De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 18 oktober: CRINK?, Handel, Taiwan
POLITICO Europe komt met een stuk waarin ze weer de aandacht richten op de ludieke afkorting ‘CRINK’: China, Rusland, Iran en Noord-Korea. Dit zijn vier landen die steeds vaker samen lijken te spannen – vooral in Oekraïne. Maar ook daarbuiten ziet men steeds meer samenwerking. Dat gaat verder dan wat gezamenlijke marinepatrouilles.
Tegelijkertijd is niet iedereen het eens of een gedeeld belang in het verstoren van de Amerikaans-westerse wereldorde betekent dat men hetzelfde doel voor ogen heeft. Er komen steeds meer verontrustende berichten over losgeslagen Russische verstoringsactiviteiten. Dit contrasteert nogal met de controleerbaarheid die Peking graag wil.
Commentatoren zoals David Rennie van The Economist opperen echter dat Moskou ook kan dienen als breekijzer voor Xi Jinpings China. Laat Poetin maar de beuk erin gooien in bijvoorbeeld de VN, dan kan Peking als redelijke partij aan de zijkant daarvan profiteren, zo zou de insteek zijn.
Het lijkt mij wel de zaak dat Europa zich meer bewust wordt van het feit, dat de geopolitieke conflicten in Oost-Azië en Europa met elkaar verbonden raken. Noord-Koreaanse munitie, Iraanse drones en Chinese materialen zijn al essentieel om te zorgen dat Rusland de oorlog überhaupt voort kan zetten.
Nu zouden er ook nog eens Noord-Koreaanse soldaten al vechten voor Rusland in Oekraïne. Daarnaast spreken Taiwanese veiligheidsfunctionarissen over Russische marineschepen die rondom de recente Chinese dreigoefeningen in de Straat Miyako tussen Japan en Taiwan aanwezigheid zouden zijn geweest – daarmee een potentiële bondgenoot afsnijdend.
De vierde Chinese militaire oefening rondom Taiwan in drie jaar is niet alleen een politiek signaal. Het is ook onderdeel van wat ik eerder al de ‘escalerende normalisering’ noemde. Bill Bishop wees er in zijn recente podcast terecht op dat, onder al het lawaai, dit natuurlijk een militaire oefening is voor invasie of blokkade. Daarin worden de Chinese strijdkrachten elke oefening een stukje beter.
Vandaag in de nieuwsbrief dus verslagen van een briefing in Taipei, waar Taiwanese veiligheidsfunctionarissen wezen op de manier waarop China zijn vaardigheden verbetert om van oefening ineens in conflict om te schakelen. We moeten maar eens na gaan denken wat er kan gebeuren in een hypothetisch scenario waarin er twee fronten komen.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
‘Met de kennisgroep China van de commissie @BuZaTweedekamer zijn we momenteel in Londen voor gesprekken met Britse parlementariërs, ambtenaren van oa. Defensie en BuZa en denktanks om kennis uit te wisselen over de omgang met China op zowel economisch vlak als op veiligheid.’ – Derk Boswijk (CDA), Twitter 🇳🇱🇬🇧
Geesteswetenschappen op de schop: African Studies verdwijnt, talen- en Azië-studies fuseren – Leids Universitair Weekblad Mare: „Zo moeten Chinastudies, Japanstudies, Koreastudies en South and Southeast Asian Studies samensmelten tot Aziëstudies.”
„De researchmasters Asian Studies en Middle Eastern Studies worden samengevoegd tot Area Studies.” 🇳🇱
Na 170 jaar komt er een einde aan de studie sinologie in Nederland.
Air France-KLM is lobbying the French government to cap the number of flights that mainland Chinese carriers can make to Europe – Bloomberg: ‘Deutsche Lufthansa AG meanwhile is pushing for Germany’s government to take the lead in challenging Beijing’ 🇫🇷🇳🇱🇩🇪
Ex-President Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) meets French senators – Focus Taiwan: ‘The tour made Tsai the first former Taiwanese president to visit the French upper house since direct presidential elections were held in Taiwan in 1996.’ 🇫🇷
China welcomes Austrian firms to invest despite EU tariffs plan – Reuters: ‘Chinese vice commerce minister Ling Ji said in a meeting with Austria's labour and economy minister, Martin Kocher.’ 🇦🇹
UK’s Labour backtracks on push for genocide ruling on China’s treatment of Uyghurs – The Guardian: ‘As part of this diplomatic rapprochement’ 🇬🇧
Montenegro and China strengthen cooperation at BRI conference – Xinhua 🇲🇪
Rusland 🇷🇺
China ready to strengthen co-operation with Russia and Mongolia – Reuters: ‘China's Premier Li Qiang proposed closer three-way ties with Russia and Mongolia at a meeting on Wednesday with counterparts from his neighbours held on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit’ 🇷🇺🇲🇳
US sanctions 2 Chinese companies over drones used by Russia against Ukraine – SCMP 🇺🇸🇷🇺
China Coast Guard fleet completes joint drills with Russian counterpart – Xinhua: ‘During the drills, vessels from both sides formed a joint fleet to patrol the high seas of North Pacific Ocean for the first time’ 🇷🇺
Handel 🚗🇪🇺
Update: China mulls increasing tariffs on imported fuel cars with large-displacement engines – Xinhua: ‘A decision will be made prudently after comprehensive consideration of various factors, MOC spokesperson, He Yadong, told a press conference.’ 🇪🇺
商务部召开例行新闻发布会（2024年10月17日） – 中华人民共和国商务部：“关于你提到的提高进口大排量燃油车关税的问题，中方正在研究提高进口大排量燃油车关税等措施，将综合考虑各方因素后慎重作出决定。”
China’s Zeekr 极氪 launches EV in Australia, eyes New Zealand next – Reuters 🇦🇺🇳🇿
China is leading an ‘age of electricity’, IEA says – Nikkei Asia: ‘Electricity is quickly replacing fossil fuels, the Paris-based intergovernmental body said in its annual World Energy Outlook’
China’s steel export surge prompts concerns it could add to trade tensions – SCMP
China’s wind-turbine makers vow ‘self-discipline’ in pledge to end price war – SCMP: ‘following a similar announcement by the country’s solar-panel industry a few days earlier.’
Neue Konkurrenz: Kapert China jetzt das Offshore-Windgeschäft? – FAZ
Tech War 💽💥
Blunder met cijfers niet enige tegenvaller voor chipmachinefabrikant ASML – NRC 🇳🇱
TSMC 台積電 logs record profit amid AI boom and iPhone chip demand – Nikkei Asia
Construction of TSMC 台積電’s 2nd fab in Kumamoto to start in Q1 2025 – Focus Taiwan
EU taps Taiwan for 6G development as competition with China grows – DigiTimes Asia: ‘To ensure Europe collaborates with top global partners, the EU is seeking to partner with Taiwan to build open, secure 6G global standards.’ 🇪🇺
Chinese cyber association calls for review of Intel products sold in China – Reuters: ‘alleging the U.S. chipmaker has “constantly harmed” the country’s national security and interests.’ 🇺🇸
The US government is attempting to secure global supplies of cobalt – WSJ: ‘The Biden administration has held talks with three firms in recent weeks about purchasing one of the world’s largest non-Chinese cobalt producers’ ‘Chemaf, a mining company based in the Democratic Republic of Congo’ 🇺🇸🇨🇩
US$1bn US battery plant plan shows race to reduce reliance on China – FT: ‘the world’s first large-scale factory to produce lithium sulphur batteries’ 🇺🇸
In Depth: Chinese AI-app makers look overseas for their big break – Caixin Global: ‘Instead of following the well-worn TikTok and Temu playbook of dominating the domestic market before venturing overseas’ ‘capitalize on mature markets where subscription-based Software as a Service (SaaS) models are well-established and where there is a readiness to pay for AI-driven services.’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
CRINK: It’s the new ‘Axis of Evil’ – POLITICO Europe: ‘China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — four dictatorships that are colluding on Moscow’s bloody campaign to subdue Ukraine.’ 🇨🇳🇷🇺🇮🇷🇰🇵
Noord-Koreaanse militairen gesneuveld in Oekraïne? Rusland leunt steeds meer op Pyongyang – NRC 🇰🇵🇷🇺
Vladimir Putin’s spies are plotting global chaos: Russia is enacting a revolutionary plan of sabotage, arson and assassination – The Economist 🇷🇺
Suspected sabotage almost caused German plane crash, says spy chief – FT: ‘as he warned of a dramatic increase in “aggressive behaviour” by Russian agents.’ 🇷🇺
Grootmacht India laat zich niets meer vertellen. Maar moordt het ook op andermans grondgebied? – NRC 🇮🇳
Most Singaporeans rate China’s clout above US and prefer it as strategic partner, according to Verian survey – SCMP: ‘On selecting a strategic partner for security and survival, half of the Singapore-based respondents chose China, followed by 15 per cent for Malaysia and the US.’ 🇸🇬
Most Philippine voters won’t support pro-China candidates in 2025 elections, survey says – SCMP 🇵🇭
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
China’s economic ills are serious but not incurable – Martin Wolf for FT: ‘Because Chinese policymakers have refused to recognise the nature of the disease, they do not cure it. Over time, they have made it worse, by resorting to temporary palliatives.’
EU Tariffs: How China Should Respond (Part 2) –
: ‘This contribution from Jian Junbo in the Chinese debate on Europe illustrates the mismatch in the European and Chinese perceptions of economic competition and the transformation of China-Europe trade relations.’Chinesisch-russische Militärmanöver: Peking zieht seine Lehren – t-online: „Laut Daten des US-Thinktanks Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) haben die gemeinsamen Militärübungen in den vergangenen Jahren deutlich zugenommen.“
„Laut der US-Denkfabrik Institute for the Study of War (ISW) geht es dabei beispielsweise um die russischen Erfahrungen mit Drohnenangriffen auf See- und Hafeninfrastruktur.“ 🇷🇺
The politics of China’s land appropriation in Bhutan – Robert Barnett for The Diplomat: ‘Eight years ago, China began building villages within territory that has for decades if not centuries been within Bhutan.’ 🇧🇹
What’s in a name? A rough guide to China’s elaborate labeling of bilateral relations in Europe – MERICS 🇪🇺
Chinese positive messaging frames successful colonisation in Xinjiang – Niva Yau for Jamestown Perspectives: ‘The PRC’s positive messaging about Xinjiang has been successful in Central Asia’
How modern slavery—in China and elsewhere—undermines the fight against existential threats – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: ‘a new report reveals that some Chinese pharmaceutical products made using forced labor in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region have reached the global marketplace’
The Panda Factories – The New York Times: ‘Today, China has removed more pandas from the wild than it has freed, The Times found.’
‘The number of wild pandas remains a mystery because the Chinese government’s count is widely seen as flawed and politicized.’
Podcasts
Mark Leonard: The Idea of China – CSIS Pekingology 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Renewal of US-China science pact said to be close, but may hold until after Election Day – SCMP 🇺🇸
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 sends congratulations to Gala Dinner of National Committee on US-China Relations – Xinhua: ‘adding that China is willing to work with the United States as partners and friends’ 🇺🇸
China’s panda pair hits the road to United States – Xinhua 🇺🇸
South China Sea needs ‘pragmatic cooperation’, Beijing and Kuala Lumpur agree – SCMP: ‘their first bilateral dialogue on the management of maritime issues in the South China Sea.’ 🇲🇾
Asean Centrality di mana?
China and Vietnam’s ‘friendly’ vow on South China Sea tensions shows mutual trust, official Chinese analysts say – SCMP 🇻🇳
Wordt voorgehouden als voorbeeld voor de rest, d.w.z. de Filipijnen.
China and Thailand begin latest joint military drills as Beijing boosts defence ties – SCMP: ‘with drills that feature manned-unmanned combat devices such as drones.’ 🇹🇭
Myanmar conflict lines blurred by US-China rivalry – Nikkei Asia 🇲🇲
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 calls for steady, sustained progress in promoting China-Mongolia comprehensive strategic partnership – Xinhua: ‘Xi made the remarks in his congratulatory message to Khurelsukh on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of China-Mongolia diplomatic ties.’ 🇲🇳
China urges India to handle Taiwan issue cautiously after Mumbai office opening – Reuters: ‘The Taiwanese government opened its third representative office in India on Wednesday, […], adding to existing offices in New Delhi and Chennai.’ 🇮🇳🇹🇼
China invites Colombia to join Belt and Road Initiative, ‘exploring’ free-trade agreement – SCMP 🇨🇴
SCO member states oppose protectionism and unilateral sanctions – Xinhua: ‘the heads of the delegations said unilateral sanctions violate international law, harm the interests of other countries, and disrupt international economic relations.’
Chinese migrant crossings through Darien Gap plunge after crackdown – Nikkei Asia
US sends second flight of migrants back to China for repatriation – SCMP 🇺🇸
China launches more satellites for Starlink rival G60 as it races to meet target – SCMP
Japan PM Ishiba Shigeru 石破 茂 sends offering to war-linked Yasukuni shrine – Kyodo News: ‘sent a “masakaki” offering to the Shinto shrine, seen as a symbol of Japan’s wartime militarism by China and South Korea, following the custom set by his recent predecessors.’ 🇯🇵
China economie
China’s CN¥4 trillion [€517bn] loan push for unfinished homes disappoints – Bloomberg : ‘The plans underwhelmed, with some analysts calling them “incremental.”’
Economist urges China to push further to elevate private sector as draft law disappoints – SCMP
LVMH shares plunged after sales of fashion and leather goods fell for the first time since the pandemic – Bloomberg 🇪🇺
China woes drag down Pernod Ricard first quarter sales – Reuters 🇪🇺
China binnenland
Why did China’s police chief Wáng Xiǎohóng 王小洪 make a rare foray into economic policy? – SCMP: ‘a call for better risk management and stability.’ ‘in his capacity as a senior member of the Communist Party and state councillor, rather than as public security minister’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 urges Fujian to play pioneering role in China’s modernisation drive – Xinhua: ‘Xi learned about local efforts in strengthening the protection of cultural heritage and promoting cultural exchanges across the Taiwan Strait.’
China’s countryside to have brighter prospect, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 says – Xinhua: ‘Xi made the remarks Tuesday afternoon while inspecting Aojiao Village of Dongshan County in Zhangzhou City, east China’s Fujian Province.’
China looks to tackle problems for debt-ridden local authorities with water tax reforms – SCMP: ‘The move, though, is believed to be largely symbolic as the new increase for local authorities are estimated to be only billions of yuan’
Chinese airline finances take a hit as local governments fail to pay subsidies – Yicai Global
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s stronger grip on legislature shows lack of checks on power – Bloomberg: ‘Nearly 70% of laws made this year feature language explicitly affirming the party’s authority, exploding from 4% in 2018’
15 jailed in China over Changsha building collapse that killed dozens – AFP
Hong Kong
UK’s Keir Starmer urges Hong Kong to release Jimmy Lai 黎智英 ahead of foreign secretary Beijing trip – HKFP 🇬🇧
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China building capacity to rapidly strike Taiwan, senior Taiwanese official says – Reuters: ‘“They are increasing the building up of their capacity to turn military exercises into a conflict,” the official said at a briefing in Taipei, requesting anonymity to be able to speak more frankly.’ 🇨🇳
China tested missiles on inland targets during its latest military drills around Taiwan, according to a Taiwanese national security official – Bloomberg: ‘Chinese armed forces have been refining their strategies with each drill, the official said, adding they were getting more precise and simulating actual combat conditions.’
‘Two Russian military vessels sailed through the Miyako Strait near southern Japan, the Taiwan national security official said, adding that the move may have been intended to deter Tokyo from getting involved in any conflict.’ 🇨🇳🇷🇺
China’s show of force in massive military exercises alarms Taiwan – FT: ‘It was a “misconception” to view Monday’s drills as limited because they lasted only one day or to think that they did not involve live-fire components, the senior official said.’ 🇨🇳
Chinese President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 visits Taiwan-facing island after PLA drills simulate blockade – SCMP: ‘Xi inspected Dongshan county in the southeastern province of Fujian on Tuesday afternoon, state broadcaster CCTV reported.’
‘Dongshan became a major cross-strait battlefield in 1953, when the KMT unsuccessfully tried to retake the PLA-controlled island — in what was the last attempt by the Taiwanese [sic] army to attack the mainland.
President Xi on Tuesday visited a memorial hall dedicated to a Dongshan party secretary who played a significant role in that battle, state news agency Xinhua reported.’ 🇨🇳
China won’t renounce use of force over Taiwan; Xi visits frontline island – Reuters 🇨🇳
Latest PLA drill short and small in scale, Taiwan intelligence chief Tsai Ming-yen 蔡明彥 says – Focus Taiwan: ‘Tsai told lawmakers that the PLA also engaged in large-scale cognitive warfare by spreading false information online during Monday's drills.’ 🇨🇳
Presidential Address on National Day highlights ‘Four Unchanged Commitments’ and urges Mainland China to take up international responsibilities with Taiwan to safeguard regional and global peace – Mainland Affairs Council of the Republic of China (Taiwan) 🇨🇳
In mijn nieuwsbrief van vorige week vrijdag schreef ik dat Lai Ching-te in zijn toespraak van 10 oktober de Four Commitments van Tsai Ing-wen uit 2021–3 maar gedeeltelijk herhaalde. Nu zegt de MAC dat Lai in zijn toespraak kwam met ‘Four Unchanged Commitments’, die anders zijn dan de vier van Tsai:
1. the government’s determination to defend national sovereignty remains unchanged;
2. efforts to maintain the status quo of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait remain unchanged;
3. commitment to hopes for parity and dignity, healthy and orderly dialogue and exchanges between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait remains unchanged; and
4. determination to protect our democratic and free way of life remains unchanged.
De twee andere opvallende uitspraken staan los daarvan: ‘The president reaffirmed that neither the Republic of China or the People’s Republic of China is subordinate to the other, and he firmly stated that the People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan.’
Tsai’s ‘Four Commitments’ bestonden naast de door Lai genoemde niet-onderhorig en tegen-invasie ook uit democratisch-staatsbestel en toekomst-beslist-door-wil-van-Taiwanees-volk.
MAC urges China to be ‘pragmatic’ after rejecting new cross-Strait framework idea – Focus Taiwan: ‘invited China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) — China's counterpart to Taiwan’s SEF — to come to the “Nangan 26 Stronghold” for discussions of a “Two Six Consensus”’ ‘Luo suggested that the “Two Six Consensus” would be more forward-looking than the “1992 consensus,”’
‘Also on Wednesday, Luo explained that no record of the “1992 consensus” could be found in SEF’s archives or correspondence between the SEF and the ARATS.
While there were talks in 1992 between the two sides, the so-called “consensus” did not exist, he said.’
Taiwan’s Straits Exchange Foundation to donate two Formosan sika deer to China’s Fuzhou Zoo as peace offering – Taipei Times: ‘The deer are named He He (和和) and Ping Ping (平平), a play on the word for “peace” (heping, 和平)’ 🇨🇳
South Africa orders speedy relocation of Taiwan office – Focus Taiwan: ‘In it ultimatum on Oct. 7, the South African government said the Taiwan office must move out of Pretoria before the end of October, or it would be forced to close’ 🇿🇦
Representative office opens in Mumbai, India – Taipei Times 🇮🇳
DPP Secretary-General Lin Yu-chang 林右昌 aims to strengthen Taiwan-Japan ties through upcoming visit – RTI 🇯🇵
US and Taiwan to upgrade combat data network to Link 16 in face of China threat – Nikkei Asia
Smaller fishing vessels to install ID system to prevent incursions – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Taiwanese legislature still unable to break government budget impasse – Focus Taiwan
Taipei councillors urge Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) to tell all amid probe – Taipei Times: ‘Yesterday was the fifth time that Ko had been questioned since the probe began in the final week of August and the seventh for Pong.’
Economic affairs minister J.W. Kuo 郭智輝 (ind.) apologises for power plant remarks – Taipei Times: ‘remarks he made on Tuesday that Taiwan is considering setting up renewable power plants in neighboring nations and transporting the electricity back to Taiwan via ships or submarine cables to meet the green power needs of Taiwanese manufacturers.’