De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 25 april: Nederlandse diensten, Europese sancties
Verschillende media berichten dat Peking en het Europees Parlement overeen zouden zijn gekomen, dat Chinese sancties op Europarlementariërs opgeheven zullen worden. Dit is een interessant signaal uit Peking, zeker gezien de wijze waarop Europa en China elkaar aftasten sinds de handelsoorlog van Trump begon.
Tegelijkertijd moeten we het signaal ook niet weer overschatten. De opheffing lijkt beperkt – ik las niks over de getroffen academici, denktanks en nationale politici. Er komen ook geen enthousiaste geluiden uit de Commissie over de Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), die Peking hiermee nieuw leven in zou willen blazen. De tijden zijn nogal veranderd sinds China terugsloeg op Europese sancties vanwege mensenrechtenschendingen van Oeigoeren in 2021, waarop Merkels laatste push voor de CAI een stille dood stierf..
Er gaan al langer geruchten rond in Chinacirkels over wederzijdse toenaderingen tussen EU en China om de sancties op te heffen. Ze vormen nogal een blokkade op de betrekkingen. Maar de EU-instellingen zien blijkbaar geen brood in de genoemde voorstellen. De Europese Dienst voor Extern Optreden (EDEO) deelde mee, als reactie op de recente berichtgeving, dat de Xinjiang-sancties ongewijzigd blijven. De situatie waarvoor ze zijn aangenomen is niet verbeterd.
De mededeling van EDEO doet mij vermoeden, dat dit laatste nieuws stamt uit een initiatief van EP-president Metsola en de Chinese ambassade. Vooruitgang met het EP zou Peking goed helpen om de suggestie te wekken van momentum, momentum dat elders nog ontbreekt. Von der Leyen bleef in haar telefoongesprek met Li Qiang na de Amerikaanse heffingen wijzen op de Europese zorgen over Chinese overcapaciteit. Het wordt echt interessant, wanneer we toenaderingen gaan zien bij de andere Europese instellingen.
Ondertussen lijkt het Witte Huis helemaal de greep op de wereldhandelsoorlog met China verloren te zijn. Trump claimt vooruitgang en ontmoetingen. Pekings ministeries noemen dat nepnieuws. Daarop reageerde Trump met een ‘welles’. De Chinese ambassadeur zou langs zijn geweest. Wie weet het? Trump heeft het vertrouwen in ieder geval al lang verspeeld.
Er is ook een sloot aan berichten over mogelijke sanctieverlichting van Amerikaanse kant. Minister Bessent zei dat de situatie onhoudbaar is, maar ontkent eenzijdige verlaging. Dat is wel wat Peking zou willen: de boodschap is duidelijk dat Washington de eerste stap zou moeten zetten. De VS zou vanwege te toegenomen pijn in eigen land en chaos in het Witte Huis toch nog wel snel stappen kunnen gaan zetten.
China lijdt echter ook pijn. Online gaan geruchten rond over een lijst aan Amerikaanse producten die Peking van de Chinese heffingen uit zou zonderen. Scroll omlaag voor de tweet van Gerard DiPippo, niet iemand die normaal maar wat roept. Jacob Gunter zei in de podcast van MERICS niet voor niets dat we ook niet moeten onderschatten, wat de Chinese tegenheffingen doen met kritieke input voor de Chinese industrie.
De spanning tussen India en Pakistan loopt nogal op na de recente dodelijke terreuraanslag op toeristen in een door India gecontroleerd deel van Kashmir. Pakistan is een van de oudste militaire partners van China. We gaan de komende dagen zien of dit de recente toenadering tussen Peking en Delhi gaat raken.
Maandag 28 en dinsdag 29 april ben ik in Bratislava voor een China-conferentie. De nieuwsbrief zal waarschijnlijk vertraagd worden.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Openbaar jaarverslag 2024 – MIVD: „Chinese (staats)bedrijven kunnen nagenoeg zonder restricties allerhande goederen aan Rusland leveren, dat deze gebruikt voor zijn oorlogsinspanningen in Oekraïne. Hoewel China in principe geen wapens en munitie levert aan Rusland, leverden Chinese bedrijven wel degelijk dual-use-goederen voor de Russische oorlogsindustrie en zelfs aanvalsdrones. Dit gaat in tegen het door China zelf uitgedragen exportcontrolebeleid.” 🇳🇱
Jaarverslag 2024: dreiging tegen Nederland onverminderd groot, onzekerheid over wereldorde – AIVD: „[Rusland en China] werkten politiek, economisch en militair nauwer samen, ook al hebben ze soms andere belangen.” 🇳🇱
Jaarverslag 2024 – AIVD: „En in zijn streven naar marktleiderschap in diverse technologieën voerde China zeer geavanceerde cyberaanvallen uit op hoogtechnologische bedrijven, ook in Nederland.”
„Ook blijft de regering van Venezuela de krijgsmacht opbouwen met steun van Rusland, Iran en China. De instabiliteit in Venezuela kan potentieel grote gevolgen hebben voor de economie, politiek en veiligheid van Aruba, Curaçao en Bonaire.” 🇳🇱
Themaverhaal: Streven naar dominantie bepaalde China’s acties in 2024 – AIVD: „China is de grootste dreiging voor de economische en kennisveiligheid van Nederland en een formidabele handelspartner tegelijk.” 🇳🇱
EU und China: Peking versucht sich in Charmediplomatie – SZ: „Nach Recherchen der Süddeutschen Zeitung will die Regierung in Peking einseitig ihre Sanktionen gegen fünf aktuelle und ehemalige Abgeordnete des Europäischen Parlaments aufheben.“
„Man spreche weiter mit den chinesischen Behörden und befinde sich „in der Endphase“, bestätigte ein Sprecher Metsolas.“
„Die übrigen Maßnahmen Chinas gegen fünf andere Personen sowie gegen drei weitere europäische Institutionen, darunter das Forschungsinstitut Merics, bleiben in Kraft. Der Auswärtige Dienst der EU reagierte kühl auf die diplomatische Offerte aus Peking und hält ihrerseits an den Sanktionen fest.“ 🇪🇺
China to lift some of sanctions that sunk the CAI: The move will fuel speculation of an EU-China détente amid Trump trade war – Noah Barkin’s
China to lift sanctions on MEPs in bid to revive trade deal with EU – FT: ‘Two EU officials said the CAI would not be revived as the situation had changed so much. It would exempt China from some trade enforcement action, one said.’ 🇪🇺
European Parliament in ‘final stages’ of talks with China to remove sanctions on lawmakers – SCMP: ‘It is understood that Metsola has met the Chinese ambassador several times and worked intensively over the past weeks to get this over the finish line.’ 🇪🇺
As China eases up on EU lawmakers, Brussels stays the course on Xinjiang sanctions – SCMP: ‘a spokeswoman for the EU’s diplomatic arm, which oversees foreign policy and sanctions, said on Thursday it had no plans to reciprocate because it had not observed an improvement in conditions in [Xinjiang].’ 🇪🇺
European Commission blacklists groups lobbying for Huawei 华为 – POLITICO Europe: ‘Wednesday’s statement said the ban extended to “any intermediaries acting on Huawei’s behalf […]”’ 🇪🇺
WTO rejects EU claims in intellectual property dispute with China – Reuters: ‘alleging that Chinese courts were preventing European companies from protecting their telecom technology patents’
‘However, it did say that China had failed to comply with all WTO transparency obligations.’ 🇪🇺
Chinezen die in het Russische leger dienen, komen bedrogen uit. „Je bent kanonnenvoer” – NRC: „Russische wervingscampagnes komen op Chinese sociale media terecht. Soldaten met ervaring aan het front waarschuwen hun landgenoten: trap er niet in.” 🇷🇺🇺🇦
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski calls on China to step up diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in Ukraine – Bloomberg 🇵🇱🇺🇦
Chairmen of China-Russia friendship committee meet in Beijing – Xinhua 🇷🇺
Chinese Catholics mourn Pope Francis, mull over Church’s future – AFP: ‘A transparent glass bookshelf displaying Chinese Communist Party texts and writings of President Xi Jinping stood adjacent to a depiction of the Last Supper.’ 🇻🇦
Taiwan former Vice President Chen Chien-jen 陳建仁 (DPP) to attend Pope's funeral, foreign ministry says – Reuters 🇻🇦
President Lai pays respects at Taipei memorial for Pope Francis – Focus Taiwan 🇻🇦
Vraag is nu of President Lai, net als voorganger Ma Ying-jeou, bij de inauguratie van de nieuwe paus zal zijn. Ma is toen gefotografeerd terwijl hij woorden wisselde met Duitslands bondskanselier Angela Merkel.
Court lets Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun 陳日君 leave Hong Kong for pope’s funeral after passport earlier confiscated over security law arrest – HKFP: ‘In recent years, Zen has accused the Vatican of “selling out” China’s underground Catholic community’ 🇻🇦
Chinese and Swiss foreign ministers hold talks, calling for upholding multilateralism and free trade – Xinhua 🇨🇭
Miliband in solar panel U-turn as UK ministers bow to Chinese slavery fears – FT 🇬🇧
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📉💥
France floats resurrecting doomed EU-US trade deal it used to oppose – POLITICO Europe 🇫🇷
France to seek protection from Chinese steel imports after ArcelorMittal job cuts – Reuters 🇫🇷🇪🇺
German firms in China count cost of rising US-China trade tensions – SCMP: ‘38 per cent are accelerating localisation efforts in China.’ 🇩🇪
Chinese commerce ministry holds meeting with foreign companies on tariff impact – Reuters
Chinese factories slow production and send workers home as US tariffs bite – FT: ‘About 15 per cent of all Chinese exports last year went to the US.’ 🇺🇸
Tariff-hit China exporters reluctant to heed government calls to sell locally – Reuters: ‘Many export-reliant factories have decried weak domestic demand, price wars, low profits, payment delays and high product return rates in the Chinese market.’
VS-China 🇨🇳
The Trump administration is considering slashing its tariffs on Chinese imports—in some cases by more than half—in a bid to de-escalate tensions with Beijing, people familiar with the matter say – WSJ 🇺🇸
White House would consider cutting China tariffs as part of talks, source says – Reuters: ‘adding that any action would not be made unilaterally.’ 🇺🇸
Trump denies China’s claim of no trade talks – Reuters: ‘“They had a meeting this morning,” Trump told reporters, declining to say to whom he was referring.’ 🇺🇸
‘Fake news’: Chinese government dismisses claims of US trade talks – SCMP: ‘a question prompted by assertions from Trump that Washington has been in contact with officials from Beijing’
‘serve to reaffirm China’s stance: that the US bears sole responsibility for toning down the conflict.’ 🇺🇸
China and US have not held consultations or negotiations on tariff-related issue, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson says – Xinhua: ‘These are all fake news, Guo said, adding that it is the U.S. side that has launched a tariff war with China, and China’s attitude has been consistent and clear. “We will fight, if fight we must. Our doors are open, if the U.S. wants to talk,” he said, adding that China only seeks dialogue and negotiation based on equality, respect and mutual benefit.’ 🇺🇸
No economic or trade negotiations conducted between China and US, commerce ministry says – Xinhua: ‘adding that any claims of progress in economic and trade talks between the two countries are groundless and lack factual basis.’ 🇺🇸
China pushes for tariff cancellation to end US trade war – Reuters: ‘The U.S. should remove all “unilateral tariff measures” against China “if it truly wanted” to solve the trade issue, Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yadong said on Thursday.’ 🇺🇸
Trump’s ‘anxious’ tariff comments put China in control, analysts say – SCMP: ‘telling an Oval Office press conference that tariffs on Chinese goods “will not be as high as 145 per cent” and that “it’ll come down substantially, but won’t be zero”.’ 🇺🇸
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims that President Donald Trump hasn’t offered to take down US tariffs on China on a unilateral basis – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
US agencies alarmed by China’s curbs on exports of rare-earth minerals – The Washington Post: ‘President Donald Trump’s trade war risks cutting key industries and defense contractors off from supplies of metals crucial to production’ 🇺🇸
Al jaren verschijnen hier karrevrachten aan stukken over. Hadden ze dit niet van tevoren kunnen bedenken?
VS-Taiwan 🇹🇼
Taiwan willing to buy more US products to reduce trade deficit, representative Alexander Yui 俞大㵢 says – Taipei Times 🇺🇸
Cabinet approves NT$410 billion [€11bn] special budget proposal – Focus Taiwan
VS-wereld 🌏
A sudden inflow of cheap Chinese goods may prove ‘very disruptive’ to emerging economies, particularly in Asia, according to an analysis by Nomura – Bloomberg: ‘Nomura’s research also revealed that China was flooding economies with cheap goods even before Donald Trump took office’
Tariff and trade wars undermine legitimate rights and interests of all countries, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 says – Xinhua: ‘hurt the multilateral trading system, and impact the world economic order.’ ‘When holding talks with visiting Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’ 🇺🇸
China and US seek to portray each other as bullies at UN Security Council – Reuters: ‘China convened the meeting on “the impact of unilateralism and bullying practices on international relations”’ 🇺🇸
China and Brics will ‘defend’ global order as Trump withdraws, top Brazilian diplomat says – FT: ‘Ultimately, Amorim thinks a world order without Washington is impossible.’ 🇧🇷
Techoorlog 💽💥
Advies TNO: Nederland moet aan de bak om China en de VS bij te kunnen blijven benen – de Volkskrant 🇳🇱
Europese miljoenenboetes aan Apple en Meta zijn ‘assertief en hoognodig’ signaal – NRC 🇪🇺
Chinese elektrische auto’s booming in Europa ondanks heffingen – NOS
Exclusive: China EV giant BYD 比亚迪 reboots Europe operations after strategic stumbles, sources say – Reuters 🇪🇺
China’s Xiaomi 小米 plans EV research centre in Germany – Nikkei Asia: ‘Some Chinese media outlets have reported that a small center in Germany has already been established with a staff of fewer than 50 people.’ 🇩🇪
China’s Leapmotor 零跑汽车 to supply EV platform to Hongqi 红旗, also in talks with Ferrari – Reuters 🇮🇹
Nissan 日産 to make CN¥10 bln [€1.2bn] additional investment in China, executive says – Reuters 🇯🇵
TSMC 台積電 aims to produce next-generation 1.4-nm chips by 2028 – Nikkei Asia: ‘TSMC is set to start construction this year of a third plant in Arizona that will make 2-nm and more advanced chips’
ByteDance 字节跳动, Alibaba 阿里巴巴, and Tencent 腾讯 stockpile billions worth of Nvidia chips – Nikkei Asia
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 urges greater unity between armed forces and civilian sectors – Xinhua: ‘in a recent instruction, which was conveyed at a national conference honoring model cities and counties in promoting mutual support between the military and civilian sectors held here on Wednesday.’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
How the US is reinforcing the ‘first island chain’ to deter China – SCMP 🇺🇸
Philippines to receive second batch of BrahMos missile system from India – Reuters 🇵🇭🇮🇳
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Anouk Eigenraam: „Ik ben gevolgd, aangehouden en ondervraagd” –
Personnel problems are becoming personal problems for Xi Jinping – Willy Wo-Lap Lam for Jamestown’s China Brief: ‘the assumption has been that Xi has been steering the housecleaning to get rid of real and potential enemies among the top brass. The recent spate of personnel changes, however, has lent credence to the argument that Xi’s military foes are gunning down his protégés to weaken the base of the “party core.”’
‘this does not necessarily mean that he faces a clear challenger or that he is in danger of imminent removal. […] However, it is unlikely he will be given the latitude to pursue his personal program in the way he has been in years past.’
Filmrecensie: Op hondenjacht in een surrealistisch mooie Chinese western – NRC
In de fijn-humoristische Chinese film ‘Black dog’ zijn mens en hond allebei even misbegrepen – De Standaard
Boekrecensie: Eén identiteit voor alle Chinezen, of ze nou willen of niet – FD
Met gewaagde grappen probeert zij de spanning tussen Taiwan en China te doorbreken – FD
Multi-Pole-arity: How Poland can help Europe think big on China – Alicja Bachulska in ECFR 🇵🇱
How China is poaching Taiwan’s semiconductor industry to power its digital authoritarianism: A supply chain analysis – Open Technology Fund
Taiwan’s biggest problem in steeling itself for war with China is cultural – Yuster Yu and Michael A. Hunzeker for War on the Rocks
Podcasts
The China-US trade war and implications for the EU, with Jacob Gunter – MERICS China Podcast 🍎
The US-China Tariff War: A conversation with Dr Scott Kennedy – CSIS ChinaPower Podcast 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Ex-US Army sergeant gets 7 years for selling military secrets to Chinese conspirator – The New York Times 🇺🇸
Singapore’s PSA weighs selling 20% stake in CK Hutchison 長江和記實業’s ports business, sources say – Reuters: ‘joining the Hong Kong conglomerate in its controversial plans to sell.’
‘Whether PSA, a ports operator wholly owned by Singapore state investor Temasek, ultimately decides to sell will depend on whether CK Hutchison goes ahead with the transaction, the two people said.’ 🇸🇬🇺🇸🇵🇦
China to lend moon rocks to NASA-funded US universities – Reuters 🇺🇸
South Korea expressed concern during maritime dialogue over Chinese structure in disputed area of sea – Reuters 🇰🇷
Komeito leader strives to raise profile on China trip – The Yomiuri Shimbun 🇯🇵
China’s foreign ministry backs Iran’s nuclear talks with US, opposes ‘illegal’ sanctions – Reuters: ‘The meeting [in Beijing] came ahead of further U.S.-Iran nuclear talks this Saturday and after Washington imposed sanctions on some Chinese refiners for buying Iranian oil in recent weeks.’ 🇮🇷
China and Azerbaijan establish comprehensive strategic partnership – Xinhua 🇦🇿
China coastguard claims ‘sovereign jurisdiction’ of Sandy Cay in South China Sea [in Philippine EEZ] – SCMP: ‘the Sandy Cay is the closest reef to the Subi Reef, China’s second largest artificial island and military base in the South China Sea.’ 🇵🇭
Manila accuses Beijing of ‘sinister’ campaign to sway Philippines midterms and push South China Sea narratives – The Straits Times 🇵🇭
China and Kenya upgrade ties amid ‘turbulent international situation’ – Reuters: ‘This would provide a backbone to safeguard the “common interests of developing countries”, it said, and defend the multilateral system, via “inclusive economic globalisation”.’ 🇰🇪
China economie
Chinaese authorities further shorten market access negative list – Xinhua
China’s ‘involution’ 内卷 trap is hurting nation’s competitiveness, state media Economic Daily warns – SCMP: ‘refreshed its calls for local-level governments and businesses to refrain from unhealthy, exhausting competition that is feared to be damaging the competitiveness of the nation’s economy’
Chinese e-commerce platforms to end refund-without-returns amid weak economy, sources say – Reuters: ‘Chinese authorities have asked e-commerce platform operators to stop insisting on merchants refunding customers without requiring the return of goods’
China soybean meal price spike due to lengthy border inspections – Dim Sums: ‘Chinese buyers have slacked off on purchases of U.S. soybeans and the peak season for U.S. bean shipments is winding down.’
China binnenland
Top political advisor Wáng Hùníng 王沪宁 stresses role of united front in advancing Chinese modernisation – Xinhua: ‘while addressing a seminar on the Party’s work related to the united front in the new era.’
China launches Shenzhou-20 mission to Chinese space station, state media reports – Reuters
Car crashes into crowd outside primary school in Chinese city of Jinhua, residents say – SCMP
As China’s birth rates drop, has Guangdong become the country’s ‘golden child’? – SCMP
100+ Global Journalism Leaders Urge China to Free Journalist Dǒng Yùyù 董郁玉 – The National Press Club
Hong Kong en Macau
No alternative but to disband Hong Kong’s Democratic Party, leader Lo Kin-hei 羅健熙 says – HKFP
European press group says detention of 2 journalists in Macau a ‘serious attack on press freedom’ – HKFP 🇪🇺
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China’s PLA slams US hype over warship’s Taiwan Strait transit – Xinhua 🇨🇳🇺🇸
US considering giving drones to Taiwanese navy, source says – Taipei Times: ‘The US previously provided drones of the same type to the Coast Guard Administration in 2022, the source said’ 🇺🇸
Philippines government loosens decades-old ban on officials’ visits to Taiwan – RFA 🇵🇭
Foreign minister Lin Chia-lung 林佳龍 (DPP) arrives in Eswatini to celebrate king’s birthday – Focus Taiwan 🇸🇿
Submarine sea acceptance tests not yet scheduled, defence minister Wellington Koo 顧立雄 (DPP) says – Taipei Times: ‘as shipbuilders are working to correct some shortcomings’
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council issues new interpretation of cross-Strait act – Taipei Times: ‘specifying that holding a permanent residency certificate issued by China would also result in the loss of “Taiwan status.”’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Parties jockey to shape narrative ahead of KMT rally Saturday – Focus Taiwan
Donovan’s Deep Dives: KMT Chairman Eric Chu 朱立倫’s bold strategic charge hobbled by Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an 蔣萬安 – Courtney Donovan Smith for Taipei Times
Prosecutors question three KMT staffers over fraud – Taipei Times: ‘The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Yilan County chapter was searched yesterday […], in an investigation that local media reported is in relation to recall petition fraud.’
5 suspects in alleged Chinese smuggling scam released on bail – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
Taiwan should confront Meta, DPP legislator says – Taipei Times: ‘over allegations that the social media company aided Beijing in censoring speech’ 🇨🇳