De Chinese Wouden, maandag 24 juli: inhaalnieuwsbrief
Afgelopen weken was ik in Singapore voor mijn afstudeerceremonie en om bij te praten met vrienden in de stadstaat waar ik de helft van mijn twintiger jaren heb geleefd. Voor de foto’s van mij in het promovendusgewaad van de Nationale Universiteit van Singapore verwijs ik naar LinkedIn.
Het is mij niet gelukt om de nieuwsbrief bij te houden. Aangezien ik woensdag weer terug ben in het land, begin ik vandaag met een eerste stap om weer een beetje bij te komen. Bedankt voor het geduld.
Er is nogal wat gebeurd in de Singaporese politiek deze maand, maar ik zal toelichting daarop beperken tot het aanbod om mensen op verzoek bij te praten. In China en Taiwan is er immers genoeg aan de hand. Tijdens de afwezigheid van mijn nieuwsbrief zijn, bijvoorbeeld, de vragen over de afwezigheid van minister Qin Gang nog niet opgelost. Gelukkig maar, dan hebben jullie dat nog tegoed van mij!
Ik schrijf deze inhaalnieuwsbrief in de nationale bibliotheek van Singapore, in een leeszaal van waar ik – tussen de torens door – net de Straat van Singapore kan zien. Daar dobberen de vrachtschepen waartussen in 2021 de Zr.Ms. Evertsen manoeuvreerde op weg naar en terug van Oost-Azië. In mijn gesprekken in deze geopolitieke hotspot uit men interesse naar wat er in Europa gebeurt. Maar uit die logische verzoeken aan een Europese bezoeker om de stand van zaken uit te doeken te doen, kan ik ook opmaken dan men hier doorgaans niet heel veel met Europa bezig is.
De schandalen in de Singaporese politiek – en het ontbrekende leiderschap binnen de regeringspartij in transitie – dat daar mede debet aan heeft, zijn belangrijk, omdat men hier ook voor belangrijke keuze’s staat. De praktijk is duidelijk: om tegen het nabije, veeleisende China tegengewicht te bieden, schuurt men ook in Zuidoost-Azië steeds dichter tegen de Verenigde Staten aan (in het geval van Singapore zijn de banden met Taiwan ook nog altijd erg nauw). Alleen gebeurt dat achter de schermen. Openlijk wil men geen partij wil kiezen.
Publiekelijk zou men veel liever ‘derden’ willen verwelkomen. Dat verklaart ook het succes van Japan en de constante droom van India’s potentie. Europese aanwezigheid is ook welkom, alleen moeten we dan wel eindelijk met concrete bijdragen komen, gebaseerd niet op intra-Europese debatten maar op basis van echte kennis van de wensen en noden in de regio.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army – POLITICO Europe (2023/07/23): ‘The wartime strength of China’s exports of dual-use products to Russia is confirmed by customs data. And, while Ukraine is a customer of China too, its imports of most of the equipment covered in this story have fallen sharply, the figures show.’ 🇺🇦
Russian air strike damages Chinese consulate in Odesa – POLITICO Europe (2023/07/20) 🇺🇦
Xi Jinping personally warned Vladimir Putin against nuclear attack in Ukraine during March visit, according to western and Chinese officials – FT (2023/07/05): ‘Since then, Chinese officials have privately taken credit for convincing the Russian president to back down from his veiled threats of using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, the people said.’ 🇺🇦
‘#China and #Ukraine held talks on economic and trade cooperation in Beijing. China is willing to move forward China-Ukraine strategic partnership. The two sides agreed to expand mutually beneficial trade and investment cooperation.’ – Wang Lutong, Twitter (2023/07/21) 🇺🇦
Germany’s first China strategy is vocal on risks, short on policy – Reuters (2023/07/14) 🇩🇪
China criticises German call for reducing dependency on Chinese products as ‘protectionism’ – AP (2023/07/14) 🇩🇪
Germany Has a New Consensus on China: Berlin has published a surprisingly tough China strategy. Can it put it into action? – Noah Barkin for Foreign Policy (2023/07/21) 🇩🇪
EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell eyes October trip to China, but has not been assured he will meet absent Foreign Minister Qín Gāng 秦刚, sources say – SCMP (2023/07/18) 🇪🇺
China’s efforts to understand Europe remain a work in progress – Yuan Yang for FT (2023/07/05): ‘The dominant Chinese narrative says that ideology has confounded European abilities to assess their true interests.’ 🇪🇺
China’s Wáng Yì 王毅 urges EU to ‘clarify’ its position on partnership – Reuters (2023/07/15) 🇪🇺
A China-based hacking group intent on conducting espionage breached a series of email accounts linked to government agencies in Western Europe, Microsoft says – Bloomberg (2023/07/12) 🇪🇺
💡 Transcript of Ambassador Fù Cōng 傅聪’s Remarks in the stars Webinar – Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the European Union (2023/07/21): ‘I’m a diplomat and I’ve been dealing with multilateral institutions in my whole career. I have the feeling that for all international organizations, member states should be the driving force. Here in the EU, I thought that should be the case. But in some specific cases, it doesn’t seem to be like that. In certain cases, especially in areas involving foreign policy and national security, according to my understanding of the EU constitution, it should be the privilege of the member states. But what we hear now is that the European Commission is having a stronger voice, and sometimes it seems that the Commission is ordering the member states to do things that the member states may not agree to. So that is the most confusing part of the EU as far as I’m concerned.’ 🇪🇺
China is geen fan van Ursula von der Leyen. Hier laat Fu zijn voorkeur voor de Raad boven de Commissie wel erg duidelijk blijken.
China ‘complicit’ in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, MI6 chief Richard Moore tells POLITICO – POLITICO Europe (2023/07/19): ‘He said MI6 now devotes more resources to tackling China than anything else.’ 🇬🇧
French parliamentary group visits Taiwan, to meet with [DPP candidate] Vice President William Lai Ching-te 賴清德 [Lài Qīngdé] – Focus Taiwan (2023/07/23) 🇫🇷
Tech War 💽💥
ASML, the leading provider of chipmaking equipment, is facing tighter Dutch restrictions on its ability to work with existing Chinese customers – Bloomberg (2023/07/14) 🇳🇱
Japan’s export curbs on chip-making equipment to China take effect – Kyodo News (2023/07/23)
EU asks metals producers to explore making chip inputs after China export curbs – FT (2023/07/14) 🇪🇺
China’s chipmaking export curbs ‘just a start’, Beijing adviser Wèi Jiànguó 魏建国 warns before Yellen visit – Reuters (2023/07/06)
Former vice-minister of commerce Wèi Jiànguó 魏建国: China has more tools for countermeasures against US export controls – China Daily (2023/07/05): ‘the decision […] will not only cause panic in certain countries, but also exert heavy pain in them.’
China’s curb on metal exports reverberates across chip sector – FT (2023/07/04): ‘According to officials and experts in China, Beijing is expected to introduce further retaliatory measures in response to the expansion of US-led controls on technology exports. “There will be more retaliatory measures against the snowballing semiconductor export controls from western countries,” said one senior official close to the Chinese commerce ministry.’
Thriving underground market for high-end chips in China after US export ban – The Straits Times (2023/07/21)
US looks to restrict China’s access to cloud computing to protect advanced technology – WSJ (2023/07/04): ‘National-security analysts have warned that Chinese AI companies might have bypassed the current export controls rules by using cloud services.’
US plans to restrict new investments in China will be narrowly focused on cutting-edge technology such as chips and AI—and likely won’t go into effect until 2024, sources say – Bloomberg (2023/07/18)
In de recente aflevering van de postcast Sharp China interpreteert Amerikaanse Chinakenner Bill Bishop bovenstaande als een climbdown van de regering Biden.
China’s CATL finds battery research help in small east German town – Nikkei Asia (2023/07/05)
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol 尹錫悅 and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte agree to deepen cooperation in semiconductors – Yonhap (2023/07/11)
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
Nato leaders slam China for Russia ties and Taiwan threats in sternest rebuke to date – SCMP (2023/07/12)
China and Russia to hold joint military drill in strategic waters near Japan – SCMP (2023/07/15)
Japan likely to come to Taiwan’s aid during a Chinese invasion – The Telegraph (2023/07/23)
Japan to build air raid shelters on Miyako Island 宮古島, according to report – Taipei Times (2023/07/24)
US under pressure from businesses and some EU governments to avoid ‘unnecessary conflict’ with China, but ‘much could still go wrong’ – SCMP (2023/07/05)
Morgan Stanley is moving 200 developers out of mainland China, mostly to Hong Kong and Singapore, in response to a new data law – Bloomberg (2023/07/19)
Work dries up for US consultancies in China after national security raids – FT (2023/07/23)
Chinezen geven Russische auto-industrie tweede leven – FD (2023/07/23)
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
China proposes high-level talks with Tokyo and Seoul, with eye to summit – Kyodo News (2023/07/23)
China ready to work with Russia to uphold ASEAN centrality, says Wáng Yì 王毅 – CGTN (2023/07/14)
If China fails to intervene in North Korea, US will take [diplomatic] action, says Antony Blinken – SCMP (2023/07/22)
White House regrets Kissinger had better access in Beijing than current US officials – Reuters (2023/07/21)
Why Kissinger went to China—again – Daniel W. Drezner for POLITICO Magazine (2023/07/22): ‘This trip is a reminder of Kissinger’s one true innovation throughout his career: inventing the for-profit third act of a career in public service.’
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s surprise meeting with Duterte the latest bid to improve ties with Manila – SCMP (2023/07/18)
Pekings diplomatie richt zich vaak op het opbouwen van persoonlijke banden met de partijen en politici die op een bepaald moment aan de macht zijn. Zoals de recente aflevering van de Drum Tower-podcast van The Economist beschrijft, kan dit leiden tot goede banden met de elite terwijl de bevolking negatief staat t.o.v. China. Bovenstaande verhalen zijn voorbeeld van een ander probleem: wanneer die personen de macht verliezen, dan is ook de goede band weg. De Filipijnen, de Maldiven, Sri Lanka, enz. zijn allemaal voorbeelden waar dit is misgegaan.
Outlaw Alliance: How China and Chinese mafias overseas protect each other’s interests – ProPublica (2023/07/12) 🇪🇺
China to resume 15-day visa-free entry for Singaporeans from July 26 – The Straits Times
Lijkt erop dat Peking de gedoemde pogingen tot wederkerigheid heeft opgegeven.
Two Chinese nationals held near India-Nepal border – The Hindustan Times (2023/07/23)
China economie
China’s state planner unveils steps to spur private investment – Reuter (2023/07/24)
China’s financial regulator asked banks to respond to a bearish research report on the sector by analysts at Goldman Sachs Group, underscoring heightened sensitivity in Beijing toward negative market commentary as the economy slows – Bloomberg (2023/07/12)
Politisering van economische analyse kan alleen maar tot minder vertrouwen leiden.
Chinese economists are pushing back against the idea that the economy is entering a ‘balance sheet recession’ like Japan did decades ago, with possible implications for how Beijing will deal with its faltering recovery – Bloomberg (2023/07/19)
Chinese regulators met with global investors, stepping up the government’s bid to boost market confidence – Bloomberg (2023/07/22)
China’s Economy Might Look Good on Paper, but It Feels Like a Recession – WSJ (2033/07/14)
China considers easing mortgage rules in its biggest cities including Beijing and Shanghai, as existing policies fail to sustain a homebuying rebound – Bloomberg (2023/07/20)
African exports to China plunge amid property market slowdown and sluggish economic recovery – SCMP
China binnenland
Ten killed after school gymnasium roof collapses in China – Reuters (2023/07/24)
‘Keep the blade clean’: Xí Jìnpíng 习近平’s corruption investigators turn focus on themselves – FT (2023/07/07)
Hong Kong
Politie in Hongkong jaagt met Nederlandse speedboten op vluchtende activisten – Follow the Money (2023/07/05) 🇳🇱
National security police ‘take away’ family members of wanted Hong Kong activists for questioning – HKFP (2023/07/20)
Government-funded broadcaster axes Hong Kong LGBT+ radio show after 17 years – HKFP (2023/07/24)
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Beijing will keep up intimidation, but little chance of a full economic blockade, Taiwanese vice-foreign minister Roy Chun Lee 李淳 [Lǐ Chún] says – SCMP (2023/07/04)
Inspired by Ukraine war, Taiwan launches drone blitz to counter China – Reuters (2023/07/21): ‘Under the “Drone National Team” program, Taiwan is recruiting the island’s commercial drone makers and aviation and aerospace firms in a joint effort with the military to fast-track the building of a self-sufficient drone supply chain.’
How China’s military is slowly squeezing Taiwan – FT (2023/07/24): ‘Some defence experts therefore believe that the US military’s strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these pressure tactics.’
PLA rolls out longer-range missiles near Taiwan: military experts – SCMP (2023/07/23)
Taiwan verkiezingen
Taiwan’s KMT at war with itself – Courtney Donovan Smith (2023/07/16)
KMT chair Eric Chu 朱立倫 [Zhū Lìlún] urges punishment for ‘saboteurs’ – Taipei Times (2023/07/09)
A few thoughts about Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 [Hóu Yǒuyí] – Nathan Batto’s Frozen Garlic (2023/07/23): ‘Once his polling numbers stopped looking so great, he had no center of gravity.’ ‘Why was Hou so popular in the first place? He didn’t stand for anything clear, so people had to fill in the blanks.’
My Plan to Preserve Peace in the Taiwan Strait – Vice President William Lai Ching-te for WSJ (2023/07/04):
As president, I will implement a four-pillar plan for peace that is clear-eyed about the challenges we face and ensures continued stability in the region.
First, we must build up Taiwan’s deterrence. […]
Second, economic security is national security. […]
The third pillar is based on forming partnerships with democracies around the world. […]
The fourth pillar is steady and principled cross-strait leadership. […]
Despite increased military and economic challenges, my top priorities remain pragmatism and consistency. I will support the cross-strait status quo — which is in the best interests of both the Republic of China, as Taiwan is formally known, and the international community. I will never rule out the possibility of dialogue without preconditions, based on the principles of reciprocity and dignity.
Taiwan presidential front-runner William Lai Ching-te 賴清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP) says he can keep peace with China – Reuters (2023/07/05): ‘Lai is expected to visit the United States next month, according to diplomatic sources, as presidential candidates traditionally do, to discuss their policy agenda.’
Washington presses Taiwan presidential frontrunner William Lai Ching-te 賴清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP) on White House comments – FT (2023/07/20)
De oude ‘China hands’ in Washington DC zijn altijd al een beetje afkerig geweest van de DPP en hebben nog altijd de neiging alles wat Lai zegt te interpreteren als extreem. Dat wil natuurlijk niet zeggen dat Lai zijn toekomstdroom net iets handiger had kunnen formuleren.
Taipei rejects ‘one China’ framework advocated by Terry Gou 郭台銘 [Guō Táimíng] – Focus Taiwan (2023/07/18)
Opinion: Taiwan abandoning the one-China framework aggravates the risk of war – Terry Gou for The Washington Post
Nog altijd wijzen alle tekenen erop dat Foxconn-oprichter Gou bezig is een onafhankelijke gooi naar het presidentschap voor te bereiden.
TPP files lawsuit against SET News over KMT alliance news – Taipei Times (2023/07/23)
喊話團結非綠 朱立倫:在野大聯盟不為權位、個人利益 – 自由時報 (2023/07/24)
People in Taiwan are following the war in Ukraine but drawing opposite lessons about what it means for them – WSJ (2023/07/05): ‘To some, the takeaway is that even a seemingly invincible foe can be defeated if a society stands firm, an inspiration for Taiwan's own effort to resist a feared invasion by China. Others draw the opposite lesson from the images of smoldering Ukrainian cities. Anything is better than war, they say, and Taiwan should do all it can to avoid provoking Beijing’s wrath, even if that means painful compromises.’
‘The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan’s military are a particular concern, Western officials say.’
‘“The young people are the ones who don’t want unification with China,” said ret. Lt. Gen. Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan’s air force. “But if you want independence, you need to fight, and they also don’t want to fight. Therein is the conflict.”’
Taiwan probes alleged leak of classified reports and diplomatic cables – Reuters (2023/07/21)
Defence denies report of US requesting Taiwan to produce bio-weapons – Focus Taiwan (2023/07/09)
Officials link biological weapons story to China – Taipei Times (2023/07/13)
China en twee Taiwanese kranten, de pro-KMT UDN en de Peking-vriendelijke China Times, waren betrokken bij het verspreiden van desinformatie over een lab.
Taiwan presidential hopefuls woo Southeast Asian diaspora – Nikkei Asia (2023/07/16)
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Penghu County Council speaker Liu Chen Zhao-ling 劉陳昭玲 [Liú Chén Zhāolíng] (KMT) and secretary indicted over alleged graft – Focus Taiwan