De Chinese Wouden, maandag 4 september: G20
Xi Jinping gaat echt niet naar de G20 in India. Hieraan gekoppeld is berichtgeving over betrokken functionarissen die klagen dat Peking al tijden lang pogingen frustreert om succesvol tot een gezamenlijke verklaring te komen. Het lijkt erop dat Xi wil dat de top in India mislukt.
Tegelijkertijd heeft Nikkei Asia een goed artikel over de groeiende ideologie in Chinese staatsbedrijven. Onderdeel van het groeiende aantal studie-uren van het gedachtegoed van Xi zijn blijkbaar aanvallen op ‘Westers’ economisch denken. Bij het voorspellen van de Chinese maatregelen om de economische situatie te verbeteren kunnen we dus een anti-Westerse insteek verwachten.
Bij Bloomberg hebben ze een interessante Big Take over de manier waarop de schellen van de ogen zijn gevallen in de Verenigde Staten en Europa over de structurele staat van de Chinese economie. Ik vraag me af hoe andere voorspellingen over het traject van China’s toekomst gaan doorwerken in westers buitenlandbeleid, en hoe houdbaar deze nieuwe voorspellingen zullen blijken.
We hebben nu ook een mooie grafiek met de peilingen van alle vier waarschijnlijke kandidaten in de Taiwanese presidentsverkiezingen. Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) is donkergroen. Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) is turquoise. Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 (KMT) is donkerblauw. Terry Gou 郭台銘 is geel.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Dutch cozy up to US with controls on exporting microchip kit to China – POLITICO Europe 🇳🇱
POLITICO schrijft op wat Laurens Dassen (Volt) zegt zonder het te controleren. Eerder al publiceerde Volt Nederland een raar stuk over de kwestie dat feitelijke onjuistheden bevatte.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani heads to China to discuss the possibility of leaving the Belt and Road Initiative – Bloomberg 🇮🇹
Italië niet tevreden over handel met China op Nieuwe Zijderoute – NU.nl 🇮🇹
Chinese lenders extend billions of dollars to Russian banks after western sanctions – FT
Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu 吳釗燮 pledges continuing support for Ukraine at global lawmakers’ IPAC summit – Focus Taiwan 🇺🇦
G20 🏔️🇮🇳
Chinese President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 to skip G20 summit in Delhi – PTI
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s absence challenges G20 status as global leadership forum – FT: ‘“They have been working to scupper our joint work all year,” the [Western] official said. “Not attending is the obvious step.”’
China adopts ‘obstructive’ tactics at G20 ministerial meetings – The Times of India
If China once seemed on an inevitable path to overtaking a declining America as the world’s leading economic power, that’s no longer the case — and the G7 is taking full advantage of it – Bloomberg
Goed overzicht van de manier waarom de economische uitdagingen het denken over China in VS en Europa nu al aan het veranderen zijn.
Tech War 💽💥
China planning ‘innovative’ export controls as trade tensions with US rumble on – SCMP
China’s battery plant rush raises fears of global squeeze – FT: ‘China is building battery plants far beyond levels needed to meet domestic demand for electric cars and grid energy storage, underlining vast state subsidies and unchecked bank lending that are expected to underpin the international expansion of Chinese manufacturers.’
Mystery around China’s new science and tech body a sign of secrecy to come, analysts say – SCMP
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
China state companies step up study of ‘Xi Thought’ in hard times – Nikkei Asia: ‘The executive added that overseas colleagues were finding it difficult to meet with some teammates in Beijing, as the latter were busy with organized activities designed to “strengthen the party’s political base.”’
‘Insiders say Chinese Communist Party members, and even some nonmembers in state-affiliated institutions, are being herded into workday study sessions on Xi’s ideology, where they also engage in self-criticism — including critiquing pro-Western economic thoughts — and share their reflections.’
China to Its People: Spies Are Everywhere, Help Us Catch Them – The New York Times: ‘Beijing has not issued any clear directives about contact with foreigners; it maintains that China remains open, lauding the importance of foreign investment. But the signals are contradictory.’
Philippine, Kenyan, and Paraguayan lawmakers join global parliamentary alliance for China containment IPAC – Nikkei Asia
Taiwanese firms in China’s richest county Kunshan are all the buzz – will they stay or will they go? – SCMP: ‘multiple businessmen confirmed that people are leaving, and others are at least exploring business opportunities outside not only the city but also the country.’
Voor wie wil weten hoe essentieel deze Taiwanese bedrijven waren voor de economische groei van China, lees Shelley Riggers laatste boek. Nu vertrekken ze om drie redenen: spanningen tussen China en Taiwan, economische strijd tussen China en de VS, en de economische ontwikkelingen in China zelf.
Defence giants’ BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin Asian headquarters relocation to Japan reinforces Tokyo’s commitment to keep the peace in Taiwan Strait – SCMP
Japan zal ook wat meer aan defensie besteden dan wat BAE in Maleisië kan binnenhalen.
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Paus richt zich in Mongolië tot buurland China – Trouw
Pope Francis offers apparent gesture to China during visit to Mongolia – AFP
In overture to China, pope sends greetings to a ‘noble’ people – Reuters
US-China ties avoid free-fall, but recent talks show the future will not be problem-free – SCMP
US officials are streaming to China. Will Beijing return the favour? – The New York Times
Raimondo warns China patience of US business is ‘wearing thin’ – Reuters
Chinese foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 tells South Korean counterpart Park Jin 朴振 not to allow ‘third party’ interference and refrain from ideological confrontations – SCMP
China and South Korea seek to reboot trilateral talks with Japan – Nikkei Asia
China’s Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 warns Southeast Asian countries ‘external forces’ are trying to ‘sow discord’ in region – SCMP: ‘must avoid repeating the “tragedy” of the war in Ukraine’
M.a.w.: de Verenigde Staten hebben de ‘crisis’ in Oekraïne veroorzaakt en zouden nu dreigen hetzelfde te doen in de Zuid-Chinese Zee.
Philippines to cease sending cadets to China over South China Sea frictions – The Diplomat
Omvangrijke boycot van Japanse vis door China gaat over veel meer dan lozingen van radioactief afvalwater – de Volkskrant
Japan steps up response to China’s criticisms over Fukushima water release – The Yomiuri Shimbun
Across China: New evidence of Japanese germ warfare unit made public – Xinhua
Nuclear and radiation outpatient clinic opens in China’s Guangzhou – The Global Times
China’s shipment of ‘replica’ guns for Solomon Islands likely real, US cable claimed – Al Jazeera
Russia’s Putin says he will meet China’s Xi soon – Reuters
President Santokhi stuurt minister Ramdin naar China voor schuldherschikking – Dagblad Suriname
UN envoys tour Tibet on China-organised trip amid rights scrutiny – Reuters
Xinjiang party chief meets UN labour group as China seeks to confront forced labour claims – SCMP
China is binnenkort weer aan de beurt bij de VN, dus Peking begint al voor te bereiden.
‘Long overdue’: China’s new Foreign State Immunity Law will align it with Western practices – SCMP
China economie
Eerst was China de motor van de wereldeconomie, nu is het vooral een risico – NRC
Zonder uitzicht op werk gaan Chinese jongeren liever ‘platliggen’ – NRC
China’s economic stimulus gathers pace with consumption and property moves, but more needed for drastic reversal – SCMP
China’s economy could rebound in second half, ex-PBOC official says – Yicai Global
China frees up banks’ foreign exchange reserves to boost renminbi – FT
Tourists’ slow return to China post-Covid causing headaches for travel industry – SCMP
Malaysia’s Forest City teeters over China property giant Country Garden 碧桂园 woes – AFP
China binnenland
As China braces for Super Typhoon Saola, Guangdong party boss calls for ‘near-war state’ to combat storm – SCMP
Typhoon Saola makes landfall in southern China but appears to cause only light damage – AP
China jails economics professor Yáng Shàozhèng 杨绍政 who highlighted government’s personnel costs – RFA
Chinese LGBTQ organisations find creative ways to survive crackdown and closures – SCMP
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwanese troops joined US National Guard drills in Michigan, Japanese press reports – Taipei Times
Defence ministry hikes budget for military interactions linked to the US – Taipei Times
Taiwan to invest NT$130.6bn [€3.8b] in military R&D – Taipei Times: ‘allocate NT$19.2 billion [€559m] to research and develop distributed command and control systems and a myriad of uncrewed aerial vehicles, as these systems have proven to be crucial in Russia’s war in Ukraine’
Taiwan ramps up development of anti-drone systems as PLA security threats grow – SCMP
US to act if Taiwan attacked, visiting US Representative Rob Wittman claims – Taipei Times
Taiwan verkiezingen
No sign of Terry Gou 郭台銘-led opposition alliance – Taipei Times
Terry Gou 郭台銘 resigns from Hon Hai (Foxconn) board of directors – Focus Taiwan
From popular mayor to ho-hum candidate, KMT’s Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 struggles to gain traction – Focus Taiwan
Dissecting Ko Wen-je 柯文哲: Why young people seem to favour the TPP presidential candidate – Focus Taiwan
KMT demands investigation on egg importer – Taipei Times: ‘asked whether members of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were behind the company.’
Taiwan binnenland
Tyfoon Haikui bereikt Taiwan: bijna 4000 mensen geëvacueerd – AD
35,000 still without power after Typhoon Haikui topples trees and utility poles – Focus Taiwan
As Taiwan’s government races to counter China, most people aren’t worried about war – AP
De cijfers logenstraffen de op anecdotes gebaseerde claim van AP. Een meerderheid van Taiwanezen maakt zich wel degelijk zorgen.
Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation shows 48.9% support obtaining formal independence – Taipei Times
NB: TPOF heeft bepaalde politieke links. Het totale percentage is bereikt door ook wensen voor de lange termijn mee te nemen. Het klopt dat andere peilingen over hypothetische scenario’s ook steun voor onafhankelijkheid laat zien. Maar de meest betrouwbare peilingen komen nog altijd van de NCCU ESC en die zijn wel wat meer getemperd.