De Chinese Wouden, maandag 21 augustus: Chinese economie, Japan en Zuid-Korea in Camp Davis
Het belangrijkste structurele nieuws blijven de zorgen over het Chinese economische model. Ik heb het in deze nieuwsbrief in twee stukken opgedeeld: bovenaan een paar excellente algemene stukken en de lawine aan individueel nieuws op de normale plek.
De belangrijkste gebeurtenis zijn de Camp Davis Principles die de leiders van de Verenigde Staten, Japan en Zuid-Korea hebben aangenomen tijdens hun top. Dit is de culminatie van een structurele geopolitieke verschuiving in de Indo-Pacific. Vooral de Zuid-Koreaanse president heeft hard moeten werken. Deze trilaterale samenwerking klinkt misschien logisch voor buitenstaanders. De anti-Japanse stemming en hoop op de diplomatieke en economische speelruimte die China aan Seoel zou kunnen bieden, hebben het voor Zuid-Korea echter altijd erg moeilijk gemaakt. Ook in Tokio is het vertrouwen in Seoel niet altijd even groot. Vraag blijft hoe dit gaat beklijven, helemaal als over een paar jaar de meer nationalistische linkse/progressieve partij weer aan de macht zou komen in Zuid-Korea.
Huawei was op bezoek in Afghanistan. Veel Duits nieuws vandaag. Veel ander nieuws ook. Te veel.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
Dutch IC equipment supplier ASM International opens training center in Tainan – Focus Taiwan: ‘Guido Tielman, head of the Netherlands Office Taipei, said his country and Taiwan have played a critical role in the development of the global semiconductor industry and have built long-term exchanges as strategic partners.’ 🇳🇱
Biden plan to curb China investments focuses EU minds as deadline looms – SCMP: ‘While there is no immediate strategy to replicate US President Joe Biden’s plan, there is some relief among senior [European] officials that it is “much narrower” than expected.’ 🇪🇺
China: Wie Wirtschaftsminister Robert Habeck (Grüne) den Einfluss der Volksrepublik begrenzen will – Handelsblatt: „Habeck will die Regelungen für die Prüfung ausländischer Investitionen in Deutschland massiv erweitern.“ 🇩🇪
German economy minister Robert Habeck (Grüne) wants tighter foreign investment controls amid China ‘de-risking’ – Reuters 🇩🇪
German minister Robert Habeck (Grüne) proposes tougher rules on Chinese foreign direct investment – FT: ‘Businesses and investors from outside the EU are already subjected to a screening process when buying assets in the country, […]. But Habeck’s proposals would aim to simplify and consolidate an array of existing rules.’ 🇩🇪
Time to cut back on Huawei, German interior minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) tells telecoms giants – POLITICO Europe 🇩🇪
Faeser (SPD) rüffelt die Telekom wegen Huawei – Handelsblatt 🇩🇪
Germany must pull away from China, top economic adviser Monika Schnitzer warns – The Telegraph: ‘The economist urged Berlin to cut ties with China in “security relevant places”.’ 🇩🇪
China-France relations: Beijing eager to make up for lost time after Covid pandemic – SCMP 🇫🇷
Chinese and French foreign ministers hold phone talks on deepening bilateral cooperation – Xinhua: ‘She stressed that France and Europe will adhere to strategic autonomy, oppose global fragmentation, do not accept decoupling and disruption of industrial and supply chains and hope to build a multipolar, balanced and peaceful world.’ 🇫🇷
Full text: Green Joint Work Programme between governments of China and Denmark for 2023-2026 – Xinhua 🇩🇰
Hong Kong freedoms continued to erode in 2022, despite promises, EU says in annual report – Reuters 🇪🇺
Hong Kong: Annual EU report illustrates further decline of fundamental freedoms – European Commission 🇪🇺
Zorgen Chinese economie 🇨🇳📉
💡 China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? – WSJ:
China’s boom was underpinned by unusually high levels of domestic investment in infrastructure and other hard assets, which accounted for about 44% of GDP each year on average between 2008 and 2021. That compared with a global average of 25% and around 20% in the U.S., according to World Bank data.
Such heavy spending was made possible in part by a system of “financial repression” in which state banks set deposit rates low [en salarissen door onderdrukking laag werden gehouden], which meant they could raise funds inexpensively and fund building projects. China added tens of thousands of miles of highways, hundreds of airports, and the world's largest network of high-speed trains.
Over time, however, evidence of overbuilding became apparent.
[…]
The most obvious solution, economists say, would be for China to shift toward promoting consumer spending and service industries, which would help create a more balanced economy that more resembles those of the U.S. and Western Europe. Household consumption makes up only about 38% of GDP in China, relatively unchanged in recent years, compared with around 68% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.
[…]
Xi and some of his lieutenants remain suspicious of U.S.-style consumption, which they see as wasteful at a time when China's focus should be on bolstering its industrial capabilities and girding for potential conflict with the West, people with knowledge of Beijing’s decision-making say.
The leadership also worries that empowering individuals to make more decisions over how they spend their money could undermine state authority, without generating the kind of growth Beijing desires.
De vijf plagen van de Chinese economie: een crisis in slowmotion – de Volkskrant: Jeugdwerkloosheid, Vastgoed, Schuldenberg, Deflatie, Politiek
China’s housing slump is much worse than official data shows – Bloomberg: ‘While it’s difficult to make apples-to-apples comparisons, industry insiders and economists say China’s official home-price indexes are likely understating the depth of the downturn, in part because of longstanding methodologies that struggle to capture market turning points.’
Chinese statistieken zijn altijd al onbetrouwbaar geweest, maar hoe politieker de situatie hoe minder betrouwbaar ze nog worden. Daarbij komt ook kijken dat – zoals het artikel uitlegt – het ontwerp van de manier van dataverzameling al politieke prioriteiten bevat die de indicatoren minder betrouwbaar maakt.
‘Can’t sleep at night’: China’s youth worry about tough job market – AFP
What’s Behind the Youth Unemployment Statistics Beijing Just Decided to Stop Publishing? A Q&A with Eli Friedman – China File: ‘the number that is always cited, the 21 percent unemployment figure, is for all 16-to-24-year-olds.’ ‘[…], actually, the majority of these people did not go to university, and they’re still not getting jobs.’
De meeste internationale pers schrijft over de hoogopgeleide stedelijke jongeren. Maar Friedman wijst terecht op het feit dat de echte problemen elders zitten. De beruchte cijfers die nu niet meer gepubliceerd worden, gaan niet eens echt over hen: in die leeftijd zitten ze nog op de universiteit.
China’s Japanification – FT Alphaville: ‘The tl;dr is that JPMorgan’s economists see some spooky similarities between China today and Japan in the 1990s, but “enough differences to suggest the ‘balance sheet recession’ diagnosis, and policy recommendations that flow from it, is/are not correct”. That said, there are some aspects they highlight that actually look worse in China (a lot worse in some cases)’
Whither China? Part III: Policy hubris and the end of infallibility –
: ‘If Xi’s regime had not emerged so self-confident from the initial success of its COVID policy in early 2020, if it had deferred its high-risk plan to deflate the housing bubble until after COVD was brought under control around the world, […], China would not have faced the devastating confluence of recessionary tendencies that have dealt it such a blow in 2022 and 2023.’VS-Japan-ZuidKorea 🇺🇸🇯🇵🇰🇷
VS, Japan en Zuid-Korea kondigen nauwere samenwerking aan en bekritiseren China op topontmoeting – NRC
At Camp David, Biden hails ‘new era of partnership’ between US, South Korea, and Japan – POLITICO: ‘To gird against political changes in any of the three countries, the agreement commits each country to annual meetings and military exercises, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said earlier Friday.’
The Spirit of Camp David: Joint Statement of Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States – The White House: ‘We will hold trilateral meetings between our leaders, foreign ministers, defense ministers, and national security advisors at least annually’
Noemt ook samenwerking op gebied van leveringsketens en technologie.
Camp David Principles – The White House
As Indo-Pacific nations, Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the United States will continue to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific based on a respect for international law, shared norms, and common values. We strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion.
[…]
We reaffirm the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity in the international community. Recognizing that there is no change in our basic positions on Taiwan, we call for a peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues.
Korea-kenner Robert E. Kelly merkt op Twitter terecht op dat niet alleen China een rol speelt, maar ook de Zuid-Koreaanse binnenlandse politiek. Nu zijn de meer internationalistische conservatieven aan de macht, maar wat als straks de meer nationalistische progressieve vleugel de macht terugwint? President Moon Jae-in gaf erg veel aan Noord-Korea en probeerde China te vriend te houden.
US President Biden to sign strategic partnership deal with Vietnam in latest bid to counter China in the region – POLITICO
Net als de uitgebreide militaire samenwerking van de VS met de Filipijnen is dit onderdeel van dezelfde krachten die Washington, Tokio en Seoel bij elkaar hebben gebracht.
Chinese reactie op reis Lai 🇹🇼🇨🇳
China doet militaire oefeningen rond Taiwan, in reactie op bezoek Taiwanese vice-president Lai Ching-te 赖清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP) aan VS – NRC
Taiwanese vicepresidenten hebben vaker zulke ‘stopover’-bezoeken gebracht aan de VS, maar nu reageert China sterker dan ooit.
25 Chinese warplanes cross Taiwan Strait median line, says defence ministry – Focus Taiwan (2023/08/20)
China sends dozens of warplanes near Taiwan after vice-president Lai Ching-te 赖清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP)’s US stopover – AFP (2023/08/19)
Taiwan’s Presidential Office accuses China of trying to influence elections through military drills – Focus Taiwan: ‘It is a long-standing practice for Taiwan's presidents and vice presidents to have stopovers in the U.S., and China should not use this as a pretext for its provocations, the office said.’
Taiwans verkiezingen zijn het belangrijkste doelwit – dat blijkt ook uit de golf aan desinformatie die eerder al kwam rondom de trip. Maar de onderstaande top tussen de leiders van de VS, Japan en Zuid-Korea zal ook meespelen bij het ongemakkelijk maken van Peking.
Tech War 💽💥
Biden order could hit Chinese VC firms run by Americans – The Information
TSMC installs first EUV machine, supplied by ASML, in US; job opening ads posted – Focus Taiwan
Japan moves to build China-free EV battery supply chain – The China Global South Project
China’s quest for self-reliance risks choking innovation – Yu Jie for FT
China’s small independent developers see local innovation being stifled by Beijing’s new app registration rule – SCMP: ‘the new regulation aims to clamp down on rampant scams online’
A subsidy-fueled boom helped turn China into an electric-car giant. But these auto graveyards reveal the dark side of the EV shift – Bloomberg: ‘The scenes recall the aftermath of the nation’s bike-sharing crash in 2018’
Kantelpunt 🌏⏱️
China urges Brics to become geopolitical rival to G7 – FT: ‘Tensions are mounting over whether the Brics should be a non-aligned club for the economic interests of developing countries, or a political force that openly challenges the west, said people briefed on India and China’s positions.’
China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 to attend BRICS leaders’ meeting, visit South Africa – Reuters
Brics-landen zijn verdeeld over uitbreiding in aanloop naar top – FD
‘The opening of the German Embassy in the Republic of #Fiji testifies to 🇩🇪 determination to deepen our relations & friendship with 🇫🇯. Our commitment to the #Pacific is longterm. Vinaka vaka levu @slrabuka @FijiGovernment @Fiji_MOFA for your support & hospitality.’ – Special Envoy Beate Grzeski, Twitter
The head of one of China’s top oil firms raises the prospect that oil demand might top out this year – Bloomberg
China doesn’t compartmentalise – Taehwa Hong for Foreign Policy: ‘compartmentalization with China is fundamentally futile as long as Beijing continues to engage in what it has referred to as “unrestricted warfare,”’ ‘China’s inclination for unrestricted warfare is not just a product of its unique ambition to reinstate a Sino-centric global system. It is also the result of the international system’s structure.’
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
In Tanzania, Beijing is running a training school for authoritarianism – Axios
US President Biden still expects to meet China’s Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 later this year – AFP
Huawei pledges advanced camera system under Taliban – IPVM: ‘Huawei representatives met with an official (Abdullah Mukhtar) of Afghanistan’s Ministry of Interior (MOI), which oversees law enforcement, according to a MOI image tweeted by Taliban’
Chinese NGO fixes eyes while helping state-owned companies build community ties overseas – SCMP
US, Japan and Australia plan joint navy drills in disputed South China Sea, Philippine officials say – AP: ‘The Philippines would not be part of this week’s drills due to military logistical limitations but is open to becoming a participant in the future, the official said.’
China using ‘political operators’ to divide Philippines on West Philippine Sea [South China Sea], says National Security Council – The Inquirer
Dezelfde woordkeuze voor ‘cognitive warfare’ als in Taiwan.
A new Chinese runway in the Paracels? Probably not – CSIS AMTI
AMTI is het niet eens met de recent analyse van AP.
Negotiations are underway for Australia to host China’s foreign minister for high-level government talks – Bloomberg
Rahul Gandhi (INC) says China grabbed grazing land in Ladakh; BJP calls it propaganda – Hindustan Times
China economie
China local governments allowed to sell CN¥1.5 trillion [€189b] of special financing bonds to repay debt – Bloomberg
Chinese local governments tap public funds to ease risks from small and midsize banks – Nikkei Asia
De penibele financiële situatie van de lokale overheden is een van de belangrijkste zorgpunten.
China stresses more financial support for real economy, defusing debt risks – Xinhua
Evergrande 恒大 shows China property ‘zombification’: 5 things to know – Nikkei Asia
China’s Country Garden 碧桂园 to propose delaying CN¥3.9b [€490m] debt redemption – Nikkei Asia
Chinese buildings go unfinished as cash crunch hits local developers – Nikkei Asia
Copper and nickel lose shine in China’s construction slump – Nikkei Asia
China’s property downturn spreads to trophy office buildings – Nikkei Asia
Don’t Worry about Food Imports (unless we tell you to) – Dim Sums: ‘Softening the rhetoric on food imports may be an attempt to head off criticism for failing to keep promises to guarantee the food supply.’
China binnenland
Signs of Chinese President Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 delegating more to hand-picked deputies at start of third term – SCMP
Ene lezing: hij heeft nu zijn mensen te plek en durft het beter aan te delegeren. Cynische lezing: nu dingen slechter gaan, verschuilt hij zich meer achter anderen, net zoals Li Keqiang aan het begin verantwoordelijk werd gemaakt voor de net uitgebroken coronapandemie.
China makes it harder for its Muslim citizens to go to Mecca, or anywhere else – NPR
Hikvision still sells Uyghur-tracking surveillance cameras, and they use Nvidia chips – The China Project
China is suddenly dealing with another public health crisis: mpox – MIT Technology Review: ‘The WHO, though, lumps together the case counts from Taiwan, which has its own government and CDC, and Hong Kong under the name of China.’
‘So far, some local LGBTQ communities in China feel they’re on their own.’ ‘the CDC recommended wastewater monitoring specifically near venues that MSM communities frequent, including bars, clubs, and saunas.’
China’s top court finds ‘picking quarrels and provoking trouble’ charge ‘excessively’ used – SCMP
Hong Kong
In Hongkong durven leraren alleen letterlijk voor te lezen wat ze van de overheid krijgen – NRC
National security police question Hong Kong woman over alleged links to wanted activist Nathan Law – HKFP
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an 蔣萬安 [Jiǎng Wàn'ān] (KMT) to attend Shanghai-Taipei Forum in China – Taipei Times
Taiwan urges China not to ‘politicise’ trade issues with investigation after Beijing threatened to end preferential tariffs – Focus Taiwan
Commerce ministry says Taiwan trade restrictions on Chinese products suspected of violating WTO rules – Xinhua
Beijing hints at changing trade pact with Taiwan amid probe into tariffs – SCMP
Nog een drukmiddel van Peking om te proberen de Taiwanese verkiezingen van januari 2024 te beïnvloeden.
Prosecutors opt not to indict Chinese executives Xiàng Xīn 向心 and Kung Ching 龔青 [Gōng Qīng] in national security case due to lack of evidence – Focus Taiwan: ‘The couple was also acquitted of the money laundering charge by the Taipei District Court in February 2022’
2 charged with accepting money from Chinese state security services – Focus Taiwan: ‘worked in concert with members of the People’s Armed Police to recruit serving members of Taiwan's armed forces to spy for China.’
Taipei and Washington start 2nd round of trade talks, in Washington – Taipei Times
Taiwan to host cyberdefence exercises – Taipei Times
Taiwan verkiezingen
Taiwan details China drills, Vice President Lai Ching-te 賴清德 [Lài Qīngdé] (DPP) says election not China’s to call – Reuters: ‘Taiwan’s election next year is a choice between democracy and autocracy, Vice President William Lai said’
DPP China policy is confrontation, not peace: KMT – Taipei Times: ‘Next year’s presidential election is a choice between peace or war, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers said yesterday.’
Protesters in Taipei demand urgent action to improve road safety – Focus Taiwan
Key politicians Terry Gou 郭台銘, Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP), Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 (KMT), and Lai Ching-te 賴清德 (DPP) sign pedestrian pledge – Taipei Times
Terry Gou 郭台銘 invites Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 (TPP) and Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 (KMT) for talks on cooperation to defeat DPP’s Lai Ching-te 賴清德 – Taipei Times
Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 [Kē Wénzhé]’s Taiwan People’s Party hits turbulence – Courtney Donovan Smith
【賴蕭配有譜】擔綱賴清德政策主控手 鄭麗君角逐新國會龍頭呼聲高 – 上報:「2024總統大選,民進黨正副總統參選人搭檔,以賴清德搭配駐美大使蕭美琴『賴蕭配』呼聲最高,黨內高層也認為『賴蕭配』外,前文化部長鄭麗君也有呼聲。」
Speculatie over twee mogelijke DPP-kandidaten voor vicepresident naast Lai Ching-te: vertegenwoordiger in Washington Hsiao Bi-khim en voormalige cultuurminister Cheng Li-chun.
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Assets taken from the KMT by the Ill-gotten Party Assets Settlement Committee so far include NT$53 billion [€1.5b] and 136,000m2 of land generating NT$50 [€1.4b] million in combined rent each year – Taipei Times
Hoeveel Nederlandse politieke partijen zouden een paar miljard kunnen verliezen zonder failliet te gaan?
Taiwan’s semiconductor output forecast to fall 12.7% in 2023 – Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s manufacturing output down for 3rd straight quarter in Q2 – Focus Taiwan
Suspects detained in Hualien for scam operation targeting Chinese – Tapei Times
Escaped Taiwanese drug lord ran trafficking ops from Cambodia prison – RFA