De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 24 mei: militaire oefeningen rond Taiwan
Vanochtend werd ik wakker met een telefoon vol nieuwsberichten over een onaangekondigde tweedaagse Chinese militaire oefening rondom Taiwan. Peking zegt dat dit een straf is voor de onafhankelijkheids-‘provocaties’ van de net geïnaugureerde president Lai Ching-te. Maar het is natuurlijk intimidatie. De geblokkeerde vlakken rondom het eiland doen denken aan de oefeningen na het bezoek van Speaker Nancy Pelosi aan Taipei en de ontmoeting tussen Tsai Ing-wen en Speaker Kevin McCarthy in de VS.
Zijn deze oefeningen gevaarlijk? Ja, het blijven militaire bewegingen vlak bij Taiwan. Ze voeren de spanning op. Ongelukken zijn altijd mogelijk. Maar, is dit een voorbode van een invasie? Dit weekend nog niet. Dit lijkt op propagandageweld voor eigen publiek en buitenlandse consumptie.
Wel is zorgelijk dat dit nu het Chinese model lijkt te zijn voor een reguliere reactie op ‘fout’ gedrag van Taiwan. Dat het Joint Sword-2024A heet, suggereert ook dat we in 2024 in ieder geval nog een Joint Sword-2024B kunnen verwachten. Ook is er deze keer een rol voor de kustwacht in de wateren rondom de buitenliggende eilanden Kinmen, Matsu, en Wuchiu. China was daar al bezig normen te verleggen.
Er is debat onder experts over hoe ver Lai nu eigenlijk is gegaan in zijn inaugurele rede. Ik meen zelf dat hij vooral op een gevoeligere plek heeft samengevat wat Tsai Ing-wen eerder al elders had gesteld. Uiteindelijk was Peking volgens mij in ieder geval met een strafexpeditie gekomen. Lai is van de DPP. Zijn overwinning staat voor een trend die Peking verafschuwt. Onder de eigen gelederen wil men íets zien van de CCP-top. Na een paar dagen (delibereren binnen het Politburo?) komt men met dit – ongetwijfeld al deels voorbereidde – signaal.
Vandaag demonstreren tegenstanders van de door de KMT en TPP voorgestelde hervormingen van het parlement verder, op plekken door heel Taiwan. Om te begrijpen wat er gebeurt in het parlement (en om iets meer distantie t.o.v. de beide kampen in te nemen) verwijs ik naar de onnavolgbare Nathan Batto. Hij schrijft over de recente onlusten in de Wetgevende Yuan. Normaal begint de minderheid (nu de DPP) zulk handgemeen om een punt te maken. Het lijkt er echter nu op dat de KMT en TPP ondanks hun meerderheid alsnog de boel in werking hebben gezet.
Los van de tactische fout – de twee partijen hebben samen een meerderheid en hadden anders toch wel hun wetsvoorstellen aan kunnen nemen – hebben ze nu een grote chaotische strijd in gang gezet waarin demonstranten ‘democratisch Taiwan’ komen beschermen tegen hen net nu de CCP, dialoogpartner van de KMT, het eiland van buiten bedreigt. Niet handig.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
EU wants spies on university campuses to fight Chinese tech espionage – POLITICO Europe: ‘EU member countries adopted sweeping measures Thursday to address those concerns.’ 🇪🇺
LVMH deepens partnership with Alibaba to boost tech presence in China – Reuters 🇫🇷
UK not heeding warning over China threat, says ex-cybersecurity chief – The Guardian: ‘a “gamechanging” shift in China’s cyber-espionage tactics towards infiltrating critical infrastructure including energy and communications networks’ 🇬🇧
Government in talks with Austria after Taiwan-issued driving permits declined – Focus Taiwan: ‘notified by the Austrian government of its decision to no longer accept Taiwan-issued IDPs.’ 🇦🇹
Oorlog in Oekraïne 🇺🇦🇷🇺
UK defence minister says intelligence has evidence of Chinese lethal aid to Russia – Reuters: ‘Shapps told a conference in London that U.S. and British defence intelligence had evidence that “lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine, I think it is a significant development”’ 🇬🇧
China sending Russia ‘lethal aid’ for Ukraine war, UK defence secretary says, in split with US – The Guardian: ‘Sullivan appeared to take issue with some of Shapps’s comments.’ 🇬🇧
Motie van het lid Paternotte c.s. over blijven aangeven aan China dat de levering van letale wapens aan Rusland een gamechanger zou zijn voor de relatie met zowel Nederland als de EU – Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal 🇳🇱
Brazil and China call for Russia-Ukraine peace talks with both countries – Reuters 🇧🇷
Common Understandings Between China and Brazil on Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China: ‘The two sides call on all relevant parties to observe three principles for deescalating the situation, namely no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting and no provocation by any party.’ 🇧🇷
China’s exporters, eager for Russia foothold, tread lightly to avoid financial bear trap – SCMP 🇷🇺
Chinese reactie op Lai
militaire signalen
China doet grootschalige militaire oefeningen als 'straf’ voor inauguratietoespraak Taiwanese president – de Volkskrant
China reageert met grote militaire oefening op ‘extreem schadelijke’ toespraak van nieuwe president Taiwan – NRC
Defensie Taiwan reageert op strafoefening China – NOS Nieuws
Ik weet niet of we automatisch mee moeten gaan met het Chinese frame dat dit ‘straf’ is. Peking had toch wel ‘gestraft’ en dit is ook voor een belangrijk deel intimidatie of ‘psychologische oorlogsvoering’.
China launches ‘punishment’ war games around Taiwan – Reuters: ‘The drills, dubbed “Joint Sword - 2024A”, are scheduled to last for two days. However, unlike a similar “Joint Sword” exercise in April last year, these drills are tagged “A”, opening the door to potential follow-ups.’
‘A senior Taiwan official, speaking anonymously given the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters that the drills are part of a scenario Taiwan had anticipated and that the island’s government had a “comprehensive grasp” of Chinese military movements.’
‘This is designed to demonstrate China’s ability to control the seas and prevent the involvement of foreign forces, [Su Tzu-yun] said. “The political signals here are greater than the military ones,” he added.’
China kicks off PLA blockade around Taiwan, 3 days after Lai speech – SCMP: ‘Zhang Chi, an associate professor at the National Defence University in the mainland, told state broadcaster CCTV on Thursday morning that the PLA forces are practicing the blockade of Taiwan.
“We know that Taiwan is an isolated island… Most of Taiwan’s energy consumption relies on imports, especially its oil consumption, which is almost entirely dependent on imports,” Zhang said.
“Therefore, once it is besieged and blocked, it can easily lead to economic collapse and become a dead island. This time, the PLA’s exercise focused on practicing the new model of blockade.”’
De foto die SCMP gebruikt is een oude Chinese vervalsing.
China kicks off ‘punishment’ drills around Taiwan – FT: ‘“This is the first of many measures that Beijing is likely to take in order to punish and warn both Taiwan and the US,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “This will be followed by other military, economic and diplomatic measures.”’
Chinese military drills around Taiwan could be first in series, expert says – Focus Taiwan
How significant are China’s military drills around Taiwan? – The Guardian
No signs of PLA live-fire exercises detected in Taiwan Strait, according to Taiwanese military – Focus Taiwan: ‘Also, none of the PLA warplanes and warships detected during the ongoing drills have entered the nation’s contiguous zone’
PLA conducts joint military drills surrounding Taiwan Island – Xinhua: ‘The drills are being conducted in the Taiwan Strait, the north, south and east of Taiwan Island, as well as areas around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin.’
Xinhua Commentary: ‘Taiwan independence’ provocations invite quick and resolute punishment – Xinhua: ‘The severer the provocations are, the stronger the countermeasures will be.’
Taiwan says it expels China Coast Guard boats near Matsu and Kinmen – Focus Taiwan
Chinese PLA drills ‘irrational provocation’ after Lai’s inauguration, says Taiwanese defence ministry – Focus Taiwan
MOFA urges China to stop raising tensions in Taiwan Strait and region – Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of China (Taiwan)
President Lai pledges to safeguard Taiwan despite ‘external threats’ – Focus Taiwan: ‘The president did not, however, directly comment on the previously unannounced military exercises’
Taiwan’s political parties call on Beijing to engage in talks with Taipei – Taipei Times
Taiwan: Statement by the Spokesperson on China’s military drills – EU EEAS: ‘All parties should exercise restraint’ 🇪🇺
Statement on PRC Escalation in Taiwan Strait Tensions – Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC)
獨家》因應中國威脅 花蓮基地10架F-16V「空優掛載」實彈戰備 – 自由時報：「空軍花蓮基地一早即提升戰備，警戒機由平日4架增加為10架F-16V戰機，訓練則維持正常，但訓練空域則接近中國公布的演習區，實質上隨時可完成空中『佔位』，不讓共機有機會接近東部空域。」
diplomatieke signalen
China mounts diplomatic offensive as Taiwan’s Lai takes office – Nikkei Asia 🇷🇺🇰🇿🇰🇬🇺🇿🇧🇾🇷🇸🇵🇰🇻🇪🇹🇴🇰🇮
Leaders of many countries and international organisations reiterate commitment to one-China principle, says foreign ministry spokesperson – Xinhua 🇰🇿🇺🇿🇰🇬🇵🇰🇻🇪🇰🇮🇬🇾🇹🇴🇷🇺🇷🇸🇱🇰🇧🇼🇱🇦🇵🇸🇮🇷🇺🇳
Let ook op hoe Peking steun claimt van VN-organisaties.
Interview: Pakistan firmly upholds one-China principle, says president – Xinhua 🇵🇰
Chinese embassy in Kenya hosts unusual event about Taiwan – China Global South Project 🇰🇪
‘China urges the US to seriously abide by the one-China policy and the three China-US joint communiqués and not to schedule any congressional visit to Taiwan. Otherwise, all consequences arising therefrom must be borne by the US.’ – Spokesperson发言人办公室 , Twitter
achtergrond
Chinese military practiced Taiwan invasion manoeuvres in 2023, says US general – Reuters
Lai Ching-te: Continuing down Tsai’s path – Jenny Li and Peng-Hsuan Chen for Ketagalan Media: ‘In areas where he appears to go further than his predecessor, he merely makes explicit what was often left unsaid but does not offer more than what Tsai had laid out.’
Analysing Lai Ching-te’s inaugural address: More continuity than difference – Rush Doshi and David Sacks for CFR
China has a point about Taiwan’s new leader – Kathrin Hille for FT: ‘critics say Lai deviated from his promises this week during an inaugural address that used conspicuously different language, while also spelling out some of the facts that most jar Beijing.’
Sommige punten in dit stuk stipte ik zelf ook al aan in mijn analyse in de nieuwsbrief van woensdag.
Handelsoorlog?
How Germany lost the battle to prevent tariffs on Chinese cars – POLITICO Europe: ‘The Commission is expected to impose preliminary anti-subsidy duties on Chinese EVs by early July, but rules require the EU to already communicate such a decision to carmakers — and other parties like EU importers of Chinese cars — four weeks in advance, meaning that the announcement of the upcoming tariffs is expected to land in about two weeks.’ 🇪🇺
As trade war brews, EU scrambles to gauge what Chinese retaliation lies ahead – SCMP: ‘EU insiders see Beijing dipping into “an old recipe book”, but are hoping its member states show more backbone this time around.’ 🇪🇺
G7 needs to stand united on Chinese overcapacity, France’s finance minister says – Reuters 🇫🇷
Yellen cites China overproduction as G7 ministers meeting opens – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
French cognac makers: Don’t make us collateral damage in EU-China trade row – POLITICO Europe 🇫🇷🇪🇺
China is winning the minerals war as the West’s efforts to make a dent languish – WSJ
China’s blistering solar power growth runs into grid blocks – Reuters: ‘Forecasts show China’s solar build this year will be heavily outpaced by growth in its photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturing capacity’
The main industry body for China’s solar companies, which dominate global supply chains, called for an end to a profit-slashing price war to halt a slump that some executives forecast could last through 2025 – Bloomberg
China’s new shipbuilding orders jump 59% in first quarter – Yicai Global: ‘China’s shipbuilding orders reached 24.1 million deadweight tons in the three months ended March 31, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the global total’
NIO 蔚来 chief says EU probe of Chinese electric cars does not ‘make sense’ – FT: ‘“We are from China but we are also a global company,” Li said on Thursday after Nio opened its first showroom in Amsterdam.’ 🇪🇺🇳🇱
US ‘overcapacity’ narrative against China’s new energy sector pure protectionism, foreign ministry spokesperson says – Xinhua 🇺🇸
Editorial: Whether to follow the US’ tariff policies tests Europe’s strategic autonomy – The Global Times 🇪🇺
‘The significant increase in tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) highlights a concerning neglect of priorities such as clean energy and free market principles👉’ – Embassy of China in the Netherlands
Opinie: Om de klimaatdoelen te halen hebben we China hard nodig – André Nollkaemper in NRC: „het is een volstrekte illusie dat de EU de strijd met China kan winnen.”
Prima, maar dat betekent nog niet dat we passief staan te kijken terwijl onze eigen industriële basis wordt weggevaagd.
‘商务部发言人23日在例行记者会上回应路透社关于中国或考虑对大排量进口汽车加征关税的有关提问：⬇️⬇️’ – China Chamber of Commerce to the EU (CCCEU) 欧盟中国商会, Twitter
Tech War 💽💥
ASML steekt 80 miljoen euro in chiponderzoek TU Eindhoven – NRC: „De universiteit trekt zelf 30 miljoen uit voor een nieuw cleanroomgebouw” 🇳🇱
Ook bij een invasie van Taiwan krijgt China de geheimen van ASML niet te pakken – Trouw: „Echt verrassend is het niet, vindt Sense Hofstede, China-deskundige aan instituut Clingendael.” 🇳🇱
TSMC 台積電 to build 7 new plants in 2024, company official says – Focus Taiwan
China’s SMIC 中芯 ranks as world’s third-largest chip foundry by sales in first quarter on back of strong domestic demand – SCMP: ‘6 per cent of global chip foundry sales in the first quarter, behind TSMC’s 62 per cent share and Samsung’s 13 per cent share’
Met die percentages erbij valt het allemaal weer wat mee.
‘Project Lion Cage’ seeks to determine how much data Chinese electric vehicles collect and send back to China – Bloomberg: ‘haven’t uncovered any bombshells about the NIO ES8, but that they have found some potential areas of concern.’
‘No surprise that NIO cars are mysteriously sending data to China. The real mystery is why PRC companies under heavy scrutiny do moronic things like this that are going to be detected. This happens with other PRC tech, and IMO indicates how little PRC-based employees know/think about foreign concerns. Another example: Hikvision. (1/6)’ – Conor Healy, Twitter
China asks carmakers to use up to 25% local chips by 2025 – Nikkei Asia
China’s Huawei 华为 launches alliance for ultrafast EV charging – Nikkei Asia: ‘The consortium, announced at the Beijing International Automotive Exhibition in April, includes BYD and 10 other EV manufacturers.’
Why is the steering wheel Chinese?! Russian PM jabs domestic carmaker over foreign parts – POLITICO Europe 🇷🇺
Taiwan’s prized semiconductors not unbreakable ‘silicon shield’ they once were as China and the West develop own bargaining chips – Alibaba’s SCMP: ‘Fearing that Taiwanese supplies could become inaccessible in the wake of a cross-Strait conflict, government policymakers around the world have been discussing how advanced chips could be made domestically.’
New minister plans Taiwanese digital economy’s size to reach over NT$1 trillion [€28.6bn] – Taipei Times
Taiwan’s new science and technology minister Wu Cheng-wen 吳誠文 is confident TSMC 台積電 will be able to safeguard its proprietary advanced technology as it expands overseas – Bloomberg: ‘he expects the company to retain its key research and development functions in Taiwan’
China switches on first large-scale sodium-ion battery – PV Magazine
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
‘Everyone is absolutely terrified’: Inside India’s secret war on its American critics – Vox: ‘a sustained campaign where Narendra Modi’s government threatens American citizens and permanent residents who dare speak out on the declining state of the country’s democracy.’ 🇮🇳
Why so many middle-class Chinese migrants take risky, illegal route to US – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
Taiwanese perceptions of conflict: Continuity in the face of change – Lev Nachman, Shelley Rigger, and Nathan Kar Ming Chan for Brookings
Yes, Japan will defend Taiwan – Ryan C. Bercaw for The Diplomat 🇯🇵
Japan and Malaysia leaders agree to boost cooperation amid China’s rise – Kyodo News 🇯🇵🇲🇾
Malaysia PM in Japan says his country keeps good ties with US but not China phobia, wants to engage both – AP 🇲🇾
The relationship between Xi and Putin is built to last – Gideon Rachman for FT: ‘mutual reliance means that Moscow and Beijing will remain bound together, whatever the underlying tensions in their relationship.’ 🇷🇺
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
The operating mechanism of China’s Anti Foreign Sanction Law –
Q&A: Daniel Mattingly on Xi Jinping’s Cultivation of the PLA – The Wire China
The permanent magnet supply crunch that wasn’t – Macro Polo
The cause for China’s coercion in the skies may lay under the water – The Lowy Interpreter: ‘the connection between these aircraft and the undersea domain is fundamental.’ 🇦🇺
De domesticatie van rijst ging heel traag, net als bij tarwe – NRC
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China takes measures against 12 US military-linked firms – Reuters: ‘in response to the U.S. arming of Taiwan and sanctions on Chinese companies.’ 🇺🇸
Exclusive: Boeing deliveries to China delayed by state regulator review, source says – Reuters 🇺🇸
Chinese police officer fired by NYPD following FBI spying investigation – Documented 🇺🇸
Het spiegelpaleis van Guō Wénguì 郭文贵 reikte tot in de Trump Tower, maar dreigt nu voor zijn ogen ineen te storten – de Volkskrant 🇺🇸
South China Sea: is a report on Vietnam’s reclamation a smokescreen from Beijing’s row with Manila? – SCMP 🇻🇳
Cambodia defends China-backed canal project questioned by Vietnam – Nikkei Asia 🇰🇭
South Korea, China, and Japan to hold first summit in four years on May 26-27 – Reuters 🇰🇷🇯🇵
China and Japan to discuss resuming ruling party talks after 6-year hiatus, NHK reports – Reuters: ‘Arrangements are being made for Liu Jianchao, who leads the Communist Party’s body in charge of managing ties with foreign political parties, to travel to Japan for a meeting on May 29, NHK reported citing sources.’ 🇯🇵
Japan complains about Chinese ambassador’s comment on Taiwan – Reuters 🇯🇵
China pressures Afghanistan’s Taliban to stop attacks on its interests in Pakistan, dangles economic carrot – SCMP: ‘Chinese diplomats based in Islamabad have told influential Pakistanis that they felt “back-stabbed” by the Afghan Taliban government for refusing to restrain the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) faction that Islamabad holds responsible for a vehicular suicide bombing attack in March, which claimed the lives of five Chinese nationals working in northern Pakistan, along with their Pakistani bus driver.’ 🇦🇫🇵🇰
Xi’s special representative Zhāng Guóqīng 张国清 attends memorial service for Iran’s late president – Xinhua 🇮🇷
Russia, China, and Iran move closer after President Raisi’s death – Nikkei Asia 🇮🇷🇷🇺
China economie
China’s ultralong-term bonds see price swings, new trading halt – Nikkei Asia
China has two very different housing markets: A few cities will bottom out this year, while others struggle with empty flats for decades to come – Shuli Ren for Bloomberg
Alibaba-controlled Chinese supermarkets drowning in red – Nikkei Asia: ‘The consortium, announced at the Beijing International Automotive Exhibition in April, includes BYD and 10 other EV manufacturers.’
PwC faces crisis in China over audit of failed property giant Evergrande 恒大 – FT
China binnenland
Xi chairs symposium, urges further reform to advance Chinese modernisation – Xinhua
About the ‘AI chatbot based on Xi Jinping’ story – What’s On Weibo
China’s food security dream faces land, soil, and water woes – Reuters
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan donates patrol boats to Tuvalu – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇻
Guatemala affirms support for Taiwan on Japan visit – Taipei Times 🇬🇹
Taiwanese fugitive in China has citizenship revoked – Taipei Times: ‘after it was found that he had obtained a household registration in China’ ‘a member of the CPPCC’s Hunan Province chapter’ ‘charged with offenses related to vote-buying in Taiwan’ 🇨🇳
China says it is willing to improve Vatican ties; Taiwan monitoring developments – Reuters 🇻🇦
Taiwan protesten
Protests to be held against KMT-TPP bills across Taiwan on Friday – Taipei Times
💡 Last week’s legislative brawl (and our new book!) – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic: ‘The KMT/TPP majority probably could have gotten most of what it wanted through the normal legislative processes. They are having a fight because someone wanted a public fight.’ ‘My interpretation of these choices is that they reflect years of pent-up frustration.’
‘[…], democracy is not dying here in Taiwan just because of this parliamentary ugliness. Democracy is a lot more resilient than that. This isn’t a paradigm of good democratic processes, but no one doubts that the KMT/TPP majority actually has enough legislators who are willing to vote for this bill.’
‘I think the KMT/TPP majority made a mistake by preempting DPP obstruction. Without intransigent obstruction, it is much harder to justify strong-arm tactics. I think the KMT/TPP majority was ready to ignore (or even jeer at) DPP protests. I don’t think they foresaw the large protests that would form outside the legislature in the streets in reaction to their tactics.’ ‘The KMT/TPP will almost certainly finish passing this bill, but digesting it might be more challenging than they expected.’
Lees Batto altijd! Dit stuk helpt ook iets meer perspectief te geven t.o.v. de DPP-claims.
Donovan’s Deep Dives: The struggles over legislative power – Courtney Donovan Smith for Taipei Times: ‘Ultimately, it is not likely that these investigative and contempt of legislature powers will survive a challenge in the Constitutional Court.’
‘TPP’s Clarification on Recent Disinformation Regarding Legislative Reform:’ – 台灣民眾黨 | Taiwan People's Party, Twitter
Environmental groups urge KMT to withdraw infrastructure bills – Taipei Times: ‘The bills were hastily proposed and would damage the environment, members of the Wild at Heart Legal Defense Association and other environmental groups said. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) called the three bills “money pit” legislation.’
Notes from Central Taiwan: KMT hollowing out Taiwan’s economy – Michael Turton for Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
In Taiwan, clash at pro-Israel concert highlights growing divisions over Gaza war – SCMP: ‘Two pro-Palestine protesters in Taiwan say they are pressing charges against attendees of a pro-Israel concert’
‘People at the event said the assailant was identified by police as head of security for the Israel Economic and Cultural Office (ISECO), Israel’s de facto embassy in Taipei.’