De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 11 april: geen pauze in wereldhandelsoorlog, Kyiv, He Weidong
De wereldhandelsapocalyps is voor in ieder geval negentig dagen afgezwakt. Trump heeft zich iets teruggetrokken. ‘Veel landen’ (75?) hebben voorlopig alleen ‘maar’ de basisheffing van 10%. De heffing van China gaat wel omhoog en heeft nu een astronomisch totaal van 145% bereikt. Er is geen ‘pauze’. Tien procent is veel. De klappen die Washington en Peking (vergelding is nu 84%) aan elkaar uitdelen betekenen op termijn het einde van de meeste directe handel.
Wat is er straks nog over van de relatie tussen de twee landen? De breuk tussen de Verenigde Staten en China is van koudoorlogse proporties. We gaan een gevaarlijke periode tegemoet. Men gaf vaak twee redenen waarom een vergelijking met de Koude Oorlog mank ging: geen ideologische strijd zoals die tussen communisme en kapitalisme en diepgaande economische integratie, wat ontbrak tussen Sovjetunie en Verenigde Staten.
Chinees en Amerikaans nationalisme is geen wedstrijd die de wereld meekrijgt. Pekings appèl aan het Mondiale Zuiden als verdediger van het recht op ontwikkeling tegen Amerikaans hegemonisme zou wat tractie kunnen krijgen – we onderschatten mondiaal anti-Westers sentiment op ons eigen risico. Maar de economische desintegratie is een grotere bron van instabiliteit.
Washington en Peking zijn al geruimde tijd in een systemische rivaliteit verwikkeld. Wat de boel nog een beetje onder controle hield, was het gigantische economische belang aan beide kanten. Men sprak niet voor niets over ‘Chimerica’. Dat was al aan het ontrafelen. Met de nieuwe gigantische importheffingen aan beide kanten gaat het mes erin.
Het einde van deze economische integratie én de atmosfeer van nationalisme is risicovol. De Verenigde Staten hebben een bestuur van kwestieuze kwaliteit en met een beperkte grip op de realiteit. Peking lijkt ondertussen te zien dat het moment van epochale omwenteling nu versneld wordt. Juist op dat moment gaan de economische remmingen eraf.
Zoals ik eerder schreef: in de oorspronkelijke Koude Oorlog was een heet gevecht om Europa ondenkbaar vanwege de nucleaire consequenties, dus uitte de rivaliteit zich in proxoorlogen elders. Nu zou het risico op een wereldoorlog strijd om Taiwan haast ondenkbaar maken, terwijl er in Europa al een oorlog woedt met Aziatische betrokkenen…
Kyiv zegt dat er meer dan 160 Chinese huurlingen zouden vechten aan Russische kant. President Zelensky beschuldigt Peking ervan af te weten, dan reclame voor rekrutering plaatsvindt op Chinese sociale media. Peking waarschuwt Oekraïne voor ‘onverantwoordelijke’ uitingen.
Wat misschien meer bepalend is voor het soort geluiden dat we vaker kunnen gaan horen, is een bericht in de WSJ dat ik onder Kantelpunt geplaatst hebt. Volgens bronnen zouden Chinese functionarissen bij gesprekken met Amerikaanse tegenhangers afgelopen december – dus nog onder Biden – de Volt Typhoon hacks van Amerikaanse kritieke infrastructuur niet zoals gebruikelijk ontkend hebben. In plaats daarvan linkten ze het expliciet aan Amerikaanse steun voor Taiwan…
Chinese binnenlandse uitdagingen blijven bestaan. Naast Pekings dappere gezicht lees je op rapportages over fabrieken die nu al te kampen hebben met teruglopende orders, terwijl schepen de oceaan over racen om heffingen voor te zijn. Politiek zijn er ook bijzonderheden.
Financial Times schrijft nu dat een van de hoogste Chinese militairen, He Weidong, inderdaad uit zijn functie ontheven is. Dat één van de enige twee geüniformeerde leden van het Politburo door corruptieonderzoek in de problemen komt is uniek. Volgens een expert in het FT was de laatste keer dat een zittende vicevoorzitter van de Centrale Militaire Commissie werd verwijderd in 1967.
Volgende week ben ik 16 t/m 22 april in Brussel. Het reisje is niet in het kader van mijn nog voortdurende zoektocht naar een vaste baan, maar om bij te praten met mensen. Wanneer iemand zin heeft in een kopje koffie, dan hou ik me aanbevolen!
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
IPAC deelt op Twitter dat Derk Boswijk (CDA) is toegetreden, net als Fiji. Er was een tweeminutendebat over China in de Tweede Kamer, met o.a. een hoop moties over bijv. regeringsbezoek aan Taiwan, de naam van Oost-Turkestan, de opvolging van de Dalai Lama, enz. 🇳🇱
Gevangen Chinese strijders in Oekraïne zijn waarschijnlijk huurlingen – NRC: „Een woordvoerder van het Chinese ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken zei woensdag op een persconferentie dat Chinese burgers ,moeten vermijden deel te nemen aan militaire operaties van welke partij dan ook’.” 🇺🇦
Over 160 Chinese nationals fight for Russia in Ukraine, obtained documents show – The Kyiv Independent: ‘“Beijing knows about this. Russians distribute advertising videos about recruitment through Chinese social networks,” Zelensky said.’ 🇺🇦
China’s foreign ministry warns against ‘irresponsible’ remarks after Kyiv claim on Chinese fighters – Reuters 🇺🇦
Brief regering: Reactie op het bericht ‘Two Chinese soldiers captured during fighting in eastern Ukraine, Zelenskyy says’ – Minister Veldkamp, Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal: „Het kabinet acht de berichten over de betrokkenheid van Chinese soldaten in de Russische oorlog tegen Oekraïne zorgelijk, en neemt deze serieus. Op dit moment is onvoldoende informatie beschikbaar om conclusies te trekken.” 🇳🇱
EU leaders plan trip to Beijing in July for summit with Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 – SCMP: ‘The plan suggests a second successive EU-China summit would be held in the Chinese capital, despite the fact that the location is supposed to rotate. However, with Xi reluctant to make the trip to Brussels, it is understood that European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have accepted they must travel to Beijing if they want face time with the Chinese leader.’ 🇪🇺
China and EU trade chiefs vow joint efforts to uphold multilateral trading system – Xinhua: ‘According to the statement, the two sides agreed to start consultation on issues concerning market access at an early date, and immediately start negotiations on electric vehicle pricing commitments as well as issues related to bilateral investment cooperation in the auto sector.
Both sides support the resumption of China-EU trade remedy dialogue mechanism to discuss trade diversion issues and properly manage trade frictions, according to the statement.’ 🇪🇺
EU and China will look into setting minimum prices on electric vehicles, EU Commission says – Reuters: ‘German newspaper Handelsblatt reported earlier on Thursday that negotiations had begun.’ 🇪🇺
Huawei top executive in Europe charged in Belgian corruption probe – POLITICO Europe: ‘The senior executive is listed as a vice president for the Europe region at Huawei and previously held a position as chief representative to the European Union leading the firm’s public affairs office in Brussels. He can only be identified as Yong J.’
‘Aside from Yong J., three other Huawei employees were among the suspects […], including a lobbyist and a senior executive for the firm, who can only be described as Valerio O. and Han W.’ 🇪🇺🇧🇪
Swedish prosecutor seeks detention of man suspected of spying on Uyghurs for China – Reuters 🇸🇪
De Spaanse premier bezoekt Peking en daar is Washington niet blij mee – FD 🇪🇸
UK trade minister visits China at same time as head of British military – The Guardian: ‘Alexander’s trip, which does not appear to have been publicised anywhere by the UK or Chinese governments, coincided with an unannounced visit to China by Adm Sir Tony Radakin, the head of the British military, for the first time in a decade.’
‘Radakin is reported to have given a speech to students at the People’s Liberation Army National Defence University’ 🇬🇧
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📉💥
VS verhoogt importtarieven voor China [met] 125 procent [tot 145 procent], voor 75 landen is er een ‘tarievenpauze’ [voor 90 dagen op 10 procent] – VRT NWS 🇺🇸
In al het geweld vergeet je haast dat 10% nog altijd substantieel is.
De markt heeft de eerste slag met het Witte Huis gewonnen, nu eerste beleggers hun vertrouwen in de Amerikaanse kredietwaardigheid verliezen – NRC 🇺🇸
Trumps gedrag op sociale media roept vragen op over marktmanipulatie – FD 🇺🇸
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he envisions reaching trade agreements with US allies that would then lay the ground for a collective approach toward Beijing to address what he described as China’s unbalanced trade structure – Bloomberg: ‘Bessent also warned the European Union against seeking to pivot instead toward China and away from the US, singling out an apparent endorsement of that tack in Spain.’ 🇺🇸
Veel succes.
EU schort importheffingen voor VS op, zet voorlopig in op onderhandelingen – de Volkskrant 🇪🇺
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said the US decision to pause a round of global tariffs can serve as a way to open ‘a door to negotiation’ and therefore could lead to an agreement – Bloomberg 🇪🇺
De havens in de VS staan in de frontlinie van de handelsoorlog en stromen inmiddels al vol – NRC 🇺🇸
Chinese exporters said to be ditching shipments mid-voyage to avoid crushing Trump tariffs – SCMP 🇺🇸
Has Trump cancelled Christmas? China’s decorations makers report no US orders – Reuters 🇺🇸
Inside factories in China, a struggle to survive Trump’s tariffs – The New York Times: ‘China already faced a huge glut of factory capacity even before Mr. Trump began closing the American market this year to many imports from China. Customers elsewhere have demanded ever deeper discounts.’ 🇺🇸
WTO says trade between US and China could decrease by as much as 80% – Reuters: ‘Dividing the global economy into two blocs in this way could lead to a long-term reduction in global real GDP by nearly 7%, the statement added.’ 🇺🇸
1.600 banen weg bij Tata Steel. Het personeel zag het wel aankomen – NRC: „De prijzen van staal staan onder druk als gevolg van een zwakke auto-industrie en de goedkope import van staal uit China. Hoge energiekosten stuwen de prijzen verder op, aldus het bedrijf in een verklaring. Tata Steel vreest daarnaast de gevolgen van de importheffingen die de Amerikaanse president Donald Trump vorige maand invoerde.” 🇳🇱
European Parliament takes aim at surge in sales of cheap Chinese goods – Euractiv 🇪🇺
VS-China 🇨🇳
China’s commerce ministry raises tariffs on US goods to 84% – Bloomberg: ‘effective April 10’ 🇺🇸
China adds 12 US entities to export control list – Xinhua 🇺🇸
China slaat terug: minder films uit de VS – NRC 🇺🇸
China has firm will and abundant means to take countermeasures if US further escalates restrictive measures, commerce ministry says – Xinhua 🇺🇸
China not to flinch when trade and tariff war comes, foreign ministry spokesperson says – Xinhua 🇺🇸
China’s State Council Information Office releases white paper on China-US economic and trade relations – Xinhua 🇺🇸
„China kan op een hele nare manier terugslaan” – BNR 🇺🇸
China prepared to ‘strike back’, state media says through Yuyuan Tantian social media page as new tariffs kick in – SCMP: ‘China is still willing to discuss the matter with US President Donald Trump, but “definitely not in the way (the US is doing),”’ 🇺🇸
‘Here’s a story summarising the Yuyun Tantian post, which has been disseminated to foreign journalists by staff at China Media Group, the state organ that owns the channel. Clearly messaging they want to get out there […]’ – Finbarr Bermingham, Bluesky 🇺🇸
“【#对美二十多项反制合理合情合法#】#美国妄图对各国各个击破# 〔……〕” – 玉渊谭天， 微博：“关税战就是发展之战。发展是世界各国的普遍权利，而不是美国的专利。我们要做的，是捍卫我们的发展权利，是捍卫我们的经济继续企稳向好。” 🇺🇸
„De heffingenoorlog is een oorlog van ontwikkeling. Ontwikkeling is een universeel recht van alle landen ter wereld, niet het alleenrecht van de Verenigde Staten. Wat we moeten doen, is ons recht op ontwikkeling verdedigen en de voorzetting van de stabilisatie en verbetering van onze economie verdedigen.”
中美经贸关系互利共赢的本质不容歪曲（钟声） – 《人民日报》（2025年04月10日 第03版）
Commentaar in het Volksdagblad van donderdag onder gezaghebbende pennaam ‘Zhong Sheng’. Schrijft over de win-win aard van handel tussen China en de VS; benadrukt hoeveel landbouwproducten en technologie Amerika naar China exporteert, hoeveel banen dit creëert in de VS en hoeveel omzet Amerikaanse bedrijven boeken in China; iets om in het achterhoofd te houden bij het afsluitende punt dat Peking tegenmaatregelen neemt wanneer Chinese belangen geschaad worden.
VS–Taiwan 🇹🇼
Taiwan prepared for ‘direct’ and ‘effective’ tariff talks with US, Premier Cho says – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇸
Taiwan has a roadmap for deeper US trade ties – President Lai Ching-te for Bloomberg 🇺🇸
Tariffs could slash Taiwan’s GDP growth by up to 1.61 percentage points, National Development Council minister says – Focus Taiwan: ‘According to a Bloomberg report, model projections estimate that a 32 percent U.S. tariff on Taiwanese exports could slash Taiwan's shipments to the U.S. by around 63 percent, potentially leading to a 3.8 percent GDP contraction.’ 🇺🇸
VS–wereld 🌏
Asean will not retaliate against US tariffs, say its economic ministers – The Straits Times: ‘The 10-nation group emphasised its commitment to pursue a “frank and constructive dialogue” with Washington’
China and Malaysia commerce ministers discuss economic cooperation and joint response [sic] to US tariff hikes – Xinhua 🇲🇾
Thailand’s tariff talks with the Trump administration will factor in the impact of the high taxes slapped on China as local producers fret over the risk of an increase in the influx of cheap imports from the Asian neighbour – Bloomberg 🇹🇭
SCO members urged to uphold multilateral trading system with WTO at core – Xinhua
Techoorlog 💽💥
Brussels AI-strijdplan moet van Europa een wereldleider maken én de VS pleasen – NRC 🇪🇺
China’s commerce ministry says any TikTok deal has to comply with Chinese law – Reuters 🇺🇸
Trump administration backs off Nvidia’s ‘H20’ chip crackdown after Mar-a-Lago dinner attended by CEO Jensen Huang – NPR: ‘The planned American export controls on the H20 had been in the works for months, according to the two sources, and were ready to be implemented as soon as this week.’ 🇺🇸
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan invested in hundreds of Chinese companies, some with military ties – Reuters 🇺🇸🇸🇬
Chip war: Samsung 三星 denies halting foundry services for Chinese clients amid US pressure – SCMP 🇰🇷
China’s energy storage industry is facing twin shocks from punitive US tariffs and scaled-back support from the government in its domestic market – Bloomberg: ‘At home, meanwhile, clean energy is shifting to market-based pricing from June 1.’
Taiwan’s Foxconn 鴻海 hopes to work with Nissan 日産 and others on EV production – Nikkei Asia 🇯🇵
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
In secret meeting, Chinese officials acknowledged Beijing’s role in US infrastructure hacks – WSJ: ‘During the half-day meeting in Geneva [last December], Wang Lei, a top cyber official with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, indicated that the infrastructure hacks resulted from the U.S.’s military backing of Taiwan’ 🇺🇸
China to strengthen ties with neighbours: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s first comments since trade war escalates – SCMP: ‘delivered at a two-day high-profile central working conference on neighbourhood diplomacy’ ‘the first dedicated session held by China’s top leadership on neighbourhood diplomacy since 2013.’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 calls for building community with shared future with neighbouring countries – Xinhua: ‘The conference called for viewing neighboring regions through a global perspective and strengthening the sense of responsibility and mission in advancing China’s neighborhood work.’
Belangrijker dan de context van de handelsoorlog. Zulke zeldzame conferenties worden goed voorbereid en dienen als voltooing van een beleidsproces dat verandering inluidt.
携手周边国家共创美好未来（和音） – 《人民日报》（2025年04月10日 第03版）
Commentaar in Volksdagblad onder pennaam ‘He Yin’ (Geluid van Harmonie/Vrede) hierover legt nadruk op gezamenlijke ontwikkeling (gericht op China, in de praktijk) en gedeelde Aziatische waarden, Aziatische kracht, Aziatische visie op veiligheid, Aziatische dialoog van beschavingen.
Beijing ups diplomatic pressure on Africa as the US pulls back – AP: ‘Chinese diplomats threatened to cancel a summit and called top officials in two African countries to pressure lawmakers to quit an international parliamentary group critical of China’
‘lawmakers from Malawi and Gambia withdrew from the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, or IPAC’ 🇲🇼🇬🇲
US commanders worry Yemen campaign will drain arms needed to deter China – The New York Times: ‘concerned that the Pentagon will soon need to move long-range precision weapons from stockpiles in the Asia-Pacific region to the Middle East’
‘If Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites in the coming months and ignites a wider Middle East war, the Trump administration would almost certainly commit more U.S. military resources to the region.’ 🇺🇸
Nieuwe voorraad produceren is ook lastiger, wanneer de economie aan gort gaat terwijl alle benodigdheden vastzitten achter heffingsmuren.
US military seeks to boost joint operations training in Pacific as China’s strength grows – SCMP 🇺🇸
Japanese defence ministry says Japan wants to join a NATO command in Germany for the support of Ukraine – AP 🇯🇵
Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba and NATO Secretary General Rutte agree to boost security cooperation during talks in Tokyo – The Yomiuri Shimbun 🇯🇵
Weekend 🏖️📚
Longreads en achtergrond
Why Beijing thinks it can beat Trump: China’s elites have a new confidence in their own system – Scott Kennedy in Foreign Policy
Five Chinese experts react to Trump’s tariff war –
The US$115 trillion global economy must now contend with twin shocks from Trump’s tariffs and China – Bloomberg: ‘While the breadth and scope of Trump’s tariffs pose greater risks to the global economy than Chinese oversupply, the combination of those dynamics will weigh on economies caught in the middle’
CCP youth work, settler colonialism, and ethnic assimilation – Collective Study (Issue 03)
Taiwan’s youth are not defeatist — and the data proves it – Wen-Chin Wu and Hsin-Hsin Pan for The Diplomat
Podcasts
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China’s government issues 2 warnings about US travel for tourists and students, urging ‘caution’ – SCMP 🇺🇸
More than a dozen Chinese students across the US told the WSJ that their student visas were revoked this week – WSJ: ‘In some cases, students were told offenses such as traffic violations were the reason.’ 🇺🇸
US intelligence agency warns China is actively trying to recruit current and former government employees – Reuters 🇺🇸
US decouples from China in war on cancer, denying access to research databanks – SCMP 🇺🇸
Liberal candidate Peter Yuen, chosen to replace Paul Chiang, linked to pro-Beijing groups and events – The Globe and Mail 🇨🇦
PRC security threat and Taiwan Strait peace, highlighted in Japan’s annual diplomatic report – Focus Taiwan 🇯🇵
South Korea sanctions Chinese nationals, Hong Kong and Russian entities over North Korea shipments – Reuters 🇰🇷
Seventh undisturbed resupply mission to Second Thomas/Ayungin Shoal completed on Day of Valor – The Philippine Star 🇵🇭
Chinese military ready to work with Indian side for peace in border areas – Xinhua 🇮🇳
China economie
China’s deflationary pressures persist as trade gloom worsens – Reuters: ‘A nascent pick-up in retail sales and robust expansion in factory activity have been offset by rising unemployment and deflationary pressures, fuelling calls for more stimulus.’
Goldman Sachs cuts China GDP growth forecasts citing tariff impact – Reuters: ‘lowered its forecasts for China’s GDP growth to 4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 in a report published on Thursday, from 4.5% and 4.0% previously’
Chinese premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 chairs meeting with economic experts and entrepreneurs – Xinhua: ‘It is necessary to implement more proactive macro policies and introduce new incremental policies in a timely manner in light of the needs of the situation, he said’
Beursgangen in China blijven een feestje, ook in een beroerde week – FD
China’s central bank asks state lenders to reduce dollar purchases, sources say – Reuters: ‘The directive from authorities comes as the yuan faces heavy downward pressure following massive U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports and retaliatory moves by Beijing.’
China’s central bank signalled its tolerance for yuan weakness yet again, after the currency sank to a record low in offshore trading – Bloomberg: ‘guiding the yuan weaker at a carefully orchestrated pace, as the central bank seeks to blunt some of the economic impact’
Seminar held on China’s private sector development – Xinhua
In China, whispers of change as some companies tell staff to work less – Reuters
China binnenland
Top Chinese general Hé Wèidōng 何卫东 removed in latest Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 purge – FT: ‘was removed from his post in recent weeks, according to five people familiar with the matter.’ ‘the PLA’s second-ranked officer, He Weidong is third in command of the Chinese military and a member of the Communist party’s Politburo’
‘Three of the sources familiar with his ousting said it was related to alleged corruption.’
‘six months after Xi suspended Miao Hua, one of six top officers in the CMC’ ‘Xi has also purged two Chinese defence ministers, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu in the past two years.’
‘Neil Thomas, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said He Weidong’s purge would be the first of a uniformed vice-chair of the CMC since General He Long in 1967.’
China nursing home blaze kills 20; one arrested – Reuters
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
US Senate confirms ‘China hawk’ Elbridge Colby as defence policy chief – Focus Taiwan: ‘Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) reacted to Colby’s comments on March 12 when he said the government did “not have the capacity” to spend 10 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) annually on national defense.’ 🇺🇸
Taiwanese military couple gets more than 40 years in prison for spying for China – Taipei Times: ‘Sun and Liu were sentenced to 47 years and 57 years in prison respectively.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan government to raise Myanmar quake relief funds, hold prayer events – Focus Taiwan 🇲🇲
DPP officials and lawmakers call for calls on opposition to unfreeze foreign ministry budget to maintain foreign diplomatic ties – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
KMT calls on government to more than double tariff bailout budget – Focus Taiwan: ‘called a meeting of mayors and county commissioners from the 16 administrative regions held by the party’
Taiwan’s economic issues not limited to tariffs, KMT says – Taipei Times: ‘it also includes US pressure to increase defense spending, currency valuation and risks from holding too much US debt’
KMT proposal for free-trade zone on offshore islands may create a ‘back door’, DPP says – Taipei Times
10,000 Chinese spouses face loss of residency in Taiwan over missing proof – Focus Taiwan: ‘As of Wednesday, 676 individuals have had their "status as people of the Taiwan Area" revoked, according to Chen.’ 🇨🇳
Social media within scope of Chinese entry permit review, Mainland Affairs Council official says – Focus Taiwan: ‘The process is aimed at screening for “remarks belittling Taiwan,” Liang said, without specifying what such remarks entail.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council allows affidavits in lieu of deregistration proof for some Chinese spouses – Focus Taiwan: ‘can be applied to individuals who may face personal safety concerns when traveling to China’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan mulls incentives for high-level professionals and digital nomads – Focus Taiwan