De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 28 maart: EU in Peking, Chinese kliklijn Taiwan
Al dagen gaan er geruchten rond dat een van de hoogste twee Chinese militairen, He Weidong, in de problemen zou zijn. Dat zal nu toenemen: als antwoord op een vraag hierover zei het Chinese ministerie van defensie dat ze geen commentaar hadden. Toen er soortgelijke (maar uiteindelijke onjuiste) geruchten rondgingen over defensieminister Dong Jun werden ze gelijk ontkend…
De eurocommissaris voor handel Maroš Šefčovič was in Peking na zijn bezoek aan Washington. In zijn gesprek met de vicepremier die over handel gaat, He Lifeng, sprak hij zich uit voor mogelijkheden om de banden tussen EU en China te verdiepen – volgens insiders in SCMP een signaal van Brussel dat het openstaat voor een ‘geloofwaardige’ bod van China.
Het verkeer tussen Europa en China is momenteel druk. Bij de aankomende ontmoeting van Xi Jinping met Westerse bedrijfsleiders komen volgens Reuters ook de bazen van BMW en Mercedes langs. Een Chinese viceminister van buitenlandse zaken was in Polen. De Franse buitenlandminister in Peking sprak drie strategische dialogen met China af voor dit jaar. Andere mensen maakten ook geluiden.
Er zijn duidelijk pogingen om te kijken of er, tegen de achtergrond van Trump, iets mogelijk is voor Europa en China. In eerdere nieuwsbrieven en ook weer vandaag komen mensen langs die zeggen Peking toch echt niet openstaat voor substantiële toezeggingen buiten de charme en retoriek. Al die bezoeken van welwillende Europeanen aan China kunnen dan in ieder geval het leerzame doel dienen om ze herinneren aan de onbuigzaamheid van marxisten die overtuigd zijn dat hun wetenschappelijk bepaald historisch moment nu aanbreekt.
Bloomberg en The New York Times hebben beide een stuk over de manier waarop Peking de onrust in Washington met beloning en straf uitbuit in de Indo-Pacific. Een van de plekken waar de druk toeneemt is de Straat van Taiwan. De meeste recente stap is de aankondiging door de Chinese overheid van een klik-emailadres voor Taiwanese onafhankelijkheidsmisdadigers en -medeplichtigen. Er zouden al een driehonderdtal namen zijn doorgegeven, waaronder hoge politici van de regerende DPP en publieke figuren.
De Chinese aankondiging heeft deels verband met de toegenomen activiteit van de Taiwanese overheid om dingen te benoemen en de weerbaarheid van het land te sterken. President Lai Ching-te heeft te maken met een politiek probleem omdat hij geen meerderheid heeft in het parlement. Er lopen campagnes om oppositieparlementsleden van de KMT te herroepen via ‘recall elections’. Dat geeft Lai ook politieke redenen om het gevaar van China te benadrukken.
Maar in vergelijking met voorganger Tsai Ing-wen is het ook oprecht zo dat Lai een veel grotere actuele dreiging ziet in Chinese ondermijning die nu actie vereist. Zijn defensieminister heeft grote praktische stappen gezet. Op andere vlakken probeert men ook aan de weg te bouwen. Je zou kunnen zeggen dat met toespraken de bevolking bewust maken en mobiliseren ook een onderdeel van weerbaarheid is.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Huawei corruption scandal: Police search European Parliament Strasbourg offices – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
L’ancien Premier ministre belge Yves Leterme a travaillé comme consultant pour Huawei 华为 de 2019 – La Libre : « Il y a quelques années, Yves Leterme était coprésident d’un fonds d’investissement chinois, ToJoy. » 🇧🇪
Chinese security firm Nuctech 同方威视 loses appeal against EU inspection – Reuters: ‘The company had some of its offices raided by EU competition regulators in 2024’ 🇪🇺🇳🇱🇵🇱
EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič says bloc seeks to deepen cooperation with China – SCMP: ‘during a meeting with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng, an account by Xinhua News Agency said.‘ ‘The European Commission did not publish an account of the meeting.’ 🇪🇺
‘intended to send a message to China that Brussels was open to credible offers.’
China’s economy tsar Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 invites EU trade chief to jointly resist tariff threats – Reuters: ‘“We have mutual interest in addressing our bilateral and global issues as well as our differences,” Sefcovic wrote in an X post about his meeting with He.’ 🇪🇺
China and Europe ‘share same worry’ about unilateralism and can work together, European Stability Mechanism managing director says – SCMP: ‘Gramegna was part of a delegation from the ESM that was in the Chinese capital since week for a regular visit’ 🇪🇺
Opinion: Hope Europe makes a rational choice to turn further toward China – The Global Times: ‘“There is a growing trend in Europe where countries like Portugal, Spain and Hungary, traditionally more pragmatic toward China, are increasingly exploring deeper ties with China,” an anonymous international relations expert told the Global Times.’ 🇪🇺
Europe will have to zip its lip over China’s abuses – The Economist’s The Telegram: ‘The word among European diplomats in Beijing is that China wants warmer relations. “The problem is they want them for free,” says one. Chinese officials reportedly brush aside European complaints’ 🇪🇺
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 to meet with BMW, Mercedes, and Qualcomm CEOs, sources say – Reuters 🇩🇪
China’s top intelligence agency briefs German diplomats and business community on anti-espionage law – SCMP: ‘In a statement posted on social media on Wednesday, the Ministry of State Security said the recent presentation was an effort to introduce and clarify the law.’ 🇩🇪
China and France to hold three high-level strategic and economic dialogues this year – Reuters: ‘Wang met French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot on Thursday morning’ 🇫🇷
Full text: Joint Statement between the People’s Republic of China and the French Republic on Climate Change on the occasion of the Tenth Anniversary of the Paris Agreement – Xinhua 🇫🇷
‘More EU China engagement - this time in Poland Vice foreign minister Ma Zhaoxu met with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski in Warsaw’ – Finbarr Bermingham, Bluesky 🇵🇱
Czech government blocks Chinese investment over spy fears – Euractiv: ‘The Beijing-based company Emposat had planned to operate a satellite ground station in the village of Vlkoš in South Moravia.’ 🇨🇿
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📉💥
Von der Leyen vows EU will protect its interests as Trump announces huge car tariffs – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Trump threatens EU and Canada with even bigger tariffs as trade war snowballs – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺🇨🇦
Chinese vergelding om Trumps heffingen helpt gasprijs in Europa omlaag– FD 🇪🇺
China is suffering its own ‘China shock’ – FT: ‘a painful shift away from low-cost, labour-intensive production that could leave millions of older, lower skilled workers in the lurch.’
‘Western nations overcame China shock in part by developing consumption-powered economies and vibrant services industries. However, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made clear that “new quality productive forces” — or advanced manufacturing — will remain core to the country’s growth model.’
Een groot kenmerk van de China Shock in de VS was grote regionale ongelijkheid in de negatieve effecten. China heeft ook nog vele regio’s die achterlopen op de rijke gebieden die je ziet in het nieuws of op vakantie. De vraag is wat daar mee gaat gebeuren in dit nieuwe groeimodel – een reden waarom Xi nog niet klaar zou kunnen zijn met het oude. Maar stijgende kosten, concurrentie uit Zuid(oost)-Azië en een verouderende beroepsbevolking gaan het lastig maken.
US trade chief Greer and Chinese vice premier Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 express ‘candid’ concerns on trade tensions during introductory meeting – Reuters 🇺🇸
China to advance follow-up procedures of WTO case after US accepts tariff consultations, commerce ministry says – Xinhua 🇺🇸
Trump says he may give China reduction in tariffs to get TikTok deal done – Reuters: ‘Trump said he was willing to extend the April deadline if an agreement over the social media app was not reached.’ 🇺🇸
China rebuffs Trump offer of tariff concessions if Beijing agrees TikTok deal – AFP 🇺🇸
Taiwan plans response to Trump tariffs with energy imports and tariff cuts – Reuters: ‘Taking lawmakers questions in parliament, Taiwan’s deputy economy minister Cynthia Kiang said a specially created trade task force had “preliminary plans”’ 🇺🇸
PM Carney says China does not share Canada’s values on trade – Reuters 🇨🇦
Techoorlog 💽💥
Commissioner Virkkunen confirms a European Chips Act 2.0 and outlines AI action plan – Euractiv 🇪🇺
Europarlementariërs waarschuwen voor versoepeling AI-wet: „Ondemocratisch en gevaarlijk” – de Volkskrant 🇪🇺
AI-rapporteur Kim van Sparrentak (GroenLinks-PvdA/Groenen-S&D): „Europese Commissie laat haar oren hangen naar techoligarchen en Trump” – NRC 🇪🇺
ByteDance 字节跳动’s TikTok Shop steps up Europe expansion with US future unclear – Reuters: ‘will launch to users in France, Germany, and Italy on Monday’ 🇪🇺
Tesla’s full self-driving trial in China delayed by regulatory checks – Caixin Global 🇺🇸
US commerce ministry adds dozens of Chinese entities to export restrictions list, including Inspur 浪潮 units – Reuters: ‘China’s leading cloud computing and big data service provider’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan economic affairs ministry to probe local unit of China’s Inspur 浪潮 added to US blacklist – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼
Apple’s Tim Cook meets top Chinese officials in charm offensive but offers no AI update – SCMP 🇺🇸
Nvidia’s China sales face threat from Beijing’s environmental curbs – FT: ‘For several months, the Chinese regulator has quietly discouraged the country’s tech giants such as Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent from purchasing H20 chips’ 🇺🇸
China’s H3C 新华三 warns of Nvidia AI chip shortage amid surging demand – Reuters: ‘“H20’s international supply chain faces significant uncertainties,” the company said in Tuesday’s notice, adding that current inventory was nearly depleted.’ 🇺🇸
Leaked data exposes a Chinese AI censorship machine – TechCrunch: ‘133,000 examples fed into a sophisticated large language model that’s designed to automatically flag any piece of content considered sensitive by the Chinese government.’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Antwoord op vragen van het lid Boswijk (CDA) over de noodzaak voor het opstellen van een Amerikastrategie – minister Veldkamp (NSC), Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal
President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 is making China’s presence more felt across the Indo-Pacific region by testing US allies on sensitive issues, as Donald Trump’s attention is taken up elsewhere – Bloomberg: ‘Beijing is ramping up efforts to project power in the region.’ 🇺🇸
China is courting, and confronting, US allies made uneasy by Trump – The New York Times: ‘“Beijing may be trying to see what it can get away with,” hoping to establish a new norm for its operations in the region, said Ja Ian Chong’ 🇺🇸
China’s aid agency steps in after Trump administration cancels two USAID projects in Cambodia intended to help children – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
Russian Navy submarine launches missiles in Sea of Japan drills, TASS agency reports – Reuters 🇷🇺🇯🇵
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Can Europe do a ‘reverse Deng’ with China? – François Godement: ‘In other words, a reverse Deng deal between China and the European Union may be the worst of prospects, except any other course.’ 🇪🇺
Chinese state hacking is becoming bigger, better, and stealthier – The Economist
China’s impatient state capital impedes the innovations it aims to promote – Jackson Martin for The Diplomat: ‘it turns out that the political incentives facing state-backed GGFs are simply not conducive to patience. This is largely due to the decentralization of GGFs among subprovincial governments.’
De Chinese reputatie voor langetermijnplannen komt van de grote lijnen die de centrale overheid aanhoudt – lokale overheden zijn juist berucht om kortetermijndenken o.a. vanwege de kwantitatieve indicatoren die de promotie of demotie bepalen van lokale partijkaders (gemiddelde duur post is onder Xi gedaald naar 2–3 jaar).
China’s new economic coercion toolkit – Jim Mullinax in The Diplomat: ‘since the fall of 2024, we’ve seen a shift in how China is using these tools to send warnings to U.S. (and other) policymakers and companies.’
China's dream of becoming a football superpower lies in tatters – BBC News
The Chinese Communist Party’s Ultimate Taboo: Fang Fang’s newly translated novel uncovers the brutal, buried history of land reform in China – Ian Johnson for The Atlantic
Taiwan’s recall movement: power play or popular outrage? – Focus Taiwan
Constitutional Court deadlock: A looming crisis in Taiwan – Focus Taiwan
Podcasts
How China sees Europe during Trump 2.0, with Grzegorz Stec – MERICS China Podcast 🍎
US-China artificial intelligence competition: A conversation with Dr Jeffrey Ding – CSIS ChinaPower Podcast 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China has told state-owned firms to hold off on any new collaboration with businesses linked to Li Ka-shing 李嘉誠 and his family – Bloomberg: ‘Under the directive, state enterprises wouldn’t immediately get approval for business activities linked to the tycoon. The regulators are also reviewing what investments the family has in China and abroad’ 🇺🇸
Li Ka-shing 李嘉誠’s CK Hutchison 長江和記實業 gets another Beijing warning over Panama ports sale – SCMP: ‘The article, published by [Beijing-backed] newspaper Ta Kung Pao on Wednesday, was the third about Hutchison’s port deal the Beijing offices have shared in full in the past two weeks’ 🇺🇸
CK Hutchison 長江和記實業’s plan to sell two Panama ports to a BlackRock-led group is moving ahead as scheduled – Bloomberg 🇺🇸🇵🇦
How Elon Musk’s US military contractor SpaceX secretly allows investment from China – ProPublica: ‘buy stakes in the company as long as the funds are routed through the Cayman Islands or other offshore secrecy hubs’ 🇺🇸
Inside Maye Musk’s cozy relationship with China – Wired 🇺🇸
Chinese and US militaries advancing exchanges progressing as planned, Chinese defence ministry says – Xinhua 🇺🇸
Bo'ao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2025 opens in Hainan – Xinhua
China Focus: Vice premier Dīng Xuēxiáng 丁薛祥 calls for safeguarding free trade at Bo'ao annual conference – Xinhua
Xinhua Headlines: China boosts global confidence for win-win cooperation – Xinhua
Xinhua Headlines: Bo'ao forum sends reassuring message to unstable and uncertain world – Xinhua
South Korea installs platform to monitor Chinese presence in Yellow Sea – Reuters: ‘a “reciprocal” platform in a disputed area of the Yellow Sea, known in Seoul as the West Sea, where China has increasingly built structures’ 🇰🇷
Japan goes on the offensive with Joint Operations Command, China’s PLA Daily claims – SCMP: ‘The launch of the command points to new phase of integration with US armed forces, military mouthpiece says’ 🇯🇵
Pakistan and China government in talks about security for Chinese nationals – Reuters: ‘Beijing has been pushing Pakistan to allow its own security staff to provide protection to thousands of Chinese citizens working there, frustrated by the string of attacks on its citizens.’ 🇵🇰
Singapore DPM Heng Swee Keat 王瑞杰 meets China’s Vice-President Hán Zhèng 韩正 in Beijing – The Straits Times 🇸🇬
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation military meeting held in east China’s Qingdao – Xinhua
China economie
China’s stimulus spurs cautious growth upgrades at global banks as trade risks loom – WSJ: ‘Some of the revisions came shortly after China last week reported surprisingly robust economic data for the start of the year’
China’s finance ministry ramped up debt issuance this quarter, a move that both signals authorities’ priority on stimulating growth and efforts to prevent a repeat of an overheated bond market – Bloomberg
Wasteful local investments drain China’s economy and undermine government credibility, state media Economic Daily 经济日报 commentary says – SCMP: ‘as it put its weight behind national efforts to stimulate domestic demand.’
China doubles down on austerity, but not with a Trump-style Doge approach – SCMP: ‘On Tuesday, People’s Daily, the Communist Party mouthpiece, published a long front-page article recapping an eight-point code of conduct outlined by President Xi Jinping in December 2012.’
China demand slump hits earnings at top consumer goods companies – Nikkei Asia
China’s industrial profits fall in January-February as economic risks mount – Reuters
Tianqi Lithium 天齐锂业 warned volatility in lithium product prices and growing geopolitical risks may cloud its outlook as it swung to its first full-year loss since 2020 amid a prolonged battery-metal rout – Bloomberg
Cnooc 中海油集团 posts higher annual earnings, as growth in energy output offset weaker prices – Bloomberg
China binnenland
China’s defence ministry says it was ‘unaware’ of reports that the nation’s no. 3 military official Hé Wèidōng 何卫东 had been detained, as rumours swirl he’s been placed under investigation for corruption – Boomberg: ‘Last year, China swiftly denied reports that Defense Minister Dong Jun was being probed at a similar Defense Ministry briefing, calling such claims “pure fabrication.”’
Geen harde ontkenning van de geruchten, wat wel het (achteraf correcte) geval was bij Dong Jun…
China’s government keeps finding more farmland – Dim Sums: ‘There is no explanation for why the rising trend in sown area bears little correspondence to the up-and-down jumps in the cultivated land statistics after various surveys.’
China has set softer emissions rules for the three industries it plans to add to its carbon market in 2025 – Bloomberg
Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s Democratic Party 民主黨 to hold members’ vote on disbandment next month – HKFP: ‘more than a month after Hong Kong’s biggest pro-democracy party announced that it was inclined to dissolve due to the “overall political environment.”’
Hong Kong security chief Chris Tang 鄧炳強 slams Ming Pao 明報 for defending reporter who asked why official’s Thailand trip was not announced – HKFP: ‘Over the past two years, the Hong Kong government has lashed out at Ming Pao over news reports, opinion pieces, and satirical cartoons.’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China opent kliklijn om Taiwan-sympathie aan banden te leggen – NOS
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office launches online platform to report ‘Taiwan independence’ activities – Xinhua: ‘for the public to report vile acts by those advocating “Taiwan independence” and their accomplices in persecuting Taiwan compatriots’
‘Certain “Taiwan independence” organizations, separatist elements, officials, and online influencers have acted as enforcers and accomplices, abetting wrongdoing and facilitating aggression, he said, expressing grave concern and pledging severe punishment.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council warns about China’s Taiwan Affairs Office e-mail portal tactics – Taipei Times: ‘As of 5pm on Wednesday, the TAO said it had received 323 e-mails about people such as Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang (劉世芳) and YouTuber Pa Chiung (八炯).’
‘Other politicians and officials named in reports include Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators Puma Shen (沈伯洋) and Huang Jie (黃捷), DPP caucus chief executive Rosalia Wu (吳思瑤) and Taipei Prosecutor Lin Ta (林達), TAO spokesman Chen Binhua (陳斌華) said.
Complaints have also been lodged against public figures such as United Microelectronics Corp founder Robert Tsao (曹興誠), the financial backer of nonprofit civil defense organization Kuma Academy, and Taiwanese rapper Chen Po-yuan (陳柏源), he added.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwanese navy vessel collides with Chinese fishing boat – Focus Taiwan: ‘in the early hours of Thursday in waters off central Taiwan’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan-based publisher Fucha 富察 (Li Yanhe 李延賀) of Gūsa Publishing sentenced to 3 years for inciting secession in China – Focus Taiwan: ‘after the Shanghai First Intermediate People’s Court found him guilty of “inciting to split the country.”’ 🇨🇳
Four ex-servicemen found guilty of selling documents to China operative – Focus Taiwan: ‘indicted in December 2024 on national security and corruption charges.’ ‘the first three suspects were members of the 211th Military Police Battalion, which guards the Presidential Office, while the fourth served in the MND's Information, Communications and Electronic Force Command.’ 🇨🇳
Three pro-China party members get prison for national security violations – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
Taiwanese defence ministry to channel World War Two spirit with 80th anniversary commemorations to bolster response to China’s threats – Reuters: ‘“On the signing of all World War Two documents it is the Republic of China there and absolutely not the People’s Republic of China,” [spokesperson] Lou said. “This is an indisputable fact.”’ 🇨🇳
Two more Chinese influencers told to leave Taiwan by Monday – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Academics protest revoking Chinese influence Yaya’s Taiwan residency permit – Taipei Times: ‘Society’s silent acquiescence was key to the rise of Nazi Germany, it said’ 🇨🇳
Senior Taiwan defence official to visit US for fighter jet ceremony – Reuters 🇺🇸
Taiwan weerbaarheid
Donovan’s Deep Dives: Taiwan forges a new national security while facing the ghosts of martial law – Courtney Donovan Smith for Taipei Times: ‘It did not appear that Tsai [Ing-wen] fully understood that as far as the CCP is concerned they are already engaged in a whole-of-society, “unrestricted” war with Taiwan and the West, which requires a calibrated response. Lai [Ching-te] understands this. In June of last year, he convened a Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience (WOSR) Committee.’
Taiwan bereid bevolking voor op Chinese invasie met oefeningen – BNR
Taiwan’s Tainan simulates response to large scale disasters, Chinese threats – Reuters: ‘the first civil defence drills under [President Lai’s] newly created social resilience committee’
Food distribution for China invasion contingency ‘fully planned’, agriculture minister says – Focus Taiwan
Number of conscripts in Taiwan’s new full-year military service programme up 41% in 2025 – Focus Taiwan: ‘The MND does not expect the number of conscripts in the 1-year program to surge until it recruits college graduates born in 2005 or after in 2027.’
Japan draws up plan to evacuate 120,000 Okinawa islanders near Taiwan – Kyodo News 🇯🇵
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Premier Cho issues warning after mob bosses try to hold event at Legislature – Focus Taiwan: ‘after news broke on Tuesday that the Bamboo Union, one of Taiwan’s largest organized crime networks, had planned to meet at the Legislative Yuan’s Kangyuan Restaurant to select a new gang leader.’
Niet alleen KMT-mastodonten woonden de begrafenis van de vorige leider bij, maar zelfs de fractieleider van de DPP kwam langs.
De vermenging van criminaliteit, corruptie en politiek (‘zwart-goud’ 黑金 hēijīn genaamd) in Taiwan ging ver in de jaren tachtig en negentig – zoals beschreven in het excellente Heijin: Organized Crime, Business, and Politics in Taiwan van Ko-Lin Chin, waarin ook een voorval voorbijkomt waarin huidige parlementsvoorzitter en KMT-presidentskandidaat Han Kuo-yu en andere KMT’ers met criminelen vechten tegen DPP-parlementsleden.
KMT and TPP want to trigger electricity hike for public discontent against government, DPP claims – Taipei Times
PTS and other television channels can continue airing, NCC says – Taipei Times: ‘despite the commission’s inability to meet a quorum to review their license renewal applications.’
Taiwan’s industrial production up for 12th straight month – Focus Taiwan
NSTC announces Pingtung site as Taiwan’s space mission launch centre – Taipei Times