De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 14 juni: elektrische auto’s, Chinese vrede voor Oekraïne
De aankondiging van de Europese Unie dat er, zoals verwacht, heffingen komen op de invoer van elektrische auto’s uit China heeft even kunnen indalen. Peking is niet blij. Dat was te verwachten. Wat ze gaan doen, weten we nog niet zeker. Er komen wel al omineuze geluiden binnen over zuivel en varkensvlees. Gaan we boze Franse boeren zien in de aanloop naar Macrons verrassingsverkiezingen?
De heffingen zijn hoger dan verwacht, maar niet zo hoog als ze volgens Rhodium zouden moeten zijn om de Chinese producenten hun winstmarges helemaal af te pakken. Ook zijn ze gedifferentieerd. Volkswagen-partner en staatsbedrijf SAIC krijgt wegens gebrek aan medewerking het hoogste tarief. BYD het laagste. Daardoor ging de elektrische belofte gelijk omhoog op de beurs. Bedrijven in China die nu nog mee gaan werken kunnen uiteindelijk ook nog lager uitkomen.
Dit maakt heel duidelijk wat Brussel beoogt met deze aanpak. Chinese auto’s gaan niet onverkoopbaar worden in Europa. Tegelijkertijd helpt dit wel met de wens om meer productie in Europa te stimuleren. Naast de Europese (Duitse) bedrijven die nu ook in China actief zijn, moet je vooral denken aan Chinese merken.
Kortgeleden kondigde Chery Auto al aan dat het zou produceren in Spanje – waar het nu naar verwijst in een geruststellende reactie. Over Geely’s Volvo schreef The Times afgelopen zondag ook dat het productie naar Gent zou halen uit China. Ook batterijproducenten als CATL kondigden investeringen in Europa aan (Hongarije!).
Gaan we de Chinese fabrieken verwelkomen en proberen van hen te leren door op te klimmen in hun leveringsketens, net als de Chinese bedrijven rondom de buitenlandse fabrieken deden in China? Of zal hier juist de nieuwe Verordening buitenlandse subsidies (bekend van de invallen bij Nuctech in Rotterdam en Warschau) noodzakelijkerwijs of niet ingezet worden om de gevolgen van steun in het Chinese buitenland voor activiteiten binnen Europa te ondervangen?
Aangezien het Chinese aandeel in de Europese markt nu nog niet extreem is, zullen de gevolgen voor de consument beperkt blijven. Naast de productieverschuivingen op termijn zullen we nu dus eerst vooral de politieke gevolgen krijgen. De boze verklaringen van alle delen van het Chinese systeem zijn daar een begin van.
Er staat veel op het spel. De inzet van Xi Jinpings New Development Paradigm is de economische kracht garanderen en het Westen inhalen door een sprong te maken naar de industrieën van de toekomst. De elektrische auto’s zijn daar essentieel voor. Voor Europa gaat het om miljoenen banen en industriële kroonjuwelen.
Welke vergelding komt, gaan we zien. De heffingen zijn voorlopig. We gaan nu een periode in waarin China zal proberen te onderhandelen met dreigementen en zoetmakers. Hierbij zal het gebruik maken van tegenstand onder grote bedrijven, Duitsland, Zweden en Hongarije. (Heeft Boedapest hierover spreekpunten verspreid onder zijn honorair consuls?)
Brussel verwelkomt in ieder geval de Chinese dreiging om naar de Wereldhandelsorganisatie te stappen. Een erg interessant stuk in de South China Morning Post schrijft over het verloop het onderzoek. De Commissie zou in elk deel en elke stap van de leveringsketens staatssteun in allerlei kleuren en geuren aangetroffen hebben. Ik denk dat de EU dit graag aantoont voor een beroepscommissie in Genève.
Het meest opvallende bericht vandaag komt van Reuters. Het persbureau schrijft dat Peking niet alleen weigert deel te nemen aan de Oekraïense vredesconferentie in Zwitserland, maar ook actief de alternatieve vredespunten van China en Brazilië uitdraagt in het Mondiale Zuiden, claimend dat de vredesconferentie de oorlog enkel verlengt. Dit zou de claim bevestigen van president Zelenskyy in Singapore eerder deze maand dat China probeert de bijeenkomst te saboteren. Tegelijkertijd gaat dit nog niet zo ver als sommigen vreesden.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
China waarschuwt Nederland na ‘illegale’ doorvaart marineschip – AD: „Shen Dingli, hoogleraar internationale betrekkingen aan de Chinese Fudan-Universiteit, zegt dat de helikopter het grootste probleem is voor de Chinezen. ,,Dat mag niet binnen China’s zogeheten Exclusieve Economische Zone (EEZ)”, zegt hij. […] Volgens het internationale zeerecht zou een helikoptervlucht binnen de Chinese EEZ [wel] gewoon mogen. Friso Dubbelboer, een politicoloog verbonden aan het Leiden Asia Centre met expertise in het zeerecht, zegt dat binnen de EEZ bijna alles is toegestaan wat ook in internationale wateren is toegestaan, zelfs militaire oefeningen.” 🇳🇱
China heeft altijd creatieve interpretaties gehad van het zeerecht. Juist om dat te corrigeren en te voorkomen dat het gewoonterecht wordt, is zo’n Nederlandse actie nuttig.
‘On June 7, the #Dutch Navy’s frigate HNLMS Tromp's shipboard #helicopter provocatively infringed upon #China's #maritime rights in the East China Sea, according to China's Ministry of National Defense . The People's Liberation Army of China issued verbal warnings and dispatched fighter jets to drive it away.’ – Shanghai Daily, Twitter 🇳🇱
Deze tweet van een Engelstalige propaganda-outlet heeft een video waarin een Chinees jachtvliegtuig flares afschiet.
Joint civil society organisations letter calling for suspension of EU-China human rights dialogue – Human Rights Watch 🇪🇺
Rusland 🇷🇺
🚨 Exclusive: China pushes rival Ukraine peace plan before Swiss summit, diplomats say – Reuters:
In conversations with developing nations, China has not overtly criticised the Swiss summit or directly asked countries to abstain, the Beijing-based diplomats told Reuters.
But one who was briefed on the outreach said Beijing has told developing nations the meeting would prolong the war, while two diplomats with direct knowledge of the matter said China has been telling Western nations that many developing countries are aligned with its views on the conference.
[…]
As the summit approaches, China has intensified its outreach through meetings with visiting foreign dignitaries, phone calls and messages to foreign missions on China's WeChat platform, diplomats said.
Beijing’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, last month visited Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and has met officials of developing countries at their embassies in Beijing, the diplomats said.
While explaining why it will not attend the summit, China has been trying to enlist developing nations to join the six-point peace plan it issued with Brazil last month.
The proposal calls for an international peace conference “held at a proper time that is recognised by both Russia and Ukraine, with equal participation of all parties as well as fair discussion of all peace plans.”
US mulls new actions against China firms supplying Russia defence sector – Reuters 🇷🇺
China urges US to immediately stop illegal unilateral sanctions and play constructive role in Ukraine crisis – Xinhua: ‘The U.S. unilateral sanctions have created victims all over the world, severely undermined other countries' sovereignty and security, caused humanitarian tragedies and disrupted industrial and supply chains, Lin said.’ 🇺🇦
Yellen says larger Chinese banks wary of violating US sanctions on Russia – Reuters 🇷🇺
Hong Kong firms among hundreds hit with US sanctions for supporting Russia’s ‘war economy’ – HKFP 🇷🇺
A giant state-owned Chinese commodities trader is nursing losses after a shipment of copper from Russia worth nearly $20 million went missing, reigniting fears over metals trading fraud – Bloomberg: ‘Russia is one of the world’s biggest copper suppliers and China is the largest consumer.’ 🇷🇺
Elektrische auto’s 🚗⚡️
Met de forse nieuwe importheffingen zet Brussel de markt voor elektrische auto’s op zijn kop – NRC: „Inderdaad lijkt het niet direct logisch dat de prijs van Chinese elektrische auto’s enorm zal stijgen, zegt de Duitse auto-analist Matthias Schmidt. ‘De marges die ze in Europa maken zijn zo groot dat ze daarop kunnen interen.’” 🇪🇺
Dat de importtarieven op e-auto’s pijn gaan doen, lijkt zeker. Maar bij wie precies? – de Volkskrant 🇪🇺
EU wil fors hogere importtarieven op elektrische auto's uit China: „Kan positief uitpakken voor Europa” – EenVandaag: „Brancheorganisatie Bovag heeft begrip voor het plan van de Commissie. Woordvoerder Paul de Waal zegt dat een gelijk speelveld ook voor hen belangrijk is” 🇪🇺
In de handelsdans met China is het vooral oppassen niet te struikelen – FD 🇪🇺
🚨 ‘The whole supply chain is subsidised’: inside the EU’s blockbuster Chinese EV probe – SCMP: ‘Questionnaires were sent to the companies, each running to 60-odd pages and over 18,000 words.’ ‘only SAIC chose not to comply and found itself on Wednesday facing the highest import duty’ ‘The Chinese government was also sent a batch of questionnaires, which it declined to forward to selected lithium providers and local banks on the EU’s behalf.’
‘Brussels is confident that it has a watertight case for the tariffs, and would welcome a WTO challenge, where it would point to the fact that some Chinese companies will pay lower duties than European rivals.’
‘Their investigators turned up subsidies everywhere they looked. Lithium processers and battery makers were told by the state to sell to EV companies below market rates, they said, while the car companies were exempt from battery consumption taxes.’
‘The firms issued green bonds that government-run financial institutions were ordered to buy, and were granted concessional land, income tax breaks and cheap refinancing options mandated by the People’s Bank of China, the central bank.’
Commission investigation provisionally concludes that electric vehicle value chains in China benefit from unfair subsidies – European Commission: 🇪🇺
The individual duties the Commission would apply to the three sampled Chinese producers would be:
• BYD: 17,4%;
• Geely: 20%; and
• SAIC: 38,1%.
Other BEV producers in China, which cooperated in the investigation but have not been sampled, would be subject to the following weighted average duty: 21%.
All other BEV producers in China which did not cooperate in the investigation would be subject to the following residual duty: 38,1%.
What the EU’s tariffs on electric vehicles mean for China – FT: ‘tariffs would promote localisation of EV manufacturing in Europe and could be positive for competition.’ ‘However, Russo said […] would do little to stand in the way of sales growth by BYD’ 🇪🇺
Brussels is gambling that tariffs on Chinese EVs are a prod, not a punch – Sam Lowe for FT Alphaville 🇪🇺
Chinese electric carmakers may be crying foul over EU tariffs, but they have several options to keep growing – Bloomberg: ‘BYD shares jumped as much as 8.8% in Hong Kong trading Thursday,’ 🇪🇺
EV tariffs expected to slow but not halt China's drive into European market – Nikkei Asia 🇪🇺
reactie
China threatens to challenge European EV duties at WTO – POLITICO Europe 🇨🇳
Chinese firms reserve right to request investigations into EU pork and dairy – Reuters 🇨🇳
‘#Exclusive: The Global Times has learned from a business insider that relevant #Chinese industries have formally filed an application to competent authorities to launch an anti-dumping investigation into imports of certain pork from the #EU.’ – Global Times, Twitter
Xinhua Headlines: EU bent on imposing protectionist duties on Chinese EVs despite looming lose-lose implications – Xinhua
China’s commerce ministry deplores EU plan to impose provisional duties on Chinese EVs – Xinhua: ‘the Chinese EV industry’s advantages stem from openness and competition.’ ‘The spokesperson said that China will take all necessary measures to defend the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.’ 🇨🇳
EU’s anti-subsidy probe into Chinese EVs ‘typical protectionism’, foreign ministry spokesperson says – Xinhua: ‘“China will take all measures necessary to firmly defend our lawful rights and interests,” the spokesperson said.’ 🇨🇳
China’s trade promotion body strongly opposes EU’s plan to impose additional EV duties – Xinhua: ‘The spokesperson accused the EU of having double standards as it has provided substantial subsidies to its own EV and battery industries.’ 🇨🇳
Xinhua Commentary: EU’s new EVs tariff a self-inflicted flat tire – Xinhua 🇨🇳
Xinhua Commentary: EU’s best-laid plan for economic boom is teaming with China – Xinhua: ‘Prominent European political figures, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, also opposed the tariff hikes, calling for free trade. The EU, […] often falls victim to trade protectionist measures from countries like the United States’ 🇨🇳
Economic Watch: The West has double standards when it comes to Chinese clean tech – Xinhua 🇨🇳
China’s Chery Auto 奇瑞: EU factory will help mitigate EV tariffs – Reuters 🇨🇳🇪🇸
Europe’s automakers fret as China EV tariff fears become reality – Reuters 🇪🇺
European dairy and pork producers wary of Chinese retaliation for EV tariffs – Reuters 🇪🇺
French cognac makers ‘deeply concerned’ after EU slaps tariffs on Chinese EVs – Reuters 🇪🇺
Airbus frets over global trade tensions amid EU-China spat – Reuters 🇪🇺
Peking slaagt er altijd best aardig in om onze bedrijven de conditioneren. Er zijn belangrijke objectieve redenen voor deze bedrijven om zich zorgen te maken. Maar het is ook goed om bewust te zijn van het feit dat zorgen dat buitenlandse zakenmensen zich uitspreken voor Chinese belangen is een belangrijke taak voor het verenigd front-systeem.
achtergrond
Marokko, de lachende derde in de auto-oorlog tussen Europa en China – De Standaard 🇲🇦
Shares of Evergrande 恒大’s EV unit slide after order to repay subsidies – WSJ: ‘due to its failure to meet contractual obligations’
Chinese EV makers’ price wars in overseas markets will sow doubts over quality, Bain says – SCMP
2024/04/29: Ain’t No Duty High Enough – Gregor Sebastian, Noah Barkin and Agatha Kratz for Rhodium Group: ‘Duties in the 40-50% range—arguably even higher for vertically integrated manufacturers like BYD—would probably be necessary to make the European market unattractive for Chinese EV exporters.’
Chinese zonnepaneelfabrikanten willen stop op subsidieovervloed – FD
Tech War 💽💥
India attracts chipmaking equipment companies as China alternative – Nikkei Asia: ‘International chip industry group SEMI will hold its Semicon exhibition in India for the first time in September near New Delhi.’ 🇮🇳
Taiwan’s iconic hi-tech sector drifts towards India, Thailand, and Vietnam to hedge political risk – SCMP 🇮🇳🇹🇭🇻🇳
Production value of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry to rise 17.7% – Taipei Times: ‘outpace the global semiconductor industry’s 13.1 percent rise this year’
beïnvloeding
Stakes raised for Chinese Premier’s visit with new allegations of decades of interference – Stuff NZ: ‘revelations that Chinese Communist Party influence and interference operations in New Zealand have been going on for decades’
‘when we interview Andrew Little, then-Minister Responsible for the NZ Security Intelligence Service, we’re surprised at his candour: he’s blunt, to a degree no previous minister in the role had been, telling us that of all the national security threats the SIS deals with, “half of their effort goes into foreign interference… and the country that gets most attention from our authorities is China”.’ 🇳🇿
China and New Zealand deepen trade ties and discuss rights issues during Premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 visit – Reuters 🇳🇿
Sino-Russische uitdaging 🇷🇺🇨🇳
NATO chief says the alliance is adapting its nuclear arsenal to security threats – Reuters: ‘Stoltenberg also referred also to the modernisation of China’s nuclear weapons’
Troubled G7 leaders focus on Ukraine war and China in Italian summit – Reuters
China and Russia fail to stop UN Security Council meeting on North Korea rights abuses – Reuters: ‘China and Russia argue that the Geneva-based U.N. Human Rights Council is the appropriate venue for discussions on human rights.’ 🇺🇳🇰🇵🇷🇺
Chinese envoy urges calm and diplomacy on Korean Peninsula – Xinhua: ‘Geng expressed regret over the Security Council’s decision to focus on the DPRK’s human rights issues, noting that such actions could further complicate the already delicate situation.’ 🇺🇳🇰🇵
In de recente aflevering van de podcast Drum Tower van The Economist (betaalmuur) heeft David Rennie een goede opmerking over de manier waarop China gebruik lijkt te maken van de Russische slopersrol in de VN-veiligheidsraad.
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
China’s maritime militia: the shadowy armada whose existence Beijing rarely acknowledges – The Guardian
Why China takes young Tibetans from their families: Visiting a Tibetan region where children must attend Chinese-language boarding schools – The Economist’s Chaguan
China training Global South in ‘authoritarian’ ways, Atlantic Council report says – Nikkei Asia
A Global South with Chinese characteristics – Niva Yao for The Atlantic Council
Podcasts
Does China’s foreign ministry matter? – CSIS Pekingology with Dylan Loh 🍎
China-Russia Trade Relations and the Limits of Western Sanctions – GMFUS China Global with Yanmei Xie 🍎
Fraud Factories and Pig Butchery: Chinese Triads go Pacific – The Little Red Podcast 🍎
China’s upstart strategy: A conversation with Dr Oriana Skylar Mastro – CSIS ChinaPower 🍎
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Senior US diplomat Kurt Campbell believes China determined to stabilise relations – Reuters: ‘Campbell told Washington’s Stimson Center think tank China needed to reassure investors and others that it has a plan for its economy and would not be looking to create frictions that could escalate in unpredictable and dangerous ways.’ 🇺🇸
The second China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue calls for stable relations through cooperation – Xinhua 🇺🇸
Xinhua and Reuters presidents hold talks on cooperation – Xinhua
Xinhua and AP presidents discuss media cooperation – Xinhua
US lawmakers to meet Dalai Lama on India trip next week – Reuters 🇺🇸
Argentina President Milei to meet with Xi in China – Reuters 🇦🇷
China overlooks Milei’s rhetoric, hands Argentina CN¥35 billion [€4.5bn] currency swap lifeline – SCMP 🇦🇷
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 delivers video speech to opening ceremony of UNCTAD 60th anniversary celebration – Xinhua: ‘Xi called on all sides to foster an international environment for peaceful development.’
A 2,000-mile train journey from Bangkok to Beijing, which will boost tourism and trade, is a step closer to reality – Bloomberg: ‘[Thailand] will run a trial service between Bangkok and Laos’ capital of Vientiane between July 13 and 14’ 🇹🇭🇱🇦
China has issued a travel warning for Palau after the tiny Pacific nation accused Beijing of involvement in a cyberattack in which government documents were stolen – Bloomberg: ‘Palau is one of only 12 countries that maintain diplomatic ties to Taiwan’ 🇵🇼
More local centres for global propaganda – China Media Project: ‘China’s provincial and city-level international communication centers, or ICCs, are spearheading efforts promoted by the leadership since 2018, and accelerating over the past two years, to “innovate” foreign-directed propaganda under a new province-focused strategy.’
China economie
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 emphasises improving modern corporate system with Chinese characteristics – Xinhua: ‘it is imperative to give play to the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, strengthen the leadership of the CPC, and improve corporate governance.’
China real estate firms see 4% sales volumes growth after state help – Nikkei Asia
China’s fast fashion, globally popular shopping apps prove boon to Shenzhen’s e-commerce sector – SCMP
US tops China as ASEAN’s largest export destination – Nikkei Asia: ‘for the first time in six quarters’
China binnenland
China sends emergency relief to central and eastern provinces Shandong and Henan battling extreme drought – SCMP
From northwest to east China, parched and baking regions face drought – Reuters: ‘China's Water Resources Ministry this week launched emergency responses to manage drought on in Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and Shandong provinces’
‘Surface temperatures could hit 70 C in some localities including in Shanxi and Shaanxi’
China’s health system anti-corruption drive nets another senior official in Guizhou – SCMP
China’s ethnic policy chief Pān Yuè 潘岳 slams ‘ignorance of history’ in Xinjiang assimilation claims – SCMP: A university textbook edited by Pan, published in February, has been described by experts as the most direct articulation of China’s ethnic integration policy as laid down by Xi a decade ago.’
Hong Kong
76% of applications for Hong Kong’s new investment visa scheme from residents of Vanuatu and Guinea-Bissau – HKFP 🇻🇺🇬🇼
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan’s new president Lai Ching-te 賴清德 is standing his ground – Time: ‘Lai tells TIME, “What I said was the truth. According to international law, we are already a sovereign and independent country. My goal is to bring the people of Taiwan together.”’
Transcript of TIME’s exclusive interview with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te 賴清德 – Time: ‘I have always believed that a stable China leads to a safer Taiwan. A prosperous Taiwan can also bring about progress in China. Therefore, I do not wish to see growing difficulties in China’s economy, or its society become more unstable.’
How Hsiao Bi-Khim 蕭美琴—Taiwan’s ‘Jersey girl’ VP—is boosting her homeland’s place in the world – Time: ‘“If you get a Trump presidency, or a Biden presidency with a Republican Congress, moving Hsiao to the presidential office makes sense because she has very good ties across the aisle in Washington,” says Chong Ja Ian, an expert on Taiwan politics at the National University of Singapore.’
President Lai eyes closer economic ties with US – Focus Taiwan: ‘Lai said ahead of a closed-door meeting with former U.S Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger at the Presidential Office.’
‘In particular, Lai said he looked forward to seeing the issue of double taxation being solved, as well as progress in the negotiations under the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade that was launched in June 2022.’ 🇺🇸
President Lai to preside over Whampoa Military Academy centennial celebrations in Kaohsiung – Focus Taiwan
China invite to Whampoa Military Academy centennial commemorative event in Guangzhou ‘united front’ tactic, veterans minister says – Focus Taiwan: ‘the Chinese Communist Party Central Military Commission had approached some ROC retired generals’ 🇨🇳
Chinese tour operators postpone visit to Matsu – Taipei Times: ‘due to a scheduling conflict’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan’s HIMARS and Javelin deliveries expected ahead of schedule – Taipei Times: ‘Delivery and installation of the 18 HIMARS, […], would be completed as early as 2026, the official said.’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan coast guard vessel Hsinchu anchored in Honolulu for international operation – Taipei Times: ‘in connection to an international fishery rules enforcement operation’ 🇺🇸
Canada envoy says nation is open to investment deal – Taipei Times 🇨🇦
Army training to focus on hand-to-hand combat rather than bayonet training – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Legislature to vote on government oversight bills on June 21 – Focus Taiwan: ‘would have Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) […] take questions from lawmakers of all parties on the legislative floor from June 19 to 20.’
‘Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘), the DPP’s legislative caucus whip, said Thursday that should the Legislature maintain the approval of the amendments, his party would seek a ruling from the Constitutional Court on their constitutionality.’
Former Shin Kong Life Insurance Co chairman Eugene Wu 吳東進 released on NT$100m [€2.9m] bail – Taipei Times
Tax revenue from corporate income falls 14.6 percent – Taipei Times: ‘tax revenue from personal income rose 12.5 percent’
Former Kinmen County commissioner Lee Wo-shih 李沃士 (KMT) gets prison term of seven years, six months for bribery – Taipei Times