De Chinese Wouden, woensdag 10 juli: Orbán in China, NAVO-top
China pakt groots uit met het bezoek van ‘EU-voorzitter’ Hongarije aan Peking om te praten over de oorlog tussen Oekraïne en Rusland. Nadat hij eerder in Kyiv en Moskou was, is premier Orbán nu op bezoek bij Xi Jinping voor ‘Peace Mission 3.0’. De woedende reacties in Brussel onderstreept dat het misleidend is om te doen alsof hij daar is namens Europa.
Het buitenland- en veiligheidsbeleid van de Europese Unie is in handen van de voorzitter van de Europese Raad (nog: Charles Michel) en de hoge vertegenwoordiger voor het buitenlandbeleid (nog: Josep Borrell). De Europese Raad is de plek waar de regeringsleiders als een soort Politburo de grote lijnen van de EU uiteenzetten. Daarnaast neemt Ursula von der Leyen ook nog een de facto buitenlandrol als voorzitter van de Europese Commissie, de regering van de Unie.
Hongarije is roulerend voorzitter van de Raad van de Europese Unie (afgekort: Raad). Hierin komen ministers van de relevante vakgebieden bijeen om als soort van senaat naast het Europees Parlement te stemmen over wetsvoorstellen. Dit geeft het voorzittende land geen formele externe rol. Maar het komt Orbán, Poetin en Xi wel goed uit om te doen alsof. Daarom heeft Boedapest aan het begin van de zes maanden voor Hongarije op 1 juli deze ‘vredesmissie’ gelanceerd.
Directeur-generaal Europese zaken van het Chinese BZ Wang Lutong ontkent op Twitter de recente vaststelling van EU-ambassadeur Toledo dat Peking betere betrekkingen tussen China en Europa moeilijk maakt. Wang zegt dat het de taak van diplomaten is om oplossingen te vinden als er uitdagingen zijn i.p.v. ‘blame game’ te spelen. Maar Peking maakt het er toch echt zelf naar. Met de militaire anti-terrorisme oefeningen in Belarus aan de Poolse grens en het ontvangst van Orbán spant Peking opzichtig samen met de krachten die de Europese eenheid over Oekraïne willen ondermijnen.
De NAVO-top in Washington is een goed voorbeeld van de consequenties van de geopolitieke ontwikkelingen waar Xi Jinpings China aan meewerkt. Japan, Zuid-Korea, Australië en Nieuw-Zeeland komen praten. Met veel kabaal beklagen mensen zich daarom over de ‘uitbreiding’ van de NAVO naar de Indo-Pacific. Maar die gaan misschien wat te snel voorbij aan wat de NAVO is. Het is een militaire bijstandsorganisatie gebaseerd op de plicht elkaar te helpen als er oorlog uitbreekt. Dat wordt helemaal niet uitgebreid naar Azië.
De NAVO intensiveert wél contacten met de Indo-Pacific. Dat is logisch. Japan is ook een buurland van Rusland met territoriaal dispuut en niet blij dat de Chinese en Russische marines samen rondjes varen rond de Japanse eilanden. Noord-Korea levert wapens aan Rusland voor de oorlog in Oekraïne en krijgt daar dingen voor terug die Zuid-Korea ongerust maken. Het Westen is niet blij met leveranties van China aan Rusland en Pekings diplomatieke rugdekking voor Moskou in internationale organisaties zoals de FAO. Voor de NAVO zelf komt daar nog bij dat de afhankelijkheid van de Amerikaanse strijdkrachten het bondgenootschap een belang geeft in (het uitblijven van) conflict in de Indo-Pacific waarbij de VS betrokken zouden zijn (en aanvullende contacten voor het geval Trump wint). Je kunt soebatten over de wenselijke aard en diepgang van de NAVO-contacten met de Indo-Pacific, maar enige interactie lijkt mij logisch.
Zoals de Japanse premier Kishida zei, de conflicten in de Euro-Atlantische regio en de Indo-Pacifische regio raken steeds meer met elkaar verklonken. Een verslaggever van Bloomberg vroeg het Chinese ministerie van buitenlandse zaken bij de dagelijkse persconferentie terecht waarom Peking zich wel uitspreekt tegen ‘Koude Oorlog-denken’ als het om de NAVO gaat, maar niet als Rusland en Noord-Korea hun samenwerking uit de Koude Oorlog weer nieuw leven in blaast. Peking oogst wat het zaait.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
China’s commerce ministry refutes [i.e. denies] alleged reluctance to consult with EU on EV tariffs – Xinhua: ‘the remarks by a European Union (EU) official [i.e. Toledo], suggesting that China had not sought consultations on electric vehicle (EV) tariffs until recently despite the EU’s attempts to engage for months, were “seriously inconsistent with the facts.”’ ‘China has been expressing strong opposition on bilateral and multilateral occasions’ 🇪🇺
‘Can’t agree to Amb Jorge Toledo’s assessment of #China-#Europe ties. President Xi’s European trip was a great success. For the whole year, there will be 10+ #European leaders visiting China. Thanks to visa-free policy, European visitors are coming to China in large numbers.’ ‘If there are difficulties in #China-#EU relations as he indicated, it’s diplomats’ job to find ways to solve problems, not resorting to a blame game. […]’ – 王鲁彤 Wang Lutong, Twitter 🇪🇺
Toledo legt uit hoe de EU aankijkt tegen de betrekkingen met China; het antwoord van Peking is dat China zelf beter weet wat Europa vindt.
Chinese and Maltese officials vow to deepen cooperation – Xinhua: ‘Lu Kang, deputy head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, met respectively with Malta’s Foreign Minister Ian Borg, Nationalist Party leader Bernard Grech, Labour Party President Ramona Attard, and representatives from think tanks, local authorities and friendly locals.’
‘Lu, who led a CPC delegation to pay a visit to Malta from Sunday to Tuesday at the invitation of the Labour Party of Malta, also briefed the Maltese side on the opportunities brought to the world by China’s further comprehensive deepening of reforms and the advancement of Chinese modernization.’ 🇲🇹
Dit is de rol van de CCP International Department: contact op partijniveau en ‘briefings’ die het Chinese politieke systeem niet opdringen zoals die hypocriete westerlingen doen met hun mensenrechten, maar slechts ‘uitleggen’. Het ID is in de afgelopen jaren erg toegenomen in prominentie.
oorlog in Oekraïne
Chinese envoy to UN calls on parties to Ukraine conflict to exercise rationality and restraint – Xinhua: ‘Noting that there are no winners in conflict and confrontation, and military means will not bring lasting peace’ 🇺🇦🇷🇺
Chinese and Belarusian foreign ministers hold talks in Beijing – Xinhua: ‘The two sides also exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis. Ryzhenkov spoke highly of the six-point consensus jointly put forward by China and Brazil. Wang said that the top priority is to follow the three principles of no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting, and no fanning of the flames by any party, so as to ease and cool down the crisis and create conditions for restarting dialogue.’ 🇧🇾
China and Belarus start joint military drills near Polish border – Reuters: ‘Belarus allowed Russia to use its territory as one of the launchpads for Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.’
‘In an unrelated post on Telegram, the Belarusian defence ministry said on Monday that the size of NATO forces on the border with Belarus is rapidly growing, which leads to increased tension in the region.’ 🇧🇾
Russia’s Nornickel in talks with China Copper to move smelting plant to China, sources say – Reuters: ‘it would mark Russia's first uprooting of a domestic plant since the U.S. and Britain banned metal exchanges from accepting new aluminium, copper and nickel produced by Russia.’ 🇷🇺
Orbán in China 🇭🇺🇨🇳
Na Rusland en Oekraïne bezoekt Viktor Orbán nu ook China – NRC: „Op X deelt de Hongaar twee foto’s van het bezoek, waarbij hij schrijft ‘peace mission 3.0’. Daarmee doelt de premier op twee recentere bezoeken aan Rusland en Oekraïne als onderdeel van een ‘vredesmissie’.” 🇭🇺
Orbán praises Trump as ‘the man of peace,’ says Biden will likely lose election – POLITICO: ‘Orbán contrasted U.S. policy unfavorably with what he described as a credible “peace plan” from China.’ 🇭🇺
Xi and Orbán exchange in-depth views on Ukraine crisis [sic] – Xinhua: ‘Xi stressed that an early ceasefire and a political settlement are in the interests of all parties, saying that the priority is to cool down the situation through observing the three principles of no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting, and no fanning by any party over the flames.’ 🇭🇺🇺🇦
Russia and China ‘peace missions’ prompt EU members to seek ways to punish Hungary – SCMP: ‘At every stop on Orban’s tour, fury has spread like wildfire through the Belgian capital.’ 🇪🇺
EU officials fume over Orbán’s renegade diplomatic mission to see Putin – POLITICO Europe: ‘a first sign that EU officials could move from public condemnations alone to concrete action to restrain Budapest’s presidency.’ 🇪🇺
„Orbán misbruikt het voorzitterschap en maakt de EU belachelijk” – BNR 🇪🇺
Commentaar: Voorkom dat Boedapest nog langer de EU te kijk zet – FD 🇪🇺
Orbán parrots Putin’s lines on Ukraine in leaked letter to EU chief – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
‘#China is a key power in creating the conditions for #peace in the #RussiaUkraineWar. This is why I came to meet with President Xi in Beijing, just two months after his official visit to Budapest. #HU24EU #peacemission’ – Orbán Viktor, Twitter 🇭🇺
‘President Xi Jinping just met with Hungarian @PM_ViktorOrban . President Xi congratulated Hungary on assuming the EU presidency and noted the strategic and global influence of China-EU relations. […]’ – Hua Chunying 华春莹, Twitter 🇭🇺🇪🇺
Elektrische auto’s 🚗⚡️
Does Brussels plan to charge Chinese batteries? – FT Alphaville: ‘To justify the claim that the batteries and lithium is being provided below cost, the [European] Commission argues — at great length — that battery suppliers such as CATL function, in practice, as a public body managed and controlled by the Chinese state’ 🇪🇺
EU tariffs hit growth in China’s electric car exports, industry body official says – Reuters 🇪🇺
Chinese autoproducent BYD 比亚迪 omzeilt nieuwe EU-heffingen door fabriek in Turkije te bouwen – de Volkskrant 🇹🇷
China scientists’ low-cost solid-state battery could be EV industry breakthrough – SCMP
Honda 本田 to end vehicle production at one of its Thai auto plants – Reuters 🇯🇵🇹🇭
An easy solution to the EU-China tariff dispute – Yao Yang for Project Syndicate 🇪🇺
Tech War 💽💥
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet says world needs the legacy chips China is producing, Handelsblatt reports – Reuters: ‘as the European Commission has begun surveying firms including ASML for their views on Chinese firms’ investments in so-called “legacy” chips, an important source of revenue for ASML.’
ASML-Chef im Interview: „China hinkt bei den Chips zehn Jahre hinterher“ – Handelsblatt: „In China würden Chips produziert, die im Westen dringend benötigt würden, sagt Fouquet im Gespräch mit dem Handelsblatt.“
„Einzelne Länder mögen sagen: ,Uns gefällt nicht, was China bei den Chips macht.‘ Wir empfehlen den Regierungen dann, eigene Werke aufzubauen. Denn es geht nicht, China die Fertigung zu erschweren und selbst keine Alternativen zu schaffen.“
Gridlock in China: huge spending on network to cope with green energy surge – FT: ‘China’s electricity grid is undergoing an unparalleled investment of more than $800bn in the next six years to overcome strains’
China’s government released a draft regulation to limit expansions in its world-leading solar industry – Bloomberg: ‘as domestic companies struggle with losses amid oversupply and fierce competition.’
China wil eigen productie zonnepanelen verminderen om ‘bloedbad’ in de branche te beperken – NRC
Singapore and Europe to deepen tech cooperation for chips and AI – The Straits Times 🇪🇺🇸🇬
China AI leader iFlytek 科大讯飞 dips into red under ‘ultimate’ US pressure – Nikkei Asia
Japan and Germany to create economic security framework; discussions come as Germany tries to lower excessive economic reliance on China – The Yomiuri Shimbun: ‘will reach an agreement on the framework when Kishida visits Germany on Friday.’ 🇯🇵🇩🇪
Japan relies on China, other single import partners for 40% of goods – Nikkei Asia: ‘China supplied more than 50% of imports in value terms for 1,406 specific items, over 30% of the roughly 4,300 products studied’ 🇯🇵
Chinese developers scramble as OpenAI blocks access in China – The Guardian
China’s AI startups race for customers as titans like Alibaba 阿里巴巴 cut prices – Nikkei Asia
Gen AI: Too much spend, too little benefit? – Goldman Sachs
Pop Culture – Edward Zitron
Ik ben zelf vanaf het begin erg sceptisch geweest over Generatieve Kunstmatige ‘Intelligentie’. Maar probeer je studenten er maar eens vanaf te houden…
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
South Korea may buy drones from Poland to expand defence ties, report says – Reuters: ‘particularly aerial attack vehicles used effectively in Ukraine’ 🇰🇷🇵🇱
Japan’s Justice Ministry to help Ukraine upgrade its legal system; Move hopes to facilitate post-war entry of Japanese companies and investment – The Yomiuri Shimbun: ‘Meanwhile, the ministry is considering also helping enhance legal systems in Pacific island nations.’ 🇯🇵
Japan must strengthen NATO ties to safeguard global peace, PM Kishida says – Reuters: ‘“The securities of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific are inseparable, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its deepened military cooperation with North Korea are strong reminders of that,” Kishida said.’ 🇯🇵
Nato seeks to expand partnerships with Indo-Pacific states, US official says – SCMP 🇺🇸
Europeans use Nato summit to build contacts with affiliates of Donald Trump – FT 🇪🇺
NATO should not use China to justify its attempt to disrupt regional dynamics, foreign ministry spokesperson says – Xinhua: ‘Lin said as a vestige of the Cold War and the world’s biggest military bloc, NATO claims itself to be a regional defensive alliance on the one hand, but on the other hand keeps reaching beyond its boundary, expanding its mandate, stoking confrontation and acting like a bully on the world stage.
“NATO’s so-called security is more often than not built on others’ insecurity, and what it does puts the world and regions at high security risk,” said Lin.’
Let op deze formulering, want Peking zegt dat de ‘Oekraïne-crisis’ ontstaan is omdat de veiligheidsbelangen van anderen niet gerespecteerd werden. M.a.w., hier herhaalt China het Russische excuus voor de oorlog met Oekraïne.
‘#NATOSummit opens in #Washington today. As a Cold War legacy, @NATO claims itself as a regional defensive alliance on the one hand, and is considering a #China strategy on the other, breaching its boundary and stoking confrontation. This is a real threat to global security.’ – 王鲁彤 Wang Lutong, Twitter
Elite North Korea military trainees visit Russia amid deepening ties – Reuters 🇰🇵🇷🇺
Two Russian warships sent on training mission to Asia-Pacific waters, Interfax reports – Reuters 🇷🇺
India’s Narendra Modi visits Vladimir Putin to strengthen ties in hedge against China – FT: ‘“India wants to give Russia room for manoeuvre,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “They might not have the levers to pull Russia away from China, but they want to give it as many opportunities as they can to stop them from putting all their eggs in the Chinese basket.”’ 🇮🇳🇷🇺
US Navy visits former base in Vietnam’s strategic Cam Ranh Bay – Nikkei Asia: ‘U.S. vessels previously paid port calls at Cam Ranh Bay in 2016 and 2017.’ 🇻🇳🇺🇸
US and Australia commit to better Pacific banking as China influence grows – Reuters 🇺🇸🇦🇺
US law firms hasten retreat from mainland China – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Australia sounds warning over state-backed Chinese hackers – AFP: ‘The advisory note was co-authored with input from the United States, the UK, Germany, Japan, South Korea and other international partners.’ 🇦🇺
APT40 Advisory: PRC MSS tradecraft in action – Australian Signals Directorate 🇦🇺
Chinese man in Japan arrested for alleged graffiti at Yasukuni shrine – Kyodo News: ‘Tokyo police’s Public Security Bureau also issued arrest warrants for two other Chinese nationals, the sources said.’ 🇯🇵
Japan scrambles fighters in response to Chinese TB-001 drone near Okinawa – The Yomiuri Shimbun: ‘This is the sixth time since the start of this year that the ministry has announced movements made by Chinese unmanned military aircraft.’ 🇯🇵
Chinese ships sail in Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands contiguous zone on 200 days, setting new record for consecutive days of entry – The Yomiuri Shimbun 🇯🇵
US seeks security review of land buys near more military bases: Chinese-owned property near missile base received divestment order in May – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
Chinese student pleads guilty to violating US espionage act – Nikkei Asia: ‘for taking photographs of U.S. military infrastructure using a drone.’ 🇺🇸
US-China ties may have hit a wall since Xi-Biden summit, noted Chinese commentator Da Wei warns – SCMP 🇺🇸
Tough-on-China bills eyed for passage before 2024 election, US House Speaker Mike Johnson says – SCMP 🇺🇸
Philippines rejects China’s accusation of environmental damage from grounded warship on Second Thomas Shoal in South China Sea – Reuters: ‘A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies last year found China’s construction activity buried more than 4,600 acres (1,861 acres) of reef.’ 🇵🇭
China filling huge arms order placed by Myanmar junta – The Irrawaddy: ‘Sources familiar with the matter based in Naypyitaw and on the Thai-Myanmar border said Beijing is in the process of shipping arms purchased by the regime.’ 🇲🇲
India races to build power plants in northeastern Himalayan state of Arunachal Pradesh claimed by China – Reuters 🇮🇳
Sri Lanka to wrap up bond talks soon, seek to balance India and China ties – Reuters 🇱🇰
Xi says China ready to promote comprehensive strategic partnership for a new era with Solomon Islands – Xinhua 🇸🇧
Chinese defence minister meets Brazilian army commander in Beijing – Xinhua 🇧🇷
China economie
Lay-offs by China’s top firms in key industries show unemployment biting through economic turmoil – SCMP: ‘A Post review of 23 annual reports from leading Chinese firms found that more than half downsized last year’
China’s gig workers becoming new normal, but ‘inevitable trend’ comes with a burden – SCMP: ‘The number of gig workers stood at around 200 million over the past three years, representing about 23 per cent of China’s working population, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.’
Deutsche Bank sees rosy future in helping multinationals tap Chinese market – Caixin Global 🇩🇪
China’s Guangzhou R&F Properties 富力地产 faces liquidation petition in Hong Kong – Reuters
Chinese procuratorates stress avoiding excessive penalties for business violations – Xinhua: ‘published a batch of typical cases concerning procuratorial supervision aimed at protecting legitimate rights and interests of enterprises’
Eerder waren er al zorgen over armlastige lokale overheden die belastingachterstanden van bedrijven gingen onderzoeken tot decennia terug. Nu waarschuwing tegen te hoge boetes.
China must unblock internal circulation, No 4 official says in warning of weak domestic demand – SCMP
China’s top political advisor Wáng Hùníng 王沪宁 stresses research on boosting domestic economic cycle – Xinhua: ‘and building consensus on advancing Chinese modernization.’
China binnenland
Floods move to China’s drought-hit farmland as Dongting Lake wall repair holds – SCMP
Deadly tornado kills 5, injures 88 in China’s eastern Shandong province – SCMP
China state media slams Sinograin 中储粮 over alleged use of fuel tankers to transport cooking oil – Reuters
China launches high-level probe after paper says fuel tankers used to carry cooking oil – SCMP
China’s state-owned defence firms pledge to tackle corruption – SCMP: ‘after former defence minister Li Shangfu was accused of “polluting the equipment sector”.’
Hong Kong
Hong Kong is winning back wealthy Chinese by rolling out the red carpet for the rich while rival Singapore scrutinises foreign money – Bloomberg 🇸🇬
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
[China]’s Taiwan affairs official Sòng Tāo 宋涛 meets former KMT chairperson Hung Hsiu-chu 洪秀柱 – Xinhua: ‘Hung […] urg[ed] [young people on both sides] to join hands to oppose “Taiwan independence” and promote national reunification and rejuvenation.’ 🇨🇳
Cross-Strait youth development forum opens in Hangzhou – Xinhua: ‘Former chairperson of the Chinese Kuomintang party Hung Hsiu-chu said at the opening ceremony that national reunification is a shared aspiration of all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation and also an unstoppable trend of history.’ 🇨🇳
Chinese fishing boat and crew released after paying fine for poaching – Focus Taiwan: ‘The matter was resolved within half a month, a move which has been widely viewed as a gesture of good faith toward Beijing. Judging from the past practices, the CGA usually spends more than a month to deal with such issues.’ 🇨🇳
China prolonging fishing crew detention due to tensions, scholar says – Focus Taiwan: ‘In [previous cases, […] ships were released after paying fines and returned to Penghu within two days after being seized, according to the CGA. However, as of Tuesday evening, Da Jin Man No. 88 and its five crew members have been detained for one week, and it is not known when they may be released.’ 🇨🇳
China detaining and interrogating more Taiwanese since new laws, National Security Bureau says – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Air Force issues Chinese-English bilingual radio warning to PLA planes – Focus Taiwan: ‘Previously Taiwan’s Air Force only used Mandarin Chinese when intercepting PLA aircraft’ 🇨🇳
Navy petty officer indicted for leaking intelligence to China – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
The few can beat the many, Taiwan president says ahead of annual war games – Reuters
Twelve locations selected for Han Kuang exercises – Taipei Times
2024 Wanan air defence drill to be held July 22 to 25 – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan makes public new rules of engagement, to be tested in Han Kuang drills – Focus Taiwan: ‘the rules made public for the first time at Tuesday’s briefing’
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Physical fights erupt in Legislature ahead of review of amendments to recall law – Focus Taiwan: ‘The occupation of the podium by DPP lawmakers sparked dismay from their KMT counterparts, leading to fights between lawmakers from the two parties, with DPP Legislator Lin Chu-yin (林楚茵) screaming that her chin was bleeding after she said she was slapped in the face by KMT lawmaker Wang Hung-wei (王鴻薇).’
Bail for former Taoyuan mayor Cheng Wen-tsan 鄭文燦 (DPP) overturned by High Court – Focus Taiwan
Ex-vice premier Cheng Wen-tsan 鄭文燦 (DPP) granted bail again – Taipei Times
Donovan’s Deep Dives: Jostling for power in 2026 elections has already begun, and three races just got shook up – Courtney Donovan Smith for Taipei Times: ‘[Cheng Wen-tsan convicted] would cement Lai as by far the most powerful figure within the New Tide faction as well.’
Police launch manhunt for Tainan gun attack suspect – Focus Taiwan: ‘searching for an unidentified gunman who shot dead Lin Shih-chieh (林士傑), chairman of the Tainan City Fisherman’s Association, in front of his home’
Premier orders authorities to step up efforts in Tainan murder case – Focus Taiwan: ‘Lin was the father of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Tainan City Councilor Lin Yi-ting’
Over 10,000 Employment Gold Cards issued, President Lai says – Taipei Times