De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 22 december, Chinese exportcontrolemaatregelen, spionage, Rusland
De Financial Times schrijf op basis van een peiling van makelaars dat de verkoopprijzen van huizen in Peking substantieel gedaald zouden zijn. Dit gaat tegen de meer geruststellende officiële cijfers in. Dat doet vragen rijzen over de kwaliteit van de statistieken.
Deze twijfel valt samen met de recente berichtgeving over opgedwongen positiviteit aan de Chinese financiële pers en experts. Als somberheid over de Chinese economie een probleem van staatsveiligheid wordt, hoeveel waarde kun je dan hechten aan wél positieve verwachtingen? Daarbovenop komt nog de ontmanteling van de due-dilligence-infrastructuur in China.
Toenemende onzekerheid en afnemend overzicht is het thema van het jaar. De razendsnelle toename van geopolitieke complexiteit helpt ook niet. Ondertussen wordt het steeds moeilijker om een eerlijk publiek debat te hebben, ook buiten China. Een studie naar hashtags op TikTok laat zien, dat de inhoud op dat sociale-mediaplatform onnatuurlijk in lijn is met Peking – slechts het laatste zorgpunt over de app. Het recente spionagegeval in België is verder bewijs van de manipulatie van ons politieke discours.
Volgende week komt er misschien nog één nieuwsbrief in de tweede helft van de week. Daarna ben ik eventjes op vakantie. Ik wens iedereen prettige feestdagen.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
26 countries sign ‘European Wind Charter’ to shield EU industry – Euractiv: ‘All EU countries except Hungary have signed a joint declaration to protect Europe’s wind industry from “unfair trade practices” coming from Chinese manufacturers.’ 🇪🇺🇭🇺
Hungary’s Orbán courts China and wins a surge of clean car investments – POLITICO Europe: ‘Chinese battery-maker CATL last year decided to build a €7.3 billion battery plant in the eastern city of Debrecen. Other Chinese companies in the electric vehicle supply chain — Nio, Eve Energy, Huayou Cobalt, BYD and Ningbo Zhenyu Technology — have all announced new factory projects over the last months.’
‘“The Hungarian government pictures itself as a bridgehead for China,” said Dóra Győrffy, an economics professor at the Corvinus University of Budapest.’ 🇭🇺
China’s BYD set to announce Hungarian electric vehicle factory – FT 🇭🇺
Op de Hongaarse Laagvlakte verrijst een Chinese batterijfabriek – Trouw 🇭🇺
Chinese operaties 🇨🇳🕵🏻♂️
België 🇧🇪
Chinese contacten brengen Vlaams Belang verder in het nauw, Filip Dewinter zegt dat hij „misschien naïef” is geweest – De Standaard
Tienduizend mondmaskers die Filip Dewinter (Vlaams Belang) uitdeelde, „kwamen van Chinese spion” – Nieuwsblad
Vlaams Belang-kopstuk Filip Dewinter over Chinese contacten: „Ik ben geen spion, maar ben misschien wel naïef geweest” – VRT NWS
Deontologische commissie Vlaams Parlement buigt zich over Filip Dewinter: „Publieke blaam is enige dat eruit kan komen” – VRT NWS
Hoe de Chinese spionagezaak voor Vlaams Belang een netelige, politieke zaak wordt – VRT NWS
Belgian PM Alexandre de Croo (Open VLD) sees China as ‘sometimes very hostile’ country after espionage allegations – Reuters
Premier De Croo (Open VLD) in Kamer: „Extremistische partijen schurken graag aan tegen autoritaire leiders” – VRT NWS
Waarom zoekt China toenadering tot radicaal-rechts en hoe gaat het te werk? – VRT NWS
Belgium suspected China spy Frank Creyelman (Vlaams Belang) for years but lacked the legal basis to prosecute – FT: ‘[Justice minister] Van Tigchelt said Belgian authorities became aware of Creyelman’s potential relationship with China in 2018, following a tip-off linking him to a network allegedly working for Beijing.’
Espionage from the East: ‘Russia is a storm, China is climate change’ – Der Spiegel
Engelse vertaling van het eerdere Duitse artikel.
TikTok 📱
Topics suppressed in China are also underrepresented on TikTok, study says – The New York Times: ‘“We assess a strong possibility that content on TikTok is either amplified or suppressed based on its alignment with the interests of the Chinese government,” the report said. Joel Finkelstein, a founder of the Network Contagion Research Institute, said, “It’s not believable that this could happen organically.”’
A Tik-Tok-ing Timebomb: How TikTok’s global platform anomalies align with the Chinese Communist Party’s geostrategic objectives – Network Contagion Research Institute, Rutgers University
Canada 🇨🇦
: ‘recordings of his meeting with Canada Committee 100 Society, a Vancouver group with ties to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).’‘Two national security sources said a specific concern for CSIS was that [international trade minister] Mary Ng’s staff was allegedly privately meeting with a Toronto Consulate diplomat to consult on China-related issues.’
China-Rusland 🇨🇳🇷🇺
Deeper China-Russia relations a ‘strategic choice’ by both sides, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells Russian Prime Minister Mishustin – SCMP: ‘Mishustin’s visit, his second this year after another trip in May’
Xi meets with Russian PM – Xinhua: ‘China supports the Russian people in taking the development path of their own choice’
China and Russia pledge to defend each other’s core interests, ‘jointly face challenges’ as Moscow faces new sanctions – SCMP: ‘China said it supported Russia’s territorial integrity and opposed interference in Russia’s internal affairs by external forces.’
Chinese and Russian military officials vow to boost ‘strategic coordination’ – SCMP
China and Russia vow to press on with plans for wide-bodied passenger jet and Arctic shipping route – SCMP
Rusland klampt zich vast aan Chinese reddingsboei: handel tussen beide landen boomt – De Standaard
US semiconductors have continued to flow to Russian military-linked companies this year in spite of export restrictions aimed at cutting them off – Bloomberg: ‘many of them traveling through Hong Kong’
Nieuwe maatregelen 💽💥
China bans exports of rare-earth magnet technologies – Nikkei Asia: ‘Thursday’s changes to the technology export curbs trimmed the list to 134 items from 164 in the 2020 edition, but imposed more detailed technical requirements in high-tech fields where Washington and Beijing are vying for dominance.’
China bans export of rare earths processing tech over national security – Reuters
Strijd om zeldzame metalen: China zet nieuwe stap in handelsoorlog – BNR
Tech War 💽💥
„Blijf af van kennismigranten en stop met graaien in het groeifonds”, waarschuwen Brainport en TNO – NRC 🇳🇱
China’s surging steel exports risk new round of trade frictions – Nikkei Asia: ‘The Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association has lobbied the government to protect the industry, and Vietnam has begun considering trade remedies.’ ‘the Thai government moved toward introducing measures to prevent […] circumvention by Chinese exporters.’
Huawei tech helps smaller Chinese players take on BYD and Tesla – Nikkei Asia
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Bij het IMF begint nu een geopolitiek gevecht: blijft het een door het Westen gedomineerde club? – NRC: „Chinees vetorecht binnen het IMF is voor de Amerikanen – en stilletjes ook voor de Europeanen – een ,enorm risico’, zegt Tordoir. ,Het IMF zou dan onwerkbaar kunnen worden.’”
China’s renminbi pips Japanese yen to rank fourth in global payments – FT
A new wave of Chinese middle-class migrants is coming to the US – Bloomberg
Weekend
Longreads en achtergrond
Janka Oertel on the end of the China Illusion – The Wire China:
So there needs to be a public debate about the costs and benefits of the relationship with China?
Your question insinuates that we have a choice, and that we can cut our relationship with China; and if we do, only then there will be real challenges and costs. I would challenge that assumption, because of the way that the Chinese leadership is operating right now, with its weakening economy, its low consumption levels and the high pressure to push further on exports — with the electric vehicle sector being a strategic industry that the Chinese government particularly is pushing into, exactly the sort of area where Germany has been strong in the past.
That means we now face a triple whammy. We’re not only being cut out of the market in China in many industries; there’s also huge pressure on our own market from Chinese competitors and from Chinese competitors in third markets. That is going to have a transformational effect on the way we can run our economies here [in Europe].
And so it’s not that the German government can decide to act this way or the other; it’s a question of how we respond to the larger challenges that are actually there. Do we respond now, with some costs attached? Or do we drag this out, with some potentially even larger costs in the long run.
China’s debt isn’t the problem – Michael Pettis for FT Alphaville: ‘The real problem is the cumulative but unrecognised losses associated with the misallocation of investment over the past decade into excess property, infrastructure and, increasingly, manufacturing.’ ‘the problems don’t emerge from the liability side of China’s balance sheets. They emerge from the asset side.’
Recensie: Als Oeigoeren naar een ‘studiecentrum’ moeten weten ze dat dat een concentratiekamp is – NRC: „Het is onbekend of Tursun nog leeft. Zijn werk is vermoedelijk niet meer verkrijgbaar in Xinjiang. Maar hier wel. Dat is iets.”
China’s Mongolian culture wars backfire in France: How Beijing tried to suppress an exhibit on Genghis Khan’s legacy – Nikkei Asia: ‘The new exhibition has promoted closer ties between France and Mongolia.’
The Chinese Migrants of Chiang Mai: Voices from a new diaspora – Amy Zhang for The Dial: ‘What strikes me is how Thailand’s porousness — the fluidity of entries and exits due to the comparatively lax visa processes compared to other countries — mean that while some can stay and enroll their kids in school here, some may go back to China after a long visit, carrying new ideas and experiences with them home.’
Xi Jinping signals more growth but same strategy at China’s Central Economic Work Conference – Neil Thomas for the Asia Society Policy Institute
Deep Blue Scars: Environmental threats to the South China Sea – CSIS
Why China, not the United States, is making the rules for deep-sea mining – Carnegie: ‘America is not an UNCLOS member.’
The secret sauce for Taiwan’s chip superstardom – BBC News
Notes from Central Taiwan: Never mind the ... history – Michael Turton in Taipei Times met een antwoord op dát stuk in Foreign Affairs.
2024立委選舉看點:女性候選人比例達新高、12激戰選區大車拼、民眾黨將重塑政黨版圖? – 報導者
China laid groundwork for Senkaku/Diaoyutai Island incursions in 1992; Japan reacted with restraint for diplomatic reasons, declassified files show – The Yomiuri Shimbun
Podcasts
China en VS kijken met argusogen naar Taiwan – VPRO Bureau Buitenland 🍎 🤖
Afgelopen maandagmiddag was ik de gast op NPO Radio 1 om te praten over de Taiwanese verkiezingen.
Brad Setser on US-China trade, lessons from USTR, economics of great powers, and panda diplomacy –
🍎Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Top US general C.Q. Brown speaks to Chinese counterpart Liú Zhènlì 刘振立, ending freeze on military talks – POLITICO
Boeing’s first Dreamliner delivery to China since 2019 arrives – Reuters
China extends tariff exemption on certain US goods – Xinhua
China cracks down on fentanyl as drug control talks with US restart after Xi-Biden summit – SCMP
China vows to keep up military pressure on the Philippines as territorial dispute grows tenser – AP: ‘In particularly sharp comments, Wang was quoted as accusing the Philippines of having “changed its policy stance so far, reneged on the promises it has made, provoked troubles at sea, and undermined China’s legitimate and lawful rights.”’
Philippines urged to decide rationally and work with China to manage situation at sea – Xinhua
China warns against more casualties as Security Council again delays Gaza vote – SCMP: ‘The US vetoed two resolutions in October and early December. China and Russia vetoed a resolution drafted by the US in November which required all parties to condemn the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel.’
‘Zhang condemned in strong terms Israel’s actions in Gaza, as well as its settlement activities and “violence” towards Palestinians in the West Bank.’
The Philippines installs Japan-made radar to track China’s moves – Nikkei Asia
Xi says ready to promote China-Nicaragua ties with strategic partnership as new starting point – Xinhua
China suspends US$6.5 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina, reports say – SCMP
Canada intelligence operation put diplomats in legal ‘grey zone’, according to report – The Guardian
China economie
Beijing home price slide fans China property sector alarm – FT: ‘Interviews with more than two dozen real estate brokers across the capital, long one of China’s most desirable real estate markets, show transaction prices have fallen between 10 and 30 per cent from their peak in 2021. Their testimony runs counter to a widely watched National Bureau of Statistics index of existing home sale prices in Beijing’ ‘The discrepancy has also stoked concerns about the quality of China’s official statistics.’
These 10 charts show the wide impact of the property crisis throughout China’s economy – Bloomberg
China to continue sharing development achievements with world, foreign ministry spokesperson says – Xinhua
Heb jij dit jaar China al bedankt voor de geweldige economische groei die het zo onbaatzuchtig met je deelt?
Chinese Party School publication seeks to limit unexpected economic risks with ‘fallacy of composition’ warning – SCMP:
‘Last week, the Ministry of State Security hit back at “some people with ulterior motives” who are fabricating a China threat to disrupt market expectations and economic growth. It was followed by a Ministry of Public Security meeting on Friday, which also vowed to build “combating capabilities” in economic crime investigations. But such messages seem “incongruous” with the pro-growth and pro-business tone of the economic work conference [niet mee eens dat dit de dominantie toon was van de CEWC], said a Shanghai academic’
Shanghai police highlight crime crackdown in strategically important finance and tech sectors – SCMP
CCP leadership meeting calls for rallying powerful force to advance national rejuvenation – Xinhua: ‘Members of the Political Bureau unanimously acknowledged that establishing Comrade Xi Jinping's core position on the Party Central Committee and in the Party as a whole and establishing the guiding role of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era are of decisive significance to addressing various risks and challenges and advancing Chinese modernization.’
Chinese state banks cut deposit rates in bid to stimulate growth – FT
China to curb gaming spend; Tencent 腾讯 and NetEase 网易 plunge – Reuters
China binnenland
Dodental aardbeving China loopt op naar 144 – de Volkskrant
World leaders extend condolences to Chinese president over earthquake – Xinhua
Christian group and family raise outcry over detention of another ‘house church’ elder in China – AP
Hong Kong
Hong Kong court upholds media mogul Jimmy Lai 黎智英’s sedition charge in national security trial – HKFP
Bail denied to Hong Kong rights lawyer Chow Hang-tong 鄒幸彤 in landmark security case – Reuters: ‘because Chow might carry out acts that endanger national security.’
Als de herinnering aan jouw bestaan al nationale veiligheid in gevaar kan brengen, dan is er geen enkele voorwaarde waaronder borgtocht mogelijk is.
Hong Kong court jails sister of veteran labour activist for six months – Reuters
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Xi warned Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China – NBC News: ‘Chinese President Xi Jinping bluntly told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials.’
Dit zorgde voor enige opwinding, maar is eigenlijk geen nieuws. Dit is standaard taalgebruik voor China. Dat het sommige commentatoren toch zo schokt, is meer een teken hoe onbekend veel mensen zijn met Pekings reguliere retorisch agressie.
US says it does not see any tonal change from China on Taiwan – Reuters
Taiwan and Canada sign investment deal – Focus Taiwan
CNA says it welcomes Israel’s news cooperation proposal – Taipei Times
Taiwan verkiezingen
peilingen worden spannender 📊
Taiwan presidential race tightens in final weeks, polls show – Nikkei Asia
Could strategic voting deliver victory for Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 (KMT)? – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic
Alle uitleg over de cijfers achter mogelijke dump-save-effecten 棄保效應.
Taiwan presidential race tightens between Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 (KMT) and Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) as Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) sinks – Courtney Donovan Smith
Taiwan election: Young voters angry about stagnant wages and soaring home prices – The Straits Times
Het wordt steeds duidelijker hoe moeilijk het wordt voor de regerende DPP om de jonge stem voor zich te winnen. Deze kiezersgroep was traditioneel in overweldigende mate voor onafhankelijkheid en identificeert zich als enkel Taiwanees. Maar misschien juist omdat die identificatie voor hen zo vanzelfsprekend is, heeft de simpele Taiwan-vs-China oproep van de DPP geen vat meer op deze groep. Daarbij moet ik wel opmerken dat voor Tsai Ing-wen de mobilisatie van jongere kiezers ook moeilijk was.
Chinese inmenging 🇨🇳
China wields Mazu ‘peace goddess’ religion as weapon in Taiwan election – Reuters: ‘China has established influence over the Mazu faith in Taiwan through mediums such as its Religious Affairs Administration’
China’s tariff relief suspension move ‘regrettable’, says economic affairs ministry – Taipei Times: ‘The measures come in response to “unilateral, discriminatory trade restrictions” by Taiwan on imports of Chinese products, [China] said, referring to the results of a probe that Beijing announced last week.’
Chinese mainland to suspend preferential tariffs on Taiwan chemicals in response to discriminatory trade measures – Xinhua
Groups urge talking with Beijing over tariff relief cuts – Taipei Times
China allows Taiwan grouper fish imports to resume just weeks before island’s elections – SCMP
2024 ELECTIONS: PRC’s tariff cuts are election interference bid, DPP says – Taipei Times
陸配招待30多人赴中旅遊、鼓吹挺特定政黨 遭聲押禁見 – 中央社
What to know about China’s meddling in Taiwan’s upcoming election – Lev Nachman and Wen-Ti Sung for The Atlantic Council
eerste debat 📺
Presidential candidates trade blows at 1st televised policy forum – Focus Taiwan
Presidential candidates argue over each other’s properties – Taipei Times
In China’s eyes we’re all separatists, Taiwan presidential frontrunner Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) says – Reuters: ‘“Don’t foolishly allow China to define Taiwan independence,” he said’
standpunten 📋
2024 ELECTIONS: I would safeguard Taiwanese human rights in China, says Hou Yu-ih 访美 (KMT) – Taipei Times: ‘he vowed to reactivate the dispute-settling mechanism under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) and resume cross-strait exchanges in the private sector, as well as dialogue between Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS).’
‘“I would prevent Taiwanese in China from being interrogated, detained or harassed without legitimate reason through the communication mechanism between the SEF and ARATS. […]”’
Hoe dan?
2024 ELECTIONS: Curb special government’s use of budgets and expand allocation of tax revenues to local governments, says TPP – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Tainan City Museum opens as Tainan sets to mark 400th birthday – Focus Taiwan
Academia Sinica forecasts Taiwan’s GDP to grow 3.02% in 2024 – Focus Taiwan