De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 8 november: overwinning Trump
Sorry, jullie zijn er vast zat van. Ik ga volgende week weer Trump-minderen. Maar we zijn nu in een historische overgangsperiode. Een periode die niet alleen veel zal vragen van Europa, maar ook voor Peking een bevestiging is voor veel overtuigingen over de richting van de geschiedenis.
Zoals Kevin Rudd uitlegt in zijn excellente nieuwe boek On Xi Jinping, onderschrijft het leiderschap onder president Xi een marxistisch-leninistische kijk op de verloop van de wereldgeschiedenis. Men denkt in termen van historische krachten. Xi legitimeert zijn assertieve diplomatie op basis van deze ‘wetten’.
De toegenomen kracht van China en de structurele neergang van het Westen zijn de redenen waarom Xi in 2023 bij vertrek na een staatsbezoek aan Rusland tegen Poetin zei, dat de wereld zich bevindt in een periode van ongekende veranderingen (百年未有之大变局) die zij samen aansturen. De onmacht van de constructieve krachten in de VS en elders zal hem alleen maar bevestigen in zijn geloof dat ‘het Oosten [d.w.z. China] komt op, het Westen gaat neer’ (东升西降).
De ‘ongekende veranderingen’ bestaan o.a. uit die structurele verschuiving. De geschriften van Xi maken duidelijk dat de onwil van de Verenigde Staten om de opkomt van China te accepteren volgens hem de belangrijkste tegenstelling van het moment is. Het maoïsme stelt dat een tegenstelling in intensiteit toeneemt wanneer de oplossing nadert.
De afkeer van Trump in Peking was oprecht. Dat was volgens mij niet alleen vanwege zijn onvoorspelbaarheid, maar ook omdat hij symbolisch erg destructief was. Biden mag dan structureel meer gedaan hebben om de VS te versterken tegen China en de halfgeleiderindustrie te raken, het was onder Trump dat we harde retorische aanvallen op China, uitgesproken steun voor Taiwan en pijnlijk zichtbare invoerheffingen zagen.
Dat is juist een probleem voor de CCP. Onderschat niet de nationalistische trots, propagandabelangen en de waarde die (geveinsde) eenheid heeft voor de communistische partij. Je kunt Peking achter de schermen veel meer maken, zolang je publiekelijk maar meepraat. Biden kon dat ietsje beter. Bij Trumps regering zal dat eerder het omgekeerde zijn.
De handelsoorlog die Trump ontketende, had ook zijn positieve kanten voor de agenda van Xi Jinping. De uitvoering was relatief incompetent en incompleet, terwijl Xi het kon gebruiken om de prioriteit van nationale veiligheid over economische groei door te drukken tegen interne tegenstand. Op z’n xiïstisch: „een periode waarin strategische kansen naast risico’s en uitdagingen bestaan” (战略机遇和风险挑战并存的时期).
Want ondertussen verkleint Trump de afschrikkende macht van de VS tegen Chinese avonturen door het land te verzwakken. Dit wordt gecombineerd met de terugkeer van de symbolische bliksem en donder waar Peking zo gevoelig voor is. Afgezien van de inhoud van de komende maatregelen, gaan we toe naar meer instabiliteit en groter risico op ongelukken. Dat heeft ook gevolgen voor Europa.
De NAVO moet nu eerst gered worden. Het is iedereen duidelijk, dat Europa nu nóg meer dan ooit zelf in staat moet zijn de eigen verdediging ter hand te kunnen nemen. Maar dit is een lang en moeilijk proces. Tot die tijd is de keuze tussen meer toegeven aan Rusland of meer toegeven aan de VS. De waarschijnlijk onvermijdelijke keuze voor het laatste betekent ook, dat de druk zal groeien om met Washington mee te gaan tegen China.
De Brusselse ambtenaren die zich aan het voorbereiden waren op een overwinning door Trump, hoorden volgens SCMP al van zijn campagne dat, in ruil voor beweging op het Europese verlanglijstje wat betreft handel en Oekraïne, er hardere maatregelen tegen China zouden moeten komen. Von der Leyen zal hier niet rouwig om zijn, maar veel Europese hoofdsteden en bedrijven zullen nog schrikken.
Amerikaanse verkiezingen 🇺🇸🗳️
EU has wish list for Trump, but support for his tough China agenda will be expected – SCMP: ‘High on their wish list will be keeping the tap open for US funds to flow to Ukraine and avoiding scything tariffs on European goods. Brussels has already been told what Trump would expect in return: EU backing for his tough agenda on China. The China demand was made clear during preliminary talks with Republican interlocutors ahead of the election’ 🇪🇺
The 2024 US elections and their implications for the EU’s China policy: Views from CEE – CHOICE 🇪🇺
Trump’s comeback no surprise for China—and this time Beijing is prepared – SCMP: ‘Speaking on condition of anonymity, Chinese officials told the Post that a mix of research and preparation was under way well before election day’
‘[A source] added that he believed Chinese officials were also looking into the prominent role that the world’s richest person – Elon Musk – had played, as well as his ties with China.’
‘According to a Chinese researcher from a top national social science research body in Beijing, over the past several months, all of the nation’s top international relations think tanks have been asked to submit papers to the Communist Party’s leadership with their best educated guesses on prospective cabinet members under both Trump and Harris, as well as their individual positions on China.’ 🇨🇳
In China, Elon Musk’s rising star raises hopes for US engagement – SCMP: ‘The prospect of Musk joining the US cabinet has raised hopes in China that there will be more engagement between Washington and Beijing’ 🇨🇳
China congratulates Trump, says it respects America’s choice – Reuters: ‘Xi’s congratulatory message to Trump was more subdued than when the latter first won election in November 2016.’ 🇨🇳
President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 sends congratulatory message to President-elect of the United States Donald J. Trump – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China: ‘Xi Jinping noted that history tells us that both countries stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation.’ 🇨🇳
China willing to promote sound and sustainable economic ties with US, commerce ministry says – Xinhua 🇨🇳
Xinhua Commentary: Keep to the right direction of China-US ties – Xinhua: ‘The world is undergoing accelerated changes unseen in a century, and the international situation is intertwined with changes and chaos.’ (当前世界百年变局深刻演进，国际形势变乱交织)
‘China’s policy toward the United States remains highly consistent and stable. It has consistently perceived and envisioned the China-U.S. relationship in the broad context of the accelerating global transformations unseen in a century.’ (始终把中美关系放在世界百年变局加速演进这个大背景下来思考和谋划)
China’s exports soar past forecast as factories front-run Trump tariff threat – Reuters 🇨🇳
Chinese exports soar as Beijing prepares for renewed trade tensions under Donald Trump – FT: ‘the bumper export figures are expected to inflame tensions between Trump’s incoming administration and Beijing’ 🇨🇳
Trump’s tariff threat puts US farm exports to China at risk – Reuters 🇨🇳
Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time – Reuters 🇨🇳
Markets are underpricing the possibility of a US-China economic war – Scott Kennedy for Foreign Policy (2024/10/31): ‘The world shouldn’t underestimate Beijing’s willingness to absorb some economic pain to achieve the strategic goal of regaining the upper hand in the relationship.’ ‘[This] time, China may very well call Trump’s bluff in the belief that he is a paper tiger. That’s because it likely would interpret sky-high tariffs, which could be combined with a more comprehensive technology boycott, as equivalent to starting an outright economic war.’ 🇺🇸
Trump’s tariff obsession is worse than before – Alan Beattie for FT: ‘we’re about to stress-test the question: just how dependent is the world trading system on the US?’ 🇺🇸
China’s yuan falls sharply as Donald Trump declares US election win – SCMP 🇨🇳
Chinese social media users hailed Donald Trump’s stunning presidential comeback, while acknowledging the Republican’s political revival likely meant more turbulence for the economy – Bloomberg 🇨🇳
Chinese scholars respond to Trump 2.0 – Beijing Channel (Xinhua Substack) 🇨🇳
After months of relative silence, Chinese state media is starting to unspool its narrative on the US presidential election, casting the vote as a ‘money burning’ display of ‘unprecedented chaos’ – Bloomberg 🇨🇳
De waarheid is een goede basis voor propaganda.
Taiwan 🇹🇼
President Lai congratulates Trump on election victory – Focus Taiwan: ‘The president also thanked the U.S. government led by President Joe Biden’ 🇹🇼
Taiwan’s president is considering calling Donald Trump after US election victory, sources say – Bloomberg: ‘Lai has no plan to arrange a congratulatory call with Trump, the Presidential Office said’ 🇹🇼
Taiwan key to ‘making America great again’, foreign minister Lin Chia-lung 林佳龍 (DPP) says – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼
Economics minister Kuo Jyh-huei 郭智輝 upbeat about Taiwan’s future despite Trump tariff threats – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼
Taipei offers to help Taiwanese firms relocate from China if Donald Trump holds true on tariffs threat – AFP 🇹🇼
For Taiwan, Trump’s ‘protection’ money may mean new and early big ticket arms deals – Reuters: ‘One former U.S. official said he assessed it was “highly likely” that Taiwan would move quickly to attempt to broker a major arms deal with the U.S. to get the Trump administration onside’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan faces pressure to boost military spending after Trump win, experts say – Focus Taiwan: ‘the potential impact on U.S.-Taiwan military relations under Trump’s leadership would depend on the foreign policy and national security officials Trump appoints.’ 🇺🇸
Taiwanese scholars divided on likelihood of US military support for Taiwan under Trump presidency – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
Taiwan zou eigenlijk op eigen initiatief de defensie moeten verbeteren, op manieren die het best passen bij de noden van het land i.p.v. de aandachtsspanne van Trump en co. De KMT-TPP meerderheid in het parlement stelt zich echter op meerdere gebieden obstructionistisch op, ook wat betreft defensie. Ik verwacht dat de oppositie pogingen voor substantiële nieuwe militaire projecten gaat blokkeren, met de beschuldiging dat de DPP-regering Taiwanees belastinggeld verspilt aan het plezieren van de VS.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
US-Bürger wegen Spionagevorwurfs in Frankfurt festgenommen – FAZ: „Er soll chinesische staatliche Stellen kontaktiert und angeboten haben, ihnen sensible Informationen des US-Militärs zu geben, wie die Bundesanwaltschaft in Karlsruhe mitteilte.“ 🇩🇪
Brussels’ global infrastructure plan isn’t challenging Beijing—it’s relying on it – POLITICO Europe: ‘Not only do its efforts sometimes overlap with its rival’s; many of the projects it is funding are being built by Chinese state-owned companies.’
‘Since the beginning of 2019, Chinese companies have been awarded more than €1 billion worth of contracts for EIB-funded projects in countries outside the EU, such as Georgia, Senegal, and Tunisia. This represents roughly 13.1 percent of the total value of third-country contracts attributed to the EIB’ 🇪🇺
Philippine Coast Guard to acquire 40 fast patrol craft from France – AFP: ‘funded by development aid from the French government.’ ‘with plans to deploy some of them in disputed areas of the South China Sea.’ 🇫🇷
China’s top political advisor meets speaker of Hungarian National Assembly László Kövér – Xinhua: ‘Kövér said although Hungary and China are geographically far apart, the two countries share common values and similar views, and both adhere to the principles of mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.’ 🇭🇺
Taiwan closely watching incoming centre-left Lithuania coalition government, diplomat says – Taipei Times: ‘Paluckas told Lithuanian media that he wished to restore full diplomatic relations with China’ 🇱🇹
Taiwan and Britain hold new round of trade talks – Reuters: ‘Taiwan's Office of Trade Negotiations said talks with visiting British officials in Taipei this week focused on issues such as digital trade, investment, renewable energy and net-zero emissions.’ 🇬🇧
Xi congratulates Maia Sandu on reelection as president of Moldova – Xinhua 🇲🇩
Rusland 🇷🇺
China to import Russian tech and expertise to boost low-altitude defences, Chinese state media reports – SCMP: ‘A Chinese security company and a Russian university have had “extensive interactions” over importing Russian aviation technology’ 🇷🇺
China’s exports to Russia grow at quickest pace in 11 months – Reuters: ‘The increase was higher than the 15.7% gain in September. China's imports from Russia, however, fell 4.3% last month from a year earlier, narrowing from the decline of 9.2% in September, as payment issues disrupted trade transactions.’ 🇷🇺
China-listed TV maker halts work at Russian factory over payment issues with foreign suppliers for spare parts – Reuters 🇷🇺
Putin says China is Russia’s ally, backs its stance on Taiwan – Reuters: ‘He suggested that Taiwan was trying to stir up a Ukraine-style crisis in Asia in order to attract outside support.’ 🇷🇺
Handel 🚗🇪🇺
China and EU engage in intensive consultations on EV tariffs, commerce ministry says – Xinhua: ‘The EU technical team arrived in Beijing on Nov. 2’ 🇪🇺
Italy cuts automotive industry support to avoid funding cars made in China – Reuters 🇮🇹
Xpeng 小鹏 stirs up rivalry with BYD 比亚迪 and Li Auto 理想汽车 in extended-range hybrid car market – SCMP
Tech War 💽💥
Trump win casts cloud over TSMC 台積電 and Samsung 三星 US chip plans – Nikkei Asia: ‘The president-elect has criticized the bipartisan CHIPS Act’ 🇺🇸
TSMC 台積電 able to cope with Trump in White House, expert says – Focus Taiwan: ‘the chipmaker's efforts to diversify its productions could help it better respond to the change of government in the U.S.’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan should pour more resources into advancing chip technology and expanding its supply chain expertise to maintain global leadership, an executive from TSMC 台積電 says – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
TSMC 台積電 cannot make 2nm chips abroad now, economic affairs ministry says – Taipei Times: ‘Taiwanese law limits domestic chipmakers to producing chips abroad that are at least one generation less advanced than their fabs at home.’
China’s chipmaking equipment market to shrink next year – Nikkei Asia: ‘a result of an earlier rush of ahead-of-schedule purchases amid heightened tensions with the U.S.’
Semiconductor firms ASML, AMD, and Qualcomm reaffirm China commitment at CIIE trade fair – SCMP
Huawei 华为 reportedly offers triple salaries to poach TSMC 台積電 engineers – DigiTimes Asia
Tech war: China’s top chip foundry SMIC 中芯 posts record revenue despite US sanction warning – SCMP
Trudeau government bans ByteDance 字节跳动’s TikTok from operating in Canada—but Canadians can still use app – CBC News: ‘“We came to the conclusion that these activities that were conducted in Canada by TikTok and their offices would be injurious to national security,” he told CBC News.’ 🇨🇦
Taiwan responds to reported SpaceX pressure on Taiwan suppliers – Focus Taiwan: ‘said Tuesday that “short-term political factors” should not affect the country's involvement in the international space industry’ 🇺🇸
Een toch niet zo onschuldig keukenhulpje: bespioneerd door je airfryer – De Telegraaf
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Russia and China ‘emerging axis’ troubling, says Australia intelligence chief – Reuters 🇦🇺
De Europese veiligheid hing de afgelopen halve eeuw nooit aan zo’n dun draadje als nu – de Volkskrant: „Europa kán op korte termijn het wegvallen van Amerikaanse militaire hulp niet vervangen. Daarom zal hierover met Trump onderhandeld moeten worden. En de gepresenteerde rekening moet worden betaald.” 🇪🇺
Als de Europese Unie ooit een ‘hamiltoniaans moment’ nodig had, is het wel nu – Diederik Samsom in de Volkskrant 🇪🇺
Editorial: The end of an American world – Le Monde: ‘This threat [against Ukraine] is existential for the European Union, and its leaders need to be aware of it and prepared to confront it, without waiting for Trump to take office’ 🇪🇺
Trump win will force Europe to step up defense efforts, say France and Germany – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
The real winners of the US election: Europe’s populist right-wing wreckers – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Mark Rutte: North Korean troops in Europe marks turning point – POLITICO Europe: ‘China bears particular responsibility here, to use its influence in Pyongyang and Moscow to ensure they cease these actions. Beijing cannot pretend to promote peace while turning a blind eye to increasing aggression.’ 🇰🇵🇺🇦
Zuid-Korea sluit directe wapenleveranties aan Oekraïne niet langer uit – NRC: „Tot nu toe verbiedt de Zuid-Koreaanse wet wapenleveringen aan landen die in oorlog zijn.” 🇰🇷🇺🇦
China should learn from Russian ‘resilience’ in sanctions defence, government researchers say – SCMP
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
From an EU Trade and Investment Dialogue to an EU-Taiwan Trade and Technology Council? – Mathieu Duchâtel for CommonWealth Magazine: ‘The EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC) is an interesting place to look at.’ 🇪🇺
Updating the EU strategy on China: Co-existence while de-risking through partnerships – Alicia García-Herrero and Abigaël Vasselier for Bruegel and MERICS 🇪🇺
Mapping China’s global port network: on the back-foot in 2024, but still well entrenched – MERICS
Northeast Asia is for deterrence and Southeast Asia is (mostly) for free-riding: Appreciating divergent East Asian approaches to order, uncertainty, and contestation – Chong Ja Ian for Carnegie China: ‘Most Southeast Asian states behave as if the actions of their Northeast Asian neighbors and the Philippines will be sufficient to maintain a regional status quo from which they can benefit.’
On Taiwan: Reassessing Jimmy Carter’s derecognition of Taipei – John J. Tkacik, Jr. for Taipei Times: ‘But with a half-century’s hindsight, President Carter’s derecognition of the ROC, viewed together with his straightforward diplomacy to preserve the full substance of America’s relations with Taiwan, can now be seen in a far more positive light, especially when compared to his predecessors, Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.’ 🇺🇸
賴政府嚴查綠能弊案！外商泣訴「差點把命丟了」：來台6年被黑道勒索、找警察也沒用...台灣從根裡爛透 – 今週刊
Podcasts
What will Donald Trump’s second term in office look like? – FT Rachman Review 🍎
China’s global port politics, with Clark Banach and Jacob Gunter – MERICS China Podcast 🍎
Assessing drivers and progress in China’s climate policies – GMFUS China Global Podcast 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 sends congratulatory letter to inaugural World Conference of Classics in Beijing – Xinhua: ‘co-organized by China and Greece, along with the establishment of the Chinese School of Classical Studies in Athens’ 🇬🇷
Exclusive: China-India military talks on restoring patrols at Depsang hit roadblock – The Tribune: ‘Sources said the Chinese military negotiators, tasked with working out the “patrolling arrangements”, had been “dragging their feet” on coordinating the schedule of Indian Army patrols at points patrolled in the pre-April 2020 period.’ 🇮🇳
De BRICS-top is weer voorbij!
Chinese hackers gained access to huge trove of Americans’ cell records – POLITICO: ‘The two people said a China-backed hacking group dubbed Salt Typhoon gained access to a vast trove of so-called Call Detail Records.’ 🇺🇸
China and US officials set to discuss climate change amid fears over Donald Trump’s policies – SCMP 🇺🇸
China’s premier pledges support for Myanmar’s political transition – Reuters: ‘in a meeting with Myanmar’s junta leader’ 🇲🇲
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, calling for joint building of community with shared future – Xinhua: ‘China and Malaysia are both at crucial stages of national development and rejuvenation, Xi said.’ 🇲🇾
Philippine forces retake an island in mock combat as China’s navy watches – AP 🇵🇭
China economie
Chinese export stijgt veel sterker dan verwacht – BNR
China’s developers are borrowing more to sate thirst for capital after flood gates opened – SCMP
China’s income and job woes still weigh heavy as consumption campaign targets 5 key cites – SCMP: ‘local governments will distribute consumption vouchers, and encourage brands that have yet to open a store in an area to establish new stores.’
Bulgari CEO sees Chinese consumers fuelling luxury growth as economy improves – SCMP
China’s provinces push personnel to meet targets as end of year approaches – SCMP
Evergrande Life executives go missing amid probes into financial violations – Caixin Global
China binnenland
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 in Hubei urges accelerating rural revitalisation – Xinhua
Xinhua Headlines: Xi urges Hubei to write its own chapter in Chinese modernisation – Xinhua
China’s state secrets leak prompts rare death sentence for ex government employee – Reuters: ‘Zhang was once “a core confidential personnel of a state agency” and was exposed to a large number of state secrets at work, the [state security] ministry said.’
Chinese fabrikanten van pruiken zwijgen over dwangarbeid: „Alles over Xinjiang ligt gevoelig” – Trouw: „Veel Chinese fabrieken – met name de bedrijven die zich richten op het topsegment - werken samen met fabrieken in Noord-Korea. Deze producten zijn hoogstwaarschijnlijk gemaakt met behulp van Noord-Koreaanse dwangarbeiders.
Een andere mogelijkheid is dat de Chinese pruik gemaakt is van Oeigoers haar. Oeigoerse vrouwen die naar het buitenland wisten te ontsnappen, hebben getuigenissen afgelegd over hoe in de Chinese kampen hun haren van hun hoofd werden geschoren.”
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Action urged over plan by Fujian to attract Taiwanese nurses to China – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
APEC envoy to highlight Taiwan’s contributions, President Lai says – Focus Taiwan
1-year conscripts test Taiwan-made man-portable launchers – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Finance committee meeting passing drafts lasts three minutes – Taipei Times: ‘The [KMT] proposals seek to increase the proportion of taxes that go to local governments rather than the central government’
Government criticises opposition lawmakers’ draft amendments to funding law – Focus Taiwan: ‘the proposed amendments would require the central government to relinquish NT$661.2 billion (US$20.43 billion) — nearly half of the total financial resources at its disposal.’
Terwijl parlementsleden met elkaar vochten werden de voorstellen in drie minuten door de commissie gejaagd, om te voorkomen dat de DPP de procedures fysiek kon blokkeren. Het voorstel is weer een voorbeeld van de manier waarop de KMT en TPP proberen de centrale regering onder de DPP te verzwakken. In de lokale politiek staat de KMT relatief sterker.
Executive Yuan approves SMEs’ development plan – Taipei Times
Taiwan’s interior ministry seeks to disband the China Unification Promotion Party – Taipei Times: ‘it would present evidence the party developed organizations and interfered in elections on behalf of China.’
【朱立倫護黨魁】勸不動盧秀燕提早布局 國民黨反朱派另立龍頭 – 鏡週刊：「本刊調查，面對盧遲不表態，以議長系統為主的反朱派著手準備腹案，將目光轉向擁有黨務經驗的其他藍營要角，包括前祕書長李乾龍、前副主席郝龍斌等都被列入口袋人選。」
「〔⋯⋯〕傳出有反朱立倫的中評委磨刀霍霍，醞釀在全代會隔天的中評會提案，要求藍委在國會修正《立法院組織法》，鬆綁立法院長不得擔任黨職的禁令，藉此力拱韓國瑜參選黨主席；」