De Chinese Wouden, maandag 26 augustus: overcapaciteiteincalamiteiten, diplomatie China-VS
Het Chinese ministerie van handel heeft een volgende stap gezet in de commerciële strijd tussen de Europese Unie en China. Eerdere dreigende geluiden over mogelijke maatregelen tegen benzineauto’s krijgen nu concreet gestalte in de vorm van discussies met producenten over invoerheffingen op invoer uit Europa.
In deze ontwikkeling samen met de aangekondigde onderzoeken naar zuivelimport ziet SCMP-correspondent Finbarr Bermingham een gerichte campagne om specifieke EU-lidstaten te overtuigen straks tegen de Europese invoerheffingen op elektrische auto’s uit China te stemmen.
De EU kamer van koophandel in China beklaagt zich over escalerende reacties. De Volkskrant vraagt zich dan ook af of Brussel en Peking het handelsconflict nog bij kunnen leggen. Ik denk van niet, om de simpele reden dat Xi Jinpings economisch beleid zijn land op ramkoers brengt met de halve wereld.
In de Wall Street Journal staat een goede uitleg van de logica. Matthew C. Klein legt duidelijk uit dat de Chinese economische zwakte te maken heeft met achterblijvende consumptie. Daar komt nog de vastgoedcrisis bovenop. WSJ vertelt dat in reactie hierop Xi Jinping juist inzet op industrie.
Onder de noemer van „eerst maken, dan breken” (xiān lì, hòu pò 先立后破) zet Peking in op het uitbouwen van de high-tech industrieën van de toekomst waarin China graag dominant wil zijn. Denk aan elektrische auto’s, kunstmatige intelligentie, halfgeleiders, enz. Ondertussen wil het nog de dominantie in de traditionele industrieën als staal behouden.
Teruglopende bouw is echter funest voor de vraag naar staal. Weifelende consumenten hebben ook minder geld voor dure high-tech gadgets. Het antwoord hierop is de buitenlandse markt opzadelen met de productie. Handelsblatt schrijft dat de Duitse industrie een nieuwe China Shock wacht.
Michael Pettis laat niet na om uit te leggen wat de gevolgen hiervan zijn. Onder deze omstandigheden krimpt het Chinese aandeel in de mondiale consumptie. Tegelijkertijd pusht Xi voor een toename in het Chinese aandeel van de mondiale productie. Minder vraag en meer aanbod betekent dat de rest van de wereld meer moet consumeren en minder moet produceren.
Alleen zie ik niet zo snel gebeuren dat Europa de eigen industrie helemaal kapot laat gaan om alles vervolgens uit China te importeren. Dit is een recept voor grotere frictie. Europese maatregelen kunnen niet uitblijven als we de eigen industrie niet weg willen laten vagen. Tegelijkertijd is het voor China een existentiële zaak.
Een open vraag is of Peking op een totaal handelsconflict aan gaat sturen omdat het een opening moet forceren – of dat het uiteindelijk te afhankelijk is van westerse vraag om producten belangrijker dan kaas en cognac tegen te houden. Gezien de economische realiteit in China zou je eerst het laatste verwachten. Maar de effectiviteit van de Europese landbouwlobby in Europa zou de Duitse autolobby misschien nog wel de benodigde steun geven waarop Peking hoopt.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
M&A : les grands patrons français opposés à un contrôle de leurs investissements étrangers par Bruxelles – Les Échos : « Le plan de la Commission fait peser un risque spécifique pour la compétitivité du modèle tricolore, plus encore que pour leurs concurrents européens, critique l'Afep, l'Association française des entreprises privées. » 🇪🇺
Hungary’s debt to China skyrockets, raising financial concerns – Daily News Hungary 🇭🇺
US targets 105 Russian and Chinese firms for aiding Russian military – Reuters 🇷🇺🇺🇸
China hekelt nieuwe sancties VS en dreigt met tegenmaatregelen – de Volkskrant 🇺🇸
Honest talks needed, Starmer tells Chinese leader Xi – BBC News: ‘the first official call between the two.’ 🇬🇧
PM call with President Xi Jinping of China: 23 August 2024 – Gov.uk 🇬🇧
Xi says China and Britain should remain firm as partners, strengthen dialogue and cooperation – Xinhua 🇬🇧
Handel 🚗⚡️
China’s commerce ministry meets automakers to discuss import tariffs on large-engined gasoline vehicles ahead of EU tariff vote – Reuters 🇪🇺
China considers higher tariffs on large petrol cars as EU tensions escalate – SCMP: ‘“Regrettably, the use of trade defence instruments by one government is increasingly being responded to seemingly in kind by the recipient government,” the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said on Wednesday in response to China’s investigation into fresh and processed cheese, as well as uncondensed milk and cream without added sugar or other sweeteners.’ 🇪🇺
China’s dairy probe could squeeze EU exporters, analysts say – Caixin Global: ‘China’s dairy industry has been grappling with oversupply for years’ 🇪🇺
E-auto’s, brandy, varkensvlees en nu zuivel: kunnen EU en China handelsconflict nog bijleggen? – de Volkskrant 🇪🇺
💡 Faced with stagnating growth, China decided to go all in on manufacturing—and much of that production is destined for export – WSJ: ‘squeezing businesses around the world and raising the specter of a new global trade war.’
‘Interviews with policy advisers in Beijing and people who have consulted with Chinese officials show that China’s leadership faced a pivotal crossroads last year, as the country’s real-estate bust brought the economy to one of its weakest points in decades.
Some advisers argued that China’s economy needed a fundamental rethink, […].
Instead, Chinese leader Xi Jinping ordered officials to double down on the country’s state-led manufacturing model, with billions of dollars in fresh subsidies and credit. He used a slogan to make sure officials got the message: “Establish the new before breaking the old,” or xian li hou po [先立后破] in Chinese.’
‘In essence, the phrase calls for building industries China wants to dominate for the future—such as EVs, semiconductors and green energy—while also maintaining the country’s traditional areas of strength in “old” sectors such as steel. Any overcapacity problems can be punted to the future.’
Deutscher Industrie droht der China-Schock – Handelsblatt: „In wichtigen Sektoren haben chinesische Unternehmen auf dem Weltmarkt zu ihren deutschen Konkurrenten aufgeschlossen oder sie schon überholt.“ 🇩🇪
Chinese weakness is the real ‘China Shock’ –
‘The Chinese economy in 2024 is about 5% smaller than what economists at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had expected it would be in their October 2019 forecasts.’
‘China’s recent emergence as a major net exporter of motor vehicles has not coincided with a production boom—total assemblies are no higher the peak in 2018—but with weak domestic sales.’
Chinese EV makers’ losses mount as rising sales fail to offset steep discounts – SCMP: ‘Only two home-grown companies — BYD and Li Auto — are profitable, leaving around 30 rivals under pressure’
Diplomatie China-VS 🇨🇳🇺🇸
Jake Sullivan to make first China visit as US national security adviser – FT: ‘Sullivan is the first national security adviser to visit China since Susan Rice, who served in the administration of President Barack Obama and last travelled there in 2016.’ 🇺🇸
US National Security Advisor to visit China from August 27 to 29 – Xinhua 🇺🇸
MFA official’s briefing on US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit to China – Xinhua: ‘The Chinese side will focus on raising serious concerns, articulating its position and laying out serious demands on issues related to the Taiwan question, the right to development and China’cs strategic security.’
‘On Ukraine, the official said that China's position is aboveboard, and it will continue to promote peace talks, work for political settlement and carry out mediation diplomacy. The United States should stop abusing unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction, and stop smearing, framing, pressuring and blackmailing China.’ 🇺🇸
China was al begonnen om de toon van de verslaggeving te zetten bij ontmoetingen met de VS door tijdens de bijeenkomst al readouts vrij te geven in het Engels. Nu komen ze zelfs vóór het treffen al met een briefing.
The inside story of the secret backchannel between the US and China: Top officials Jake Sullivan and Wang Yi met quietly to stabilise relations in ‘cloak and dagger’ summits around the world – FT: ‘the channel has been a shock absorber that officials say has helped cut the risk of a miscalculation by both nations.’
‘The Chinese official said the strategic channel allowed Wang and Sullivan to discuss Taiwan in a “very candid” way.’
‘Beyond Taiwan, Wang focused on the other two messages, according to the Chinese official. He rejected the US framing of the relationship as a “competition”. And he stressed that China opposed US export controls.’ 🇺🇸
Is dit stuk dan een poging van de bronnen aan Amerikaanse kant om de toon van de verslaggeving al vast te beïnvloeden?
Tech War 💽💥
In Europa zelf batterijen maken? Die ambitie hapert, want de praktijk blijkt weerbarstig – NRC 🇪🇺
China omzeilt Amerikaanse restricties op AI-chips via Amazon en Microsoft – NRC 🇺🇸
State-linked Chinese entities turn to Amazon cloud and its rivals to access high-end US chips and AI – Reuters 🇺🇸
China spends big on Samsung and SK Hynix chips in first half amid US sanctions fears – SCMP 🇰🇷
Universities in China change course to meet government’s need for hi-tech workforce – SCMP: ‘By July 31, a total of 19 universities had suspended or completely removed 99 majors’
Why China’s universities are ditching their engineering programmes – Sixth Tone
Chips or not, Chinese AI pushes ahead – WSJ: ‘rallying around an appealing message from industry pioneers: to make money, they might not necessarily need [the world’s most advanced chips].’
Baidu 百度 blocks Google and Bing from scraping content amid demand for data used on AI projects – SCMP
VS willen westerse medicijnen ‘made in China’ harder aanpakken – De Standaard 🇺🇸
Taiwan’s TSMC 台積電 received NT$62.5bn [€1.76bn] state aid from Japan and China since 2022 – Taipei Times 🇯🇵🇨🇳
Taiwanese under probe for poaching talent for China – Taipei Times 🇨🇳
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Hoe China via films en tv-series de publieke opinie in Afrika probeert te beïnvloeden – FD
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China seen using ‘white hat’ hackers to boost cyberattack capability – Nikkei Asia: ‘An investigation by Nikkei other organizations had found that since 2021 — when it became mandatory in China to report vulnerabilities in software and other products to the government — the number of attacks in which Chinese involvement is suspected has increased sharply.’
China and Philippines clash in South China Sea despite efforts to rebuild trust – Reuters 🇵🇭
PH, China ships collide in waters close to Escoda Shoal – Rappler 🇵🇭
De beelden laten duidelijk zien dat de Chinese kustwachtschepen de Filipijnse schepen rammen.
Philippines accuses Beijing of ‘dangerously’ firing flares near its aircraft in South China Sea – AFP 🇵🇭
Does China risk losing it all as it plays both sides in Myanmar’s lengthy civil war? – SCMP: ‘China’s southwestern provinces have become reliant on the 800km twin oil and gas pipelines linking the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port in the war-hit state of Rakhine with Yunnan’ 🇲🇲
Opinion: China’s deadly divide-and-rule tactics in Myanmar risk shock waves across region – Simon Tisdall for The Observer: ‘Like the vanquished British imperialists it so reviles, Beijing is playing a duplicitous game of divide-and-rule, covertly backing ethnic groups where they control border areas in order to secure its investments and geostrategic interests.’ 🇲🇲
In rare break with China, North Korea objects to telecoms plan by border – Kyodo News 🇰🇵
Pakistan delays China-funded Gwadar airport opening over security fears – Nikkei Asia: ‘the country’s largest airport by size, ahead of Islamabad’s gateway.’ 🇵🇰
In a likely overture to China, Nepal lifts ban on TikTok – The New York Times 🇳🇵
China’s military focuses on beating ‘strong enemies’ in Dèng Xiǎopíng 邓小平 commemorations – SCMP
China economie
China’s attempts to cool a record bond rally have stalled a drop in yields, but at the cost of a collapse in trading activity to an extent that may create more headaches for policymakers – Bloomberg
Ping An 平安 to continue government bond investments despite crackdown – Nikkei Asia
China’s steelmakers face ‘cruel’ reality as ‘harsh’ winter comes for embattled industry – SCMP: ‘China’s industry ministry directed all regions to suspend a steel industry upgrade programme from Friday’
China has abruptly suspended its system for approving new steel plants, as the government responds to a deep demand slump – Bloomberg
Top private equity firms put brakes on China dealmaking – FT
Economic watch: New quality productive forces lead new trend of foreign investment in China – Xinhua
China mutual funds reel from crackdown – FT
China to push supportive monetary policy as financial risks ease: central bank chief – SCMP
China to ‘vigorously, orderly’ expand sales of finished homes in property-sector overhaul – SCMP
After battle with yuan bears, China is now keen to avoid sharp currency gains – Reuters
China binnenland
China hits Xi Jinping’s renewable power target six years early – Bloomberg
CCP leadership reviews measures on western region’s development – Xinhua: ‘a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation should be forged to safeguard ethnic unity and stability in border areas.’
Zomerkamp in China: je bed opmaken, geweertraining en op appèl staan – FD
Het kopje Chinese thee wordt bitterder en duurder door extreem weer – Trouw
Biodiversity of China’s Yangtze River improves, but endangered species still under threat – SCMP
No ‘feminist propaganda’: hit Chinese video game ‘Black Myth: Wukong’ in censorship row – AFP
Hong Kong
Hong Kong education authorities defend telling students to avoid premarital sex – SCMP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Evergreen Group 長榮集團 voices support for ‘1992 consensus’ and opposition to Taiwanese independence after Chinese flag furor in Paris hotel – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
Taiwan condemns China's economic pressure amid flag row – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
Chinese singer denied entry to Taiwan after referencing ‘Taipei, China’ – Focus Taiwan: ‘Wang Yitai (王以太), […], was originally scheduled to hold his first solo concert in Taipei on Sept. 14 and 15’ 🇨🇳
Taiwan deputy foreign minister Tien Chung-kwang to attend Pacific Islands Forum – Reuters
New navy command to operate Harpoon missiles – Taipei Times
New electronic warfare system set to be tested – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
President Lai calls for unity and defending ROC on anniversary of Kinmen bombardment – Focus Taiwan: ‘Lai added that the country wants to continue its free way of life and rejects being ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).’
50 Chinese warplanes and ships detected around Taiwan as President Lai visits Kinmen – Focus Taiwan 🇨🇳
TPP’s Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 says most responsibility for the recent financial scandals is his – Taipei Times: ‘The party would hold a news conference this week to explain the situation, Ko said.’
CTBC Financial 中國信託金融 unveils Shin Kong 新光 takeover pricing, higher than rival Taishin 台新 – Focus Taiwan
Government to look abroad to solve labour issue, NDC minister says – Taipei Times: ‘350,000 unfilled job openings are expected by 2028, while demographics indicate that the workforce would only grow by 150,000’
Het zou helpen als ze eerst eens zorgen dat de verschrikkelijk lage salarissen in Taiwan wat stijgen – dan vertrekken er ook minder mensen naar het buitenland.
Chinese family seeking asylum in Taiwan redirected abroad – Taipei Times