De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 15 december: Filipijnen vs China
De spanningen tussen de Filipijnen en China in de Filipijnse Exclusieve Economische Zone (EEZ) nemen nog altijd verder toe. De Filipijnse ambassadeur in Washington DC heeft gelijk, als hij zegt dat niet Taiwan maar dit het grootste flashpoint is op het moment.
Ik ga geen waarschijnlijkheidspercentages geven, maar: áls er de komende weken nog een gewapend conflict(je) bijkomt in de wereld, dan is dat hier. De Filipijnen hebben hun nieuwe strategie van ‘assertieve transparency’ en het lijkt erop dat de Chinezen hierop de Filipijnen een lesje willen leren.
Een verschil met de Taiwan – waar de VS een beleid aanhouden dat we strategische ambiguïteit noemen – is dat Amerika een verdragsbondgenoot is van de Filipijnen. Twee dagen geleden herhaalde de Amerikaanse minister van defensie weer de vaste uitspraak dat de militaire bijstandsverplichting zich ook uitstrekt tot Filipijnse schepen in de Zuid-Chinese Zee. Er ligt een verdrag en het gaat ook om een atol die volgens het internationaal recht duidelijk niet Chinees is. Juridisch is het duidelijk.
Ik gebruik bewust ‘schaamteloos’ voor het beschrijven van het escalerende gedrag van de Chinese strijdkrachten tegen de Australische en Canadese marines en nu de Filipijnen, omdat het een teken is van zorgwekkende minachting voor de omgangsnormen op de zee.
Bij zulke ‘sociale’ transgressie is het extra schadelijk dat niet alleen de regionale ASEAN niks zegt, maar ook dat landen als Nieuw-Zeeland met vlakke verklaringen komen die China niet durven te benoemen. Het is daarom goed dat Europese Unie en ook de Nederlandse ambassadeur wel een poging doen bij te dragen aan het normherstel.
Taiwanese verkiezingen
Over een maand precies, op maandag 15 januari 2024, spreken mijn Clingendael-collega Xiaoxue Martin en ik in Den Haag voor het Leiden Asia Centre over de uitslagen van de Taiwanese verkiezingen van 13 januari. Je kunt je nu al registeren.
Om ondertussen de tijd te doden, kun je mijn stuk voor de Clingendael Spectator lezen over de rol van ‘China’ en mijn stuk voor Taiwan Insight van de Universiteit van Nottingham over Nederlands-Taiwanese betrekkingen. Voor de Nederlandstaligen is er mijn oude achtergrondstuk over het Nederlandse en Europese één-Chinabeleid.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
EU-China relations: amid Brussels’ de-risking plans, European firms are reluctant to speak up on China – SCMP: ‘Fear of retaliation from Beijing and a reluctance to air what could be highly sensitive trade secrets among competitors are combining to give officials a headache when gathering evidence to support Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s economic security strategy.’ 🇪🇺
This is not necessarily a new problem: when scoping out a World Trade Organization case against China over economic coercion of Lithuania, international companies were reluctant to put their names to confessionals, even if they privately admitted they’d been threatened by Beijing to cut Lithuanian components from their supply chains.
But in the space of a couple of years, the business environment in China has worsened further still.
Executives see huge risks in speaking out for fear of falling foul of opaque new anti-espionage and foreign relations laws in Beijing. Reports abound of Western companies being raided in China for flouting laws that Western business groups believe are vague and ill-explained.
Nor do businesses want to put their heads above the parapet when discussing their own de-risking plans – shorthand for not having all your production and sourcing eggs in a single Chinese basket – lest it endanger their operations in China.
Consultancy behind Volkswagen’s Xinjiang human rights abuse review faces internal rebellion – FT: ‘All of Löning’s 20 employees but the founder Markus Löning and another executive have requested to make it clear they were not backing the conclusions of the audit’
‘According to VW, the actual audit had been carried out by an unnamed Shenzhen-based law firm, while the Löning consultancy had “accompanied on site”.’ 🇩🇪
Staff of firm that cleared Volkswagen on Xinjiang labour faults audit process – SCMP: ‘As the situation unfolded publicly, senior EU figures offered comment, reiterating that if there were any doubts about labour standards in a region, European companies should move elsewhere.’ 🇩🇪
Statement on the Volkswagen Audit at the Xinjiang Site – Löning, Linkedin 🇩🇪
Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence: Council and Parliament strike deal to protect environment and human rights – Council of the EU 🇪🇺
‘Another big EU trade defence case against China coming soon. This time, EU investigators will probe biodiesel imports that according to EU industry are dumped on the bloc’s market.’ – Joanna Sopinska, Twitter 🇪🇺
‘SCOOP: Viktor Orbán’s vast right-wing lobbying operations are trying to infiltrate anti-Chinese US conservative circles – while cozying up to China at the same time.’ – Twitter, Szabolcs Panyi 🇭🇺
PM Robert Fico after meeting Chinese Foreign Affairs Vice Minister Dèng Lì 邓励: Slovakian government will respect One China Policy – TASR: ‘Fico added that he and China share the same opinion on the impossibility of resolving the conflict in Ukraine militarily. At the same time, they support meaningful peace plans.’ 🇸🇰🇺🇦
EU Parliament calls on China to abolish Tibetan boarding schools – RFA 🇪🇺
European Parliament votes for call to pursue supply chain resilience deal with Taiwan – Taipei Times: ‘Dombrovskis said that ministerial-level trade dialogue between Taiwan and the EU began last year.’ 🇪🇺
Chinezen staken financiering Britse kerncentrale – FD 🇬🇧
West-Filipijnse/Zuid-Chinese Zee 🇵🇭🇨🇳
Philippines ‘wargaming’ Chinese hostilities as sea standoffs intensify – Reuters: ‘contingency planning for an escalation of hostilities’
Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Call With Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro Jr. – US Department of Defense: ‘Secretary Austin reiterated that the Mutual Defense Treaty extends to both countries’ armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft—including those of their respective Coast Guards—anywhere in the Pacific, to include the South China Sea.’
Flashpoint is South China Sea, not Taiwan, says Philippine envoy to US Jose Manuel Romualdez – Nikkei Asia
Senator JV Ejercito reveals Chinese ambassador Huáng Xīlián 黄溪连 bullied Armed Forces of the Philippines chief Romeo Brawner – One News: ‘“[…] He told me on one occasion, Huang confronted him and even aggressively pointed at him while saying, ‘Don’t provoke us’,” the senator bared.’
Chinese ships swarmed into Second Thomas Shoal after Sunday’s resupply confrontation – SeaLight: ‘This final aggression capped off a deeply concerning and escalatory weekend of very aggressive PRC behavior against Philippine vessels.’
Funds allocated for building of structure on Ayungin[/Second Thomas] Shoal in the West Philippine Sea [South China Sea] under 2024 budget, says Angara – CNN Philippines: ‘There have been calls for the government to build the country’s own structure on Ayungin Shoal given the current crumbling state of BRP Sierra Madre’
Jun Sheng: China will firmly safeguard national sovereignty – PLA Daily: ‘It must be pointed out that the actions of the Philippine side are undeniably linked to external provocation and instigation.’
‘Jun Sheng’ is de gezaghebbende pennaam waaronder commentaren verschijnen in de officiële krant van het Chinese Volksbevrijdingsleger (PLA). Die geeft nu dus de uiteindelijke schuld aan de Grote Satan, de Verenigde Staten.
Spokesperson of the Chinese Mission to the EU Speaks on a Question Concerning the European External Action Service’s Statement on the South China Sea Issue – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union: ‘The EU’s statement, in disregard of facts, criticizes China’s legitimate law enforcement actions while endorsing the Philippines’ illegal provocations. We firmly oppose this stance and urge the EU to respect China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, as well as the efforts of countries in the region to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.’ 🇪🇺
China condemns Canada’s support for Philippines on South China Sea incidents – Reuters
Hoogspanning op open zee: Filipijnse burgers strijden tegen supermacht China – de Volkskrant: „Tientallen binnen- en buitenlandse journalisten zijn uitgenodigd om de armada van verontwaardigde burgers vast te leggen.”
Drie vingers in de lucht, de W van West-Filipijnse Zee!
Festive cheer for Filipino fishers after supply boat evades Chinese vessels – The Guardian: ‘a smaller supply boat had managed to slip past the Chinese vessels.’
‘WEST PHILIPPINE SEA: TIKTOK CENSORSHIP for CHINA!?? 🇵🇭🇨🇳 @TikTokSupport @TikTokPH’ – Richard Heydarian, Twitter
Escalating tensions in the South China Sea are making the owner of the Philippines’ biggest lender and shopping malls cautious, urging the government to not be hostile [sic] toward its neighbour and to steer clear of the US-China [sic] competition – Bloomberg
China Coast Guard navigate near Senkaku[/Diaoyutai] Islands for record 337 days this year – The Yomiuri Shimbun
Tech War 💽💥
Groene tech groeit snel in China – volgens Europa door oneerlijke concurrentie: „Overheidssteun? Die moet je hier niet noemen” – de Volkskrant: „De Chinese industriepolitiek bestaat niet alleen uit subsidies, maar uit een ondoorzichtige kluwen van overheidsregulering en -inmenging. Chinese bedrijven zijn als de dood om daar iets over te zeggen, zoals ook tijdens de persreis in Jiangsu zal blijken.”
„als alle lokale overheden zoveel steun geven aan groene technologie, leidt dat onvermijdelijk tot overcapaciteit.”
De paranoia en controledrift van de Chinese partijstaat zorgen er altijd weer voor dat persmomenten contraproductief uitvallen, ook al is er nog zo’n goede boodschap te vertellen.
Foxconn (Hon Hai 鴻海) wins approval to invest at least US$1 billion more in a 300-acre factory in India, bringing the cost to about US$2.7 billion, sources say – Bloomberg
India tops ranking for Japan manufacturers as China slips to 3rd – Nikkei Asia
China chip firm powered by US tech and money avoids Biden’s crackdown – Reuters: ‘Brite’s access demonstrates the challenges facing Washington’s bid to keep U.S. equipment and money from being used to advance China’s military ambitions’
Tech war: China memory chip maker CXMT 长鑫存储 may have made a breakthrough amid US sanctions, paper indicates – SCMP
China’s running away with production in strategic industries as US and rest of G7 suffer rapid declines, according to ITIF – SCMP
China’s ‘involuted’ new-energy industry is awash with overcapacity that could stall new economic driver – SCMP: ‘authorities have become increasingly worried about overcapacity, the industry insiders say.’
Dus de Europese Commissie is niet de enige met deze zorgen…
Chinese auto shares volatile as investors search for next BYD 比亚迪 – Nikkei Asia: ‘cutthroat price competition among Chinese electric vehicle makers has produced clear winners and losers in the stock market’
China’s military uses Microsoft mixed-reality HoloLens 2 headsets to maintain equipment, video shows – SCMP
Court hears nation’s first AI-generated voice rights case – China Daily: ‘The litigant is a voice-over artist surnamed Yin, who discovered in May that her voice was being used in many audiobooks circulating online for which she had not signed any contracts or granted permission.’
‘Made in China’ C919 jet aims for exports after first Hong Kong flight – Nikkei Asia
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Nederland en Zuid-Korea willen militair meer samenwerken – Ministerie van Defensie: „Nederland wil via de samenwerking een bijdrage leveren aan de stabiliteit in de Indo-Pacifische regio.” 🇳🇱
EU Commission wants registry for foreign lobbyists – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Export Controls: China’s long game to defend its tech chokepoints – Rebecca Arcesati for CHOICE: ‘to deter rivals like the US and Europe from cutting off access to key technologies amid intense geostrategic competition.’
The ‘Three-Body Problem’, the imperative of survival, and the misogyny of reactionary rhetoric – Chenchen Zhang for Made in China Journal
As Italy exits BRI, radio silence – China Media Project: ‘there was also no comment from China’s state-run media.’
China’s cities compete for kids: Enlightened self-interest nudges rich places to woo rural families – The Economist’s Chaguan: ‘Easing heartache will be one of their rewards.’
Taiwan’s last generation to fight China – Reuters: ‘Sun and many other veterans who cling closely to their Chinese identity do not represent mainstream Taiwan society’
Podcasts
Is Nexperia nou een Chinees bedrijf of niet? – BNR De top van Nederland 🍎
The Gilded Cage: Technology, Development and State Capitalism in China – Jude Blanchette interviews Ya-Wen Lei for Pekingology 🍎 🤖
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
South Korea scramble jets as Chinese and Russian warplanes enter its air defence identification zone – AFP: ‘Military jets from Moscow and Beijing also entered and exited Seoul’s KADIZ in November last year, prompting the South to scramble its fighter jets.’
Top defence official from US Michael Chase and China’s defence attaché Liú Zhǎn 刘展 met for first time since Chase’s Taiwan visit – FT: ‘The meeting occurred before the summit between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco last month.’
US-Chinese military hotline hasn’t been restored a month after Biden-Xi summit – NBC News
China’s envoy to US Xiè Fēng 谢锋 describes Xi-Biden meeting as ‘milestone’ in ties, stresses ‘wisdom’ of ping pong diplomacy – SCMP
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans another China trip for 2024 – SCMP
China ‘not willing’ to cooperate on fentanyl crisis until institute was removed from blacklist, US official testifies – SCMP
New Florida law blocks Chinese students from academic labs – Science: ‘The uncertainly created by the law has already put a freeze on making offers to research students in China for the fall of 2024’
China mediated Myanmar junta peace talks with rebels, says foreign ministry – Reuters
What are Chinese vessels doing at Ream Naval Base? – RFA: ‘A training course for Cambodian navy staff is underway at the newly built Ream Naval Base in Preah Sihanouk province, according to the base’s social media.’
China claims Ladakh judgment by India’s Supreme Court ‘irrelevant’ to its border dispute with India – SCMP
Exclusive: Chinese Premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 to attend Davos summit – Reuters: ‘The sources said Li would be accompanied by an unusually large and senior delegation of high-level officials from ministries involved in the management of economic and foreign affairs.’
China economie
China bets on security versus reform in 2024 outlook – FT
From outer space to seven seas, China has 6 ambitious priorities as Beijing plots economic recovery in 2024 – SCMP
Xi Jinping urges ‘to the letter’ compliance as China’s economic recovery remains top concern – SCMP: ‘during a speech to the country’s top economic and financial officials.’
Terwijl Xi natuurlijk elders oproepen doet tegen ‘formalisme’ en ‘bureaucratisme’.
China wants to build ‘first-class’ investment banks — but isn’t telling the industry how – SCMP
China’s economy likely lost some momentum in November, raising expectations for Beijing to ramp up stimulus in the new year – Bloomberg
China’s money supply had a dismal November, as private-sector struggles and housing woes suppressed investment – SCMP
China’s stocks and bonds to suffer US$65 billion capital outflow in 2024 amid geopolitical risks and waning investor sentiment, according to IFI – SCMP
China’s Dalian Wanda 大连万达 unloads businesses to skirt bankruptcy – Nikkei Asia
China’s Country Garden 碧桂园 to sell minority stake in Dalian Wanda 大连万达 unit for US$432m – Nikkei Asia
Chinese billionaire, other Country Garden 碧桂園 execs cut pay to CN¥120,000 [€15k] – Nikkei Asia
Local governments tap CN¥208.3 billion [€27b] special bonds to fund smaller banks – Caixin Global
China binnenland
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 inspects Nanning in south China’s Guangxi – Xinhua
China’s former railway minister Shèng Guāngzǔ 盛光祖 sentenced to 15 years in prison for corruption – SCMP
Former Liaoning provincial police chief sentenced to 17 years for bribery – Caixin Global
Chinese banker jailed for life in US$483 million corruption case, largest ever in country’s history – SCMP
Tsinghua law professors call for renewing open access to China’s court judgments –
(verbonden aan de Verenig Front-verbonden denktank CCG)Hong Kong
Hong Kong national security police issue arrest warrants, HK$1 million [€120k] bounties for 5 overseas activists – HKFP: ‘The five activists are Simon Cheng, Frances Hui, Joey Siu, Johnny Fok and Tony Choi, police announced on Thursday.’
Motorcycle protester appears in ‘confessional’ video – RFA
Hong Kong’s universities shrivel in Beijing’s grip – BBC News: ‘“There is no ‘red line’,” in Hong Kong any more, says a 30-something humanities professor in the city. “If they want to come after you, everything can be used as an excuse.”’
In Hongkong heerst een angstklimaat, waarin journalisten zichzelf censureren – de Volkskrant
China’s finance ministry officials meet Hong Kong and global bankers on boosting city’s finance-hub role, according to sources – SCMP
Big Four auditor EY’s Hong Kong law practice which provides services including on IPOs and corporate finance will shut down next month – Bloomberg
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China’s TAO confirms arrest of Taiwanese writer Liao Meng-yen 廖孟彥 (Roson 羅森) for producing obscene content – Taipei Times: ‘had lost contact with his family for more than a year.’
Taiwan government releases long-awaited white paper on foreign aid policy – Focus Taiwan: ‘ditched the use of the term “foreign aid” employed by the KMT government and replaced it with “international development cooperation.”’
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu 吳釗燮 says he will step down in coming months after six years sparring with an increasingly aggressive Beijing – WSJ
Ex-Taiwan envoy to UK Kelly Hsieh 謝武樵 appointed as deputy foreign minister – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s new US envoy Alexander Yui 俞大㵢: West needs to call out China to prevent invasion – POLITICO Europe: ‘China is “preparing very seriously to have the ability to invade Taiwan,” Yui said’
US and Taiwan to keep pressing for Taipei’s inclusion in WHA and other international bodies – SCMP
Sampling of custard apple exports to China to be boosted – Taipei Times: ‘The stricter sampling and examination is a response to pests reportedly being detected in a recent container of custard apples exported to China.’
Ex-Navy Admiral Liu Ho-chien 劉和謙 dies at 97 – Focus Taiwan: ‘helped Taiwan purchase [two Dutch upgraded Zwaardvis-class] submarines in the 1980s, despite various difficulties.’ 🇳🇱
Taiwan verkiezingen
Chinese forces approached close to Taiwan coast to ‘intimidate’ voters before key elections, sources say – Reuters: ‘China’s air and naval forces staged four coordinated manoeuvres approaching Taiwan’s contiguous zone, which is 24 nautical miles (44 km) off its coast, in November, according to multiple Taiwan security officials who discussed the matter with reporters and an internal Taiwanese memo summing up the Chinese activities.’
2024 Elections: Borough wardens in hot water over China tours – Taipei Times
Forty detained over voting interference – Taipei Times: ‘nine are suspected of helping a foreign power to meddle in next month’s presidential and legislative elections.’
China’s intimidation will not help cross-Strait dialogue, says DPP’s Lai Ching-te 賴清德 – Focus Taiwan
Senior Taiwan opposition leader Andrew Hsia 夏立言 (KMT) visits China month before election – Reuters: ‘Two sources briefed on the trip, speaking on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media, told Reuters that Hsia was likely to meet Taiwan Affairs Office officials.’
KMT denies vice chairman Andrew Hsia 夏立言 has plans to meet with senior officials during China visit – Focus Taiwan: ‘The “fake” Reuters report on Thursday was nothing more than an “attempted collaboration between the DPP and certain media outlets” to run a “smear campaign against the KMT’s efforts to conduct exchanges with the Chinese Mainland and to offer services to the Taiwanese business community there,” the KMT said’
De KMT behoorlijk op het orgel tegen de media met een ontkenning die (nét als bij het vorige bezoek van Hsia) toch nog openlaat dat er ‘ongeplande’ ontmoetingen of ontmoetingen met ‘niet-seniore’ functionarissen plaatsvinden.
DPP condemns KMT’s Hsiao Bi-khim claims – Taipei Times: ‘followed the KMT yesterday saying that the DPP’s vice presidential candidate Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) had secretly met with US non-governmental organization Spirit of America (SoA) to provoke a war in the Taiwan Strait.’
Het Taipeise raadslid Hsu Chiao-hsin 徐巧芯 was eens de jonge hoop van de KMT, gehoopt onderdeel van een Taiwaniserende toekomst die de partij verkiesbaarder zou kunnen maken onder jongere Taiwanezen. Nu verspreidt ze anti-Amerikaanse samenzweringstheorieën.
Will the KMT seek to freeze budgets if in control of legislature after the elections? – New Bloom: ‘There has been increased scrutiny on when pan-Blue legislators seek to freeze budgets in a way that impacts national security as of late.’ ‘KMT legislator Ma Wen-chun was accused of leaking military secrets to South Korea and China in order to try and stymie the program’
About 60 per cent of Taiwanese support hike of defence budget so it exceeds 3% of GDP – Taipei Times: ‘However, support for a higher defense budget drops to 41 percent if the government funds it by increasing taxes, the poll showed.’
DPP’s Lai Ching-te 賴清德 promises to level up salaries in Taiwan – Focus Taiwan: ‘recent polls suggesting that the DPP’s support among under 30s has dropped significantly after nearly eight years in power’
TSMC casts long shadow on Taiwan election – FT: ‘the outsized role TSMC and the semiconductor industry overall play in Taiwan’s economy has become a concern for many voters.’ ‘Economists agree that Taiwan’s economy is growing too lopsided.’
TPP’s Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 asks Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) to clarify Taiwan independence stance – Focus Taiwan: ‘“It’s Tsai’s cross-strait and internal policies we oppose. We support Tsai’s foreign affairs policy,” Ko said.’
Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴 (DPP) is Taiwan’s cat warrior – The Economist’s Banyan: ‘Ms Hsiao’s promise, then, is of continuity. Under Mr Lai, the current vice-president, Taiwan would keep building alliances and strengthening its defences.’
KMT’s VP candidate Jaw Shaw-kong 趙少康 shares softer side with young voters – Focus Taiwan: ‘The DPP’s strategy is pro-America and anti-China, while the KMT’s strategy is pro-America and engaging with China, [Jaw] said.’
Jaw was een van de oprichters in de jaren negentig van de pro-‘hereniging’ New Party.
KMT says its internal survey shows it ahead of DPP – Taipei Times: ‘KMT estimates show there would be “major” contention over 15 legislative seats’
Ex-KMT official Fang Cheng-lien 范成連 among 13 people indicted for buying signatures for Terry Gou – Taipei Times: ‘The KMT last month voted to expel Fang from the party for aiding in Gou’s signature drive.’
Taiwan’s female vice-presidential picks reflect commitment to gender equality, but challenges remain – The Straits Times: ‘Female political participation is also at an all-time high, partly helped by a long tradition of gender quotas in elections.’
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Central bank raises Taiwan’s GDP growth forecast to from 3.08% to 3.12% for 2024 – Focus Taiwan: ‘the central bank cut its forecast of Taiwan’s GDP growth for 2023 to 1.40 percent from the previous estimate of 1.46 percent’
Cabinet approves plan to raise social housing to 1 million units by 2032 – Focus Taiwan