De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 25 augustus: BRICS, Japan
Als je geen Chinese media volgt, is het lastig je voor te stellen hoe groot de anti-Japanse campagne is, die men daar heeft opgetuigd. Tokio gaat het afvalwater van de door de tsunami van 2011 beschadigde kerncentrale van Fukushima eindelijk lozen in de zee.
Greenpeace en enkele demonstranten in Japan en Zuid-Korea zijn tegen. Maar volgens de IAEA en experts is het veilig. Japanse pers schrijft dat het aantal deeltjes tritium in het afvalwater van Chinese kerncentrales vele malen hoger zit. Toch is Peking een grote hoeveelheid verklaringen, veroordelingen, filmpjes, cartoons, tweets, enz. de wereld in gaan slingeren.
Ze hebben in ieder geval de eigen bevolking bang gemaakt. Maar, zoals Tong Zhao zo goed uitlegde op Twitter, is dit weer een voorbeeld van het feit dat de Chinese bevolking steeds meer in een parallelle informatie-werkelijkheid leeft. Dat zal wederzijds onbegrip en Chinese verongelijktheid alleen maar doen toenemen.
Xi Jinping zelf is ondertussen in Zuid-Afrika bezig een andere nieuwe wereld te creëren. De top van de BRICS-landen – vijf ooit opkomende economieën die eens door een bankier van Goldman Sachs in een ludieke afkorting zijn gestopt, waarna die landen daar pardoes een internationale groepering van maakten – heeft ingestemd met uitbreiding.
Argentinië, Egypte, Ethiopië, Iran, Saudi-Arabië and de Verenigde Arabische Emiraten mogen erbij komen. Nog veel meer landen hadden ook wel lid willen worden. De belangstelling laat zien, dat er grote vraag is naar een internationale groepering die vooral als gemeenschappelijk kenmerk lijkt te hebben dat het niet westers is. Maar organisatorisch is de BRICS zwak en onderling zijn de landen verdeeld in hun kijk op de wereld.
De toespraak van Xi Jinping zelf is overduidelijk anti-westers. Hij positioneert China als leider of ondersteunder van de ontwikkelende landen. Vervolgens definieert hij hun identiteit en gedrag in termen waarvoor je bijna altijd „In tegenstelling tot het Westen, …” kunt lezen.
Tijdens interacties met niet-westerse diplomaten merk ik zelf ook wel enige wens om eindelijk los te komen van het arrogante Westen. Tegelijkertijd hoor je slechts bij specifieke landen letterlijke Chinese spreekpunten terug. Maar zelfs dan zegt men, dat ze graag economische samenwerking hebben met elk land dat hen iets te bieden heeft.
De vraag blijft of landen die niet-westerse samenwerking zoeken uiteindelijk kunnen leven met een anti-westerse organisatie gericht op Chinese doelen.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Techbedrijven zien China kennis stelen, maar ze hebben het land nodig. „Ze zitten in de klem” – de Volkskrant: „Het besef dat deze Chinese strategie ook bedrijven als NXP en ASML kon raken, daalde in het Westen laat in.” 🇳🇱
China launched new Qiming programme to quietly recruit overseas chip talent after it stopped promoting Thousand Talents Plan – Reuters
China’s semiconductor ambitions fuel European brain drain – Bloomberg (2023-07-19) 🇪🇺
Het is lastig voor de overheid om bedrijven te helpen die niet geholpen willen worden. Ik moet ook denken aan verhalen uit de Verenigde Staten, waar achter de schermen technologiebedrijven de overheid smeekten om bescherming, terwijl ze publiekelijk niks durfden te zeggen en Peking juist stroop om de mond smeerden.
Nu dan echt: reuzenpanda Fan Xing vertrekt naar China – RTL Nieuws 🇳🇱
German guarantees for China investments plummet – Reuters 🇩🇪
China allows Allianz to set up onshore fund management company – Reuters 🇩🇪
Germany to give Philippine Coast Guard surveillance drones amid tensions in West Philippine Sea [South China Sea] – CNN Philippines 🇩🇪
China’s top legislator Zhào Lèjì 赵乐际 calls for strengthened cooperation with Hungarian National Assembly – Xinhua 🇭🇺
BRICS 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦
BRICS heeft zes nieuwe lidstaten „Het oude partnerschap met Amerika piept en kraakt” – NRC
Brics breidt uit: zes nieuwe landen mogen lid worden van het niet-westerse alternatief voor de G7 – de Volkskrant
Met de Saoedi’s erbij heeft de Brics-familie straks waardevolle expertise in huis – FD
Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE six new countries invited to join BRICS – Hindustan Times: ‘Nearly two dozen countries had formally applied to join the bloc’
Indonesië wilde blijkbaar uiteindelijk toch juist niet lid worden…
Analysis: BRICS now a non-western grouping with the induction of six more member nations – The Hindu: ‘Chief amongst the messages the BRICS has sent out is that despite misgivings and even mockery of the cohesion in the grouping in the west, it is an attractive club for members of the Global South.’
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 pledges to support Africa’s industrialisation at BRICS – Reuters
Full Text: Remarks by Chinese President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 at the 15th BRICS Summit – Xinhua
Xi Jinping says BRICS important force in shaping international landscape – Xinhua: ‘“The Cold War mentality is still haunting our world, and the geopolitical situation is getting tense,” Xi said.’
Voor de meeste beschrijvingen die Xi geeft van wat BRICS is, kun je in hoofd eerst zeggen: „In tegenstelling tot het Westen, …”.
Full Text: Remarks by Chinese President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 at the BRICS-Africa Outreach and BRICS Plus Dialogue – Xinhua
BRICS should strengthen cross-border payment cooperation, China says – Reuters
XV BRICS Summit Johannesburg II Declaration
Assistent Xi probeert president bij te benen maar raakt niet voorbij te ijverige security – De Standaard
EU’s European Investment Bank president Werner Hoyer warns West needs to act to avoid losing developing world’s trust – Reuters 🇪🇺
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 vows to support Cuba in defending its national sovereignty – Reuters
PM Modi and President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 call for speedy disengagement along Line of Actual Control – The Hindu
Japan 🇯🇵
China bans seafood from Japan after the Fukushima nuclear plant begins its wastewater release – AP: ‘Tony Hooker, director of the Center for Radiation Research, Education, Innovation at the University of Adelaide, said the water released from the Fukushima plant is safe. “It certainly is well below the World Health Organization drinking water guidelines,” he said. “It’s safe.”’
Chinese nuclear power plants releasing water containing tritium at levels 6.5 times higher than planned Fukushima discharge – The Yomiuri Shimbun (2023-06-23)
De Chinese diplomatie en propaganda is met een enorme anti-Japanse campagne bezig rond dit onderwerp. Op Twitter maakte Tong Zhao zich zorgen over de alternatieve informatiewereld waarin China zo terecht komt.
De Chinese ambassade in Den Haag tweette zelfs zonder grond dat het tegen het internationaal recht zou zijn. De Chinese ambassade in Brussel loog dat er groot internationaal verzet is tegen de operatie.
Japan begint met lozen afvalwater kerncentrale Fukushima in de Stille Oceaan – NRC
Japan begonnen met lozen van radioactief koelwater in zee, heftige reacties in China en Zuid-Korea – de Volkskrant
Japan begint met lozen afvalwater, Chinezen plunderen webwinkels uit angst voor radioactief zeezout – Trouw
Het is Peking in ieder geval wel gelukt om de eigen bevolking bang te maken.
Taiwan steps up inspections as Japan releases nuclear wastewater – Focus Taiwan
No ban on Japanese seafood expected, says Taiwan’s FDA – Taipei Times
Tech War 💽💥
Ook bedrijven doen TikTok in de ban vanwege veiligheidsrisico’s – FD
A draft of TikTok’s plan to avoid a ban gives the US government unprecedented oversight power – Forbes
Parliamentary Question: Answer given by Executive Vice-President Vestager on behalf of the European Commission – European Parliament: ‘following the communication on the implementation of the 5G cybersecurity Toolbox[4], in which the Commission considers that Huawei and ZTE represent in fact materially higher risks than other 5G suppliers, the Commission intends, in accordance with its competences under the respective governance rules, to reflect this in all relevant EU funding programmes and instruments including in all parts of the Horizon Europe framework programme.’ 🇪🇺
A chip trade group is warning that Huawei is building a secret network of semiconductor plants across China in a bid to skirt US sanctions – Bloomberg: ‘constructing and buying facilities under the names of other companies without disclosing its involvement’
Ant Group will cut foreign investors out of fast-growing database business – The Information
China’s ontkoppeling gaat door.
Japan and ASEAN to cooperate on recycling rare metals in ‘urban mines’ – The Yomiuri Shimbun
Nvidia warned stronger US restrictions on the sale of chips to China will hurt American companies – Bloomberg
Nvidia kan nog voor 25 miljard dollar aan aandelen terugkopen, dus ook met een paar miljard minder winst hadden ze nog gewoon hetzelfde kunnen uitgeven aan R&D.
Former head of Xpeng’s self-driving unit joins Nvidia in prelude to deeper ties – Yicai Global
US-China de-risking will inevitably escalate – James Crabtree for Foreign Policy
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Hyundai and Kia are having a blockbuster year, with surging sales and record profits. Except in China, the world’s biggest automobile market – Bloomberg: ‘The impact is apparent, with Hyundai cutting its manufacturing facilities in the country by more than half and reducing its lineup to eight mostly premium models, down from 13.’
Why fewer university students are studying Mandarin – The Economist
The Black Sea port that could define Georgia’s geopolitical future – RFE/RL
Weekend
Longreads en achtergrond
De Chinese droom: Xivilisation – Jan van der Putten in De Groene Amsterdammer
Rising South China Sea tensions and concerns for Europe – Vera Kranenburg and Nick Bontenbal for Clingendael Spectator
Bang voor privébedrijven, bang voor zijn eigen burgers: gaat controle voor Xi boven Chinese groei? – NRC
💡 Xi’s Age of Stagnation: The great walling-off of China – Ian Johnson for Foreign Affairs: ‘But I decided to spend most of my time with a much broader cross section of Chinese people-doctors, business owners, bus drivers, carpenters, nuns, and students-whom I have known for years. Their experiences, along with broader trends in civil society and government, suggest that China’s leaders have begun to sacrifice technocratic progress and even popular support in their pursuit of stability. Beijing’s bet seems to be that in order to withstand the pressures of an uncertain world, it must turn inward and succeed on its own. In doing so, however, it may instead be repeating the mistakes of its Eastern bloc predecessors in the middle decades of the Cold War.’
The local government debt that threatens China’s economy – FT: ‘“The underlying mentality [of resistance] is political,” said a senior state banker who deals with Guizhou local government debt. “Bridges and roads are built in response to calls for economic growth and poverty alleviation. But why should the localities now shoulder all the cost on behalf of the central government?”’
How China made its housing crisis worse – The New York Times: ‘China is seeing the consequences of its failure to establish robust social assistance programs.’
‘Mr. Xi is a strong critic of public assistance programs, warning in a speech to an elite Communist Party gathering two years ago that China “must not aim too high or go overboard with social security, and steer clear of the idleness-breeding trap of welfarism.”’
Why China’s economy won’t be fixed – The Economist: ‘decisions are increasingly governed by an ideology that fuses a left-wing suspicion of rich entrepreneurs with a right-wing reluctance to hand money to the idle poor.’
How to kill Chinese dynamism – Yasheng Huang for Project Syndicate: ‘Inventions alone do not contribute to economic growth. Rather, growth is powered by innovation — the entrepreneurship and business-development activities that take inventions to the market through commercialization.’ ‘Those who believe that Chinese entrepreneurship somehow thrived under a magical formula of statism thus ignore the role that Hong Kong — and a number of other overseas domiciles — played in providing the conventional pillars of innovation-driven economic growth.’
The lab-leak illusion – Jamie Palmer for Quillette [sic]
‘Chinese discourse and narrative system’ 中国话语和中国叙事体系 – The China Media Project dictionary
The myth of the ‘vassal state’: China’s influence in Laos is waning – Joanne Lin for 9DASHLINE
Taiwan’s companies make the world’s electronics. Now they want to make weapons – NPR
Podcasts
💡 Gone to the ground: China’s rare earths strategy – The Little Red Podcast interviews Martijn Rasser (Datenna) and Jon Hykaway (Stormcrow) 🍎 🤖
Drum Tower: Solo-motherland – The Economist: ‘meet the women redefining what a family looks like.’ 🍎 🤖
Drum Tower: For richer, for poorer – The Economist: ‘meet the married-out women in rural Fujian fighting to get their land back.’ 🍎 🤖
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
US seeks six-month extension to controversial science agreement with China – Reuters
China slams US call to ban anti-satellite missile tests as ‘fake arms control’ – SCMP: ‘the European Union said it planned to join a US proposal to prohibit the destructive testing of direct-ascent anti-satellite missiles (ASAT).’
Net als guardrails in de Zuid-Chinese Zee heeft Peking geen zin om zaken te bevriezen, waar het vindt dat de VS nog voorloopt en waar het zelf nog sterker denkt te worden.
Beijing allegedly tried to run candidate against popular Canadian mayor –
: ‘Specifically, The Bureau has learned CSIS intelligence alleges China’s top diplomats in Vancouver and Toronto have funded and directed Chinese community associations that are co-opted by Beijing’s United Front interference arm, to transfer financial, media and volunteer support to favoured candidates, because China wants to promote so-called “friends” up through the ranks of Canadian politics, in order to fulfill its objectives.’Former police officer targeted British Columbia real estate tycoon for China, RCMP allege – The Globe and Mail
Major Muslim group OIC buys into China’s narrative of happy Uyghurs in a stable Xinjiang – RFA
China critics chased in Mekong countries as Beijing’s overseas security clout grows – Nikkei Asia
China teams up with Thailand and Laos to tackle cybercriminals in Myanmar who often target Chinese nationals – SCMP
Indo-Pacific defence chiefs ‘shocked’ at China’s West Philippine Sea [South China Sea] moves, says armed forces chief Romeo Brawner – The Inquirer
China and Australia raise climate change, security at Pacific leaders summit – Reuters
Latin America expert Yang Wanming takes over as head of Chinese friendship association CPAFFC – SCMP
China economie
Tech suppliers in China skip seasonal hiring rush amid weak demand – Nikkei Asia
China should stick to ‘houses are for living, not for speculation’, state-run Economic Daily editorial said – Reuters
Dus geen wijziging van het beleid nu de markt hapert.
China braces for US$38 billion in losses in troubled trust sector – Bloomberg
Global investors have been shedding China’s blue-chip stocks in a US$9.3 billion selloff – Bloomberg
Blackstone China unit gets nod to raise funds for overseas investments – Reuters
China binnenland
China’s unexpected decision to end its Covid Zero policy in December 2022 led to nearly 1.9 million excess deaths in just two months, according to a new study – Bloomberg
Xiao H, Wang Z, Liu F, Unger JM. Excess All-Cause Mortality in China After Ending the Zero COVID Policy. JAMA Network Open. 2023;6(8):e2330877. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.30877
Chinese man reist met een jetski 300 kilometer over zee om zijn land te ontvluchten – de Volkskrant
Former chief of Bank of Beijing out of touch as regulators probe dealings – Caixin Global
Hong Kong
Hongkonger jailed by China for 3 years over speedboat escape bid faces protest charge upon return to city – HKFP: ‘Tang was escorted to the District Court in a black hood and chained around his waist.’
6 months jail for Hongkonger convicted of inciting others on internet forum to harm police – HKFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
US approves possible US$500 million sale of F-16 search and track systems to Taiwan – Reuters
China’s Fujian Maritime Safety Administration announces live-fire drills near Taiwan – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan to reopen borders to Chinese business travellers and Chinese tourists from third countries – Focus Taiwan
Japan Cabinet Secretariat budgeting for a potential Taiwan contingency, Sankei Shimbun reports – Taipei Times: ‘includes the cost of researching suitable sites for shelters and drawing up guidelines for shelter specifications’
No plans to change ties, Guatemala’s next president Arevalo says – Taipei Times
Taiwan verkiezingen
KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 to make 8-day trip to US in September – Focus Taiwan: ‘scheduled to depart Taiwan on Sept. 14, flying first to New York then later to Washington and San Francisco’
Voorspelling: de reis van burgemeester Hou zal niet leiden tot Chinese militaire dreigementen of zorgen over ‘provocaties’ van bepaalde Amerikaanse China Hands.
💡 ‘There is no worse to come with the KMT, it is already falling apart now’ – Courtney Donovan Smith: ‘Aside from the brand name, what leverage does the KMT still have over the local factional politicians?’
Taiwanese billionaire Terry Gou 郭台銘 is acting like a model presidential candidate, but there’s just one problem: He’s not in the race, or not yet – Bloomberg
Terry Gou 郭台銘 hints at possible presidential bid during temple visit – Focus Taiwan
Scuffle in Kinmen as Terry Gou 郭台銘 confronted by Taiwan Statebuilding Party – Taipei Times: ‘Gou said that Taiwan should sign a peace treaty with the Chinese government’
Labour groups urge labour ministry to raise minimum wage to NT$27,600 [€800] – Focus Taiwan: ‘Any minimum wage hike will not apply to live-in migrant caregivers and domestic helpers, who are not covered by Taiwan’s Labor Standards Act.’
Werkgeversbelangen vinden dit voorstel al te hoog, hoewel Taiwanese salarissen juist al jarenlang achterblijven. Rijk land met veel arme werknemers.
China squeezes Taiwan with military drills, trade threats and mango ban – Nikkei Asia: ‘the Chinese Commerce Ministry's review of cross-strait trade barriers is scheduled to be concluded no later than Jan. 12, 2024, a day before Taiwan's presidential vote.’
‘We’re more resilient’: China’s sudden ban on Taiwan’s prized mangoes has limited impact – The Straits Times: ‘In 2019, China accounted for 80 per cent of Taiwan’s total fruit exports, but that has dropped to only 1.6 per cent in 2022, according to government data. Today, Japan is the largest importer of Taiwanese fruit,’
‘More worrying, experts say, is the risk of Beijing abandoning the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), a trade pact with Taiwan in retaliation against the island’s long-standing restrictions on certain goods from mainland China.’ ‘While Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs forecast that a termination of the agreement would affect less than 5 per cent of trade exchanges with China, analysts said that the political fallout would be a massive blow to cross-strait relations.’
Toerisme naar Taiwan, auto’s uit Zuid-Korea, graan uit Australië en zeldzame metalen voor Japan zijn andere voorbeelden. Keer op keer zie je, dat Peking, juist door wederzijdse afhankelijkheden aan te wenden voor strafmaatregelen of pogingen tot dwang (of was het drang), afhankelijkheden vermindert.
Taiwan binnenland en economie
President Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) leads her final memorial to 1958 Kinmen artillery bombardment – Focus Taiwan: ‘It was the third time since taking office in 2016 that Tsai has attended the annual memorial’