De Chinese Wouden, maandag 25 september: handelsrelatie EU met China, Chinees halfweg-offensief?
De Europese commissaris voor handel Valdis Dombrovskis was afgelopen weekend al in China voor de economische en handelsdialoog in Peking vandaag. Zijn reis komt net na de aankondiging van Brussels onderzoek naar Chinese dumping van elektrische auto’s. Verschillende Europese functionarissen noemen het Chinese handelsoverschot als voorbeeld van de structurele problemen die de EU heeft met Peking. Het gaat niet slechts om markttoegang, het gaat om de structuur van de Chinese (politieke) economie.
De vernietiging van de Europese zonnenpanelenindustrie door Chinese concurrentie zal men in Brussel scherper in het geheugen hebben dan in Den Haag. De bedreiging voor de autoindustrie is zo mogelijk nog groter. Daarbovenop komt de realisatie dat men in Peking wél altijd al geopolitiek heeft gedacht. Kijk naar de buitenlandse afhankelijkheden en binnenlandse onafhankelijkheden die China bewust heeft gecreëerd in kritieke industrieën.
Het is duidelijk dat Brussel de Chinese economie steeds meer niet als enkel kans maar ook als gevaar ziet. Dat botst met de Chinese boodschap, die nog altijd luidt dat de Chinese economie onmisbaar is voor Europese economische herleving. Peking stelt dat de Chinese economie te groot en lucratief is om te negeren.
Twee krachten komen nu met elkaar in botsing. Aan de ene kant is het geloof van het Chinese leiderschap dat de objectieve (marxistisch-materialistische) aantrekkingskracht van hun economie zo groot is, dat alleen men dit alleen maar aan zich voorbij zou laten kunnen gaan wegens ideologische verblinding of hegemonistische (lees: Amerikaanse) druk van buiten. Dit betreft niet alleen meer pure winst, maar ook de technologische voorsprongen die China op steeds meer gebieden heeft.
Aan de andere kant is de Commissie, die in haar nachtmerries de belangrijkste hoogwaardige Europese industrieën die nog over zijn door de vingers ziet glippen en bang is met China de afhankelijkheden te herhalen op nog groter niveau dan wat ons met Rusland zo veel parten heeft gespeeld. Comissievoorzitter Von der Leyen lijkt ook groot belang te hechten aan het bewaren van een Westers front samen met de Verenigde Staten.
De Europese tragiek is, dat de lidstaten en bedrijven die de uitkomst van deze strijd bepalen hiertussen vallen op een breed spectrum. Uiteenlopende nationale en sectorale belangen zorgen voor een kakofonie aan standpunten en lobby’s. Zie alleen al het verschil tussen de houding van de Duitse autoindustrie – waarvoor grote belangen op het spel staan in China – en de Franse – die daar weinig geld vandaan haalt.
We staan voor belangrijke beslissingen die afhangen van afwegingen over kosten en baten, én van afwegingen over waarden en normen. Dat zijn dus óók politieke beslissingen. Zal het aan de orde komen tijdens de campagnes voor de Tweede Kamer-verkiezingen in november en de Europese verkiezingen in juni?
Chinees halfweg-offensief?
De Letse eurocommissaris komt aan op een moment dat Peking op zoek is naar formules om, afhankelijk van je cynisme, respectievelijk concrete vooruitgang te boeken of de steeds concretere tegenmaatregelen te laten vastlopen in oeverloze vooruitzichten op compromissen. De werkgroepen tussen China en de VS zouden nieuw leven in worden geblazen volgens staatsomroep CCTV op sociale media en ook Dombrovskis hoopt op één of twee werkgroepen over o.a. exportmaatregelen.
Ondertussen maakt een nieuwe frase zijn opwachting. Vicepresident Han Zheng riep de VS tijdens zijn gesprek met Blinken in New York hebben op om elkaar „tegemoet te komen” (‘meet each other halfway’). Nu komt dat ook elders terug. Een door Australië verworpen deal om wijn toe te laten in ruil voor betere behandeling van geavanceerde Chinese producten werd door Peking zo aangeprezen. Xi Jinping zelf gebruikte de frase tijdens zijn ontmoeting met de premier van Zuid-Korea.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Ambassador Tán Jiàn 谈践’s speech at the reception celebrating the 74th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China – Embassy of the People’s Republic of China to the Kingdom of the Netherlands: ‘China was and still is the main engine for global economic recovery and growth.’ ‘looking back at the one thousand year’s history, I could not recall that China has done anything harming the interest of Europe. And there is no fundamental conflict of interest between China and Europe.’ 🇳🇱
Ambassador Fù Cōng 傅聪, head of the Chinese mission to the EU, met with Willem van de Voorde, permanent representative of Belgium to the EU – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union 🇧🇪
EU says up to 70% of hi-tech imports ‘killing Ukrainians’ are reaching Russian military via China – SCMP 🇺🇦
Eurocommissaris noemt handelsrelatie EU-China „zeer onevenwichtig” – FD 🇪🇺
EU-vicevoorzitter in China: Europa moet zichzelf wel beschermen – NU.nl 🇪🇺
EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis in Shanghai says bloc doesn’t intend to decouple from China – SCMP: ‘“We have to protect ourselves in situations when [our] openness is abused,” Dombrovskis said.’ 🇪🇺
EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis warns of ‘new areas of concern’ in China relationship – FT: ‘In an interview with the Financial Times in Shanghai, the EU vice-president cited “implications of the anti-espionage law” in China and “data flows” as concerns, alongside market access for foreign companies in the mainland.’ 🇪🇺
German carmakers ‘afraid, rightly so’ of China retaliation, economy minister Robert Habeck warns – POLITICO Europe: ‘Habeck also admitted that there is a Franco-German divide over the anti-subsidy investigation’ 🇩🇪🇪🇺
Senior Chinese diplomat Wáng Yì 王毅 urges EU to uphold openness and support free trade in phone conversation with French president’s diplomatic advisor Emmanuel Bonne – Xinhua 🇫🇷🇪🇺
Wang en Bonne bellen elkaar opvallend vaak.
China ready to enhance security cooperation with Italy, senior CCP official Chēn Wénqīng 陈文清 tells foreign minister Tajani in Italy – Xinhua 🇮🇹
Chen was tot vorig jaar de baas van de Chinese Stasi en is in het Politburo nu verantwoordelijk voor het hele veiligheidssysteem.
Why is there no Room for China in Poland’s electoral debate? – Alicja Bachulska for CHOICE 🇵🇱
UK envoy Richard Faulkner visits Taiwan to bolster trade relations – Taipei Times 🇬🇧
Taiwan-UK collaboration will help Taiwan’s energy transition, says Taipower at conference – Focus Taiwan 🇬🇧
Tech War 💽💥
US finalises rules to prevent China from benefiting from US$52 billion in chips funding – Reuters
South Korea pleads with US on China chip curbs as expiry of waiver nears – Caixin Global
Voor de abonnees op
Apple’s iPhone 15 draws long queues in China despite competition from Huawei – SCMP
China’s quest for human genetic data spurs fears of a DNA arms race – The Washington Post: ‘collection effort, underway for more than a decade, has included the acquisition of U.S. genetics companies as well as sophisticated hacking operations, U.S. and Western intelligence officials say.’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
De olifant in de (Tweede) Kamer, dat is de bestaanszekerheid van Nederland zelf – Arnout Brouwers in de Volkskrant: „technologische achterstand, geopolitieke naïviteit – ‘gestut’ door militaire zwakte.”
US-China spy battle casts shadow over push for Biden-Xi summit – Nikkei Asia: ‘“Xi has great trust in Chen Wenqing, former minister of state security, and Wang Xiaohong, the minister of public security, who are key members in Xi’s ‘Security Clique,’” the [US] official said.’
Imitators are adopting Chinese tactics to quash online critics – Cambodian opposition leader Sam Rainsy for Nikkei Asia
Biden to host Pacific island leaders in US charm offensive vs China – Reuters: ‘Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who has deepened his country's ties with China, will skip the summit.’
US seeks military access in Philippine eastern seaboard – Nikkei Asia
China isn’t the only country giving out goodies in Asia: Japan and South Korea are offering development cash too – The Economist ‘While China is strong in infrastructure (with nearly 40% of all development finance in that sector), Japan funds transport slightly more than China does. South Korea is level with China in communications. China dominates energy—but in water and sanitation it is nearly absent. The Chinese approach can breed resentment. It delivers fewer projects than promised.’
Aziatische Spelen Hangzhou 🤾♀️🇨🇳
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 opens Hangzhou Asian Games, ceremony dazzles – Reuters
Xi Focus: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 welcomes Hangzhou Asiad guests, highlighting sports’ role in promoting peace, solidarity, and inclusiveness – Xinhua: ‘As members of a community with a shared future, Asian countries should pursue good neighborliness and mutual benefit, and reject the Cold War mentality and bloc confrontation, making Asia an anchor of world peace, the Chinese president said.’
Full text: Remarks by Chinese President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 at welcoming banquet of Hangzhou Asiad opening ceremony – Xinhua
Asian Games 2023: Xi Jinping hails IOC’s ‘non-politicisation of sport’ [sic] when meeting Thomas Bach as diplomatic row breaks out over visa denial to Indian athletes from China-claimed Arunachal Pradesh – SCMP
Asia Olympic council ‘looking into’ Indian athletes’ China visa issue – Reuters
Two Taiwan media outlets — Liberty Times and ETtoday — denied access to Asian Games opening in China’s Hangzhou – Focus Taiwan
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 calls on West to lift sanctions against war-ravaged Syria – Reuters: ‘Xi also told Assad that China would help Syria to rebuild its ruined economy and counter domestic unrest, by upgrading ties to a “strategic partnership”.’
China and Syria grow cosier on shared Russia ties and Beijing’s big Middle East ambitions, analysts say – SCMP
Xi and Assad jointly announce China-Syria strategic partnership – Xinhua
Chinese Vice-President Hán Zhèng 韩正 tells UN General Assembly to oppose ‘hegemonism’ – SCMP: ‘did not mention the US by name, using instead a host of oft-used phrases to criticise Washington.’
Chinese Vice-President Hán Zhèng 韩正 calls for commitment to multilateralism and improvement of global governance – Xinhua: ‘the legitimate security concerns of all countries should be addressed’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 calls for China and South Korea to ‘meet each other halfway’ meeting premier Han Duck-soo 韓悳洙 as ties strain under US pressure – SCMP
Presidential office to discuss with China on Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s possible visit to South Korea – Yonhap News
Australian government says ‘yeah, no’ to deal with China to drop wine tariffs in return for favourable treatment of other products – The Guardian: ‘“We are willing to meet the Australian side halfway, further enhance mutual trust and cooperate on the basis of the settlement of the barley case dispute,” he reportedly said.’
Blasting bullhorns and water cannons, Chinese ships wall off the sea – The New York Times over China’s groeiende agressie in de Zuid-Chinese Zee: ‘The world’s most brazen maritime militarization is gaining muscle in waters through which one-third of global ocean trade passes.’
China’s Coast Guard installed a floating barrier on Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, preventing access for Filipino fishing vessels, the Philippines says – Bloomberg
Why did Trudeau dawdle on Chinese election meddling? A new inquiry may expose Beijing’s reach in Ottawa – Foreign Policy: ‘Canada’s intelligence agencies have been warning for decades that China is running covert affairs inside Canada. And, for just as long, there has been a dogged rejection of those warnings from politicians who see China as key to Canada’s economic future—or who fear alienating ethnically Chinese voters.’
A final version of that 1997 report was sanitized, and the direct allegations against Beijing were removed. Years later, in 2010, the head of CSIS tried to raise those concerns again, teasing that there were sitting politicians “who we think are under at least the general influence of a foreign government.” For that, he was excoriated. A committee of parliamentarians accused him of xenophobia and demanded he be fired. (The government of the day, itself skeptical of China, kept him on.)
In the years that followed, evidence of Chinese operations mounted. There were accusations that Chinese state news agency Xinhua was trying to spy on the Dalai Lama’s trip to Ottawa and a suggestion it directed the seduction of one member of parliament. There is a credible allegation that Chinese spies bugged the offices of former telecommunications giant Nortel, using the ill-gotten technology to launch Huawei. There was a Beijing-backed hack of a government research facility, and an espionage effort run out of Vancouver to steal F-35 fighter jet secrets.
Yet when Trudeau first ran for high office, he did so on a plan to deepen trade ties with Beijing—in contrast to his predecessor, who had taken a more cautious approach. Trudeau fixed his gaze on an elusive project: becoming the first country in the G-7 to sign a full free-trade deal with Beijing.
Chinese spies are targeting access, not race: Implying China mostly uses ethnically Chinese assets is both wrong and dangerous – Anonymous US official Horatio Smith for Foreign Policy: ‘The Chinese intelligence services are now prioritizing the recruitment of individuals with access to information of interest over perceived loyalty, regardless of their ethnicity.’
Two Chinese coast guard vessels exit Japan’s territorial waters off Senkaku[/Diaoyutai] Islands; Japanese fishing vessel operates in nearby area – The Yomiuri Shimbun
Ook VS in actie tegen goedkope Chinese elektrische auto’s – FD
Exclusive: Biden aides in talks with Vietnam for arms deal that could irk China – Reuters
Criminal groups from China spreading out to South-east Asia, including Singapore, experts say – The Straits Times
Singapore’s indirect staatsgecontroleerde pers schrijft ineens regelmatig over dit onderwerp sinds een aantal recente arrestaties van Chinese witwassers.
China and resource-rich East Timor upgrade bilateral ties – Reuters
Nepal PM jets from US to China to talk connectivity and security – Nikkei Asia
Chinese investors focus on West Africa amid decline in total loans to continent – SCMP
China steps in to save Uganda oil pipeline as Western lenders back out over environmental concerns – SCMP
China-Arab states expo wraps up with CN¥171 billion [€22b] worth of deals – SCMP
China economie
How Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 is taking control of China’s stock market – FT: ‘using stock markets to direct that capital with the aim of reshaping China’s economy.’ ‘to reduce dependence on property and infrastructure development to drive growth.’
‘Even bigger glory’: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 seeks to boost confidence with Yiwu market stroll – SCMP
China is considering relaxing the rules that cap foreign ownership in domestic publicly traded firms, says sources, as it seeks to lure global funds back to its stock market – Bloomberg
China’s capital exodus prompts Beijing city to reassure foreign investors who make ‘authentic and compliant’ transactions – SCMP
Xi’s flagship China city Xiong'an to sell homes only after construction – Reuters
China central bank adviser Liú Shìjǐn 刘世锦 proposes structural reforms to revive economy – Reuters
China tells SOEs and local governments: pay your overdue bills – Caixin Global
Zo verspreidt de schuldenproblematiek in vastgoedsector en bij lokale overheden zich door de rest van de economie.
Chinese investors scramble to sell overseas properties amid shaky economic conditions – SCMP: ‘Small apartments and condos in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, were a popular choice for the Chinese middle classes in the late 2010s’
Het zou mooi zijn geweest als SCMP meer statistieken had dan de ervaringen van de slechts twee geïnterviewde betrokkenen.
China property crisis holds Singapore and Hong Kong REITs back – Nikkei Asia
China binnenland
China’s armed forces warned personnel that socialising with the wrong people [交友不慎] is a key reason ‘some leaders’ have been removed from their positions – Bloomberg
Het gonst van de geruchten: in China gaat Xi Jinping met de bezem door het leger – AD
CCP renews political loyalty indoctrination – John Dotson for Jamestown China Brief
‘What adjectives describe Xi Jinping?’ China’s new English textbook asks – FT: ‘The introduction of the textbook is part of a sweeping campaign by Chinese authorities to incorporate the thinking of the country’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong into university English education.’
Huáng Xuěqín 黃雪琴: het ‘verdwenen’ gezicht van de #MeToo-beweging in China – de Volkskrant: „Huang riskeert een celstraf van 5 jaar.”
Chinese dissident Chén Sīmíng 陈思明 who stopped on way home from Thailand during transit at Taiwan airport seeks US or Canada asylum – Focus Taiwan
China puts localities’ feet to the fire to protect farmland and prevent illegal dumping – SCMP
De twee belangrijkste gebieden waarop Xi Jinping wil dat China zelfvoorzienend is – laten we het ‘de-risking’ noemen – betreffen high-tech en voedsel. Voor dat laatste is het belangrijk de relatief schaarse Chinese landbouwgrond te beschermen.
China fuels global surge in mpox cases as LGBTQ+ stigma hampers response – The Guardian
Top Chinese university scraps English tests in move cheered by nationalists – CNN
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Digital affairs minister Audrey Tang 唐鳳 discusses tech problems at Freedom Online Coalition ministers’ forum in New York – Taipei Times: ‘French ambassador for digital affairs Henri Verdier, met with Tang after the meeting to exchange ideas on promoting transnational public programs, the ministry said.’
Taiwan races to set up a backup satellite network with new urgency – The National Review: ‘the digital-affairs ministry is “investing in a plurality of satellite providers, not just for redundancy’s sake” but also because “we want to work with many jurisdictions, many countries’ systems so that it becomes, as I mentioned, very difficult to jam or disrupt all those different satellite systems belonging to different countries at once.”’
Taiwan’s defence minister Chiu Kuo-cheng 邱國正 says Chinese movements ‘abnormal’, flagging amphibious drills – Reuters
Hierbij maakt het Chinese Volksbevrijdingsleger ook gebruik van civiele veerboten. Deze spelen een belangrijke rol in het plannen voor het overzetten van de grote hoeveelheden soldaten die nodig zullen zijn.
Taiwan’s defence minister Chiu Kuo-cheng 邱國正 raises concerns about situation ‘getting out of hand’ with China drills – Reuters
‘Abnormaal’ betekent niet gelijk oorlog, beste mensen.
Taiwan’s military detects China’s military drills at Fujian bay area – Focus Taiwan
Het belangrijkste nieuws hieraan is dat het Taiwanese ministerie van defensie dit bericht. Blijkbaar volgen ze de Filipijnen in het openbaarmaking van Chinese militaire acties om terug te slaan.
Japan PM Kishida Fumio 岸田 文雄 leans closer to Taiwan with hawkish Cabinet picks – The Straits Times
Taipei’s Chiang Wan-an 蔣萬安 (KMT) departs for mayor forum in Seoul – Focus Taiwan
Experts urge laws to protect critical infrastructure amid increasing threat – Taipei Times
Taiwan verkiezingen
Seven killed in Pingtung factory blaze, including four firefighters – Taipei Times: ‘all the major presidential candidates said they would temporarily halt campaigning’
Pingtung fire death toll rises to 9 – Taipei Times
Premier Chen Chien-jen 陳建仁 apologises in parliament for controversies over imported eggs – Focus Taiwan
Egg prices rise amid import plan furor – Taipei Times
Zou al negatief effect hebben op de DPP in de peilingen.