De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 18 oktober: Belt and Road Forum, ASML geraakt door nieuwe Amerikaanse beperkingen
Het Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) van Xi Jinping is tien jaar. Deze week is het derde Belt and Road Forum in Peking. Xi gaat naar verwachting een nieuw maritiem initiatief aankondigen die met Afrika de natuurlijke bronnen in de oceanen moet helpen ontwikkelen.
Tegelijkertijd is er een hele serie buitenlandse leiders op bezoek in Peking. Uit Europa is de Servische president Aleksandar Vučić op bezoek en de Hongaarse premier Viktor Orbán. Orbán maakte gelijk gebruik van de kans om de eveneens bezoekende Russische president Vladimir Poetin te treffen. Zou hij ook tijd hebben voor de eveneens aanwezige Taliban?
Het is lastig om één oordeel te vellen over BRI. Het is namelijk een boel verschillende dingen. Aan de bovenkant is het een geopolitieke visie van een losjes op China gerichte economisch geörienteerde wereldorde. Aan de onderkant is het een verzameling projecten die soms wel en soms niet in echte lokale behoeftes van partnerlanden voorzien.
In alle gevallen waren de financiële draagkracht en lokale wetgeving van de buitenlandse partners niet per se de prioriteit van de Chinese provinciale autoriteiten, banken, en bedrijven die projecten voorstelden, financierden en uitvoerden. Dat kan soms de indruk wekken van grotere opzet van het ondermijnen van andermans soevereiniteit dan meestal de bedoeling was.
Ondertussen is men aan de top in Peking zich ook bewust geworden dat dingen moeten veranderen. Ten eerste wil men wat doen aan de schuldenproblemen en ontevredenheid. Maar ten tweede heeft China ook minder ruimte om grote leningen uit te zetten nu de binnenlandse economie minder explosief groeit.
Deze top zal dan ook in het teken staan van zowel de alternatieve wereldorde die Peking buiten de Verenigde Staten en het ‘Amerikaanse’ Westen om wil bouwen als ook andersoortige projecten.
Verder: een jaar na de eerste maatregelen die zoveel teweeg hebben gebracht, kondigt de Verenigde Staten een update aan van de halfgeleidercontrolemaatregelen (Scrabble!). ASML wordt ook geraakt, hoewel ze nog aan het inventariseren zijn hoe erg.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Lawmakers urge European Commission to take on China’s ‘deplorable’ fishing practices – SCMP: ‘Also on Monday, EU lawmakers voted to endorse the parliament’s version of a ban on products made using forced labour.’ 🇪🇺
Opinie: China maakt van wetenschap geopolitiek en Nederland weigert dat in te zien – Jeroen Groenewegen-Lau in de Volkskrant: „Het is duidelijk dat zelfregulering niet toereikend is.” 🇳🇱
‘Minister Wu enjoyed reconnecting with our firm friends from #Belgium, @ElsVanHoofcdenv & @G_Dallemagne, as he welcomed other 6 MPs on their 1st #Taiwan visit. The shared consensus on bolstering democratic solidarity against authoritarianism epitomizes the essence of our ties!’ – 外交部 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ROC (Taiwan), Twitter 🇧🇪
Xi and Putin in Beijing: The burgeoning alliance between Russia and China – Der Spiegel: ‘they share an overarching political goal: that of breaking U.S. dominance.’
‘All our drones come from China,’ Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov says – dpa 🇺🇦
Italy says 58 arrested in Italy and Spain suspected of drug trafficking via Chinese money brokers – Reuters 🇮🇹🇪🇸
Taiwan officially opens 2nd representative office in Italy, at Milan – Focus Taiwan 🇮🇹
Rishi Sunak’s UK government quietly revives plan for China trade talks – POLITICO Europe 🇬🇧
Interview: UK and China enjoy cooperation opportunities in culture, says UK official – Xinhua 🇬🇧
20,000 Britons approached by Chinese agents on LinkedIn, says MI5 head – The Guardian 🇬🇧
Israël-Palestina 🇮🇱🇵🇸
Chinese Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 backs efforts to give Palestinians their ‘legitimate national rights’ in call with Egyptian counterpart – SCMP: ‘He also told Shoukri that “China supports the Arab and Islamic countries in forming a common position and speaking with a united voice”.’
(BRF2023) Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 meets UN chief – Xinhua: ‘Wang noted that China will take the three-point proposal for the settlement of the Palestinian question put forward by President Xi Jinping as the basic principle’
Dat betreft een voorstel dat Xi deed tijdens het bezoek van de Palestijnse president Abbas afgelopen juni: (i) volledig soevereine Palestijnse staat in de grenzen van 1967 met oost Jerusalem als hoofdstad, (ii) economische en levensvoorziennige noden verzorgen en (iii) juiste richting bewaren van vredesonderhandelingen.
China and Russia harden positions on Gaza as war stirs geopolitical tensions – The Guardian
Russia’s Lavrov discusses Middle East crisis and Ukraine with China’s Wáng Yì 王毅 – Reuters
(BRF2023) Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 meets Russian counterpart – Xinhua: ‘Wang said China condemns all forms of actions that harm civilians and opposes any act that violates the international law.’
Chinese embassy in US warns students against joining protests over Israel-Hamas conflict – SCMP
Belt and Road Forum 🥋🛣️
China’s megaproject om de wereld te verbinden heeft na tien jaar zijn glans verloren – NRC
Op de verjaardag van de Nieuwe Zijderoute moet Xi Jinping zijn megaplan bijsturen – de Volkskrant
Belt and Road Forum kicks off with Xi Jinping to lay out new pitch – Nikkei Asia
China to unveil new maritime cooperation initiative at belt and road summit – SCMP: ‘Wang on Monday said China would use a platform developed with Egypt and the United Nations to boost cooperation with African countries in areas including sustainable development of marine resources.’
President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s US$1 trillion Belt and Road project faces an uncertain future – Bloomberg: ‘The US assesses that the BRI is in deep trouble, according to a senior American official who asked not to be identified to discuss private conversations. Beijing has less capital to lend and pressure is growing to recoup the outstanding money it loaned, the official said.’
Chinese Vice Premier Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 stresses sustainable debt for Belt and Road Initiative at CEO forum – Bloomberg
diplomatie
Belt and road forum ‘a showcase’ for China’s growing global influence – SCMP: ‘As part of its “great power diplomacy”, China would also seek to showcase its influence on the world stage and drum up support as its strategic competition with the United States deepened, [Wang Fei-Ling] said.’
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 says he considers Hungary’s Viktor Orbán a ‘friend’ – Reuters 🇭🇺
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán – Xinhua: ‘Hungary opposes decoupling, severing supply chains, and the so-called “de-risking,” said the prime minister.’ 🇭🇺
(BRF2023) Chinese premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 holds talks with Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán – Xinhua: ‘Li and Orban witnessed the signing of a number of bilateral cooperation documents’ 🇭🇺
Putin and Orbán in China reaffirm Russian-Hungarian ties amid international strains – Reuters 🇭🇺
Serbia snubs Berlin Process Summit meeting in Albania to sign trade deal with China – EURACTIV 🇷🇸
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 seeks to promote stronger ties with ‘ironclad friend’ Serbia – Reuters: ‘Xi also pledged China’s support for Serbia in safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity.’ 🇷🇸🇽🇰
Russian leader Putin arrives in China for belt and road forum – SCMP 🇷🇺
China’s Belt and Road Forum to illuminate scope of Russia ties – Nikkei Asia 🇷🇺
Chinese vice president Hán Zhèng 韩正 calls for stronger cooperation between China and UK meeting Tony Blair – Xinhua 🇬🇧
Taliban representative arrives in Beijing to attend Belt and Road Forum – Reuters 🇦🇫
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 touts close relationship with Chile in talks – Reuters 🇨🇱
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets Kazakhstan president, pushes for more cooperation – Reuters 🇰🇿
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 supports stronger international role for Papua New Guinea – Reuters 🇵🇬
achtergrond
China got a big contract. Nepal got debt and a pricey airport. – The New York Times: ‘China CAMC Engineering had repeatedly dictated business terms to maximize profits and protect its interests, while dismantling Nepali oversight of its work.’
Xinhua Commentary: How the Belt and Road gives rise to a more inclusive world – Liu Bowei for Xinhua
BRI is only first step in China’s strategy for a new world order – Niva Yau for Nikkei Asia
Tech War 💽💥
nieuwe maatregelen VS
The US is restricting the sale of AI chips that Nvidia designed specifically for the Chinese market, part of sweeping new updates to export curbs – Bloomberg: ‘The US is also expanding the scope of manufacturing gear subject to restrictions, said senior administration officials, without specifying the exact equipment. Asked whether the US would restrict less advanced DUV machines, which are mainly supplied by Dutch chip equipment leader ASML Holding NV, an administration official said that Washington has worked with the Netherlands on the policy.’
How the US will cut off China from more AI chips – Reuters
Explainer: Biden combines billions in chipmaking grants with China curbs to keep US ahead – Reuters
VS leggen strengere exportrestricties naar China op aan ASML – NRC 🇳🇱
Nieuwe Amerikaanse exportrestricties raken ASML – FD 🇳🇱
ASML said new updates to US export curbs that are designed to block China’s access to highly advanced semiconductor technology will lower its sales to the Asian country in the medium to long term – Bloomberg 🇳🇱
Statement regarding US government’s export control regulations announcement –ASML 🇳🇱
overige
Chinese electric vehicle groups braced for wave of consolidation – FT
TSMC abandons plan to build advanced fab in Longtan amid protests – Focus Taiwan
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
China tightens curbs on foreign travel by bankers and state workers – Reuters
US negotiator signs new deal with strategic Marshall Islands – Reuters
US military open to drafting contingency plans with Japan and South Korea – Nikkei Asia
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Chinese military jet intercepts Canadian Forces plane in ‘aggressive manner’ – Global News CA: ‘Global News was on board the Canadian military aircraft reporting on the mission’ ‘The Chinese jets came within about five metres of the Canadian plane.’ ‘The Chinese jet also launched multiple firework-like flares near the Canadian aircraft.’
‘The 13-member crew on board the Canadian mission is tasked with helping to stop illegal oil shipments to North Korea. During this mission, senior CAF members said the crew identified a listed “vessel of interest.”’
China lodges protest over Canadian plane, says it violated sovereignty [over contested Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands] – Reuters
Niet de eerste keer dat dit deze Canadese missie gebeurt.
Pentagon releases footage of hundreds of ‘highly concerning’ aircraft intercepts by Chinese planes – AP
Chinese deputy envoy Xu Xueyan uses rough language to describe US relations – SCMP: ‘“And people say that ‘When you Chinese talk about win-win, for us it’s China winning twice, win two times,’ I think that is bulls**t,” Xu added.’
‘Xu also said the US elections next year – including Biden’s bid for a second term – would challenge the bilateral relationship. “Personally I’m not just not quite confident or quite optimistic on how much longer, how big a window of opportunity we are talking about, in stabilising this relationship,” she said.’
Chinese deputy envoy Xu Xueyan sets four conditions for Xi-Biden summit – Nikkei Asia: ‘the U.S. needs to show consideration for four “core interests” for China to move forward toward a November summit.’
Matter of minutes: Why Australian CGTN anchor Cheng Lei did not see her family for three years – The Sydney Morning Herald: ‘because she broke an embargo on a Chinese government briefing by just a few minutes, leading to national security charges’
China houdt Suriname in de greep met onbetaalbare schulden – Follow the Money
Philippines denounces China for ‘dangerous and offensive’ actions in South China Sea – Reuters
Japan PM Kishida Fumio 岸田 文雄 sends offering to war-linked Yasukuni shrine for fall rite – Kyodo News: ‘Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Beijing “firmly opposes Japan’s negative moves” and has lodged “stern representations” with Tokyo.’
China and Japan say their ships faced off near disputed Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands – Reuters
China economie
Exclusive: China tells banks to roll over existing local government debts, according sources – Reuters: ‘Local government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion), or 76% of the country's economic output in 2022’
China to discuss advancing 2024 bond quota as local authorities struggle for liquidity – SCMP
China’s debt-ridden local governments face rising pressure to repay debt, and fallout from possible property-developer collapses could be crushing – SCMP
China property crisis: troubled Country Garden fights to avert default as US$15 million offshore debt deadline looms – SCMP
Borrowing surges among private Shenzhen enterprises – Caixin Global
Tweedeling in Chinese economie neemt verder toe.
China’s central bank chief Pān Gōngshèng 潘功胜 vows to seize economic momentum to boost confidence – SCMP
China binnenland
Marking the 110th birth anniversary of Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s father a relatively low-key affair in China – The Straits Times
Local governments in China recruit thousand ‘grid workers’ to monitor its citizens’ words and deeds – RFA
Hong Kong
‘We don’t feel safe here’: Hongkongers in UK fear long reach of Chinese government – The Guardian: ‘Lau has already been violently attacked when walking through Richmond, west London, in a case the Metropolitan police classified as a hate crime.’
Hong Kong court rules that gay couples get equal housing rights – Reuters
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Fearing China, South Korea targets firms building Taiwan navy submarines – Reuters: ‘charged marine technology firm SI Innotec last year with violating trade laws’ ‘two other South Korean companies that allegedly supplied Taiwan were also charged in November with breaking trade laws, and one of their chief executives was accused of industrial espionage’
Een van de beschuldigingen aan KMT-parlementslid Ma Wen-chun is dat ze vertrouwelijke informatie uit besloten commissie-zitting door had gespeeld aan de Zuid-Koreaanse vertegenwoordiging in Taipei, wat Seoel hielp bij deze aanklachten.
Taiwan military to stage tri-service combat readiness drills in wake of China stepping up military activities – Focus Taiwan
China tour group reboot on hold, transport minister says – Taipei Times: ‘“if Beijing only allows Taiwanese to visit China while continuing to impose a travel ban to Taiwan for Chinese group travelers, it would eventually hurt our hoteliers and restaurateurs,” Wang said.’
US should be ‘peacemaker’ between Beijing and Taipei, former president Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 (KMT) says at NYU – SCMP
De Chinese nationalist Ma wil dat de Taiwanese regering weer erkent dat het onderdeel is van één China via zijn Consensus van 1992 en ziet een rol voor de Verenigde Staten om Taipei hiertoe aan te moedigen.
Four indicted for hiring locals for Chinese tech firms – Taipei Times
Taiwan verkiezingen
From dove to hawk: KMT’s transformation and the quest for new guardrails in cross-Strait relations – Dennis Lu Chung Weng (KMT) for Brookings
De KMT presenteert zich in de VS inderdaad op deze manier, maar ik geloof er niks van dat dit oprecht gedeeld wordt door de partij-elite in Taiwan zelf of dat ze hetzelfde verhaal vertellen aan hun Chinese contacten. Zo traineert de KMT nog altijd regelmatig defensiebegrotingen en probeert er dingen uit te slopen, terwijl ze de Amerikanen vertellen op defensie in te willen zetten naast dialoog met Peking. Tegelijkertijd is het wel duidelijk dat delen van de partij, zoals deze auteur, de KMT willen bijsturen in reactie op de peilingen die Weng ook aanhaalt.
Substance, symbolism, and Taiwan-US relations – Lin Fei-fan (DPP) for Brookings
Lin maakt het belangrijke punt dat vanuit de DPP bekeken handelingen zoals het bezoek van Pelosi die critici afdoen als ‘symbolisch’ wel degelijk materieel belang hebben voor Taiwan. De cognitieve strijd is voor de DPP ook een belangrijk slagveld.
TPP proposes polling methods for joint candidate as electoral pact remains elusive – Focus Taiwan: ‘King Pu-tsung (金溥聰), Hou's campaign executive officer, said the TPP was "domineering" by expecting the KMT to go along with its proposals.’
柯文哲喊公開潛艦會議紀錄!李正皓怒:一直講幹話還想當總統? – 三立新聞網:「柯文哲在專訪表示自己『會把所有會議記錄上網公開,這樣就好了,敵人的敵人〔中共?〕會幫我收拾他們,哪裡需要我動手』」
De KMT en TPP proberen al tijden een sfeer van DPP-schandaal te creëren rond de lokaal gebouwde onderzeeërs. Nu is er een echt schandaal rond KMT-parlementslid Ma Wen-chun, die toegeeft gevoelige informatie te hebben doorgespeeld aan Zuid-Korea. Ko Wen-je zegt dat hij als president ter oplossing alle notulen vrij zou geven, omdat de vijand van zijn vijand – de CCP? – het wel door zou spitten. Daarmee zou hij ook gelijk geheimen doorspelen aan China en de landen/bedrijven/experts die in het geheim hebben geholpen voor de leeuwen gooien.
黃國昌入民眾黨不分區? 王婉諭:多次徵詢未果 – 台視新聞網
Vervreemde oprichter van progressieve oppositiepartij NPP Huang Kuo-chang zou op de partijlijst komen te staan bij Ko Wen-je’s TPP.
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council says it has warned temples and universities about CCP election interference – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Taiwan’s economy forecast to grow 1.5% this year, according to National Development Council – Taipei Times
Cabinet to heed experts after DPP claims new Taichung MRT line adjusted by KMT-led city government to benefit powerful landlords – Taipei Times
Foreign ministry sees sexual harassment charges against ex-envoys to Philippines and Thailand as credible – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan to see major changes in migrant worker policy in coming months – New Bloom