De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 27 december: meer corrupte generaals, discussie economie 2025
Weer zijn er Chinese generaals in de problemen voor (ogenschijnlijk of echt) corruptie. Twee zijn verwijderd uit de volksvertegenwoordiging. Meer onduidelijkheid bestaat over de politiek commissaris van het Chinese leger. Op die stoel is plotseling een nieuwe persoon benoemd, terwijl zowel zijn voorganger als de commandant van het leger afwezig waren bij de ceremonie. Xi is niet niet klaar met kuisen.
We sluiten het jaar af met economische cijfers die nog altijd teleurstellen. Zie de sectie ‘China economie’ onderaan voor details. Ik heb een aparte sectie bovenaan over de discussie over hoe Peking dit interpreteert. Er staat een mogelijk erg belangrijk artikel in de Wall Street Journal over Xi Jinping.
Het artikel hangt af van de betrouwbaarheid van bronnen ‘close to Beijing’s decision-making’. Hun observaties passen wel in wat we zien. (Wat niet hoeft te zeggen dat ze juist zijn, natuurlijk.) Meest opvallende opmerking is dat Xi de economisch analfabetische vraag zou hebben gesteld wat er mis is met deflatie – lage prijzen zijn toch leuk voor de mensen? Dat gaat natuurlijk voorbij aan de negatieve prijsspiraal die ontstaat als consumenten afwachten met kopen tot de prijzen nog verder dalen.
Onder elite in Peking is er al langer het cliché van de domme Xi Jinping zonder opleiding die er niks van snapt. We moeten uitkijken niet onbewust mee te gaan met vooroordelen terwijl Xi zich heeft bewezen als uitgekiende politieke operator. Tegelijkertijd klopt het wel dat hij weinig economisch onderlegd is, overtuigd van zijn eigenlijk gelijk en niet echt werelds is. De consensus is dat het huidige economisch beleid niet per ongeluk is.
Voor meer liberale en klassieke economen is de huidige staat van de Chinese markt een probleem. Zij geloven dat er meer dynamiek en consumptie nodig is om de zaak weer op de rails te krijgen. Ik deel twee draadjes van Setser en Pettis die dit perspectief hebben, maar daarom hard worden aangevallen door mensen die wijzen dat ze de successen van Peking missen. Zoals ik in eerder nieuwsbrieven al heb uitgelegd, zien Xi Jinping en zijn mensen de economie anders.
De huidige ‘hoofdstegenstelling’ – vastgesteld door het 19e partijcongres van 2017 – betreft de contradictie tussen China’s onevenwichtige en ontoereikende ontwikkeling en de groeiende vraag van de mensen naar een beter leven. De explosieve groei van de afgelopen decennia kon onmogelijk voortduren: kijk maar naar de bubbel die was ontstaan in de vastgoedmarkt en enorme schulden van lokale overheden o.a. verspild aan inmiddels overvloedige infrastructuur.
Xi is bezig met een tweetrapsraket om het op te lossen. Eerst moesten de bubbels aan banden gelegd worden. De vastgoedmarkt is slecht en zal slecht blijven, omdat de bubbel een gecontroleerde sloop ondergaat. Het is nog maar de vraag of het lukt, maar belangrijk is te begrijpen dat de afkoeling bewust beleid is. Ook probeert de centrale volksregering de uitgaven van lokale overheden meer onder controle te krijgen.
Hierna moet een nieuw ontwikkelingsmodel ingevoerd worden. Dit gaat onder andere om de technologieën en industrieën van de toekomst. Als Xi kijkt naar de Chinese successen op het gebied van elektrische auto’s, batterijen, enz. dan kan hij redenen vinden om zichzelf vertrouwen in te praten. China is de wereldwijde maakkampioen. Op termijn zou verdere groei kunnen zorgen dat de nu nog onderbenutte infrastructuur en huisvesting alsnog gaan renderen – en in dat geval zouden ze zijn gebouwd op moment dat kosten nog lager waren.
Er is echter wel heel érg veel gebouwd, vaak ook op plekken waar het niet gaat gebeuren. Het grootste probleem blijft, dat spullen die gemaakt worden door de industrie die het volgende groeiwonder mogelijk moet maken, ook gekocht moeten worden. Er zullen kopers zijn. Maar zijn het er genoeg? Er is al veel nieuws geweest dat erop wijst, dat niet alleen de rijke landen geen zin hebben om hun industrieën weg te laten vagen door China, maar dat ook ontwikkelingslanden importheffingen invoeren tegen een vloedgolf aan Chinese producten.
Meer binnenlandse consumptie zou een goede verzekering zijn. De Chinese markt is enorm, zoals Peking gesprekspartners graag herinnert wanneer er diplomatieke moeilijkheden zijn. Alleen blijft het binnenlandse sentiment slecht. Patricia Thornton heeft een goed artikel over het debat in China zelf. Een belangrijke opmerking die ze maakt, betreft de toenemende controle over statistiek en berichtgeving over de economie. Als er geen geloofwaardige informatie meer is over de ware stand van de economie, kan een negatieve sentimentenspiraal een zelfbevestigende voorspelling worden.
En ik moet ook denken aan dit oude citaat uit een andere tijd:
“A plan in a Soviet-type country may be thought of as having two essential components: it transmits information on the basis of which economic action is to take place; and it has force behind it to compel compliance. Functionally, the force component tries to make up for the imperfection of the information component.”
— Franz Schurmann. 1968. Ideology and Organization in Communist China. 2nd ed. Berkeley: University of California Press: 253.
Als onafhankelijk opererende managers zich baseren op een werkelijkheid die tegen de Partij gaat, dan is de oplossing het versterken van directe partijcontrole om te zorgen dat de economie zich voegt naar de dictaten van het Centrum. En het land gaat verder op slot.
Er gebeurt al genoeg in China, maar de Taiwanese politiek is ook erg onrustig. Scroll omlaag om te lezen over de 28 jaar cel geeist tegen oppositieleider Ko Wen-je (TPP) in een grote corruptiezaak en de zorgen over de aanvallen van de KMT op de centrale overheid.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
The remarks by Amb Mr. Tan at Huawei 华为 20th anniversary event – Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Kingdom of the Netherlands: ‘I can tell you that, in fielding questions from the capital, I am very clear and certain that the current Dutch government is stable, will stay on, and do a great job.’ 🇳🇱
‘A sense of freedom’: China’s small bookshops relocate across the world – The Guardian: ‘That Bao was able to present his work to a largely Chinese audience is thanks to Nowhere Netherlands, the latest branch of the Nowhere chain of Chinese-language bookstores that has set up shop in Chiang Mai and Taipei.’ 🇳🇱
Finding China’s voice—abroad – Yi Liu for The Wire China 🇺🇸
Ukraine war: Zelensky thanks China for supporting territorial integrity – SCMP: ‘when accepting a letter of credence from China’s ambassador Ma Shengkun on Monday’ ‘also addressed North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine war and urged China to leverage its influence’ 🇺🇦
How friendly will Europe’s right wing be to Trump on China? It’s complicated – SCMP: ‘Orban and Meloni, two of Trump’s European allies and leaders of the EU’s most successful right-wing factions, however, differ on their China strategies’ 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Russia’s overheated economy is squeezing one of Moscow's key trading channels with China – Business Insider: ‘The changes spell bad news for Russia’s trade with China, which has leaned on railway transport amid Western sanctions.’ 🇷🇺
Prague to let Taiwanese work in Czechia without a permit alongside nine other non-EU countries – Taipei Times 🇨🇿
corrupte generaals
China named Chén Huī 陈辉 new political commissar for its large ground forces, an unexpected move that signals President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 is tightening military discipline – Bloomberg: ‘Chen [Hui]’s appointment is surprising because he had only been at the Aerospace Force for less than a year and has no experience in the ground forces. He replaces the 61-year-old Qin Shutong. No official reason was given for Qin’s departure and his next posting wasn’t announced. Qin’s predecessor stepped down at the de facto retirement age of 65.
Qin, along with Ground Force Commander Li Qiaoming, were not seen at Chen’s promotion ceremony, according to footage from state broadcaster China Central Television, an apparent break with tradition.’
China names Chén Huī 陈辉 to lead PLA ground force political work amid personnel shake-up – SCMP: ‘Qin’s 2022 promotion happened while Miao was the head of the political work department, which is in charge of military personnel changes.’
China ousted two military lawmakers from its national parliament without explanation, as a purge of key personnel in the upper echelons of the nation’s defence establishment shows no sign of easing – Bloomberg: ‘You Haitao and Li Pengcheng’
‘You was once a deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army Ground Force. Li is the navy commander of the Southern Theater Command’
economische discussie
As Beijing braces for a second showdown over trade, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 is digging in on economic policies aimed at making China the world’s most powerful country – WSJ: ‘People close to Beijing’s decision-making say nothing that has befallen China in recent years has changed Xi’s belief that the U.S. is fading as the singular superpower, and that China’s importance is rising on the world stage.’
‘a key Communist Party advisory body […] warned that China could slip into a deflationary spiral—the kind of disaster that befell the U.S. during the Great Depression—if more urgent steps weren’t taken to rejuvenate growth. Xi was unperturbed. “What’s so bad about deflation?” he asked his advisers, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making. “Don’t people like it when things are cheaper?”
Xi’s dismissal made the topic all-but-taboo in Chinese policymaking circles, the people said, despite concern among economists that China could fall into a vicious cycle of falling prices and weak demand.’
‘People close to Beijing’s decision-making say that Xi views the economic challenges China faces as necessary pains in the process of replacing old growth drivers […] They say Xi and his team have been buoyed by progress they have seen in reducing Chinese reliance on Western products, while increasing the world’s dependence on China.’
Dit zijn vrij belangrijke claims. Wie zouden de bronnen zijn?
‘To me of course the structural weakness in China’s economy goes beyond the dominance of the state in deciding the allocation of credit in the economy — China’s failure to build a consumption engine over the last 10 years is now its Achilles’ heel.’ – Brad Setser, Twitter
‘[…] there is nothing intrinsically productive about investing in manufacturing, nor intrinsically non-productive about investing in real estate. What matters is the extent of demand and the gap between desired investment and actual investment.’ – Michael Pettis, Twitter
Kritiek op Pettis is, dat investeringen in nieuwe industrieën nooit productief lijken – totdat ze zichzelf bewezen hebben.
From ‘singing bright prospects’ to ‘traversing history’s “garbage time”’: China struggles with slowing growth – Patricia Thornton for the China Leadership Monitor: ‘intentional opacity about the state of the economy is playing a central — if ultimately counterproductive — role in Xi’s “new normal of economic development”’ ‘by “breed[ing] mistrust, [and] fueling suspicions that the situation is worse than it appears. These in turn can become a self-fulfilling prophecy”’
China’s securities watchdog says economists who spread ‘inappropriate’ views should be fired – Nikkei Asia
Handel 🚗⚡️
China’s commerce ministry extends EU brandy anti-dumping investigation by three months – Reuters: ‘less than the full extension allowed under its previous guidance.’ 🇪🇺
China’s commerce ministry cites case complexity for extending anti-dumping probe into EU brandy – Xinhua 🇪🇺
Promoted content: The so-called Chinese ‘overcapacity’ is completely untenable – Peng Gang, Mission of China to the EU, for Euractiv 🇪🇺
Ambassador Cài Rùn 蔡润 meets with Commissioner for Economy and Productivity Valdis Dombrovskis – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union 🇪🇺
Chinese firms seek European base for factories amid trade tensions and tariffs – SCMP: ‘looking to set up factories in central and eastern Europe to circumvent tariffs and business disruption’ 🇪🇺
Chinese auto uit de gratie in de EU: marktaandeel op laagste punt sinds maart – NU.nl 🇪🇺
Chinese automakers captured their smallest share of Europe’s electric-vehicle market in eight months, after new tariffs added as much as 35% to the cost of importing cars to the region – Bloomberg 🇪🇺
BYD 比亚迪 construction site in Brazil shut over ‘slavery-like’ conditions – The Guardian 🇧🇷
Brazilian authorities: Chinese workers at BYD 比亚迪 construction site victims of international human trafficking – Reuters 🇧🇷
BYD 比亚迪 contractor denies ‘slavery-like conditions’ claims by Brazilian authorities – Reuters: ‘seriously hurting the dignity of the Chinese people.’ ‘accused “foreign forces” and some Chinese media of “deliberately smearing Chinese brands and the country and undermining the relationship between China and Brazil”.’ 🇧🇷
Niet alle ‘staatssteun’ is in geld uit te drukken.
China’s EV sales set to overtake traditional cars years ahead of West – FT: ‘the forecasts suggest Beijing’s official target, set in 2020, for EVs to account for 50 per cent of car sales by 2035, will be achieved 10 years ahead of schedule.’
‘They imply that over the coming decade, factories set up in China to produce tens of millions of cars with traditional engines will have almost no domestic market to serve.’
De Chinese markt was altijd heel erg belangrijk voor de Europese verbrandingsmotor. Dat verdwijnt nu en er komt niks voor in de plaats. Niet alleen zal Peking niet toestaan dat Europese bedrijven met Chinese stekkerautomakers concurreren, het Europese aanbod is simpelweg niet goed genoeg.
Toyota 豊田 eyes building EV factory in China’s Shanghai – Kyodo News 🇯🇵
Tech War 💽💥
Biden launches new Chinese legacy chips trade probe, will hand off to Trump – Reuters: ‘U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said that the trade agency has found evidence that Beijing is targeting the semiconductor industry for global domination’ 🇺🇸
Chinese lithium firm reaches milestone in Mali mine project despite strict new rules – SCMP: ‘China’s largest lithium producer, Ganfeng announced that the first phase of its Goulamina lithium mine, in the southern region of Bougouni, had gone live in mid-December.’ 🇲🇱
Vereniging van Economisten in Suriname (VES) waarschuwt voor gevaarlijke onevenwichtigheden in Chinalco 中铝集团-deal – Suriname Herald 🇸🇷
Huawei 华为’s new flagship smartphones use South Korean memory chips, not Chinese ones – SCMP: ‘made by South Korean semiconductor supplier SK Hynix, according to research firm TechInsights’ 🇰🇷
De Amerikaanse exportcontrolemaatregelen houden zich vooralsnog prima, wat sommige mensen ook zeggen.
Innovation without borders: The PRC’s use of offshore bases – Cheryl Yu for Jamestown China Brief: ‘system of innovation hubs, which are effectively platforms for technology transfer’
China’s centrally-administered state-owned enterprises (SOEs) invest 2 trillion yuan [€263bn] in emerging industries in first 11 months – Xinhua: ‘a year-on-year increase of 18.7 percent’
China improves vocational education with high-tech majors amid shortage in skilled workers – The Straits Times
Het beroemde veldwerk van Scott Rozelle liet zien hoe slecht het Chinese beroepsonderwijs enkele jaren geleden was. Nieuw veldwerk is nodig om te zien of het in de praktijk nu meer voorstelt.
China’s WuXi AppTech 药明康德 to sell Advanced Therapies unit amid US restrictions – Reuters: ‘WuXi said it would also sell Oxford Genetics, the UK-based operating entity of the WuXi ATU business to Altaris LLC.’ 🇺🇸🇬🇧
Why Taiwan’s Foxconn 鴻海, an iPhone supplier, is investing in Texas and Thailand – The New York Times
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
US agency focused on foreign disinformation, the State Department’s Global Engagement Center, shuts down – AFP: ‘after Congress failed to extend its funding following years of Republican criticism.’ 🇺🇸
Panama President Jose Raul Mulino said China has no stake in the Panama Canal and US warships pay the same toll rates as other nations, pushing back against Donald Trump’s threats over the key waterway – Bloomberg 🇺🇸🇵🇦
Feature: Panama reclaims canal — triumph of Global South – Xinhua 🇺🇸🇵🇦
Feature: US invasion delays Panama’s full independence – Xinhua 🇺🇸🇵🇦
Feature: Panama’s sovereignty gains global backing despite US veto – Xinhua 🇺🇸🇵🇦
Staatspersbureau Xinhua maakt al dankbaar gebruik van de propagandagift van Trumps recente imperialistische uitspraken.
Weekend
Longreads en achtergrond
Christophe Fouquet, ceo ASML: „Je moest eens weten hoeveel fuck-ups er nodig zijn om de meest complexe machine ter wereld te maken” – NRC: ‘„Door de export van EUV te verbieden blijft China tien, vijftien jaar achter op het Westen. Dat heeft echt wel effect”, zegt Fouquet.’
‘ASML wil zijn machines in China onder controle houden, om te voorkomen dat informatie weglekt zodra Chinese bedrijven het onderhoud zelf gaan uitvoeren om hun chipfabrieken te laten draaien.’ 🇳🇱
PLA steps up security cooperation with Russia in 2024 – Yu-cheng Chen for Jamestown China Brief 🇷🇺
Why China can’t export AI chips – Chris Miller for AEI: ‘Gina Raimondo, recently made […] a puzzling statement, […] because it’s so clearly in contradiction with the evidence.’ 🇺🇸
The rise and rise of Maye Musk: China’s love affair with Elon Musk’s mother – The Guardian 🇺🇸
Why China isn’t scared of Trump: US-Chinese tensions may rise, but his isolationism will help Beijing – Yan Xuetong for Foreign Affairs 🇺🇸
The father of Chinese authoritarianism has a message for America – Chang Che for The New Yorker: ‘Xiao Gongqin thought that, in moments of flux, a strongman could build a bridge to democracy. Now he’s not so sure.’ 🇺🇸
Myanmar’s escalating civil war and the limits of Chinese intervention –
🇲🇲Podcasts
Eva Rammeloo over de vrijheid en onvrijheid van het correspondentschap – VPRO Bureau Buitenland 🍎
China-terugblik met Ruben Terlou – Bij Gin in Berlin, Spotify
Beijing’s politics of history, with Daniel Leese – MERICS China Podcast 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China stuns with heavy stealth tactical jet’s sudden appearance – The Warzone
New Chinese fighter jet seen over Chengdu tacitly confirmed by military – SCMP
De militaire balans verschuift razendsnel.
Philippines dismisses China’s opposition to US Typhon missile deployment – GMA News 🇵🇭🇺🇸
China-US military exchanges not political show, defence spokesperson says – Xinhua: ‘The current difficulties in China-U.S. military engagement are created solely by the U.S. side, said Zhang Xiaogang’ 🇺🇸
Australische piloot wordt uitgeleverd aan VS voor training Chinese piloten – NOS: „Volgens de Amerikaanse autoriteiten heeft de piloot ongeveer 100.000 dollar gekregen om Chinese militaire piloten illegaal te trainen in het landen en opstijgen van een vliegdekschip” 🇦🇺
Japan en China willen de plooien gladstrijken in hun onderlinge relatie voordat Trump aantreedt in de VS – de Volkskrant 🇯🇵
Japan’s foreign minister raises ‘serious concerns’ over China’s military build-up meeting counterpart in Beijing – AFP 🇯🇵
Japan to ease visa requirements, agrees on top China diplomat visit – Kyodo News: ‘But Iwaya also conveyed to Wang during their talks in Beijing his serious concerns over intensifying Chinese military activities and demanded the removal of a new buoy Japan confirmed in its exclusive economic zone off a remote southwestern island.’ 🇯🇵
China and Japan reach 10 agreements on people-to-people and cultural exchanges – Xinhua 🇯🇵
Chinese and South Korean foreign ministers hold first call since Seoul martial law crisis – SCMP: ‘“[…] China […] believes that South Korean people have the wisdom and ability to properly handle domestic issues,” a Chinese foreign ministry statement said’ 🇰🇷
Situation along Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China ‘stable but sensitive’, says India’s defence ministry – Hindustan Times: ‘restored the ground situation in the two forward areas to what it was pre-April 2020 before the India-China military standoff began.’ 🇮🇳
Chinese defence spokesperson hails progress on China-India border solutions – Xinhua 🇮🇳
Recruitment ads for CCP youth branch secretaries at Singapore’s Ngee Ann Polytechnic removed from LinkedIn after queries – The Online Citizen: ‘However, the authenticity of the [Communist Youth League of China’s] LinkedIn page has raised further eyebrows.’ 🇸🇬
Het is niet geloofwaardig dat de officiële Chinese Communistische Jeugdliga zelf een eigen LinkedIn-pagina aan zou maken enkel om een post te plaatsten en twee vacatures te delen voor een overzeese partijafdeling op een Singaporese hbo-instelling.
DRCongo frees most of Chinese men held for illegal mining – Reuters 🇨🇩
China ready to expand practical cooperation with BRICS members and partners, foreign ministry says – Xinhua: ‘Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Uganda have finally been designated as BRICS partners after the summit, Mao said.’
Questions emerge about data used by China to defend against doping allegations – The New York Times: ‘add to the mounting questions about how the positive tests were investigated and adjudicated.’
Dit is een verhaal over hoe autoritaire landen als China internationale organisaties zoals WADA corrumperen.
China economie
China’s small businesses gasp for air as consumption slump deepens – SCMP: ‘Micro and small enterprises (MSEs) have long been the backbone of China’s private economy in terms of job creation, providing 300 to 400 million roles’
Chinese media hail consumption boost as cautious buyers rent, rather than buy – Reuters: ‘The rise of the “rent, not buy” model has injected new impetus into the world's second-largest economy, the [People’s Daily] said in an upbeat commentary on Monday’
China’s Christmas Eve box office plunges to 13-year low – Reuters
China housing rents slump to 4-year low amid oversupply and job market weakness – Nikkei Asia
China Focus: China’s 5th national economic census highlights new development vitality – Xinhua
China plans record CN¥3 trillion [€395bn] special treasury bond issuance next year, sources say – Reuters: ‘The highest on record, […] a sharp increase from this year’s 1 trillion yuan’
‘The proceeds will be targeted at boosting consumption via subsidy programmes, equipment upgrades by businesses and funding investments in innovation-driven advanced sectors, among other initiatives, said the sources.’
‘The remaining proceeds would be used to recapitalise large state banks, said the sources, as top lenders struggle with shrinking margins, faltering profits and rising bad loans.’
Dat zoveel naar het herkapitaliseren van de banken gaat, is ook wel een teken van de staat van de financiële industrie in China.
China’s finance ministry reaffirmed it will increase public spending with a greater focus on boosting consumption to support the economy next year, ahead of growth headwinds from looming US tariffs – Bloomberg
Private equity investors trapped in China as top firms fail to find exit deals – FT: ‘The difficulty in cashing out has been one of the main factors deterring international buyout groups from making investments in the country, in addition to Sino-US tensions and the economic slowdown.’
ESG funds found to have US$1.4bn exposure to Xinjiang labour camps – FT’s Ignite Asia
China’s housing and urban-rural development ministry vows continued efforts to stabilise housing market in 2025 – Xinhua: ‘strictly controlling the expansion of new commercial housing while improving the quality of homes’
China’s market regulator to implement 3-year action plan to optimise consumer environment – Xinhua
PRC State Council guideline encourages private investment in China’s railways – SCMP: ‘locally controlled railway companies will be granted autonomy to determine their operational models.’
In Depth: Canal building fever grips China amid slowing growth – Caixin Global
China revises up 2023 GDP to US$17.73 trln, rules out impact on 2024 figure – Reuters
China binnenland
China sets dates for Two Sessions as investors await 2025 economic growth target – SCMP: ‘This year’s two sessions will draw special attention as the world waits for Beijing to decide on its growth target’
China’s national legislature to convene annual session on March 5 – Xinhua
Book exploring Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s thoughts on united front work published – Xinhua
Uyghur intellectual and educational activist Ibrahim Dawut died while in custody of Chinese authorities – RFA: ‘arrested the night before his daughter’s wedding five years ago, died only two months later while in detention’
China’s state security ministry says foreign spies are slandering revolutionary heroes online – SCMP
A dam ignited rare Tibetan protests. They ended in beatings and arrests, BBC finds – BBC News: ‘The protests, followed by the crackdown, took place in a territory home to Tibetans in Sichuan province.’
‘the dam’s reservoir would submerge an area that is culturally and religiously significant to Tibetans, and home to several villages and ancient monasteries containing sacred relics.’
China approves Tibet mega dam that could generate 3 times more power than Three Gorges – SCMP
Chinese legal experts condemn police for sending blogger to psychiatric hospital – SCMP: ‘previously accused an auxiliary officer of sexual assault’
Chinese court delivers suspended death sentence for primary school SUV attack in Hunan – SCMP
China steps up campaign for single people to date, marry and give birth – FT: ‘married women in their 20s and early 30s across the country have been receiving calls from local officials asking about their plans to start a family’
In oktober kwam The New York Times ook al met dit verhaal.
China’s rural migrant workers have severe reservations about starting a family – WSJ: ‘a big reason appears to be China’s household-registration system, which since the 1950s has divided the population into rural or urban and makes it hard for rural workers to take their children with them.’
‘Even though two-thirds of Chinese now live in cities, only 48% have urban residency rights, suggesting that roughly a quarter of a billion people are shut out of many benefits in the cities where they work.’
China’s massive solar rooftop roll-out gains traction, but grid struggles to keep pace – SCMP
Nederland is niet alleen in dit probleem.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong national security police issue HK$1 million [€124k] bounties for 6 ‘fugitives’ – HKFP: ‘To date, there are 19 people wanted by Hong Kong police on suspicion of committing national security offences.’
Hong Kong government cancels passports of 7 ‘absconder’ activists under new domestic security law provision – HKFP: ‘The orders also banned activities in connection with immovable properties and joint ventures or partnerships linked to the seven activists’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 (KMT) emphasises shared historical roots of island and Chinese – SCMP: ‘emphasising that people on both sides were descendants of [mythical] Emperor Yan and the [mythical] Yellow Emperor.’
‘“Most Taiwanese people maintain a strong sense of identity with Chinese culture and the Chinese nation,” Ma asserted [incorrectly]. “Any attempts by the DPP to promote de-sinicisation are bound to fail because Chinese culture is deeply rooted in the bloodline [sic] of its people.”’ 🇨🇳
Feature: Connections of youth across Taiwan Strait deepened over snow, ice, and heritage – Xinhua
Dat de Taiwanese vertegenwoordigers die Chinezen te spreken zijn voor een groot deel bestaan uit Chinese nationalisten als Ma heeft ook risico’s. Hierdoor begrijpen de Chinese gesprekspartners Taiwan minder goed en overschatten ze de steun voor Pekings visie.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office pledges vigorous exploration of ‘two systems’ solution for Taiwan question – Xinhua: ‘“We believe that the people of Taiwan will develop a better understanding of the ‘one country, two systems,’” Chen said’ 🇨🇳
Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu 韓國瑜 (KMT) expected to lead Taiwanese delegation to the US Trump’s inauguration – Taipei Times 🇺🇸
Taiwan to help Guatemala in cybersecurity – Taipei Times 🇬🇹
In a first, Taiwan’s Presidential Office runs war games to simulate a China emergency – Reuters: ‘led by Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim and National Security Council Secretary-general Joseph Wu’
Taiwan’s navy orders domestic suicide drones, research group says – Taipei Times: ‘The institute is conducting the final certification tests before delivering Loitering Munition 1 to the navy’ ‘probably buying the weapons for the Marine Corps.’
‘The institute is developing Loitering Munition 2’
Taiwan corruptiezaak
TPP leader Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 indicted on real estate bribery and campaign financing irregularities charges – Focus Taiwan: ‘Prosecutors are seeking a total sentence of 28.5 years for Ko’
Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) facing 28.5 years for corruption and bribery – Taipei Times: ‘Prosecutors are also seeking legal assistance to repatriate Hsu Chih-yu (許芷瑜), who flew to Japan in August where she has since remained.’
Timeline of Core Pacific City corruption case involving ex-Taipei mayor (up to Dec. 26) – Focus Taiwan
Ko wist zich succesvol te verkopen als kandidaat die de ‘ideologie’ van de gevestigde partijen oversteeg en ‘gewoon dingen doen’ als mantra had. Hij trok veel ontevreden jonge mannen aan. Zijn partij houdt nog altijd vol dat het politieke vervolging is.
Prosecutors in Taiwan indict former presidential candidate – The New York Times: ‘The indictment of Mr. Ko does not mean that his party is bound to collapse. “What’s important to keep in mind is that the sort of political force that he awakened in Taiwan is not going to go away,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University in Taipei. “If anything, T.P.P. supporters who still identify with the party are not going to be swayed, because they haven’t been swayed yet by Ko’s arrest.”’
‘Yang Kuei-chih, a lawyer in Taipei who has closely followed the case against Mr. Ko, said the specificity and breadth of the charges against him may dampen some support for Mr. Ko.’
Ko Wen-je 柯文哲’s 10-year rise and fall in Taiwanese politics – Focus Taiwan
TPP decries Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 indictment as ‘political persecution’ – Focus Taiwan: ‘the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) said in response to the indictment that it remains steadfast in its stance that no crimes should go unpunished but opposed any trumped-up charges.’
Former legislator Tsai Pi-ju 蔡壁如 to run for TPP central committee – Taipei Times
Taipei City to consider fate of Core Pacific mall – Taipei Times
Taiwan politieke onrust
Taiwan’s Constitutional Court in a bind after all seven justice nominees rejected – Focus Taiwan: ‘With amendments requiring a minimum of 10 justices to hear a case pushed through by opposition party lawmakers in the Legislature last week, Tuesday’s votes will in effect immobilize the current eight-member Constitutional Court.’
‘[TPP] supported Liu Ching-yi (劉靜怡), who currently teaches at National Taiwan University, but ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers defied the president on Liu's nomination and joined with the KMT in rejecting her because of negative comments she has made about the ruling party and some of its leaders.’
New court procedures stricter than martial law, DPP says – Taipei Times
Taiwanese cabinet warns KMT’s adopted allocation amendments entail ‘complete overhaul’ of central government budget – Focus Taiwan: ‘Defense spending, for instance, would need to be cut by 28 percent, the minister warned.’
Budget cuts could harm defence readiness, NSC says – Taipei Times
Tech collaborations at risk, economic affairs ministry says – Taipei Times
Projects and services severely affected by fiscal planning bill, ministers say – Taipei Times
KMT defends amendments to funding allocation law – Taipei Times: ‘DGBAS Minister Chen Shu-tzu (陳淑姿) said the changes would cause “procedural chaos” in relation to the 2025 general budget, which has already been hotly contested by lawmakers in the past few months.’
Wat zou er gebeuren met het nu al niet soepel lopende Nederlandse begrotingsoverleg als men nu ineens 10 procent van de inkomsten voor 2025 zou verschuiven naar provincies en gemeenten? Dat scenario dreigt nu in Taiwan.
Activist groups begin new phase of ‘Bluebird movement’ – Taipei Times: ‘beginning nationwide public forums and recall drives aiming to oust Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislators’
President will promulgate new laws, office says – Taipei Times: ‘Some have suggested that Lai could refuse to promulgate the laws, or that Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) could refuse to countersign them, but Pan confirmed that both men would uphold the Constitution.’
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Deepfake video of DPP caucus whip Ker Chien-ming 柯建銘 discrediting his party spreads on ByteDance 字节跳动’s TikTok – Taipei Times
Heavier punishment sought for corrupt coast guard officer – Taipei Times: ‘found guilty of selling classified military material to a Chinese national’
Taiwan’s FTC blocks Uber Eats-Foodpanda merger – Focus Taiwan
Citizens abroad no longer able to suspend NHI payments – Focus Taiwan
Legislature’s education committee grills Taiwan’s education ministry over China travel budget – Taipei Times: ‘the ministry is considering allowing Chinese students living in third regions to study in Taiwan.’ 🇨🇳