De Chinese Wouden, maandag 28 april: Politburo, Chinese ontheffingen, Trumps fantoomgesprekken
De eerdere geruchten over Chinese opschorting van invoerheffingen op halfgeleiderproducten zijn bevestigd door verslaggeving van Caijing en Reuters. De onmiddellijke censuur van het artikel van Caijing illustreert, dat dit niet past bij het Chinese propagandaoffensief. Dat is een verhaal van onwrikbaarheid en voorbereiding. De economische impact op China van de Amerikaanse heffingen en Pekings eigen vergelding is echter niet niks.
Die economische impact was het onderwerp van de maandelijkse vergadering afgelopen vrijdag van het Politburo, de top van de Partij. De nadruk op ‘worst-case scenario/bottom-line thinking’ en buitenlandse schokken maakt duidelijk dat er reële zorgen zijn over wat het oorspronkelijke Chinees de ‘internationale economische en handelsstrijd’ noemt.
Xi vertelt het Politburo dat hoogwaardige industrie een belangrijk antwoord is op de economische uitdagingen – de studiesessie na afloop was dan ook over kunstmatige intelligentie en de noodzaak alles daarvoor zelf te kunnen. (Uitzondering van de importheffingen voor de essentiële buitenlandse onderdelen helpen dan ook!)
De verwarring in Washington blijft ondertussen groot. Trump herhaalde zijn claim dat Xi gebeld zou hebben en dat Peking en Washington vooruitgang boeken. Niet alleen de Chinese ambassade kwam met gepikeerde ontkenning, ook zijn eigen minister Bessent wil deze fantoomgesprekken niet bevestigen.
Eerder lazen we al over rust in de havens en fabrieken van China. Nu bereiken de eerste golven de haven van Los Angeles. Boekingen schieten omlaag. Vrachtwagenchauffeurs hebben geen containers meer. Deze olievlek van stilvallen gaat zich langzaam uitbreiden. De eerste echte gevolgen van de heffingen worden nu pas zichtbaar. De verstoringen en containertekorten na de pandemielockdowns zijn een voorbeeld van wat komen gaat.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Convocatie rondetafelgesprek Aanpak pakketstroom China op 22 mei 2025 – Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal 🇳🇱
China’s data protection rules concerns prompt pause from major European research funders – Reuters: ‘Three European funding agencies – the German Research Foundation, Swedish Research Council and Swiss National Science Foundation – told Reuters that they had not offered new co-funding for projects with the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) since 2021, the year the law took effect.’ 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇸🇪🇨🇭
Ex-Vice President Chen Chien-jen 陳建仁 (DPP) greets Joe Biden and Japan’s foreign minister at Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome – Focus Taiwan 🇻🇦
Pirelli set to declare end of Chinese investor Sinochem 中化集团’s control over governance, paper says – Reuters 🇮🇹
Two foreign nationals arrested in Serbia for directing interstate stalking and harassment scheme targeting Los Angeles-based critic of Chinese President Xi Jinping – US Department of State: ‘Cui Guanghai, 43, of China, and John Miller, 63, of the United Kingdom’ 🇷🇸🇺🇸🇬🇧
Politburo
vergadering
China’s Politburo puts onus on stability in economic affairs meeting as Beijing vows domestic support amid US trade war – SCMP
China vows in Politburo meeting to support firms and workers affected by tariffs – Reuters: ‘The ruling Communist Party's Politburo reiterated plans to accelerate debt issuance, ease monetary policy and vowed to support employers to safeguard jobs as China hunkers down for a trade war with the United States.’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 chairs CCP leadership meeting on economic situation and work – Xinhua: ‘The meeting urged preparing for worst-case scenarios with sufficient planning, and taking concrete steps to do a good job in economic work.’
中共中央政治局召开会议 分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作 中共中央总书记习近平主持会议 – 新华网：“我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大。要强化底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作。”
Het Engelse citaatje hierboven is onderdeel van deze zin met veelzeggend eufemisme: „Het fundament van de continuerende herstel en verbetering van de Chinese economie moet nog een stap verstevigd worden, de impact van schokken van buiten neemt toe. Moeten bottom-line-denken versterken en volledig voorbereid plannen, economisch werk concreet goed doen.”
“会议指出，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。”
Herhaling van het zoeken naar vooruitgang in stabiliteit, versterken nieuwe ontwikkelingsparadigma en uiteenzetten van binnenlands economisch werk en internationale economische en handelsstrijd, „met de zekerheid van hoge kwaliteit ontwikkeling [d.w.z. de nieuwe industrieën] reageren op de onzekerheid van de drastische veranderingen in de externe omgeving.”
Het stukje over het behouden van ‘opening en hervorming’ ging niet per se over openheid voor Europese bedrijven. Op deze volgorde: internet markt verbeteren, hulp voor Chinese bedrijven die naar buiten gaan, en het beschermen van het multilaterale handelssysteem waar China zo van profiteert.
studiesessie
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 calls for self sufficiency in AI development amid US rivalry – Reuters
Xi Focus: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 urges promoting healthy and orderly development of AI – Xinhua: ‘presiding over a group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on Friday.’
‘building an independent, controllable, and collaboratively-functioning foundational software and hardware system for AI.’
Taalgebruik wat lijkt op eerdere oproepen voor een onafhankelijker en weerbaarder financieel systeem dat niet door Westerse sancties geraakt kan worden. Ook op KI-gebied is het doel dus om de hele keten zelf in huis te hebben. Beperkingen of niet, op termijn wil Peking van ASML en Nvidia af.
习近平在中共中央政治局第二十次集体学习时强调 坚持自立自强 突出应用导向 推动人工智能健康有序发展 – 新华网：“习近平强调，人工智能领域要占领先机、赢得优势，必须在基础理论、方法、工具等方面取得突破。”
Wereldhandelsoorlog 📉💥
Trump talks tariffs. The EU talks free trade with the rest of the world. – POLITICO Europe 🇪🇺
US and EU not close to deal on tariffs, EU’s Dombrovskis says – Reuters 🇪🇺
Praten over invoerheffingen is niet genoeg, zegt het IMF: VS, China én EU moeten eigen economisch beleid bijstellen – NRC
Handelskonflikt: China bedrängt Deutschland – FAZ 🇩🇪
Chef Autozulieferer ZF Friedrichshafen: „Ohne China wird es sehr, sehr schwer“ – FAZ 🇩🇪
China said to waive retaliatory tariffs on some US chip imports in sign of trade war thaw – SCMP: ‘China’s customs authorities also informed domestic companies on Thursday that any duties paid for these exempted semiconductor imports from April 10 to 24 would be eligible for refunds, according to the report.’
‘The Caijing report was deleted from its website and official WeChat channel by noon Friday.’ 🇺🇸
China grants some exemptions from US tariffs to limit trade war pain – Reuters: ‘granted some exemptions on U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking businesses to identify goods that could be eligible in the clearest sign yet that Beijing is worried about the economic fallout’ 🇺🇸
French jet engine maker Safran says China is exempting aerospace parts from tariffs – FT: ‘Safran is part of the CFM International joint venture with GE Aerospace that supplies engines for the C919 aircraft built by China’s Comac.’ 🇫🇷
Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight – FT: ‘The Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting May 4 to be a third lower than a year before’
Huge decline at LA port is a hit to truckers—and a stark warning of coming tariff damage in US – Fortune: ‘Logistics experts are warning that cargo volumes at U.S. ports are undergoing a precipitous drop.’ 🇺🇸
De eerste gevolgen beginnen nu pas wat duidelijk te worden. Tijd om terug te lezen hoe de transportchaos tijdens de lockdowns in de pandemie de wereldhandel lang ontregelde.
‘It’s everything’: 5-year-high pork cancellation signals China weaning off US farm goods – SCMP: ‘Spain, Brazil, Chile, the Netherlands and Canada ranked as China’s top single-country sources of pork for most of 2024’
Chinese firms race to open US factories to avoid sky-high tariffs – SCMP
VS-China 🇨🇳
Conflicting US-China talks statements add to global trade confusion – Reuters: ‘Trump told TIME magazine that talks were taking place and that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called him, an assertion he repeated to reporters as he was leaving the White House on Friday morning for Rome to attend the funeral of Pope Francis.’ ‘“China and the U.S. are NOT having any consultation or negotiation on #tariffs,” China shot back in a foreign ministry statement posted by the Chinese Embassy in the U.S.’ 🇺🇸
Embassy Spokesperson’s Response to Media Query on the US Expressing Willingness to Dialogue with China on Tariffs – Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United States of America: ‘Such statements are misleading. As far as I know, there have been no consultations or negotiations between China and the U.S. on the issue of tariffs, let alone any agreement being reached.’ 🇺🇸
Treasury Secretary Bessent does not back up Trump on China tariff discussions – Reuters: ‘did not back President Donald Trump’s assertion that tariff talks with China were under way and said he did not know if the U.S. president had talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping.’ 🇺🇸
China’s foreign minister Wáng Yì 王毅 says US tariffs show ‘extreme egoism’ – Reuters: ‘on the sidelines of a China-Central Asia foreign ministers meeting in Kazakhstan’
Taiwanese in China looking to invest in other supply chains – Taipei Times: ‘More than 25 percent of China-based Taiwanese businesses are considering terminating their operations in China, with 50 percent looking to increase investments into non-Chinese supply chains’ 🇹🇼
美以芬太尼为借口滥施关税，纯属“内病外治”（钟声） – 《人民日报》（2025年04月27日 第03版）
VS-Taiwan 🇹🇼
Proof of origin required for Taiwan’s exports to the US – Focus Taiwan: ‘to prevent items produced elsewhere from using Taiwan as a transit channel to evade higher tariffs imposed by Washington’ 🇺🇸
Deputy speaker Johnny Chiang 江啟臣 (KMT) to lead legislative delegation to US – Focus Taiwan: ‘to hold meetings on issues including U.S. tariffs.’ 🇺🇸
VS-wereld 🌏
Crunch time ahead for China’s solar panel producers as Trump’s 3,521% ‘shock’ tariffs loom – SCMP: ‘would “virtually block” US solar cell imports from Chinese-owned factories in Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand, according to Citigroup.’
Ambassador says China wants to partner with Canada to push back against American ‘bullying’ – CTV News: ‘whose office requested the interview with The Canadian Press’ 🇨🇦
Techoorlog 💽💥
Signify ziet markt in China aantrekken; tussenpaus bij lichtbedrijf – Eindhovens Dagblad 🇳🇱
Volkswagen has overtaken Tesla as Europe’s top EV seller – Business Insider 🇪🇺
Spanish car-part supplier Gestamp eyes added China capacity as peers back off – SCMP: ‘bucking the trend among international automotive firms that are disposing of their facilities in the world’s largest vehicle market amid fierce competition.’ 🇪🇸
Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China – FT: ‘a goal to source from India the entirety of the more than 60mn iPhones sold annually in the US by the end of 2026.’ 🇺🇸🇮🇳
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan hints at foundry collaboration with TSMC 台積電 – Nikkei Asia 🇺🇸
A China-backed electric vehicle distributor will begin assembling vehicles in Kenya from August – Bloomberg 🇰🇪
Trump op grondstoffenjacht in Congo in de strijd tegen China – VRT NWS 🇨🇩
Could US-DR Congo ‘minerals-for-security’ deal threaten China’s mining dominance? – SCMP 🇨🇩
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China’s Foreign Minister Wáng Yì 王毅 holds phone talks with Pakistani deputy PM – Xinhua: ‘Dar briefed Wang, […], on the latest tensions between Pakistan and India following a terrorist attack in the Kashmir region.’
‘China fully understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests, Wang said.’ 🇵🇰🇮🇳
China’s top market regulator says CK Hutchison 長江和記實業’s ports deal must not try to avoid antitrust review – Reuters 🇺🇸
Probleem voor autoriteiten in het Chinese Vasteland die jurisdictie willen claimen om is dat dit een Hongkongs bedrijf betreft dat bezittingen buiten China wil verkopen aan een andere partij buiten China.
Trump deep sea mining order violates law, China’s foreign ministry says – BBC News 🇺🇸
US Treasury’s Bessent urges Asian Development Bank to move towards ending loans t China – Reuters 🇺🇸
China seizes disputed West Philippine/South China Sea reef near key military outpost, CCTV report claims – AFP: ‘The Chinese coast guard “implemented maritime control” over the Tiexian Reef, also known as Sandy Cay, during the middle of April, state broadcaster CCTV reported on Saturday.’ 🇵🇭
Philippines Navy confirms presence of Chinese aircraft carrier off Babuyan Island – The Inquirer: ‘in the northern part of the country.’ 🇵🇭
China and Vietnam coast guards complete joint patrol in Tonkin/Beibu Gulf – Xinhua: ‘the 29th joint patrol conducted by the two countries' maritime law enforcement agencies since 2006’ 🇻🇳
Pro-China remarks haunt South Korea’s presidential hopeful Lee Jae-myung 李在明 amid West Sea dispute – The Straits Times: ‘Anti-Chinese sentiment is on the rise in South Korea, where a poll released in March found that respondents in their 20s and 30s rated China’s favourability at just 30 out of 100, registering barely two points above North Korea.’ 🇰🇷
China and Central Asian countries to deepen cooperation – Xinhua: ‘a press release from the Sixth China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held […] Saturday.’
China and Kyrgyzstan agree to support free trade and uphold multilateralism – Xinhua: ‘China firmly supports Kyrgyzstan in pursuing a development path suited to its national conditions, strongly opposes any external interference’ 🇰🇬
China plans space traffic management system amid commercial satellite boom – SCMP
China economie
China’s Q1 industrial profits return to growth amid tariff woes – Reuters: ‘are likely to come under further pressure amid a trade war with the United States.’
China will take measures to achieve its annual economic growth target of around 5% despite escalating trade tensions and uncertainties, the country’s finance minister said – Bloomberg
China’s customs to no longer supervise veterinary drugs and medical devices – Reuters
Chinese metal miner CMOC 洛阳钼业 said its chairman and vice chairman have both resigned for personal reasons – Bloomberg
China binnenland
China expands initiative to stamp out Western bias [sic] in ethnic studies [sic] – SCMP: ‘set up study programmes in “community for the Chinese nation”’
‘as Beijing works to consolidate its narrative on a unified national identity.’
‘DeepChina’ Substack exposed: covert United Front ‘opinion and cognitive warfare’ project targets international China scholars – Collective Study: ‘“propaganda brands” of state media under China’s National Ethnic Affairs Commission’
Een duidelijke, gecoördineerde campagne tegen woke 20e eeuwse denkbeelden zoals bronnenonderzoek, basale etnografie en bewustzijn van kolonialisme die Pekings romantisch-19e-eeuwse Chinese nationalisme ontkrachten…
China extends anti-corruption rules to village chiefs and other grass-roots officials – SCMP: ‘The revised Regulations on the Honest Performance of Duties by Rural Grass-roots Officials came into force on March 2’
China’s NPC SC pushes for legislation on national development planning – Xinhua: ‘The longstanding practices in national development planning will be legally formalized.’
Draft law revision reviewed to boost oversight and international cooperation in arbitration – Xinhua
China unveils draft environmental code – Xinhua
Hong Kong
Partners in Pride: The Hong Kong same-sex couples pursuing their dreams of parenthood – HKFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Huge majority of Taiwanese reject ‘one country, two systems‘, Mainland Affairs Council regular poll shows – Focus Taiwan: ‘79.1 percent supported the view that the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC, China) do not belong to each other’ 🇨🇳
Taiwanese coast guard to conduct live-fire exercises off Hualien in May – Taipei Times: ‘The naval exercise notice came just days after reports that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy has been directly coordinating China Coast Guard operations to identify potential targets in Taiwan.’
US and Japan conduct drills with military aircraft off eastern Taiwan – Taipei Times 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Ex-Japan economic security minister Takaichi Sanae 高市 早苗 (LDP) to lead delegation to Taiwan – Focus Taiwan 🇯🇵
Taiwan binnenland en economie
The continuing recall saga in Taiwan – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic: ‘In short, I don’t think it is impossible that the DPP could find itself with a majority in the legislature in November.’
Goed, gedetailleerd overzicht van de stand van zaken in campagnes om parlementsleden te herroepen, door de beste Engelstalige electorale expert in Taiwan.
KMT vows to seek President Lai recall after May 20 at large Taipei rally – Focus Taiwan: ‘“This dictator [referring to Lai] is carrying out a Cultural Revolution in Taiwan — a green […] Cultural Revolution aimed at eliminating all dissent,” [Eric Chu] said.’
‘Chu said Lai is “more communist than the communists, more fascist than the fascists,” adding that if Lai refuses to “repent,” the people of Taiwan will launch a nationwide recall of him starting from May 20.’
‘the combined seats of the KMT and TPP lawmakers is not enough to pass such a motion’
Labour ministry to probe claims migrant workers mobilised for KMT rally – Focus Taiwan