERN chief says – SCMP 🇪🇺
Xi Jinping is investing in China's science and technology research as Trump is gutting America’s research foundations –
Trump to consider final TikTok proposal Wednesday, sources say – CBS News: ‘plans for potential investors that could include Blackstone and Oracle’ 🇺🇸
Andreessen Horowitz, a vocal supporter of Trump, in talks to help buy out TikTok’s Chinese owners – FT 🇺🇸
GlobalFoundries weighs merger with no. 2 Taiwan chipmaker UMC 聯華電子, sources say – Nikkei Asia: ‘In an assessment plan seen by Nikkei Asia, a tie-up of GlobalFoundries-UMC would create a bigger, U.S.-based company with a production footprint across Asia, the U.S. and Europe.’
‘a potential GlobalFoundries-UMC deal would likely face regulatory scrutiny from Taiwan and China. China previously blocked Intel’s attempt to acquire Israel-based Tower Semiconductor to increase its capacity in the foundry segment, the business of making chips for outside clients.’ 🇺🇸
UMC 聯華電子 denies merger report; shares extend gains – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
UMC-oprichter Robert Tsao 曹興誠 staat op de Chinese sanctielijst, omdat hij in zijn pensioen zijn rijkdom inzet voor het beschermen van Taiwans onafhankelijkheid. Chinese propaganda zal een mogelijke samenvoeging tot bedrijf met Amerikaanse hoofdkwartier uitmelken als verder voorbeeld van de manier waarop DPP-regering de techindustrie al in de uitverkoop zou doen aan Trump in het geval van de TSMC-fabrieken in Arizona.
Taiwan’s no. 2 chipmaker UMC 聯華電子 opens US$5bn plant in Singapore – Nikkei Asia: ‘will make premium smartphone display chips, power-efficient memory chips for connected devices and next-generation connectivity chips’ 🇸🇬
What Malaysia can do to align with Washington’s chip export curbs – The Straits Times: ‘A top government source told The Straits Times that it is common for the authorities in Malaysia to act on credible information from other jurisdictions, including Washington, and assist in curbing illicit activity.’ 🇲🇾🇺🇸
TSMC 台積電 to invest over NT$1.5 trillion [€42bn] in Kaohsiung complex – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼
Shake-up in China’s state-owned auto sector: giants Dongfeng Motor 东风汽车 and Changan Automobile 长安汽车 are discussing a merger – The New York Times: ‘Beijing’s hope is that a combined company will be able to close excess factories for gasoline cars and become more successful in electric cars.’
Chinese government urges state-owned automakers to combine to boost EVs – Nikkei Asia
Microsoft shutters AI lab in Shanghai, signalling a broader pullback from China – SCMP 🇺🇸
Huawei 华为’s automotive revenue up nearly sixfold despite US clampdown – Nikkei Asia
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
US issues Iran-related sanctions against China and UAE-based entities – Reuters 🇺🇸
Chinese state media claims China, Japan, and South Korea will jointly respond to US tariffs – Reuters: ‘an assertion Seoul called “somewhat exaggerated”, while Tokyo said there was no such discussion.’ 🇯🇵🇰🇷
Veel internationale pers vielen voor deze spin van de Chinese staatsmedia. Eerder klaagde Japan al dat het Chinese buitenlandse zaken woorden in de mond had gelegd van de Japanse premier.
China woos the neighbours with Xi Jinping said to be planning 3-country tour in April – SCMP: ‘Diplomatic sources said that Xi would be likely to set off in mid-April, with stops in Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia.’ 🇻🇳🇲🇾🇰🇭
Chinese contractor of quake-hit building that collapsed in Bangkok under scrutiny – The Straits Times: ‘The building has […] drawn attention for being the only one in the metropolis to entirely collapse, triggering online anger and questions in Thai national media’ ‘points to an undercurrent of disquiet over a surge in Chinese investment in Thailand’ 🇹🇭
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s ‘Dragon-Elephant tango’ message to President Murmu on India-China relations – Hindustan Times 🇮🇳
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 and Indian president exchange congratulations on 75th anniversary of ties – Xinhua: ‘China and India, Xi said, both ancient civilizations, major developing countries and important members of the “Global South,” are both at a critical stage of their respective modernization efforts.’ 🇮🇳
China willing to import more Indian products, envoy says – Reuters 🇮🇳
Chinese government dual-purpose ‘spy ship’ circumnavigating southern Australia – Sky News: ‘in a path that is tracking a similar route to our deep-sea submarine cable.’ ‘The vessel is considered a “spy ship” and is understood to have a dual-purpose; legitimate scientific research while collecting intelligence.’ 🇦🇺
Australia monitoring Chinese research vessel off south coast – ABC News: ‘A spokesperson for Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke told the ABC that the research vessel’s activities weren't unprecedented.’ 🇦🇺
China and New Zealand lead historic dives in southern abyss, Australia complains – SCMP: ‘the scientists were from China, New Zealand, Malaysia, Denmark, Germany, France, Brazil, and India.’ ‘Australia was not part of the 80-day collaborative mission, despite its proximity to the Puysegur Trench and its substantial deep-ocean research community’ 🇦🇺🇳🇿
Het is de vraag of deze internationale groep wetenschappers en vooral Nieuw-Zeeland zich hebben geleend voor het civiel witwassen van een klassiek dual-use schip.
Liberal candidate Paul Chiang resigns over Chinese bounty comments – The Globe and Mail 🇨🇦
China nominates former vice finance minister Zōu Jiāyí 邹加怡 to be the next president of the AIIB – SCMP
China economie
China’s manufacturing hits 12-month high, driven by strong orders – Reuters: ‘The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 50.5 in March from 50.2 a month prior, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)’
For last year though, aggregate core earnings for China’s top five developers are seen down 93% over the year – Bloomberg: ‘the recovery in housing market remains fragile, as new-home prices experienced a more rapid decline in February’
Property sales at Chinese developer Country Garden 碧桂园 drop by over a third – FT
Chinese banks increase consumer loan rates to protect margins – Bloomberg
China binnenland
Chinese central government’s plans for social credit system evolve with 23 new guidelines from Beijin – SCMP: ‘including plans for government and enterprise credit ratings, along with rewards and punishments.’
Hú Déhuá 胡德华, son of former [comparatively] liberal Chinese leader Hú Yàobāng 胡耀邦, dies at 76 – SCMP: ‘Hu was a liberal businessman who repeatedly spoke out for political reform and press freedom in China – rare among the descendants of the Communist Party’s early top officials, a group known as “princelings”.’
CNOOC 中海油 discovers significant new oil and gas reservoir in undisputed area of South China Sea – Maritime Executive
China struggles with ‘high standard’ farmland upgrades – Dim Sums
Hong Kong
Beijing-backed media ramp up attack on CK Hutchison 長江和記實業 ports deal – Reuters: ‘Ta Kung Pao published on Monday a full page of news articles that included comments from Hong Kong politicians and Chinese lawyers urging the Hong Kong conglomerate to rethink the transaction and supporting Chinese regulators’ decision to review the deal.’
Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison 長江和記實業 says no decision made on telco spin off – Reuters: ‘Reuters reported on Friday, citing sources, the company is mulling a spin-off of global telecom assets and would list the business on the London stock exchange.’
Hong Kong’s top court overturns ex-lawmaker Lam Cheuk-ting 林卓廷’s acquittal over disclosing ICAC probe – HKFP: ‘The [police] superintendent was under investigation for his role in the Yuen Long mob attacks.’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
President Lai urges steps to stabilise Taiwan’s economy as US tariffs loom – Focus Taiwan: ‘Lai heard a presentation by Cho and members of the government’s “Taiwan-U.S. trade work group” on Sunday evening.’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan remains on US annual report on foreign trade barriers – Focus Taiwan: ‘Other potential members include Japan, the European Union, and China.’ 🇺🇸
Pro-CCP posts by China-based Taiwanese entertainers could draw fines, source says – Taipei Times: ‘Several Taiwanese entertainers have posted on the social media platform Sina Weibo saying that Taiwan “must be returned” to China, and sharing news articles from Chinese state media.’
‘In response, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has asked the Ministry of Culture to investigate whether the entertainers had contravened any laws, and asked for them to be questioned upon their return to Taiwan, an official familiar with the matter said.’ 🇨🇳
Second Chinese ‘military unification’ influencer leaves Taiwan – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
Third Chinese ‘military unification’ influencer forcibly deported – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
Taiwanese coast guard has expelled Chinese illegal fishers 77 times at Pratas/Dongsha Islands so far this year – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Taiwanese government disbands rescue team put on stand-by to help Myanmar after earthquake – Focus Taiwan 🇲🇲
Taiwanese foreign ministry still awaits South Africa’s response on office relocation and renaming – Focus Taiwan 🇿🇦
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Why has the KMT chosen to advance referendums through the legislature rather than collecting signatures? – New Bloom: ‘Though the KMT should have no issue gathering the number of signatures for at least the first stage of recall petitions, the KMT’s recall efforts have stumbled unusually.’ ‘appears to have its roots in the weaknesses of the KMT’s local party chapters’
DPP continues hold podium and placards to block KMT’s referendum proposals in legislature – Taipei Times
Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) temporarily released to receive care – Taipei Times
Cabinet to ask for legislative revote on raising of police pensions – Focus Taiwan