De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 31 mei: elektrische auto’s, Nuctech, Rusland
Het onderzoek van de Europese Commissie naar Chinese dumping op de markt voor elektrische auto’s nadert zijn eindpunt. De voorlopige uitkomsten werden 5 juni verwacht, i.v.m. het noodzakelijke tijdpad. Nu bericht media echter dat men het zou willen uitstellen tot na de Europese verkiezingen van 6–9 juni.
China is niet blij, de Duitse FDP is niet blij, en ook veel Chinese zakenmensen houden hun hart vast. Europese zakenlui zijn nog minder bezorgd, zo blijkt uit een peiling, maar het lijkt er toch echt op dat we een handelsconfrontatie tegemoet gaan.
Ondertussen gaan de andere zorgen gewoon door. BNR bericht dat de Nederlandse Douane alsnog scanners van het Chinese Nuctech wil kopen, terwijl de Commissie onderzoek doet naar Chinese staatssteun en andere instanties zich weer zorgen maken over de veiligheidsrisico’s.
De Amerikanen oefenen druk uit op Europa om meer mee te doen tegen de Chinese export naar Rusland. Campbell zou waarschuwingen naar Europa hebben gebracht en nu komt ook een andere Amerikaanse functionaris met een toespraak in Berlijn. Tegelijkertijd bericht de Wall Street Journal dat de Amerikaanse sancties een soort alternatieve Leveringsketen van het Kwaad (dixit Bush) hebben gecreëerd, gecentreerd op China – met allerlei andere eveneens gesanctioneerde landen.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Nederlandse douane mogelijk opnieuw in zee met verdacht Chinees bedrijf Nuctech 同方威视 – BNR: „Eind april hebben Nederlandse en EU-inspecteurs een inval gedaan bij Nuctech, omdat het met behulp van staatssteun uit China mogelijk oneerlijk zou concurreren met Europese bedrijven.”
„Nuctech levert de producten daarnaast ‘spotgoedkoop’, legt Vleugels uit. Dat maakt de firma een interessante partner voor de Douane, hoewel die prijzen juist ook voor argwaan hebben gezorgd in Brussel.” 🇳🇱
Douane overweegt opnieuw grote order Chinese scanners van omstreden Nuctech 同方威视 – FD
Rusland 🇷🇺
US warns Europe to get serious about China’s aid to Russia – POLITICO Europe: ‘Kurt Campbell — the deputy secretary of state who until recently served as U.S. President Joe Biden’s “Indo-Pacific czar” — this week hand-delivered that warning to European diplomats in NATO with “as much detail and specifics as possible.”’ 🇺🇸🇷🇺
US seeks to choke off supplies via China for Russia’s war machine – FT: ‘In a speech to German business leaders in Berlin on Friday, US deputy Treasury secretary Wally Adeyemo will urge western companies to stop Russia importing critical components from or via China.’ 🇺🇸🇷🇺
China is prudent and responsible regarding export of military products, defence ministry says – Xinhua: ‘regarding the remarks of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the British defense secretary on relations between China and Russia.’
‘The U.S. is providing military aid to Ukraine at an unprecedented level while making baseless accusations against normal economic and trade activities between China and Russia, which is a textbook example of double standards and is extremely hypocritical and irresponsible, Wu said.’
China could arrange Russia-Ukraine peace conference, Lavrov tells RIA – Reuters 🇷🇺🇺🇦
China has increasingly foiled US-led efforts to squeeze the economies of authoritarian regimes such as Russia and Iran – WSJ: ‘They have inadvertently birthed a global shadow economy tying together democracy’s chief foes, with Washington’s primary adversary, China, at the center.’ 🇷🇺🇮🇷🇻🇪
Handelsstrubbelingen
China gears up to make a deal with Europe as EV tariffs loom – Reuters: ‘China has signalled it is readying alternatives for the bargaining ahead. The EU provisional duties could be challenged, or even dropped if a large enough share of EU governments oppose them after four months.’ 🇪🇺
EU set to push decision on blockbuster Chinese EV probe until after June elections, reports say – SCMP: ‘According to German magazine Spiegel, and some trade publications, the transmission will now take place on June 10, the day the results of the European Parliament’s elections are announced. This is to “keep the issue out of a heated election campaign”, the magazine reported.’ 🇪🇺
EU executive may announce Chinese EV duty only after election – POLITICO Europe: ‘Several trade lawyers POLITICO spoke to doubted that it was possible to delay the announcement beyond June 6, as the anti-subsidy investigation rules spell out that companies need to be informed four weeks ahead of the first round of duties that should enter force by July 4.’ 🇪🇺
EU-Kommission vor Entscheidung: China will Strafzölle der EU auf E-Autos verhindern – Der Spiegel: „Die neue Frist sei der 10. Juni, sagte eine mit dem Vorhaben vertraute Person der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters.“ 🇪🇺
China calls EU commission probe on Chinese EV tariffs ‘unreasonable’ – Reuters 🇪🇺
German transport minister Wissing (FDP): Tariffs on Chinese cars ‘wrong approach’ – Euractiv: ‘Wissing said he was “puzzled that some people are now calling for competition to be restricted by the state,” adding that “this has absolutely nothing to do with a market economy.” “In the end, you have to ask yourself: do we want to steer such a major transformation process according to the blueprint of the economically defunct GDR [German Democratic Republic], or do we stick with the successful model of the Federal Republic of Germany?”’ 🇩🇪
Wissing kan wel praten over DDR en BRD, maar misschien moet hij wat meer kijken naar de VRC.
‘Striking observation from @ert_eu survey
77% of China-based CEO’s think China’s industrial overcapacity will damage its relationship with Europe, compared to 54% in Europe.
See this disconnect a lot between those on the ground in China and those watching China from Europe’ – Finbarr Bermingham, Twitter 🇪🇺
Business views on a European economic security strategy – BusinessEurope: ‘we call for caution on outbound investment, where a clear identification of the problem is necessary, followed by a careful risk-benefit analysis before taking further action.’ 🇪🇺
China announces export controls on certain aviation equipment to ‘safeguard national security’ – SCMP: ‘parts and engines of aerospace equipment and gas turbines’
China has relaxed limits on new installations of solar and wind power even as grids have become strained in some regions from the surge in clean energy deployments – Bloomberg: ‘Wind and solar farms in “areas with better resource conditions” can have as much as 10% of their generation curtailed, according to a central government work plan released late Wednesday. The previous curtailment rate was capped at 5%.’
IMF lifts China growth outlook but warns on property and trade troubles – Nikkei Asia: ‘Gopinath said industrial policies can be useful but can lead to “distortions” if they are done indiscriminately and on a more permanent basis.’
IMF raises China growth forecast but warns on industrial policy – FT: ‘the IMF also reiterated calls to restructure the China’s economy away from inefficient industrial policies supporting “priority sectors” and towards those that favour domestic consumption.’
China resolutely opposes unilateralism, protectionism, commerce ministry says – Xinhua
Xinhua Headlines: Shared passion for delicacies fuels China-EU agricultural trade – Xinhua
Tech War 💽💥
EU creates ‘AI Office’ to regulate tech under tough new law – AFP 🇪🇺
Renault will develop much of its sub-€20,000 Twingo electric car in China – Bloomberg 🇫🇷
Doe waar je al goed in bent – zo maakt de Chinese telefoonfabrikant Xiaomi 小米 een auto – NRC
China’s battery maker SVOLT, like CATL, halts German growth plans as EV sales fall – Nikkei Asia: ‘The rationale for Chinese companies to invest in battery production in Germany was weakened greatly by Berlin's abrupt move in late 2023 to cancel buyers' subsidies for EV purchases as an emergency measure to plug a fiscal hole.’ 🇩🇪
US Commerce Dept. probes South Korean chip-equipment makers – The Information 🇺🇸🇰🇷
Exclusive: TikTok preparing a US copy of the app’s core algorithm, sources say – Reuters: ‘predated a bill to force a sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations’ 🇺🇸
China’s unicorns set for capital boost after dwindling flock catches Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s eye – SCMP: ‘Analysts expect domestic venture capital and resources to be mobilised, especially related to technology, while a reliance on foreign venture capital would also be reduced having previously been the driving force behind the growth of China’s unicorns.’
Xi Story: An inspirer for sci-tech workers – Xinhua: ‘“I have rarely seen a state leader having such an ability to engage in an in-depth discussion of scientific logic and laws,” said Evans.’
China’s top spy agency says foreign agents are targeting rare earths industry – SCMP: ‘overseas spy agencies and organisations with “complicated backgrounds”’
Taiwan mulls overseas science park in Japan’s Kyushu, says new economic affairs minister – Focus Taiwan: ‘to assist Taiwanese supply chain companies there in serving both Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and local clients’ 🇯🇵
Tesla pushes suppliers to produce parts outside of China and Taiwan – Nikkei Asia: ‘by as early as next year due to rising geopolitical uncertainties’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Exodus of US law firms from Shanghai accelerates – FT 🇺🇸
Cambodia deputy PM says Japanese investment to help curb its China dependence – Nikkei Asia 🇰🇭🇯🇵
In the Market: In Asia, people ask, how do I de-risk from America? – Reuters 🇺🇸
South China Sea: expect choppy waters when US and Chinese defence chiefs Dǒng Jūn 董军 and Lloyd Austin meet – SCMP: ‘analysts do not expect the talks to bring any major change in stance on flashpoints like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.’ 🇸🇬
US-China, wars, and South China Sea likely to dominate Asian security meeting – Reuters: ‘The Shangri-La Dialogue, which attracts top defence officials, senior military officers, diplomats, weapons makers and security analysts from around the globe, will take place from May 31 to June 2 in Singapore.’ 🇸🇬
China’s Defence Minister Dǒng Jūn 董军 makes introductory visit to Singapore – The Straits Times: ‘will also meet Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security Teo Chee Hean.’ 🇸🇬
Experts call for new Bretton Woods system amid global economic challenges – Xinhua: ‘during an international forum held on Monday and Tuesday in Hangzhou’
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Shifting discourse between Xi and Putin on Ukraine – Arran Hope for Jamestown China Brief: ‘the salience of language on Ukraine has reduced, but the substance has hardened.’ 🇷🇺🇺🇦
Access Denied: Can Jen Easterly solve the China hacking problem? – The Wire China: ‘director of America’s youngest federal watchdog, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)’ 🇺🇸
New textbook reveals Xi Jinping’s doctrine of Han-centric nation-building – James Leibold for the Jamestown China Brief: ‘making the PRC’s minorities, in a sense, colonial subjects of a new Han empire.’
Commentary: Reading between the lines of Taiwan President William Lai’s inauguration speech – Chong Ja Ian for CNA
Beware forecasts of doom for Taiwan under Lai Ching-te – Ryan Hass for Brookings
The evolution of forced labour in Xinjiang – The Economist
Why US semiconductor export controls backfire and how Washington can save its 21st century economic security strategy – Matthew Schleich and Thibault Denamiel for The Diplomat
The good, the bad, and the ugly: Resource nationalism, geopolitics, and processing strategic minerals in Indonesia, South Africa, and Malaysia – Rem Korteweg en Vera Kranenburg voor Clingendael 🇮🇩🇿🇦🇲🇾
Podcasts
China’s race to tech supremacy: Embracing Africa – FT Tech Tonic 🍎
Tesla suppliers urged to produce outside China and Taiwan – Nikkei Asia Tech Latest 🍎
Xi Jinping and China’s Techno-Industrial Drive – Bonnie S. Glaser for China Global interviews Tanner Greer 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Midden-Oosten
China en Arabische landen versterken de samenwerking – FD
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells Arab leaders Gaza war can’t ‘continue indefinitely’, tops up aid – Nikkei Asia: ‘as he seeks to position Beijing as a leader of the so-called Global South and exert more influence in the Middle East, despite China’s own record of alleged human rights abuses against Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang.’
Xi says China ready to work with Arab side to put in place ‘five cooperation frameworks’ – Xinhua
China and Arab states adopt joint statement on Palestinian issue – Xinhua 🇵🇸
China ‘pained’ by Gaza situation, President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells Egyptian leader Sisi – SCMP: ‘Xi also vowed more cooperation with Egypt on fields ranging from trade and investment to international affairs’ 🇪🇬
Xi holds talks with Egyptian president – Xinhua 🇪🇬
Remarks by Ambassador Fu Cong at the UN Security Council Briefing on the Situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question – Permanent Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the UN: ‘Israel should effectively implement its obligations as the occupying power by immediately opening all land crossings and ensuring adequate and expeditious access for humanitarian supplies, the safety of humanitarian agencies and personnel, and the safe and orderly distribution of humanitarian supplies. The repeated attacks on UNRWA facility in the West Bank must be thoroughly investigated, and the perpetrators must be held accountable.’ 🇵🇸
Verenigde Staten 🇺🇸
Customs agents at US airports have expelled at least 20 Chinese students with valid visas in the past six months – Bloomberg: ‘Customs agents, who work for the US Department of Homeland Security, are canceling student visas approved by the State Department.’ 🇺🇸
Chinese foreign vice-minister Mǎ Zhāoxù 马朝旭 to visit US in latest exchange – SCMP 🇺🇸
Senior US diplomat Campbell meets Chinese counterpart after sanctions warning – Reuters 🇺🇸
Two giant pandas from China to arrive at US National Zoo – The Guardian 🇺🇸
The Report on Human Rights Violations in the United States in 2023 – Xinhua 🇺🇸
overige
Chinese national arrested in Singapore for creating malware that allowed criminals to steal billions – The Straits Times: ‘a multi-jurisdiction operation led by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ).’ 🇺🇸🇸🇬
Authorities arrest man allegedly running ‘likely world’s largest ever’ cybercrime botnet – AP 🇺🇸🇸🇬
ASEAN chief Kao Kim Hourn says South China Sea code to be concluded by 2025 – Nikkei Asia: ‘Kim Hourn’s confidence was recently echoed by one ASEAN member state. Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Roi Sumirat said Wednesday that the negotiations had reached a “new stage” with the recent round of talks held in March.’
Philippines and Brunei sign deal on closer maritime cooperation, with eye on Beijing in South China Sea – SCMP 🇵🇭🇧🇳
China denounces US deployment of mid-range missile system in Philippines – Xinhua 🇵🇭🇺🇸
Xi Jinping Boulevard in Phnom Penh a ‘new milestone’ in Chinese-Cambodian relations – SCMP 🇰🇭
China and Japan agree to restart ruling party talks after six-year hiatus – Reuters 🇯🇵
Rare spat shows China and North Korea still at odds on nuclear weapons – Reuters: ‘Even though Beijing helped tone down the [trilateral] statement by advocating mention of the peninsula rather than the North specifically, that was enough to raise its neighbour's hackles, one analyst said.’ 🇰🇵
China lifts most remaining trade bans on Australian beef exports – AAP 🇦🇺
China economie
Exclusive: China is poised to slap a record fine on PwC and suspend some of its local operations over its role in Evergrande 恒大’s alleged financial fraud case, sources say – Bloomberg
PwC faces defections by Hong Kong, mainland China clients amid concerns about China Evergrande 中国恒大 accusations – SCMP
Chinese companies rush to hike dividends and buy back shares in Japan-style reform – Reuters
China binnenland
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets representatives attending national conference on public security work – Xinhua: ‘the room was filled with warm applause’
Locals-only hotels in China fret over rule change to accept foreigners – The Straits Times
Hong Kong
14 prodemocratische activisten schuldig bevonden in groot strafproces in Hongkong – NRC
14 Hong Kong democrats convicted of subversion conspiracy in landmark national security trial, 2 cleared – HKFP: ‘They stood accused of planning to use legislative powers to indiscriminately veto bills’
Hong Kong justice department to launch appeal bid against 2 democrats cleared of subversion charge – HKFP
Taiwan: ‘You Never Know When You Might Cross the Line’ – Domino Theory: ‘Taiwanese artists working in China have long been compelled to engage in political self-censorship. Now that climate of fear has spread to Hong Kong’ 🇹🇼
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China’s military says Taiwan drills met goals but it is ready for further action – Reuters
‘Taiwan independence’ means war, says Chinese defence spokesperson – Xinhua: ‘stressing that China’s reunification is an irreversible trend of history.’ 🇨🇳
PLA actions to continue if ‘Taiwan independence’ provocations go on, Taiwan Affairs spokesperson says – Xinhua 🇨🇳
Taiwan says China is ‘nibbling away’ at its space, trying to create a new normal – Reuters 🇨🇳
Taiwan says China drills more about intimidation and propaganda than starting war – Reuters 🇨🇳
China’s drills appear to be ‘rehearsal’ for Taiwan invasion, US admiral says – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸🇨🇳
Already-arranged group tours to China to go ahead – Taipei Times: ‘after it reversed a previous decision to reopen Taiwan to cross-strait tour groups.’ 🇨🇳
McCaul calls on Taiwan to increase its defence budget – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
Second US congressional group in Taiwan since Lai’s inauguration – Focus Taiwan: ‘Senators Tammy Duckworth, Dan Sullivan, Chris Coons’ 🇺🇸
Lai pledges to fight authoritarianism – Taipei Times 🇺🇸
US states New York and Louisiana pass pro-Taiwan resolutions – Taipei Times 🇺🇸
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Taiwan government to reject contested parliament reforms – Reuters: ‘Taiwan’s cabinet will reject and send back for review’
‘The DPP, and many of the protesters, have repeatedly accused the KMT of being in league with Beijing in trying to ram through the legislation.’
Premier Cho Jung-tai 卓榮泰 vows to return contentious bills to legislature – Taipei Times: ‘Under Article 3 of the Additional Articles of the Constitution, the Cabinet can return a bill to the legislature for reconsideration within 10 days of its submission if it deems it difficult to execute.’
Reform bills fail to reflect public expectations, Presidential Office says – Focus Taiwan
Editorial: The Taiwan parliament’s excessive power grab – The FT View: ‘There is a real risk they could be used by lawmakers from the Kuomintang or other opposition parties to pursue personal vendettas against political opponents.’ ‘There are security issues too.’
Lai Ching-te 賴清德’s tumultuous first ten days as Taiwan’s president signal he’s going to be more hamstrung than his predecessor in bolstering the island’s defences – Bloomberg
Government agency warns of cost of KMT’s east coast plans – Taipei Times: ‘the staggering amount could crowd out other projects’
Police do not track protesters, lawmakers told – Taipei Times
Emergency import scheme initiated to address IV fluid shortage in Taiwan – Focus Taiwan
TPP wants to abolish Control Yuan, legislator says – Taipei Times: ‘KMT opinions were split between KMT caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (傅崑萁), who voiced support for the motion, and the KMT Central Committee, which stated that the separation of powers is based on the framework crafted by Republic of China founder Sun Yat-sen (孫逸仙).’
Court rules in favour of trans man’s ID card gender change request – Focus Taiwan
Quality concerns over Taiwan’s international student drive – Times Higher Education
DGBAS raises GDP forecast for Taiwan to 3.94% – Taipei Times