De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 16 juni: Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie, AIIB, Chinese economie
De Duitse nationale veiligheidsstrategie is eindelijk gepubliceerd en het is een toonbeeld van de strijd binnen de regeringscoalitie. Het taalgebruik over China zelf volgt de globale uitlijnen van het staande EU beleid en over de rest van de regio zegt men niet veel. In Brussel zelf is men ondertussen bezig met het zachtjes afraden van Huawei en het zorgenmaken over Chinese elektrische auto’s.
Een Canadese werknemer bij de in Peking gebaseerde Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is opgestapt onder luid beklag over de dominantie van de Chinese Communistische Partij (CCP) binnen de bank. De vraag is waarom dit nu gebeurt. De AIIB is door China opgericht en het zou geen verrassing moeten zijn als de Partij heeft gezorgd voor interne dominantie. Is er wat veranderd, of speelt de recente ophef in de Canadese politiek over Chinese inmenging mee?
Belangrijker dan al het bovenstaande is het steeds moeilijker te ontkennen feit dat de Chinese economie er niet zo goed voor staat. De cijfers blijven teleurstellend en men praat inmiddels over stimuleringsmaatregelen. Probleem is dat veel van de fundamentele uitdagingen van het systeem komen door goedkoop krediet, vastgoedhbubbels en andere zaken die zijn verergerd door de Chinese stimulans na de financiële crisis van 2008. Nog meer stimulans zou de structurele uitdaging vergroten. Structurele hervormingen zouden het kaartenhuis in gevaar brengen, belangen van invloedrijke groepen schaden en tegen de partijcentralisatie van Xi Jinping ingaan.
Welke opties blijven er dan over? De Partij heeft veel meer macht dan een democratische regering om onlusten tegen te gaan, bedrijven te bevriezen en banken uit elkaar te halen. Maar los van het opvangen van eventuele crises blijft de vraag hoe je weer een dynamische economie krijgt.
EU 🇪🇺
EU cuts 5 Chinese firms from sanctions list after Beijing vows to stop flow of military goods to Russia – SCMP: ‘Three companies remain on a draft sanctions list’ 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Europese Commissie: samenwerking met Huawei en ZTE bij aanleg 5G „riskant” – NRC
Commission announces next steps on cybersecurity of 5G networks in complement to latest progress report by Member States – European Commission 🇪🇺
The European Commission is planning to ban equipment from Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE from its own internal telecom networks, sources say – Bloomberg 🇪🇺
EU funding Huawei in critical tech projects despite bans on Chinese group – FT: ‘The Financial Times identified Huawei as a participant in 11 projects under the bloc’s flagship Horizon Europe research and innovation programme, receiving up to 14 per cent of funding per scheme totalling €3.89mn.’ 🇪🇺
Brussels Playbook: EU eyes Chinese cars — Vestager’s Google break-up plan — Ukraine security vows – POLITICO Europe: ‘Brussels is under pressure to impose restrictions on Chinese electric cars, over fears that imports are flooding the European market at a speed and scale that threaten the Continent’s own production of such vehicles.’ 🇪🇺
US trade representative sympathises with EU concerns over surging Chinese EV imports – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Countries push back against US’s anti-China tech policy – POLITICO Europe: ‘Officials from the European Union, Malaysia and Singapore are skeptical about the United States' efforts to cut China out of the global high-tech trading system’ 🇪🇺
Dit betrof wel antwoorden op sturende vragen van de publicatie aan de functionarissen tijdens de POLITICO Global Tech Day in Londen.
‘Alarmingly deteriorating’ situation: EU lawmakers renew calls for sanctions on Hong Kong leaders – SCMP 🇪🇺
Spokesperson of the Chinese Mission to the EU Speaks on a Question Concerning European Parliament’s Resolution on Hong Kong – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union 🇪🇺
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Mededeling: Uitstel beantwoording vragen van de leden Brekelmans en Klink over het bericht ‘Eindhovense toeleverancier van Philips en ASML opent vestiging in China’ – Minister Schreinemacher, Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal 🇳🇱
Convocatie gesprek China-strategie Australië d.d. 22 juni 2023 – Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal 🇳🇱
Chinese shoppingapp Temu verovert in recordtempo Belgische markt met ‘gratis producten’ – De Standaard 🇧🇪
Temu, the fast-growing online marketplace, is offering products to US consumers that are made in China’s Xinjiang region, which has been linked to forced labour – Bloomberg
China’s Premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 to visit Germany and France in first overseas trip – Reuters 🇩🇪🇫🇷
Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wu 吳釗燮 [Wú Zhāoxiè] and Czech president Petr Pavel attend Prague summit – Focus Taiwan: ‘According to EVC director Jakub Janda, the event marked the first time a NATO head of state publicly shared a room with a foreign minister from Taiwan.’ 🇨🇿
Nogal een precedent. Ik verbaas me nog altijd dat Chinese ‘straf’ voor Tsjechië uitblijft.
Taiwan needs its European friends: Wu – Taipei Times: ‘In other news, Gian Marco Centinaio, vice president of the upper house of the Italian parliament, arrived in Taiwan yesterday for a six-day trip, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.’ 🇮🇹
UK foreign minister Cleverly may visit China next month – Reuters 🇬🇧
Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie 🇩🇪🛡️
Duitsland presenteert voor het eerst Nationale Veiligheidsstrategie (en ook daar maakte de regeringscoalitie lang ruzie over) – de Volkskrant
Berlijn wil zich meer laten gelden in eerste naoorlogse veiligheidsstrategie – FD
Duits handboek voor lastige kwesties: „Veiligheid is nu meer dan militairen en diplomatie” – NOS
Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie der Bundesrepublik Deutschland
National Security Strategy of the Federal Republic of Germany: ‘China is a partner, competitor and systemic rival. We have observed that rivalry and competition have increased in the past years.’
China is trying to ‘remould world-order’ in a way that is ‘counter to our values’, Germany says – AFP
Germany takes aim at ‘systemic rival’ China in long-awaited, first-ever national security strategy – SCMP: ‘The paper saw the light of day after copious delays – a product of disagreements within the governing coalition.’
Men gaat lastige vragen over Taiwan, Xinjiang, en de Indo-Pacific uit de weg. Het lijkt er inderdaad op dat de interne coalitiestrijd heeft geleid tot een vrij algemeen verhaal.
The hits and misses in Germany’s new national security strategy – The Atlantic Council: ‘the Indo-Pacific at large and likeminded partners such as India, Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan do not receive any attention in the national security strategy.’
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on June 15, 2023 – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China: ‘In a complex and fluid world, it is all the more important that China, Germany and all other countries and actors engage in mutually beneficial cooperation with an open and inclusive mindset and work together for world peace and development. To view and build international relations by viewing others as competitors, rivals or even adversaries and turn normal cooperation into security or political issues will only push our world towards a vortex of division and confrontation.’
China economie 📉🇨🇳
Senior Chinese officials are soliciting advice from business leaders and economists on how to revitalise the economy in a flurry of meetings attendees have characterised as unusually urgent in their tone – Bloomberg: ‘There was a consensus among high-level government officials and some 10 people present at one meeting about two weeks ago that more and better-coordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus is needed, according to one participant.’
China’s economy slows in May, firming case for more support – Reuters
China’s private sector struggles as economic growth falters in May, youth unemployment hits new high – SCMP
China won’t use ‘bazooka-like stimulus’ to fire up economy despite rate cut, but long-term problems lurk – SCMP
China cuts third key policy rate to prop up economy, while US Federal Reserve pauses hikes – SCMP
China’s economy is way more screwed than anyone thought – Business Insider: ‘The mechanisms that drove the “Chinese miracle,” a triple-decade transformation that made the country an international force, have broken down.’ ‘China is facing a long, painful road ahead, and policymakers in the Chinese Communist Party seem uninterested in market-oriented solutions to ease their journey.’ ‘At the core of China's structural problem is debt.’
China needs more tax revenue, risking backlash from middle class – Bloomberg: ‘Less than 10% of China’s population pays any income tax at all.’ ‘China’s middle class has about 70% of its wealth tied up in housing, so a property tax “could generate resistance or even protests,” Zhang says.’
China’s millionaires keep leaving, but now outflows may be ‘more damaging than usual’ – SCMP
Mainland Chinese investors look to Southeast Asia for commercial property as political tensions, interest rates make US, Australia less appealing – SCMP
China’s hidden local government debt soars to over CN¥59 trillion [€7.6tn] – Nikkei Asia
Economists posting their Ls: If a Chinese property market falls in the forest, could it not make too much of a noise? – FT Alphaville: ‘investment banks aren’t doing themselves any favours attempting to sugarcoat the country’s increasingly dire economic straits’
China’s property tycoons remain in charge even as empires fall – Bloomberg
Glum Chinese graduates go viral with pictures of misery amid jobs anxiety – The Guardian
AIIB 🏦🇨🇦
Canadese topbestuurder weg bij Chinese AIIB vanwege invloed Communistische Partij – NRC
Chrystia Freeland says Canada will suspend work with Beijing-based bank after allegation of Chinese government control – Toronto Star
Ex-AIIB communications chief Bob Pickard says was advised to flee China after fiery resignation – Reuters
AIIB Statement on Leadership Team Changes –AIIB: ‘Mr. Pickard’s recent public comments and characterization of the Bank are baseless and disappointing.’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Palau seeks more US patrols of its waters after Chinese incursions – Reuters
Veel landen in de regio zijn bij met Amerikaanse militaire aanwezigheid, maar niet veel durfen dat openlijk te zeggen. Singapore is de afgelopen jaren een uitzondering, maar noemt daarbij natuurlijk China niet.
China is at crux of clash of Philippine presidential dynasties – Richard Heydarian for Nikkei Asia
Analysis: Xi Jinping throws Okinawa into East Asia geopolitical cocktail – Katsuji Nakazawa for Nikkei Asia: ‘Taken together, the message is clear: That 600 years back, Okinawa was under the sway of the Chinese world order.’
Only half of Chinese insurers made money abroad last year – Caixin Global
Het Westen moet zich voorbereiden op grootmacht India – Haroon Sheikh in NRC
Weekend
Longreads en achtergrond
The Long Arm of the Law(less): The PRC’s overseas police stations – Martin Purbrick for Jamestown China Brief
What does the West really know about Xi’s China? Why outsiders struggle to understand Beijing’s decision-making – Odd Arne Westad for Foreign Affairs
Construire la sécurité économique de l’Europe – Francesca Ghiretti pour Le Grand Continent
Xi Jinping reaches into China’s ancient history for a new claim to rule – The Economist’s Chaguan: ‘Mr Xi is crafting an appeal to what might be termed civilisational legitimacy. When the public is disappointed by a slowing economy and by the pandemic’s incompetent ending, this gambit must be tempting. After all, who will dare challenge a mandate to rule that is supposedly unchanged in 5,000 years?’
The Five Intriguing Paradoxes of Contemporary Chinese Young People – Fu Yu and Gui Yong, translated by David Ownby for Reading the China Dream
Aan de grens tussen Rusland en China koop je niks voor grenzeloze vriendschap – FD
Podcasts
The National Security Commission meets – CSIS Pekingology 🍎 🤖
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
US secretary of state to visit China from June 18 to 19 – Xinhua
Chinese foreign minister Qín Gāng 秦刚 rebukes US in phone call ahead of Secretary Blinken’s Beijing trip – Reuters
A senior Treasury Department official traveled to Hong Kong last week, in a sign of growing US efforts to revive engagement with China – Bloomberg
Commerce Department. blacklists firms selling US technology for Chinese hypersonics – The Washington Post
Chinese man arrested in Japan over alleged tech leak – AFP
South Korea is pressing to restore a summit with the leaders of China and Japan despite a diplomatic rift that’s led some parliament members of President Yoon Suk-yeol 尹錫悅’s party to call for the expulsion of Beijing’s envoy – Bloomberg
Diplomatic spat reveals South Korea’s pivot to hard line on China – Nikkei Asia
Tech war: China-South Korea tech trade slumps in May amid changes in Asia’s semiconductor supply chain landscape – SCMP
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets Palestinian leader Abbas, offers 3-point proposal for ‘lasting solution’ to conflict with Israel – SCMP
China’s foreign minister Qín Gāng 秦刚 offers ‘Chinese wisdom’ over Palestinian peace talks, to fund projects – Reuters
China and Mongolia to fight sandstorms amid calls to curb economic and ecological harm – SCMP
Bill Gates in China: Microsoft co-founder to meet Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 – Reuters
Thailand weighs accepting Chinese engine in submarine deal – Nikkei Asia
Chinese naval ship docks in Manila for ‘goodwill’ visit amid South China Sea tensions – The Straits Times
China binnenland
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s article on improving CCOP self-governance and Party building to be published – Xinhua
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 turns 70, but Chinese Communist Party won’t celebrate – WSJ
Wel felicitaties van Poetin.
China ramps up coal power while pushing for renewables – FT
China’s anti-corruption and discipline watchdog investigates head of MIIT ministry’s vehicle emissions review agency – Yicai Global
Hong Kong
Protest anthem Glory to Hong Kong starts to vanish from online sites as government seeks ban – The Guardian
State Department amends comment on APEC invitation for Hong Kong’s leader John Lee 李家超 – Reuters
Hong Kong national security police arrest two for perverting course of justice – HKFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan’s KMT to send high-level delegation to China forum despite Taipei’s warnings against being ‘united front tool’ – SCMP
MAC Policy Position on the CCP’s Straits Forum – Mainland Affairs Council, Republic of China (Taiwan)
US not changing policy on evacuation of citizens – Taipei Times
Deterrence preferable to war, says ex-US deputy national security advisor Matt Pottinger during visit – Focus Taiwan
Coast guard probe urged by TSP after Chinese disembark on Penghu – Taipei Times
Honduras gives 6-month notice to end free trade agreement with Taiwan – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan binnenland en economie
The Kuomintang, the political party that ruled China and then Taiwan for much of the 20th Century, is at risk of losing its position as the island’s main opposition to the new Taiwan People’s Party, a new poll shows – Bloomberg
侯友宜民調不振 王金平為救選情出這招 – 聯合報
等不到郭台銘 侯友宜月底整隊再出發 朱家軍、馬家軍協同作戰 – 聯合報
The top US liaison to Taiwan asks opposition presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 [Hóu Yǒuyí] (KMT) about how he would navigate relations with Beijing if he wins next year’s election, sources say – Bloomberg: ‘some Republicans have already signaled that a KMT victory would essentially be a defeat for the US.’ ‘Besides Hou, the top candidates in the presidential race include Tsai’s vice president, Lai Ching-te, and former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, the candidate for Taiwan People’s Party. Rosenberger met with them as well during her week-long trip.’
DPP agrees to back SDP’s Miao Po-ya 苗博雅 [Miáo Bóyǎ] in Taipei’s 6th electoral district – Focus Taiwan
Executive Yuan adviser removed over sexual harassment allegations – Taipei Times
Taipei City government security guard dismissed over sexual misconduct – Focus Taiwan
Yunlin County Councillor to detail sexual offence allegation against tv personality at news conference – Focus Taiwan
Activists slam New Taipei police’s arrest of migrant worker in church – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan central bank leaves interest rates unchanged – Focus Taiwan