De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 11 juli: Peking test Europa?
Het lijkt er steeds sterker op dat Peking met gestrekt been wil demonstreren dat Brussel zwak staat. In de aanloop naar de leiderstop in Peking op 24 juli verslechtert de relatie tussen de EU en China. Niet in de laatste plaats komt dit door de geluiden uit China. Ik zou haast zeggen, dat de recente acties van Peking een test zijn om te bewijzen dat de EU toch niks terug kan doen.
Europa moet niet zoeken naar een nieuwe balans in de handel met China maar naar een nieuwe balans in eigen mentaliteit. Dat zegt het Chinese ministerie van buitenlandse zaken. Het handelsministerie roept de EU op niet zo emotioneel te doen en zegt dat Europese onzekerheid en niet de Chinese productiecapaciteit excessief is. De boodschap van beide is een neerbuigende afwijzing van structurele Europese zorgen.
Sommigen twijfelden aan het stuk in SCMP over de Rusland-vriendelijke les geopolitiek die Wang Yi zou hebben gegeven aan Kallas. Maar – naast dat verschillende bronnen dit voorval bevestigden – was het consistent met de belerende toon die we nu publiekelijk zien.
Peking lijkt zijn geduld te verliezen met het feit dat het zwakkere Europa niet inbindt. Krijgt China gelijk? Gaan enkele lidstaten en Duitse industriëlen een serieuze Europese reactie op Pekings provocaties verhinderen? Of wordt dit een van die fameuze crises waarin de EU haar capaciteit tot handelen vindt?
Ik beloofde nog terug te komen op de speculaties over Xi Jinping en de Politburo-vergadering. Onder Achtergrond staan drie analyses die wat mij betreft duidelijk maken waarom we niet teveel geloof moeten hechten aan al die claims dat Xi ondergraven wordt.
Als we de geschiedenis van de Chinese Communistische Partij bekijken, dan is er een duidelijk patroon wanneer leiders uit hun macht ontzet worden. De opvolger van Mao Zedong, Hua Guofeng, werd eerst langzaam geïsoleerd door de verwijdering van loyalisten en het verlies van macht. Dat waren duidelijke signalen aan de partijkaders. Toen Deng Xiaoping hem uit zijn functie zette, was dat slechts het formele sluitstuk van een machtsval die al lang voltrokken was.
We zien niks van deze aard rondom Xi Jinping. In plaats daarvan zie ik de op de vorige vergadering van het Politburo aangenomen regelingen als onderdeel van de bredere campagne van Xi Jinping om het versterken van centrale partijcontrole vast te leggen in ‘wetten’. Hiermee stelt hij zijn erfenis veilig en kan hij met gerust hart meer zaken delegeren.
Toen ik bovenstaande analyse deelde, kreeg ik kritiek van een ervaren China-kenner. De val van hoge officieren Miao Hua en He Weidong zou een teken van verzwakking van Xi Jinping kunnen zijn. Voor mij is dat echter niet substantieel genoeg. Echte assistenten van Xi, zoals Cai Qi en Ding Xuexiang, zijn nog zo prominent als altijd.
In zijn podcast ontleedde Bill Bishop uitvoerig alle loze geruchten over Xi. Hij merkte ook op, beelden deden schijnen dat, tijdens de recente studiesessie van het Politburo over partijdiscipline, Xi Jinping sprak over corruptie in het Volksbevrijdingsleger. Dat strookt niet met het verhaal waarin zijn machtsbasis slachtoffer zou zijn van de val van Miao en He.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
The EU-China summit will lack deliverables. Xi may not attend. So why even go? – POLITICO Europe: ‘the two sides don’t plan to issue a joint statement […] The EU and China are instead looking at publishing a mere press release, two EU officials said, just like they did in 2023.’ 🇪🇺
China’s foreign ministry urges EU to pursue more positive and pragmatic policy toward China – Xinhua: ‘“China hopes the EU will realize that what needs rebalancing is its own mindset, not the China-EU economic and trade relations,” Mao said.’ 🇪🇺
‘The current state of China-EU trade is a result of the combined forces of the macroeconomic environment, intl trade conditions and our respective industrial structure. The laws of the market should be respected. What needs “rebalancing” is not🇨🇳🇪🇺economic ties, but EU’s mindset.’ – LI Jian @Europa_MFA_CHN, Twitter 🇪🇺China’s commerce ministry urges EU to view bilateral economic and trade ties in non-emotional and unprejudiced manner – Xinhua: ‘What is excessive is not China’s production capacity, but rather the EU’s anxiety stemming from insufficient long-term R&D investment and declining industrial competitiveness, said the spokesperson.’ 🇪🇺
新华时评丨中欧携手，做世界“稳定之锚” – 新华网
Ik zeg het al weken: Peking is van mening, dat de ontwikkelingen laten zien dat Brussel de gang naar Canossa moet maken – niet dat China toezeggingen moet doen aan de EU.
EU summons Chinese ambassador over laser incident involving German aircraft during an EU security mission in the Red Sea – Reuters 🇪🇺🇩🇪
Blendaktion gegen deutsches Aufklärungsflugzeug: Was über Chinas Laserangriff bekannt ist – Der Spiegel: „Nach SPIEGEL-Informationen ist der Zwischenfall über dem Roten Meer nicht das erste Mal, dass China sich aggressiv gegenüber der Bundeswehr gezeigt hat. Bereits beim Transit der Fregatte »Baden-Württemberg« im Herbst 2024 durch die Straße von Taiwan gab es gleich mehrere derartige Störmanöver, bei der die Fregatte durch Laser geblendet wurde.“
„Damals wurden die Aktionen zwar nach Berlin gemeldet, die Bundesregierung unter Kanzler Olaf Scholz (SPD) protestierte aber nicht öffentlich oder machte Peking Vorwürfe.“ 🇩🇪🇪🇺
Volgens Der Spiegel is het Duitse fregat Baden-Württemberg in najaar 2024 ook al met lasers lastiggevallen dor China, toen het door de Straat van Taiwan voer. De regering van Scholz besloot echter niks te doen of te zeggen.
China’s foreign ministry says German plane laser claim ‘inconsistent with facts’ – AFP 🇩🇪🇪🇺
Chinese Vice Premier Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 meets BASF CEO Markus Kamieth – Xinhua: ‘noted that despite a volatile external environment, China’s economy has demonstrated strong resilience and growth potential, with its super-sized market offering vast opportunities for foreign enterprises to develop in the country.’ 🇩🇪
Four Chinese nationals held for photographing Rafale jets at Greek airbase – Hindustan Times 🇬🇷
El Gobierno paga 12 millones a la china Huawei 华为 por custodiar las escuchas policiales – el Liberal 🇪🇸
De Spaanse overheid zou €12m betalen aan Huawei voor de opslag van telefoontaps van de politie.
Malta’s Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Ian Borg to visit China – Xinhua 🇲🇹
Ukraine detains Chinese spies tasked with stealing Neptune missile technology, SBU says – The Kyiv Independent: ‘According to the SBU, the two individuals, a 24-year-old former student of a Kyiv technical university and his father, were gathering secret documentation with the intent to illegally transfer it to Chinese intelligence.’ 🇺🇦
Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung 林佳龍 (DPP) hails Lithuania relations as delegation visits – Taipei Times: ‘Taipei is willing to work with the Lithuanian government on developing self-defense capabilities, supply chain resiliency, and cooperation in arms, drones and artificial intelligence industries, he said.’ 🇱🇹
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📉💥
EU boosts China de-risking efforts with plans to regain control of key sectors – SCMP: ‘On Wednesday the bloc unveiled three separate proposals – an action plan for the chemicals industry, a medical countermeasures strategy and a stockpiling strategy’ 🇪🇺
China’s rare earth export curbs spark EU concerns ahead of Beijing summit – SCMP: ‘Renew Europe has called on the EU to diversify its sources, warning that the continent’s reliance on Chinese rare earths leaves it vulnerable to “blackmail”.’ 🇪🇺
EU lawmakers rebuke China over rare earth curbs before summit – Reuters 🇪🇺
China combats strategic mineral smuggling while ensuring legitimate exports, commerce ministry says – Xinhua: ‘To firmly prevent illegal outflows, in May this year, China launched a special operation targeting the smuggling of strategic minerals’
How US buyers of critical minerals bypass China’s export ban – Reuters: ‘trade data illustrate a re-routing of U.S. shipments via third countries – an issue Chinese officials have acknowledged.’ 🇺🇸
Heffingen en beperkingen omzeilen via derde landen werkt dus ook de andere richting uit.
Renault unit Ampere launches EV industry investment fund with Chinese partners – Reuters 🇫🇷
China’s car production and sales reach new highs in June amid subsidies and record exports – Yicai Global: ‘Passenger car output rose more than 13 percent to 2.41 million units last month from a year earlier’
China auto sales grow 11.4% on higher exports and demand for EVs – Nikkei Asia: ‘Sales of new energy vehicles (NEV), which include all-electric and hybrid models, jumped 40.3%, offsetting the decline in internal combustion engine cars.’
‘The rapid growth of the NEV sector has significantly eroded the market share of foreign automakers. Chinese brands made up nearly 70% of the passenger vehicle market in June, up from just 36% in 2020.’
VS-China 🇨🇳
China and US maintain close economic and trade communication at multiple levels, commerce ministry says – Xinhua 🇺🇸
Chinese vice premier Dīng Xuēxiáng 丁薛祥 meets former US treasury secretary Henry Paulson – Xinhua 🇺🇸
Pentagon strikes direct investment deal with US critical minerals producer MP Materials – FT
VS-wereld 🌏
Chinese Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 called on Southeast Asian nations to uphold openness and cooperation, delivering a message of inclusivity as Trump threatens sweeping tariffs across the region – Bloomberg: ‘The two blocs should “strengthen the revitalization of Asia amid the historical trend that the Global South is showing a remarkable growth,” Wang added.’
No bumps in Taiwan’s trade talks with US, source says – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
Techoorlog 💽💥
Xi Focus: Traditional industries bloom anew in China’s modernisation push – Xinhua: ‘Spearheaded by President Xi Jinping, this drive is injecting fresh vitality into traditional sectors that underpin the country’s modern industrial base.’
Ontwikkelingslanden moeten de hoop opgeven dat China de ‘laagwaardige’ industrieën opgeeft, zoals Japan wel deed.
Quantumcomputers komen eraan en Nederland is voorbereid – Rijksoverheid 🇳🇱
Czech government bans DeepSeek 深度求索 usage in public administration – Reuters 🇨🇿
Irish regulator opens fresh privacy probe on ByteDance 字节跳动’s TikTok after user data was stored in China – Euractiv 🇮🇪🇪🇺
Exclusive: ByteDance 字节跳动’s TikTok prepares US app with its own algorithm and user data – Reuters: ‘The initiative, known internally as “M2", has a September deadline’ 🇺🇸
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang 黃仁勳 plans Beijing trip ahead of new China AI chip launch – FT: ‘The chip is a version of Nvidia’s existing Blackwell RTX Pro 6000 processor modified to meet US President Donald Trump’s tightened export control rules’ 🇺🇸
China’s NDRC has set targets for more industries to boost their use of green power, in an effort to increase the consumption of renewable energy as solar and wind capacity surges – Bloomberg: ‘Manufacturers in the steel, cement and polysilicon sectors will be required to use green power to meet between 25% and 70% of their demand for the 2025 and 2026 calendar years’
Chinese vice premier Liú Guózhōng 刘国中 calls for agricultural innovation and technological self-reliance – Xinhua: ‘He urged the steadfast advancement of agricultural modernization and the development of new quality productive forces in the sector in light of local conditions.’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Rutte houdt vol: gevaar simultane aanval China en Rusland groeit – ANP 🇷🇺
Taiwan’s foreign ministry welcomes remarks by NATO’s Rutte – Taipei Times
The 19th century is a terrible guide to modern statecraft – The Economist’s The Telegram: ‘A world carved up between Presidents Trump, Xi and Putin would be unstable and unsafe’
Japan opens Osprey base on Kyushu as China ramps up military presence – Kyodo News: ‘The relocation of the Ospreys reflects Tokyo’s recent focus on bolstering deterrence and response capabilities in the southwestern Nansei island chain, a strategically vital area due to its proximity to the potential geopolitical flashpoint of Taiwan.’ 🇯🇵
Global Civilisations Dialogue Ministerial Meeting opens in Beijing – Xinhua: ‘Themed “Safeguarding Diversity of Human Civilizations for World Peace and Development,” the two-day event has attracted over 600 guests from 140 countries and regions.’
Senior CCP official Cài Qí 蔡奇 highlights global civilisations dialogue and cooperation at Beijing conference – Xinhua: ‘Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the meeting, which was read out at the opening ceremony by Li Shulei’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 calls for global dialogue and cooperation network among civilisations – Xinhua
Xinhua Commentary: Wisdom of Confucianism valued in a turbulent world – Xinhua
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Don’t get stewed up about Xi Jinping – Charles Parton for Observing China: ‘The fall of a leader in the PRC is usually preceded by the arrest or taking down of close subordinates.’ ‘In the CCP’s brutal world of claw and tooth, the idea that Xi is under house arrest or being allowed to continue while a successor is found is altogether too genteel.’
‘Containing Xi’, or refining party rule? – Holly Snape for Observing China: ‘These planned regulations are part of Xi’s longstanding pet project to govern the CCP and the PRC by rules’ ‘Xi has used rules not only to maximise his concentration of power, but also to facilitate its use.’
Visualising power in China’s – China Media Project: ‘We do not see a meaningful shift in party-state messaging on Xi or other members of the top leadership, or other potential rivals out of left field.’
There’s been a shift in US-China tech competition – and it’s not good news for the rest of the world – Rebecca Arcesati and Antonia Hmaidi for MERICS: ‘The Trump administration’s flip-flopping on AI proliferation and China’s new willingness to counter Washington’s extra-territorial rule-making with extra-territorial rule-making of its own leaves other countries and the companies of the world, especially those doing business in the US and China, in a tough spot.’
Trump’s trade deals try a creative way to hobble China – The Economist
Southeast Asia is starting to choose: Why the region is leaning toward China – Yuen Foong Khong and Joseph Chinyong Liow for Foreign Affairs
Standardisation with Chinese Characteristics? – Clingendael: ‘Europe must see standardisation not as a niche technical field, but as a key site of geopolitical contestation and opportunity’
Mapping Two Decades of China’s Industrial Policies –
Chinees bloed, Filippijns hart: de Tsinoy in de Filippijnen voelen de internationale spanningen – NRC
我們該怕誰──直播、街拍、間諜？從國安疑雲到群眾焦慮的台灣當代現場 – 報導者
Podcasts
09-07: De spanningen tussen Taiwan en China lopen op – Sense Hofstede bij NPO Radio 1 BNNVARA Vroeg! 🍎
Ik mocht op de Nederlandse radio een uur lang praten over de militaire Han Kuang-oefeningen die afgelopen woensdag begonnen.
Kurt Campbell on China Strategy and Diplomacy – CSIS Pekingology 🍎
Interessante observaties over Yang Jiechi en zijn ‘wariness and weariness’ op het einde van zijn carrière.
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China denies giving Iran air defence systems after conflict with Israel – SCMP: ‘Citing an Arab official familiar with the intelligence, the British-based platform Middle East Eye reported on Monday that Chinese air defence equipment had been sent to Iran after it struck a truce with Israel last month.’ 🇮🇷
China’s foreign ministry decries ‘discriminatory’ ban on Chinese purchases of US farmland – AFP 🇺🇸
Trump said he threatened to bomb Moscow if Putin attacked Ukraine, 2024 fundraiser tapes show – CNN: ‘Trump later claimed he relayed a similar warning to Chinese President Xi Jinping over a potential invasion of Taiwan, telling him that the US would bomb Beijing in response.’ 🇺🇸🇹🇼
Chinese research vessels survey seabeds where naval rivals may one day clash – The New York Times: ‘Some ships edged close to Taiwan’s 12-nautical-mile territorial sea boundary, but did not appear to cross the line’
‘Starting early last year, Chinese ships began surveying the seas near Guam’ 🇺🇸🇹🇼
Tencent 腾讯 attempts to silence FreeWeChat in trademark smokescreen attack – GreatFire: ‘We believe FreeWeChat’s growing influence, and its ability to show deleted or blocked posts on politically sensitive topics, has made it an urgent target.’
Malaysia says China will sign Southeast Asia nuclear weapons free zone treaty when documents are ready – Reuters 🇲🇾
Chinese fighter jet flies close to Japan SDF plane, sources say – Kyodo News: ‘over international waters in the East China Sea’ ‘followed a similar incident over international waters in the Pacific last month’ 🇯🇵
Chinese government ships enter Japan’s territorial waters off Senkaku/Diaoyutai Islands – NHK World: ‘The JCG says the vessels tried to approach a Japanese fishing boat that was operating in the area.’ 🇯🇵
China’s top legislator Zhào Lèjì 赵乐际 meets deputy speaker of ROK National Assembly – Xinhua 🇰🇷
China and Egypt should consistently facilitate two-way trade, investment, Chinese premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 says – Xinhua 🇪🇬
China voices support for Arab nations’ unity and development, premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 says – Xinhua: ‘meeting with Arab League (AL) Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul-Gheit’
Chinese and Pakistani air chiefs seek military synergy on training and tech fronts – SCMP 🇵🇰
China’s MSS says foiled foreign spying plots including ‘honeytrap’ – AFP: ‘said Thursday that foreign spooks “have been increasingly active in infiltrating and stealing secrets from China” and were targeting public officials.’
Chinese nationals in Africa ‘vulnerable to kidnappings’ as cases rise – SCMP
China economie
China producer price deflation deepens as trade war bites – FT: ‘Producer price inflation fell 3.6 per cent year on year in June, […] Consumer prices rose 0.1 per cent’
China’s key construction machinery sales jumped in the first half, indicating improving demand across the economically crucial sector – Bloomberg
Chinese property stocks jump on unverified reports of state aid – Bloomberg: ‘unverified social media reports of a possible high-level meeting that would be reminiscent of the Central Urban Work Conference held in 2015’
In Depth: China’s polysilicon majors plan to bail out rest of glut-stricken industry – Caixin Global: ‘proposed joint entity’
China’s NDRC pledges building of megaprojects despite pivot to domestic consumption – SCMP: ‘“To further drive economic development and improve people’s livelihoods, it is essential to maintain a certain scale of investment,” said Li Chunlin’
Chinese authorities offer one-off subsidy to those hiring unemployed young people – SCMP
China admits drought impact; proclaims bumper wheat harvest – Dim Sums
China binnenland
China’s top legislator Zhào Lèjì 赵乐际 stresses high-quality legislative work – Xinhua
China is building 74% of all current solar and wind projects, report says – FT: ‘It is continuing to develop new coal-fired power plants.’
China’s coal heartland fighting for a greener future – The Guardian
Electric vehicle battery suppliers, including BYD 比亚迪 and EVE Energy 亿纬锂能, need to step up efforts to switch to clean power at manufacturing sites, says environmental group Greenpeace – Bloomberg
China’s top political advisor Wáng Hùníng 王沪宁 urges sustained pairing assistance to Xinjiang – Xinhua: ‘Greater focus should be placed on addressing prominent problems in southern Xinjiang and on consolidating and expanding the gains made in poverty alleviation in the region, Wang noted.’
Hong Kong
Members of Hong Kong independence group arrested, charges include flag-raising ceremony in Taipei – New Bloom
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
China placed eight Taiwanese suppliers of military equipment on an export control list – Bloomberg 🇨🇳
Farewell, 1945 Republic of China – Chiang Huang-chih for Taipei Times: ‘From an international law perspective, this [welcome speech by foreign minister Lin Chia-lung] represents a significant doctrinal shift whereby the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clearly departed from the “one China” discourse, formally ascertaining an independent Taiwan sovereignty as distinct from China.’
Taiwan becomes first foreign nation to fund medical project in Judea and Samaria [= Israel-occupied Palestine’s West Bank] – World Israel News 🇮🇱🇵🇸
Taiwan’s Overseas Community Affairs Council to expand Mandarin learning centres abroad – Taipei Times: ‘by establishing centers in Australia, Canada, Japan and New Zealand.’
Taiwan start grootste militaire oefening ooit: „Het wil laten zien dat het voorbereid is op een Chinese invasie” – de Volkskrant
Han Kuang military exercises begin – Taipei Times: ‘The exercises this year will for the first time feature new High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) made by Lockheed Martin along with Taiwan-developed Tien Chien II’
Air-raid shelters must open to public during alerts, interior ministry says – Taipei Times
Tainan and Chiayi cancel urban resilience drill for typhoon recovery – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s military exercise will only jeopardise well-being of its residents, Chinese spokesperson says – Xinhua: ‘Regardless of how many “drills” the DPP authorities carry out, they cannot alter the inevitable failure of “Taiwan independence,” nor can they stand in the way of the historical trend of national reunification, the spokesperson said.’
Taiwan conducts M1A2T tank live-fire drill – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Taiwan’s KMT defends ‘One China’ stance as no-confidence votes approach – Nikkei Asia: ‘Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia said the party would stand by its core position that Taiwan is part of a broader Chinese polity.’
‘KMT official Tony Lin called the no-confidence votes a “threat” to Taiwan’s democratic system. “We’re against Lai Ching-te’s dictatorship,” he said.’
De verzwakte KMT mobiliseert de harde kern, waardoor het alleen maar verder verzwakt.
Civil groups to protest KMT and TPP legislators – Taipei Times
KMT expected to hinder special budget – Taipei Times: ‘aiming to request an additional NT$230 billion be allocated for universal NT$10,000 cash handouts’
No plan to greenlight aid for Taipower, KMT Chair Eric Chu says – Focus Taiwan