De Chinese Wouden, maandag 6 januari: kantelpunt
Nogmaals gelukkig nieuwjaar aan iedereen die vanaf vandaag weer echt aan het werk gaat. Ik ga juist even een pauze nemen, nog op zoek naar een vaste baan. Vanaf 8 januari ben ik t/m 18 februari weer eventjes terug in Singapore. De nieuwsbrief zal minder frequent en betrouwbaar verschijnen tijdens deze periode.
De afgelopen nieuwsbrieven bevatten nog wat bespiegelingen die mensen gemist kunnen hebben. Vandaag is Kantelpunt de meest interessante sectie. Daarnaast lijkt Taiwan nu weer slachtoffer van de trend om met de ankers van vrachtschepen onderzeese kabels kapot te maken. Ook is Rhodium weer gekomen met hun lagere schatting van de Chinese groeicijfers. Waar ze berekenden dat het Chinese BNP in 2023 met 1,5% i.p.v. de officiële 5,2% zou zijn gegroeid, zien ze in 2024 slechts 2,4–2,8% groei i.p.v. de officiële 4,8%. Voor 2025 voorspellen ze dan ook slechts 3,0–4,5%.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Deputy foreign minister Tien Chung-kwang 田中光 named new Taiwanese envoy to Netherlands, source says – Focus Taiwan: ‘A senior diplomat with four decades in the foreign service, Tien’s most recent overseas posting was as Taiwan’s top envoy to India from 2013 to 2020.’
‘The appointment of a former deputy foreign minister to the Netherlands reflected the high priority Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) has given to Taiwan’s cooperation with the Netherlands and the European Union as a whole, in particular in the semiconductor sector, the source said.’ 🇳🇱
Roundup: Blinken admits US sent arms to Ukraine ahead of conflict – Xinhua: ‘“Russia has been talking about this for many years,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova on Saturday in response to Blinken’s remarks, noting that they underscored “the rationale behind Russia’s objective on the demilitarization of Ukraine.”’ 🇺🇦
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 congratulates Mikheil Kavelashvili on assuming Georgian presidency – Xinhua: ‘Xi pointed out that the current China-Georgia strategic partnership has maintained a positive momentum of development.’ 🇬🇪
Handel 🚗⚡️
Noodlijdende elektrische bussenbouwer Ebusco snijdt in personeelsbestand – NRC 🇳🇱
Hoe kon het meest ambitieuze Europese accuproject Northvolt zo faliekant mislukken? Deze Zweedse topman zou dat moeten weten – de Volkskrant 🇸🇪🇪🇺
De Duitse economie krimpt, fabrieken sluiten. Het Duitse ‘zelfbeeld’ is niet houdbaar, zegt econoom Tordoir – NRC: „Intussen loopt Duitsland enorm veel risico op afbraak van de eigen industrie door China. Dus moet je via de EU doen wat je kunt om een gelijk speelveld te bewaken.” 🇩🇪
A looming election, unemployment edging higher and an automotive industry in crisis may not seem like a recipe for German corporate success this year, but a look at earnings projections tells a different story – Bloomberg 🇩🇪
Xinjiang’s Khorgos Port sees record China-Europe freight trains in 2024 – Xinhua 🇪🇺🇷🇺
China adds dairy capacity during a milk glut – Dim Sums: ‘addition of new capacity in an industry already suffering from excess capacity is directed by industrial policy to upgrade the industry and protect it from imports.’
Opinie: Tegenover het agressieve China heeft Europa een troef: de handel – Jan van der Putten in NRC 🇪🇺
Tech War 💽💥
ASML zet politiek zwaargewicht in: de kleurrijke Franse oud-minister Bruno Le Maire – de Volkskrant: „Bij ASML kunnen ze [zijn eerdere] ferme houding tegen de Amerikanen vermoedelijk wel waarderen” 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Symposium held to study Xi’s discourses on natural resources work – Xinhua
Intel’s problems are even worse than you’ve heard – WSJ: ‘The once-mighty American innovation powerhouse is losing market share in multiple areas that are critical to its profitability.’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan’s Foxconn beats estimates with record fourth-quarter revenue on AI demand –Reuters
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Watching China in Europe—January 2025 – Noah Barkin: ‘If instability, unreliability, and unchecked Muskian lunacy replaces US predictability, the foundations for transatlantic cooperation can quickly crumble.’
‘My sense is that 2025 will be the year in which the EU begins bending or reinterpreting international trade rules in pursuit of greater economic security.’
‘In capitals such as Paris and The Hague, there is a creeping recognition that the interconnected economic and security challenges that China presents will require new thinking.’ ‘Against this backdrop, Germany remains the biggest question mark.’ 🇪🇺
The massive ‘Typhoon’ cyberattacks on US infrastructure and telecoms sought to lay the groundwork for potential conflict with Beijing – WSJ: ‘the latest hacks make clear they are now soldiers on the front lines of potential geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and China, in which cyberwarfare tools are expected to be powerful weapons.’ 🇺🇸
Chinese hack of US telecoms compromised more firms than previously known, WSJ says – Reuters: ‘Hackers also exploited unpatched network devices from security vendor Fortinet and compromised large network routers from Cisco Systems (CSCO.O), the newspaper reported.’ 🇺🇸
Hackers got deep inside Guam’s internet and telecom systems, terrifying US officials – Bloomberg Businessweek: ‘US officials are increasingly alarmed that their first line of cyberdefense falls on institutions such as GPA and underresourced private companies, all of which can seem unable—or, at times, even unwilling—to confront the threat.’ 🇺🇸🇬🇺
Biden riskeert relatie met Japan door overname van US Steel door Nippon Steel 日本製鉄 te blokkeren – NRC 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Belangen China in Midden-Oosten onder druk door oorlog Gaza – BNR
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Antony Blinken: ‘China has been trying to have it both ways’ – FT: ‘Blinken stresses that Chinese groups are still providing Russia with critical materiel to help it rebuild its defence industry base.’
‘In his 2021 Senate confirmation hearing, he said China was committing “genocide” against the Uyghurs. Could the same conclusion not be drawn for the tens of thousands of innocent civilians in Gaza? Blinken simply says “No”.’ 🇺🇸
US sanctions China’s Integrity Technology over alleged hacking sweep – Reuters: ‘Western officials have previously been accused The Beijing-based company of being behind Flax Typhoon.’ 🇺🇸
India flags concern over China’s mega dam plan on Brahmaputra’s upper reaches – Hindustan Times 🇮🇳
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan to discuss Chinese dams in India visit – Reuters 🇮🇳🇺🇸
Malaysia Cabinet to deliberate way forward for stalled Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High-Speed Rail (HSR) project, but lack of funds still biggest snag – The Straits Times: ‘Unofficial overtures to the Chinese government for funding in 2024 were not successful, industry players say privately’ 🇲🇾🇸🇬
Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 to visit Namibia, Republic of the Congo, Chad, and Nigeria – Xinhua: ‘continuing the tradition of a Chinese foreign minister visiting Africa on the first overseas trip at the start of the year for 35 consecutive years’ 🇳🇦🇨🇬🇹🇩🇳🇬
Research centre on building community with shared future for mankind inaugurated at [foreign ministry’s] China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing – Xinhua: ‘Building a community with a shared future for mankind is a major original idea of Xi Jinping, […], and the core concept of Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy.’
China economie
After the fall: China’s economy in 2025 – Rhodium Group: ‘By our estimates, China’s GDP growth in 2024 improved modestly to around 2.4% to 2.8%, well below than official claims of nearly 5%.’
‘Economists associated with China Finance 40 Forum, a think tank, recently argued that consumer price index (CPI) growth over the past three years was around –2%, well below official figures.’
Op z’n minst zouden media een waarschuwing moeten geven bij het citeren van de officiële Chinese cijfers.
China’s central bank plans policy overhaul as pressure mounts on economy – FT: ‘the central bank has been struggling to implement its shift towards interest rates because the government wants to channel money to the high-tech and manufacturing sectors’
Calling all smartphone seekers: Chinese government to subsidise personal devices and expand trade-in push – SCMP: ‘nationwide consumer trade-in programme, funded by sovereign bonds’
Trouble in China’s shopping paradise as Hainan duty-free spending tumbles – Reuters
In Depth: China offers more choice to boost contributions to its pension system fix personal accounts – Caixin Global: ‘The major part of [state-run basic pension funds] is expected to run dry in the middle of the next decade’
Het Chinese pensioensysteem staat voor een echt heel grote uitdaging.
China’s overqualified youth taking jobs as drivers, labourers and film extras – BBC News: ‘China is churning out millions of university graduates every year but, in some fields, there just aren’t enough jobs for them.’
‘Degree worship’: China middle school sparks debate with elitist hiring policy – SCMP
Xi wil van China hightech-economie maken, maar Chinezen missen de opleiding – Nieuwsuur
Voor jongeren die niet willen of kunnen meedraaien in de keiharde Chinese werkcultuur biedt een kolenprijshuis uitkomst – de Volkskrant
Is China’s ‘peak coal’ claim just spouting emissions? –
: ‘In 2023, China burned more coal than the rest of the world combined — 56 percent to be precise.’ ‘Cheap coal, a chance to improve ties with Russia, and trusted ways to boost poor provincial economies have been too good to pass up.’Focusing on China’s carbon emissions misses the forest for the trees – David Fishman, LinkedIn: ‘When China’s energy needs rise 7%+ in a year, but coal-fired generation rises just 1%, we should see this as an indicator of how very close China is to finding the solution’
Een artikel met negatieve insteek naast een wel erg positieve correctie vormen samen een interessant debat.
How China is building more nuclear power than anyone else in the world – Bloomberg
China wil economische slagkracht westelijke regio’s verbeteren – ANP
China binnenland
China’s premier Lǐ Qiáng 李强 tells local authorities to give economy early boost in new year during Shandong visit – SCMP
De eerste inspectietours van het jaar dienen altijd om de focus aan te geven.
In less than 2 years, 14 of China’s military lawmakers have been ousted – SCMP: ‘a rate not seen for at least four decades, according to public records going back to 1983’
Chinese officials urged not to ignore public opinion and criticism – SCMP: ‘the publicity [i.e. propaganda] branch of the Communist Party in Zhejiang province’ ‘warned that it will be too late if complaints are ignored until they attract media coverage.’
China’s tech giants vow to fix algorithm issues amid government crackdown – SCMP: ‘amid a three-month official campaign launched late in November to address “typical issues with algorithms” on online platforms, including filter bubbles’
China’s State Council accelerates urban renewal efforts to create liveable and resilient cities – Xinhua: ‘with the rapid advancement of urbanization, issues such as inadequate underground pipe networks and poor urban planning are becoming more prominent.’
China market blaze kills eight, fifteen hurt – Reuters
China sets up new national sports arbitration centre – Reuters
China to formulate micro-drama management regulations to assure industry prosperity – The Global Times: ‘since most of the micro-dramas played on the short video platforms are commodities offering emotional value rather […] promoting positive values.’
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Foreign freighter being investigated for suspected damaging of undersea cable off Taiwan’s northeastern coast – Focus Taiwan: ‘the Cameroon-registered “Shunxin39” freighter’
Taiwan asks South Korea for help over Chinese ship after subsea cable damaged – FT: ‘Taiwan officials said it was owned by Jie Yang Trading Limited. The Hong Kong-registered company’s only listed director is Guo Wenjie, a mainland China citizen.’
‘the damaged cable is part of the Trans-Pacific Express Cable System.’ 🇨🇳
China’s top Taiwan Affairs official Sòng Tāo 宋涛 stresses promoting cross-Strait ties in meeting Taitung County head Yao Ching-ling 饒慶鈴 (KMT) – Xinhua 🇨🇳
China ‘offering benefits’ to KMT local government, academics say – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
‘Thousands’ Chinese ID cards are an ‘illusion’ by Beijing, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council says – Taipei Times: ‘Over the past 10 years, 679 Taiwanese have had their household registration papers, ID cards and passports invalidated after they obtained a Chinese passport or household registration’
‘The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) caucus has accused the government of stripping 300,000 Chinese spouses of their political participation rights and unconstitutionally enforcing a new “two-state theory.”
All people from China are also nationals of Taiwan, KMT Legislator Weng Hsiao-ling (翁曉玲) said.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan’s National Security Bureau calls out Chinese cognitive warfare tactics – Taipei Times: ‘Facebook remained the platform most susceptible to hosting such disinformation’ 🇨🇳
Chinese disinformation campaign alleges Taiwan is paying bribes for US support – Yang Kuang-shun for The Diplomat: ‘Pro-Beijing Taiwanese politicians are also commonly cited in Chinese media.’ 🇨🇳
Trump ‘right’ on Taiwan military spending, ruling DPP heavyweight Lee Wen-chung says – Nikkei Asia: ‘head of the Taiwan defense ministry’s official think tank’
China en oppositiepartij KMT zullen dit vooral gebruiken om de DPP-regering aan te vallen met claims dat Washington om protection money vraagt.
Taiwan binnenland en economie
TPP to rally in support of detained ex-chair Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 – Focus Taiwan: ‘Huang, without providing evidence, accused the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of interfering with judicial and prosecutorial matters’
‘Eric Chu (朱立倫), chairman of the main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), said in a social media post that he would “give his full support” to those expressing their discontent with the DPP on Jan. 11, […].
Chu also blamed the DPP for the Constitutional Court’s recent decisions to put restrictions on the use of the death penalty and to revoke a bulk of the KMT-endorsed measures’
DPP caucus declares Han Kuo-yu 韓國瑜 (KMT) ‘unfit’ to lead legislature, proposes Speaker revote – Taipei Times: ‘Han on Friday last week delayed the submission of the other two bills at the written request of two Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) committee conveners, the DPP said.’
聯合報社論／綠色詭計被破，民進黨發動民主內戰？ – 聯合報
聯合報黑白集／老柯的垃圾時間 – 聯合報
Hoofdredactioneel commentaar in pro-KMT krant UDN beschuldigt de DPP van het vertrappen van de democratie met haar autoritarisme. Vast katern ‘Zwart-Wit-serie’ 黑白集 – een katern dat al sinds 1952, tijdens de militaire dictatuur, de DPP en vrienden aanvalt met een toon en manier die nog steeds doen herinneren aan CCP-woordvoerders – valt DPP-fractieleider en gevestigde regelneef Ker Chien-ming aan op zijn lange tijd op het pluche en onkunde bij het omgaan met tegenslagen.
Senior DPP lawmaker Ker Chien-ming 柯建銘 calls for mass ousting of KMT lawmakers – Focus Taiwan: ‘It is also unclear whether the DPP whip's calls signal the party’s plans to get involved in some of the ongoing petitions’
KMT lawmaker Wang Hung-wei 王鴻薇 says party may retaliate if DPP launches recall campaigns – Focus Taiwan: ‘The DPP, however, quickly distanced itself from Ker’s proposal’
DPP-fractieleider Ker Chien-ming zegt in boze reactie op UDN dat niet alleen parlementsvoorzitter Han Kuo-yu en vicevoorzitter Johnny Chiang (beide KMT) moeten worden herroepen, maar dat er ook herroepingsverkiezingen moeten komen voor alle 41 KMT-kiesdistrictsparlementsleden (partijlijst-leden kunnen niet herroepen worden).
De politieke strijd escaleert. Maar de UDN heeft gelijk dat de DPP een minderheid heeft. Nu zet spelmaker TPP vol de aanval in op de DPP en President Lai vanwege de corruptievervolging van oprichter Ko Wen-je. DPP’er Ker lijkt ook vooral voor zichzelf te spreken. Zet je camera maar vast klaar voor meer gevechten in het parlement.
More than 5,200 victims of injustice during authoritarian rule exonerated – Taipei Times: ‘The exonerated people included Cheng Tzu-tsai (鄭自才), an architect and dissident who was part of a conspiracy in 1970 to assassinate then-vice premier Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國).’
Education ministry mulls cellphone ban at schools – Taipei Times