De Chinese Wouden, maandag 7 juli: inhaalnieuwsbrief, Oekraïne
Een extra lange nieuwsbrief met minder tijd voor analyse, na een goede, drukke week bij MERIC in Berlijn. Ik ben niet alleen getroffen door de hittegolf. De geopolitieke en economische uitdagingen waar Europa voor staat zijn al lang een crisis geworden. De uitdagingen zijn existentieel en niet op te lossen met enkel een beter Chinabeleid.
Tegelijkertijd is het ook geruststellend hoeveel slimme mensen in Europa binnen en buiten de overheden zich bewust zijn van en zich bezig houden met de problemen. We varen niet blind. Wel hangt er heel erg veel af van de politieke wil in de lagen boven die slimme mensen. Het zou daarbij helpen als men niet alleen aandacht heeft voor uiteindelijke irrelevante ‘crises’ die slechts gevoeld worden.
Het meest opvallende bericht van de afgelopen week staat in SCMP. Volgens bronnen zou de Chinese buitenlandminister Wang Yi tijdens zijn treffen met EU-tegenhanger Kaja Kalles hebben gezegd, dat Peking zich niet kan veroorloven dat Rusland de oorlog verliest van Oekraïne. Bronnen van NRC bevestigen deze lezing.
Dat Peking Rusland niet wil zien verliezen, is een breed gedeelde analyse. Wat is schokkend, is dat Wang dit zelf expliciet gezegd zou hebben. Sommige mensen trokken de berichtgeving daarom in twijfel. Maar het schijnt dus echt te zijn hoe Europese diplomaten het in ieder geval begrepen hebben.
Op internationaal handelsgebied veel nieuws over Europa en China. Scroll omlaag. Ook zien we Canadese overgave aan Washington op de digitale belasting en de G7 die de VS een uitzondering geeft voor de mondiale minimumbelasting op bedrijven. Dit zijn alleen maar meer bewijzen voor Peking dat de Westerse wereld aan de leiband van de VS loopt.
Er is belangrijk politiek nieuws onder China binnenland. Er was een intrigerende vergadering van het Politburo over controle. Ik wil alles eerst rustig overdenken voordat ik commentaar geef. Maar de speculatie hierover samen met de geruchtenmaalstroom over de positie van Xi Jinping houdt veel mensen bezig. Ondertussen schrijf Xi Jinping in partijtheorietijdschrijft Qiueshi over de samenhang tussen eenheid en strijd. Discipline en strijd: het wordt niet rustiger.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Netbeheerder Tennet beëindigt contract Chinese kabelleverancier TBEA vanwege Oeigoerse dwangarbeid – de Volkskrant 🇳🇱
Sterke economie, sterke veiligheid: kabinet neemt regie voor economische veiligheid – Rijksoverheid 🇳🇱
驻荷兰大使谈践出席“荷乒乓少年访华团”行前交流会 – 中国驻荷兰王国大使馆 🇳🇱
Ping-pong diplomacy! Voorbereidend bezoek van jonge Nederlandse tafeltennissers aan de Chinese ambassade.
China’s Wáng Yì 王毅 tells EU’s Kaja Kallas that Beijing cannot afford Russian loss in Ukraine war, sources say – SCMP: ‘because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.’
‘Some EU officials felt he was giving her a lesson in realpolitik’
‘The sources said Wang told Kallas the two-day summit itself could be truncated’
‘The Europeans got no reassurances from Wang that a structural end to the [rare earth] crisis was in the works.’ 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Chinese buitenlandminister tegen Kallas: Rusland mag oorlog tegen Oekraïne niet verliezen – NRC: „Een hooggeplaatste Europese diplomaat bevestigt deze lezing aan NRC.” 🇪🇺🇺🇦
The Chinese government intends to cancel part of a summit with EU leaders planned for later this month, in the latest sign of the tensions between Brussels and Beijing – Bloomberg: ‘The meeting will now just be one day in Beijing.’ 🇪🇺
Brussel kan de top beter gewoon afzeggen.
China edges closer to Airbus mega-deal, leaving Boeing out in the cold, analysts say – SCMP
Beijing is enabling Moscow’s crimes: Ukraine finds Chinese parts in Russian drones used in 4 July most massive strike of war – Euromaidan: ‘The Security Service of Ukraine has found Chinese-made components in the debris of Iranian Shahed drones used by Russia to strike Kyiv.’ 🇺🇦🇷🇺
Russia damages Chinese consulate in Odesa as Chinese drone parts found in Kyiv following similar attack – Kyiv Independent: ‘China has not publicly acknowledged the incident or reported any damage to its diplomatic premises in the city.’ 🇺🇦🇷🇺
China: High Representative/Vice-President Kaja Kallas holds EU-China Strategic Dialogue with Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 – EU EEAS 🇪🇺
China rejects blame for EU economic woes, Brussels urges rare earth access – Nikkei Asia 🇪🇺
China is ready to cooperate with France in industries such as nuclear power, aviation, AI, green energy and biotechnology, visiting Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 said – Bloomberg 🇫🇷
Chinese Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 urges China and France to further enhance people-to-people exchanges – Xinhua: ‘leading representatives of Eastern and Western civilizations’ 🇫🇷
Chinese Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 urges China, France to uphold multilateralism, rules of free trade – Xinhua 🇫🇷
German chancellor meets Chinese Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 in Berlin – Xinhua: ‘China appreciates the new German government’s constructive and pragmatic approach to advancing bilateral ties, Wang noted’ 🇩🇪
China and Germany hold 8th round of strategic dialogue on diplomacy and security – Xinhua: ‘The Chinese foreign minister added that the two countries should inject more certainty into the world’ 🇩🇪
China-EU relations should be characterised as partnership, says Chinese FM in Berlin – Xinhua: ‘Wang pointed out that some people are trying to talk down China-EU relations, exaggerate specific issues’ 🇩🇪🇪🇺
China stands ready to strengthen bond of cooperation with Greece, Chinese premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 says – Xinhua 🇬🇷
Xinhua to enhance cooperation with Greek media – Xinhua: ‘Both China and Greece are ancient civilizations, and the time-honored friendship between the two countries continues to grow, Fu said.’ 🇬🇷
China left off toughest tier of UK regime tracking ‘covert foreign influence’ – FT: ‘confirmation that Beijing will not be on the enhanced tier angered some China hawks, particularly in the opposition Conservative party.’ 🇬🇧
Taiwan and UK sign three trade pacts to promote closer bilateral ties – Focus Taiwan 🇬🇧
Beijing launches first China-Europe freight train to cross Caspian Sea – Xinhua: ‘is bound for Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan.’ 🇦🇿
China’s top political advisor meets deputy speaker of BiH’s House of Representatives – Xinhua 🇧🇦
NB: Marinko Čavara is onder Amerikaanse sancties.
Taiwan-friendly lawmakers from Lithuania visit Taiwan – Focus Taiwan 🇱🇹
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📉💥
The EU-China reset that never was: summits begin but divisions remain – SCMP: ‘Officials believe Beijing is playing a “waiting game”, observing how China’s and the EU’s talks with the US progress before making any offers.’ 🇪🇺
China and EU close to EV tariff deal, state media says, dismisses ‘trade diversion’ fears – SCMP 🇪🇺
“【#中欧电动车谈判技术部分已基本完成# 】#独家披露中欧电动汽车谈判最新进展# 谭主了解到，目前，中欧电动汽车谈判的技术部分已经基本完成，只欠临门一脚，关键在于欧方能否展现出相应的政治意愿推动问题的解决。” – 玉渊谭天, Weibo
NB: Yuyuan Tan Tian is eerder al niet helemaal betrouwbaar gebleken wat betreft voortgang met de EU.
China retaliates to EU ban with import restrictions on medical devices – Reuters 🇪🇺
China to take measures against medical devices imported from EU in government procurement – Xinhua 🇪🇺
China-EU trade tensions rise as Beijing levies anti-dumping tariffs on European brandy – SCMP 🇪🇺
China spares major EU cognac-makers in trade war – POLITICO 🇪🇺🇫🇷
Voorzitter EUCCC-Shanghai Carlo D’Andrea: „Dit is het moment voor Europa om eisen aan China te stellen” – NRC: „Dat China vooroploopt in economische innovatie en dat Europa erachteraan loopt, is een boodschap die Carlo D’Andrea duidelijk wil overbrengen.” 🇪🇺
Ik schreef op 1 mei al het Financieele Dagblad dat de Europese markt een troefkaart is voor Brussel, ondanks Pekings neerbuigende stugheid richting de EU.
French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said Europe must shore up its tariff barriers to counter Chinese imports that risk harming the continent’s industrial economy – Bloomberg 🇫🇷
As China, EU eye warmer ties, Brussels seeks to protect its crown jewel – manufacturing – SCMP 🇪🇺
China’s tighter export controls squeeze wider range of rare earths – FT: ‘But China’s commerce ministry and customs officials have started to demand additional inspections and third-party chemical testing and analysis of products that are not included in the original control list, according to Chinese companies and western industry executives.
“As long as it contains even a single sensitive word (such as magnet), customs won’t release it — it will trigger an inspection, and once that starts, it can take one or two months,” said a salesperson at a Chinese magnet exporter.’
‘A representative of a second Chinese company said it had been “heavily affected” and that logistics companies were “refusing to handle magnets”.’
Dit is zo typisch voor de manier waarop de Chinese partijstaat werkt. Zodra iets gevoelig wordt, krijg je op de lagere niveaus gelijk het maandag al genoemde céng céng jiā ma3 层层加码 en angst om het onderwerp aan te raken.
European companies look to France for domestic rare earths sector – FT: ‘France’s place at the centre of Europe’s efforts to develop a rare earths industry comes from its history as a significant processor of the metals before it was outpaced by China.’ 🇫🇷🇪🇺
China reroutes exports via south-east Asia in bid to dodge Trump’s tariffs – FT: ‘the shortfall in [Chinese] trade with the US was offset by a 15 per cent increase in shipping to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations trade bloc and a 12 per cent rise to the EU.’
China manufacturing activity shrinks as trade war bites – FT: ‘contracted for the third straight month in June, according to official data’
China’s manufacturing sector sees stronger momentum with steady transformation – Xinhua
Stop the price wars: China’s state media guns target cutthroat industrial competition – SCMP: ‘In a front-page editorial on Sunday, People’s Daily raged against cutthroat neijuan tactics “infesting” various industries with excess capacity’
China rolls out tax incentives to win back foreign investors amid EU and US trade tensions – SCMP
VS-China 🇨🇳
Siemens has received a notice from the US government saying that Washington has lifted export restrictions on chip design software for China – Bloomberg 🇺🇸🇩🇪
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been preparing for decades for a clash with the US, taking lessons from Soviet failures – WSJ: ‘President Trump is waging an economic assault. But Chinese leader Xi Jinping is fighting a Cold War.’ 🇺🇸
As Donald Trump brandishes US export controls on technology as a bargaining chip to wrest supplies of rare earth magnets from Beijing, China is showcasing what it can do without the most advanced American semiconductors – Bloomberg: ‘authorities lined up a host of executives from technology companies to meet with journalists from Bloomberg News and other media outlets. The message was ultimately one of defiance: China’s technology sector still aims at world dominance despite US curbs.’ 🇺🇸
Will Trump visit China for WWII Victory Day? ‘Cautious optimism’ as speculation swirls – SCMP 🇺🇸
The US and China need to pick up the pace of preparations if a leaders’ summit is to take place in the fall, according to an adviser to the Foreign Ministry in Beijing – Bloomberg 🇺🇸
Trump says US and China will hold talks on TikTok deal early next week – SCMP 🇺🇸
End of tax-free loophole for low-value goods disrupts air shipments to US from China – Reuters 🇺🇸
Techoorlog 💽💥
Dreigt Nederland de AI-boot te missen? – de Volkskrant 🇳🇱
Schweizer ABB startet neue Roboter-Offensive in China – Handelsblatt 🇨🇭
Foxconn 鴻海 has asked hundreds of Chinese engineers and technicians to return home from its iPhone factories in India, dealing a blow to Apple’s manufacturing push in the South Asian country – Bloomberg: ‘Earlier this year, officials in Beijing verbally encouraged regulatory agencies and local governments to curb technology transfers and equipment exports to India and Southeast Asia’ 🇮🇳
Chinese chipmaker Sophgo 算能 adapts compute card for DeepSeek in Beijing’s self-reliance push – SCMP
Taiwan’s no. 2 chipmaker UMC 聯華 eyes entering cutting-edge race – Nikkei Asia: ‘UMC is exploring future growth drivers, four people said, including potentially 6-nanometer chip production’
Samsung 三星 delaying completion of US chip plant due to lack of customers – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸🇰🇷
Chinese investeringen in buitenlandse mijnbouw op recordhoogte – FD
Tesla’s V4 superchargers begin operation in China – Reuters 🇺🇸
Taiwan intelligence agency warns of RedNote, TikTok, Weibo, WeChat, and Baidu Cloud data vulnerabilities – Focus Taiwan
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Chinese premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 calls on BRICS to be vanguard in advancing global governance reform – Xinhua: ‘changes unseen in a century are unfolding at an accelerated pace’
China is quietly supplanting Russia as Cuba’s main benefactor – Reuters: ‘A Reuters review of various sites on the ground suggests that where many of Russia’s most recent promises have fizzled, China has discreetly stepped up to fill the void, pushing ahead with a number of critically-timed projects aimed at helping Cuba salvage its economy.’ 🇨🇺🇷🇺
China may ask Russia to attack NATO if Taiwan is invaded, Rutte says – Kyiv Independent 🇷🇺
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China’s Wáng Yì 王毅 calls for ‘new international agreement’ on Iran after US and Israeli attacks – SCMP 🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸
Chinese envoy demands immediate, lasting ceasefire in Gaza – Xinhua 🇮🇱🇵🇸
US Justice Department says 2 Chinese nationals charged with spying inside the US for Beijing – CNN: ‘investigators believe Lai had been developing Chen to be a Chinese intelligence asset since at least mid-2021.’ 🇺🇸
US-funded Radio Free Asia halts Cantonese service in face of Trump’s funding cuts – HKFP 🇺🇸
Xi replies to US youth pickleball cultural exchange delegation over China visit – Xinhua 🇺🇸
China helped Pakistan with ‘live inputs’ in conflict with India, Indian Army deputy chief says – Reuters 🇮🇳🇵🇰
De dalai lama kondigde aan dat niet China maar Tibetanen zijn reïncarnatie, hun 15de leider, zullen aanwijzen – NRC 🇮🇳
„Een Chinese dalai lama? Dat zou nergens op slaan” – NRC 🇳🇱
Reincarnation of Living Buddhas never decided by reincarnated individuals: signed article – Xinhua
Beijing sanctions Manila’s South China Sea legal claim architect Francis Tolentino – SCMP: ‘Move comes one day after the former Philippine Senate leader’s term ended’ 🇵🇭
Japan to export used destroyers to Philippines to deter China, Yomiuri reports – Reuters 🇵🇭🇯🇵
China, Myanmar, and Thailand endeavour to eradicate telecom fraud networks – Xinhua 🇲🇲🇹🇭
Met een hypermoderne haven in Peru groeit de invloed van China in Latijns-Amerika – NRC 🇵🇪
Fiji says China military base not welcome as Pacific islands steer between superpowers – Reuters 🇫🇯
China’s aircraft carrier formations return after completing far-sea training – Xinhua
China economie
China: The Nostalgia Tour – Lucy Hornby: ‘overall, I found China to be much less changed compared with 2019 than I had expected.’ ‘The much more obvious change, in my neighborhood, was the evaporation of the foreign community.’
‘Nonetheless, nearly every person I met in Beijing – friend or stranger, foreigner or Chinese, native Beijinger or migrant – mentioned how poorly the economy is doing.’
Where did all the laowai go? – Too Simple, Sometimes Naive: ‘Compare 2024’s figure of 67 million foreigners entering and exiting China to that of the 2019 peak.. 97.7 million.’
China’s top leaders vow crackdown on price wars as deflation risks mount – Reuters
Exclusive: Two Chinese securities officials fall to their deaths amid Beijing’s graft sweep – Caixin Global: ‘The meeting was stern, with some officials warning that people hadn’t cherished the opportunities granted to them, an industry insider told Caixin.’
Chinese rural bank gets state rescue as it warns of up to US$265m losses – Nikkei Asia
China binnenland
New Communist Party rules hint China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 is delegating more power to deputies – SCMP: ‘According to [Neil] Thomas, while Xi has delegated some responsibilities to trusted aides, “this is more about conserving his energy for long-term strategic priorities than preparing for retirement”.’
Divergent implications for Xi’s power from new Party regulations – Peter Mattis, Arran Hope, Matthew Johnson, Peace Ajirotutu for Jamestown China Brief Notes: ‘One interpretation sees the regulations as evidence of Xi enhancing his vertical control over the system, while another reading sees him being constrained by the rest of the leadership.’
Don’t get stewed up about Xi Jinping – Charles Parton
Online dissent in China doesn’t mean Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 is on his way out – Yujing Shentu for The Diplomat
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 chairs CCP Politburo meeting to review regulations on the work of the Central Committee’s decision-making, deliberative, and coordinating institutions – Xinhua: ‘The regulations are of great significance for enhancing top-level design, overall coordination, integrated advancement, and effective implementation of major initiatives, the meeting emphasized.’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 stresses advancing full and rigorous Party self-governance through forging good conduct – Xinhua: ‘Xi made the remarks while presiding over a group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.’
June Politburo meeting and study session – Bill Bishop’s Sinocism: ‘When read with the readout of the June Politburo study session from Monday afternoon, I think the likelihood is that these new regulations may be another mechanism for Xi to ensure his decisions are fully implemented.’
习近平：坚持从抓作风入手推进全面从严治党 把新时代党的自我革命要求进一步落实到位 – 新华网：“中央纪委国家监委党风政风监督室主任赵保国同志就这个问题进行讲解，提出工作建议。”
“习近平在听取讲解和讨论后发表重要讲话。他指出，中央八项规定是党中央徙木立信之举，是新时代管党治党的标志性措施。”
Zhao Baoguo, verantwoordelijk voor partij- en politiek gedrag bij de Centrale Commissie voor Discipline Inspectie van de CCP, gaf het betoog waar Xi Jinping de gebruikelijke reflectie over gaf, verwijzend naar de disciplinecampagne over de 8-puntenregulering.
Dit leest inderdaad als een herbevestiging van discipline.
Xi Jinping’s article on unity and hard work to be published in Qiushi Journal – Xinhua
习近平：团结奋斗是中国人民创造历史伟业的必由之路 – 《求是》2025/13：“奋斗本身就是一种幸福。只有奋斗的人生才称得上幸福的人生。奋斗是艰辛的，艰难困苦、玉汝于成，没有艰辛就不是真正的奋斗，我们要勇于在艰苦奋斗中净化灵魂、磨砺意志、坚定信念。”
“新时代是奋斗者的时代。”
„Het Nieuwe Tijdperk [van Xi] is een tijdperk van strijd.”
Selected works of Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 on ecological civilisation published – Xinhua
China’s ethnic affairs overseer Chén Xiǎojiāng 陈小江 to take Communist Party helm in Xinjiang – SCMP: ‘Chen’s predecessor, Ma Xingrui, “will be appointed to another position”, according to the announcement.’
China’s Communist Party tops 100 million members but growth is slowing – SCMP: ‘the rate of membership growth has continued to slow, with one insider attributing this to stricter screening by the Central Organisation Department (COD)’
CCP grows stronger as membership exceeds 100 million – Xinhua: ‘Party membership continued to see positive changes in terms of its composition. The report revealed that […] 57.6 percent of the overall membership, held junior college degrees’
‘Workers and farmers accounted for about 33 percent of all CPC members.’
China’s scorching heat poses summer test for electricity grid – Bloomberg
Hong Kong
Hong Kong delivery workers’ rights group ceases operations – HKFP: ‘The announcement came just days after an opinion piece in the Hong Kong Economic Journal suggesting that lawmakers had been warned not to discuss four issues, including delivery workers’ rights.’
Hong Kong code of conduct will oblige legislators to ‘sincerely support’ Beijing – The Guardian
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
EU envoy in Taiwan emphasises cooperation against hybrid threats – Nikkei Asia 🇪🇺
Taiwan Carbon Solution Exchange (TCX) signs MOU with European Energy Exchange – Taipei Times: ‘the main trading platform of the EU Emission Trading Scheme’ 🇪🇺
China opens third extension to sensitive Taiwan Strait flight path – Reuters: ‘This is the third extension after W122 and W123, which are to the south of W121, opened last year. All three go west to east, from mainland China in the direction of Taiwan.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan urges talks as China unilaterally launches flight route – Focus Taiwan: ‘It noted that under International Civil Aviation Organization regulations, the creation, reduction, or adjustment of flight routes should be coordinated with the regions they pass through and relevant stakeholders.’ 🇨🇳
Three sentenced for holding political events with Chinese funds – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Han Kuang drills to last 10 days, 9 nights, focus on ‘grey zone’ tactics – Focus Taiwan
First of second batch of indigenous stealth missile corvettes launched, source says – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Typhoon Danas makes landfall in Taiwan's Chiayi County – Focus Taiwan
‘Critical period’: Taiwan’s mass recall movement could reshape Parliament – The Straits Times
KMT offices in Taoyuan, Hualien, Taitung, and Nantou raided in recall fraud probe – Taipei Times
Senior KMT official detained in Pingtung recall forgery case – Focus Taiwan: ‘The Pingtung case involved 15 KMT staffers suspected of using falsified personal data in a recall bid against DPP Legislator Wu Li-hua/Saidai Tahovecahe’
Opposition budget plan ‘irresponsible’, Taiwan’s premier says – Taipei Times: ‘repurpose NT$150 billion […] previously allocated for whole-of-society defense resilience, as cash handouts’
Opposition advances motion demanding resignation of Joseph Wu 吳釗燮 over former assistant’s Chinese spy scandal – Taipei Times
Scholars split on prosecutor’s nomination as head of top judicial body – Focus Taiwan
Medical student quota to remain unchanged – Taipei Times: ‘following a backlash from civil associations over an earlier plan to increase it.’