De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 16 mei: handelsoorlogsrust, Duitsland
Na de overeenkomst tussen China en de Verenigde Staten in Genève afgelopen weekend is de handelsoorlog eventjes in rustiger vaarwater terechtgekomen. Dat geeft tijd om te kijken hoe de zaken ervoor staan.
Europa heeft nu te maken met twee onzekerheden. De eerste is de angst voor een golf van steeds hoogwaardigere goederen die vanuit China de EU in (gaan) komen. De tweede is de angst dat de Amerikaanse aandacht in de handelsoorlog nu weer naar de EU zal gaan.
Ik zou iedereen daarom ook willen aanraden om van de kans gebruik te maken de koppen op je in te laten werken en misschien wat achtergrondstukken te lezen.
Interessant vandaag is o.a. een stuk in The Kyiv Independent over moeilijke afwegingen in Oekraïne om verdere sancties in te stellen tegen Chinese bedrijven die de Russische oorlogsmachine helpen. Daarnaast heeft Der Spiegel een lang stuk en podcast met nieuwe details over de Chinese spionagezaak rond AfD-politicus Maximilian Krah. Ook de moeite waard is de eerste toespraak van bondskanselier Merz in de Bondsdag, waarin hij o.a. zijn visie op China uiteenzette.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Aziatische restaurants vangen bot bij rechtbank: koks uit Azië halen blijft voorlopig lastig – de Volkskrant 🇳🇱
Exclusive: Ukraine eyes new sanctions on Chinese firms, but Kyiv wary of peace talks fallout – The Kyiv Independent: ‘Kyiv is hoping China can nudge its Russian ally toward negotiating a ceasefire and bringing end to the invasion, Ukrainian officials said.’ 🇺🇦
Germany’s new chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) to pursue ‘strategic de-risking’ from China – SCMP: ‘in a first major speech to the Bundestag that suggested a tougher approach that would press Beijing to be more accountable on geopolitical issues.’ 🇩🇪
Die Regierungserklärung von Friedrich Merz im Wortlaut – Focus Online:
Bei der Bewältigung globaler Herausforderungen wie auch in der Wirtschaft wird China ein wichtiger Partner Deutschlands und der Europäischen Union bleiben.
Dabei werden wir uns selbstbewusst für die Einhaltung vereinbarter industrie- und handelspolitischer Regeln einsetzen. Im Sinne eines strategischen De-Risking werden wir einseitige Abhängigkeiten abbauen.
Wir sehen, dass es in Chinas außenpolitischem Handeln Elemente systemischer Rivalität gibt. Die gewachsene Nähe zwischen Peking und Moskau betrachten wir mit Sorge. Wir werden gegenüber China mit Bestimmtheit dafür eintreten, dass es seinen Beitrag zur Beilegung des Krieges in der Ukraine leistet.
Unsere China-Politik werden wir regional einbetten. Eine stabile, freie und sichere Indo-Pazifik Region ist für Deutschland und die Europäische Union von großer Bedeutung. Freie Seeschifffahrt und sichere Handelsrouten sind in unserem außenpolitischen und wirtschaftlichen Interesse. Deshalb werden wir uns stark um diese Region bemühen.
Denn die internationale Ordnung verändert sich tiefgreifend. Sie ist zunehmend geprägt von Systemrivalität und Großmachtpolitik.
Wir haben gelernt, dass wir unsere Lieferketten diversifizieren und einseitige Abhängigkeiten abbauen müssen. Für die Bundesregierung heißt das auch: Wir müssen unsere Partnerschaften in der Welt vertiefen und ausbauen. […]
Korruptionsermittlungen gegen AfD-Politiker: Die China-Connection des Maximilian Krah – Der Spiegel: „Laut Ermittlungsakten sollen von April 2019 bis Dezember 2022 mehr als 50.000 Euro geflossen sein. Das Geld stammt demnach von Firmen aus dem Umfeld des mutmaßlichen chinesischen Agenten Jian G.“
„Auf der Homepage des Lobbyvereins Neue Seidenstraße taucht Min Z. bis heute als Vizevorsitzende auf.“
„Krahs jahrelanges Trommeln für Peking rückt nun in ein anderes Licht. Warb er für eine engere Zusammenarbeit mit China, weil er Geld dafür bekam?“ „Von Dossiers, die Jian G. über AfD-Politiker erstellt haben soll, wisse er nichts.“ 🇩🇪
Chinese defence minister Dǒng Jūn 董军 holds talks with German counterpart in Berlin – China Military Online 🇩🇪
Eerder was Dong al in Frankrijk.
Germany and the Philippines sign defence agreement in Berlin – Reuters 🇩🇪🇵🇭
Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen heads to China, days after Taiwan ex-leader’s Denmark trip – Reuters 🇩🇰
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 replies to founder of Danish Chamber of Commerce in China – Xinhua: ‘China has been and will remain an ideal, secure and promising destination for foreign investors.’ 🇩🇰
Vanaf juli zit Denemarken de Raad van de EU voor.
China ready to strengthen military-to-military relations with Russia, defence ministry spokesperson says – Xinhua 🇷🇺
Ex-VP Chen Chien-jen 陳建仁 (DPP) named as Taiwanese envoy to new Pope’s inauguration – Focus Taiwan: ‘neither MOFA nor the Presidential Office elaborated on why Lai will not attend the event in person.’ 🇻🇦
In 2013 was toenmalig president Ma Ying-jeou (KMT) wel bij de inauguratie van Paus Franciscus.
Taiwan’s ex-president Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) visits UK parliament, meets speaker Lindsey Hoyle – Taipei Times 🇬🇧
Tsai calls for more Taiwan-UK collaboration in ‘testing time for democracy’ – Taipei Times 🇬🇧
Taiwan’s security essential to regional stability, Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 (DPP) tells Copenhagen Democracy Summit – Focus Taiwan 🇩🇰
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📉💥
EU ‘has no interest’ in reviving stalled investment deal with China, says Beijing-based trade diplomat – SCMP: ‘Marjut Hannonen, head of trade for the European Union’s delegation in Beijing, told a panel discussion on Wednesday that trade ties with China had “steadily deteriorated” in the past 15 to 20 years as it put in place more barriers for business.’ 🇪🇺
China’s widening trade surplus with the European Union is fuelling fresh concerns that the 27-nation bloc risks becoming a dumping ground for cheap goods in the volatile tariff confrontation between Washington and Beijing – Bloomberg: ‘there are also concerns the swelling trade imbalance with China may reflect a stark loss of competitiveness in Europe as Chinese companies rapidly move up value chains’ 🇪🇺
France-China talks failed to resolve Cognac dispute, minister says – Reuters: ‘In France, the Chinese anti-dumping probe is regarded as retaliation for Paris’ support for EU tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.’ 🇫🇷
Beijing is a ‘red line’: Hungary vows it won’t decouple from China if pushed by Trump – SCMP: ‘The official pointed to a swathe of Chinese investment in Hungary’ 🇭🇺
China’s BYD 比亚迪 plans to establish European centre in Hungary, CEO says – Reuters 🇭🇺
Electric shock: The Chinese threat to Europe’s industrial heartland – Jakub Jakóbowski and Janka Oertel for ECFR 🇪🇺
Western carmakers risk wipeout in China, warns Jeep owner Stellantis – FT: ‘Foreign brands’ market share in China stood at 32 per cent in the first two months of this year, less than half the 64 per cent they held in 2020.’ 🇪🇺
World’s largest car carrier built by China sets sail for Europe – Xinhua 🇪🇺
VS-China 🇨🇳
China’s surprisingly quick agreement with the US to wind back punitive tariff rates put a spotlight on a Chinese negotiating team – Bloomberg: ‘a team well prepared to take on US counterparts.’ 🇺🇸
Wang Wen: Interpreting the Détente in Geneva – RUC Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies: ‘the talks reflect a Chinese approach grounded in dialectical strategy—what might be called “cooperation through contestation.”’ 🇺🇸
How China is adeptly playing the ace up its sleeve, rare earth minerals, in US trade deal – SCMP: ‘“By loosening restrictions moderately now, (China is) adopting a kite-flying strategy: neither letting the string snap nor allowing the kite to soar out of control,” [RUC’s] Wang [Xiaosong] said.’
China’s commerce ministry halts unreliable entity list and export control measures on certain US firms – Xinhua 🇺🇸
US slashes ‘de minimis’ tariff on small China parcels to as low as 30% – Reuters 🇺🇸
Shein 希音 lowered US retail prices this week after the Trump administration temporarily cut duties on Chinese imports, as the online fashion retailer moves to win back consumers scared away by recent tariff-induced price hikes – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
Exclusive: Shein 希音 to set up huge Vietnam warehouse in US tariff hedge, sources say – Reuters 🇺🇸🇻🇳
US-China trade ceasefire to drive early Christmas stockpiling – FT 🇺🇸
Tesla to resume shipping Chinese parts for Cybercab and Semi production in the US, source says – Reuters 🇺🇸
VS-Taiwan 🇹🇼
Taiwan’s double, double toil and trouble – Brad Setser for FT Alphaville: ‘the apparent stability of the Taiwan dollar has long rested on a fragile equilibrium. After all, Taiwan’s dollar is structurally weak, and there all sorts of reasons why it should be stronger. A lot stronger.’
‘Taiwan’s life insurers are of course a central part of this story. […] they are enormously exposed to any large move in the Taiwan dollar.’
‘To save its insurance industry, Taiwan probably needs to intervene massively to keep its currency weak. To save its export industry from the threat of “reciprocal” tariffs, Taiwan likely need to step back from the foreign exchange market and let its currency appreciate.’
Techoorlog 💽💥
Alarmsignal: Die Chipstrategie der EU greift zu kurz – FAZ: „während China und Amerika Hunderte Milliarden investieren, wirkt Europas Chips Act wie ein Tropfen auf den heißen Stein.“ 🇪🇺
TSMC 台積電 outlines work on nine new advanced factories this year – Taipei Times 🇹🇼
ByteDance 字节跳动’s TikTok breached digital advertising rules, European Commission says – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Ghost in the machine? Rogue communication devices found in Chinese inverters used for solar and wind – Reuters: ‘Over the past nine months, undocumented communication devices, including cellular radios, have also been found in some batteries from multiple Chinese suppliers, one of them said.’
‘Huawei is the world’s largest supplier of inverters’ 🇺🇸
Dit hoeft niet gelijk om spionage te gaan. Er kunnen fouten gemaakt zijn in de documentatie waar Reuters wat veel van maakt. Ook: in eerdere gevallen waar verborgen toegangsmogelijkheden in Chinese tech bevestigd werden, werden die gebruikt voor gemakzuchtig onderhoud op afstand, onderdeel van de soms lakse houding t.o.v. cyberveiligheid bij Chinese producenten.
Maar: tegelijkertijd zouden zulke mogelijkheden wel opties kunnen bieden aan de Chinese diensten, die al nauwe banden hebben met bijvoorbeeld Huawei.
US President Donald Trump says he’s asked Apple’s Tim Cook to stop building plants in India, taking aim at the iPhone maker’s plans to diversify its manufacturing beyond China – Bloomberg: ‘Trump said Apple will be “upping their production in the United States.”’ 🇺🇸🇮🇳
Taiwan’s Pegatron 和碩 to acquire HTC 宏達電 factories, expand in India – Taipei Times 🇮🇳
China’s commerce ministry accuses US of ‘abusing’ export control measures in Huawei 华为 AI chip curb – Reuters 🇺🇸
Chinese government tightens control over AI data centres – The Information
Tencent 腾讯 says chip stockpile can power AI training ‘for a few more generations’ despite US ban – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
SiCarrier 新凯来 – Huawei 华为 partner in chips – seeks US$2.8 billion in funds, sources say – Reuters
Huawei 华为 operating at least 11 semiconductor fabs on DRAM and foundry – TheElec
Why China’s cash-rich battery king CATL needs a blockbuster share sale – FT: ‘The company says the cash raised in Hong Kong will be used to fund its Hungarian manufacturing base’
‘Analysts said improving the company’s valuation was probably a more significant motivation.’
China’s auto boom in Russia cools as tariffs, taxes, and geopolitics bite – Caixin Global: ‘first-quarter shipments in 2025 falling 44% year-on-year’ 🇷🇺
Siemens profiteert van orders van Chinese autobouwers – FD 🇩🇪
Baidu 百度 is planning to test and eventually launch robotaxi-hailing service Apollo Go in Europe and Turkey – Bloomberg: ‘The company is in talks with Swiss Post unit PostAuto to roll out a robotaxi service in Switzerland’ 🇨🇭🇹🇷
Nissan 日産 open to making cars for Chinese partner in Sunderland, says CEO – The Guardian 🇬🇧
Wanted: China-born researchers to leave US to work in China. Attractive pay – SCMP: ‘China is launching dedicated recruitment programmes to lure Chinese-born researchers who are considering leaving the United States, a source told the South China Morning Post.’ 🇺🇸
China invites UK to its AI summit – POLITICO Europe 🇬🇧
Taiwanese cabinet approves smart robotics industry development plan – Focus Taiwan
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
China’s tech sector has seemed more or less immune to Sillicon Valley‘s kind of hype cycle, but government help is changing that – David Fickling for Bloomberg: ‘Take those EV driving ranges. […] Put all those factors together, and China’s technological edge more or less disappears.’
Inside Shein 希音’s sweatshops in Guangzhou: ‘It’s an extreme capitalist race’ – Le Monde
How deep are China-Russia military ties? – CSIS ChinaPower 🇷🇺
The political messaging of China and Serbia’s Belgrade bombing commemoration – Vincent K. L. Chang in The Diplomat: ‘Memories of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy in 1999 reinforce China and Serbia’s partnership, with an eye to establishing a “shared future.”’ 🇷🇸
How China is quietly aiding Israel’s settlement enterprise – Razan Shawamreh for Middle East Eye: ‘Chinese labour is actively and visibly contributing to the construction of Israeli settlements on occupied Palestinian land.’
‘several state-owned Chinese companies, along with other private Chinese firms, have invested directly or indirectly in Israeli settlements or companies operating within them.’ 🇮🇱🇵🇸
Political Discourse, Debate, and Decisionmaking in the Chinese Communist Party – Howard Wang for RAND
Beijing touts malaria victory in African ‘discourse power’ push – Arran Hope for Jamestown’s China Brief
Podcasts
Unter Schmiergeldverdacht: der AfD-Politiker und der Spion aus China – Der Spiegel Firewall 🍎
US-China policy under Trump 2.0, with Thomas E. Kellogg – MERICS China Podcast 🍎
China Across CSIS: PRC leadership decision-making with Mr Jon Czin – CSIS Pekingology 🍎
China pushes tech brands into new markets to skirt US tariffs – Nikkei Asia Tech Latest 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China supports UN’s core role in global security governance, defence minister Dǒng Jūn 董军 says – Xinhua: ‘meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in Berlin while attending the UN Peacekeeping Ministerial 2025’
‘China will announce new peacekeeping commitments’ 🇺🇳🇩🇪
China’s UN envoy Fù Cōng 傅聪 urges international action to end Gaza crisis – Xinhua: ‘“China urges Israel to immediately cease its military attacks on Gaza,” Fu said, noting that military action cannot resolve the conflict and only prolongs the humanitarian crisis.’ 🇮🇱🇵🇸
Chinese ambassador Xiào Jūnzhèng 肖军正: Hamas attack was ‘outrageous’, but peace requires two states – YNet 🇮🇱
US sanctions Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong firms for aiding Iran’s missile programme – AFP 🇺🇸🇮🇷
How Trump’s new man in Beijing David Perdue swung from trade globalist to China hawk – Reuters 🇺🇸
Xiplomacy: How China and LAC countries bolster shared development and boost Global South unity – Xinhua
China and Colombia presidents sign Belt and Road cooperation pact – Reuters 🇨🇴
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets Chilean president Gabriel Boric – Xinhua: ‘As firm defenders of multilateralism and free trade, China and Chile should enhance multilateral collaboration to safeguard the common interests of the Global South, Xi added.’ 🇨🇱
China to grant visa-free policy to nationals from Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay – Xinhua 🇧🇷🇦🇷🇨🇱🇵🇪🇺🇾
China and Vietnam open new international road transport route – Xinhua: ‘the first time that Chinese freight vehicles operating under the Greater Mekong Sub-region Cross-border Transport Facilitation Agreement (CBTA) will reach Vietnam’s inland regions directly via the newly opened route.’ 🇻🇳
China’s defence ministry urges Philippine side to stop risky provocations – Xinhua: ‘Otherwise, it will only taste the bitter fruit of its own doing, Jiang said.’ 🇵🇭
Japan’s foreign ministry protests China’s work on new structure near median line in East China Sea – NHK World: ‘The ministry says this will be the 19th structure built by China.’ 🇯🇵
China Coast Guard fleet patrols around Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands – Xinhua 🇯🇵🇹🇼
China’s civil affairs ministry reasserts India border claims with fresh list of ‘standard’ place names – SCMP: ‘in Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls Zangnan and says is part of the Tibetan autonomous region.’ ‘This is the fifth time China has renamed places within Arunachal Pradesh.’
‘Indian media also reported last June that the Indian Army’s information warfare division had started to rename 30 places in China’s Tibet region in retaliation for the Chinese list, but no list was made public and no additional moves ensued.’
India’s external affairs ministry rejects China’s ‘preposterous’ attempts to rename places in Arunachal Pradesh – PTI 🇮🇳
India blocks X accounts of Chinese state media over coverage of Kashmir crisis – The Guardian: ‘after Indian officials accused the outlets of spreading Pakistani propaganda and misinformation. The move came as India protested over Beijing’s decision to rename some locations in a disputed border territory.’ 🇮🇳
China economie
Chinese premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 highlights steady economic growth and high-quality development – Xinhua: ‘Li made the remarks at a State Council meeting on promoting the domestic economy, which was chaired by Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang.’
‘stressed the importance of leveraging the stability and long-term growth of the domestic economy to cushion against global uncertainties’
‘Li noted that it is imperative that China coordinates boosting domestic demand and deepening supply-side structural reform, and that it strengthens domestic and international market links.’
China unveils guidelines on advancing urban renewal campaign – Xinhua
China’s economic planner holds symposium to hear from private firms – Xinhua: ‘to gather opinions on current economic conditions and the implementation of policies on stabilizing employment and growth.’
Beijing moves to protect small Chinese traders from US trade war – SCMP: ‘China still has work to do to stabilise its economy and labour market, as uncertainties linger’
Party journal Study Times says China can establish effective market stabilisation fund – SCMP
China April bank lending tumbles more than expected amid trade war – Reuters
Chinese companies are favouring bank loans as an alternate source of funding, as they seek to lower costs amid market uncertainty – Bloomberg
Debt-laden China Vanke 万科 gets US$215 million loan from state-owned stakeholder – SCMP
2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services to open in September – Xinhua: ‘Starting this year, the fair will adopt a fixed schedule, opening on the second Wednesday of September every year’
China binnenland
China’s State Council outlines legislative priorities for 2025 – Xinhua: ‘a focus on strengthening legislation in key sectors, emerging industries, and areas involving foreign affairs.’
‘a proposed revision to the Foreign Trade Law and new rules for implementing China’s Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law.’]
Chinese vice premier Dīng Xuēxiáng 丁薛祥 calls for high-level sci-tech self-reliance to boost high-quality development – Xinhua: ‘during an inspection tour in central China's Hubei Province’
China first-quarter emissions fell despite rising power demand – AFP: ‘“The current drop is the first time that the main driver is growth in clean power generation.”’
Driver held after hitting pedestrians near Beijing primary school, state-run outlet reports – Reuters
Hong Kong
Documentary on Hong Kong journalist Ronson Chan 陳朗昇 withdrawn from overseas screenings, citing ‘pressure on the interviewee’ – HKFP: ‘Chan was the head of the Hong Kong Journalist Association (HKJA), an embattled local press union, from June 2021 to June 2024.’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwanese government cannot rule out China holding more drills as president marks a year in office – Reuters: ‘May 20 will be one year since Lai’s inauguration, though his office has yet to announce how the president might mark the day.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan sees spike in Chinese PLA military activity as country stages defence drills – SCMP 🇨🇳
Taiwanese government probing more than 20 entertainers allegedly spreading Chinese propaganda – Focus Taiwan: ‘it cannot tolerate actions intended to impact public opinion and morale in Taiwan, for example, by “sharing certain content at a certain time agreed with a certain party.”’ 🇨🇳
南非外交部擅改台灣駐處地址 由首都改列約翰尼斯堡 – 中央社 🇿🇦
Taiwanese coast guard in talks on exercises with ‘certain countries’ – Taipei Times: ‘to conduct a joint humanitarian exercise within the Taiwan Strait to combat China’s “gray zone” tactics and legal warfare’
Taiwanese defence ministry opposes opposition parties KMT and TPP’s proposed cut to special budget – Taipei Times: ‘a proposal by the opposition to cut NT$150 billion (US$4.95 billion) allocated to defense resilience from the Executive Yuan’s NT$410 billion special budget request’
Military vows strict controls for UAVs during mass production phase – Taipei Times: ‘following reports that Taiwan’s Rui Yuan II (銳鳶, Sharp Hawk) contains Chinese-made components.’
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Nine entertainers suspected of draft dodging released on bail – Focus Taiwan: ‘tapped into an illegal ring believed to be helping people dodge compulsory military service by providing them with falsified medical documents.’
KMT Pingtung chapter searched – Taipei Times: ‘for questioning over allegations of signature fraud in a campaign to recall an indigenous Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmaker.’
KMT lawmaker’s aide detained in Pingtung recall probe – Focus Taiwan: ‘on charges of document forgery and violations of the Personal Data Protection Act.’
China Qun Peng Association warned for united front on-campus activities – Taipei Times: ‘The group, which has its background in the New Party, facilitates exchanges for Taiwanese college students to China with the goal of promoting pro-unification politics.’
Opposition lawmakers pass Criminal Code amendments – Focus Taiwan: ‘add a new chapter on obstruction of justice, introducing offenses such as witness tampering and influence peddling.’
Remaining nuclear reactor to close as planned on Saturday despite law change, President Lai says – Focus Taiwan: ‘cannot be extended or restarted without a “substantive review,”’
No nuclear extension, no Taipower bailout, says KMT – Taipei Times: ‘The Executive Yuan has proposed the subsidy to alleviate Taipower’s mounting debt.’
‘Taipower’s evaluations indicate that delaying the deactivation of Ma-anshan’s No. 2 reactor would not be safe or economically viable, [chairman] Tseng said.’
DPP files for constitutional review of budget and fiscal allocation law – Focus Taiwan: ‘said the general budget proposal violates the principle of legal clarity, separation of powers under the Constitution, and Article 49 of the Budget Act’
Sports ministry to be inaugurated in September – Focus Taiwan