De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 3 november: toenadering VS en China, ASML en techmissies
Tijdens hun Sharp China-podcast bespraken Andrew Sharp en Bill Bishop de recente serie publiek gemaakte incidenten waarbij Chinese vliegtuigen en schepen bewust rakelings langs die van de Amerikanen, Filipijnen en andere buren scheerden. Alleen al op basis van kansberekening is het goed mogelijk dat het een keer mis gaat. Als er de komende dagen een escalerend ongeluk gebeurt, dan is het hier. (China heeft nu overigens ook onrust aan de grens met Myanmar, waar rebellen terreinwinst boeken.)
Ik vraag me ook af wat (of welk onderdeel van de partijstaat) erachter zit. Elders zien we namelijk al weken actieve pogingen van China en de Verenigde Staten om het diplomatieke verkeer te herstellen. Na enkele bezoeken van Amerikaanse functionarissen aan China, is Wang Yi naar de VS geweest en gaan er nu blijkbaar meer ambtenaren heen en weer. Ook verscheen er een commentaar in het Volksdagblad dat opriep constructief samen te werken en zien we al tijden in China de nadruk op de Flying Tigers en andersoortige voor Peking positieve elementen van de betrekking.
We moeten niet te veel verwachten van de aanstaande ontmoeting tussen Biden en Xi. Het kan ook zijn dat men wil laten zien aan de wereld het in ieder geval geprobeerd te hebben. Van het Filipijnse schip dat aan het vergaan is in de Zuid-Chinese Zee tot de verkiezingen in Taiwan: er zijn een aantal mogelijke flashpoints in de komende weken.
Maar juist dan is het ook wel een goed teken dat Peking en Washington DC de moeite doen. Biden heeft door dat de VS het niet kan veroorloven als escalateur neer te worden gezet, en naast dat men in Peking hopelijk de afgrond ook op heeft zien doemen heeft China ook genoeg economische beslommeringen aan het hoofd. En nogmaals: we gaan een onzekere tijd tegemoet met alle verkiezingen in 2024.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
„ASML is de premium die Europa aan de VS verschuldigd is” – IO 🇳🇱
Boekrecensie: Hoe het ‘relatief obscure’ ASML in een geopolitieke storm belandde – FD 🇳🇱
ASML China to focus on maintenance and service, president says – Yicai Global 🇳🇱
Al die machines die nog snel voor het ingaan van de beperkingen zijn verkocht, moeten natuurlijk wel onderhouden worden.
Netherlands to send warship to patrol South China with Philippines next year – Business World 🇳🇱
Betekenis van ‘patrol … with’ is nog in overleg, ik verwacht dat het hoogstens invulling van PASEX krijgt, m.a.w. fotomoment en weer doorvaren.
Top Chinese diplomat Wáng Yì 王毅 meets senior Czech official Tomas Pojar – Xinhua 🇨🇿
‘Foreign Policy Committee of Danish Parliament just visited #China. Good to see frequent China-#Europe parliamentary exchanges recently. Such exchange helps increase mutual understanding and trust between our two sides.’ – Wang Lutong, Twitter 🇩🇰
Lithuanian official hails economic relations with Taiwan – Taipei Times 🇱🇹
Tech War 💽💥
Rutte promoot Nederlandse hightech al fietsend door de hoofdstad van Vietnam – de Volkskrant 🇳🇱
‘Samen met vijfentwintig Nederlandse bedrijven was ik vandaag in Maleisië. Ondernemers die kansen zien om hier samen te werken op nieuwe terreinen van hoogwaardige technologie, zoals halfgeleiders en op traditioneel sterkte sectoren al water- en klimaatadaptatie.’ – Mark Rutte, Twitter 🇳🇱
Singapore is alsnog overgeslagen, maar zal nu iets anders denken over het verhaal dat Rutte overweldigd door actualiteiten moest afzeggen.
Waarom heeft Nederland nog geen batterijfabriek? „We hebben alles, behalve geld en aandacht” – Trouw 🇳🇱
Europe faces hurdles in breaking free of China EV supply chain – Nikkei Asia: ‘Europe is lagging in automotive battery production.’ 🇪🇺
US gave US$30 million [€28m] to top Chinese scientist leading China’s AI ‘race’ – Newsweek: ‘even as he set up a parallel institute near Wuhan, took a position at a Beijing university whose primary goal is to support Chinese military research, and joined a Chinese Communist Party “talent plan”’
Costs of US chip restrictions force YMTC into major fundraising round – FT: ‘after burning through $7bn [€6.6bn] in funding over the past year trying to adapt’
UK, US, EU, and China sign declaration of AI’s ‘catastrophic’ danger – The Guardian
US lawmakers press Biden for plans on Chinese use of open chip technology RISC-V – Reuters
Taiwanese government launches NT$300bn [€8.75bn] plan to support chips and AI – Taipei Times
US officials visit Taiwan to promote CHIPS Act benefits, AIT says – Taipei Times
Taiwan’s Foxconn (Hon Hai 鴻海) bets that making EVs can power its next decade of growth. But entering a new industry doesn’t come without challenges – Bloomberg Businessweek
Talent Taiwan Office one-stop service for foreign professionals launches – Focus Taiwan
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Europe is still the soft underbelly of the west – Janan Ganesh for FT: ‘There is a vein of European thought that tends to seek accommodation with whatever is the most presentable counterweight to “Anglo-Saxon” power.’
Europe Letter: European credibility in the Middle East is in ashes – The Irish Times: ‘Some describe it as the worst blow to relations between the West and the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.’
Israel, Gaza, and why talk of ‘double standards’ is trending on the Chinese internet – SCMP
Shipping industry steers container production away from China – FT
Japan to invite Central Asian foreign ministers to G7 meeting next week – Nikkei Asia
China en de Verenigde Staten 🇨🇳🇺🇸
Long-time ‘Asia hand’ Kurt Campbell nominated for No 2 at US State Department – SCMP
US economic approach to China must be ‘serious, clear-eyed’, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says – SCMP
Yellen: Indo-Pacific allies should not have to choose between US and China – Reuters
China says official to lead a delegation for China-US nuclear talks – Reuters
US says to hold climate talks with China in California ahead of COP28 – AFP
US farm leaders, visiting China, talk up agriculture trade – Reuters
Federal prosecutor raises alarm about Chinese election interference in California – POLITICO
US targets China, Turkey and UAE in latest Russia sanctions – FT
When Xi and Biden talk at Apec, managing Taiwan will top the agenda – SCMP
Het jammere is dat dit soort stukken nooit meenemen wat de Taiwanezen zelf willen in de vaste contextparagraafjes.
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
They propelled China’s rise. Now they have nothing to fall back on. – The New York Times: ‘Now that times are tough and jobs harder to find, China’s roughly 300 million migrant workers, with flimsy social benefits, have little to fall back on. They don’t enjoy the same health insurance, unemployment and retirement benefits as city-born people, as threadbare as their safety net is. Once migrant workers pass their prime working age, they are expected to go back to their home villages so they won’t become burdens to the cities.’
The breakdown of China’s social contract – FT: ‘In the place of growth and opportunity are vague promises of security and “a better life”.’
Israel’s close economic ties with China worked well—until the Gaza conflict – SCMP
Putin and Xi meet as hidden differences mount – Pavel K. Baev for PRIO
Xi Jinping is trying to fuse the ideologies of Marx and Confucius – The Economist
Podcasts
Sharp China: Li Keqiang and the Mourning Playbook; Wang Yi in DC and Xi to APEC; Gavin Newsom Goes to China; Rahm Emanuel and Resource Extraction – Andrew Sharp en Bill Bishop for
🍎 🤖Eerste podcast van de maand is buiten de betaalmuur. Met goede uitleg over de Verenigd Front-strategie achter het voor China erg succesvolle bezoek van de Californische gouverneur Gavin Newsom.
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 calls for deescalation and ceasefire in Gaza in phone call with Jordan – Xinhua: ‘Wang said China strongly denounces attacks on refugee camps in the Gaza Strip.’
Chinese and Omani foreign ministers discuss Israeli-Palestinian conflict over phone –Xinhua: ‘the root cause of the Palestinian issue is that the legitimate rights and interests of the Palestinian people have not been restored and guaranteed’
China's veteran climate envoy Xiè Zhènhuá 解振华 to step down in December, according to government source – Reuters: ‘will be replaced by Liu Zhenmin, a former Chinese vice-foreign minister and United Nations Under-Secretary General’
China and Japan coast guards face off again near disputed Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands – Reuters
Philippines accuses China of intruding into its waters – Reuters
Luister ook de Sharp China-podcast over de grote zorgen over de enorme risico’s die China neemt door zo absurd dichtbij Amerikaanse vliegtuigen te komen.
Met bezoek Australische premier aan China lijkt handelsoorlog voorbij – NRC
Junta Myanmar verliest terrein aan de Chinese grens – NRC
China calls for a ceasefire along its border in Myanmar, where a rebel group says it has seized several towns – Bloomberg
Biggest Chinese Antarctic fleet sets off to build research station – Reuters
China Railway will negotiate a concession to operate a line connecting Zambia’s copper-mining heartland with the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam – Bloomberg: ‘The railway may compete with a new one that the US is helping Zambia to build that will connect the so-called copperbelt with an existing line running to the Angolan port of Lobito.’
China economie
China’s state security ministry takes swipe at ‘some countries’ trying to disrupt financial system – SCMP
Met al deze theorieën van MSS over wat buitenlandse mogendheden wel niet zouden mobiliseren tegen China, kun je niet anders dan je afvragen of er sprake is van enige projectie…
Evergrande 恒大 proposes offshore creditors get 30% equity stake in subsidiaries – Reuters
China binnenland
Halloweenvierders in Shanghai opgepakt wegens ‘coronapakken’ en andere politiek getinte kostuums – de Volkskrant
Remains of Lǐ Kèqiáng 李克强 cremated in Beijing – Xinhua
Lǐ Kèqiáng 李克强 funeral in China brings out crowds despite suppression effort – The Guardian
Why Chinese mourn Lǐ Kèqiáng 李克强: Missing the Communist Party that sought legitimacy through technocratic performance – The Economist’s Chaguan
China’s 2023 wave of ministry-level leadership shakeups rolls on in October – Caixin Global
Hong Kong
Beijing’s crackdown fails to dim Hong Kong’s luster, as talent scheme lures mainland Chinese – AP: ‘For mainland Chinese, Hong Kong’s unique attributes — such as wider freedom of speech and internet access, its cosmopolitan ambiance, a less oppressive work culture, and a society where ability largely trumps connections — set it apart’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
PRC attack on Taiwan unlikely in near term, says National Security Council secretary-general Wellington Koo 顧立雄 – Taipei Times: ‘The Chinese leadership is divided into two camps regarding the country’s overall strategy, he said.’
Dozens of Chinese PLA planes detected near Taiwan amid aircraft carrier drills – Focus Taiwan
[China] and Taiwan hold talks on agricultural and fishing cooperation in Guangxi – Xinhua
[China] and Taiwan entrepreneurs discuss cross-Strait integrated development in Kunming – Xinhua: ‘Taiwan business representatives noted that being able to participate in the great cause of national reunification and rejuvenation is the responsibility of their generation’
US and Canadian naval vessels make ‘routine’ transit of Taiwan Strait – Focus Taiwan
Taiwanese doctor among foreign nationals evacuated from Gaza, says foreign minister – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan verkiezingen
Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) says Taiwan’s US envoy Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴 tops his list of potential running mates – Focus Taiwan: ‘would only reveal his decision after the DPP announces its list of at-large legislator candidates.’
TPP’s Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 outlines energy policy platform – Focus Taiwan: ‘calling for sustainable energy transition and the extended use of two nuclear power plants that have been or are scheduled to be decommissioned.’
甩開侯友宜!柯文哲今赴「信義富邦」與郭台銘午餐會 兩人談話內容曝 – 自由時報
Taiwan’s presidential rivals seek a deal in bid for power – FT: ‘“The challenge here . . . is that Taiwan has a presidential system with the president wielding a large amount of power,” Templeman said. “Ko can get all kinds of promises from the KMT before the election, but they are not credible unless he has a way to enforce them.”’
‘Templeman said that a Lai victory with a hung parliament would give China an added incentive to work with Taiwan’s opposition, while cold-shouldering the DPP president.’
Independent presidential hopeful Terry Gou 郭台銘 submits 1 million petition signatures – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan is investigating suspected bribes connected to Foxconn founder Terry Gou 郭台銘’s presidential campaign, as the billionaire gathers signatures to run in next year’s election – Bloomberg
KMT suspends Central Committee member who campaigned for Terry Gou 郭台銘, expels suspended member after signature drive arrest – Focus Taiwan
290.000 handtekeningen zijn nodig als je niet kandidaat bent namens een partij die de vorige verkiezingen een bepaald percentage heeft gehaald. Als Gou wordt afgewezen omdat een deel van zijn handtekeningen niet authentiek blijken, kan hij zich altijd nog achter de oppositiekandidaten scharen en kiescommissie beschuldigen van ‘DPP-corruptie’ o.i.d.
Taiwan News Poll of Polls – Courtney Donovan Smith: ‘overall the race has remained fairly stable in the last few weeks, though independent candidate Terry Gou (郭台銘) has continued to slowly sink in the polls.’
賴清德民調下滑現危機?黃揚明曝2關鍵「別小看」:很多在野陣營誤判情勢 – 風傳媒:「針對《美麗島電子報》民調顯示,國民黨支持者表態率創近半年新高,首次超過2成;而民眾黨支持者上月不到10%,這個月則升至12.3%。黃揚明說明,2黨的支持者在民進黨落難時更願意表態,民進黨則相對不表態,因此趨勢接近,但並沒有崩盤,以中間選民來看,支持賴清德的也超過2成,遠超國民黨總統參選人侯友宜近9%。」
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Skulls of Paiwan warriors taken by Japanese after 1874 battle to be returned to Taiwan from Edinburgh University – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s Chunghwa Telecom should reconsider Hong Kong roaming link, says regulator NCC – Taipei Times: ‘as the service has become a loophole in the government’s efforts to curb telephone scams and safeguard national security’
Veel Taiwanezen blijven nog altijd betrokken bij telefoonfraude gericht op Chineessprekenden.