De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 15 november: tijdrekken met APEC
Rond de Chinese spionageballon en bezoeken van/aan Taiwan rezen de spanningen tussen China en de Verenigde Staten tot oncomfortabele hoogte. Zowel Washington DC als Peking hebben sindsdien duidelijk laten zien dat ze de temperatuur omlaag willen brengen.
De regering Biden was duidelijk bang dat de boel uit de hand zou lopen. Ook begon door te dringen dat veel hoofdsteden (deels) de schuld dreigden te geven aan Amerikaanse Sturm und Drang. Het is effectiever om je als de constructieve partij op te stellen, ook al moet je eerst een paar bezoeken aan China afleggen voordat je iets terug krijgt.
Dat Peking erop stond dat de VS zich vragend opstelde om dialoog terug te krijgen, blijkt duidelijk uit de reconstructies van het diplomatieke verkeer van de afgelopen weken/maanden. Tegelijkertijd is ook duidelijk uit ontmoetingen, toezeggingen en propaganda dat China nu ook de dialoog zoekt.
Naast de Amerikaanse argumenten van hierboven die ook opgaan voor China, is mijns inziens de belangrijkste reden dat de CCP denkt dat China een strategische pauze nodig heeft. De economische uitdagingen, de oplopende spanningen en de omslaande mondiale opinie zetten druk op de regering van Xi Jinping.
In de sectie over de APEC-top die nu plaatsvindt in San Francisco vind je een aantal goede stukken die de benodigde context geven. Hoewel de Chinese diplomatiek een zekere bereidheid om Amerika wat smoel te geven laat zien, zijn de interne propaganda en de beleidsinstructies binnen de partijstaat nog altijd gericht op fundamentele competitie met de Verenigde Staten.
Het is belangrijk dat Biden en Xi elkaar treffen. Het is goed dat beide kanten proberen de temperatuur te verlagen. Tegelijkertijd moeten we onze kop erbij houden: China probeert ook Europa zo ver te krijgen dat het stopt met terugduwen tegen Chinese systeemrivaliteit. Tegelijkertijd gaat Peking zelf achter alle retoriek over win-winsamenwerking rustig door met de eigen strategische agenda. Het heeft alleen even behoefte aan een adempauze nu de tegendruk wel erg sterk wordt.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
EU values-based foreign policy risks creating a ‘lot of rivals’, Chinese ambassador Fù Cōng 傅聪 warns – SCMP: ‘Fu Cong railed against the bloc’s “mind-boggling” characterisation of Beijing as a “rival”, drawing on the Israel-Gaza war for illustration.’
‘Addressing the event after Fu, the EU’s ambassador to China [Jorge Toledo] defended the bloc’s de-risking policy’ ‘Toledo also attacked what he described as Beijing’s “double standards” on Ukraine.’ 🇪🇺
Chinese companies still see promise in EU despite de-risking, according to Chinese Chamber of Commerce survey – Reuters 🇪🇺
Finland and Estonia send legal cooperation letter to China over Baltic Sea cable and pipeline drama – POLITICO Europe 🇫🇮🇪🇪
Vilnius and Beijing are in talks on normalising relations, says Lithuanian foreign minister – LRT: ‘Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu is visiting Lithuania this week and met with parliamentary leadership, but none of the country’s government officials.’ 🇱🇹
Germany eager to expand relations with Taiwan, senior diplomat Petra Sigmund tells Berlin conference – Focus Taiwan: ‘Berlin allows contact up to the ministerial level, with the only restrictions being on the so-called “big seven” functions’ 🇩🇪
Can new UK foreign secretary David Cameron put China ‘golden era’ behind him to keep with modern British policy? – SCMP: ‘In 2017, he was involved in the launch of a US$1 billion UK-China investment fund’ ‘The British Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) found this year that Cameron’s appointment as vice-chair of the fund was “in part engineered by the Chinese state”.’
‘Last month, Politico reported that Cameron had flown to Sri Lanka and Middle Eastern cities to try to convince foreign investors to pump money into the Colombo Port City project — a major node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.’ 🇬🇧
Hungary’s Chinese electric vehicle ambitions thwarted by anti-immigration grief – Nikkei Asia 🇭🇺
APEC 🌁🗻
Biden en Xi praten tenminste weer, en deze zes punten staan op hun agenda – NRC
Na vertrek Chinese panda’s „blijft een leegte achter” in Washington – NRC
Biden and Xi are set to announce a deal for China to crack down on the manufacture and export of fentanyl – Bloomberg
Ook bronnen in FT.
China may end a long commercial freeze on Boeing’s 737 Max aircraft – Bloomberg
Xi-Biden summit: China and US pledge to revive academic ties in confidence-building push – SCMP
The US has given a large number of Chinese reporters permission to enter the country to cover the first meeting between presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in a year – Bloomberg
The path to a meeting of President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping was strewn with diplomatic slights and gamesmanship, according to interviews with current and former officials on both sides – WSJ: ‘Xi is looking to buy time to build up China’s economic and military resilience to ultimately prevail in the great-power competition. The Chinese leader was taken aback by the West’s backlash to his alignment with Russia in the midst of its war on Ukraine and was surprised at how quickly the U.S. has strengthened alliances against Beijing. Now a tactical pause serves China’s interest.’
Ik zie de Chinese toenadering van de afgelopen tijd in hetzelfde licht als de Wall Street Journal. Koester geen illusies:
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 enlists Flying Tigers as China’s propagandists seek warmer tone on US – FT: ‘the warmer message did not signal a change in the Communist party’s long-running narrative of China’s inevitable rise and the US’s decline.’
Behind public assurances, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 has spread grim views on the US – The New York Times: ‘collections of speeches that Mr. Xi made to the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party officials, published by the military for internal study by senior officers, and seen and corroborated by The New York Times.’
As Xi heads to San Francisco, Chinese propaganda embraces America – The New York Times: ‘Even the most flowery Chinese articles have drawn distinctions between warm ties between American and Chinese people, and their governments’
Xiplomacy: Cooperation a shared aspiration of Chinese and American people – Xinhua
Dat onderscheid tussen regering en ‘verstandige’ mensen is juist typisch de leninistische verenigd front-strategie.
How Chinese aggression is increasing the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait – The Washington Post: ‘China is being deliberately unpredictable and incommunicative, analysts say, to keep the U.S. military off guard’
Xi-Biden summit: why the US push for military guard rails with China could be a near miss – SCMP: ‘“The Chinese basically view all of these crisis management mechanisms as ways for the United States to constrain Chinese actions,” said Zachary Cooper’
Xinhua Commentary: Don’t squander chance to restore China-US ties – Xinhua: ‘it is necessary to remind the U.S. side to learn from the past mistakes that have frayed bilateral relations.’
‘First and foremost, the United States must be sincere.’ ‘China has put in a lot of effort […]. Now, it is the United States' responsibility to reciprocate.’
‘Secondly, the U.S. leadership needs to exercise a more rational and clear-eyed assessment of China-U.S. ties.’ ‘China’s development is inevitable’
De boodschap: wij hebben ons best gedaan om welwillend te zijn, nu is het aan de Verenigde Staten om onze uitgestoken hand, onze internationale vrienden en de ‘redelijke’ Amerikaanse stemmen die we hebben gemobiliseerd te volgen en je verzet op te geven.
President Joe Biden said ahead of his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that the US was interested in helping China’s struggling economy — but not at the expense of American intellectual property – Bloomberg
In veiled swipe at China, Blinken tells APEC US believes in free region – Reuters
Biden seeks to calm relationship with Xi amid global crises – POLITICO
Tricky politics on menu for China’s Xi at US business dinner – Reuters: ‘the pricey dinner, up to $40,000 for a table of eight, according to one notice for the event, is routine by standards for past Chinese presidential visits.’
De VS hebben ook binnenlandse en buitenlandse redenen om de kalmte op te zoeken.
US Commerce chief Raimondo to meet Chinese counterpart Wáng Wéntāo 王文涛 during APEC – Reuters
Joe Biden must use summit with China to ease Taiwan’s fears – Charles K.S. Wu, Fang-Yu Chen, Yao-Yuan Yeh, and Austin Horng-En Wang for The National Interest: ‘Our research has shown that U.S. reassurances such as high-level visits and verbal commitments could restore public confidence in the United States.’
Taiwanese reporters harassed outside Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s hotel at APEC forum – Focus Taiwan
Het is de realiteit, dat bij bezoeken van Xi er altijd enkele onbekende Chinese mannen in pak verschijnen die niet helemaal respectvol omgaan met de soevereiniteit van het gastland.
Taiwan working on one-on-one Biden meeting for its representative at APEC summit Morris Chang 張忠謀 – Reuters
Taiwan’s APEC bilateral talks to focus on CPTPP bid, says top trade negotiator – Focus Taiwan
Tech War 💽💥
ASML steeds verder meegesleept in chipstrijd tussen VS en China – NOS: „De verwachting is dat over de nieuwste stap de komende tijd op diplomatiek niveau tussen Washington en Den Haag gesprekken gevoerd gaan worden.” 🇳🇱
China’s chipmaking equipment imports surge 93% despite curbs – Nikkei Asia: ‘China’s imports of this gear from the Netherlands swelled more than sixfold’
China receives US equipment to make advanced chips despite new rules, congressional report says – Reuters
Huawei has a big problem with the popular Mate 60 5G smartphones: there’s not enough supply to meet growing demand – [Alibaba-owned, Hong Kong-based] SCMP: ‘Patel said he believed that the supply shortages affecting Huawei’s Mate 60 series reflect the huge demand for its first 5G smartphones in more than two years, rather than a sign that yields deficiency at SMIC has become a bottleneck in terms of ramping-up production of these handsets.’
Taiwan’s ITRI signs to MOU to join EU 6G research project – Focus Taiwan
National Taiwan University plans to recruit 50-60 foreign students a year for semiconductor programme – Focus Taiwan
Key iPhone assembler Foxconn (Hon Hai 鴻海) reports stronger-than-expected profit, suggesting demand for Apple’s signature devices proved better than feared – Bloomberg: ‘warned revenue will decline for the third straight quarter’
Nepal says it will ban TikTok, citing effect on ‘social harmony’ – AFP
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Blinde vlek in de campagne: is Nederland weerbaar genoeg om deze gevaarlijke tijd te trotseren? – Kustaw Bessems in de Volkskrant 🇳🇱
NATO aims to ‘discourage’ China on Taiwan, official says – Nikkei Asia: ‘NATO has no ambitions to become a regional military alliance in the Indo-Pacific region’
Number of Americans studying in mainland China falls sharply, but Chinese students still flock to US – SCMP
As Biden and Xi prepare to meet at the Asia-Pacific summit, US growth is humming while China struggles with a property slump and local government debts – WSJ
As China’s economic momentum falters, it strives to maintain hold on global influence and identity – SCMP: ‘But confidence is a linchpin of markets and geopolitics, and an entrenched narrative that a country has peaked can greatly affect investor behaviour, leverage and the degree to which it is courted and feared, analysts said.’
China, Russia, Iran and the prospect of American retreat – Gideon Rachman for FT
Ruling LDP vice president Asō Tarō 麻生太郎 calls for Japan-US-Australia cooperation over China – Jiji Press: ‘He proposed adding Japan to the AUKUS framework among the United States, Britain and Australia to make it “JAUKUS.”’
US and Indonesia vow to elevate ties amid China’s rise – Kyodo News
Chinese-funded Africa CDC laboratory opens in Ethiopia as Beijing looks to health diplomacy to boost influence – SCMP
Vernoemd naar de vroegtwintigste-eeuwse internationale voorvechter van de volksgezondheid dr. Wu Lien-teh 伍連德, iemand van Chinese komaf die eigenlijk uit Brits Malaya kwam.
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Een roestend Filipijns schip moet China op afstand houden – NRC
Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin says [rather: now claims] there was no plan to invite Chinese police officers to patrol local tourist destinations, seeking to clear the air after comments by the country’s tourism authority – Bloomberg
No Chinese cops on Thai streets, says police chief – Bangkok Post
Chinese state security chief Chén Yīxīn 陈一新 wraps up 10-day tour of Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam – SCMP
Chinese navy’s suspected new overseas base in Cambodia now even larger – Naval News: ‘There is clear evidence of a new dry dock being constructed.’
Iran says it hopes to work with China to de-escalate Israel-Gaza war – SCMP
China economie
Exclusive: China plans to inject CN¥1 trillion [€128b] of low cost financing for housing programs to shore up its struggling property market – Bloomberg
China’s new real estate model to be built on ‘3 major projects’, with cheaper property for urban migrants and young adults – SCMP: ‘building affordable housing, renovating urban villages and constructing emergency public facilities.’
China bank stocks face crisis of confidence over bad debt risk – Nikkei Asia
Chinese graduates hold off career dreams, take temporary government jobs – Reuters
Inside Wall Street’s scramble after ICBC 工行 hack – Reuters
China milieu
CO2-uitstoot van Spotify en BP gecompenseerd met katoenresten uit Xinjiang door Zwitserse klimaatadviseur South Pole – Follow The Money
Carbon credits at risk of link to Uyghur forced labour bought by BP and Spotify – The Guardian: ‘sourced from the Bachu carbon project, which was developed by South Pole, the world’s largest carbon consultancy.’
China’s carbon emissions set for structural decline from next year – The Guardian
China binnenland
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s anti-graft drive is on track to ensnare a record number of top officials this year, showing the Chinese leader still appears wary of possible threats to his power – Bloomberg: ‘targeted a record number of retired senior officials this year, a departure from the norm’
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Xi Jinping is unlikely to have the capability to conduct a successful amphibious invasion of Taiwan by 2027, top Taiwanese security official Wellington Koo 顧立雄 says, casting doubts on China's military modernisation plans – Bloomberg
Taiwan National Security Council secretary-general Wellington Koo 顧立雄 says US using ‘all possible ways’ to strengthen it against China – FT
顧立雄而不是顧維鈞。
KMT seeks to attack Tsai administration over US and Chinese vessels passing near Itu Aba/Taiping Island – New Bloom
US and Chinese warships did not enter Itu Aba/Taiping Island waters, says Taiwanese coast guard – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan outlines CPTPP accession plan for 2024 ‘window of opportunity’ – Focus Taiwan
Annual conference of cross-Strait CEO Summit opens in Nanjing – Xinhua: ‘the mainland was, is, and will remain the best option for Taiwan compatriots and businesses’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 sends congratulatory letter to annual conference of cross-Strait entrepreneurs summit – Xinhua: ‘Xi called on entrepreneurs on both sides to safeguard the overall interests of the Chinese nation, […], in an effort to promote […] the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.’
Xi zelf bombardeert dus Taiwanese zakenmensen die actief zijn in China tot voetsoldaten van de vereniging.
Taiwan’s ex-premier Liu Chao-shiuan 劉兆玄 (KMT) calls for ECFA to be strengthened at Nanjing summit – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan verkiezingen
KMT and TPP agree to use polls to determine joint presidential ticket – Focus Taiwan: ‘What remains to be determined is the content and rules of the polling’
KMT and TPP set to have second ‘party-to-party’ talk on January 13 elections – Focus Taiwan: ‘The meeting will take place at the Ma Ying-jeou Foundation in Taipei, with former President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the KMT invited to participate as a witness’
Former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 joins push to form joint opposition ticket in next year’s presidential election – SCMP
Gaat het de elite-Vastelanders en de conservatieve Chinese nationalisten lukken om hun eigen – te benshengren/Taiwanese – Hou Yu-ih te dwingen zijn plaats af te staan aan de misschien makkelijker plooibare populist Ko Wen-je?
Foxconn (Hon Hai 鴻海) founder Terry Gou 郭台銘 qualifies to run for Taiwan president – Reuters: ‘had to gather around 300,000 voter signatures by Nov. 2 to qualify as an independent candidate, according election regulations. The election commission said he got more than 900,000 valid signatures.’
Foxconn (Hon Hai 鴻海) plans for any China fallout from founder’s presidential bid in Taiwan – FT
China’s probe into Foxconn ‘political’, Taiwan security chief Wellington Koo 顧立雄 says – Al Jazeera: ‘“Based on our observations, China does not want Terry Gou to split votes [within the pro-Beijing camp],” he said.’
KMT’s Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 pledges to ban use of gas-powered vehicles by 2045 – Focus Taiwan
China threatens to end ECFA trade agreement ahead of Taiwanese elections – New Bloom: ‘likely hoping to induce the public to vote for the KMT by threatening to suspend ECFA’
Taiwan binnenland
Taiwan steps up climate leadership with ambitious reforms – Nikkei Asia