De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 4 oktober: elektrische auto’s
Vandaag stemt men in Brussel over de Europese heffingen op elektrische auto’s uit China. Het lijkt erop dat er geen gekwalificeerde meerderheid voor tegenhouden is – ondanks Duitslands campagne – dus dat de Commissie verder kan gaan met de strategie van beperkte heffingen en onderhandelingen.
Uit Duitsland, Spanje en Hongarije komen allemaal rare geluiden. Scholz en andere hoge Duitsers roepen op om het dispuut op te lossen d.m.v. gesprek. Dat is al beleid van de Commissie, alleen kunnen de relatief beperkte heffingen – BYD-auto’s zijn nog steeds winstgevend in Europa – daar ook een rol in spelen.
Een strategisch gelekte brief van Spanje met dezelfde overbodige oproep is vooral nuttig om het straatje van Madrid schoon te vegen. De Hongaarse minister van buitenlandse zaken begint over een veto die niet mogelijk is in deze procedure. Hopen de landen op deze manier Chinese vergelding op andere lidstaten af te wentelen?
Ik ben het eens met de groep denktankers die in Euractiv uitlegt waarom de heffingen nuttig zijn. Dat is echter niet direct de reden waarom ik me hierboven zo druk maak om de capriolen van Duitsland, Spanje en Hongarije. Je kunt best de heffingen niet als juiste oplossing en dan alsnog de acties van deze landen als beschadigend zien voor de mogelijkheid van Brussel om effectief China-beleid te voeren.
Peking voert een heel bewust verdeel-en-heers beleid in Europa. Dat zien we in breder opzicht in de rol an landen als Servië en Hongarije, maar binnen de Europese Unie zijn ook Duitsland en Spanje erg belangrijk. China heeft lang de dreigende geluiden uit Brussel minder serieus genomen, omdat men dacht de Europese hoofdsteden toch welk uit elkaar te kunnen spelen.
Daar is enige verandering in gekomen sinds de Commissie meer machtsmiddelen heeft gekregen in de loop van de jaren én zich ook bewuster is geworden van de mogelijkheden die ze bieden. Dat vereist echter wel dat de lidstaten meespelen. Hongarije is al langer een probleemgeval en een zwakke plek. Maar Duitsland en Spanje laten met hun opzichtige ondermijningscampagne nu ook heel duidelijk merken dat ze bereid zijn om Brussel de saboteren als China maar genoeg materiële prikkels in het vooruitzicht stelt.
Hiermee heeft Scholz ons allemaal zwakker gemaakt voor de volgende keer dat Brussel en Peking een conflict hebben. Hoe serieus hoeft Peking bijvoorbeeld Brusselse eisen te nemen op het gebied van Chinese leveranties aan Ruslands oorlogsmachine, als Peking weet dat de Commissie toch compromissen moet sluiten met de bange Scholz?
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Spokesperson of the Mission to the EU Speaks on a Question Concerning NATO’s China-related Remarks – Mission of the People's Republic of China to the European Union
Reactie op Rutte.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Grünen) expected to visit China ‘in coming days’ – SCMP 🇩🇪
German ships that passed through Taiwan Strait were warned off, officials say – Reuters: ‘received close scrutiny and repeated radio messages from Chinese vessels’ 🇩🇪
Rusland 🇷🇺
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells Russia’s Vladimir Putin he is ready to ‘expand’ cooperation – AFP: ‘as the two leaders exchanged congratulations on the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations’ 🇷🇺
Foreign minister Lavrov writes that Russia stands alongside China on Taiwan and other Asian issues – Reuters: ‘Writing to mark the Russia’s 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations with China, Lavrov said Moscow and Beijing held close positions “in assessing the risks associated with the advance of the West in the Asia-Pacific region”.’ 🇷🇺
Handel 🚗🇪🇺
EU expected to back tariffs on China-made EVs despite last-gasp German bid to kill them – SCMP: ‘Blocking the tariffs requires 15 member states, accounting for 65 per cent of the bloc’s total population, to vote against them during the confidential procedure.’ 🇪🇺
EU has enough support to impose Chinese EV tariffs, sources say – Reuters: ‘France, Greece, Italy and Poland will vote in favour, officials and sources in those countries told Reuters. Together, they represent 39% of the EU population.’ 🇪🇺
Scholz forces German ‘no’ vote in Chinese EV duty saga – POLITICO Europe: ‘Scholz used an executive power called the Richtlinienkompetenz to force the issue inside the coalition.’ 🇩🇪
Schols overrulet de wens van het vakministerie. Spanning in de coalitie door over de Grünen heen te walsen. Wat levert het op?
Germany’s Scholz calls for more talks with China on electric vehicles – Reuters 🇩🇪
Volkswagen calls on Germany to vote against EU tariffs on Chinese cars – Reuters 🇩🇪
German union and auto workers call on Germany to vote against EU tariffs on Chinese EVs – Reuters 🇩🇪
China and EU, must reason their way out of EV dispute, former Merkel adviser says – SCMP 🇩🇪
Dat is ook wat de Commissie aan het doen is, met de heffingen als stok…
Exclusive: Spain calls for compromise with China ahead of EU vote on EV tariffs – Reuters: ‘the EU should “keep negotiations open ... beyond the binding vote” to strike a deal on prices as well as the relocation of battery production to the bloc, Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo said in a letter to the European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis seen by Reuters.’ 🇪🇸
Bovenstaande aanpak is al aangekondigd als beleid van de Commissie…
Hungary will veto [sic] EU plan to impose Chinese EV tariffs, foreign minister says – Reuters 🇭🇺
Dat kan helemaal niet, deze procedure kent geen veto…
Opinion: EU member states should endorse tariffs on Chinese EVs or risk undermining European interests and agency – Alicia García-Herrero, François Godement, Jacob Gunter, Max J. Zenglein, Jakub Jakóbowski, Björn Jerdén, Janka Oertel, and Dominika Remžová for Euractiv: ‘the logical endgame of a strategic posture shackled by fear of any negative consequences is perpetual inaction.’
‘China will never take seriously a Europe that can be divided and conquered by waving a stick at fearful member states, dangling some carrots for compliant ones, and diplomatically sweet-talking others’ 🇪🇺
achtergrond: Terms and Conditions Apply: Regulating Chinese EV Manufacturing Investment in Europe – Rhodium Group
EU’s Belt and Road: How’s it going? – POLITICO China Watcher: ‘A senior diplomat in Brussels told me that Beijing “is quite pleased” with the ongoing negotiation with Brussels, given that they have the impression the EU is open to removing tariffs in exchange for a minimum price.’ 🇪🇺
France’s President Macron: EU needs to look lively or risk being forever outdone by US and China – POLITICO Europe: ‘the French president said that if China and the U.S. do not respect the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the EU should not respect them either.‘ 🇫🇷
Column: Europa zoekt kompas voor ‘rijdende computers’ – Luuk van Middelaar in NRC
‘Electric vehicles from leading Chinese automaker NIO have been well-received by car owners in the Netherlands.’ – Xinhua, Twitter 🇳🇱
Tech War 💽💥
Opening our new Transparency and Accountability Centre in Dublin – TikTok; ‘we welcomed Ireland’s Minister of State for Trade Promotion, Digital and Company Regulation, Dara Calleary’ 🇮🇪🇪🇺
India and US to cooperate on critical battery minerals, trade minister says – Reuters 🇮🇳🇺🇸
Taiwan’s GlobalWafers 環球晶圓 gears up for further global expansion – Nikkei Asia
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
China’s goods prove hard to resist as US and EU maintain imports amid tariff bonanza – SCMP: ‘While China has reduced its reliance on goods from the United States and European Union, a German think tank said, use of the country’s products has increased “significantly” in the West over the past 20 years’ 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Aleksandar Vučić has a clear strategy in his geopolitical chess game – POLITICO Europe 🇷🇸
UK will give sovereignty of Chagos Islands to Mauritius – BBC News: ‘The US-UK base will remain on Diego Garcia — a key factor enabling the deal to go forward at a time of growing geopolitical rivalries in the region between Western countries, India, and China.’ 🇬🇧🇲🇺🇺🇸
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Why the US can’t impose its will over global trade in electric cars – Alan Beattie
How the US lost the solar power race to China – Bloomberg
The changing face of Chinatowns across Asia – The Straits Times
Fleeing Xi’s ‘China Dream’: The great exodus of people and capital – Lynette Ong for Nikkei Asia: ‘According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the number of Chinese citizens seeking political asylum overseas climbed to 120,000 in 2021, a more than twelvefold increase since the time of Xi's predecessor, Hu Jintao.’
Taiwan’s search for a grand strategy: Examining the four pillars of Taiwan's emerging approach – Ryan Hass for Brookings: ‘This emerging grand strategy rests on four pillars: developing whole-of-society resilience; pursuing active diplomacy with other key powers; raising international awareness of Taiwan’s indispensability to the global economy; and building asymmetric defensive capabilities.’
Een goed overzicht van de strategie van de DPP-regering dat het grootste probleem compleet negeert: de obstructie van de KMT en TPP. Hass kan nog zo hard zeggen dat Lai zich in moet houden op het vlak van identiteit, dat verandert niks aan het feit dat in het parlement een meerderheid is voor het slopen van de defensiebegroting en het uithollen van de macht.
En nou is het afgelopen: SHEIN 希音 – De Avondshow met Arjen Lubach (S6), YouTube
Podcasts
China’s drive for self-sufficiency in critical technologies, with Antonia Hmaidi – MERICS China Podcast
How Russia Views China: A Conversation with Dr Andrea Kendall-Taylor – CSIS ChinaPower Podcast
The Sentinel State – CSIS Pekingology with Minxin Pei
Erg goed boek over de Chinese politieke politie en hun gebruik van wat de Stasi ‘IM’ noemde.
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Zuid-Chinese Zee
Escalating contest over South China Sea disrupts international cable system – The Washington Post: ‘Some cable repairs have been delayed months because of lags in Chinese permitting. At least two new cable projects are years overdue.’
‘A recent incident, which was previously not disclosed, reveals China’s efforts to assert its dominance. In April, a crew aboard a private subsea cable ship escorted by a Vietnamese naval vessel was carrying out a repair within Vietnam’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), hundreds of miles from the Chinese mainland, when they were confronted by a Chinese coast guard vessel.’
‘Under U.N. conventions, cable companies only require permission from a country to fix faults within its territorial waters, which extend 12 miles off the coast, not ones farther out in its 200-mile EEZ. But given the tensions in the South China Sea, many companies have started to ask for permission to enter EEZs. Where there are overlapping claims, companies often seek permits from multiple countries.’
‘At the same time that [the Southeast Asia-Japan 2 (SJC2) system] has been stalled, two Chinese-led projects without American involvement have been proceeding and are on track to come online next year’
Ook dit is een voorbeeld van succesvolle Chinese lawfare, waarin Peking erin geslaagd is de internationale juridische norm te ondergraven.
Vietnam protests Chinese force’s attack on fishermen in contested waters – Reuters: ‘The Vietnamese foreign ministry said in a statement that Chinese law enforcers beat the Vietnamese fishermen and took away their fishing equipment when their boat was operating near Hoang Sa, Vietnam’s name for the Paracel Islands.’ 🇻🇳
overige
What reports got wrong about China’s ‘sunken nuclear submarine’ – DefenseOne: ‘In January, Western media aired claims by unnamed U.S. officials that corrupt PLA officers had filled their missiles with water. The reporting seemed to be unaware that the Chinese term 灌水 (guànshuǐ), which does mean “to pour water into” but also references unscrupulous butchers adding water to meat to increase its weight and price, used metaphorically to refer to corruption.’
China urges UN Security Council to de-escalate Middle East crisis – Reuters
China evacuates citizens from Lebanon, urges security precautions for nationals in Iran – SCMP 🇱🇧🇮🇷
US and China plan Biden-Xi call in the coming days – VOA 🇺🇸
China and US agree to revive health cooperation after years-long chill – SCMP 🇺🇸
Feds charge five University of Michigan students from China amid FBI counterintelligence probe – The Detroit News: ‘were found on a military facility in northern Michigan last year during a U.S. National Guard training exercise with members of the Taiwanese military.’ 🇺🇸🇹🇼
Er duiken regelmatig verloren Chinese studenten en toeristen op in de buurt van Amerikaanse militaire faciliteiten. Daar zullen echt verdwaalde mensen tussen zitten, maar het bovenstaande geval maakt duidelijk dat er ook té grote toevalligheden zijn.
The CIA boosts its efforts to recruit Chinese citizens, as it seeks to capitalise on what US officials say is growing discontent with President Xi Jinping’s rule – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
Dit soort publieke uitingen vallen altijd erg slecht bij de Chinese diensten.
Winnie Greco, New York City mayoral aide under investigation, steered Adams’ relations with China for almost a decade – The City 🇺🇸
US bans Chinese steel and food-additives firms over Xinjiang human rights – SCMP 🇺🇸
China to bring Tanzania-Zambia railway back to full speed with US$1 billion boost – SCMP 🇹🇿🇿🇲
China economie
China’s local governments rein in infrastructure bonds on budget fears – Nikkei Asia
IMF ‘too polite’ on China policies and financing assurances, US Treasury official says – Reuters 🇺🇸
China binnenland
China’s cyberspace regulator launches crackdown on illegal online news services – Xinhua
China is removing crosses from churches, replacing images of Christ with Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 – Catholic News Agency
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan deports two Chinese nationals for harassing pro-Hong Kong event in Taipei – Reuters 🇨🇳
65 Taiwanese air force officers to train in the US as island awaits latest F-16V jets – SCMP 🇺🇸
Taiwan office in Israel helps two nationals leave amid escalating tensions – Focus Taiwan 🇮🇱
Council of Indigenous Peoples head visits Palau – Taipei Times 🇵🇼
Taiwan joining CPTPP ‘essential’ for extra GDP growth, trade official says – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Typhoon holiday in northern Taiwan leads to partisan contention between KMT and DPP – New Bloom
51,000 households across Taiwan still without power due to Typhoon Krathon – Focus Taiwan
Fire at Pingtung hospital leaves 8 dead, 2 missing – Focus Taiwan