De Chinese Wouden, maandag 21 november: ASML, APEC, China niet klaar voor heropening
Afgelopen vrijdag was ASML weer in het nieuws, met uitspraken van minister voor buitenlandse handel Schreinemacher over Amerikaanse eisen. Nederland staat volop in de belangstelling van de Engelstalige pundits. Verder is er Duits Chinanieuws. APEC was nog aan de gang en Taiwan is ook lid, maar mag als enige niet zijn president sturen. De aangewezen vertegenwoordiger Morris Chang – oprichter van TSMC – sprak in Bangkok zowaar een woordje met President Xi Jinping. China is niet klaar voor heropening, berichten Bloomberg, FT en Caixin. Op de klimaattop streed Peking tegen het 1.5-graad-doel en wilde het als ontwikkelingsland gerekend blijven.
Een week voor de lokale verkiezingen in Taiwan is er ook aandacht voor in de lokale en Singaporese pers. Nationaal is de oppositiepartij KMT een sterfhuis, op lokaal niveau hebben ze nog goede kansen. Maar dat is juist, omdat daar de allesbepalende China-Taiwan-split – die in Taiwan het politieke landschap bepaalt in plaats van links-rechts – lokaal niet van belang is, niet omdat de Taiwanese kiezer nog echt interesse heeft in de Chinastandpunten van de KMT.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Export naar Taiwan sinds 2010 verviervoudigd – CBS: ‘China is de grootste Oost-Aziatische exportbestemming voor Nederland. In 2021 bedroeg de Nederlandse export naar China 14,1 miljard euro. Taiwan (9,7 miljard euro) en Zuid-Korea (8,6 miljard euro) staan op twee en drie.’ 🇳🇱
Nederlandse ambassadeur in Berlijn kritisch op Chinabeleid Duitsland – BNR: „Met name het feit dat Duitsland een individuele strategie uitwerkt stoot Van Roeden tegen het zere been, omdat hij juist pleit voor een gezamenlijke Europese aanpak.” 🇳🇱🇩🇪
Neue Töne aus den Niederlanden – Berliner Zeitung 🇳🇱🇩🇪
Germany plans to tighten rules for firms highly dependent on China, confidential draft document seen by Reuters says – Reuters: ‘Among the steps outlined in the 65-page paper, some of which have already been reported, is a tightening of rules for firms active in China to ensure geopolitical risks are accounted for.’ 🇩🇪
Taiwan Control Yuan President and National Human Rights Commission Chairperson Chen Chu 陳菊 (Chén Jú) invited to Berlin human rights day next month – Taipei Times 🇩🇪
Mike Bloomberg forced to apologise after Boris Johnson speech criticising China for being autocratic at Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore – The Guardian 🇬🇧
In Singapore durft men de Verenigde Staten makkelijker te bekritiseren, maar is openlijk China aanvallen moeilijker. Dat leidt tot onbalans in het publieke debat daar, als bijvoorbeeld bij de aanname van een wet tegen buitenlandse beïnvloeding alleen Amerika bij naam genoemd wordt. Het met ‘Asian Values’ opgevoede publiek is dan verward als in de praktijk Singapore op veiligheidsgebied zich wel bij de VS aansluit.
Lithuanian fare gaining ground in Taiwan – Taipei Times 🇱🇹
Tech War 💽
Minister voor buitenlandse handel Schreinemacher: „Chinese exportbeperking voor ASML alleen op eigen voorwaarden” – NRC: „Tot op dit moment reageerde Nederland niet publiekelijk op deze oproep. Maar Liesje Schreinemacher, die als minister van Buitenlandse Handel en Ontwikkelingssamenwerking ook over exportcontrole gaat, wil in gesprek met NRC wel bevestigen dat Nederland al twee jaar intensief spreekt met de Amerikanen over exportbeperkingen. Een deal is er nog niet, maar zou binnen enkele maanden bereikt kunnen zijn. Nederland wil de exportbeperking wel aanscherpen maar doet dat op eigen voorwaarden, benadrukt Schreinemacher. ,De VS kunnen ons niet dwingen.’” 🇳🇱
Vergeet ook niet het stuk over Amerikaanse druk op zwijgend Nederland over ASML in het FD vrijdag.
The US shouldn’t expect the Netherlands to unquestionably adopt its approach to China export restrictions, Dutch trade minister official warns – Bloomberg: ‘Without getting specific, Schreinemacher said that the Netherlands is likely to introduce certain export controls on China by itself. The Dutch government needs more time to decide on potential new rules, she said.’ 🇳🇱
China boos op Britten om dwarsbomen ‘Chinees’ Nexperia – FD 🇳🇱
Chinees-Nederlands bedrijf Nexperia strijdt met VK in chipoorlog – De Volkskrant: „Het Chinese protest is ‘niet handig’, zegt een woordvoerder van Nexperia. Het hoofdkantoor in Nijmegen benadrukte in een persbericht woensdag juist de Nederlandse wortels van het bedrijf.” 🇳🇱
ASML to offer NT$1.6m [~€50k] starting pay at its sites in Taiwan – Taipei Times 🇳🇱
Tech war: China’s chip talent pool will lag far behind the 789,000 people needed by 2024, report says – SCMP
As Apple reassesses China supply chain risks, Chinese suppliers also assess if it is a blessing or curse to be too reliant on US tech giant – SCMP
How the US-Chinese technology war is changing the world – Agathe Demarais for Foreign Policy
APEC 🇹🇭
Macron sets sights on France-ASEAN dialogue partnership – Nikkei Asia 🇫🇷
As US and China vie to win over Asia-Pacific, France warns of need for ‘single global order’ – SCMP 🇫🇷
Europe is finding its footing in carving out a middle ground when it comes to China – Bloomberg 🇪🇺
Taiwan’s APEC rep met China’s Xi, talked chips with Harris – Reuters: ‘Speaking to reporters in Bangkok, Morris Chang, also the founder of Taiwanese chip giant TSMC (2330.TW), said he had talked to Xi on Friday. “We asked after each, and I congratulated him on the success of the Communist Party’s 20th Congress,” Chang said’ 🇹🇼🇨🇳
US Vice President Kamala Harris briefly met Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 on Saturday in Bangkok, a White House official said, as leaders of the world’s biggest economies continue to cool tensions – Bloomberg 🇺🇸🇨🇳
Xi Jinping says China to consider holding Belt & Road Forum in 2023 – Reuters 🇨🇳
President Xi invites Chile’s Boric to China in 2023 – Reuters 🇨🇳🇨🇱
China-Philippines relations: Marcos looks to Beijing visit and expanding ties after meeting Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 on Apec sidelines – SCMP 🇨🇳🇵🇭
China and Japan to move quickly on maritime and air security hotline – Caixin Global 🇨🇳🇯🇵
China and Japan plan fresh round of economic talks after Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 and Kishida Fumio 岸田 文雄’s meeting – SCMP 🇨🇳🇯🇵
Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 and Péng Lìyuán 彭丽媛 meet with Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn and Queen Suthida – Xinhua 🇨🇳🇹🇭
Scope for Singapore-China cooperation very wide, says PM Lee Hsien Loong 李显龙 – The Straits Times 🇸🇬🇨🇳
APEC expects stability, says Taiwan envoy 張忠謀 (Zhāng Zhōngmóu) – Taipei Times 🇹🇼
TSMC founder Morris Chang 張忠謀 (Zhāng Zhōngmóu), serving as Taiwan’s envoy, speaks with Blinken at APEC gala – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼🇺🇸
Taiwan envoy TSMC founder Morris Chang 張忠謀 (Zhāng Zhōngmóu) and Japan prime minister Kishida Fumio 岸田 文雄 hold bilateral talks during APEC – Focus Taiwan 🇹🇼🇯🇵
Chinese President Xi Jinping has never expressed interest in a military base in Papua New Guinea, the nation’s leader said – Bloomberg 🇵🇬🇨🇳
Xi’s overseas trip demonstrates China’s commitment to global growth and governance – Xinhua
Covid 🦠
Mainland China reported its first official Covid death in nearly six months on Sunday as the virus outbreak in the country continues unabated – Bloomberg
‘We’re not ready’: threat of Covid exit wave stymies China’s reopening – FT: ‘The warning for China’s leader was delivered by a dozen health professionals — including frontline doctors and nurses and local government health officials — interviewed by the Financial Times this month, and echoed by international experts.’
China may have significantly eased the way it responds to Covid outbreaks, but some major cities still barely move when the virus is spreading – Bloomberg: ‘even with fewer hardcore restrictions, China’s major cities are likely to see roughly the same hit to mobility and activity whenever outbreaks flare, dampening hopes of a boost to the country’s economy after the easing of its strict Covid Zero regime.’
In Depth: What’s next for China’s covid vaccine strategy? – Caixin Global: ‘China’s booster vaccination campaign is slowing. The country began offering booster shots to residents in the second half of 2021. The booster rate rose to 40.1% in February this year and reached 55% in July. As of Oct. 7, the booster rate was only 57%, which basically means the drive has stalled in the past few months, Caixin has learned.’
Flights to China still lag demand despite easing of some covid restrictions, sources say – Caixin Global
Beijing district Chaoyang urges staying home for weekend as COVID cases rise – Reuters
Chinese city Guangzhou plans 250,000 quarantine beds to fight virus – AP
China’s foreign companies brace for new COVID curbs as cases soar – Nikkei Asia
Coronavirus: how Chinese are coping with zero-Covid panic and confusion – SCMP
In Shijiazhuang, de proeftuin van het nieuwe Chinese covidbeleid: „Mensen vrezen niet het virus, maar een nieuwe lockdown” – De Volkskrant
De politiestaat China is door de coronarestricties vele malen sterker geworden – De Volkskrant podcast
Klimaat ☀️
COP27 negotiators reached a last-minute deal to create a loss and damage fund without a single objection – Bloomberg: ‘On loss and damage, countries agreed that the most vulnerable nations would be prioritized, and high emitters like China and India may also be able to contribute to the fund.’
Bedroevend slot van klimaattop Egypte: „Geen antwoord als eilandstaatjes worden verzwolgen” – NRC: „Sommige landen, waaronder China en Saoedi-Arabië, wilden de anderhalve graad helemaal uit de slotverklaring schrappen, maar als dat zou gebeuren dreigde de Europese Unie op te stappen.” „China, Saoedi-Arabië en Qatar houden vast aan hun status als ontwikkelingsland, die ze in het VN-klimaatverdrag hebben. Formeel zouden zij dus ook uit het fonds kunnen putten.”
EU climate finance proposal upends COP27 talks – POLITICO Europe: ‘The EU move deepened schisms with China — which insists on being treated as a developing country when it comes to paying for climate change.’ 🇪🇺
China’s climate envoy Xiè Zhènhuá 解振华 praises ‘constructive’ US talks – AFP: ‘rejecting the idea that China should no longer be considered a developing country, though it is now the world’s second-biggest economy.’
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Top Pentagon official warns Middle East partners to limit China ties – Axios
China says open to meeting with US defence secretary – Reuters
Top US House Republican McCarthy plans special committee on China – Reuters
China should be stabilising force in Asia, says Singapore defence minister Ng Eng Hen 黄永宏 during Xi'an visit – The Straits Times
What data tells us about the strategy driving China’s border incursions – Ananth Krishnan for The India China Newsletter
China hits back at FBI claim of unauthorised ‘police stations’ in US – The Guardian: ‘China’s embassy in Washington acknowledged the existence of volunteer-run sites in the United States, but said they were not “police stations” or “police service centers”.’
Het gaat niet om het feit of de mensen daar formeel in dienst zijn van de officiële Chinese politie en of ze ook nuttige dingen doen, maar o.a. de repressie waarbij ze betrokken zouden zijn.
Toronto businessman allegedly focus of Chinese interference probes, according to sources – Global News: ‘The Canadian Security Intelligence Service has investigated Wei Chengyi for his alleged role in a covert scheme that facilitated large-fund transfers meant to advance Beijing’s interests in Canada’s 2019 federal election, sources said.’
PM Jacinda Ardern says she must be able to raise concerns in Xi Jinping meeting without ‘retaliatory acts’ – The Guardian
How the rivalry between America and China worries South-East Asia – The Economist: ‘In that context, regional strategists are alarmed by the American shift in rhetoric. They think the Biden administration has gone too far.’
Planned Hong Kong international mediation centre to bolster China’s influence in Africa – SCMP
China economie en tech
US watchdog gained ‘good access’ to audits of US-listed Chinese firms, sources say – Reuters
Foreigners join speculative China stocks frenzy – FT: ‘even cautious US investors placing record bets via options just in case a path develops out of the country’s property crisis and zero-Covid malaise.’
A bullish consensus for Chinese shares is emerging on Wall Street – Bloomberg
China recruits villagers to restore Foxconn’s iPhone production after staff exodus – FT
China’s weak GDP growth ‘cannot continue’, Beijing’s economic advisers warn at Caixin Summit – SCMP
China meets with US firms including ExxonMobil, Boeing and Cargill as it seeks to restore market confidence – SCMP
Another blow for China’s battered consumer exports to the US in October – SCMP
Shanghai’s housing market slump to worsen as wealthy owners cash out and leave mainland China on fears of worsening economy – SCMP
Caixin Summit: Overconfidence about renewables contributed to China’s power crunch last year, ex-PBOC chief Zhōu Xiǎochuān 周小川 says – Caixin Gobal
China’s inability to source its massive iron ore requirements elsewhere have saved Australian exports, but consumer facing sectors are struggling – Bloomberg
IMF waarschuwt dat handelsbarrières tegen China veel geld kosten – ANP
China binnenland
With Chinese local governments’ vital total land-related income down nearly 30% in the first nine months of 2022, they have been getting creative with setting up companies – WSJ
China debt: local government ‘land grabs’ raise concerns amid tumbling fiscal revenues – SCMP
The number of people with technocratic backgrounds in strategically important areas among the Chinese Communist Party elite has more than doubled to nearly 40% – WSJ
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Australia clarifies stance on Taiwan CPTPP bid, says foreign ministry – Focus Taiwan
Reactie op deze onjuiste uitspraak van premier Albanese over regels CPTPP:
Albanese says Australia is unlikely to support Taiwan’s push to join Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership – ABC News
Panda Tuan Tuan gifted by China to Taiwan dies of old age – AFP
De twee panda’s die China aan Taiwan gaf tijdens het presidentschap van de Chinese nationalist Ma Ying-jeou 馬英九 (Mǎ Yīngjiǔ) heetten Tuan Tuan 團團 en Yuan Yuan 圓圓. In het Chinees betekent tuányuán (團圓) ‘familiereünie’. Alles is politiek. Het ziektebed en overlijden van Tuan Tuan wordt ook al gebruikt door de Chinese propaganda om de zorg voor Taiwan en de expertise van ‘het Vasteland’ tentoon te stellen. Ondertussen is het symbolische overlijden van de panda ook voer voor complottheoriëen.
Listen to Xi Jinping about Taiwan – Lyle Morris for War on the Rocks: ‘In this latest document, Xi signaled more continuity than change over China’s overall approach to Taiwan. Most importantly, he did not signal a heightened sense of urgency to “solve” the Taiwan issue using military means.’
The changing paradigms of Taiwan’s grand strategy – Philip Hsu for the Jamestown China Brief
China’s efforts to lure Taiwanese fade with deepening distrust and a slowing economy – SCMP
Taiwan binnenland
As local government elections loom, parties hold major rallies – Focus Taiwan
Anti-government rumours run rampant ahead of local elections – Taipei Times
KMT Taipei mayoral candidate Chiang Wan-an 蔣萬安 (Jiǎng Wàn'ān)’s ‘Silicon Valley’ experience raises doubts, say critics – Taipei Times
Pan-Blue supporters critical of public KMT support push against referendum lowering voting age from 20 to 18 – Taipei Times
Taiwan votes: Will it herald a budding return to power for KMT? – The Straits Times
Taiwan’s local polls—small issues, big impact – The Straits Times: ‘“At the local elections, voters don’t really care about party identification. They care more about personalities and the competency of specific candidates,” said Professor Wang Yeh-lih, another National Taiwan University political scientist.’
Do-or-die moment for Taiwan’s grand old party – The Straits Times: ‘With just 3 per cent of its members under the age of 40, and China-friendly policy ideas that are unpopular among the youth, the KMT has already been perceived by some observers as facing political irrelevance—at least at the national level.’ ‘“Recent history has shown us that the local elections do not necessarily predict future election results. Having said that, the KMT must still perform well this year, or it will really be on weak standing in 2024,” said National Taiwan University political expert, Professor Wang Yeh-lih.’
campaign trail: KMT in Taichung – Frozen Garlic: ‘The dominant trend this year is the power of incumbency. KMT mayors were swept into office all over Taiwan four years ago in the enormous KMT wave. That wave has long since subsided, and it turns out that Han Kuo-yu had not unlocked a powerful new formula for how to talk about the challenges Taiwanese voters face. Nevertheless, a big cohort of KMT mayors was left in office with an opportunity to govern. The dominant political cleavage has to do with attitudes toward China, which doesn’t necessarily have much to do with local politics. In the USA, there are clear differences in how Republicans and Democrats approach local politics since the two sides have ideological biases toward things like taxation, bureaucracy, and social welfare. However, there are not abstract KMT ways or DPP ways to pave the roads or build social housing. In purely local affairs, there is no reason that the KMT can’t perform just as well as the DPP. And apparently, the cohort of KMT mayors running for re-election this year has done a pretty good job. Most of them are pretty popular, and most seem on track to be re-elected.’
KMT councillor accuses DPP members of ties to money laundering suspects – Taipei Times
Law to combat economic espionage takes effect – Taipei Times
Kaohsiung outlet China VTV spread ‘Chinese propaganda’ online, authorities allege – Taipei Times
Tens of thousands attend Kaohsiung Pride parade highlighting empathy – Focus Taiwan