De Chinese Wouden, maandag 8 januari: onbruikbare raketten door corruptie?, verkiezingen Taiwan
Het commentaar staat vandaag tussen de nieuwsberichten.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
💡 China kondigt onderzoek aan naar ‘dumpprijzen’ cognac, aandelen Franse producenten kelderen – de Volkskrant 🇪🇺🇫🇷
Frankrijk is een van de belangrijke krachten achter het onderzoek van de Commissie naar Chinese steun voor de elektrische-autoindustrie.
Corruptie Chinees Volksbevrijdingsleger
The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case, according to the people, who asked not to be named discussing intelligence.
The US assessments cited several examples of the impact of graft, including missiles filled with water instead of fuel and vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively, one of the people said.
The US assesses that corruption within the People’s Liberation Army has led to an erosion of confidence in its overall capabilities, particularly when it comes to the Rocket Force, and also set back some of Xi’s top modernization priorities, the people said. […]
[…]
At the same time, the US assesses that Xi hasn’t been weakened by the widening purge, according to the people. Rather, they said, his move to oust senior figures — including some promoted under his watch — shows his hold over the Communist Party remains firm and that he’s serious about improving discipline, eliminating corruption and ultimately preparing China’s military for combat over the long term.
Dit nieuws zorgde dat sommigen terug gingen kijken naar de Chinese raketlanceringen na het bezoek van Nancy Pelosi aan Taiwan en mogelijke problemen met accuraatheid daar.
Tegelijkertijd wezen andere commentatoren ook op het feit dat China enorm veel raketten heeft, waarvan ook met vaste in plaats van vloeibare brandstof. Ook kan Rusland ondanks corruptie en incompetentie nog heel wat bereiken tegen Oekraïne.
Veel kunnen we niet zeker weten. Blijf daarom altijd vragen stellen. Van wie komt dit nieuws? Hoe weten ze dit? Waarom hebben ze dit gedeeld? Waarom hebben hun bronnen dit gedeeld? Hoe betrouwbaar is het?
Taiwan verkiezingen 🇹🇼🗳️
‘Land battle’ hots up in Taiwan elections in last weekend before voting day – The Straits Times
Taiwan braces for ‘big deal’ presidential election as China’s shadow looms – The Observer
strafrecht
2024 Elections: Hsinchu councillor Fan Cheng-lung 范振龍 (KMT) stripped of office for buying votes – Taipei Times: ‘when Chen Te-mu (陳德木) was convicted of vote-buying last year, Fan — who was next in line due to his vote count — replaced him.’ ‘It is the first time in the history of local elections in Taiwan that members of the same party are ousted from the same public office back-to-back.’
‘Meanwhile, Democratic Progressive Party legislative candidate Justin Wu (吳崢) said in a briefing that his opponent in New Taipei City’s Jhonghe District (中和), Chang Chih-lun (張智倫) [KMT], had handed out money and gifts to buy votes.’
More suspects indicted in bribery case involving Terry Gou 郭台銘’s petition drive – Focus Taiwan
Chinese inmenging 🇨🇳🧑🏻⚖️
Independent legislative candidate Ma Chih-wei 馬治薇 detained over alleged cryptocurrency funding from China – Focus Taiwan: ‘was the Taoyuan chapter spokesperson for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in 2023.’
2024 Elections: Detained former spokesperson expelled, TPP says – Taipei Times
Reunification Alliance Party officials detained over China trip case – Focus Taiwan: ‘After the trip, both Chang and Huang held a meeting of the Pingtung chapter where they asked members, including those who went on the China trip, to vote for a “certain political party” and “candidates”’
Fake news plays up ‘anxiety’ in Taiwan over cross-Strait war, says Taiwan FactCheck Center – Focus Taiwan
Het vervelende is dat er een spanning is tussen accuraat berichten over de Chinese bedreigingen en het feit dat Peking de wereld en de Taiwanezen bewust probeert overmatig bang te maken als onderdeel van wat Taipei ‘cognitieve oorlogsvoering’ noemt.
Taiwan boos om Chinese ballonnen: ‘psychologische oorlogsvoering’ – de Volkskrant
DPP’s Lai Ching-te 賴清德 slams KMT for ‘aligning with China’ on cross-Strait issues – Focus Taiwan: ‘“Instead of condemning China’s interference in the election, they have aligned with it,” he said.’
Een ander dilemma is, dat Chinese inmenging een politiek gekleurd onderwerp is in Taiwan.
Prosecutor-general reveals election interference – Taipei Times: ‘As of Thursday, prosecutors were investigating 2,938 cases of alleged election-related law breaches and have listed 3,125 people as defendants, including 40 who were placed in pretrial detention’
Gevolg is dat, hoewel de Chinese inmenging grotendeels bedoeld is om de KMT en aanverwanten te steunen, de aanklagers zich neutraal uitdrukken.
Beijing’s dilemma if DPP wins Taiwan presidential election: what level of response? – SCMP: ‘it risks pushing regional allies further into the US camp. And it could get out of hand if something goes wrong.’
Why Beijing’s latest pre-election attempt to coerce Taiwanese voters could backfire – Lev Nachman and Wen-Ti Sung for The Atlantic Council: ‘However, Beijing’s direct economic-electoral linkage ahead of the election may end up being a double-edged sword. If the purpose is to influence the election’s outcome, then it could backfire because there is so little time left before the election. Nationalist sentiment in Taiwan could be immediately energized by Beijing’s moves. Meanwhile, the economic pain of Taiwanese businesses hurt by Beijing’s changes to the tariffs may take a while to be felt, and perhaps won’t materialize until after the election.’
We hebben ook nog geen groot geweld gezien van Chinese komaf, ondanks dat de inmenging op lager niveau echt enorm is.
standpunten
Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) explains independence – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic: ‘“What is the definition of Taiwan independence? Taiwan sovereignty belongs to 23 million people. It does not belong to the PRC. The ROC and the PRC are not subordinate to each other. This is the definition of Taiwan independence. I am a pragmatic worker. My goal, as I said in my opening statement, protect Taiwan, construct the country, develop the economy, and take care of the people. These are the tasks for a pragmatic worker. That is my sincere answer to you.”’
‘This ambiguity is why Tsai’s ROC constitutional order discourse has been so powerful. She can slide back and forth between different interpretations as necessary.’ ‘Here, Lai revealed that he doesn’t have the same discipline as Tsai. He couldn’t resist the temptation to explain why respecting the constitution is compatible with Taiwan independence.’
Technisch maar uiterst belangrijke analyse van de pogingen van DPP-kandidaat Lai Ching-te om ‘onafhankelijkheid’ te definiëren bij het televisiedebat.
Taiwan’s foreign minister on what’s at stake in the coming election – Joseph Wu in The Economist: ‘If Taiwan’s freedom is undermined, the shared values of democracies around the world will be profoundly affected.’
What does the KMT’s economic platform indicate? – New Bloom: ‘concurrently with the return of Ma Ying-jeou himself to public life’ ‘The KMT has returned to emphasizing that its vision for Taiwan’s future involves restoring economic links with China.’
‘the KMT has increasingly leaned into US-skeptic narratives, including alleging that arms sales to Taiwan are of useless military equipment that, in fact, endanger Taiwan, this has also led to questioning of economic agreements signed with the US and multilateral FTAs more broadly.’
Kaohsiung ammunition depot controversy illustrates pan-Blue scepticism of military – New Bloom
Lokaal KMT politicus lekte vertrouwelijke plannen voor opslag in oorlogstijd om burgers te waarschuwen.
Taiwan opposition party KMT sues DPP for attack ad on copyright grounds – Taiwan News
Taiwan’s justice ministry denies it is reluctant to carry out capital punishment – Focus Taiwan: ‘Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) vice presidential candidate Jaw Shau-kong (趙少康) attacked the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) earlier this week’
Can disaffected youth deliver for Taiwan’s third-placed presidential candidate Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP)? – SCMP
TPP campaign undercut by Ko Wen-je 柯文哲’s misogyny and gaffes – New Bloom: ‘TPP vice presidential candidate Cynthia Wu has not proven much better.’
Ko Wen-je is vooral populair onder jonge mannen.
achtergrond
💡 Becoming Taiwan: in China’s shadow, an island asserts its identity – FT: ‘“What we are seeing is two nationalisms, the Taiwan one and the ROC one, gradually coming together,” [Yang] says. “China’s inflexible course is only accelerating that.”’
Excellent achtergrondstuk met hetzelfde kritieke punt in de conclusie dat ik ook probeer te maken in het Taiwan-hoofdstuk van mijn proefschrift en een ouder artikel voor 9DASHLINE.
Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP), the miner’s son who staunchly defends Taiwan’s sovereignty – Nikkei Asia: ‘Lai has long held the ambition of becoming president, unsuccessfully challenging Tsai in the primaries for the 2020 presidential race.’
Koploper in Taiwanese verkiezingen Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) moet koorddansen met China – de Volkskrant
Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 (KMT), Taiwan’s ‘law and order’ poster child aims for top job – Nikkei Asia: ‘His critics, however, point to his lack of reflection toward his days as a hardline policeman during Taiwan’s authoritarian past.’
Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP), the maverick seeking to break Taiwan’s two-party dominance – Nikkei Asia: ‘In recent years, Ko has frequently shifted his policy positions while appearing to be more ambiguous about Taiwan’s relations with China than his two rivals.’
Tech War 💽💥
💡 Huawei 华为 laptop teardown shows 5nm chip made in Taiwan, not China – Bloomberg: ‘the Chinese company has been stockpiling vital semiconductors since the US began cutting off its access to components and gear globally.’
Er is een bewuste campagne om ons te doen geloven in de onnut van de exportbeperkingen.
Foxconn (Hon Hai 鴻海) to expand investments in China’s Henan, focus on key component development – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan eyes 2027 for first local quantum computer – Taipei Times
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Zr.Ms. Tromp vertrekt in maart voor wereldreis - via Rode Zee? – Marineschepen.nl: ‘De belangrijkste oefening die op het programma staat is Rim of the Pacific (beter bekend als RIMPAC) vanuit Hawaï.’ 🇳🇱
China has new full-scale practice target of America’s USS Gerald R. Ford supercarrier – The Warzone
China unveils next-generation Fujian carrier with rare aircraft catapult – The Telegraph
Beijing must harness AI to boost China’s image on the ‘global stage’, party newspaper says – SCMP: ‘China should leverage AI-generated content for its international messaging and image building and enhance content scrutiny, according to commentary published on Friday by a newspaper of the Central Party School.’
Noord-Korea
VS: Rusland vuurt Noord-Koreaanse raketten af op Oekraïne – NOS
Na jaren van testen verschijnen Noord-Koreaanse raketten nu op het slagveld in Oekraïne. Wat zijn de gevolgen? – de Volkskrant
Noord-Korea schiet op zeegrens, Zuid-Korea reageert met oefening – NOS
China urges ‘calm and restraint’ from all sides after North Korea fires artillery near South Korean islands – AFP
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Hamas ‘using massive stockpile of Chinese weaponry’ in Gaza – The Telegraph
Scoop: US President Biden preparing to keep many of Trump’s China tariffs – Axios: ‘and aims to increase duties on electric vehicles and some critical minerals’
China legt sancties op aan Amerikaanse defensiebedrijven om wapenverkoop aan Taiwan –NU.nl
China’s military starts fresh exercise in the South China Sea day after US-Philippine patrol ends – SCMP
China’s biggest land grab carves into ancestral areas of Bhutan’s royal family – NDTV
China’s vice foreign minister Sūn Wèidōng 孙卫东 met with Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing to discuss clamping down on telecommunication scams and promoting trade – Bloomberg
Myanmar military ‘provided protection for US$ 14 billion a year scam hub’ on China border – The Irrawaddy
Rebellen in Myanmar veroveren stad aan grens met China – NOS
Iran’s oil trade with China stalls as Tehran demands higher prices – Reuters
China economie
💡 Chinese shadow banking giant Zhongzhi 中植 has filed for bankruptcy after saying it’s insolvent – Bloomberg: ‘Beijing’s First Intermediate People’s Court decided to accept the case’
China’s government spending will rise this year, the nation’s finance minister Lán Fó'ān 蓝佛安 said, as authorities look for ways to bolster domestic demand and help the world’s second-largest economy regain momentum – Bloomberg
China will increase government spending to bolster economy – Caixin Global: ‘The government will strengthen the overall coordination of fiscal resources, utilizing a combination of special bonds, national bonds, and other policy tools such as tax incentives and fiscal subsidies to moderately expand the scale of fiscal spending, Lan said in an interview published Thursday by official newspaper People’s Daily.’
China’s primary sector workforce sees first increase in decades as migrants back on the farm – SCMP
Gaat dit om mensen die echt in de landbouw werken, of om mensen waarvan de statistiek aanneemt dat ze in de landbouw werken omdat ze een plattelandsregistratie hebben en daarmee formeel een aandeel in het land van hun dorp? Dit is waarom plattelanders niet mee worden genomen in werkloosheidcijfers.
China binnenland
China’s Xinjiang region says all new religious buildings must ‘reflect Chinese characteristics’ – SCMP
Online influencers promote Han ‘colonisation’ in Xinjiang – China Digital Times
Chine : les influenceurs de la colonisation – Arte SOURCES
‘We did it to our own people’: How China forced Kazakhs to implement its ethnic crackdown – The Telegraph
Bishop Peter Shao Zhumin 邵祝敏 of the Diocese of Wenzhou, who was removed from diocese by Chinese Communist regime, is arrested – Catholic News Agency
China targets unauthorised devices it says are used to send flight data to ‘foreign entities’ – SCMP
China’s court database reform stokes fears for transparency in legal sector – FT
Hong Kong
De nieuwe manieren die journalisten in Hongkong hebben gevonden om toch hun kritiek te uiten – de Volkskrant: „‘We proberen de rode lijn niet te overschrijden, maar er is niet echt een lijn, het is meer een vaag concept van een grijze zone’, zegt Sum Wan Wah, een voormalig journalist van Stand News, de nieuwssite die eind 2021 moest sluiten.”
It’s not Beijing that’s turning Hong Kong into just another Chinese city – Wang Xiangwei for SCMP: ‘While Beijing has very good reasons to keep Hong Kong separate as a capitalist city, it is Hong Kong’s political elite who are, consciously or subconsciously, hastening its mainlandisation.’
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
South Koreans charged with leaking submarine secrets to Taiwan – FT: ‘motivated at least in part by a fear of retaliation from Beijing.’
South Korea steps up probe on alleged submarine tech leaks to Taiwan – The Korea Economic Daily: ‘The alleged leak was reported by a pro-Beijing [too strong] Taiwanese lawmaker [KMT’s Ma Wen-chun], who informed the Taipei Mission in South Korea [South Korean Mission in Taipei]’
Fresh indictment of South Koreans sparks war of words between DPP and KMT – Focus Taiwan: ‘Shortly after news about the indictments broke, KMT Legislator Ma Wen-chun (馬文君) demanded that the Defense Ministry promptly investigate whether any Taiwanese nationals were involved in the alleged technology leaks.’ ‘Ma Wen-chun’s office previously confirmed that Ma had delivered an audio recording […] to the Korean Mission in Taipei, asking the South Korean authorities to investigate the matter.’ ‘The Taiwan High Prosecutors Office is looking into allegations of treason’
De KMT frustreerde al onder president Chen Shui-bian (2000–8) Taiwanese pogingen om onderzeeboten te kopen van de Verenigde Staten en poogt nu ook hand om tand het binnenlandse bouwprogramma te ondermijnen.
Taiwanese mensenrechtenactivist Lee Ming-che 李明哲 zat vast in China: „Ik ben mentaal onderdrukt” – NOS
Taiwanese medical team arrives in Japan – Taipei Times
Japan did not ‘reject’ quake aid, Taiwan’s foreign ministry says – Taipei Times: ‘Japan was not planning to accept any human or material support from other countries for the time being’
Foreign minister to attend Arevalo’s inauguration in Guatemala, report says – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
CPI growth in 2023 hits 2nd highest level in 15 years – Focus Taiwan: ‘Taiwan’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.50 percent in 2023’
Taiwan’s forex reserves hit new high at end of 2023 – Focus Taiwan: ‘as the local central bank continued market intervention to keep the Taiwan dollar from rising further against the U.S. dollar’
Taiwan’s low and inadequate wages have led to Taiwanese becoming unhappier and self-centred – Roy Ngerng for The News Lens
Taiwan High Speed Rail Corp hands out record bonuses as strike looms – Taipei Times