De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 17 november: Biden-Xi top APEC, verkiezingen Taiwan, AM aangeklaagd
Er is groot nieuws uit de Taiwanese verkiezingen. Omdat er al genoeg wordt gezegd over de APEC-top tussen Biden en Xi, laat ik het bij mijn eerdere opmerkingen en aan de vele schrijvers die zich nu over dat onderwerp roeren. In plaats daarvan mijn gedachten over de aangekondigde samenwerking tussen KMT-presidentskandidaat Hou Yu-ih en TPP-kandidaat Ko Wen-je.
De samenwerking is een risicovolle gok van de oppositie. KMT-kandidaat Hou Yu-ih en de zegen van oud-president Ma Ying-jeou zouden hun (oudere) Blauwe Kamp-achterban meebrengen. Populist Ko Wen-je brengt dan de Taiwanees geörienteerde jongere kiezers die niks met de KMT hebben maar wat anders willen dan de DPP.
In het gunstigste scenario voor de oppositie krijgt hiermee de meerderheid van Taiwanezen die een machtswisseling wil een duidelijk focuspunt en verliest de tot nu toe wat zoutloze DPP-kandidaat Lai Ching-te. In het ongunstigste scenario heeft de oppositie echter, door van de race een tweestrijd te maken, de verkiezingen weer omgetoverd in een simpele keuze tussen pro-Taiwan en pro-China. De kans is groot dat ze in dat geval zullen verliezen.
De vaak populistische en opportunistische voormalig arts Ko Wen-je begon zijn politieke carrière meeliftend op de publieke woede tegen toenmalig president Ma Ying-jeou en zijn economische integratie met China, de Zonnebloembeweging van 2014. Ma was zo impopulair, dat de KMT bij zijn vertrek in 2016 voor het eerst zowel presidentieel paleis als parlement aan de DPP verloor. Toch is Ma met een groepje andere Chinese nationalistische Vastelanders nog altijd de spelverdeler binnen de (mijns inziens juist dáárdoor onverkiesbare) KMT.
De KMT-kandidaat is burgemeester van New Taipei Hou Yu-ih. Hij is van Taiwanese i.p.v. Vastelandse komaf en werd gezien als gematigd. Juist dat maakte hem verdacht in de ogen van de kliek rond Ma. Hij valt tegen als kandidaat. Velen binnen de KMT lonkten al tijden naar de onafhankelijke kandidaat en Foxconn-oprichter Terry Gou maar ook Ko Wen-je. Toen Ma zich uitsprak voor de samenwerkingsoplossing van Ko, was het gedaan voor de tegenwerking uit het kamp van Hou.
Druk uit China speelt natuurlijk ook een rol. We kunnen eindeloos speculeren over wat Terry Gou beweegt, maar Ko Wen-je trof laatst ook met de KMT-parlementariërs die het meest een zweem van banden met het Verenigd Front van de CCP om zich heen hebben. De DPP wijst erop dat de baas van de coördinerende Ma Ying-jeou Foundation kortgeleden nog in Peking was. De KMT zelf praat structureel met de CCP. Ko en zijn TPP hebben ook interactie gehad met China, in tegenstelling tot de geblokkeerde DPP.
Tegelijkertijd is dit ook een manier voor ROC/KMT-loyalist Ma Ying-jeou om de TPP als grootste bedreiging voor zijn partij kalt zu stellen. De peilingen lijken nu goed voor Hou. Nathan Batto legt overtuigend uit hoe de arrogante Ko zich vast heeft gezet door zijn assistenten buiten de kamer te laten terwijl hij zijn handtekening zette onder een ongunstige overeenkomst. Legt Ko zicht er morgen bij neer als de uitslag tegenvalt?
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
China wil wel groen worden, maar niet zo snel als Hoekstra wil – Trouw 🇪🇺
‘At the start of my two-day visit to China 🇨🇳 I met with stakeholders, climate scientists, civil society and the ambassadors of EU member states.’ – Wopke Hoekstra, Twitter 🇪🇺
China urges EU to correct wrong practice in anti-subsidy probe on Chinese electric vehicles – Xinhua 🇪🇺
Toespraken Von der Leyen 🇪🇺🇨🇳
EU leader Ursula von der Leyen urges states to begin economic de-risking from China or face trouble – SCMP: ‘In an address to conservative lawmakers at the German Bundestag – the national parliament – she tried to drum up support for her de-risking agenda’
China’s EV overcapacity will get worse, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warns – POLITICO Europe
Speech by President von der Leyen at the European China Conference 2023 organised by the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Mercator Institute for China Studies – European Commission: ‘while we do not want to decouple from China, we do need to de-risk parts of our relationship. And we are building our de-risking strategy upon three pillars. First, defence of our legitimate economic interests. Second, dialogue to address our differences. And third, diversification with our partners.’
‘China pursues a global order that is sino-centric and hierarchical. It pushes an agenda that downplays universal rules, while championing the primacy of national interests. And this is opposed to our own interests and values.’
APEC 🌁🗻
Biden zegt dat er ‘echte vooruitgang’ is geboekt in vier uur durend gesprek met Xi – NRC
Biden krijgt zijn zin na ontmoeting met Xi, al is verbroedering ver weg – de Volkskrant
Xi-Biden talks clear ‘low bar for success’ but bigger hurdles loom for US-China relations – SCMP
‘He’s a dictator’: Biden claims progress in Xi meeting, but deep fault lines remain – POLITICO
Militaire communicatie en toch weer nieuwe panda’s: dit heeft het gesprek van Biden en Xi opgeleverd – NRC
Takeaways Biden and Xi meeting: Taiwan, Iran, fentanyl, and AI – Reuters: ‘Biden said he “stressed the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” He also asked Xi to respect Taiwan’s electoral process, the U.S. official said. Xi responded: “Look, peace is … all well and good but at some point we need to move towards resolution more generally,” the U.S. official said.’
Biden removes sanctions from Chinese institute in push for fentanyl help – Reuters
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin to meet with Chinese counterpart ‘when that person is named’ – SCMP
Biden, Xi agree to reopen military communication channels – Kyodo News: ‘Xi told Biden that the United States should take concrete action to honor its commitment not to back Taiwan’s independence, stop arming the island and support China’s “peaceful reunification,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. Xi was quoted as saying “China will realize reunification, and this is unstoppable.”’
Taiwan ‘most dangerous’ issue in China-US relations, Xi tells Biden in meeting – SCMP
For Biden, a subtle shift in the power balance With China’s Xi Jinping – The New York Times: ‘For the first time in years, a Chinese leader desperately needed a few things from the United States.’
China, wary of isolation, asks Asia-Pacific countries to avoid ‘cliques’ – SCMP
Chinese media send unified message highlighting leader’s ‘warm welcome’ in US in Xi-Biden summit coverage – SCMP
Xinhua Commentary: For China and US, one’s success is an opportunity for the other – Xinhua
President Xi Jinping tells business leaders in San Francisco that China ‘is ready to be a partner and friend of the United States’ – Bloomberg
US business elite welcomes Xi Jinping with standing ovation – FT
VS en China sluiten akkoord over klimaatbeleid, wantrouwen tussen de landen is deels weg – NRC „Opmerkelijk is dat China voor het eerst erkent dat klimaatbeleid niet alleen gaat over reductie van de uitstoot van kooldioxide, maar ook over andere broeikasgassen.”
US and China’s joint climate plan leaves key questions unanswered – The Guardian
San Francisco mocked in China for moving homeless away from Apec summit venue – SCMP
Taiwan verkiezingen 🇹🇼🗳️
KMT and TPP to form joint presidential ticket based upon polling results – Focus Taiwan: ‘It said former President Ma, the KMT, and the TPP would each recommend a polling expert, and the three experts will then assess poll results released publicly from Nov. 7 to Nov. 17 and the results of internal KMT and TPP polls to determine the ticket. The results will be announced by the Ma Ying-jeou Foundation on Nov. 18, the statement said.’
TPP and KMT agree to a joint presidential ticket, results to be announced on Saturday – New Bloom: ‘[Terry] Gou stated whether he decided to run or not would be decided after consulting with Ko [Wen-je].’
‘Ko has a noted history of unpredictably breaking from prospective political allies’
💡 Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) gets rolled – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic: ‘He likes to think he’s the smartest person in the room, but he bumbled into some stupid decisions.’ ‘it appears that Hou is now the overwhelming favorite to win the contest.’
柯文哲落淚向支持者喊話:只要你們不放棄 我就不放棄 – 自由時報
藍白協商民眾黨退讓 柯文哲:心情不好但更痛恨民進黨 – 中央社
Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 aims to unleash KMT Borg – Courtney Donovan Smith
Taiwan News poll of polls, November 15 – Courtney Donovan Smith
Taiwan’s opposition to unite on presidential ticket challenging frontrunner – Reuters: ‘the DPP accused Ma, who last week came out in support of using opinion polls, which the KMT had previously opposed, of taking his instructions from China, given the head of Ma’s foundation, Hsiao Hsu-tsen, had visited Beijing this month.’
Ko-Hou ticket worst scenario for DPP in presidential election, says party source – Focus Taiwan: ‘The key to winning the Jan. 13, 2024 election lies in securing the support of young voters, who largely favor Ko’ ‘if Hou tops the joint ticket, the impact on the DPP would not be as significant’
Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) touts party’s oversight role under TPP-KMT joint ticket deal – Focus Taiwan: ‘During the interview, Ko also claimed that after signing the agreement with the KMT on Wednesday, his party received a call from the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT, the de facto U.S. embassy), asking whether Beijing had been involved.’
NPP co-founder and former lawmaker Huang Kuo-chang 黃國昌 to join TPP – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan presidential frontrunner Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) taps high profile US envoy Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴 as running mate-sources – Reuters
Corrigeren voor het gemis van de persoonlijke populariteit van Tsai Ing-wen, die altijd groter was dan die van haar DPP?
Children’s rights activist tops DPP legislator-at-large list – Focus Taiwan: ‘Puma Shen […] listed second.’ ‘an expert on disinformation campaigns’
[China] slams Lai Ching-te 赖清德 (DPP)’s war-related comments – Xinhua: ‘people who pursue “Taiwan independence” are essentially instigators of war, and it is rascally to tell a lie like this.’ ‘in response to Lai’s recent statement asserting that if he is elected as Taiwan’s [president], the chances of a war across the Taiwan Strait are minimal.’
Tech War 💽💥
Japan and China to create framework for export control talks; fear of tit-for-tat escalation – The Yomiuri Shimbun: ‘The first meeting is being arranged for the first half of next year.’
China’s Transsion 传音, world’s No. 5 smartphone maker, keeps ascending – Nikkei Asia: ‘Not only did it secure a 40% share of the African smartphone market in 2022, it was also the leader in Pakistan and Bangladesh.’
China is taking its rivalry with Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites to a new level – Bloomberg
Taiwan Cement firm E-One Moli Energy to build battery factory in Canada – Taipei Times
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Joe Biden halts plan for Indo-Pacific trade deal IPEF after opposition from Democrats – FT
China’s national security push aims to put auditors in cross hairs when sensitive data is involved – SCMP
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Allard Wagemaker, de hoogste militaire EU-adviseur in China: „Poetin loopt aan de hand van Xi” – Trouw
China may stay permanently behind the US in generative AI – Kevin Xu for
Fleets of Force: How China strong-armed its way into dominating the South China Sea – The New York Times
Issues of centralisation, from financial work to personnel – Willy Wo-Lap Lam for Jamestown China Brief: ‘The underwhelming outcome of the Central Financial Work Conference suggests that the leadership is waiting to see how its current batch of policies play out over the coming months. But it also suggests that the leadership is low on ideas, or at least on the willingness and capacity to implement them’
The cross-Strait intelligence contest continues without quarter – Peter Mattis and Zoë Moore for Jamestown China Brief
Podcasts
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Asean defence chiefs meet as Philippines-China spat fuels tension – Nikkei Asia: ‘China will send Jing Jianfeng, deputy chief of the Chinese Central Military Commission’s Joint Staff Department’
Philippines rejects China’s call for prior notice on resupply missions – Reuters
China’s defence ministry urges Japan not to destabilise South China Sea – Xinhua: ‘attempting to subvert the post-WWII international order.’
Cambodia opens Chinese-funded airport to serve Angkor temple tourists – AFP
Dit vervangt een door een Frans bedrijf gerunde luchthaven die nog niet oud was.
China economie
No end in sight to China’s property crisis as new home prices post sharpest decline since February 2015 – SCMP
China’s economic activity was mixed in October as consumer spending and industrial output picked up, while investment growth slowed on an ongoing property crisis – Bloomberg
Cyber attack on ICBC shines light on role of China’s largest lender in US Treasury market – FT
The US-China currency wars are in an unstable lull – Alan Beattie for FT
China binnenland
Xi Jinping launching military purge, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council report says – Taipei Times
China’s top women’s affairs official Shèn Yíqín 谌贻琴 vows to promote marriage and family to harness ‘the power of half the sky’ – SCMP
China population: marriages set to end 9-year run of declines in 2023, but demographic issues remain – SCMP
Month-old Mao Zedong statue disappears from Changsha; removal possibly directed by authorities – The Yomiuri Shimbun
Local hospital officials get prison time for selling birth certificates – Caixin Global
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Foreign ministry ‘still verifying’ reports Wa State sent Taiwanese fraud suspects to China – Focus Taiwan
China tourist cap may change, minister says – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland
Taiwan to crack down on fishing boats with ‘illegal’ BeiDou satnav systems – SCMP