De Chinese Wouden, maandag 19 december, centrale conferentie economisch werk, geopolitiek messenslijperij
Vandaag is er een aparte sectie over de Centrale Conferentie voor Economisch Werk van de CCP. Economische stabiliteit krijgt de volle aandacht. Een stuk van de WSJ, dat ik nog gemist had voor mijn economische slechtnieuwsrubriek op vrijdag, zegt dat de waarschijnlijke economietsaar Hé Lìfēng 何立峰 bezig is met een plan voor meer dan 5% officiële economische groei in het komende jaar. Dat cijfer zal te halen zijn na krimp en met de gebruikelijke magie. Open blijft de vraag of de structurele problemen die de conferentie aanstipt op te lossen zijn – huizenmarkt, onderconsumptie, demografie, krimpende maakindustrie.
We kunnen ons nu wel willen richten op het herstel ná de pandemie, maar die pandemie is ondertussen nog volop aan de gang. Het Chinese gezondheidssysteem is in normale omstandigheden al precair, dus dat het nu in de vangrails vliegt, is niet zo bijzonder – hoewel niet minder tragisch. De dodenaantallen zullen nog oplopen, net zoals dat elders gebeurde. Onzeker is nog, hoe veel erger het relatieve dodenaantal in China zal zijn dankzij de al vaker genoemde tekortkomingen en hoe erg de economische impact zal zijn. Het wordt een koude winter.
Ondertussen zijn de Indo-Pacificische landen hun messen verder aan het slijpen. Over Japans nieuwe defensiebeleid berichtte ik al eerder. De nieuwe defensiewet van de VS heeft ook een techwar-consequentie. Uit Taiwan komt achtergrondnieuws over raketten die na aangeven zelfs Peking kunnen bereiken. Volgens The Telegraph zijn schermutselingen tussen India en China frequenter dan in de pers komt. En het hoofdredactioneel commentaar van de NRC maant, net als de Taiwanese regering, tot voorzichtigheid rondom TikTok.
De geschiedenis versnelt nog altijd.
Nederland en Europa 🇳🇱🇪🇺
German telcos ups reliance on Huawei for 5G despite security fears, according to survey – Reuters: ‘“If this attitude continues, we will need to tighten the legal framework,” the SPD spokesperson for digital policy said.’ 🇩🇪
Chinese foreign minister calls for deepening China-CEEC cooperation – Xinhua 🇪🇺
China’s waning influence in Southeast Europe – Igor Rogelja for East Asia Forum: ‘It’s not just old projects fading out—few new projects have been announced in recent years.’ 🇪🇺
Qatar lobbyt ook via schimmige vriendengroep in Europees Parlement – De Standaard: „Hoeveel vriendschapsgroepen er zijn, is niet eens duidelijk: ‘Er bestaat geen lijst, formeel bestaan ze zelfs niet’, zegt een bron in het Europees Parlement. Af en toe lekt iets uit in de media. Zo bestaat er ook een vriendschapsgroep met Bahrein en met Azerbeidzjan. In 2013 was er een met Marokko, maar of die nog bestaat is onduidelijk. Hetzelfde geldt voor de groep vrienden van China binnen het EP.” 🇪🇺
European Parliament trade delegation to arrive in Taipei – Taipei Times 🇪🇺
China Central Economic Work Conference 📈
China Focus: China holds Central Economic Work Conference to plan for 2023 – Xinhua: ‘The meeting demanded making economic stability a top priority and pursuing steady progress while ensuring economic stability for the next year.’
‘proactive fiscal policy should be stepped up for its effectiveness’
‘The country will optimize childbirth support policies and seek to gradually postpone the statutory retirement age when time is right and take the initiative to cope with population aging and low fertility rate’
‘Efforts will also be made to speed up the planning and construction of a new energy system’
‘Sticking to the principle that “housing is for living in, not for speculation,” the country is seeking to promote a smooth transition of the real estate industry to new development models, according to the meeting.’
China expected to boost world economic recovery in 2023 – Xinhua: ‘China has also pledged to further expand domestic demand and to give full play to the fundamental role of consumption and the key role of investment in 2023’
China puts zero Covid behind it with ‘new phase’ of living with the virus – SCMP: ‘Without saying specifically that the era of zero Covid is over, the announcement marks the end of three years in which the top priority was to prevent infections at all cost.’
The Chinese government is shifting back to growth mode, as a rapid deterioration in economic conditions prompts officials to focus on development – WSJ: ‘He Lifeng, who was added to the Communist Party’s top policy-making body, the Politburo, at a party conclave in October, is drafting a growth plan of more than 5% for next year, according to people familiar with the matter.’
China covid 🦠
Coronadoden heeft Peking officieel niet, toch draaien de crematoria overuren – Trouw
Covid raast door Peking: „Iedereen blijft thuis” – FD
Coronamaatregelen in Chinese miljoenenstad Shanghai opnieuw aangescherpt wegens stijgend aantal besmettingen – VRT Nieuws
Reports of Beijing covid deaths fuel speculation China covering up data – Bloomberg
Beijing funeral homes and crematoriums busy as COVID spreads – Reuters
De overvloed aan rapportages uit Peking is ook een reflectie van de aanwezigheid van buitenlandse correspondenten daar en de moeilijkheid om verslag te doen van wat zich daarbuiten afspeelt.
Streets deserted in China’s cities as new COVID surge looms – Reuters
Chinese industry runs out of workers and supplies as Covid wave spreads – FT: ‘Experts said factories would face worker shortages until February, after the lunar new year.’
Short on staff, some Chinese hospitals insist covid-infected workers get back on the job – Caixin Global
Coronavirus in China: medical students demand better pay and protection on Covid front line – SCMP
‘No ibuprofen, no aspirin, absolutely nothing’: China’s Covid patients feel the pain of drugs shortage – SCMP
China orders rural hospitals to brace for Covid-19 as millions expected to travel for Lunar New Year – SCMP
China military moves to protect troops from Covid-19 surge – SCMP
China’s Covid-19 patients face insurance battle over pandemic-related payouts – SCMP
China based Covid U-turn on big economic, social picture, top adviser Zēng Guāng 曾光 claims – SCMP
‘What was it for?’: the mental toll of China’s three years in Covid lockdowns – The Guardian
Law on my side: How Chinese are protesting against illegal local Covid-19 measures – Chi Yin for SCMP
Instagram is a site of protest for the Chinese diaspora – Wired
Nearly three weeks after protests against Covid controls erupted across China, some protesters remain detained and may face criminal charges – WSJ
Zeitentechwarwende ⏱️💽
In de chipoorlog met China is Amerika bezig aan een omsingeling, en is Nederland pion – De Volkskrant 🇳🇱
Commentaar: TikTok is een app die je beter niet kan vertrouwen – NRC: „De geopolitieke risico’s van TikTok vragen om een andere benadering, die wél speciaal gericht is op de app en zijn Chinese eigenaar.” 🇳🇱
US sees China as economic bully, seeks united front with allies – Nikkei Asia: ‘A team of specialists, drawn mainly from the National Security Council and National Economic Council, will be established within six months of the [National Defense Authorization Act] taking effect. This interagency team is charged with hammering out a strategy through talks with partners like Japan and the EU.’ 🇪🇺
Normally bellicose China’s meek response to US chip restrictions raises eyebrows – SCMP:
‘Beijing has a lot on its plate.’
‘A second possible factor behind China’s relatively muted response may be divisions among party and government officials and top industry executives’
‘A third, and potentially the most consequential, factor behind Chinese reticence may be China’s weak leverage.’
Hon Hai (Foxconn) unit to sell stake in Chinese chip firm Tsinghua Unigroup – Reuters: ‘Foxconn did not seek approval from the Taiwan government before the investment was made and authorities believe it violated a law governing the island’s relations with China’
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei 魏哲家 (Wèi Zhéjiā) says export controls weaken trust among countries – Bloomberg
‘No chance’ overseas fabs will blunt Taiwan’s semiconductor edge, says TSMC CEO C.C. Wei 魏哲家 (Wèi Zhéjiā) – Focus Taiwan
Overige
China buitenland en defensie
Japan vreest China en investeert 320 miljard in het leger: grootste herbewapening sinds 1945 – De Volkskrant
Japan komt met nieuwe defensiestrategie, wil budget leger verdubbelen – NOS
Japan approves new defence strategy to boost self-reliance – Nikkei Asia
US State Department launches ‘China House’ amid rivalry with Beijing – Reuters
Japan and US set up team to analyse info from drones near East China Sea – Kyodo News
China’s Liaoning carrier strike group makes show of force in western Pacific – SCMP
Explainer China’s Strategic Support Force: what do we know about the hi-tech military branch? – SCMP
Border clashes between India and China ‘regularly covered up’, according to senior Indian Army sources – The Telegraph
How well is China advancing its interests in Southeast Asia? – A ChinaFile Conversation with Gregory B. Poling, Sharon Seah Li-Lian, Daniel R. Russel, and Sophal Ear
Mixed report card: China’s influence at the United Nations – Courtney J. Fung and Shing-hon Lam for The Low Institute
Chinese fighter jets’ South American hopes grounded as Argentina pulls purchase plan – SCMP
Chinese ‘police centre’ in New Zealand tied to businessman – Newsroom
China must prepare for a Russia weakened by Ukraine war, Chinese analysts say – SCMP
China unveils compromise proposal in COP15 biodiversity talks – POLITICO Europe
China economie
As China seeks to live with the virus, covid-control industries face decline – Reuters
Nog een manier waarop het nieuwe covidbeleid de economie raakt.
In Depth: Why China’s exports are in the doldrums – Caixin Global
China’s Covid protests are not the whole reason for Apple’s move to India – Shaoshan Liu for SCMP
US firms in China will see ‘no light at the end of the tunnel’ in 2023, business council says – SCMP
China binnenland
Will a successor to Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 emerge from the Party’s seventh-generation leadership? – Willy Wo-Lap Lam for Jamestown China Brief
End of an era? Chinese official Wǔ Hào 伍皓 who blazed a trail on social media under investigation – SCMP
Hong Kong
Taiwan buitenland en defensie
Taiwan–China sea routes could resume after 3 years, maybe before Lunar New Year – SCMP
Taiwan to fine Hon Hai (Foxconn) for unauthorised China investment in Tsinghua Unigroup – Reuters
Taiwan’s military has a fertility problem: As China fears grow, its recruitment pool shrinks – CNN
Taiwan to boost east coast defences – Taipei Times
Taiwan fordert die Schweiz auf, „nicht auf der Seite Chinas zu kämpfen“ – Tages-Anzeiger
Taiwan has missiles able to hit Beijing, former head of island’s top weapons builder confirms – SCMP: ‘The island’s military has long declined to confirm the institute’s development of the long-range Yun Feng missile’ ‘Hsiung Feng 2E’
Ex-CSIST boss tells behind-the-scenes story of Taiwan’s missile development projects – Taipei Times
Taiwan binnenland en economie
Bills passed on pension reform, to affect new public workers – Focus Taiwan: ‘the bills require public workers to make contributions into individual accounts, instead of a common pension fund’
ByteDance Taiwan could have China links, says Mainland Affairs Council – Taipei Times
Incumbent KMT Chiayi mayor Huang Min-hui 黃敏惠 (Huáng Mǐnhuì) wins reelection in delayed vote – Taipei Times
Miaoli commissioner’s election could be overturned due to vote-buying charges – Taipei Times