De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 16 augustus: Chinese economie, Lai Ching-te
Nadat eerder al schrijvers van beursprospecti en economen de opdracht hadden gekregen om minder negatief te zijn over de Chinese economie, gaat Peking nu een stap verder. De schrikbarend hoge werkloosheidcijfers van Chinese stedelingen 16–24 worden nu niet meer gepubliceerd, omdat het moeilijk zou zijn. Chinese werkloosheidscijfers geven al een vertekend beeld, omdat ze de plattelanders die de fabrieken bemensen niet meenemen.
Er zijn grote zorgen over de staat van de Chinese economie, maar onder economen zijn de meningen over de oorzaak van de deplorable staat ervan nog verdeeld. Daarover bij de achtergrondstukken vrijdag meer. Maar ondertussen wordt het dus steeds minder mogelijk om openlijk hierover te publiceren in China volgens de berichtgeving. Jammer dat je er niet zelf enige tijd kunt zijn.
Taiwans vicepresident én DPP-presidentskandidaat Lai Ching-te is in de Amerika’s. Hij heeft een belangrijk interview gegeven aan Bloomberg Businessweek over zijn best wel redelijke overtuigingen over de status van Taiwan. De moeite van het lezen waard, aangezien hij nog altijd de meest waarschijnlijke winnaar is aankomend januari.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Denmark minister for foreign affairs to visit China – Xinhua 🇩🇰
China defence minister Lǐ Shàngfú 李尚福; to visit Russia and Belarus August 14-19 – Reuters
Dahua’s cameras with ‘skin colour analytics’ sold in EU risk GDPR noncompliance – IPVM
China economie
China stopt met publiceren cijfers over jeugdwerkloosheid onder mom van ‘optimaliseren’ registratiesysteem – de Volkskrant
China stopt met het publiceren van werkloosheidscijfers onder jongeren – NRC
China statistics bureau stops releasing youth unemployment rates amid economic gloom – AFP
China statistics bureau sees no deflation risks, plays down property woes – Reuters
Niks te zien, mensen!
Het land van beloofde groei? Nee, China hoopt vooral dat niet te veel bedrijven vertrekken – Trouw
China cuts key rates as weak batch of July data darkens economic outlook – Reuters
China’s industrial production growth slowed to 3.7% in July – Nikkei Asia
China real estate slump deepens with 8.5% investment drop – Nikkei Asia
Is China’s property crisis at breaking point? Country Garden 碧桂园 heads for debt workout while Sino-Ocean 远洋集团 misses payments – SCMP
Country Garden is not a repeat of Evergrande, but it’s in the same hole – FT Alphaville
China’s banking regulator has set up a taskforce to examine risks at one of the nation’s top private wealth managers, Zhongzhi 中植集团, after a unit missed payments on multiple high-yield investment products – Bloomberg: ‘Nearly half of the funds raised by Zhongrong were funneled to its parent or affiliated units, one of the people said.’
Chinese state media has largely avoided reporting about turmoil at one of the nation’s top private wealth managers, Zhongzhi 中植集团, despite the episode underscoring concern about possible contagion economic risk – Bloomberg
China is becoming more trouble than it’s worth for US investment banks – Kaye Wiggins for FT
China’s state-owned firms overtake private sector in economic slump – Nikkei Asia
Lai Ching-te in de Amerikas
The threat of war with China is the defining issue in Taiwan’s presidential election. Lai Ching-te 賴清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP), front-runner in the polls, might be the one to lead Taiwan during this uncertain period – Bloomberg Businessweek: ‘Lai comes across as less of a firebrand than measured and calculating.’
Tsai’s approach to China has largely won her plaudits in Taiwan and the US (less so in Beijing). Which is why Lai has presented himself as the continuity candidate to both Taiwan’s voters and the policy wonks in the US; he likens himself and Tsai to Biden and Barack Obama, saying he’ll continue her China policies and keep the same national security team in place when he takes office.
The opposition has responded by portraying Lai as having more extreme views than Tsai and saying tensions with China will get worse if he’s elected. They point to statements he’s made that seem to advocate seeking formal independence from China, such as when he visited Shanghai. Ask Lai if he’ll declare independence—he gets that a lot—and he’ll repeat a line adopted from Tsai: “Taiwan is already a sovereign, independent country called the Republic of China.”
As much as he pitches himself as the continuity candidate, it’s glaringly obvious that he and Tsai are very different people. Tsai grew up relatively affluent; her father owned a car repair business when cars were still an item only the wealthy could afford. An academic who became a trade negotiator, she’d run only once—unsuccessfully—for public office before being named the DPP’s presidential candidate. Whereas Lai memorizes speeches but sometimes freewheels, Tsai is known for reading hers and never going off script.
Transcript of our interview with Taiwan’s leading presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te 賴清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP) – Bloomberg Businessweek
We don’t want to be enemies; we can be friends. And we would love to see China enjoy democracy and freedom – just like us. As long as there is parity and dignity, our door is always open. We are willing to cooperate with China to advance peace and prosperity. However, until China renounces the use of force against Taiwan, we must strengthen our military capacity and stand shoulder to shoulder with democracies to effectively deter the threats from China and secure stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
[…]
Taiwan is already a sovereign, independent country called the Republic of China. It is not part of the People’s Republic of China. The ROC and PRC are not subordinate to one another. It is not necessary to declare independence.
Taiwan sees no Chinese military response yet to Vice President Lai Ching-te 賴清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP)’s US trip – Reuters
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s Remarks on Lai Ching-te’s US “Stopover” – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China: ‘Lai Ching-te clings stubbornly to the separatist position for “Taiwan independence”. He is a troublemaker through and through.’
Vice President Lai Ching-te 賴清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP) meets overseas Taiwanese and watches baseball game in New York stopover – Focus Taiwan: ‘Among Lai's supporters was Tom Su (蘇春槐), father of Lisa Su (蘇姿丰), the head of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)’
Vice President Lai Ching-te 賴清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP) attends Paraguayan president inaugural ceremony – Focus Taiwan
賴清德出席巴拉圭總統就職典禮 美內政部長邀合照 – 自由時報
Paraguayan president-elect vows to keep Taiwan ties – Focus Taiwan
Tech War 💽💥
The US now accepts national and economic security can’t be separated – Rana Foroohar for FT: ‘The new rule is actually much more about expertise than money.’ ‘For years, the west thought security and market concerns were separate. But for China, national security and economic security are the same thing.’
Chinese mainland announces anti-dumping measure on polycarbonate (PC) imports from Taiwan – Xinhua: ‘PC can be used in many fields such as electronic appliances, automobiles, optics, packaging and medical devices.’
China slaps punitive tariffs on polycarbonate – Taipei Times
China bankrolls Africa railroad to cut Australia iron-ore reliance – Nikkei Asia
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Duits regeringsvliegtuig stelt weer eens teleur: buitenlandminister gestrand in Abu Dhabi – NRC
Tot zover de Duitse Indo-Pacifische tour.
How China’s Communist Party seeks to win friends and influence through Mideast political groups – SCMP
China and Russia pursue Eritrea for its strategic location in Africa, resources, and transport potential – SCMP
China’s maritime ambitions boosted, claims largest shipping fleet title from Greece – SCMP
Taiwan’s Foxconn (Hon Hai) to invest ‘billions’ in India expansion push – Nikkei Asia
Taiwan’s investments in New Southbound Policy countries top those in China – Focus Taiwan
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China opposes UN Security Council meeting on North Korea rights – Reuters
Japan urged to cease interfering in China-Russia joint maritime patrols – Xinhua: ‘The Japanese side’s interfering moves are perilous and could easily lead to misjudgments and accidents, Wu added.’
China makes serious demarches to Japanese politician Aso Taro’s irresponsible remarks on Taiwan question: spokesperson – Xinhua
Japan should make clean break with militarism: spokesperson – Xinhua: ‘made clear its solemn position against Japanese politicians' negative moves related to the Yasukuni Shrine’
Canada’s corporate watchdog probes Ralph Lauren on alleged use of forced Uyghur labour in China – Reuters
China and Thailand to hold anti-terror military training – Xinhua
Verenigde Staten
China binnenland
Chinese Communistische Partij wordt groter en grijzer – De Telegraaf
China’s fertility rate drops to record low 1.09 in 2022, state media reports – Reuters
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s article on Chinese modernisation to be published – Xinhua
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 makes instructions on China's first National Ecology Day – Xinhua
Hong Kong
Veroordelingen van prominente voorvechters van democratie in Hongkong gedeeltelijk vernietigd – NRC
7 prominent Hong Kong activists, including media tycoon Jimmy Lai, cleared of organising 2019 protest by Court of Appeal – HKFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
US-Taiwan talks on ADTA tax agreement under way, official says, in move that could benefit chip maker TSMC – SCMP
Het ontbreken van een belastingverdrag met de VS was altijd nog een belangrijk pijnpunt voor Taiwan.
US$345 million [€315m] military aid package for Taiwan includes four MQ-9A reconnaissance drones, according to military source – Focus Taiwan
UN envoys from diplomatic allies arrive in Taipei – Taipei Times
Philippines sees risk of conflict over Taiwan as a ‘major concern’ – Reuters
Taiwan verkiezingen
批死刑犯聲請釋憲 侯友宜:當選總統一定執行死刑 – Mirror Media
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Ex-general sentenced to 12 years for misappropriating NT$7,990 [€230] washing machine – Focus Taiwan
Constitutional Court ruling on case allotment rules hurts retrial hopes of death row convicts – Focus Taiwan