De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 6 oktober: België surveilleert Alibaba, subsidieonderzoek EU formeel van start
De Britse Financial Times bericht dat de Belgische diensten het distributiecentrum van Alibaba in Luik in de gaten zouden houden. De Standaard kreeg dit bevestigd. Het is mij niet helemaal duidelijk of dit nu vooral preventief is, of dat men echt iets heeft gevonden. De Financial Times lijkt dat laatste te suggereren, maar komt niet met iets concreets.
De Europese Commissie kondigt formeel het begin van het subsidieonderzoek naar elektrische auto’s gefabriceerd in China aan. Peking is al niet blij en klaagt dat Brussel de gebruikelijke consultatieprocedures niet goed heeft doorlopen. Volgens het publicatieblad van de EU is er uit openbare bronnen al voldoende bewijs op te maken.
Wat ik vooral opmerk is dat, als ik de kranten mag geloven, dit gebeurt op grote voorspraak van Frankrijk. Het past ook wel bij de geopolitieke en beschermende rol die niet alleen Macron maar ook Ursula von der Leyen voor de Unie ziet. Tegelijkertijd is de Duitse weerstand niet te ontkennen. Maar andere lidstaten schijnen ook niet helemaal blij te zijn met deze ‘geo-economische commissie’, als het bijvoorbeeld gaat om de aangekondigde lijst met technologieën die het onderwerp zullen zijn van de-riskingonderzoek.
De Verenigde Staten lijken ondertussen echt klaar te zijn met de update voor de beperkingen op halfgeleidertechnologie. Dat zou ook ons kunnen raken. Ook gaat China gewoon door met mercantilisme: Andrew Batson heeft een goed artikel over een opmerking van Xi Jinping waaruit je kunt opmaken dat hij wil dat China het heel scala aan industrie zelf houdt – niks ‘flying geese’ die à la Japan andere ontwikkelingsladen mee kunnen trekken. De-risking komt naar je toe deze herfst.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Staatsveiligheid houdt Chinese internetgigant Alibaba in de gaten – De Standaard: ‘schrijft de Financial Times en is bevestigd aan De Standaard.’ 🇧🇪
Belgische inlichtingendiensten onderzoeken spionage via distributiecentrum Alibaba – FD 🇧🇪
💡 Belgian intelligence monitor Alibaba hub over ‘espionage’ concerns – FT: ‘Belgium’s security services told the Financial Times they were working to detect “possible espionage and/or interference activities” carried out by Chinese entities “including Alibaba”.’
‘According to a person familiar with Alibaba’s relations to China’s government, the logistics centres are expected to pass on information about local sentiment and report data about European trade and logistics to Beijing’s authorities.’
Is bovenstaande verwachting de belangrijkste reden voor wat we vooral als Belgische waakzaamheid moeten zien, of hebben ze echt iets gevonden?
‘The espionage warnings, together with mounting cases of customs fraud involving Chinese companies at Liège airport, are a serious challenge for Belgium’s government, which had initially courted Alibaba.’ 🇧🇪
EU stappen de-risking 🇪🇺🇨🇳
The EU formally launches an anti-subsidies probe into electric vehicles manufactured in China – Bloomberg
Bericht van inleiding van een antisubsidieprocedure betreffende de invoer van nieuwe batterijvoertuigen, ontworpen voor het vervoer van personen, van oorsprong uit de Volksrepubliek China – Publicatieblad van de Europese Unie: „Openbaar beschikbare informatie levert voldoende bewijs op dat de invoer van het onderzochte product van oorsprong uit de Volksrepubliek China profiteert van tot compenserende maatregelen aanleiding gevende subsidies van de overheid van de Volksrepubliek China.”
Beijing squares up for big fight with Brussels over EV probe – POLITICO Europe: ‘Beijing essentially accused the EU of failing to ensure due process.’
China bites back as EU launches probe into electric vehicle industry – SCMP: ‘It will not only look for support given to Chinese brands, but also European and other international brands based in China.’
💡 Watching China in Europe — October 2023 – Noah Barkin: ‘My fear is that harmless private sniping between Berlin and Paris over China policy now risks turning into something more serious. As one French diplomat put it to me: “The decoupling between France and Germany on China is real.”’
‘A veteran observer of France’s China policy put it this way: “Macron is two-faced with the Chinese, cozying up to Xi while pushing for tariffs on Chinese EVs. The Chinese can see through it. But they are perhaps more comfortable with Macron’s open contradictions than they are with Scholz’s murkiness.”’
‘An EU official told me that there was a “full-blown rebellion” against Commission plans to implement core tenets of the EU’s 2021 dual-use regulation, which allows individual member states to put export controls introduced at the national level (but not approved in multilateral regimes such as the Wassenaar Arrangement) on the EU agenda.’
Choppy waters as Europe navigates China-US rivalry – Reuters
China Trends #17 - Sailing the seas of economic security – Mathieu Duchâtel, Marcin Przychodniak, Francesca Ghiretti, and Pierre Pinhas for Institut Montaigne
Taiwan to list critical technologies it wants to protect from China this year – Nikkei Asia
Taiwan volgt dezelfde aanpak als Europa, lijkt het.
Tech War 💽💥
US curbs on chip tools to China nearly finalised, government posting shows – Reuters
Tech war: Taiwan’s share in global semiconductor manufacturing supply chain to decline, while mainland China poised for gains, IDC report says – SCMP
Het Taiwanese aandeel zou nog bijna dubbel het Chinese aandeel zijn.
Chinese regulators give AI firms a helping hand – Angela Huyue Zhang for Project Syndicate
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
China to double size of space station, touts alternative to NASA-led ISS – Reuters
In alles presenteert Peking China als alternatief voor het Amerikaanse Westen.
Scientists from China and Europe to target gamma rays from Tiangong space station – SCMP
The 8-year-old boy at the heart of a fight over Tibetan Buddhism – The New York Times: ‘the 10th reincarnation of the Bogd [Jebtsundamba Khutughtu], one of the three most important figures in Tibetan Buddhism and, for many, the spiritual leader of Mongolia’
‘The naming of a Mongolian lama reincarnate ensures Mongolia will be drawn deeper into the political chess match between China and the Dalai Lama.’
A new cultural mission: Developing a modern Chinese civilisation – CCP Central Committee Bimonthly “Qiushi”
Weekend
Longreads en achtergrond
China isn’t shifting away from the dollar or dollar bonds – Brad W. Setser for CFR: ‘The bulk of China’s post 2012 efforts to diversify its reserves have come not from shifting reserves out of the dollar, but rather by using what could have been reserves to support the Belt and Road and the outward expansion of Chinese firms’
The end of experimentation and aspiration in Xi Jinping’s China – Diana Choyleva for Asia Society Policy Institute
How China’s “debt traps” actually work –
Reading between the lines of China’s new security rules for embassies and consulates – Niva Yau for The Atlantic Council: ‘Host countries need to be aware that Beijing could use the rules to further its repression of Chinese dissidents and expand its security and intelligence apparatuses via its embassies and consulates.’
Holding Sway: China’s United Front Work Department, known for its influence operations abroad, is even busier at home – Jessica Batke for ChinaFile: ‘it is pursuing a single mission: namely, to seek out individuals and groups in society outside the Party’s control and cement their status as friends rather than enemies.’
Most people didn’t read any of China's spam disinformation. That doesn’t mean it didn’t work – Blue Marble: ‘the main goal might be “very targeted personal attacks on individuals and organizations,” Cheng said.’
Reading China’s media counter-attack to US State Department’s misinformation report – China Media Project: ‘Far from refuting the report’s allegations, the official response from the MFA and state-run media makes the case.’
‘Careful readers might note that while China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded with fury to the Department of State report, its counter-attack did not at all deny that China was seeking, as the report said, to “reshape the global information landscape.” Unless a sea of official ink on the subject is to be doubted, which it is not, this is most definitely the goal.’
Historiker Frank Dikötter über Chinas Aufstieg : »Für Xi Jinping gilt: China hat lang genug gewartet« – Der Spiegel
Podcasts
Does China care what Britain thinks? – The Spectator’s Chinese Whisperers talks to foreign secretary James Cleverly, Sophia Gaston, and Sam Hogg 🍎 🤖
Drum Tower goes to Washington DC – The Economist: ‘David and Alice also talk to a class of postgraduate students looking at the US-China relationship and find out what this younger generation thinks about the future.’ 🍎 🤖
Deep Tech VC on AI, chips, and US-China competition –
🍎 🤖💡 Kurt Campbell on grand strategy & the future of US-China –
: ‘I think internally [the Soviets] understood that they were not meeting their five-year plans […]’ By contrast, ‘I don’t think the Chinese believe in any way that they have elements of decline in their system. I think what animates them is not only a sense of aggrievement at the highest level — the idea of reversing decades or a century of what they call humiliation — but also a sense that China’s time has come’‘I think some of the things that we hear from people in China today suggest that the kind of information and the people that President Xi gets information from is increasingly limited, and that sometimes it’s hard in the system currently to speak truth to power.’ 🍎 🤖
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
The US is deepening intelligence cooperation across Asia to counter Chinese spying and hacking – Bloomberg: ‘including an intelligence-sharing arrangement with the “Quad” grouping of the US, India, Japan and Australia’ and ‘trilateral partnerships among the US, Japan and South Korea, and one encompassing the US, Japan and the Philippines’
Chinese Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 pushes Himalayan neighbours on ‘territorial integrity’ at forum in Tibet near disputed border with India – SCMP: ‘Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Mutaqi also attended’
China Focus: Nyingchi Initiative released to boost development of trans-Himalaya region – Xinhua: ‘Trans-Himalaya Economic Cooperation Belt’
China warns another Philippine supply operation in South China Sea; Manila claims successful operation – SCMP
Chinese vessel made ‘dangerous manoeuvres’ vs latest Philippine resupply mission, says Senate President Zubiri – GMA News
Philippines and South Korea to cover ‘security’ in West Philippine Sea [South China Sea] at 2nd maritime meet – PNA
Australia concludes China decoupling ‘impossible’ after carrying out series of classified studies – SCMP
Kosten zijn een politieke keuze.
China and South Korea response muted after 2nd Fukushima water release – Nikkei Asia
China ‘kills own sailors with trap set for US and British vessels’ – The Times
Woensdag noemde ik al een verslag van de onbetrouwbare tabloid Daily Mail, maar nu staat het ook in de iets geloofwaardigere Times. De redacteur is echter niet duidelijk of The Times zelf de ‘leaked intelligence reports’ in heeft gezien, of slechts schrijft over de Daily Mail en de reactie van het Britse ministerie van defensie. Ik vertrouw het nog steeds niet.
China economie
China office vacancies worse than zero-Covid levels in top cities – Nikkei Asia
China’s property crisis has regional knock-on effects, Asean macroeconomic research body says – SCMP
Chinese developer Sunac 融创 makes debt restructuring court approval breakthrough – FT
💡 China wants those low-end industries after all – Andrew Batson: ‘the idea is to maintain the ability to produce the full range of goods within China.’
China’s exporters navigate bumpy road back overseas amid turbulent economic recovery – SCMP
Are China’s state-owned giants about to get even bigger? Party journal flags ‘a matter of survival’ – SCMP
China binnenland
Oeigoerse influencers maken mooi-weer-show op TikTok – De Telegraaf
China bans Mongolian theatre production 30 minutes before curtain-up in Hohhot – The Sydney Morning Herald: ‘The shutdown follows growing restrictions on Mongolian culture in China by Beijing.’ ‘The Mongolian government has invested heavily in The Mongol Khan as part of an international public relations campaign to pull in investment and tourism.’
China spy agency widens remit as well as reach with WeChat social media account – SCMP
Closure of maternity wards fuels Chinese debate over population decline – The Guardian
Hong Kong
10 jailed for up to 4 years over rioting in Hong Kong’s Central district in 2019 – HKFP: ‘some of whom were teenagers at the time of the offence’
23 people jailed for up to 4 years and 2 months over rioting near Hong Kong government headquarters in 2019 – HKFP
Terwijl we in Europa al weer met andere dingen bezig zijn, vullen de gelijkgeschakelde rechters in Hong Kong nog altijd de gevangenissen met jonge demonstranten.
Over half of Hong Kong professionals considering leaving the city within 5 years, survey finds – HKFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China interrogating more Taiwanese crossing border, says national security official – Taipei Times
獨家》劍指蔡英文而來?小英之友會成員赴中探親被抓 – 自由時報
Nauru president and 43 Japanese lawmakers to visit Taiwan for National Day – Focus Taiwan
New Taipei signs MOUs with five US cities – Taipei Times
Taiwan has right to choose its destiny, says UK lawmaker Alicia Kearns, chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee – Taipei Times
Taiwan verkiezingen
TPP nominee Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 advocates poll-based decision on joint opposition presidential ticket – Focus Taiwan
Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) offers knockout deathmatch to unite opposition in Taiwan’s presidential race – Courtney Donovan Smith: ‘While it is still possible that the Ko and Hou teams reach some sort of agreement, it is not probable. The timeline is short, and there are advantages to each side in keeping their candidate in the fray.’
Can Taiwan’s opposition settle on a unity candidate? – Brian Hioe for The Diplomat
KMT chair Eric Chu 朱立倫 backs opposition ‘cooperation’ to unseat DPP – Taipei Times
Most Taiwanese want DPP ‘taken off the shelf’, says ex-president Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 (KMT) – The Straits Times
Dat has-been KMT’ers als Ma Ying-jeou wel en DPP’ers niet worden uitgenodigd voor fora als dit in Singapore, laat goed zien welke richting de werelden van ‘Greater China’ en ‘Asia-Pacific’ nog altijd uit hellen.
On the Taiwanese island of Kinmen, just a few miles off China, residents are losing their admiration for Beijing – Bloomberg
Waar 22% voor Tsai Ing-wen (DPP) in 2020 als ongekend hoog geldt.
Taiwan binnenland en economie
KMT accuses DPP government over National Day phrase, calls on ROC patriots to boycott – Taipei Times
KMT legislator Ma Wen-chun 馬文君 submarine leak accusations outlined – Taipei Times
O.a. zou gelekt hebben aan Zuid-Korea, dat daarop ingenieurs die in Taiwan hadden geholpen aan het project zou hebben gearresteerd voor het breken exportbeperkingen.
Top Taipei offices post record rent – Taipei Times
Taiwan records world’s third most powerful wind gust ever recorded globally as Typhoon Koinu hits – The Guardian