De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 2 december: Charles Michel in Peking, Duitse strubbelingen, covidprotesten, weekend
In de nieuwsbrief gisteren had ik meer aandacht moeten besteden aan de opmerkingen van vicepremier Sun Chunlan dat we met de omikron-variant in een nieuwe fase zijn aanbeland. Daarom herhaald, naast berichten over mogelijke versoepelingen. De staatstelevisie is zelfs gestopt met het minderen van beelden van toeschouwers in Qatar zonder mondkapjes.
Het grootste nieuws voor Europa is het bliksembezoek van Europese Raadsvoorzitter Charles Michel. Kijk voor de analyse daarvan vooral in de eigen sectie. Dat hij is gegaan is niet verkeerd: het is belangrijk en noodzakelijk om contact te onderhouden op dit niveau. Net als bij zoveel geopolitieke acties van Brussel is het wel de vraag wat het bezoek oplevert, wanneer er weinig gedeelde wil achter zit. Michel lijkt iets te wanhopig en geïsoleerd. De verenigd front-strategie van de Chinese Communistische Partij is juist gehaaid op zulke ingangen. Wel vindt men in Brussel elkaar in zorgen over Amerikaans economisch beleid, wat men in China graag ziet als bevestiging van hun cynische, samenzweerderige kijk op Washingtons rol in Oekraïne. Nationalisten voorspellen dan ook onvermijdelijke behoud of zelfs verbetering van Sino-Europese banden op basis van ‘objectieve’ belangen.
In die context is de lopende Chinadiscussie in Duitsland essentieel. Na de gelekte kladversie van de nieuwe Chinastrategie van het ministerie van buitenlandse zaken onder Annalena Baerbock – eerder behandeld – is er nu een lek van een interne Chinastrategie van het ministerie van economische zaken onder Robert Habeck. Beide reflecteren de sceptische houding van de Duitse Groenen tegenover Peking. Noah Barkin ziet ondertussen zorgen onder buitenlandse diplomaten over gedachten elders in Berlijn dat men China nodig zou hebben tegen niet alleen Rusland, maar ook de Verenigde Staten.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Dutch economy minister defends trade links with China – FT talks to Micky Adriaansens: ‘she insisted that the Netherlands and Europe “should have their own strategy”.’ ‘“We have to think this through — what are the risks of doing business with China with regard to specific products and value chains,” she told the Financial Times.’ 🇳🇱
Spionnen hebben het op Nederlandse technologie voorzien, „we waren naïef” – Nieuwsuur 🇳🇱
Robert Habecks neue China-Strategie: Der Bruch mit China – The Pioneer: „Tenor: China verändert sich, also muss sich auch unsere Haltung gegenüber dem Land verändern. Im Klartext: Abkoppeln.“ „Es sei beunruhigend, wie China über deutsche Firmenbeteiligungen Einfluss nehme, so Habeck laut Telnehmern.“ 🇩🇪
Thorsten Benner beschuldigde The Pioneer van selectief citeren en chargeren om de inhoud wat te scherp neer te zetten.
Mitarbeiter von Robert Habeck rechnen mit Annexion Taiwans durch China – Zeit: „Mitarbeiter von Bundeswirtschaftsminister Robert Habeck rechnen einem Medienbericht zufolge mit einer Annexion von Taiwan bis spätestens 2027.“ 🇩🇪
Het vaak genoemde jaar 2027 is geen invasiedeadline, maar betreft samen met 2035 momenten waarop volgens de planning het Chinese Volksbevrijdingsleger over bepaalde capaciteiten moet beschikken. Wat daarmee wanneer gedaan wordt, blijft een politieke beslissing van het moment.
Wirtschaft verärgert über China-Papier aus Habecks Ministerium – Reuters
Grote Duitse bedrijven zijn, voorspelbaar, niet blij. Wel is belangrijk onderscheid te maken tussen grote bedrijven met veel Chinese belangen en een steeds negatiever mkb.
Germany must be more trade independent from China, Habeck’s ministry says in internal strategy paper – Reuters 🇩🇪
Watching China in Europe: December 2022 – GMF’s Noah Barkin: ‘Against this backdrop, some European diplomats are worried about a new wave of Realpolitik washing over Brussels, which can be summed up like this: Russia, not China, is Enemy Number One; the United States is profiting from the war in Ukraine at Europe’s expense; and closer engagement with Beijing makes sense, as a cushion against the forceful economic headwinds unleashed by the conflict and because Europe must do all it can to try to pry Beijing away from Moscow.’ ‘Indeed, we may be approaching a moment where the gap between Germany’s rhetoric on China and its actions risks being stretched beyond the bounds of the credible.’ 🇪🇺🇩🇪
Biden en Macron maken afspraken over Inflation Reduction Act – FD 🇫🇷
Macron: klimaatwet VS dreigt Westen te ‘fragmenteren’ – NRC 🇫🇷
Joint Statement Following the Meeting Between President Biden and President Macron – The White House: ‘They also intend to increase practical coordination in the [Indo-Pacific] region on maritime security.’ ‘The United States and France will continue to coordinate on our concerns regarding China’s challenge to the rules-based international order, […]. The Presidents reaffirm the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.’ 🇫🇷
The EU has a spy problem — here’s why it’s so difficult to catch them – POLITICO Europe: ‘the fight against espionage is receiving renewed attention as the EU’s spy-catchers redouble their efforts in the face of Russian hostility, Chinese spying and the return of Great Power geopolitics.’ 🇪🇺
European Parliament trade committee to visit Taiwan for first time, from December 19-21 – Focus Taiwan 🇪🇺
UK lawmaker delegation emphasises shared values with Taiwan – Tapei Times 🇬🇧
China’s controversial plan to build a new embassy near the Tower of London has been rejected by council – Bloomberg 🇬🇧
Bezoek Charles Michel 🇪🇺🇨🇳
EU roept China op om druk uit te oefenen op Rusland – NRC: „In Brussel baarde de reis vorige week opzien omdat er een vast stramien is voor EU-China beraad.”
EU’s Michel urges Xi to use ‘influence’ on Russia over war with Ukraine – Reuters
European Council chief raises China’s Covid measures in Xi meeting – FT
Seizing on EU tensions with US, Xi tells Europe to keep investing in China – POLITICO Europe
Remarks by President Charles Michel following the meeting with Chinese President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 – Europese Raad
I urged President Xi — as we did at our EU-China Summit in April — to use his influence on Russia to respect the UN charter.
We also discussed Taiwan. The EU is committed to and maintains its One China Policy. I repeated the longstanding position of the EU on Taiwan and the Taiwan strait.
But I also set out the difficulties faced by EU companies and investors. On the European side, market access remains very open, while in China several sectors remain much more closed. We need greater reciprocity, we need a more balanced relationship with no overdependencies, a real level-playing field for our companies. We need to strike the right balance. A shift into ‘self-reliance’ carries dangers not only for China and the EU but also for the world.
President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 holds talks withEuropean Council President Charles Michel – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China
A political settlement of the crisis best serves Europe’s interests and the common interests of all countries in Eurasia. Under the current circumstances, it is important to prevent an escalation or expansion of the crisis, stay committed to promoting talks for peace, manage the spillovers of the crisis, and watch out for any risk of bloc confrontation. China supports the EU in stepping up mediation efforts and playing a leading role in building a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture in Europe.
Bovenstaande woordkeuze over een ‘politieke’ oplossing voor de oorlog in Oekraïne is bij lagere functionarissen vaak te vinden in de context van het veroordelen van ‘escalerende’ Westerse wapenleveranties. Voor de Clingendael Spectator legde ik uit hoe de oproep tot het bouwen van „a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture in Europe” overeenkomsten heeft met de Russische visie voor een nieuwe regionale veiligheidsordening in Europa.
China Direct newsletter: Death of an era — Charles M in China — UK embassy vs. Londoners – POLITICO Europe: ‘Senior EU national diplomats complained that Michel didn’t give them a proper heads-up.’
China covid
China’s vice-premier signals shift in Covid stance as some lockdowns eased – The Guardian: ‘It has only been in recent days that Chinese officials have begun to emphasise the lower severity of the Omicron strain of Covid-19.’
Vice premier Sūn Chūnlán 孙春兰 stresses optimising COVID-19 response – Xinhua: ‘She said the country is facing a new situation and new tasks in epidemic prevention and control as the pathogenicity of the Omicron virus weakens, more people are vaccinated and experience in containing the virus is accumulated.’
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention expert tells press conference dominant omicron strain less of a threat than original Covid – Caixin Global
After two years of fighting Covid tooth-and-nail, and excoriating Western nations that chose to live with the virus at the cost of millions of lives, China’s rhetoric seems to be moving in a more nuanced direction – Bloomberg
Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter – Reuters
China is considering rolling out a fourth round of Covid vaccines, sources say, as pressure on the government mounts to move away from stringent virus restrictions – Bloomberg
China targets seniors in renewed Covid vaccination drive – Caixin Global
Vraag blijft hoe men de door Caixin genoemde percentages wil gaan halen. Daarnaast: de vaccinatiegraad moet je verbeteren vóór versoepelingen, in plaats van tijdens of na.
China had three years to prepare for a Covid surge, but rather than boost capacity and invest in prevention it focused resources on control – WSJ
How nationalism and xenophobia drive China’s ‘Zero Covid’ policy – Lai-Ha Chan and Pak K. Lee for The Diplomat
Chinese farmers let cabbages rot as Covid curbs disrupt sales – Reuters
China protesten 🪧
China police deploy high-tech tools to crush protests – AFP: ‘Beijing police may have used phone location data either captured from on-site scanners or Covid health codes scanned by people taking taxis to areas where protests took place, she said.’
China still clamping down on protest activities against Covid-19 lockdown – The Straits Times: ‘stepping up police patrols in some major cities and interrogating protesters at gatherings held last weekend.’
(Van een krant uit Singapore, waar de politie hetzelfde zou doen bij demonstraties.)
Graffiti, flyers, word of mouth: China’s protesters embrace low-tech organising to escape surveillance – Rest of World
What 1989 can teach us about the recent protests in China – The Economist
Lessons from a Chinese protest in Beijing – The Economist’s Chaguan: ‘An eyewitness’s smartphone video captures the meeting with the police chief’
„Veel Chinezen zijn sceptisch over radicale politieke veranderingen” – NRC interviewt Florian Schneider
Xi Jinping broke the social contract that helped China prosper – Yasheng Huang for The New York Times: ‘Different people harbored different grievances, and their grievances were not synchronized.’ Nu…
China’s protests punch a hole in Xi’s credibility – Deng Yuwen for Foreign Policy
Shift in China’s Covid-19 approach could embolden protesters in future – The Straits Times
In China, online nostalgia for late president Jiang Zemin’s leadership stands out in contrast to protests – SCMP
China protests: Uyghur people have suffered most from draconian zero-COVID policies but are too terrorised to join in – Jo Smith Finley for The Conversation
Harsh lockdowns have united the Chinese, but ethnicity still divides them – The Economist: ‘There were two vigils in Amsterdam on November 28th, one led by Uyghurs, the other by Han Chinese. The two groups started arguing when the Uyghurs raised an East Turkestan flag, a symbol of independence. The Han protesters did not want to be associated with separatism; some criticised the Uyghurs for asserting that they were not Chinese.’ 🇳🇱
Tech War 💽
Chipgigant TSMC belooft Biden en Apple nog snellere chips in techstrijd met China – De Volkskrant
TSMC will offer advanced 4-nanometre chips when its new US$12 billion plant in Arizona opens in 2024, an upgrade from its previous public statements, after US customers such as Apple pushed the company to do so, sources say – Bloomberg
Weekend
Achtergrond
De buitengewone levens van twee vertalers tussen de Qing en het Britse rijk – Maaike de Wijs voor China2025.nl
Podcasts
Chinese burgers zijn de extreem strenge covidregels zat – NRC Vandaag 🍎
Demonstranten in Beijing worden opgespoord door de politie – De Volkskrant Elke Dag 🍎
Control pique: Could protests in China threaten Xi Jinping’s plans for total control? – The Economist’s Drum Tower 🍎
China’s Role in the United Nations – China Global talks to Courtney Fung 🍎
Controlling the future: Inside China’s surveillance state – The Little Red Podcast talks to Josh Chin and Liza Lin 🍎
那些年轻的抗议者:我们为什么要上街 – 不明白播客 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
On TikTok, Chinese state media pushes divisive videos about US politicians – Forbes
Canada issues ‘cease and desist’ warning to China over ‘police stations’ in Ottawa – The Guardian
Xinhua president Fù Huá 傅华 meets with Associated Press counterpart Daisy Veerasingham – Xinhua
Xi’s new Central Military Commission: A war council for Taiwan? – Joel Wuthnow for Jamestown China Brief: ‘Rather than designed to lead a war, the new CMC will be charged with pursuing the PLA’s overall modernization, which includes becoming better prepared for future contingencies.’
China has India trapped on their disputed border – Sushant Singh for Foreign Policy
China binnenland
Jiāng Zémín 江泽民’s remains transferred to Beijing – Xinhua: ‘Cai Qi, some staff members of the office of Comrade Jiang Zemin's Funeral Committee, and Jiang's relatives escorted his remains from Shanghai to Beijing.’
New faces of leaders, new factional dynamics: CCP leadership politics following the 20th Party Congress – Guoguang Wu for Jamestown China Brief: ‘As the former factions seem to have disappeared, new factions under Xi’s supreme umbrella of power are beginning to emerge. At this stage it might be too early to identify them as such, but we can already cite some likely signals.’
Hong Kong
Chinese students and young workers look to Hong Kong for a better future – FT
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
刘结一:坚持贯彻新时代党解决台湾问题的总体方略 – 《求是》2022/23
Liú Jiéyī 刘结一, directeur van het Kantoor voor Taiwanzaken van de Chinese regering, komt met een stuk in het gezaghebbende theoretische tijdschrift van de Partij, Qiushi, over het Taiwanbeleid na het 20e Partijcongres. Er staat niet veel schokkends in. Zoals altijd is er geen ruimte voor het benoemen van hoe de overgrote meerderheid van Taiwanezen het zelf heel anders ziet dan Peking.
2020年大選 辦餐會、招待食宿、補助機票費用:中國金援替國民黨買票 台商判3年2月 – 自由時報
Prosecutors not charging Czech official with sexual assault because of diplomatic immunity – Taipei Times
Japan envoy praises Taiwan as ‘irreplaceable partner’ at 50th anniversary of official ties – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan binnenland en economie
The DPP lost because Taiwanese livelihoods have not improved – Roy Ngerng for The News Lens met veel grafiekjes
TPP’s Ann Kao’s alliance with Terry Gou [Foxconn&KMT/Pan Blue] in Hsinchu a risk for TPP chair Ko Wen-je – Shih Chia-liang in Taipei Times
Japan surpasses China to become No. 1 Taiwan fruit importer, says Council of Agriculture – Focus Taiwan
Display industry outlook remains dim, Taiwan makers say – Taipei Times
Digital act not proceeding due to lack of public consensus, says NCC chairman – Taipei Times