De Chinese Wouden, vrijdag 1 november: verdeel en heers in autoland, Duitsland gaat door

Oct 31, 2024

Nu de Europese invoerheffingen op elektrische auto’s uit China van kracht zijn, zijn ook de eerste reacties binnen. Peking heeft zijn ontevredenheid laten blijken in woord en daad. Reuters en SCMP berichten over een klassiek staaltje verdeel-en-heerspolitiek: het handelsministerie zou ‘window guidance’ hebben uitgegeven, waarin het bedrijven uit de elektrische autoindustrie aanraadde om geen investeringen te doen in EU-lidstaten die vóór te heffingen hebben gestemd en juist wel in landen die tégen waren.

Dat betekent dat Duitsland misschien wel uit kan kijken naar een Chinese beloning voor Berlijns opzichtige pogingen om de Commissie te ondermijnen. Dat nieuws komt terwijl Rhodium een veelzeggende analyse heeft vrijgegeven over de investeringen de andere kant uit, van Europa naar China. Die zijn gestegen naar een nieuw kwartaalrecord, vooral dankzij Duitsland. Meer dan de helft komt van onze oosterburen, en dan vooral autoindustrie en chemie.

De Groene vicekanselier Robert Habeck mag dan wel zeggen dat de Duitse afhankelijkheid van China en Rusland was alsof het land gedrogeerd was, de uiteenvallende coalitie en de sterke wil van de grote bedrijven bieden niet veel uitzicht op verandering.

Ander belangrijk nieuws zijn dat Chinese sancties nu ook mogelijk wapenleveranties aan Oekraïne raken. Na weer Amerikaanse wapenverkoop aan Taiwan, heeft Peking weer sancties uitgevaardigd op een aantal bedrijven. Hieronder valt ook Skydio, dat drones had verkocht aan de Taiwanese brandweer. Dat klinkt vrij onschuldig, maar het is ook een zeldzame concurrent bij militaire toepassingen van het succesvolle Chinese DJI 大疆 – waar zowel Oekraïne als Rusland erg veel gebruik van maken. Skydio heeft nu acute problemen met zijn leveringsketens, die van China afhankelijk waren, en moet batterijen rantsoeneren. Het levert ook aan Oekraïne.

Het lot van Skydio is een leerzaam moment. Het Westen is lang gewend geweest om ongestraft sancties uit te kunnen delen zonder zelf echt kwetsbaar te zijn. De uitzondering van de oliecrisis van 1973 is vaak al weer vergeten. Nu hebben we in China een industriegrootmacht tegenover ons die hard terug kan slaan.

Het enthousiasme waarmee grote Duitse bedrijven stevig door blijven investeren in ketens die leunen op China, zou tot vragen moeten leiden nu ons continent haar lang verwaarloosde defensie en bijbehorende industrieën weer op wil krikken. Onder de sectie Weekend staat er vandaag een belangwekkende studie van MERICS over de weerbaarheid en veerkracht van Europese landen m.b.t. China. Handelsblatt kopt niet voor niets dat vooral Duitsland erg kwetsbaar is.

Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺

Onderzoek: „China intimideert Nederlandse media en correspondenten” – NOS 🇳🇱
Onderzoek: Nederlandse redacties slecht voorbereid op Chinese inmenging en intimidatie – Villamedia 🇳🇱
Chinese invloed en inmenging in het Nederlandse medialandschap – Ardi Bouwers en Susanne Kamerling voor CKN: „De hoofdconclusie is dat China zich – zowel binnen de grenzen van de Volksrepubliek China als in Nederland – richt op een uitputtingsslag van kritische stemmen over China (het chilling effect), zodat zij minder actief worden, overstemd raken of helemaal opgeven.” 🇳🇱

Cross-party Dutch lower house delegation meets National Security Council head Joseph Wu 吳釗燮 – Taipei Times: ‘Separately, Christoph Hoffman, chair of the German parliament’s Committee on Economic Cooperation and Development, yesterday met with Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu’ 🇳🇱🇩🇪

La justice française enquête sur les liens entre ex-ministre Jean-Louis Borloo et Huawei 华为 – Challenges: « pour trafic d’influence, abus de biens sociaux et recel » 🇫🇷
Corruptieonderzoek naar voormalige minister in Frankrijk i.v.m. banden met Huawei.

EU investments in China soar to new quarterly record of €3.6 billion – SCMP: ‘EU businesses’ greenfield investments there surged to record levels in the second quarter of 2024, led by German car makers.’ 🇪🇺🇩🇪
Don’t Stop Believin’: The inexorable rise of German FDI in China – Rhodium Group: ‘To a greater extent than ever before, EU investments in China are being driven by Germany and its carmakers.’ 🇪🇺🇩🇪
Germany’s reliance on China and Russia was like being ‘doped’, vice chancellor Robert Habeck says – Nikkei Asia 🇩🇪

A broadening array of European firms is blaming China for glum earnings outlooks, as weak demand, government scrutiny, and tariff spats with the trading partner put pressure on stocks – Bloomberg 🇪🇺

Ambassador Cài Rùn 蔡润, Head of the Chinese Mission to the EU, met with Stefano Sannino, Secretary-General of the EEAS – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union: ‘He noted that China and Europe are two major forces advancing multipolarity, two big markets supporting globalization, and two great civilizations advocating diversity.’ 🇪🇺
Minister Zhū Jīng 朱京 attends the 10th Europe Forum and delivers a speech – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union: ‘China and Europe are two major forces advancing multipolarity, two big markets supporting globalization, and two great civilizations advocating diversity.’ 🇪🇺
Je zou haast denken dat ze dezelfde tekstschrijver hadden.

China: Statement by the Spokesperson on the sentencing of Yu Wensheng and Xu Yan – EU EEAS: ‘Yu Wensheng and Xu Yan were detained on 13 April 2023, on their way to the EU Delegation in Beijing for a meeting with senior officials of the European External Action Service.’ 🇪🇺

Lithuania’s presumptive PM Gintautas Paluckas vows to restore ties with China – BNS 🇱🇹

Rusland 🇷🇺

Chinese sanctions hit US drone maker supplying Ukraine – FT: ‘Skydio, the US’s largest drone maker and a supplier to Ukraine’s military, faces a supply chain crisis’
‘in retaliation for Washington’s approval of the sale of attack drones to Taiwan. Skydio had recently won a contract with Taiwan’s fire agency.’
‘“We suspect Skydio was targeted by Beijing because it is likely seen as a competitor to DJI,” said one US official.’ 🇺🇸🇺🇦

US turns to China to stop North Korean troops from fighting for Russia – The New York Times: ‘To convey threats to North Korea, U.S. officials are talking to China. And American officials say they hope the conversations further stoke any suspicions China might feel about the troop deployment.’ 🇺🇸🇰🇵

The US is sanctioning almost 400 individuals and companies in India, China and Turkey as part of a bid to crack down on a sprawling network that has helped keep Russia’s war machine running – Bloomberg 🇺🇸🇷🇺

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Andrei Rudenko meets China’s foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 in Beijing, Russia’s RIA reports – Reuters: ‘Rudenko has been involved in developing Russian ties with North Korea after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion on Ukraine in February 2022. He was also a member of the Russian delegations at peace negotiations with Ukraine early in the war.’ 🇷🇺
Chinese foreign minister meets with Russian deputy foreign minister in Beijing – Xinhua: ‘They exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis.’ 🇷🇺

Handel 🚗🇪🇺

Exclusive: China’s commerce ministry tells Chinese carmakers to pause investment in EU countries backing EV tariffs, sources say – Reuters: ‘and were “encouraged” to invest in those that voted against the tariffs, the people said.’ 🇪🇺
Beijing to Chinese EV makers: think twice about investing in tariff-backing EU countries – SCMP: ‘Two executives with Chinese carmakers, […], told the Post that the Mofcom order is not compulsory and can be characterised as “window guidance”.’ 🇪🇺

Hogere importheffing op Chinese e-auto’s, maar ze worden hier in Europa niet duurder. Hoe zit dat? – de Volkskrant 🇪🇺

China’s commerce ministry expresses disapproval for EU’s tariff ruling over Chinese EVs – Xinhua: ‘China does not approve of or accept the European Commission’s decision’
‘China has already appealed to the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism’ 🇪🇺
Xinhua Commentary: EU tariffs on Chinese EVs unwise protectionist move serving no one’s interest – Xinhua 🇪🇺
World Insights: EU’s protectionist tariffs on Chinese EVs face backlash from industry, officials – Xinhua 🇪🇺
EU tariff hikes on Chinese electric vehicles come at end of long and bumpy road – SCMP: ‘Newly published documents, […], show how bruising long rounds of negotiations on EVs have become.’ 🇪🇺

China’s SAIC 上汽 to file lawsuit in Luxembourg countering EU’s ruling on EVs – Reuters 🇪🇺
China’s SAIC 上汽 denies reports of negotiations with EU on EVs, government-backed media says – Reuters 🇪🇺

Chinese EV makers lost ground in Europe for a third straight month, in the latest sign that higher import tariffs are hurting sales – Bloomberg: ‘Chinese brands captured an 8.5% share of EV deliveries across the European region in September, down from 9.6% in the year-earlier period, based on figures provided by researcher Dataforce.’ 🇪🇺

Volkswagen: BYD hängt in China den gesamten VW-Konzern ab – Handelsblatt 🇩🇪
Toyota 豐田 1st-half global output drops 7% on China, 1st fall in 4 years – Kyodo News 🇯🇵

EU launches action against shopping website Temu over illegal products – The Guardian 🇪🇺
Commission opens formal proceedings against Temu under the Digital Services Act – European Commission 🇪🇺

Wereldhandelsorganisatie WTO verliest haar relevantie – NRC

Tech War 💽💥

Chinese planemaker COMAC 中国商飞 expands overseas push with Hong Kong and Singapore offices – Reuters 🇸🇬

China and New Zealand launch fast patent grant programme – Xinhua 🇳🇿

TSMC 台積電’s Huawei 华为 Headache – The Wire China
Democratic lawmaker takes aim at Biden over TSMC 台積電 chip in Huawei 华为 product, letter shows – Reuters 🇺🇸

TSMC 台積電 is Taiwan’s most famous company, but many of the island’s lesser-known firms are also helping power the AI revolution – Bloomberg: ‘the world’s AI frontrunners are increasingly turning to Taiwanese companies to fabricate their chips, build their servers and cool their devices.’

‘Dagdromer’ Zhāng Yīmíng 张一鸣, oprichter ByteDance 字节跳动 en TikTok, is nu de rijkste man van China – de Volkskrant

Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️

Australia to invest A$18bn [€11bn] on missile manufacturing in face of China’s rise – FT 🇦🇺

Amerikaanse verkiezingen 🗳️🇺🇸

Bereidt Nederland zich voor op Trump? Het is nu al te laat, zegt oud-diplomaat Henne Schuwer – NRC

Hoe kijken Rusland en China naar de Amerikaanse verkiezingen? – NRC

Weekend 🏖️📚

Longreads en achtergrond

Deutschland ist mit Blick auf China in Europa besonders verwundbar – Handelsblatt: „die große Abhängigkeit von China in manchen Bereichen verunsichert die deutsche Wirtschaft und beeinflusst politische Entscheidungen.“ 🇪🇺🇩🇪
The Europe-China Resilience Audit: Insights for advancing European resilience – Grzegorz Stec and Helena Legarda for MERICS: ‘the Netherlands has the highest exposure to China in terms of FDI into China (3.68 percent as share of GDP), with Germany second at 2.68 percent.’ 🇪🇺

‘#PartyOfOne is now available in Dutch, published by @prometheusbb under the title "Eenmanspartij."’ – Chun Han Wong 王春翰, Twitter
Misschien wel het beste boek voor mensen die op zoek zijn naar een instapper om meer te weten over China – Party of One van de Singaporese WSJ-journalist Chun Han Wong – is nu ook in het Nederlands beschikbaar als Eenmanspartij.

‘𝘞𝘢𝘵 𝘷𝘰𝘯𝘥 𝘫𝘦 𝘷𝘢𝘯 𝘥𝘪𝘵 𝘫𝘢𝘢𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘊𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘢? Die vraag is me vaak gesteld, en niet eenvoudig te beantwoorden. Daarom heb ik het samengevat in een kort opstel. […]’ – Leon Verbakel 冯瑞恒, LinkedIn

How southeast China police use Mazu deity to mediate disputes with remarkable success – SCMP

The world is increasingly driving Chinese EVs, scrolling the web on Chinese smartphones and powering their homes with Chinese solar panels, and the US is struggling to stop it – Bloomberg: ‘Xi is making steady progress in positioning China to dominate industries of the future.’

Why China Won’t Give Up on a Failing Economic Model: Beijing might see short-term gains—but ignores the risk of long-term pain – Zongyuan Zoe Liu for Foreign Affairs

What no one talks about when they talk about Taiwan – Brian Hioe for The Nation: ‘[Sulmaan Wasif Khan’s] The Struggle for Taiwan […] ultimately […] fails to grasp the democracy-from-below dynamics that exist in the country’

Podcasts

PRC Leadership Decisionmaking: A Conversation with Mr Jon Czin – CSIS ChinaPower Project 🍎

The Latecomers Rise: Policy Banks and the Globalization of China's Development Finance – CSIS Pekingology with Muyang Chen 🍎

Southeast Asia and the South China Sea – China in the World 🍎

Overige

China buitenland en defensie

US released a Chinese detainee to free imprisoned American pastor David Lin – POLITICO: ‘said John Kamm, founder of the nonprofit prisoner release advocacy organization Dui Hua Foundation. “I can’t think of a single example in my 50 years of doing this where they have released [a U.S. citizen] as part of a swap,”’ 🇺🇸
Als het hek eenmaal van de dam is…

China-US financial working group holds sixth meeting – Xinhua 🇺🇸

China ‘compromised’ Canadian government networks and stole valuable info, cyber spy agency CSE says – CBC News: ‘At least 20 networks associated with government of Canada agencies and departments have been compromised by PRC cyber-threat actors, said the agency.’ 🇨🇦

Chinese PLA Navy holds first dual aircraft carrier drills in South China Sea – SCMP

Indonesia to respond appropriately to South China Sea incidents, official says – Reuters: ‘after a Chinese coast guard vessel interrupted a survey by Jakarta’s state energy firm.’ 🇮🇩

Beijing and Kuala Lumpur stress close ties amid territorial dispute, controversy over Chinese flag march – The Straits Times: ‘Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is scheduled to attend the CIIE in Shanghai, coinciding with his third visit to China since taking office just two years ago.’ 🇲🇾

No harm in foreign tourists waving China flags, says Perak chief minister – The New Straits Times: ‘Yesterday, the Guan Gong Cultural Association of Malaysia apologised for the waving of China flags during Thursday’s festival.’ 🇲🇾

Indian and Chinese troops at LAC exchange Diwali sweets after border disengagement – Hindustan Times: ‘This traditional practice comes on the heels of a major breakthrough — the completion of disengagement at two friction points in eastern Ladakh’s Demchok and Depsang Plains.’ 🇮🇳

Pharma giant AstraZeneca says its China chief is under investigation – AFP: ‘In September, the company confirmed that several employees were under investigation in China after a report said they were being questioned about potentially illegal data collection and drug imports.’

China built a US$50 billion military stronghold in the South China Sea: Hainan Province – The Washington Post: ‘They are part of what is known as a layered military posture’
China’s ‘mind-boggling’ space capabilities worry US, says Space Force chief – POLITICO Europe
New Chinese mystery flattop emerges – The War Zone

China economie

Chinese turning to casual work to supplement wages amid economic slump – The Straits Times: ‘They are hoping that their side hustles can top up the income that they have lost through delayed wages and salary cuts’
China’s finance sector comes to grips with new normal in year since landmark conference – SCMP: ‘a structural overhaul has been gathering pace as more resources are diverted to bigger market players’

Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s article on promoting high-quality and sufficient employment to be published – Xinhua: ‘Stressing the need to improve policy support for key groups, the article says the employment of youth, including college graduates, must be the top priority. Multiple measures should be taken to promote the employment of migrant workers’
习近平：促进高质量充分就业 – 《求是》2024/21：“就业工作仍面临不少突出矛盾和问题。我国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期，稳增长、稳就业的压力始终存在；”
„Werkgelegenheid wordt nog steeds geconfronteerd met een aantal prominente tegenstellingen en problemen. De ontwikkeling van China is een periode ingegaan waarin strategische kansen naast risico’s en uitdagingen bestaan, en onduidelijke en onvoorspelbare factoren zijn toegenomen.”

Chinese factory activity expands ahead of expected economic support package – FT: ‘strengthened for the first time in six months in October’
Biermerken gaan gebukt onder economische malaise in China – BNR

Bond interest costs Chinese localities over CN¥1.04 trillion [€134bn] for first time in January to September – Yicai Global

In Depth: China’s restaurant chains may be biting off more than they can chew overseas – Caixin Global

In Depth: Banks worry individuals are using loans to ride stock market boom – Caixin Global

China binnenland

China’s Shanghai braces for torrential rain as Typhoon Kong-rey advances – Reuters

Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 signs order to promulgate regulations enhancing reservist management – Xinhua: ‘The regulations focus on establishing a systematic management structure for reserve personnel in the new era’

Leading human rights lawyer Xǔ Zhìyǒng 许志永 on hunger strike in Chinese prison, family says – The Guarrdian

China’s central government intervenes to prop up struggling local bus services – Sixth Tone: ‘requires local authorities to ensure that funding for public transportation is incorporated into their municipal budgets’

Hong Kong

4 Hong Kong men sentenced up to 3 years in jail over rioting in July 2019 – HKFP
6 Hong Kong pro-democracy activists fined for raising funds and displaying banners without a permit, as 4 plead not guilty – HKFP

Hong Kong police crime unit takes over journalist intimidation cases, press group says – HKFP

Hong Kong opens doors wider to mainland Chinese as birth rate drops – Nikkei Asia

Taiwan buitenland en defensie

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office blasts Taiwanese SEF deer offer, pushes ‘1992 consensus’ instead – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Chinese mainland to further enhance access for Taiwan compatriots – Xinhua 🇨🇳

The leader of Palau, one of Taiwan’s last diplomatic allies in the Pacific, said his nation is under increasing pressure from China to end its support for Taipei – Bloomberg: ‘President Surangel Whipps Jr also accused China of violating the exclusive economic zone of his nation’ 🇵🇼🇨🇳

People’s Daily commentary accuses Taiwan’s President Lai of pushing independence narrative – SCMP [SCMP misses that the news is the extreme vitriol directed at the ‘Taiwan-independence view of history’ 台独史观.]
钟一平：合力铲除“台独史观”这颗“毒瘤” – 《人民日报》（2024年10月31日第04版）：“必须清醒认识到，‘台独史观’歪曲历史事实，背弃民族大义，是彻头彻尾的谎言，是蛊惑人心的毒药，充分暴露‘台独’分子认殖民者、侵略者为父，数典忘祖、自断根脉的恶劣本质。”
Zhong Yi Ping: Met vereende kracht de kwaadaardige tumor van ‘Taiwan-onafhankelijk geschiedenisbeeld’ uitroeien – Volksdagblad: “Men moet nuchter beseffen dat het ‘Taiwan-onafhankelijk geschiedenisbeeld’ de historische feiten verdraait en de rechtschapenheid van het volk de rug toekeert; het is een regelrechte leugen en een vergif om de geesten van de mensen te misleiden, en het legt volledig bloot de verfoeilijk aard van de ‘Taiwanese onafhankelijkheid’-elementen die kolonialisten [Nederland en Japan] en indringers als hun vaders erkennen, en hun afkomst verloochenen en de eigen wortels afsnijden.”

Taiwan condemns North Korean ICBM launch – Focus Taiwan 🇰🇵

Our best look at Taiwan’s new uncrewed ‘Smart Dragon’ submarine – The War Zone: ‘At this stage, it seems this relatively large drone submarine is intended as a testbed’