De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 19 januari: economische cijfers, Davos, Taiwan
Het Nationale Bureau voor de Statistiek van China heeft een boel gegevens over het afgelopen jaar vrijgegeven. De officiële economische groei in 2023 was 5,2%. Op dit moment is het traditie dat ik een stuk van Carnegie in herinnering breng waarin hoogleraar financiën in Peking Michael Pettis uitlegt waarom het Chinese BNP een ander ding is dan bij ons. Als je een groeidoel stelt, dan is het groeicijfer de input op basis waarvan je lagere partijkaders stimuleert economische bezigheid te genereren, los van de vraag of daar altijd echte economische waarde tegenover staat.
Op basis van de cijfers die ook al vanwege de gebruikelijke onbetrouwbaarheden met een korreltje zout moeten worden genomen komt vanuit China een heuse campagne om ons te overtuigen van de geweldige economische vooruitzichten. Ondertussen heeft persbureau Reuters een stuk met de kop dat het voor veel Chinezen als een recessie voelt.
Dat er substantiële economische activiteit is in China, ontkent niemand. Dat deze nog toeneemt, is evident. Deze economie was echter altijd al een inefficiënte verdeler van welvaart onder de Chinese bevolking. Zolang de groei enorm was, maakte dit minder uit. Maar nu het aan alle kanten piept en kraakt, is het de vraag of het afdoende is om een welvaartsstagnatie te voorkomen onder substantiële delen van de stedelijke middenklasse die de ruggengraat van het regime vormt. Dan hebben we het nog niet eens gehad over de vooruitzichten van de uitgebuite onderklasse.
De regering in Peking zal hoop putten uit het groeiende technologische meesterschap in China. De elektrische-autoindustrie is daar het grootste voorbeeld van, met BYD als groeimonster. De Duitse groeimotor mag ook wel onder toezicht geplaatst worden als dit zo doorgaat.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
The Netherlands guest of honour country at this year’s Taipei International Book Exhibition – Taipei Times: ‘Participating in the exhibition is to be the first of a series of events held by the Netherlands Office Taipei this year to honor 400 years of relations, office Director Guido Tielman said.’ 🇳🇱
Taipei International Book Exhibition to showcase Dutch authors – Focus Taiwan 🇳🇱
Deontologische klacht tegen Dewinter (Vlaams Belang) na China-contacten niet ontvankelijk verklaard – De Standaard 🇧🇪
Bracing for geopolitical competition: insights from the MERICS China Forecast 2024 – MERICS 🇪🇺🇩🇪
EU envoy Jorge Toledo slams China’s ‘obsession with national security’, questions economic rebound – SCMP: ‘Jorge Toledo said that EU diplomats were not only struggling to meet Chinese officials, […], but also academics and think tank members.’ 🇪🇺
Germany to donate more maritime surveillance drones to Philippine Coast Guard – The Defense Post 🇩🇪
Chinese premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 says China and Ireland should regard each other as key cooperative partners – Xinhua: ‘China will apply unilateral visa-free policy to Ireland’ 🇮🇪
On visit to Ireland, Chinese premier eyes deeper economic ties – Reuters 🇮🇪
Advertiser Content | Closer China-EU partnership: Adding positive energy to a turbulent world – Ambassador Fu Cong for Euractiv 🇪🇺
Euractiv, tegenwoordig eigendom van Mediahuis en onder hoofdredactie René Moerland, heeft al jaren een commerciële overeenkomst met de Chinese vertegenwoordiging in Brussel.
Davos 🇨🇭🏔️
China snubs Zelenskyy in Switzerland – POLITICO Europe: ‘One senior U.S. official said Beijing rejected Kyiv’s request for a meeting at some point during their mutual Swiss visits. Another senior U.S. official said China has refused any gatherings after Russia urged it to cease diplomatic encounters with Ukraine.’ 🇺🇦
Ukraine is seeking to organise a call with Chinese President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 as it plans a leaders summit to push forward its blueprint for peace – Bloomberg 🇺🇦
China looks to boost EU imports, urges bloc to ease hi-tech export controls – SCMP 🇪🇺
France’s Macron calls for de-escalation in China-US tensions, backs ‘de-risking’ strategy – SCMP 🇫🇷
Taiwan is a ‘powerful affirmation of democracy’, Blinken tells Davos – Nikkei Asia
Chinese economische cijfers 🇨🇳📊
Herstel Chinese economie valt tegen, impact coronaperiode blijft voelbaar – de Volkskrant
groeicijfers
China’s economic ‘growth nothing to write home about’: 7 takeaways from fourth-quarter data – SCMP
For many in China, the economy feels like it is in recession – Reuters
Xinhua Headlines: Chinese economy beats growth target with GDP reaching record high – Xinhua: ‘making it the strongest growth engine in the world’
vastgoed
China’s property market slide worsens despite government support – Reuters
beurs
jeugdwerkloosheid
China’s youth-unemployment picture still blurry, social and economic risks remain even as jobless rate returns – SCMP
China’s youth unemployment rate is back, and better – The New York Times
Chinese taal over Taiwan 🇨🇳🇹🇼
Comments of the Spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the Netherlands on the Dutch side congratulating the elections in the Taiwan region – Embassy of the People’s Republic of China to the Kingdom of the Netherlands: ‘The one-China principle is a prevailing consensus among the international community and a basic norm in international relations, which is also the political foundation of establishing and developing diplomatic relations between China and the Netherlands.’ 🇳🇱
Dit is een leugen; het Nederlandse één-Chinabeleid is anders dan het Chinese één-Chinaprincipe.
Verzoek van het lid Paternotte (D66) om een hoorzitting te organiseren over Impact van een blokkade van of militaire actie tegen Taiwan – Jan Paternotte (D66), Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal 🇳🇱
China says threats of force over Taiwan not aimed at most Taiwanese – Reuters: ‘Chen said Taiwanese are “our flesh and blood”, but some have been “poisoned” by ideas of independence and have a “biased understanding” of relations across the strait and national identity.’
Ik verwijs naar mijn blogpost met uitleg over de maoïstische theorie achter de schuld geven aan een ‘extreem kleine minderheid’/‘tiny numbers’ in het geval van de Hongkongse protesten.
Beijing’s top spy agency accuses Taiwan of pushing ‘election interference’ rumours, vows to fight separatism – SCMP
Xi calls for strengthening patriotic united forces as security authority warns secessionists – The Global Times: ‘the Ministry of State Security (MSS) warned in a WeChat article that the Anti-Secession Law is “a sharp sword hanging over the heads of Taiwan secessionists,”’
海峡波涛中的“变”与“不变” – 国家安全部
《反分裂国家法》利剑高悬 – 国家安全部
China’s muted reaction to Taiwan’s election result may signal a waiting game – The Guardian: ‘However, a stronger response may come when Lai is inaugurated in May.’
Taiwan reports first major Chinese military activity after election – Reuters
DPP’s hostile policy risks losing ECFA benefits – Tang Yonghong for China Daily
Tech War 💽💥
China’s BYD 比亚迪 to build electric vehicle plant in Indonesia – FT
Chinese auto chip firms racing to cash in on NEV boom – Caixin Global
China-linked self-driving startup TuSimple 图森未来 to delist from Nasdaq – Nikkei Asia
China widens South America trade highway with Silk Road mega port – Reuters
Foxconn (Hon Hai 鴻海) announces IC packaging and testing joint venture in India – Focus Taiwan
Chipproducent TSMC 台積電 presteert beter dan verwacht, voorziet solide groei eerste kwartaal – FD
TSMC 台積電’s Kumamoto fab to open on February 24, Chairman says – Focus Taiwan
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Hoe China de vergaderzalen van de wereld overneemt – FD
China says willing to mediate between Pakistan and Iran after strikes – AFP
China’s quest for strategic space in the Pacific Islands – Peter Connolly for Mapping China’s Strategic Space
As the US tries to push back against Chinese influence in the Pacific, it’s faced with the painful reality that Beijing seems to have made massive inroads in the region – Bloomberg
Dat komt omdat China het werk doet.
China and India lead Asia race to expand spy satellite networks – Nikkei Asia
World Insights: China and Africa join forces to advance modernisation – Xinhua
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Share of China’s top companies in the private sector continued to steadily decline in 2023 – PIIE
Editorial: China is not alone in having unreliable growth data – FT
How China’s public views Taiwan’s elections: Ordinary Chinese express no eagerness for war, but back threats of force – The Economist’s Chaguan: ‘Mr Xi enjoys more room for manoeuvre as long as lots of ordinary Chinese believe that Taiwan may one day embrace “peaceful reunification”.’
Commentary: Taiwan’s 2024 election results show China isn’t voters’ biggest concern – Chong Ja Ian for CNA
Taiwan People’s Party as the kingmaker: what future holds for the party? – Brian Hioe for Taiwan Insight
Taiwan’s new president: continuity, priorities, vision – Yeh Chieh-Ting for Taiwan Insight: ‘These observations point to the fact that Taiwan’s domestic economic conundrums have less to do with whether wealth is growing in Taiwan and more to do with generational justice. The generation of Taiwanese who built their wealth during the rapid economic growth of Taiwan’s industrialization still has a hard grip on that wealth, including locking the wealth into real estate instead of capital investments. Not only does that cause housing prices to remain high, but the lack of capital investment means the loss of many opportunities for young people.’
Most people in Taiwan see themselves as primarily Taiwanese; few say they’re primarily Chinese – Pew Research: ‘KMT supporters are more likely than DPP supporters (63% vs. 34%) to see the United States as a major threat to Taiwan.’ ‘About half of those who support the governing DPP (48%) are content with how things are going, compared with just 10% of those who support the opposition KMT.’
What is Taiwan’s new president going to do about China? Polling data indicates the public is split over the future of the island and the threat of annexation – Timothy S. Rich for Foreign Policy
Taiwan learned you can’t fight fake news by making it illegal: Taipei has switched strategies in its fight against Chinese disinformation – Nick Aspinwall for Foreign Policy
Podcasts
China is not out of the woods yet: China faces a deepening property sector crisis along with deflationary and demographic pressures – FT News Briefing 🍎 🤖
Members of one Indigenous tribe in Taiwan reflect on their identity – NPR All Things Considered
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Philippines defence minister calls out China official for ‘gutter-level talk’ – Reuters 🇵🇭
China and Philippines seek better communication and management of conflicts in South China Sea – Reuters: ‘eighth meeting of the China-Philippines Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea’ 🇵🇭
Galwan not the last, China tried capturing Indian posts again & clashes ensued, new details reveal – The Print 🇮🇳
India could ease China investment curbs if border stays calm – Reuters 🇮🇳
US Treasury team set for Beijing talks on economic co-operation – FT 🇺🇸
US urges discussions with China on practical nuclear risk reduction steps – Reuters 🇺🇸
Pekings opwaardering van het Chinese nucleaire arsenaal is een ondergewaardeerd risico.
Republican lawmakers criticise lifting of US sanctions to gain China’s help on fentanyl – SCMP 🇺🇸
The surprise success in bridging the US & China is a dialogue on juvenile justice – Dui Hua Human Rights Journal
China state media races to plant presence in Nauru after switch from Taiwan – Reuters: ‘According to state-owned Beijing Daily, the CCTV reporter arrived in Nauru in May 2023 as the Communist Party representative of a Chinese harbour engineering company working on a local project.’ 🇳🇷
Beijing points finger at Japan over sonar attack on Australian warship HMAS Toowoomba – ABC News 🇦🇺
China and Iran sign policing pledge during Iranian police chief’s Beijing visit – SCMP 🇮🇷
China economie
China’s ageing population threatens switch to new economic growth model – Reuters
China population decline accelerates as birthrate hits record low – The Guardian
Foreign visitor numbers yet to reach China’s pre-pandemic levels, data shows – SCMP
Explainer: China emits fresh signals on building a financial powerhouse – Xinhua
China binnenland
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
US lawmakers set for Taipei visits in show of support for Taiwan – FT: ‘Mike Gallagher, the influential Republican hawk who chairs the bipartisan House China committee, is expected to travel to Taiwan after the first delegation’
Taiwan’s remaining Pacific allies pledge support – Reuters
Official to meet with new Marshall Islands president – Taipei Times
Research center set up to combat cognitive warfare – Taipei Times
Taiwan opts out of hosting Asian Men’s U20 volleyball tourney due to China’s objection on political grounds, says Iran – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan politiek
KMT’s Han Kuo-yu 韓國瑜 announces run for speaker, is open to TPP deputy – Focus Taiwan: ‘By running a joint speakership ticket, the KMT and TPP could “unite the opposition” and “give the DPP a taste of the fury of 60 percent of the public,” Han said, adding that this would teach them “humility” and force them to change.’
Lai Ching-te 賴清德 announces exit from DPP’s New Tide faction – Taipei Times
Taiwan to keep cabinet in place after customary post-election resignation – Reuters
Jaw Shaw-kong 趙少康 pins KMT loss on Hou’s lack of flexibility – Taipei Times
Het gebrek aan zelfreflectie in het orthodoxe kamp waartoe Jaw behoort, nadat juist zij het lokalistische voordeel van de meer Taiwanese Hou Yu-ih hadden gehandicapt, is goed nieuws voor de DPP en TPP.
TPP chair Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 rejects claims of large-scale voting fraud – Taipei Times: ‘some of his supporters have suggested that voter fraud was to blame for the discrepancy between the party’s polling and the official results.’
‘Little Grass Card’ claim a smear tactic, TPP says – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Taiwan’s presidential choice suggests economic policies to continue, good for tech stocks, analysts say – The Straits Times
14 indicted for Terry Gou 郭台銘 presidential campaign signature buying – Focus Taiwan