De Chinese Wouden, maandag 3 maart: klaar voor de Twee Zittingen?
Zoals vrijdag gezegd beginnen deze week de Twee Zittingen. Morgen opent de CPPCC, woensdag de NPC – het eigenlijke parlement. Scroll door naar de sectie met een overzichtje uit The Economist over de globale indicatoren om het meest naar uit te kijken. Voor de meer complexere beleidsrichtingen zul je toch de teksten moeten doorworstelen. Helaas. De papierbergen zijn al in productie. Belangrijkst zal het werkrapport van de premier zijn op woensdag.
Het Politburo kwam vrijdag bijeen voor de laatste vergadering voor de Twee Zittingen. De prioriteiten die het besprak kwamen overeen met de recente eerdere opmerkingen van Xi en de uitkomsten van de Centrale Conferentie voor Economisch Werk (CEWC) van afgelopen december. De beleidsconsequenties van het werkrapport van de premier interpreteren is altijd een spel van vergelijken met de oude werkrapporten van voorgaande jaren. Pak deze keer de CEWC er ook maar bij om te zien of er nog maatregelen bij zijn gekomen.
Het Politburo bevestigde weer de dialectiek tussen stabiliteit en vooruitgang. Dit is ook het laatste jaar van het 14e vijfjarenplan. Krijgen we naast een vijfjarenplan ook een opvolger voor het succesvolle tienjarige ‘Made in China 2025’? We zullen nog moeten wachten tot het Centraal Comité van oktober, maar traditiegetrouw zal de schrijfgroep nu worden samengesteld.
Daarnaast legde de vergadering de nadruk op de integratie van ontwikkeling en veiligheid, het belang van binnenlandse vraag en actiever macrobeleid, de stabiliteit van vastgoed en aandelenmarkt, de technologische en industriële innovatie en het omgaan met schokken van buiten.
De nadruk op veiligheid volgde ook uit het feit dat diezelfde middag het Politburo een studiesessie hield over staatsveiligheid en openbare orde. De economische uitdagingen moeten worden opgelost – daar kijken we naar uit bij de Twee Zittingen. Bovenaan de startpagina van staatspersbureau Xinhua staat een citaat waarin Xi Jinping zegt privébedrijven altijd gesteund te hebben. Tegelijkertijd moet de politieke basis ook gezekerd worden in deze tijden. De pijn van de transitie op de vastgoedmarkt, bijvoorbeeld, hoort erbij, maar zou wel ‘tijdelijke’ lokale spanningen kunnen veroorzaken.
Xi had ook nog tijd om zich met de geopolitiek bezig te houden. Terwijl Trump en Vance een excuus zochten om Zelensky aan te vallen nu sommige in hun omgeving Oekraïne willen laten vallen, trof Xi Jinping de bezoekende voormalige Russische defensieminister Sergej Sjojgoe. Volgens SCMP brengen Chinese diplomaten ondertussen expliciet de boodschap aan Europa dat ‘beste vriend’ Verenigde Staten ons verlaten heeft.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Minder studenten naar China: „Het sentiment is heel erg veranderd” – NRC
Schriftelijke vragen: De geheime deportatie van 48 Oeigoeren naar China door de regering van Thailand – Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal
Your best friend has abandoned you: inside China’s latest EU charm offensive – SCMP: ‘The message was transmitted, either in this language or similar terms, over recent weeks in Brussels, Dublin, Munich and Paris, according to people present at or briefed on the meetings’ 🇪🇺
China and Russia are ‘true friends tempered by fire’, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells Kremlin aide – SCMP: ‘Russia has said that Xi will visit Russia in May to attend its commemorations to mark the end of World War II in Europe. Putin has also invited Trump’ 🇷🇺
China and Russia should strengthen coordination in international affairs, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells visiting Sergei Shoigu – Reuters: ‘In a separate meeting on Friday with Shoigu, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Sino-Russia relations would remain “rock-solid and unshakable”, a statement from the Chinese foreign ministry said.’ 🇷🇺
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 meets Russian Federation Security Council secretary Sergei Shoigu – Xinhua: ‘The relations between Russia and China have reached an unprecedented high level and do not target any third party, Shoigu said.’ 🇷🇺
Chinese top diplomat Wáng Yì 王毅 holds strategic dialogue with Russia’s Shoigu in Beijing – Xinhua 🇷🇺
China said to be planning military parade for WWII anniversary, with Putin to attend – SCMP: ‘Putin will travel to Beijing for the parade, which will commemorate the September 3 anniversary, a source with knowledge of the matter said. […] he would also take part in the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit’ 🇷🇺
UK neighbours offered a bounty to turn in a Hong Kong pro-democracy activist to Chinese officials – NBC News: ‘The “wanted” posters were sent by mail, arriving at the homes of Carmen Lau’s neighbors in the town of Maidenhead.’ 🇬🇧
Taiwan and Finland regulators ink air service deal – Taipei Times 🇫🇮
Twee Zittingen
This week is a moment of truth for Xi Jinping on deflation – The Economist: ‘Mr Li will probably announce a growth target for 2025 of about 5%, the same as last year. Anything less than that will be greeted with dismay by the financial markets.’
‘Mr Li will also reveal a target for this year’s headline budget deficit. With luck, it will rise from 3% of gdp last year to 4% this year.’
‘On top of the headline deficit, the central government will also sell another batch of long-term bonds.’
‘The scale of stimulus is not the only thing to watch; style matters as well as size. The hope is that instead of lavishing money on bridges to nowhere and other white elephants, more of the money can be channelled to households.’
Xi prepares to unveil China stimulus plan as trade war heats up – Bloomberg: ‘policymakers are expected to push China’s official budget deficit target to the highest in over three decades’
Critical moments, key junctures: Xi urges head-on approach as external threats mount – SCMP: ‘the readout served more as a reiteration of the previous policy trajectory outlined during the central economic work conference in December.’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 chairs CCP leadership meeting to discuss draft government work report – Xinhua: ‘The meeting said it is necessary to follow the arrangements made at the Central Economic Work Conference, adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability [坚持稳中求进工作总基调], as well as fully and accurately implement the new development philosophy on all fronts.’
Herhaling van de eerdere opmerking van Xi voor het Centraal Comité, die de ‘vooruitgang in stabiliteit’-contradictie-synthese van de CEWC aanhaalt.
‘It is also essential to accelerate the forging of a new pattern of development […]’
‘Efforts should be made to implement more proactive and impactful macro policies, expand domestic demand, promote the integrated development of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, stabilize the real estate and stock markets, prevent and defuse risks in key areas and external shocks, stabilize expectations and stimulate vitality.’
Safeguarding China’s regime is the top priority, Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 tells Politburo – SCMP
Xi Jinping stresses advancing Peaceful China Initiative to higher level – Xinhua: ‘while presiding over a group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on Friday.’
习近平在中共中央政治局第十九次集体学习时强调 坚定不移贯彻总体国家安全观 把平安中国建设推向更高水平 – 新华网：“要加强正面宣传和舆论引导，注重运用现代科技手段提高社会治理效能。”
Studiesessie en vergadering op één dag. De studiesessie betrof staatsveiligheid en openbare orde – d.w.z. de veiligheid van het politieke systeem en voorkomen van ontevredenheid/incidenten. Veiligheid en (economische) ontwikkeling zijn volgens Xi met elkaar verbonden, wat het Politburo ook al benadrukte bij de vergadering.
Xinhua Commentary: China’s ‘Two Sessions’ to offer clear policy signals for high-quality development – Xinhua: ‘As a priority, domestic demand will be expanded comprehensively.’
‘The private sector, in particular, is expected to gain more momentum in its healthy, high-quality development.’
‘Fresh efforts are expected to develop new quality productive forces through scientific and technological innovation.’
‘Amid rising global trade protectionism, China remains committed to expanding its high-standard opening up.’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s article on properly handling key relationships in economic work to be published – Xinhua: ‘It is essential to coordinate the relationship between an efficient market and a well-functioning government, and the government must act decisively when necessary while also knowing when to refrain from intervention, according to the article.’
习近平：经济工作必须统筹好几对重要关系 – 《求是》2025/05
Military delegates lose sway at China’s signature political gathering – FT: ‘a greater reduction in size than any other provincial delegation, government or industry segment represented in the NPC and an advisory body’
‘removal of military personnel from the NPC and CPPCC due to anti-corruption investigations’
First volume of selected works of Xi Jinping on economy published – Xinhua
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📊💥
Trump’s tariff onslaught is coming faster than his team can carry out – WSJ: ‘All those announcements are creating a bottleneck at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Commerce Department’ ‘So far, only the China tariffs are in place’ 🇺🇸
Mexico has proposed matching US tariffs on China, US treasury secretary Bessent says – Reuters 🇲🇽
China’s small exporters look for plan B as Trump quashes trade loophole – FT: ‘the US still plans to halt de minimis as soon as “adequate systems” are in place to screen and tax the millions of packages that arrive in the country each day.’
China welcomes US companies to share development opportunities, vice premier Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 says – Xinhua 🇺🇸
China’s public security ministry firmly opposes US threat of additional tariff hike – Xinhua 🇺🇸
US port fees on China vessels would affect all shipping firms, France’s CMA CGM says – Reuters: ‘“China builds more than half of all container ships in the world, so this would have a significant effect on all shipping firms,” Chief Financial Officer Ramon Fernandez told reporters.’ 🇺🇸
Techoorlog 💽💥
Leuk idee, Europese ict. Maar het is heel comfortabel in de Amerikaanse cloud – NRC 🇪🇺🇺🇸
16 april 2024: Nederland en de EU: Zet in op cloudsoevereiniteit – Maaike Okano-Heijmans voor Clingendael 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Is de Franse app Le Chat het Europese AI-alternatief? – NRC 🇫🇷🇪🇺
Afrekenen in de EU gaat vooral via aanbieders uit de VS – NRC 🇪🇺
DeepSeek 深度求索 AI mania takes over China — from prescriptions to parenting and government work – SCMP: ‘But the shift has also triggered mixed feelings – especially over the possibility of AI’s involvement in medical decisions.’
China tells its AI leaders to avoid US travel over security concerns – WSJ: ‘People in the tech industry said there was no outright ban on travel but rather guidance from authorities in China’s biggest technology hubs’ 🇺🇸
China’s Honor 荣耀 announces US$10 billion investment in AI devices – Reuters
IBM shuts China research arm after lay-offs and revenue decline – SCMP: ‘IBM (China) Investment was established in 1992’ 🇺🇸
US businessman pleads guilty to trying to export sensitive tech to China without a licence – SCMP 🇺🇸
China last year committed more resources than ever to mining abroad as part of Xi Jinping’s global infrastructure program, a new study found – Bloomberg: ‘reached over $21 billion under Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative’
Elektrische auto’s
China’s share of European electric-car sales was little changed again in January, with brands struggling to make inroads since the EU imposed additional tariffs – Bloomberg: ‘Their overall share has plateaued at between 7.5% and 8.5% for the past six months, following several years of rapid gains.’ 🇪🇺
BYD 比亚迪 wants to build a third factory in Europe to expand in the region that’s hiked tariffs on electric-vehicle imports from China – Bloomberg: ‘A decision on a possible location may come in the next year and a half’ 🇪🇺
Met een gigafabriek opent autoland Slowakije de deur voor China – NRC: „Net als Hongarije zet Slowakije in op de bouw van batterijfabrieken met de hulp van China.” 🇸🇰
De Friese VVD-boer die de benzineauto uit Europa verdreef – of toch niet? – NRC 🇪🇺
China mandates regulatory approvals for autonomous driving software upgrades – Reuters
Trump 🇺🇸🟠
Transcript: Zelensky’s Oval Office meeting with Trump and Vance becomes a literal shouting match – Meduza 🇺🇦🇺🇸
‘Free world needs a new leader’: Europe defends Zelenskyy after Trump attack – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Explainer: How did Trump and Zelensky engage in shouting match at White House? – Xinhua
China’s media plays up Russian response to Trump-Zelensky White House clash – SCMP: ‘CCTV quoted Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as saying that Trump showed “restraint” by not hitting Zelensky’
‘America is going down’: China can capitalise on damage caused by Trump, former PLA colonel Zhou Bo says – The Guardian
Kritiek online op onkritische introductie van bijdrage van vaste ‘barbarian handler’ Zhou Bo door The Guardian in dit stuk, maar wel nuttig om te zien wat bepaalde Chinezen willen dat wij in Europa horen.
Taiwan Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun 鄭麗君 vowed to boost the archipelago’s defence capabilities including through developing its own military drones – Bloomberg: ‘“Taiwan has been paying very close attention to the developments in Ukraine,” Cheng told Bloomberg TV’ 🇹🇼🇺🇸
Trump-Zelensky exchange should be watched carefully in Taiwan – New Bloom 🇹🇼🇺🇸
The Blue Sky and Canned Sun: The atom bomb and Taiwanese sovereignty in the age of American retreat – History Does You
Exclusive: US intel shows Russia and China are attempting to recruit disgruntled federal employees, sources say – CNN: ‘foreign adversaries are eager to exploit the Trump administration’s efforts to conduct mass layoffs across the federal workforce’ 🇺🇸
SEC halts fraud prosecution of Chinese national who sent Trump millions – Popular Information 🇺🇸
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China secretly alerted Papau New Guinea of warship exercises weeks in advance as ‘courtesy’ while keeping Australia in the dark – Sky News 🇦🇺
No reason for China to apologise to Australia for live-fire drills, ambassador says – The Guardian 🇦🇺
Taiwan reaches out as China shrugs at Tasman navy drill – The Canberra Times 🇦🇺
ByteDance 字节跳动’s TikTok to invest US$8.8 billion in Thailand over five years – AFP 🇹🇭
Thousands of Chinese nationals held in Myanmar scam centres to be repatriated, Thailand says – AFP: ‘Some 5,000 Chinese nationals will be sent home at a rate of 1,000 a week, starting next week, Thai foreign ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura told reporters.’
‘The United Nations estimates that as many as 120,000 people — many of them Chinese men — may be working in Myanmar scam centres against their will.’ 🇹🇭🇲🇲
Het is nog maar de vraag of deze Chinese staatsburgers bij terugkeer behandeld zullen worden als slachtoffers of daders.
Chinese military patrols Scarborough Shoal amid rising tension – RFA: ‘Scarborough Shoal, known in the Philippines as Bajo de Masinloc, has served as a traditional fishing ground for generations of local fishermen. It lies well inside Manila’s exclusive economic zone’ 🇵🇭
US think tank Pacific Economics warns of Chinese transnational crime syndicates in Palau – Focus Taiwan: ‘One of the crime syndicates is the Prince Group, a Chinese-Cambodian conglomerate founded by Chinese businessman Chen Zhi (陳志), the report said.’ 🇵🇼
Presidentiële werkgroep: „Afketsen deal met Chinalco is verlies voor Suriname” – Suriname Herald 🇸🇷
Is China’s growing Zimbabwe alliance key to its bigger plans for southern Africa? –SCMP 🇿🇼
How Chinese firms are holding out hope for South Sudan’s oil lifeline – SMCP 🇸🇸
Taliban rejects Trump’s claims about Chinese presence at former US airfield – SCMP 🇦🇫
China zal voor het eerst buitenlandse astronaut meenemen op ruimtemissie – NU.nl 🇵🇰
China amends military regulations to emphasise the need for war readiness – SCMP: ‘The change is part of Beijing’s efforts to refine and enhance its legal framework and regulations’
Chinese military unveils new data unit to help naval commanders make decisions – SCMP
China economie
China February manufacturing hits 3-month high according to official factory survey, but US tariff war clouds outlook – Reuters
China’s residential sales grew slightly in February, in a sign that the real estate market is stabilising with continued policy support – Bloomberg: ‘Investors are now awaiting next week’s National People’s Congress, an annual legislative meeting’
China’s billion-ton steel industry is edging toward its biggest shake-up in a decade, with speculation growing that Beijing will order plant closures – Bloomberg
China’s top coal groups have called for companies in the sector to adjust their production to prevent ‘severe’ oversupply amid falling prices – Bloomberg
Fact Check: What Western media get wrong about China’s economy – Xinhua
Fact Check: Western media’s skepticism toward China’s visa-free policy is misplaced – Xinhua
China binnenland
China’s tech minister Jīn Zhuànglóng 金壮龙 removed from office – FT: ‘four people familiar with the matter said they believed Jin was the subject of a graft-related probe.’ ‘Jin Zhuanglong has been absent from important government gatherings since the end of December’
In Depth: Chinese local governments foresee heightened fiscal pressure in 2025 – Caixin Global
At least 11 dead after Chinese river ferry hit by larger vessel – SCMP
Understanding China’s huge fisheries law overhaul – Dialogue Earth
Hong Kong
In Hongkong lijkt één land, twee systemen voorbij – Trouw
Former senior US diplomat Kurt Campbell to address American and Hong Kong business leaders – SCMP: ‘will speak at the AmCham Hong Kong China Conference on April 24’ 🇺🇸
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
【双语】国防部正告民进党当局：早晚要来收了你们 – “国防部发布”微信公众号：“正告民进党当局：螳臂当车只能自取灭亡，早晚要来收了你们。” ‘We warn the DPP authorities that holding back the tide with a broom will only end up in self-destruction. We will come and get you, sooner or later.’
Afgelopen vrijdag schreef ik al over de vergadering onder Wang Huning. Naast die nieuwe frase over het creëren van de juiste situatie merkten mensen ook op dat een normaal gebruikelijke opmerking over vreedzame weg was.
Ondertussen had ik ook een opmerking van het Chinese ministerie van defensie gedeeld tussen een lijst PLA-agressie. Nu plaats ik hem toch weer opnieuw, omdat de opmerking „we komen jullie vroeg of laat halen” toch ook wel weer een escalatie is.
?Klopt dit? Bovendien komt de staatstelevisie CCTV nu ook weer met een plaatje op sociale media voor hereniging. Eerst was het altijd 当归 nu is het 统一. China zal deze periode van mondiale instabiliteit willen benutten om verdere stappen te zetten op het gebied van annexatie. ??
China-owned ship that allegedly snapped cable used Taiwan ports for months – Taipei Times: ‘had docked at the ports of Kaohsiung and Keelung for three months using different names.’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan’s education ministry bans exchanges with 7 Chinese defence universities over security concerns – Focus Taiwan: ‘The seven Chinese universities under MIIT are known as “the national defense seven,” Cheng said’ 🇨🇳
Japan MSDF destroyer sailed Taiwan Strait in February, 1st since September – Kyodo News 🇯🇵
中國將楊智淵、富察列重大危安案件 陸委會：被當宣傳案例 – 中央社：「梁文傑表示，從中國大陸最高檢發布新聞稿來看，楊智淵、富察被當成指標性案例宣傳，楊智淵已經被判刑，若照這樣的宣傳口徑來看，富察恐也會被判刑；」 🇨🇳
Taiwan binnenland en economie
China the primary threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy, President Lai says – Focus Taiwan: ‘at an event in Taipei commemorating the [28 February] incident.’ 🇨🇳
President Lai apologises, makes pledge on 228 archives – Taipei Times: ‘Speaking of the 228 Incident, Lai said the tragedy was not triggered by ethnic conflicts, nor do those who commemorate the event 78 years later seek to provoke them.’
Verwijzing naar de KMT.
KMT’s recall campaign signatures had names of nearly 1,000 deceased persons – Taipei Times: ‘nine proposals seeking to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers have “not yet met the proposal threshold”’
Taiwanese government mulls stricter citizenship rules – Taipei Times: ‘removing an optional path to citizenship for residents from Hong Kong and Macau, and lengthening the terms for permanent residence eligibility’
DPP lawmakers propose Nationality Act changes – Taipei Times
Cabinet amending rules to boost parental leave – Taipei Times